Why The Cubs Should Sign Chad Tracy
While all of us are awaiting Thanksgiving dinner and the Cubs to trade Milton Bradley (not necessarily in that order), I thought I'd start an occasional series on players who might otherwise fly under the radar who I think could help the Cubs in 2010.
Obviously, this wouldn't be one of the "sexy" free-agent signings that the Cubs have had in the past -- and given the player payroll constraints, they're not likely to have one of those this offseason. But there were plenty of holes in the Cubs' offense last year, particularly on the bench, that need to be addressed. The 2008 Cubs had a productive starting lineup and a solid bench, and that's one of the reasons they led the National League in runs scored. The Cubs need to solidify the bench as well as answer the obvious questions (such as how and where Bradley will be dealt and who will be acquired to replace him).
It's pretty clear to me that Micah Hoffpauir is exactly who a lot of us said he was -- a Quadruple-A player, someone who can dominate at the Triple-A level but is exposed in the major leagues. Getting extended playing time in 2009 due to injuries, Hoffpauir hit .239/.300/.427 and hit so poorly from June 1-August 2 (.179/.216/.357) that he had to be sent back to Iowa, returning to Wrigley Field with the Iowa Cubs on August 9 and joking that he just wanted to pick up a pair of pants he had left in the clubhouse when the Cubs left on a road trip. Plus, Hoffpauir will be 30 years old on March 1; I think he's had his proverbial 15 minutes.
Chad Tracy, who is only a couple of months younger than Hoffpauir (he'll be 30 on May 22), looked like he was on his way to becoming a solid major league regular after having 20-HR seasons in 2005 and 2006 and OPS of .911 and .794 in those two seasons. After the 2006 season the Diamondbacks signed him to a three-year deal worth $13.25 million, with a $7 million club option for 2010 (and a $1 million buyout). Almost immediately, Tracy got hurt -- he had a rib injury, an oblique injury, a knee injury that required surgery at the end of spring training in 2008, and a couple of minor injuries including another oblique. Here's a list of all of his various DL stints.
His production, naturally, tumbled; he never had any semblance of regular playing time over the last three years and his OPS of .695 in 2009 was the worst of his career. On November 5 the D'backs declined his option and paid him the $1 million buyout.
Nevertheless, after Tracy came back from the last injury in September, he hit pretty well in a small-sample-size 31 plate appearances, drawing six walks and hitting a pair of doubles and another pair of homers.
Tracy can play 1B, 3B and the corner outfield spots. No one's asking him to be a superstar or even a starting player. But playing part-time, if he's healthy, he'd be a fine addition to the Cubs' bench -- and he hits lefthanded, which should please Lou Piniella. He'll probably never get back to his 2005-06 level of production, but he doesn't need to -- just be a good option off the bench, and provide a real backup third baseman, something the Cubs did not have in 2009.
I'd offer him a one-year deal with protection for the team if he spends too much time on the DL, and possibly an option year that would vest with a certain number of plate appearances. He's the perfect choice to replace the unproductive Hoffpauir.
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152 comments
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Comments
We all know
we need to have contingency plans for injuries that we didn’t have last year. Tracy seems like a viable candidate for multiple positions and would be worth a risk with his bat.
This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).
by mrcubsfan on Nov 24, 2009 8:44 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Agree.....the bench was a huge weakness last year
…and this could be a nice fit, as long as Free Spendin Jim doesnt overpay him.
by JB 23 on Nov 24, 2009 8:48 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
3 years, $12M should get the job done.
by Flatley on Nov 24, 2009 9:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You forgot to throw in...
A no trade clause
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
by Musicdude10 on Nov 24, 2009 10:09 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Damn it, I did.
And how about a fourth year player’s option?
by Flatley on Nov 24, 2009 10:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
As long as he plays 75 games in the first year?
Done.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 10:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You forgot to include a ntc
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
by Musicdude10 on Nov 24, 2009 10:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So long as Hendry is GM, it's a given.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Nov 24, 2009 11:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
...and back-load it
Just win the next game...!
by blackhawk24 on Nov 24, 2009 1:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Tracy
In the words of BCB, adding Chad Tracy would be…MEH.
Yes, he might improve the bench. But this team as it is currently constructed has more glaring holes than the bench if it has any ideas of contending for a World Series, not just a division title, in 2010. Namely, the starting rotation, the bullpen, the middle infield and the huge problem it has in LF. Obviously not all of those issues can be resolved prior to 2010 but signing bench players probably should be prioritized after some of the other issues are fixed.
And yes, I excluded Bradley from the list above on purpose. His issue is something altogether different and in my opinion has nothing to do with the actual production the 2010 team will have on the field.
Who needs a stinkin' tag line? What are they for anyway?
by krummy12 on Nov 24, 2009 9:26 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
This post specifically said...
… that this signing is not the be-all and end-all. However, sometimes when a player is out there who can fill a need, you sign him before someone else gets him, even if the other issues aren’t done.
The way you talk about this team it’s as if they are coming off a 90-loss year. The starting rotation is fine. LF is what it is, and presuming Soriano returns to his 2007-08 level of production, he’ll be fine.
