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I think this is exactly what many (including me) are afraid of.

That the Cubs are ponying up big money for a rather run-of-the-mill reliever. It’s not that Grabow is bad – just that he isn’t that good. Then again, if I dare bring chemistry into this discussion, he appears to be an easy-going, “good clubhouse” guy who’ll add some veteran leadership to the pen. I’m guessing this may be partly (largely?) what Hendry is looking at.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Nov 19, 2009 11:30 AM CST reply actions  

i suppose

if you considered it a waste of opportunity as well, since we could’ve landed a draft pick instead

it could be considered a waste of cash AND a waste of opportunity

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 19, 2009 11:36 AM CST up reply actions  

It's basically the cost of having a manager like Lou Piniella

he needs his veterans that he’s comfortable with. He’s comfortable with Grabow.

Is he traded yet?

by DGU on Nov 19, 2009 1:01 PM CST up reply actions  

Agreed.

Grabow’s like a comfy flanel shirt that Lou absolutely must have in his wardrobe. Actually, come to think of it, I can’t really picture Lou in flanel. Maybe Grabow’s more like a Hawaiian shirt. No, that’s too colorful. Somebody help me out here.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Nov 19, 2009 1:06 PM CST up reply actions  

old blue jeans?

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Nov 19, 2009 1:19 PM CST up reply actions  

I disagree.

A good GM needs to know where his manager’s power ends and his power begins. This is the Lou farewell tour, he made it clear last season when he admitted he’s going to retire after this season. Hendry listened to Lou last year and the season was a failure. If Hendry did indeed do this for Lou, which I’m not so sure about, then Hendry is at fault for not asserting himself by not signing this guy.

Metal sharpens metal.

And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan

by dakoose on Nov 19, 2009 1:23 PM CST up reply actions  

BCB seems to have this discussion regularly

that Hendry needs to be more assertive with his managers. Well, that’s not his style for better and for worse. I don’t see it changing.

Is he traded yet?

by DGU on Nov 19, 2009 1:25 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree that I don't see that changing,

but I do place the blame for the poor signings more on Hendry than Lou. We’re not really disagreeing, rather I’m just expressing my anger with Hendry for giving in to his manager, if that in fact is happening.

Metal sharpens metal.

And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan

by dakoose on Nov 19, 2009 1:41 PM CST up reply actions  

In this case

it’s small potatoes. Sure, we yukon gold might make better potato salad, but Lou’s comfortable with russet. Sure, Hendry bought them and missed the sale. It’s just not worth getting worked up about to me.

Is he traded yet?

by DGU on Nov 19, 2009 1:49 PM CST up reply actions  

DGU

you keep saying he’s comfortable with him

would you then agree lou was “comfortable” with Eyre in ’07?

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 19, 2009 1:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Look, you make decent points.

This could be a “disaster” on a limited basis; I’m hoping that Lou said, “This guy is going to give me what I want” and I hope he meant it and knows what Grabow really is. We can live with Grabow having a role in our pen.

Is he traded yet?

by DGU on Nov 19, 2009 1:52 PM CST up reply actions  

not a prominent role...

he’s aaron heilman

if aaron heilman was just re-signed to this exact deal and anointed the setup man we’d be losing our minds and Grabow is practically the same pitcher if not worse throughout his career

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 19, 2009 1:53 PM CST up reply actions  

I wouldn't be losing my mind if Heilman was re-signed and anointed the setup man.

It’s just the bullpen. It will shake out eventually and we have real talent in the minors. You need a healthy veteran to lean on whatever his role ends up being.

Is he traded yet?

by DGU on Nov 19, 2009 4:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Grabow is left-handed.

Heilman is not.

For a relief pitcher, heck yeah it matters.

by cubsforever on Nov 23, 2009 10:55 AM CST up reply actions  

because

in ’07 Eyre pitched 52 1/3 innings, this about the same pace Grabow was on as a Cub

the next year Eyre was banished and then traded mid season

How can you tell from such a small sample that a manager who can turn on guys pretty quickly is going to be comfortable with Grabow in the future?

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 19, 2009 1:52 PM CST up reply actions  

I've always wondered whether...

