Fangraphs hasn't given up on Geo, should you?
Disclaimer: This article was written for fantasy baseball purposes. Nonetheless, there's plenty of statistical support for the notion that we haven't seen the last of the good player named Geovany Soto.
How 'bout we put the kibosh on the weight and weed jokes for a while and get behind Geo for the 2010 season, hmm?
about 2 years ago
daver
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Catching is a physically demanding position
which is why lots of sophomore catchers have poor seasons.
Geo’s situation was made worse by showing up to camp in shape, but losing that conditioning during the WBC.
No WBC, no pampering by the Cubs, I have high hopes.
Is he traded yet?
Agreed.
I’d guess the WBC threw him out of whatever pre-season routine he had in mind. Of course, seeing as how this year was only his second full season in the majors, he may not have had a set-in-stone routine to begin with. Throw in the injuries (which may or may not have been lack-of-conditioning related) and a heaping helping of bad luck and there’s Geo’s 2009.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Sorry...
I’m pretty low on Geo. His 18 months of power always seemed like an outlier, and his work habits and conditioning this year left me speechless. I mean, I don’t mind the pot; just keep some low-fat chips in the cabinet, you know?
Still better than average, I guess, but I wouldn’t hesitate to upgrade, given the chance.
This is pretty much how I feel
The pot thing is good for some jokes, but more I think it just shows his overall level of commitment to baseball during the WBC (that evil, evil thing).
If he posts the projected numbers for next season that will be nice, certainly better than Koyie Hill. I’ll believe he is in shape and ready to play when I see it.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
I don't think it has anything to do with...
his committment to baseball. If he were toking up between innings, sure. But I highly doubt that’s what happened. What does him smoke a doob at night have to do with his committment to baseball?
Because its against the rules of his employment
Something he obviously didn’t care about when he did it. To me that is lack of commitment.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
That's nuts.
It’s also against the rules of our country. Does that mean that everyone who smokes weed doesn’t care about being a good citizen?
Players go out all the time and get drinks after the game. Some before (ha). Who cares if Geo would rather sit on his couch after a game and smoke one rather than going to have a few drinks?
I care
1. It is illegal, which means he is putting himself in danger of jail time.
2. It is illegal, which means he has to buy it from drug dealers, which puts him at risk of bodily harm.
3. He is smoking said drug, which decreases his pulmonary function.
4. Said drug is known to cause apathy, which might have something to do with him showing up out of shape.
5. He is, whether he likes it or not, a role model for his countrymen.
DEJESUS!!!
well, I doubt a pro ballplayer ...
is PERSONALLY buying drugs from drug dealers. And let’s not get into the whole role model thing. That’s just a can of worms.
Good point.
Imagine if Geo REALLY rebounds next season and makes the All-Star Team. We could see a Lincecum-Soto battery. The weed jokes would be endless.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Mark Grace smoked like a freight train.
But that was just tobacco.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Nov 19, 2009 10:31 PM CST up reply actions
if he smoked it in Puerto Rico
then you have to make sure it is illegal there before you say it is illegal.
that being said, i do not know the laws of Puerto Rico and cannot comment abouot the legal or illegal part.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
and it seems quite hard a penalty for weed
in Puerto Rico if this link is correct
POSSESSION
Any amount (first offense) felony 3 years* $5,000
Any amount (subsequent offense) felony 6 years $5,000
*Possible probation for first offense with dismissal upon completion of probation.
SALE OR CULTIVATION
Any amount felony 12 years $20,000
Sale to a minor, or within 100 meters of a school or recreation facility felony double penalty double penalty
MISCELLANEOUS
Paraphernalia possession felony 3 years $3,000
Paraphernalia possession or sale to minor felony 3 years $30,000
DETAILS
Possession of marijuana is a felony punishable by three years in prison and a fine up to $5,000 for the first offense. The penalty for a second or subsequent offense increases to six years in prison. First offenders are eligible for probation without a verdict, and upon successful completion of the probation, the charges may be dismissed.
Manufacture, delivery or sale of marijuana is punishable by up to 12 years in prison and a fine of up to $20,000. Any distribution to minors or distribution within 100 meters of a school or recreation facility increases the possible penalties to twice the amount.
Possession of paraphernalia is punishable by three years in prison and a fine up to $3,000 and sale of paraphernalia is also punished by three years in prison, but the possible fine increases to $30,000.
