Top Cubs Prospects Discussion
by neifiisgreat on Nov 14, 2009 9:24 AM CST
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PrintI haven't seen any recent discussion of the Cubs minor league season, and since 2009 is over, I figured it might be a good time to reevaluate our minor leaguers. I pulled the top 30 list from WrigleyBound, a Cubs prospect blog: http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-cubs-wrigley-bound/top-prospect-lists.html. I'll post their rankings and my own after the jump.
Wrigley Bound's Top 30 Prospects
1. Starlin Castro, SS, 19
2. Josh Vitters, 3B, 19
3. Andrew Cashner, SP, 22
4. Jay Jackson, SP, 21
5. Brett Jackson, OF, 21
6. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, 18
7. Chris Carpenter, SP, 23
8. Kyler Burke, RF, 21
9. Ryan Flaherty, IF, 23
10. Jeffry Antigua, SP, 19
11. DJ LeMahieu, IF, 21
12. Tyler Colvin, OF, 23
13. Chris Archer, SP, 21
14. John Gaub, RP, 24
15. Darwin Barney, SS, 23
16. Dae-Eun Rhee, SP, 20
17. Chris Rusin, SP, 23
18. Brooks Raley, SP, 21
19. Logan Watkins, 2B, 19
20. Blake Parker, RP, 25
21. Jeff Stevens, RP, 25
22. Austin Kirk, SP, 19
23. Chris Huseby, RP, 21
24. Marquez Smith, 3B, 24
25. James Adduci, CF, 24
26. Welington Castillo, C, 22
27. Junior Lake, SS, 20
28. Brandon Guyer, RF, 23
29. Steve Clevenger, C, 23
30. Tony Thomas, 2B, 23
My own list goes like this:
1. Vitters-While his plate discipline and defense are issues, reports are he has good work ethic, and the man can rake. He is still young, and 2010 will show us a lot about our recent top pick.
2. Castro-I don't believe the hype that he is a Hanley Ramirez/Derek Jeter type, it is pretty obvious that ESPN knows how to play to its audience. All that aside, he is very young, performing at a high level, and at a premium position. I just hope we don't dump him in a trade for Granderson or another flavor of the month, he could be helping the big league club by midseason, or 2011.
3. Cashner-It looks like the effort to turn him from reliever to starter is paying dividends, while I'm not sure he will stick there long term, he can help the club as a starter or reliever.
4. Jay Jackson-Another young pitcher not too far off from a cup of coffee, he is athletic and produced when he moved up a level.
5. H. Lee-A very young Korean import, scouts liked him better than Castro coming into last year. While he is pretty far away from Wrigley, he is nice insurance if Castro doesn't pan out, or is moved in a trade.
6. B. Jackson-Performed very well this fall after signing, hopefully he is not another K-Pat or Colvin clone, full of tools, but not plate discipline.
7. Flaherty-Can provide some much needed middle infield depth.
8. C. Carpenter-Starting to produce after injuries and attitude issues.
9. Burke-A sleeper, but has performed very well at the lower levels.
10. Colvin-Probably a 4th outfielder at best, but is cheaper than Reed Johnson, we may as well find out what we have.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Been busy, so haven't had time to finish things
but my top 10 goes (spaces to denote a split in tiers)
1. Starlin Castro
2. Josh Vitters
3. Jay Jackson
4. Andrew Cashner
5. Hak-ju Lee
6. Brett Jackson
7. Chris Carpenter
8. Kyler Burke
9. Ryan Flaherty
10. Dae-Eun Rhee
Still working on finalizing it when I get a chance, though.
This is my tentative top 30 with tentative grades
1. Starlin Castro, B+.
2. Josh Vitters, B.
3. Jay Jackson, B.
4. Andrew Cashner, B.
5. Hak-ju Lee, B-/B.
6. Brett Jackson, B-/B.
7. Chris Carpenter, B-/B.
8. Kyler Burke, C+/B-.
9. Ryan Flaherty, C+/B-.
10. Dae-Eun Rhee, *.
11. Tyler Colvin, C+.
12. DJ LeMahieu, C+.
13. Welington Castillo, C+/C.
14. Jeffry Antigua, C/C+.
15. Brooks Raley, C/C+.
16. Casey Coleman, C/C+.
17. Ryan Searle, C/C+.
18. Chris Archer, C/C+.
19. Chris Rusin, C/C+.
20. Logan Watkins, C/C+.
21. Blake Parker, C/C+.
22. John Gaub, C/C+.
23. Esmailin Caridad, C/C+.
24. Chris Huseby, C/C+.
25. Rafael Dolis, C.
26. Sam Fuld, C.
27. Darwin Barney, C.
28. Steve Clevenger, C.
29. James Russell, C.
30. Justin Bristow, C.
Fuld shouldn't really be on the list, should he?