…Lou’s problem with Eyre wasn’t a personal (or personality) thing.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Nov 19, 2009 2:04 PM CST up reply actions  

After Eyre was traded,

he was asked in an interview if he had ever talked to Lou about how he was being used. He said he had not, that he wasn’t comfortable with that.

Lou Piniella has a very assertive personality and I think that is a trait that he respects in others. I wonder if his statements about “Steve Ire” were part of a prodding of a manager that wanted a player to take the initiative to talk to him.

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Nov 19, 2009 4:05 PM CST up reply actions  

That sounds possible...

…. and it seems like Eyre, who pitched well for the Phillies, and Lou simply were not personalities who could get along.

It’s too bad, but that happens in baseball.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Nov 19, 2009 4:12 PM CST up reply actions  

I really don't see it at a personality thing.

I suppose you could say Lou may not have liked Eyre because he was an easygoing guy but
according to Eyre ( who I believe) Lou did not talk to him at all. He had a comment sort of wistful about not understanding why Lou never talked to him or asked him anything. Lou appears to form very stronge opinions on some players without deviating. Somehow Eyre was bad but Howry just needed to be talked to ( as Lou once said after he gave up yet another game killin HR). Anyway Stevie had the last laugh. One WS and one pennant. Not bad.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim

by Doggie Stalker on Nov 19, 2009 4:16 PM CST up reply actions  

It happens...

…in all areas of sports and business.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 19, 2009 4:16 PM CST up reply actions  

Yep.

Sure does. Unfortunate, too, because this is how a manager can delete useful talent from a team for no particularly good reason.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Nov 19, 2009 5:07 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 19, 2009 9:56 PM CST up reply actions  

There is a reason...

…this discussion comes up regularly. A GM’s job is to have final say on players, otherwise, why the hell is he sitting in that chair?

On this changing; I’d bet this is the last year the club has to deal with this, and not because Lou may retire either.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 19, 2009 4:01 PM CST up reply actions  

What a concept!!!!!

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 19, 2009 3:58 PM CST up reply actions  

this is a wild assumption

based on less than half a season

i guess lou was comfortable with eyre in ’07 as well right?

We know Lou isn’t going to like the walk-fest Grabow provides… we know the ending to this story

this is insane

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 19, 2009 1:46 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

If that is truely the case...

…than you could also say it’s the cost of having a GM that doesn’t tell Lou – “tough shit” this is what your gettting!

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 19, 2009 3:55 PM CST up reply actions  

That doesn't sound like a very productive professional relationship.

It seems to make more sense to me for the GM and Manager to work together.

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Nov 19, 2009 4:07 PM CST up reply actions  

a productive professional relationship

isn’t just catering to a dominant personality’s requests either

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 19, 2009 4:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Obviously...

…I was exagerating in how the discussion would go for effect.

Do you not think the GM should have final say in these matters?

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 19, 2009 4:12 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree

I think it’s a bad move, although I can mildly understand the motivation behind it. But when you add in that we are in a tight financial situation, I’m just not sure why we spend that money, when we could go with some combination of Marshall/Gorzelanny/Gaub in the pen and probably get whatever performance we would get out of Grabow.

by toonsterwu on Nov 19, 2009 11:49 AM CST reply actions  

Because Lou's not comfortable

with Marshall and Gaub.

Is he traded yet?

by DGU on Nov 19, 2009 1:02 PM CST up reply actions  

So...

…your saying Hendry has no say in this?

It that’s the case, someone needs to nudge his chair and wake his ass up.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 19, 2009 3:57 PM CST up reply actions  

Give me a break.

a) It’s not as if Grabow is worthless.
b) Hendry works with his managers. That’s the way he works. It’s not changing.
c) We’re talking about a single player filling a role that hasn’t been adequately filled for Lou’s entire tenure.

People act as if a GM and manager don’t have personalities and the best thing is to treat them like computer programs who have to do what they say.

Is he traded yet?

by DGU on Nov 19, 2009 4:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Give me a break...

…everytime Hendry makes a move that may be questionable, the first thing you say is; it is what Lou wanted.

That is real real weak and doesn’t say a whole hell of a lot about Hendry!

