Cubs 2010 2B and "the L word"
There has been some speculation that the Cubs would be fine with Jeff Baker at 2B. However, in the most recent Paul Sullivan piece, he writes:
One of the more popular free agents on the market, the Cardinals' DeRosa is drawing no interest from his former team, despite inquiries made to the Indians last May after Aramis Ramirez's shoulder injury. The Cubs still prefer a left-handed hitting second baseman, which is why they're interested in the switch-hitting Castillo.
Now, there's a statement to raise the ire of many different Cub partisans - those who love DeRo, those who don't want Castillo, those who want to see Jeff Baker get the job, and those who thought we were past the LH obsession.
Now it is possible that Sullivan is mis-reading things, that the Cubs are planning to split 2B evenly between Fontenot and Baker and that there's "interest" in Castillo only as a Bradley exit strategy. But I figure it's worth reconsidering what the 2B options are, with Bill James projections a guess at defensive value based on the past three years of UZR.
Mike Fontenot Age 30 .273/.343/.415 with very good defense
Jeff Baker Age 28 .280/.337/.460 with average defense
Luis Castillo Age 34 .282/.363/.331 with very poor defense
Orlando Hudson Age 32 .280/.357/.417 with mildly below average defense
Felipe Lopez Age 30 .281/.352/.400 with mildly above average defense
Adam Kennedy Age 34 .270/.332/.373 with a big question mark at defense (see past two years' UZRs)
Now, I know some of you won't be able to buy into this Fontenot projection - but why not, really? If you push him back to part-time play, why shouldn't he split the difference between his very good 2008 and very bad 2009?
And if you buy into these projections, it doesn't look like Lopez or Hudson offer enough over what we have in-house to pay them what would be significantly more money. If you had to pick one of the free agents, Felipe Lopez was very good last year, both offensively and defensively - if you buy him taking a step forward.
But with multiple middle infield options in the pipeline, you definitely don't want to do a multi-year deal - so, again, keeping Fontenot and Baker seems like the best option.
What are your thoughts? Any options on the trade market you'd consider that I haven't included here?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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You should add Theriot to your poll
it will bring a smile to ol’ SWL’s face…
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Can a vote be changed?
"Fasten those seatbelts"-Pat Hughes
by katie casey on Nov 22, 2009 12:50 PM CST up reply actions
Orlando Hudson was a gold glover this year.
How exactly is he mildly below average?
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
defensive metrics
have pointed to Orlando’s decline in recent years. Many people believe that he’s living off his former accomplishments in that regards.
Okay be that as it may...
…who is better? In particular as an option to the 2010 Cubs.
Would you really consider Orlando has below average? I certainly wouldn’t, but I’m not a stats guy and I’m willing to listen to why I’m wrong.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
Hudson's UZR/150 scores the past 5 years
2005: 9.1
2006: -0.7
2007: 0.5
2008: -7.6
2009: -3.7
He’s also well past his defensive prime.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 21, 2009 11:51 PM CST up reply actions
Again...
…use the UZR stats to show me who would be a better option for the Cubs.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
I don't care about that
I was addressing this:
Would you really consider Orlando has below average? I certainly wouldn’t, but I’m not a stats guy and I’m willing to listen to why I’m wrong.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 22, 2009 12:34 AM CST up reply actions
I'm using UZR above
so, UZR suggests Lopez, Baker, and Fontenot would all be better 2Bs than Hudson. Fontenot’s defense is very strong by UZR; if you buy that, it’s a reason for him to stay. Baker also had a really strong year last year in a small sample size. That really surprises me since he’s a converted 3B. I’d like to have access to scouting reports on his defense.
Is he traded yet?
You understand UZR is a defensive measurement only, right?
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Time for statistical measurement of actual performance to catch up with the Gold Glove awards
Right now, they are about as performance-based as voting for homecoming queen.
Also isn't Fontenot pretty much gone...
…because of the super two status? Not to mention having Miles and Blanco?
Honest questions, not trying to push buttons.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
He doesn't have to be gone; he just has to be paid better.
Or released and re-signed maybe – I don’t understand all the rules.
But many have assumed he’d be released, despite Hendry giving several indications that he’ll be back.
Is he traded yet?
Fontenot's going to get a $250k or so raise, esp after last season
There’s no way he makes more than a million. Super Two status isn’t going to break the bank at all.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett
Miles is likely gone due to poor performance and Blanco is a weak RH hitter
Unlike Bradley, Miles’ contract is closer to bite-size. Blanco fields well, but doesn’t hit well enough to be a real alternative or someone you want to plug in every day if Ramirez were to spend time on the DL again.