You have to make moves when they’re available. Tracy’s available now.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 9:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I know that,
But why make a case about why the cubs should sign a guy who’d be the 12th hitter on the team. His bat is regressing. Somehow, that’s possible. Chad Tracy is all sorts of bad and there has to be a better option. Hell, as much as I hate DeRosa, I’d rather have him than Tracy.
by LetsMakeADeal on Nov 24, 2009 10:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
DeRosa
will command more years and dollars than Tracy. Tracy wouldn’t be a bad option off the bench, and the Cubs NEED someone who can play 3B other than Ramirez.
by DMCub on Nov 24, 2009 11:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Right.
You might be able to get Tracy for … well, about what Aaron Miles is getting. DeRosa will ask for more.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 11:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not just ask for more
He deserves more. And a guy like DeRosa should play every day, not be a bench player. DeRosa is good but not what we need
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
by Musicdude10 on Nov 24, 2009 2:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
2 million here, 3 million there
spending what seem to be insignificant amounts of money on insignificant positions can add up when you have budget constraints
by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 24, 2009 2:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yep.
i wouldn’t pay Tracy anything more than the deal Vizquel just got…
by Andronicus on Nov 24, 2009 7:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not regressing - injured.
Chad Tracy has been injured the past three years – no one knows if his skills are deteriorating because of age. He is precisely the kind of player you want to pick up if his health records look good. He could bounce back and be good for years to come – much, much more than our 12th man.
The idea that you’d rather have DeRosa than Tracy misses the whole point of this conversation. We’re not talking about choosing between Mark DeRosa a starter and Chad Tracy. We’re talking about choosing between Tracy and guys like Hoffpauir, Fox, and Fontenot.
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 24, 2009 12:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
if there's no clear evidence
of his health
why spend more money on a potentially “slight” upgrade in a limited role
we shouldn’t be thinking of ways to spend more money on guys who wouldn’t get 200 ABs
by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 24, 2009 2:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
There's no clear evidence of his health for us.
But there will be for the Cubs. And if he’s healthy, he could end up being an upgrade on Fukudome – not just Hoffpauir
I’ll not complain if we don’t get Tracy, but if we do, I’ll expect the Cubs will have done their due diligence and we’ll be glad to have him.
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 24, 2009 3:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, because it never happens
that a player who is injury risky can look good and still turn out to be injured. The Red Sox thought he was a good idea the year before we did.
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 25, 2009 10:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And Miller cost the Cubs virtually nothing.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 25, 2009 10:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
virtually nothing
we did pay him 2.5 million over 2 years and he earned negative value
these small losses add up over time. I think this is where we differ Al, two million here, 1.5 million there, its all small potatoes to you. But when they’re consistently mistakes they add up to significant losses
by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 25, 2009 10:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wade Miller isn't a consistent mistake
- he’s a risk that didn’t pan out.
As a different but similar kind of example – look at Carlos Pena – both the Red Sox and Yankees spent time and money investing in him in their systems. It was a good idea to invest in him, even if he didn’t pay off.
I view Tracy as similar to Pena in that way – that, yes, he’s 30, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t finally find it on a more consistent basis now. Taking risks on players with talent is a good idea – sometimes they turn into Carlos Pena and Chris Carpenter and sometimes they turn into Wade Miller – that’s why it’s a risk.
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 25, 2009 11:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Cubs did exactly this with Ryan Dempster.
I’d say that’s a very strong pitching comp to Tracy — a pitcher who had had a couple of good years, then got hurt, and the Cubs picked him up off the scrap heap and he’s provided good pitching for six years.
The only difference is that Dempster was 26 when the Cubs signed him and Tracy is 30.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 25, 2009 12:46 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
would this mean the end of the aaron miles era?
Wrigley Bound in the Summer of 2010
by Chanman25 on Nov 24, 2009 9:47 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
If it happens, yes.
I’m prepared to fly my W flag at half mast, to commiserate the passing of an era.
by Flatley on Nov 24, 2009 9:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
pity
I never knew we could have a player worse than neifi..
Wrigley Bound in the Summer of 2010
by Chanman25 on Nov 24, 2009 9:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Dare to dream, my friend.
Dare to dream.
by Flatley on Nov 24, 2009 10:04 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The saddest part about Miles
is that Jason Marquis is a better hitter, and probably a better SS as well.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 24, 2009 6:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
well...
I’d like to think the end of the Aaron Miles era is a foregone conclusion…and doesn’t require any other event to happen (outside of trading him for a roll of paper towels).
by doc_blume on Nov 24, 2009 9:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
eh, well I'll be at peace when he isn't on the roster
until then…aaah….
Wrigley Bound in the Summer of 2010
by Chanman25 on Nov 24, 2009 9:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to think...
… that if the Cubs offer to take someone else’s bad contract in return for Bradley, that maybe they could throw Miles into the deal too.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 9:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
hah just send him anyway even if the other team doesn't want him
leave a note with him saying “well you said you wanted him in the deal right? Oh you didn’t, well here’s there now!”
Wrigley Bound in the Summer of 2010
by Chanman25 on Nov 24, 2009 9:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
RE: "throw Miles into the deal..."