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 19, 2009 4:14 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

On the contrary -

when Hendry traded for Gregg last year I said he had made a mistake. In particular, I said he made a mistake because he wasn’t taking into context that Gregg is precisely the kind of reliever that will drive Lou crazy. I don’t expect you to keep track of all my perspectives on every Cub moves. In this case, I’d rather go with Gaub and play hardball with Grabow, using the Type A status as leverage, but I can also understand having spent two years looking for something, having found it, and being willing to overpay by 1-3 M AT MOST, just to be done with it.

Is he traded yet?

by DGU on Nov 19, 2009 4:25 PM CST up reply actions  

what i dont get

is the difference between gregg and grabow…

grabow has the same faults gregg does with command

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 19, 2009 4:29 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree in general.

The difference is that Lou knows what’s he got in Gregg, one would hope

Is he traded yet?

by DGU on Nov 19, 2009 4:52 PM CST up reply actions  

You meant Grabow here, right?

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Nov 19, 2009 5:08 PM CST up reply actions  

right

Grabow

Is he traded yet?

by DGU on Nov 19, 2009 6:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah

A slightly better than replacement level reliever.

by vivaelpujols on Nov 19, 2009 9:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Don't know about Gaub, but Marshall's role would be different

He’s a long relief/spot start guy, not a short reliever. Put Marshall in as the late inning LH but, then who fills his current role?

by ClarkFan on Nov 25, 2009 9:56 AM CST up reply actions  

I guess

they see Grabow as a backup closer option too…

by Bradsbeard on Nov 19, 2009 11:54 AM CST reply actions  

I really hope ...

getting rid of Grabow’s contract isn’t conversation fodder for next offseason. As I said in another thread, I could see this signing going either way.

by elgato on Nov 19, 2009 12:12 PM CST reply actions  

Well, on the bright side...

…I believe Bob Howry had two decent years before he fell apart in the third year of his contract. So maybe Hendry knows what he’s doing signing Grabow to only two years.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Nov 19, 2009 12:17 PM CST up reply actions  

the difference was

bob howry was good before he came to the cubs…

grabow’s never been good

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 19, 2009 1:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, that's true.

I’m looking at Grabow’s BB/9 graph on Fangraphs and it’s not pretty.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Nov 19, 2009 2:03 PM CST up reply actions  

good thing

he’s never going to be asked to pitch 9 innings in a game.

by tripdenten on Nov 19, 2009 2:36 PM CST up reply actions  

Um, i know

It was a joke. Lighten up a bit. We might as well embrace the fact that we’re stuck with Grabow, there’s nothing that anyone can do about it now.

by tripdenten on Nov 19, 2009 3:10 PM CST up reply actions  

At least...

…Howry threw strikes.

In fact, the career he had was amazing considering the guy threw one pitch 95% of the time.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Nov 19, 2009 4:03 PM CST up reply actions  

Yep, and I still think that's what Lou liked about him.

Unfortunately, most of Bobby’s “strikes” these days are flat, up-in-the-zone fastballs – or so it seems.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Nov 20, 2009 9:19 AM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, really.

I’d like to see a plot of Howry’s location year-to-year. He had good enough control not to walk batters, so I wonder if his command was good enough for most of his career that he avoided his 2008 disaster by staying out of the middle of the plate. Relievers can get away with throwing one pitch if it’s a good one. In 2008 he lost velocity, and I’m sure that didn’t help, but I’d be willing to bet he was missing in the zone a lot more than usual.

by aldimond on Nov 20, 2009 8:36 PM CST up reply actions  

MEH.

Don’t care. We kinda could use him, but we could probably spend the money better on something else.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Nov 19, 2009 1:03 PM CST reply actions  

I call this one a wash

He was overpaid but will be solid in the bullpen.

by ak123 on Nov 19, 2009 1:22 PM CST reply actions  

from FanGraph

“Grabow’s FIP the last two years? 4.37, thanks to an atrociously high walk total. The entirety of his low ERA over the last two years is driven by an 82 percent rate of stranding runners, which is just not sustainable. He’s succeeded by putting men on base and then wiggling out of jams, but that’s not the same thing as pitching well.”

Sounds like Carlos Marmol. I think they call this The Rothchild School of Pitching.

by RiskyBusiness on Nov 20, 2009 11:23 AM CST reply actions  

Not really

Grabow had a 1.46 Stikeout to Walk ratio at PIT in 2009. He had a 1.33 ratio with the Cubs.