If Fontenot doesn’t get too expensive, he could well be the LH half of a 2B platoon.
I like Baker at 2B...
To me there’s no reason to look around for other options there. He showed me enough last year to convince me that he’s fine at 2B.
As an aside, weren’t you the one who was talking him up alot when he was first acquired and many were against the acquisition?
I voted the same.
Baker is okay at 2B. And considering the options available, it doesn’t seem reasonable to go out and get another guy.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
I did talk up Baker
and do like Baker. I’d be happy to go with Baker at 2B, but am responding to the idea in Sullivan that the Cubs want a LH bat at 2B.
Is he traded yet?
well, I'm sure you realize there's a difference between Sullivan saying the Cubs want a LH bat at 2B...
…and the Cubs actually wanting a LH bat at 2B.
I read the same article and my impression is that it was a slow news day for the Cubs so let’s see what we can churn up from the recycled news item bin…
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Right
In the post I show skepticism that Sullivan is right and I’m happy to echo that again and again and again.
I suspect the Cubs plan to use Baker and Fontenot the same way they used DeRosa and Fontenot in 2008, although Baker may sit more than DeRosa did.
Is he traded yet?
If they go this route (Baker/Fontenot), I suspect the playing time split will be largely dependent on Fontenot
If it’s 2008 Fontenot, it may turn into a more traditional platoon with Fonty getting most of the ABs at 2B and Baker filling in elsewhere as needed. But if it’s the 2009 Fontenot, Baker will see more ABs against the RHers.
I think Baker’s pretty much a known quantity in Lou/Hendry’s eyes – it’s Fontenot that they’re unsure of. I realize it’s a SSS wrt Baker, especially his time with the Cubs, but I just get the sense Lou/Hendry are more confident with their expectations of Baker than Fontenot.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Which is understandable
since Fontenot was all over the place and Baker has only been good. I can see a scenario next year where both are very good and we have one of the top 10 2B production teams in baseball.
Is he traded yet?
Two options
One thing that I wonder is whether or not there should be serious consideration of moving Theriot to 2B. Unless a trade is made, Starlin Castro is the long term solution at SS and if Theriot is in the Cubs long term plans, it will likely be at 2B. Moving Theriot over to 2B removes the questionable arm and the Cubs can find a stopgap at SS.
A second thought is Marco Scutaro. I don’t expect him to match his 2009 season and he’s no spring chicken, but he may be worth a one year deal + option. He can play 2B or SS and isn’t likely to break the bank.
I'm not against Scutaro
on a limited deal, something like 2 years, 8 million. I’d be open to that.
That said, as one of the best shortstop options on the market, I’d be surprised if he can’t pluck a 3rd year. I’m not willing to go a 3rd year – 2 years I can live with (2010 as a leadoff option that plays MI, 2011 as a potential backup MI).
The other big issue is that, if I’m not mistaken, he’s a Type A guy, and I don’t want to give up a pick for him, even if it’s a 2nd rounder. I mean, he’s basically similar to the Theriot of 2008.
you're correct
Scutaro is a Type A. Interestingly the word on Scutaro is that the Jays likely will offer arb and he may actually accept.
Scutaro is going to get a lot of money this year
He really had quite an amazing season.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 21, 2009 11:52 PM CST up reply actions
I didn't include guys like Scutaro or Polanco
in this because I was focusing on the LH options. If there was an obvious LH option for SS, I’d include that, but I don’t think Craig Counsell really counts.
Is he traded yet?
I think the Theriot/Castro move is a year or 2 away
But it makes sense.
Scutaro will want more money
and more years than he is worth. He is a journeyman who had a career year, so why overpay for him?
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Nov 23, 2009 11:27 AM CST up reply actions
I would love to see Lopez in a Cub's Uni next year
Plus he is able to cover about ever position except catcher.
That’s not true!!! WHY THE F*CK WOULD YOU SAY THAT YOU AHOLE!! Ok maybe your right but you gotta give a little something here for it to work. I don’t know what I’m going to do this is the worst thing I’ve ever read, this day could not get any worse. Fine, F*ck it, you’re right.
by Ditkavsworld
Here's an option on the trade market: Alberto Callaspo
Age 27 .287/.345/.410 with questionable defense, but position flexibility
Is he traded yet?
He's not a good hitter from the left side, though
Career OPS as a lefty: .709
As a righty: 827
He was the player Arizona dumped because of alleged wife-beating. I think the Royals felt he could go through some treatment in a new location without a lot of media attention.