Careful Al, I think there are moral, if not legal, issues with dwarf-tossing…
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Nov 24, 2009 10:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
OK, then "gently place" him into the deal.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 10:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
...
If i wasn’t at work, that Superman logo would be a “C”.

Dum spiro spero…
Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Nov 24, 2009 10:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I would do that deal in a heartbeat.
Miles for a flying midget in a bike helmet. Done. Do it.
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there is a man on base." - Dave Barry
by The Guy Who Accidentally Saved the World on Nov 24, 2009 1:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't see this.
We don’t know what the Cubs will “sacrifice” to get rid of Bradley (e.g., eating $, taking back another bad contract, getting no prospects, etc.). Still I can see some team(s) talking “themselves into” Bradley because he can hit.
But I’m having a real hard time convincing myself that somebody would take Miles in addition to Bradley. For all the reasons we know Miles is useless (historically weak hitter, not a “glove man”, and mediocre at best speed) and expensive ($2.7M for 2010 according to Cot’s) - don’t you think other teams know that?
Al, I know you acknowledge it would take the Cubs taking a bad contract -- but isn’t it going to have to be Vernon Wells type bad to take $21M of Milton plus another (almost) $3M of Miles?? Certainly the Cubs should ask other teams to take Miles, but I don’t envision any takers.
Unlike many posters, I’m not a fan of the DFA… but I can’t really fathom a deal where the Cubs can make a trade that gets rid of Miles (and presumably Milton) and are in a better position overall at the end of that deal. So just eat the money, pat Aaron on the head, and send him on his way.
by fsuapollo on Nov 24, 2009 11:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It all depends, I guess...
… on how much money is involved. Yes, they might have to release him. It might not be a bad idea to keep him through spring training — considering the number of split squad games there are, you could give him plenty of playing time — if he hits well, maybe a deal could be made then to some team that’s desperate for infield help.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 11:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If only we could get rid of Miles....
This would be a nice pickup.
by vt3stick on Nov 24, 2009 9:54 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I believe Tracy would be a great back-up
Covers alot of positions and has a decent glove and bat, so he can be a spare part. Now if we accept that role, we’ve got a marriage made in heaven
That’s not true!!! WHY THE F*CK WOULD YOU SAY THAT YOU AHOLE!! Ok maybe your right but you gotta give a little something here for it to work. I don’t know what I’m going to do this is the worst thing I’ve ever read, this day could not get any worse. Fine, F*ck it, you’re right.
by Ditkavsworld
by gaclaudy on Nov 24, 2009 10:09 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Get him!
Sign him to a cheap deal with a bunch of incentives. Send Miles anywhere as quickly as possible, he is the absolute worst Cub hitter(non pitcher) I have ever seen in my 40+ years of watching the Cubs, period, no debate.
"Any player who gets the opportunity to play at Wrigley should welcome it"
by Itchy on Nov 24, 2009 10:40 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Until Miles
I always considered this guy the worst Cub hitter ever. Miles may rival him.
by rlpete on Nov 24, 2009 11:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It tells you something about the Cubs during that era...
The Cubs actually kept him around for 2 seasons. Good find.
by doc_blume on Nov 24, 2009 11:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Billy Crystal
thinks Miles’ bat sucks.
by DMCub on Nov 24, 2009 11:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd give Tracy a shot
But Baseball reference says his OBPS at home is .856, on the road .732. Makes me wonder
if his good numbers were the result of the ball park.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=tracych01&year=Career&t=b
Jeff Baker’s lifetime home/road split is even bigger.
by BVictor on Nov 24, 2009 11:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Not needed
Being familiar with Chad Tracy after having watched him closely over the last few years (due to having owned him in my Strat-O-Matic league), I don’t think the Cubs need him, even as a role player off the bench
The knocks on CT are:
He’s perpetually injured.
His defense and range at 3b make Jake Fox look like Brooks Robinson.
His range in the corner outfield spots is even worse than his range at 3b.
His bat is one dimensional.
He probably thinks he can still be a full-time player and wouldn’t do well sitting on the bench. (Granted, I don’t know this for certain, but inasmuch as he is about to be 30 and in the prime of his producing years, I don’t think he will be thrilled pinch hitting three times a week and playing as the occassional corner guy.)
Hoffpauir and Fox can do the same job as Tracy at a 10th of the cost. There are probably a half dozen minor league free agents who could do the same. Don’t waste the money.
I think I speak for everyone here when I say, "Wait, what the hell are you talking about?"
by Ross on Nov 24, 2009 11:23 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
As I said in the post....
… I respectfully disagree re: Hoffpauir. Hoff proved what he is last year — not a major league player. And he can’t play outfield, nor third base.
Jake Fox? Maybe, but I suspect Fox is going to be traded.
The cost wouldn’t be $4 million (10 times the minimum). I’m guessing less, and you’re right about Tracy’s injury history. I’d make sure he’s healthy before I did this.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 12:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No issue with this
He would appear to be a solid bench, role player, who hits from the left side. Almost sounds like he would be to good of a fit. Of course Jimbo had that intention when Miles was signed.
by Grockcubs on Nov 24, 2009 11:23 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Injuries
I would worry about his injuries. Hopefully limited playing time would take care of it. I would be leery of adding another injury prone, 30-something player who had a few good years a couple of seasons ago.