Conditional release: The state allows conditional release or alternative or diversion sentencing for people facing their first prosecutions. Usually, conditional release lets a person opt for probation rather than trial. After successfully completing probation, the individual’s criminal record does not reflect the charge.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
I'm also a little down on Geo.
But wouldn’t we all be content if he could just split the difference between 08 and 09?? Wouldn’t this line be good enough, particularly at the price?
.250/.350/.400 (.750 OPS) with 18 HR and 60 RBI? That’s even below the projections in the article.
I mean… obviously we’d love a return of ’08 Geo, but we can “get by” with even a modest improvement off his ’09 numbers.
Hitting towards the bottom of the lineup?
Sure. It’s just that now he’s got some ugly habits that have been exposed, so this is where I might start hedging my bets a bit. Maybe I start looking for a backup that’s an offensive upgrade over Koyie Hill for next season, and start keeping an eye out for some catching prospects in next year’s draft.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 18, 2009 1:51 PM CST up reply actions
I agree with that.
There’s simply no better option for the Cubs right now. Perhaps they could have found a way to shoe-horn in on V-Mart last season with a three-way offer including Soto, but they didn’t and you might as well see what Soto can do.
Is he traded yet?
This seems like a reasonable expectation - and it would be fine with me, too.
I’m not suggesting Cubs fans should expect Mike Piazza, but I’m a little saddened (and a lot annoyed) by all the Jerome Walton comparisons.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
The work habits
He still can’t block the plate well, and for a 2nd-year MLB catcher not to know that you can’t pick the ball up with your mask is inexcusable.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Nov 18, 2009 2:27 PM CST up reply actions
The mask thing is classic Cubs minor league "teaching"
Just like all our amazingly smart baserunners
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
Agreed, but -
Soto bears some of the blame.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Nov 18, 2009 3:26 PM CST up reply actions
Yes he does
It seems like such a simple thing to learn too.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
I agree that was a particularly egregious error...
…but I don’t believe it happened again for the rest of the season.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
So?
I remember a time in college where I needed my dad to pay $200 for some damage some friends and I caused in our dorm. When I explained it, I told him I was sorry, and that I had learned my lesson.
My dad wasn’t impressed. “I’m kind of surprised you actually had to learn that lesson.”
See aldimond's post below.
I, too, would put Geo’s unfortunate decision to try to pick up that ball with his mask right up there with Milton tossing the ball into the stands with only two-outs or any number facepalm-inducing errors that happen on a baseball field in any given season. The guy’s a catcher. He had a lot on his mind. It was a mistake. If he had done it three or four times over the course of the season, fine. Indict him in Federal court. Otherwise, it was just an embarassing oversight that really didn’t mean that much.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
And on what are you basing your assessment that he can't block the plate well?
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Humble Pie
I think he seemed pretty aware of how he screwed up. I would be real surprised (and disappointed) if he doesn’t come back in better shape than 08 even. He seemed embarassed by how he played, the shape he was in and the announcement of the blood test. I think he will eat humble pie (sugar free) and come back better than ever.
"When I was younger, I could remember anything, whether it had happened or not." --Mark Twain
Give up? No
Be very, very concerned and maybe quietly look at catching prospects in other organizations? Yes.
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
Absolutely - though I would replace "very, very" with "somewhat."
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Knowing how demanding the position is and letting yourself get fat and smoking pot is pretty stupid.
I question his mental abilities……
I agree with Worf-we need to be looking around at other prospects. Maybe that would push Geo to keep himself in shape.
Reminds me a lot of the Zambrano thing….Lazy, needs to be pushed, selfish…..
um...
did anyone bother to read the fangraphs article? his contact rate, walk rate, strikeout rate, etc, were all on par with 2008. the guy got unlucky: it had nothing to do with pot, junkfood, the WBC or voodoo. he can show up in the exact same shape as last year, and, barring injury, is very likely to see a dramatic increase in production.
shawn, your posts are going in one ear and out the other…
You say barring injury
It was his bad shape that contributed to at least one of his injuries (oblique) and probably combined with lack of playing at the WBC to his biceps injury.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
the point is:
Will Soto getting in getter shape increase his durability behind the plate? Yes. Will it increase his BABIP to his career norm of 0.310? Nope.
I'm not down on Geo
but why assume he’ll “turn it around”. A catchers defense should be the priority over offense. If you can get offense (read at least hit league average) out of a catcher is great. He needs to handle pitchers, block balls, and throw out baserunners. If he is injury free then let me see it from him in spring training, otherwise why not cya.