From Wikipedia: “Callaspo was arrested on Thursday, May 10, 2007 by Phoenix police for domestic violence at his home; the charges for Callaspo were later dropped. He was placed on the restricted list without pay the day after the arrest.2 The MLBPA filed a grievance on his behalf3 and he was reinstated within a week. Callaspo and his wife, Marianny Paola, remain together, and they have one child.”
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
Good catch.
It was always a stretch to see him on the Cubs- and that was before you brought to light his off-field issues and unhelpful splits.
Is he traded yet?
Interesting idea.
I’m not really familiar with Callaspo but looks like he had a great season at the plate this year (.352 wOBA in 634 PAs). UZR says he wasn’t so good in the field at second base. But he’s 26, which isn’t too bad age-wise. I’d agree that he’s worth considering.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
I want Sandberg in the dugout.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 22, 2009 9:51 AM CST up reply actions
Sandberg
This is neither a pro or anti-Sandberg thing, but I think this assertion only holds true if Hendry is around. If the Cubs have a sub par 2010, don’t make the playoffs, I think its very possible that Hendry is gone, or at the very least put into a situation where he has a true baseball guy to answer to (the Sandy Alderson type that we’ve discussed). A new GM or a new front office structure means that those guys bring along their guys and that means they hire their guy to be the manager. Maybe a new GM hires Sandberg as manager, but maybe not.
But he could still get like a bench coach job
That’s not true!!! WHY THE F*CK WOULD YOU SAY THAT YOU AHOLE!! Ok maybe your right but you gotta give a little something here for it to work. I don’t know what I’m going to do this is the worst thing I’ve ever read, this day could not get any worse. Fine, F*ck it, you’re right.
by Ditkavsworld
fontenot
seems to get penalized more then the other players for his poor 09 season. i think we were depending more on guys like soriano,soto,and bradley than mike. i still like the pop in his bat and if lou uses him correctly then maybe he goes back to his 08 numbers. if he remains with the team.
by NOMAR on Nov 22, 2009 7:13 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
+ 100
Fontenot had a hot year in 08, but wasn’t playing full time. In 09, we looked for miracles when the men who brought home the bacon served up fried squirrel or were on the DH and Fontenot was, I think, relied on too much.
I never want to see him at 3B again. Ever.
Blue mountains high .. Blue valleys low
I don't know which way we will go ..
One summer dream .. one summer dream ..
coda
ELO, 1975
yessa
how can you not like a guy who Big Z gets to pound into the dirt every game?

Blue mountains high .. Blue valleys low
I don't know which way we will go ..
One summer dream .. one summer dream ..
coda
ELO, 1975
by cubnational on Nov 23, 2009 11:06 PM CST up reply actions
I don't penalize Fontenot
This is the one time I penalize Lou.
Fontenot in 2007 and 2008 was used to the teams advantage. They played him when he had a hot bat and sat him down every other time. Unfortunately hit bat only got hot in small spurts this year and batting every day hurt the team more than it helped.
And this above average defense I keep on reading? No offense, I watched many games this year, he didn’t really impress me that much at 2B. There were a few defensive gems but no more and no less than your run of the mill 2B. For his height he’s good but I don’t factor in height with skills.
My guess is Cubs stick with in-house options
Unless of course they swap Bradley to the Mets and pick up the very bad Luis Castillo.
"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)
You left a choice out of your poll.
You said, “Fontenot/Baker splitting time evenly”.
What about a straight platoon of Fontenot & Baker?
Fontenot career vs RHP: .272/.348/.435, .783 OPS
Baker career vs LHP: .285/.346/.543, .889 OPS
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
that would result
in the larger share going to Fontenot. I don’t think he’s proved he can do that.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Nov 22, 2009 10:10 AM CST up reply actions
Yes, he has.
He did it in 2008.
.302/.393/.518, .911 OPS vs. RHP in 227 AB.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
That is less than a full platoon
given that RHP are well more that 50% of major league arms.
I’m not giving up on Fotenot just yet, but he probably is better in a less than full platoon role.
227 AB
is not even close to what he’ll see as the half of a platoon facing RHP.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Nov 22, 2009 7:00 PM CST up reply actions
It's enough to make it worth the Cubs while in keeping him around.
See how he can do when he’s not thrust into the 3b job and facing LHP
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett
I didn't think anyone would voote for that
after this past year. I should have added it though.
Is he traded yet?
Call me crazy...