I agree he is a better option at this point than Micah. I just hope JH doesn’t get in a bidding war with himself and overpay for a marginal player like he has in the past.
by Tangled Up In Blue on Nov 24, 2009 11:46 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'll never fully understand the mind...
of Al Yellon. You constantly poo-poo players that continue to be solid, annually playing on playoff teams — Damon, Abreu, Swisher, Hudson, etc. — while at the same time pulling for the Cubs to sign castoffs and castaways like Millar and Tracy. What gives?
I could get behind Tracy as a bench player, but I smell good value on the non-tender list this off-season. I think the Cubs can do better, at least getting less of an injury concern to fill that role. Sorry.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 24, 2009 11:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
It's possible...
… there will be value on the non-tender list. You’re right about that. But there may be just as many injury concerns with people who are non-tendered.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 12:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
redundant?
tracy hasn’t been a useful hitter since 2007 and hasn’t played the OF since 2005. the cubs already have at least 2 guys in jeff baker and jake fox that can fill the role of corner IF/OF reserve and both are likely to be at least equally as valuable as chad tracy for far less money.
by circuitclout on Nov 24, 2009 12:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Fox is a butcher in the outfield.
Baker has played three games in the OF since 2007, since we’re playing that game. I’m just not sure why everyone here seems to think Baker is a Mark DeRosa clone.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 12:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Clone?
No. But a manager can comfortably send him out to play at least four positions off the bench, including a middle infield spot. That’s close enough to super-utility for me.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 24, 2009 12:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Again...
… I’m not convinced Baker can play outfield. Why would you be? He didn’t play it at all last year.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 12:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe it's having seen..
him play it in Colorado. Or maybe it’s the entire 2006 season at AAA spent as an outfielder. Or that I recognize enough athleticism to realize that I can at least send him out to left, and have him not embarrass himself. You pick.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 24, 2009 12:20 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I dunno.
I’d rather see him in a platoon role with Mike Fontenot, or maybe playing most of the time at 2B, and get someone else for that super-utility role.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 12:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I won't be surprised
if we end up with multiple super-utility players in an over-correction of last year.
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 24, 2009 12:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You mean multiple right-handed super-utility players?
Because that left-handed thing didn’t really work out.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 12:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
with smiling, bubbly, puppies-n-kittens-n-sunshine personalities...
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Nov 24, 2009 1:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And rainbows! You forgot rainbows!

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 1:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
lol - I actually did have rainbows in there at first but used sunshine instead
I was afraid if I left rainbows in there, someone would post the Matt Murton Unicorn picture. Not sure why, but that image just weirds me out – I think there’s a Stephen King novel just waiting to be written for that picture…
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Nov 24, 2009 1:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, that's not just a rainbow, it's a DOUBLE RAINBOW!
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 1:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I feel that I do...
And I’d like the Cubs to acknowledge that they’ve gotten what they could from the Sosa deal, get a bit smarter than paying Fontenot a couple of million next season, and show him the door. Go find a real left-handed second baseman, and let Jeff Baker get plenty at-bats off the bench, which I think is his highest and best use. Frankly, I think the Cubs will be better all around for it.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 24, 2009 12:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Who's your "real" left-handed 2B?
Orlando Hudson? Then explain to me why Hudson sat in the playoffs.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 12:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He wasn't hot...
I don’t have a better reason for you than that. And I guess I have to ask “so what?” Does the fact that Belliard was sun-like hot over the last few weeks of the season make Hudson any less capable? Does the perceived slight decline in defense make him less capable than Fontenot at the position.
The Cubs could go a few different ways; I’m not married to any particular idea. Maybe it’s Hudson. Maybe Lopez. See if Jarimillo can do something with Kelly Johnson. Maybe it’s Castillo. Whatever the case, I don’t see Fontenot as part of the solution, especially now that he’s arb-eligible.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 24, 2009 12:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I forgot about Kelly Johnson
good catch; I think, though, that the Cubs will keep going with Fontenot.
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 24, 2009 12:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
I don’t think Fontenot is going to get any ridiculous raise in arb.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 12:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
just wondering
could carlos guillen play 2B?
would the tigers take bradley off our hands?
by circuitclout on Nov 24, 2009 1:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Guillen has played 12 MLB games at 2B.
The last one was in 1999.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 1:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i realize he hasn't done it
but as a former SS, could he do it? or does he only have the range for a corner spot at this point?
by circuitclout on Nov 24, 2009 1:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That's what I'm guessing.
He hasn’t played any SS in two years.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 1:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Also, it sounds like the Tigers are looking to dump money,
not swap bad contract for bad contract.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 24, 2009 4:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He didn't have to.
We had Bobby Super Scales to park in left field after Soriano went down. (sarcasm)
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there is a man on base." - Dave Barry
by The Guy Who Accidentally Saved the World on Nov 24, 2009 1:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yea man
Why aren’t we talking about Bobby? He can play LF so well…
I’m remembering that game at Busch this year where he messed up 2-3 routine plays. Ugh. The season was over by that point but it was still extremely frustrating.