He no longer qualifies as a 2010 rookie — I think that’s the deciding factor for being off a prospect list, right?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
your right
completely forgot about the days rule. he didn’t pass the ab rule, but he’s definitely past the days on roster rule.
according to AZ Phil he still qualifies.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 14, 2009 5:48 PM CST up reply actions
Believe it or not, AZ Phil can be wrong. And in this case, he's wrong.
Here are the rules for rookie qualification:
Determining rookie status:
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).
Fuld was on the major league roster during the period of the 25-player limit in 2009 from June 29 through July 6 (eight days), July 12 to July 20 (eight days), and July 31 to August 31 (32 days).
That’s a total of 48 days — over the limit. Fuld does not qualify as a rookie for 2010.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Got it
but just barely.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 15, 2009 11:38 AM CST up reply actions
so we should expect
at least 50 FULD FOR ROY posts this coming season anyway?
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Well perhaps at least one.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 15, 2009 11:50 AM CST up reply actions
I think AzPhil doesn't
consider the days rule. Al’s right, Fuld’s definitely past. I completely forgot about the days rule originally. I think my number 31 (on the road right now, so don’t have my usb out) was Craig Muschko, who I’ve been told that the Cubs are really pleased with, even though they know his ceiling isn’t that high. Another option would’ve been Austin Kirk, who has the potential to be a solid mid-end of the rotation lefty if his secondary pitches develop, but I was hesitant to rank Kirk (our 3rd rounder this past year) higher due to the fact that, most people believe that there’s very little physical projection left, so what you see (fb topping out in the low 90’s) is what you get. That said, still working out the back end of the top 30 and tinkering with my top 50.
OT: Who is Dr. Crawdad? I’m having the most annoying conversation ever imaginable with him on Bless You Boys (SB Nation Tigers blog … was discussing Granderson trade with Tigers fans before this guy (I’m assuming guy) started up). I feel bad for Ian Casselberry having to read that). I seem to remember him being here before. Sorry, I just wanted to check if anyone knows who he is, as he carries a quote from Shanghai Badger on his profile.
Did
you know that Muschko was a Qb for Lasalle University?
yeah
I’ve always wondered if there was a correlation between QB’s and pitching mentality, but I haven’t had the desire to actually research that. That said, there’s certainly different styles of QB, but off the top, some former QB’s that ended up pitching seemed to more efficient, “attack the zone” guys.
Chad Hutchinson was a pitcher for the Cardinals Minor League System
so I am not sure if I want to look at a QB for a pitcher or vice versa
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
ha
fair enough. Admittedly, haven’t contemplated it that much before. Just one of those random thoughts I had once upon a blue moon.
Crawdad is our resident Sox fan
I wouldn’t even bother with him too much if possible.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
Went over to read what was going on with him
Classic Crawdad conversation. He will be here in about 20 minutes telling us how we are all obsessed with the Sox.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
ugh
he’s as close as I’ve come to hating a random person online for than the split-second in typing a response. Seriously. His original contention is fine – Castro might not reach the high ceiling people are talking about. I even agreed about that possibility early in that conversation. The rest of his stuff, that was annoying. I’m fine if I’m wrong … but don’t misquote me and claim I said something else when it’s plain as day what I typed. Just read before typing … not that hard right? Granted, I eventually sort of lost my cool and made a couple snide comments about White Sox fans, even though I actually enjoy following the White Sox as Kenny is an interesting GM.
Thank you very much for putting Coleman on your list
I don’t understand how he can’t make a freaking top 30 list of prospects in the organization.
by Mulhollandmania on Nov 14, 2009 4:52 PM CST up reply actions
I think Coleman might surprise a lot of people.
To have come out of nowhere to be the organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year at age 22 — he’ll be at the very least, invited to spring training, if not added to the 40-man roster.
He may not have a shot at the 2010 rotation, but watch for him in 2011. He won’t be 23 until July.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
By all accounts
He’s a smart kid that plays to his strengths and attacks hitters. The problem is, he just misses so few bats and he doesn’t have a heavy enough sinker to induce the high level of ground balls. So far, he doesn’t have the control of a Randy Wells (that’s probably a solid comparison). Casey’s margin for error is really slim. He also doesn’t really play well as a pen arm (on paper, a middle reliever if he goes to the pen), unless there’s enough extra oomph in that arm.
That said, I like him a lot and I could definitely see him forcing his way into a 5th starter’s role in MLB.
Nice list.