The reasons for assuming (or better term: "having a reasonable expectation")...
…that Geo will turn it around are detailed in the article.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
You're very high on Geo
I hope he “bounces back” but nothing he did last year would suggest that he will. The power numbers should rise given he will play more games assuming he doesn’t hurt himself again, These are just projected stats, what were his projected stats for last year? I really hope he focuses on getting in shape and staying healthy, Jaramillo could do wonders for him at the plate.
I do worry about Geo though, his numbers to start his career are very similar to Rick Wilkins’ numbers, one big season to start, and then a sharp decline.
And someone needs to tell Geo he can’t field balls with his mask!
Someone needs to tell Geo he can't field balls with his mask...
… and someone needs to tell Bradley not to chuck the ball over the fence after making the second out. Someone had better tell Alex Gonzalez not to boot ground balls; Bill Buckner, too, for that matter. Likewise with Alfonso Soriano, Luis Castillo, and Brant Brown and fly balls. They could tell the left side of the Angels infield that one of them needs to catch a pop-up hit their way. And they should tell Scott Kazmir not to airmail the first baseman (alternately they could tell Kendry Morales to run under the ball instead of jumping too early).
Players commit errors. One really bad-looking error reveals very little about a player’s defensive ability. If you look at Geo’s rate stats his power really did decline a bit in 2009. He still had good plate discipline and very good power, just a lot of bad luck on batted balls. It’s possible that better health will bring back 2008 power, but even if it doesn’t his underlying offensive skills, shown by an in-depth look at his stats rather than the superficial one you take, are still good enough to predict an offensive rebound in 2010.
mental mistakes aren't the same thing ...
as messing up a play. So Geo fielding the ball with his mask doesn’t equal Alex Gonzalez booting a ground ball. Should Geo be benched for it? Of course not.
Your whole argument is b.s.
it is all based on “luck”. Soto made outs last season, those outs were not because of bad luck. Players hit balls, balls get caught. Those are outs, not bad luck. Get real, Soto sucks, you can believe in these “projected stats” all you want, but they don’t mean shit.
The mask thing, happened more than once and its not an error, rather it is a violation of the rules of baseball, which he should know. I chalk that up to laziness more than anything else.
um, really?
Projected stats DO mean something. Thinking that a hitter who had a season of bad luck (and it does happen) can’t recover leads to teams giving up on players too soon. The stat heads around here could jump in an explain how Soto had a really low average when he hit balls in play — which means he didn’t strike out that much and that he probably hit a lot of lasers right at people.
Soto is under team control, he’s cheap and he likely will hit better in 2010 than he did in 2009. Would you prefer the Cubs nontender him at a point where a 25 home-run season is possible? Would you be complaining about the Cubs’ decision to let him go if he had that season in Milwaukee, or Houston next year?
The mask thing was really dumb. But Daver and others are right that it isn’t a trend.
I think that Geo missed Hank White more than the pitchers did...
It’s hard to believe that either Lou didn’t want Hank back or that Hendry couldn’t pony up $750,000.
I’m a little down on Geo because the conditioning issues of 2009 seem to be a replay of his time in the minors. Most guys who spend three years in AAA will do anything to not go back. It’s sad to think that Geo forgot that lesson.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
Ok
But you’re assuming “that he probably hit a lot of lasers right at people”. I watched just about every game last season and I can tell you that was not the case. More like a lot of average depth fly-outs.
I’m not saying non-tender him, just don’t get your hopes up based on projected stats.
Did you watch every single at-bat with laser-like focus...
…and record exactly what happened for each one?
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
No
But to say that “he probably hit a lot of lasers right at people” is a false statement. Soto’s hitting woes were not as unlucky as you believe. He played like crap last season, stop making excuses for this fat bum. Deal with it.
Sigh.
I’m not running from the stats, here they are: BA: a whopping .218, 11 HR, 47RBI, OBP .321, SLG .381.
Nothing great there, I’m just not a believer in BABIP, and won’t use bad luck as a crutch or an excuse for poor play.
I'm gonna let you figure that out.
Hint: They’re mentioned in the article above.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
It's not that you're looking at the wrong stats. You're looking at them in the wrong way.