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
by Musicdude10 on Nov 24, 2009 6:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That was part of Lou's plan to bench Fox
Wasn’t Scales just granted his free agency?
I am sure a good team will pick him up to play LF.
by TJ11 on Nov 24, 2009 6:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Dodm
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
by Musicdude10 on Nov 25, 2009 12:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Keyboard FAIL
Didn’t hear about that. Not sad to see him go…but he was a good story. Idk, would he have been taking up space in AAA?
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
by Musicdude10 on Nov 25, 2009 12:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
true
but tracy certainly isn’t a defensive specialist at any of the 4 spots he can play. so by signing tracy the cubs would give themselves 3 guys to fill one role…back up corner infielder… because it is likely they will carry one of colvin/fuld as their 5th OF to be used primarily for defense.
i think a better use of the money you would give to tracy should be spent on a 4th OF that can play center (reed johnson, randy winn) or a backup catcher that can actually hit (greg zaun?)
by circuitclout on Nov 24, 2009 12:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Zaun isn't a bad hitter, but...
… he will be 39 in April. I’d rather have a backup C who can play defense. Zaun can’t, really, any more.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 24, 2009 12:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
not sold on zaun
just want an upgrade over koyie hill in the event that soto was a one-year wonder. zaun, rod barajas, a molina maybe, or torrealba? the in-house options (robinson, clevenger, and castillo) don’t elicit a lot of excitement.
by circuitclout on Nov 24, 2009 12:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not enough money to go around for those guys
I’d rather have Koyie, who is solid defensively, for that role and bring up a kid in case soto goes down
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
by Musicdude10 on Nov 24, 2009 6:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The backup 3B issue
I like Chad Tracy, but the trend of the conversation here concerns me. We don’t need a backup 3B any more. Baker can play there, as can Fox from time to time. We didn’t have a backup SS last year, and we still don’t. What’s worse, a Theriot injury could lead to a premature Castro callup in the same way that a Soriano injury in 2007 led to a premature Pie callup.
There’s an old ND alum Hendry has never sought before, who also happens to be a LH SS out there – Craig Counsell. I can’t stand his batting stance, but he makes some sense if we can dump Miles. The problem is that Counsell’s bat is potentially, and obviously, better than Theriot’s against RHP, which might be a reason not to acquire him – to protect Theriot.
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 24, 2009 12:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
obviously? seriously?
counsell had arguably his best season last year at age 38, the first time he was a league average hitter since 2000. counsell is still an above average defender at 2B and 3B but he probably couldn’t handle SS on a regular basis anymore. it would be foolish to sign counsell and expect him to repeat his 2009 numbers.
by circuitclout on Nov 24, 2009 12:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't expect him to repeat his 2009 #s.
But take Counsell’s #s v. RHP from a poorer year and Theriot’s #s v. RHP…
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 24, 2009 12:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i did that
v rhp
2006 theriot: 317/378/524 counsell: 255/321/371
2007 theriot: 260/318/316 counsell: 234/337/316
2008 theriot: 308/379/355 counsell: 229/358/308
2009 theriot: 279/339/351 counsell: 290/358/415
its still not obvious to me that counsell is better against righties than theriot
by circuitclout on Nov 24, 2009 1:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The inclusion of the 2006 numbers in small sample size only helps if your goal is to protect Theriot.
The fact is that while you suggest I expect Counsell to repeat his 2009, many Cub fans expect Theriot to repeat his 2008, all the while ignoring the rest of his career. Theriot is what we saw in 2009, and against RHP, if that’s leading off…
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 24, 2009 2:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Eric Hinske could probably do the same things for you
and do them cheaper, and be fine with a bench role. He was someone I was hoping Hendry would sign last winter.
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
by davidalanu on Nov 24, 2009 12:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Uh...
You remember that he did, right?
by Damen Jackson on Nov 24, 2009 12:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Scratch that...
I’m having a brain cramp.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 24, 2009 12:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Confusing the Cubs with the Pirates again...
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 24, 2009 12:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Mixing my 'skies...
again. Eric Hinske. Corey Koskie. It all blurs after awhile.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 24, 2009 12:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yup
I’d prefer Hinske as well, but I don’t think he’d be cheaper. I don’t think he’d be expensive either, but I’d be a bit surprised if Chad Tracy could command more on the open market than Hinske.
by toonsterwu on Nov 25, 2009 2:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm am all for this
I have been a Tracy fan for a while now. He would be a great util/bench player. He, on the other hand, could possibly be worth Miles type of money.
by Don't Fear the Reaper on Nov 24, 2009 1:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Chad Tracy
can flat out rake. When healthy, he is capable of putting up impressive numbers.
Forget about him playing in the OF. He hasn’t played there since 2005…and it wasn’t pretty. He is strictly 3B (decent) or 1B (adequate).
by azjazzman on Nov 24, 2009 2:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I've wondered if post-knee issues
OF is still an option, not expecting the Snakes to try it with all their other OF options.