Either way, I’d rather see that ratio above 2.

by RiskyBusiness on Nov 20, 2009 12:08 PM CST up reply actions  

he had walked

5.3 as a pirate per 9 in 2009

but his career average is 4.1 bb/9

so below his 2009 pirate performance but more walks than his career totals

overall last year his bb’s went up compared to career avgs and his k’s went down

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 20, 2009 1:32 PM CST up reply actions  

"an 82 percent rate of stranding runners is just not sustainable".

After he’s done it for two years? I’d say it IS sustainable.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Nov 20, 2009 4:17 PM CST up reply actions  

and...

the previous 4 years? when his strand rate sat right around league average

was that just coincidence?

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 20, 2009 4:29 PM CST up reply actions  

Al

For some metrics, like K and BB%, that may be the case. However, metrics like strand rate have a ton of “noise” in them. For example, it’s heavily reliant on random timing (which batters you face when) and defense, so it doesn’t reflect a lot of pitchers skill. Strand rate probably takes at least a half a career before it tells you anything meaningful.

by vivaelpujols on Nov 20, 2009 6:16 PM CST up reply actions  

What VEP said...

… plus he’s a reliever. Two seasons of relief is like a half season starting. Anything can happen in that small a number of pitches.

by aldimond on Nov 20, 2009 8:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Yabbut...

… stranding runners is more a reliever’s stat than a starter’s, isn’t it?

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Nov 21, 2009 8:12 AM CST up reply actions  

you're thinking

of stranding inherited runners

strand rate is a measure of the number of runners you allow on that don’t score

this is often impacted by the pitchers behind you. If you let 2-3 guys on in an inning and get pulled with runners on but the guy behind you comes in and strands all of them its not impacting the strand rate of the new reliever, its impacting the strand rate of the reliever who let the runners on

some pitchers can have higher strand rates than the league average but those pitchers tend to have tremendous strikeout rates since the strikeout is the best way to “strand” runners. Grabow’s K Rate has actually declined the last two seasons so it doesn’t make any sense why his strand rate would go up

its pure luck

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 21, 2009 8:58 AM CST up reply actions  

It would be different for starters vs. relievers, wouldn't it?

Starters are likely to put more runners on; relievers are more likely to come in with someone else’s runners on.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Nov 21, 2009 2:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Strand Rate

As shown on FanGraphs, only takes into account the runners that you put on. The formula is this:

(H + BB + HBP – R) / (H + BB + HBP – 1.4 x HR).

So it has nothing to do with inherited runners.

Now, because Grabow is a reliever, and a lefty one at that, he will be in more favorable matchups that the average player, so his strand rate should be a little bit higher than average.

But 82% is waaaay to high to be sustainable.

by vivaelpujols on Nov 21, 2009 3:30 PM CST up reply actions  

I doubt it

Most relief pitchers can’t sustain anything, good or bad. For four straight seasons Grabow sustained an ERA over 4.00 as well. My best guess right now is Grabow returns to an over 4 ERA and gets shuttled to the back of the bullpen after he walks in runs in several appearance. The Cubs are paying this guy well more than anyone else would have. When are Hendry and the rest of Cubs management going to figure out that it isn’t just the big contracts that cause financial problems? An extra million to this guy, a couple million extra to this guy and pretty soon you’ve lost any financial flexibility the franchise might have.

by FrankSereno on Nov 20, 2009 4:26 PM CST reply actions  

could turn

into another howry/eyre situation. big money for an alright pitcher.

by NOMAR on Nov 21, 2009 6:59 AM CST reply actions  

+1

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Nov 21, 2009 1:54 PM CST up reply actions  

+2

Turn it green.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Nov 21, 2009 2:44 PM CST up reply actions  

+3

Kermit the Frog was wrong. It IS easy being green.

"Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfills the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things." ~Winston Churchill

by Goodie1969 on Nov 21, 2009 3:24 PM CST up reply actions  

so is your energy

bitching about the people bitching wasted?

or is that well spent?

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 21, 2009 3:49 PM CST up reply actions   2 recs

I think I've had about three posts on that subject

And you’ve had about 30. (In general, proportional terms, maybe not 3:30 exactly.) So you’re in no position to point fingers, although I’m sure that won’t stop you.

by Not Bruce Froemming on Nov 21, 2009 3:56 PM CST up reply actions  

i find your whole premise hypocritical

I’m pointing fingers?