But I’d rather have Theriot move over to 2nd (his future and natural position anyway), and either sign a veteran SS or have Blanco give us some actual SS defense next year. Then if Castro comes up mid-season as some have been speculating, he’s your new SS. Baker becomes your super-utility guy, and Aaron Miles and Fontenot take a trip to DFA or get traded.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Nov 22, 2009 11:41 AM CST reply actions
I agree with you......if Luis Castillo is the option at 2b,
….good god that would be a terrible move. A malcontent over the hill player who’s best asset was speed.
Theriot v. Baker
Theriot’s projected to hit .284/.352/.357. Baker would lose you .015 OBP, but gain over .100 pts of SLG. Theriot was a good defender at 2B and would be better than Baker, but you shouldn’t play Theriot over Baker if you’re going by the numbers – and that’s leaving Fontenot out of the question.
No, Theriot’s value comes in his playing SS well enough to make UZR like him there. If y ou want to move him this year, then trade him. That’s precisely what I’ve suggested we do, hoping that Theriot can be included in a Granderson deal to defray prospect costs. Theriot’s value is only going down – moving him off SS to block players with more upside doubly doesn’t make sense to me unless you really believe in his intangibles.
Is he traded yet?
You're going off projections...
Theriot has hit well enough the last two years to be an everyday player on this team, and he’s a better defender at 2nd than Baker. Also, Baker’s value to the team is playing that super-utility role. He can fill in for Aramis at 3rd, the corner OF spots (because you know Soriano and Bradley will need time off), and sub for Theriot when needed.
You have to leave Fontenot out of the equation, because frankly, he doesn’t have a role on this team anymore.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Nov 22, 2009 12:16 PM CST up reply actions
I'm still not buying Baker in that "super-utility" role.
He’s never really done it before. Just because we don’t have Mark DeRosa any more, doesn’t mean that someone who plays a couple of the positions that DeRo did can suddenly become a “supersub”.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
If you're a projections-atheist
you can go by last season’s actual #s, where Theriot and Baker had the same OBP and Baker had a higher SLG by .050 pts.
Theriot has earned a chance to be an everyday SS – but he doesn’t have the bat to be a 2B. Luis Castillo, for example, has the same bat as Theriot but as a switch-hitter and with better running skills. If Castillo is “bad” Theriot would be worse.
Is he traded yet?
Defense matters, DGU
Given that he’s an average-ish SS (as frustrating as it can be to watch him) you’d have to think that he’s at least as good defensively as Fontenot, and probably better. Both of them would be better than Baker on defense. Of course, baserunning is another story (dying laughing)
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett
Defense does matter
and Theriot’s UZR at 2B is very good in limited ML experience.
Is it good enough to overcome Baker’s power? I don’t think so.
Is he traded yet?
It's very limited
but you can usually extrapolate a player’s stats based on other positions. Going from SS to 2b would improve his numbers by about 5 runs.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett
Overcome?
I’ll take very good defense over a little bit of power. Let’s not get carried away here, Baker is no Chase Utley or Ian Kinsler.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Nov 22, 2009 7:25 PM CST up reply actions
Theriot has no power.
When he tried to add power to his game, he screwed up his bat for months.
Baker’s moderate power makes his bat much more useful.
Is he traded yet?
he screwed up his bat for months.
its still screwed up
1 Aaron down, 1 to go
by jesus christos on Nov 22, 2009 8:41 PM CST up reply actions
Baker only had...
226 ABs last year, compared to Theriot’s 602 last year and 580 in 2008; you pretty much know what to expect from Theriot with the bat. You don’t really know that Baker’s numbers will translate to a full season.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Nov 22, 2009 2:12 PM CST up reply actions
you pretty much know what to expect from Theriot with the bat.
yep, 25 home runs from our power hitting SS
1 Aaron down, 1 to go
by jesus christos on Nov 22, 2009 2:13 PM CST up reply actions
Who said Theriot had power?
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Nov 22, 2009 2:28 PM CST up reply actions
theriot is one of the greatest power hitting SS's in history
just ask theriot
1 Aaron down, 1 to go
by jesus christos on Nov 22, 2009 3:11 PM CST up reply actions
It's precisely because I know what to expect from Theriot
that I’m looking for a better bat. He can’t lead off and w/o any power, he’s practically worthless at the bottom of the lineup. He doesn’t fit other than as a placeholder who minimizes the number of outs he makes from the batter’s box.
Is he traded yet?
Worthless?