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 24, 2009 2:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Back to Al
that this signing is not the be-all and end-all
And my response stated that the signing “might” help the club….but there are other concerns. I don’t share your optimism that the starting rotation is “fine”. Unless you consider losing a starter in Harden, having a roller-coaster at best “ace” in Zambrano, an injured Lilly, a “do it again” Wells and some odd hope that Samardzija or others might actually be major league caliber. Those are some pretty significant question marks if you ask me.
Your faith is also much more than mine in No. 12 turning into anything better than what was seen in 2009. Until proven otherwise, the knee injury was merely an excuse. I hope he proves me wrong….but forgive me if I have doubts.
The bullpen is in need of more arms no matter how you look at it and Grabow doesn’t really tips the scales in that regard.
Add the Bradley matter and no, perhaps they didn’t lose 90 games in 2009 but do you honestly think that this team will miraculously solve all of the pressing questions in time to basically hold serve with what they have and also contend in 2010? I don’t share that opinion.
Fact of the matter, they have other issues than Chad Tracy. If your starting offensive players don’t make enough of a difference with their 500-600 AB’s, a guy getting perhaps 150 AB’s is unnecessary.
Who needs a stinkin' tag line? What are they for anyway?
by krummy12 on Nov 24, 2009 4:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think you misplaced this post.
It belongs in one of the BLou Jeremiads.
Here we’re interested in covering new ground, talking about moves that might make sense for the Cubs if you actually plan to play games in 2010, not just wonder why no one believes your prophecies of gloom.
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 24, 2009 4:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i see blou has a new screen name
1 Aaron down, 1 to go
by jesus christos on Nov 24, 2009 5:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
twins?
OK I don't know shit about basketball.
by SoulEater7 on Nov. 5, 2009 9:51 PM CST
by sue369 on Nov 24, 2009 7:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
the spawn of voldemort and the wicked witch of the west
1 Aaron down, 1 to go
by jesus christos on Nov 24, 2009 7:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He's old and can't hit anymore...
The Cubs don’t need him, nor want him.
by TheHawkRules on Nov 24, 2009 6:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
do some research before you talk
by Don't Fear the Reaper on Nov 25, 2009 8:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No, you go do some research before you talk
Obviously, this has flown over your head/
by TheHawkRules on Nov 25, 2009 1:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Al,
I think you over-estimate the 2008 bench — at least Lou’s use of it.
Daryle Ward was strictly a PH (since he is really too fat to play OF), and he didn’t have a very good year.
E-Pat made one OF mistake and was banished.
Murton never got a chance after his two OF blunders in 2007.
Hoff hit OK, but Lou didn’t trust him in the OF.
Lou would rather have had swine flu than play Onedec.
Lou only wanted to use RJ in CF against LHP.
That meant that the entire bench was LBR, courtesty of DeRo’s ability to vacate 2B whenever needed.
Since we don’t have DeRo anymore (and won’t in 2010), Hendry has to find at least 3 guys (OF, MI, and CI) that Lou would be willing to play.
Tracy is just a LH Fox. Assuming Fox isn’t traded, which one would Lou want?
One other point to remember: when Lou moved DeRo around, neither his offense nor his defense suffered — that’s what made it so easy for Lou to plug LBR in at will. No one knows if Baker will hit or play decent defense if he is shuffled around. Most guys’ performance does suffer — that’s one of the things that makes DeRo special. (Many KC people feel that Teahen’s bat was affected by position changes.)
Baker came up as a 3B — blocked by Atkins, and later passed by Stewart. They asked him to learn 2B, but his defense was never good enough to keep him in the lineup when his bat wasn’t hot. He was used only very sporadically in the OF, so it isn’t really fair to judge whether he can play there or not. (Remember that DeRo was primarily an OF in 2006, so Lou knew he could play there.)
Assuming that you can’t use a one-man (LBR) bench because you can’t move Baker so easily, who are your 3 main bench guys? LBR? Tracy/Fox? Blanco? (Neither Baker nor LBR can play SS.) Fuld?
Tracy might be useful as a LH PH, but I’m not sure about the rest.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 24, 2009 6:34 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Tejada?
Not trying to get too far away from the truth about many of the Cubs contracts and the huge payroll…. Can he be had for a reasonable one year deal? Worth it?
There goes one over the fence...a Tru-Link fence.
by truelinkfence on Nov 24, 2009 8:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Too much money
Too old, can only play one position….
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
by Musicdude10 on Nov 25, 2009 12:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Meh
Adding a Chad Tracy is something this ballclub should do as a very secondary type of a thing.
Bottom line is that the Cubs have strategic issues to address before devoting time to fringe additions. Teams like the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies have time to think about the Chad Tracys’ of the world….we don’t.
"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)
by BLou on Nov 24, 2009 8:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Me thinks
Yanks, Red Sox and Phils are thinking about guys like Holliday, Chapman, DeRosa, Figgins, Gonzalez, Halliday, etc., while the Cubs are left thinking about the Chad Tracys of the world.