I think you are higher than Searle than I am. I like the work you do here and NSBB
4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42
Thanks
I’m actually not that high on Searle, but OO and Raisin somewhat convinced me during the year. He gets a high level of ground balls, is a raw arm with some more projection potentially in regards to pure development, and showed some improvement on secondary pitches. He very well could end up being a Justin Berg type arm if the secondary pitches don’t develop (as of now, BErg’s sinker is probably better, but Searle has a more rounded arsenal). That said, young, decent season in A+, and enough reasons to have some hope that he can stick as a starter. I think you could order that bunch of tentative C/C+ guys any way you saw fit and make a viable case.
See I jsut dont have high hopes for him
Plus I read somewhere there was some cockiness issues as well
4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42
Anytime
you have an almost for sure major leaguer (even thou most say he’s Theriot or Theriot light and maybe better defense) your starting to really build some depth. You’ve got a pitcher like Coleman who in his 1st full year won 15 games in 2a counting his playoff game and he’s not even included in this list, the Cubs are really and finally getting stronger.
I think it just wrong that Colelman is not on the list.
It was the first thing I noticed.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 14, 2009 1:29 PM CST up reply actions
I'll 2nd that
his ceiling isn’t great, but he’s a solid arm coming off a solid year after getting push, and he has a shot to be a back of the rotation type starter. If his cutter can lead to more swings and misses, he’ll be much better. That said, upper level arm, decently high floor. I think that merits top 30 status.
Who gets to Wrigley first?
Probably Colvin on the DesMoines shuttle next year, but I think Jackson may have more of an impact than anyone on the list for next year. There will be spots open, and he produced with each progression last year. He even seemed to handle his disciplining last year well.
With Cashner being groomed as a starter, after being a reliever in college he’ll hold back another full year.
Castro will need another year in the minors. I just don’t see the organization seeing any wisdom in having him on the MLB roster unless it is to take the majority of the starts at SS.
The one thing I really like is the organization seems to be building solid depth in pitching, and in infielders. A good way to fill holes, and make trades from a position of strength.
Depends
If the Cubs decide to scrap the Cashner starting experiement, he could be in the majors right now (probably). In terms of the first impact guy to reach the bigs out of our top level of prospects, I’ll go with Jay Jackson. If he gets off to a good start in Iowa, if the Cubs have an opening, I could see him being brought up for 5th starter or pen duty. Don’t discount Chris Carpenter, who might have the best starter’s arsenal out of our top 3 arms, although I think they play it slow with him.
While I don’t like it, if Castro gets off to a hot start, I could see him up by summer as well. Brett Jackson, Hak-ju Lee, and Josh Vitters all need much more time.
As for guys below that tier, Colvin should be up whenever an injury happens. Some pen arms could be in the mix, like Parker/Gaub. Maybe an outside shot of Reinhard.
What I’m very pleased with is the the up-the-middle talent that the Cubs have accumulated under Wilken. Catcher is a bit of a problem spot in the system, but there’s some promise lower. This is a positionally-oriented system right now, because after the top tier of arms, things drop off fast, with either arms that are unknown, arms that are average, or arms that are raw. I do imagine that the 2010 draft may be pitching-oriented, like the 2008 draft.
Is Cashner starting
in the minors with the intention of starting him in the majors, or to improve his secondary pitches and log him more innings with the intention of him being a reliever in the majors?
DEJESUS!!!
i don't have the answer to that but
every indication is that they want to pursue him starting as long as possible.
It seems like the same issue the Yankees had with Joba.
When you have an arm like that you might as well see if he can cut it as a starter.
Noticed
that Castro is tied for third in the league in hitting and Vitters is 5th with both of them with low strikeout totals. Yes we know they need to take more pitches but the biggest fact is that they’re showing ability to put the bat on the ball and thats you 1st priority.
when it comes to Cubs prospects
how much should we truly expect? Look at all the “top” prospects over the years, and how many were worth a damn down the road
lets look at:
this list, or this list and see some of the big time prospects we have had.
and how things change, look at this baseball america projected line up for the 2010 Cubs just a few years ago
PROJECTED 2010 LINEUP
Catcher Michael Barrett
First Base Derrek Lee
Second Base Eric Patterson
Third Base Aramis Ramirez
Shortstop Ronny Cedeno
Left Field Alfonso Soriano
Center Field Felix Pie
Right Field Tyler Colvin
No. 1 Starter Carlos Zambrano
No. 2 Starter Mark Prior
No. 3 Starter Donald Veal
No. 4 Starter Ted Lilly
No. 5 Starter Sean Gallagher
Closer Jeff Samardzija
or as recent as january 2009, this was our projected 2012 line up, and if anyone sees this line up as being championship caliber, please tell me how.