You can look at all the stats you want that tell you about the results of Geo’s trips to the plate last year. Statheads like wOBA and wRAA as quick “one number” offensive assessments. They could for some discussions be “the right stat”, and they look ugly too. There’s no question: Geovany Soto struggled at the plate in 2009.
Players get the results they get for a number of reasons. When we decide what we expect a player to do in the future, some are more important to look at than others. And in a lot of important metrics Geo has performed just as well. His strike zone judgment and contact rates are almost exactly the same (improved by insignificant amounts). His Isolated Slugging (SLG-BA) is down considerably from 2008, but still viable. The big driver behind his poor 2009 results was a low batting average on balls in play. And that doesn’t tend to repeat itself from one year to the next.
If we’re concerned with what’s likely for 2010 instead of assessing 2009 we have to look a bit deeper. In fact, you could look deeper than what we can do with publicly available stats if you had the type of access a Fangraphs writer does… it would just take lots of time (more than is warranted for the sort of fantasy advice column this piece was). And, of course, you’d want to read what knowledgeable people that have watched him play think (for the record, I’m not knowledgeable enough about hitting for anyone to care what I think about it).
well said
and I like how you gave various examples detailing it.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Well, as much as it pains me to dispute rock-solid reasoning such as this...
…I’m going to stick with the recorded results of the games.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Which is perfectly reasonable.
I’d like to see a breakdown — if one is available — of how Soto was pitched to in 2009 compared to 2008. I suspect he got more fastballs to hit in 2008, and pitchers adjusted to that in 2009 — Geo wasn’t able to make the re-adjustment.
Two possible explanations for that: being out of shape and not ready for the season due to the WBC, and then the oblique injury.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Yeah, but according to the article above, he DID adjust:
Soto drew walks in 11.2% of his PA in 2008, while offering at 20.1% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). In 2009, he walked 13.1%, while showing even more restraint on out-of-the-zone offerings (17.8 O-Swing%).
He was more patient this year and his 2009 contact percentage was greater than 2008: 78.3% vs. 74.7%. So when he did swing, he made more contact. This really does seem to be a case of injuries + bad luck = bad season. Naturally, I’m not guaranteeing he’s going to rebound next year, but I see no reason not to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
by daver on Nov 20, 2009 10:36 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
He did walk more
and that is something to build on, a 3.6% jump in contact percentage is not that significant. He also had about 180 less at-bats in 2009, so who knows how that would’ve translated over the entire season, had he been healthy.
I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt to rebound, he needs to, I’m just not getting my hope up.
...
I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt to rebound,
This is all I’m asking anyone to do. Seeing as how you believe “Soto sucks,” it doesn’t surprise me you’re not going to get your hopes up.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Well
to be fair, I am a pessimist by nature. Part of me feels he took a lot for granted last season and got caught up in his own hype. Maybe he’ll use that as a learning experience and make a conscious effort to improve his game. Plus, I really think Jaramillo could help him a LOT. Soto did suck last season, shit happens, he can bounce back.
No.
3.6% jump in contact percentage is not that significant
actually, it is. it seems like a small , but it’s definitely not insignificant within the scope of baseball stats/metrics. to put it in perspective, 3.6 difference is the difference between batting 0.300 and 0.264.
Thanks for pointing this out.
I’m not qualified to make such distinctions, but something told me that a guy who “doesn’t believe in BABIP” isn’t either.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
So
Assuming he got unlucky by hitting liners right at people, which is what fangraphs and you are doing, is considered recorded results of the games. Wow. Sorry, but I prefer to look at the stats that matter. I trust my eyes and saw plenty of Soto last season. In spurts he was fine, but he always seemed uncomfortable at the plate.
I’m just curious, in 2008 he seemed to hit the ball the other way a lot, with success, any idea how he did in regards to that in 2009?
There's probably a spray chart somewhere that shows that.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
well i'm sold.
I trust my eyes and saw plenty of Soto last season. In spurts he was fine, but he always seemed uncomfortable at the plate.
the reason 99% of us should use stats/quantitative analysis over anecdotal statements like the one above (or our own ‘expert’ observations), is that we’re NOT MLB scouts. if the statement came from a scouting report, it would have weight. since i don’t have access to scouting reports, i trust the other tool MLB teams use for player evaluation: stats/metrics.
by Andronicus on Nov 22, 2009 4:41 PM CST up reply actions 5 recs
maybe
staying in spring training this year will help him. get your work in geo.dont know if he will ever be as good as 08 but i can see him hitting 250. with some power.
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