Considering who backed up Lee in 2005 and Ramirez last year, Chad Tracy might be perfect LH protection for both corners.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Nov 24, 2009 9:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Priorities if there is to be any hope of competitiveness in 2010
1. The rotation…the overpaid Dempster, the enigmatic child Zambrano, and a whole lot of question marks.
2. The bullpen…Marmol, Grabow, Guzman and a whole lot of open competition for roles.
3. The Soriano dilemma
4. The middle infield dilemma….a team with the third highest payroll is reduced to less than satisfactory journeyman types at shortstop and 2nd base right now
5. The Soto dilemma….strategy seems to pray he can semi-rebound and/or that Hill can step up
6. The Milton circus
7. The very ugly payroll dilemma
"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)
by BLou on Nov 24, 2009 9:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Well, call me a drool monkey (or a doorknob), but I stand in awe...
…as BLou delivers the Seven Priorities.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Nov 24, 2009 9:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
again with the Dempster thing
The Overpaid Dempster? What do you want him to do? He was a solid arm for his salary last year. He was a solid 2/3 type starter. About the only flaw you can find with Dempster is his W-L record … and I would hope, in this day and age, that most recognize that W-L isn’t an accurate reflection on a pitcher’s ability. If he maintains his 3.6 WAR level each year, he should be a very good value for the duration of his contract. That’s another time and place. For his 2009 salary (8 mil), he was very, very good, and I’m fine with the 12.5 mil he’s getting next year. The 2011 13.5 and the 2012 player option 14 mil might end up leading to Dempster being overpaid (and I’m not sold on that), but for now, I still don’t understand your whole “overpaid angle” on Dempster in regards to his 2009 campaign. Add in that he’s a good clubhouse guy, and I’ve got zero problems with Dempster’s contract as it stands right now.
by toonsterwu on Nov 25, 2009 2:28 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Oh, and as to number 4
You make the middle infield sound horrible. I’m no Theriot fan, but he’s improved enough that he is hardly a big issue for the org in the near term. If there’s a better player, fine, replace Theriot, but he had the 9th best WAR for ss’s in 2008, and the 11th best last year. That’s hardly a “less than satisfactory journeyman type”. As for 2nd base, I am comfortable with Jeff Baker as a piece to the puzzle there, but in general, 2nd basemen can be found.
The bigger issue might have less to do with the individual options at those two spots and more to do with how the pieces of the puzzle fit together in that, I don’t love Theriot as a top of the order guy, and the MI spots might be the only spots we can look for another top of the order option. But on the whole, the individual options there aren’t as bad as you are suggesting.
by toonsterwu on Nov 25, 2009 2:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
For Pete's sake
let’s just sign O. Hudson and be done with it.
Didn’t he just win the glove glove this year, has decent speed and can hit a fair amount?
If you think you've seen it all...just wait!
by CubFanSince1970 on Nov 24, 2009 9:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
The "glove glove"?
Yes, I know what you meant.
Again, I ask why Hudson sat during the playoffs if he’s so good.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 25, 2009 7:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Joe Torre was convinced that to get the Dodgers out of the second round of the playoffs
they needed to get more right-handed.
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 25, 2009 7:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So you're saying he went to the Lou Piniella School Of Playoff Managing.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 25, 2009 8:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Should read: Gold Glove
If you think you've seen it all...just wait!
by CubFanSince1970 on Nov 25, 2009 8:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
he won the GG because of his reputation
utley got jipped
1 Aaron down, 1 to go
by jesus christos on Nov 25, 2009 7:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Cubs have to eat Miles $2.7m contract...
no matter what they do this off-season. Otherwise, the team will be hamstrung again next year wasting a roster spot on someone who doesn’t help the team.
Let Fontenot go, and now you have a couple of roster spots to play with.
If you think you've seen it all...just wait!
by CubFanSince1970 on Nov 24, 2009 9:29 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I like the idea of Chad Tracy...
but only think it’s a reasonable thing to do if the Cubs find a taker for Aaron Miles.
by shawndgoldman on Nov 24, 2009 9:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Probably so.
It’s still possible they might.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 25, 2009 7:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Where is he going to fit in?
Our bench is full of utility infielders.
Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.
by Cub Style on Nov 25, 2009 6:12 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Sorry guys
But as much as you like to bash BLou, he is spot on with his seven priorities. I’m fine with the constant and misplaced optimism here but reality says otherwise in this instance. Tinkering and tweaking is not going to help this club in 2010. It might allow more ticket sales but this team will not be markedly better with the current roster and only certain passive additions. Chad Tracy would count as such an addition which is pretty much what I indicated about 100 posts ago. This team has more pressing needs and if they don’t address them, 2010 is poised to be more mediocrity.
Who needs a stinkin' tag line? What are they for anyway?
by krummy12 on Nov 25, 2009 8:50 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Here's the problem.
We know that there are Cub fans who are convinced the team isn’t championship caliber. This case has been made ad nauseum. We know where you stand.
It would have been nice had some of you doomngloomers shown up when, for example, shawndgoldman or others were trying to analyze how many wins could be expected out of the current core. Perhaps you were busy then.
But now you try and invade other topics of discussion and turn every discussion into the same. On its own, that’s just annoying. In this particular case, however, you happen to be laughably wrong. If you’re right that the Cubs are not good enough to win next year, then giving players like Chad Tracy a chance to come back is precisely the kind of thing we should be doing. Tracy once hit for a .900 OPS. That’s the kind of wild card that, if he breaks out, can bump an 85-win team up to the next level. Or, Tracy could be flipped at the deadline for useful players for the future.