PROJECTED 2012 LINEUP
Catcher Geovanny Soto
First Base Aramis Ramirez
Second Base Ryan Flaherty
Third Base Josh Vitters
Shortstop Starlin Castro
Left Field Alfonso Soriano
Center Field Brandon Guyer
Right Field Tyler Colvin
No. 1 Starter Carlos Zambrano
No. 2 Starter Jeff Samardzija
No. 3 Starter Andrew Cashner
No. 4 Starter Rich Harden
No. 5 Starter Ryan Dempster
Closer Carlos Marmol
and our top 10 as of January 2009
TOP TEN PROSPECTS
1. Josh Vitters, 3b
2. Jeff Samardzija, rhp
3. Andrew Cashner, rhp
4. Dae-Eun Rhee, rhp
5. Wellington Castillo, c
6. Kevin Hart, rhp
7. Starlin Castro, ss/2b
8. Ryan Flaherty, ss
9. Jay Jackson, rhp
10. Hak-Ju Lee, ss
I will be curious to see in a few years which Top 10 Prospect class from the 2000-2009 decade actually turns out the most talent. We have developed some talent, but I guess my point is that if someone calls about ANY PROSPECT the Cubs have to listen. 100+ losing seasons says that no one in the organization should be safe from trade talks (I know NTC’s can screw that up, but they can be waived, and I am not going to try to explain how to move anyone in particular, its just my opinion.)
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
If you look at any of those projected lineups
none of them ever turn out accurate for any team. BA has to list a player at every position even if a system is weak.
As for the comment, the Cubs have to listen to trades for any prospect because most fail, absolutely NOT. For a team to win, it needs cheap homegrown talent. A team cannot win consistently without that talent to fill in and contribute.
The Cubs are an old team, they better hope that some of this talent develops. Trading it away for a one year shot is not a good idea.
Castro is basically untouchable to me. Vitters is close as well.
I would say that there is no reason
NOT to listen to any and all offers for everyone in the system. Sure we need cheap talent to fill holes, I will not dispute that, but you also have to have talent in that cheap person, to be usable. If the right trade comes up for anyone, take it and run. 1908 and counting says to hell with building a dynasty, lets build a one time winner first.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
by Cubbie-Tim on Nov 16, 2009 6:31 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
and then when that team fails and gets old everyone will complain that we have no talent
"hey
by jesus christos on Nov 16, 2009 6:51 PM CST up reply actions
i know its a catch-22
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
And the more times you make the playoffs the better chance you have
I’m not willing to gut what is still a rebuilding farm for a one year shot. Of course, unless you can say that one year is a given. The 2010 Cubs will be an old team. They will be competitive but far from a certainty to even win the division. I’m not willing to gut the system for someone like a Granderson. Even if you could make a deal like Castro for Halladay, the team in the field will still have questions.
did i say gut it for one CF? nope
I just said that no one should be off limits in talks
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
I find Vitters more valuable
Vitters hits the ball hard every time. Something like that doesn’t come a long very often. He just needs to develop A LITTLE plate discipline, and we’ll be fine.
Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.
My top ten
1. Castro
2. Vitters
3. J Jax
4. B Jax
5. Ca$hner
6. Hak Ju Lee
7. Carpenter
8. Flaherty
9. Burke
10. Rhee
4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42
sort of a side note
but I think people should remember that, imo, the most important thing about prospect lists (or the biggest value they have) is in engendering discussion. Everyone judges, grades differently. I mean, looking back at our prospect lists in 2003, when we were well-regarded, and one sees that most of them failed to pan out. Attrition rates are ridiculously high, for obvious reasons. A prospect off the list might end up having a better career than say, a top 7 guy. I’m hopeful that, unlike recent history, some top Cubs prospects will develop into quality mlb players. I am a bit more confident about the development structure of the Cubs minors than in the past.
To
add on to that if I may. Our signings have improved vastly in latin america and our international have been fantastic and our scouts have improved since 2003, look at that 2005 draft and there’s a chance not one player even gets a “cup of coffee” from that draft, the people picking these players have done a much better job.
I agree and
we all should hope they are doing better. The Cubs are an old team so some of these players need to develop in the next few years.
This is precisely why a team like the Cubs, imo,
should focus more on high-ceiling prospects on the position player side of things. Our budget allows us to get middling hitters on the free agent market just fine. What isn;t available via free agency are the top tier players. That’s why I’d rather have a farm that fails 4 out of 5 high ceiling guys than a farm that graduates 4 middling guys.
Is he traded yet?
great
in theory DGU!! There’s slight problem thou, the Cubs the last two years in the draft were 24th in spending, (Baseball America stats) so to go after those high ceiling players like Wieters or Porcello which the Cubs couldnt do in 2007, they’re going to have to spend more!
why do that
when we can overspend on John Grabow! (insert sarcasm button here)
by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 16, 2009 2:06 PM CST up reply actions
We did a Top 10 List over on NSBB
Toonster and CaliforniaRaisin both had input in it. Link. Part 2 will probably be out soon.
I’ll have my full Top 30 with grades, comments, and the like once I get some more free time.
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