YOU posted specifically judging and questioning others. I questioned the hypocrisy of that post. As i do again here

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 21, 2009 3:58 PM CST up reply actions  

Christ on a bike

I simply think you’re wasting far, far too much time griping about something that really isn’t that big a deal. And it appears I’m not the only one who thinks that way.

by Not Bruce Froemming on Nov 21, 2009 4:10 PM CST up reply actions  

fair criticism

and i would say your entire presence on this blog is to ridicule the way others post

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 21, 2009 4:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Fair enough

Again, as Frank Zappa once said, “You are what you is.”

by Not Bruce Froemming on Nov 21, 2009 4:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Um...

we can get the same or similar production for the league minimum in a guy like John Gaub. That’ would be roughly 5.5 million saved. It’s not rocket science.

by cubsforever on Nov 23, 2009 10:59 AM CST up reply actions  

Don't count on that.

Gaub has played half a year at Triple-A. You have no idea what he’d do in the major leagues. The Cubs are in win-now mode.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Nov 23, 2009 11:27 AM CST up reply actions  

We have no idea what any ML reliever will do

unless their names are Nathan or Rivera.

Is he traded yet?

by DGU on Nov 23, 2009 11:28 AM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, Hendry should spend some real money on the pitching staff

to trade for and sign Halladay. Then people can bitch about how his 9 CGs and 4 SOs are unsustainable….

by ClarkFan on Nov 25, 2009 10:00 AM CST up reply actions  

+1

Green it up. I see the value in sabermetrics, but they aren’t the Alpha and Omega.

by Not Bruce Froemming on Nov 21, 2009 2:51 PM CST up reply actions  

exactly my point.

they have value no doubt at all, but people have started putting too much value into them

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Nov 21, 2009 3:21 PM CST up reply actions  

What does that have to do with any of this?

You don’t need a projection system to tell you that paying Grabow 7 million is overpaying.

Also, it’s ridiculous to say that FO offices don’t use projections. They may not use CHONE or PECOTA, but they have to have some projection of their players future performance. How else would they make decisions?

by vivaelpujols on Nov 21, 2009 3:32 PM CST up reply actions  

what does it have to do with this?

well, it is a prime example of wanting to use stats alone to make a decision, when the front office I am sure knows more than those making these graphs and projections, and actually are knowledgable to inside information (both physical, mental, etc) when making their decisions.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Nov 21, 2009 3:44 PM CST up reply actions  

I get what you are saying Cubbie

However, I don’t have as much faith in front offices as you do. Deals like the K-Rod signing last year, or the Carlos Lee signing have made me rather wary of the way some front offices think.

If it’s a move that’s on the border, I’ll give the team the benefit of the doubt, as they do have more info than fans. However, when it’s a move like signing a mediocre middle reliever to a 7 million dollar deal, I just can’t possibly envision a way in which this makes sense.

by vivaelpujols on Nov 21, 2009 3:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Their "inside information" on Milton Bradley

appears to have been faulty intelligence.

"Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfills the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things." ~Winston Churchill

by Goodie1969 on Nov 21, 2009 5:02 PM CST up reply actions  

and how many times has the inside info paid off?

its all a gamble, no matter how much you do or do not know, and unlike the rest of us, they are paid to make the gamble with their knowledge, connections, etc. we (people on a blog, the multitude of stat sites with various projection modules, etc) are not professional MLB front office execs. The various modules are great tools, but are not the reason a team or player will or will not have a good season.

Jimmy Johnson said on NFL Pregame today “there comes the time you throw every projection, stat, and logic out and coach the game” when talking about the questionable calls last weekend by NE and Jacksonville. Makes a lot of sense, after all if the stats alone were how the game were to be done, no manager would be needed, and the players would just walk off the field when there is a better option based 100% on the stats and projections at that moment.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Nov 22, 2009 4:52 PM CST up reply actions  

Jimmy Johnson said what?

Look, no manager goes and runs a Monte Carlo simulation before deciding whether to have a player lay down a bunt or swing away. But when he makes a decision he surely bases it on logic of some kind. He may base it on rules of thumb derived from analysis and experience. That’s a lot different from “throwing out every projection, stat, and logic”.