He numbers would look pretty damn good in the 8th spot, not sure how he is worthless. If you want to talk about value, his WAR has been around 3 the last two years, while Baker’s around 1. I’ll take those 2 extra wins.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Nov 22, 2009 7:29 PM CST up reply actions
baker was also a utility player with the rockies
im no stat master but im guessing starters will have a higher WAR then utility guys
1 Aaron down, 1 to go
by jesus christos on Nov 22, 2009 7:31 PM CST up reply actions
What's ironic...
…is that I would guess Theriot’s DEFENSE AT SHORTSTOP must have bolstered his WAR over the last three years, because his wOBA in 2007 and 2009 was pretty awful. I know WAR takes into account more than just those two things, though, so maybe a Sabermagician can confirm.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Well, it's a positional adjustment thing
The fact that he can even play an average (ish) SS gives him some value.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett
Why does he look good in the 8th spot?
He won’t drive in any one on base in front of him. His walks and singles – in front of the pitcher – are not so useful. His poor baserunning skills are also an issue down in the lineup where you want to play more small ball.
If Theriot can get his OBP back to .380, then he can leadoff or bat 2nd, but I don’t think he can.
Is he traded yet?
Won't drive in runs?
I’m not really familiar with this as a high standard for an 8th place hitter in the NL. I don’t think I can name any team with a “RBI guy” in the 8th spots.
Aren’t singles and walks getting on in front of the P a good thing, since it allows them to bunt? While the Cubs have some of the stronger hitting SPs in the league, you still want most of your SPs bunting.
True Theriot wouldn’t drive in any runs… but if he could boost his OBP – even if to .360 – then that seems a reasonable fit for the 8th spot.
BTW… I’m all for moving Theriot. I’m just debating the aspects of the 8th spot.
I voted for Fontenot and Baker splitting time evenly
But I want Fontenot on a short leash. It’s true that he was only one of the big disappointments last year. But we’re stuck with Soriano, MB has a huge contract (and actually didn’t have a horrible offensive season) and we should give Soto a chance because he has bigger upside AND plays a harder position to fill. That’s why Fontenot gets a lot of attention — he sucked in ‘09 AND he’s easiest to replace.
I’d also say that I’m OK with a Fontenot/Baker sort of platoon if the Cubs upgrade elsewhere, like getting Granderson. Otherwise, the Cubs should look at using the little money they have to upgrade at second.
Not excited about the trade/FA options at 2B/SS this offseason
I’d rather see the Cubs go big after Granderson (and Halladay?), and get enough fielding to make the middle IF work. Fielding in CF was a much bigger problem in 2009 and Soriano will still need cover in 2010.
Of course, Granderson is an “L,” too. ;-)
This will probably not happen...
but since we’re supposedly talking mostly to the Rays about Bradley, I’d love to find a way to get Willy Aybar tossed into the deal. Probably not a full time guy either, but he’s a switch hitter who could play 2d, 3d, or 1st with some nice pop in his bat, decent glove too. Other than as Longoria’s backup, I don’t see the Rays desperately needing his services. His numbers aren’t spectacular or anything, I could just see him breaking out with more regular playing time.
But otherwise, I think a 50/50 Fontenot/Baker platoon is the way to go. Leverage both of them in the most favorable situations, and pay at most $1.5M for your 2B position. On a similar note, I am fairly comfortable with re-signing Johnson and giving him and Sam Fuld a similar split in center. Even with a modest raise for Johnson (although I think we might be able to get a small discount), you’d only be paying about $4M for your CF. Swap Bradley for Pat Burrell, and then it’s smooth sailing until spring training.
Realistically speaking, I guess I'll stick with the Fontenot/Baker platoon for the time being.
To be honest, if Baker has a good spring training, I think he could snag the job outright. But I think his versatility might well turn the position back toward a platoon eventually anyway.
I must admit, though, I’m somewhat tempted by the charming specter of Orlando Hudson. His defense does appear to be slipping, but he’s still a good hitter. And if I dare bring clubhouse chemistry into the discussion, O-Dawg is pretty much the diametric opposite of Milton Bradley. Not sure whether the budget would allow for his acquisition, however.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Question.
If Hudson’s so good, why wasn’t he starting for the Dodgers in the playoffs?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Because Joe Torre decided to make his team worse.
That is, at least according to this Fangraphs article.
Seriously, my best guess is Torre fell in love with Belliard’s “clutchiness.” I wasn’t following the situation all that closely, though.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Belliard was red hot at the time
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
yeah, how awesome would that be?
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is." -- Yogi Berra

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