Furthermore, there are game theory considerations suggesting that a game participant should not always do what is optimal on the surface, because that can sometimes allow opponents to set more effective strategies against him. A manager that calls for the hit-and-run robotically gives the opposing manager a great idea of when to pitch out. In football you might have a gadget play that averages a lot of yards, but you can’t use it too often, or use it predictably. I’m reminded of a game I saw a while ago where Deion Sanders was inserted at WR for one play in the middle of a drive to run a reverse… needless to say, everyone in the house knew what was coming, and the D sniffed it out. You have to put Deion in as a WR on some other plays, too, even if he sucks at route-running and blocking and stuff. There is almost never a “100% best option”. Just a lot of things that might work.

by aldimond on Nov 22, 2009 7:56 PM CST up reply actions  

all due respet

I will take the word of SB winning coach. There are times you go with gut feeling, and go against the odds, etc.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Nov 22, 2009 8:22 PM CST up reply actions  

And I think the SB-winning coach didn't express himself very well.

His “gut feeling” doesn’t come from his damn gut. It comes from his mind. He’s watched his players, watched lots of film, and the “gut feeling” he gets is a result of his mind synthesizing all his information and experience into an idea of what to do. Not all, or even most, of this information is numeric — one of the big differences between me and Jimmy Johnson is that he has a personal connection to football players, understands them physically and emotionally. I would trust Jimmy Johnson to make decisions over me in football every time.

A bunch of geeks on the Internet could spend hours dissecting the coach’s decision, but the coach has to make it on the spot. It’s hard. I’m not saying that the coach does what the geeks do, or that he should. What I’m saying is that he does not throw logic out the window. His decision is based on his own logic, and is synthesized from information nobody else has.

The point of my last paragraph in the other post is that sometimes “going against the odds” is exactly the right thing to do, even from a statistician’s perspective. Jimmy and me probably believe pretty similar things about strategy, but (a) we arrived at them in very different ways and (b) he didn’t really express himself well in one random quote on TV.

by aldimond on Nov 22, 2009 8:46 PM CST up reply actions  

which is why the games are played

since the gut feeling (which was understood what it is) does not coincide with the stats and percentages. The coach calls for what he believes is the best call, no matter what the stats say.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Nov 22, 2009 9:10 PM CST up reply actions  

The front offices know more.

But the publicly-available info doesn’t look good on this one. The magnitude of additional knowledge necessary to justify Grabow’s contract would be pretty large.

Grabow absolutely could live up to the deal. He’s a reliever, anything could happen. I’d have to see a lot of inside info to convince me it’s likely that he will.

by aldimond on Nov 22, 2009 8:14 PM CST up reply actions  

and lefties

usually draw more interest and more money, simply for being left handed.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Nov 22, 2009 8:24 PM CST up reply actions  

That's not secret GM knowledge.

That’s public knowledge, and has been taken into account. We’re still looking at the need for lots of insider knowledge.

by aldimond on Nov 22, 2009 8:50 PM CST up reply actions  

my point is that is a big reason

he was “over paid” as some as stating, when in reality it was probably damn close to being “market value”

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Nov 22, 2009 9:12 PM CST up reply actions  

some are***

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Nov 22, 2009 9:12 PM CST up reply actions  

MLB front office people...

…may not “do” these projection systems, but certain ones do use them. I give you the Boston Red Sox – a team that’s had some moderate, under-the-radar success thus far in the 21st Century. (<— Sarcasm.)

Exactly which systems they use is hard to say, because I believe that’s kept confidential. They may even have their own proprietary projection systems. But don’t think for a second today’s savvier teams aren’t looking very closely at the kinds of numbers and calculations you see on Fangraphs and on the CHONE projection site.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Nov 22, 2009 11:12 AM CST up reply actions  

I am sure they use it,

but it is not their lone reason to make a move.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Nov 22, 2009 4:53 PM CST up reply actions  

And James would be the first to tell you that...

… statistics aren’t everything.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Nov 25, 2009 1:05 PM CST up reply actions  

based on the stats alone

would they have traded Manny? I doubt it personally.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Nov 25, 2009 5:40 PM CST up reply actions  

that was definitely a tough spot for Epstein...

but I’m sure James made it easier to let him go based on his defense

by Andronicus on Nov 25, 2009 9:34 PM CST up reply actions  

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