So, get your stories straight – either we can’t win – and then Al’s on just the right track – or we can, and you need to make your case for how to address the “more pressing needs” in a realistic way. I’ll be glad to join that conversation in your own fanpost. In the meantime, happy Thanksgiving!
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 25, 2009 9:42 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Reply fail
Meant as reply to krummy12
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 25, 2009 9:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
why isn't there an argument
for: "we’re unlikely to win and instead of focusing on trying to improve something fundamentally broken for 2010, we would prefer the team funnel funds into trying to get better in the future i.e. draft, international signings, etc; instead of on bench players who have little overall impact
by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 25, 2009 10:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That's precisely the argument that should be made
but it doesn’t apply to Chad Tracy. Tracy is a player who has been injured for a while and could end up having real, useful talent. Putting him on your bench with the intention to get him enough ABs to see what he has in him, is a good buy-low strategy. The amount of money you spend on him is not going to keep you from signing draft picks.
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 25, 2009 10:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
c'mon...
you throw 2 million at Tracy compared to having Hoff at less than a million doesnt cost you anything? Sure it does, every penny counts when your tight on your budget
Tracy’s turning 30 this season, he hasn’t been healthy in 3 years, assuming his defense is capable seems far-fetched given he was an average defender in his prime before all the injuries
His ISO has steadily declined or plateaued at a level practically at replacement
what are we buying low on? The upside is that he’s an above average bench player. Why gamble on something like that for a team that isn’t a world series contender?
I
by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 25, 2009 10:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I did say "for the right price".
Also, I suspect money WILL be funneled into scouting, the draft, etc. That’s a different budget from player payroll.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 25, 2009 10:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
how are the budgets not related?
that would significantly concern me if that were the case
why not have fluid budgets? If a team is not going to be competitive why continue to funnel resources into the ML entity just to meet budget and not re-direct some of those into development
that would be asinine, god i hope they don’t do that
by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 25, 2009 10:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't make budgets...
… and unless you do, I’d suggest that possibly people involved in baseball management know how to do this better than you do.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 25, 2009 11:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ok...
so now we’re arguing the validity of my claim instead of supporting your own? Are you still holding that your statement that the two budgets are separate is fact?
You recognize neither of us have a specific experience in making baseball budgets, so I’m wondering why your statement holds validity but my suggestion that it didn’t make logical sense, doesn’t?
I have no idea what they actually do and I would admit their are more qualified people in this world to make those decisions.
I would suggest using simple logic would dictate it would be extremely silly to have two separate and static pools of money for two areas of management that are absolutely related
The major league team and the player development are interconnected. Having static separate pools of money for the two would seem very silly.
by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 25, 2009 11:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The upside on Tracy is significantly higher than "above average bench player."
That’s where our opinions differ.
Also, there’s no point, in my view, to wasting another dime on Hoffpauir. I’d rather bring up Snyder if we have to save every dime – which we don’t.
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 25, 2009 10:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
then give me the upside on tracy
other than one extraordinary season at age 25, he’s been average…
age 24 OPS + = 90
age 25 OPS + = 132
age 26, OPS+ = 98
age 27, OPS+ = 100
age 28, OPS + = 82
age 29, OPS+ = 76
which one of those is not like the other? The upside is league average hitter which would be an above average bench player. And considering the likely defensive deficiencies it just doesn’t make much sense to consider him for any role above bench player
what are you seeing that i’m not?
by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 25, 2009 10:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Why are you not seeing the 132 OPS+?
Why is that not upside? He’s been injured.
It’s one thing to argue we shouldn’t make him our starting 1B. It’s another to say, “We don’t have room for him on the bench.”
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 25, 2009 12:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
because the 132+ OPS is an outlier
his best full minor league season was an .875 OPS, his career minor league OPS was .848
his career major league OPS is .792, respectable but offering limited upside
if he was posting an OPS+ around 100 i’d agree maybe the upside was 132, but he’s been posting in the high 70’s/low 80’s and he’s now entering a historical decline period age 30 and beyond
very little about his entire performance profile suggests the season he had 4 years ago is even possible. Nothing in his minor league track record, nothing in his major league track record before or after.
I’m not saying we don’t have room for him on the bench, i’m saying there’s no point to spending excess money on marginal upgrades that are 200 AB type players who have the upside of “above average bat off bench”, who are entering their 30’s
that’s the type of gamble a world series contender might be willing to take but little suggests the team we have is a world series contender. So why just waste extra dollars to eek out an extra win and maybe get to 86-88??? Why not put that excess money (say $1 million or so) into an above slot sign?
by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 25, 2009 12:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Upside is not equal to mean projection
and James is giving Tracy a projection of .276/.338/.443.
“Outlier” does not mean it can’t happen again. Don’t you think most players’ ceilings are represented by outlier years on the back of their bubble gum cards?
How can you say that his season 4 years ago is now impossible to replicate when he’s been facing one injury after another since then? And that season 4 years ago was good enough, that you don’t have to see him reach that high to be very valuable – especially as a LH bat.
You can arge that he’s likely to be injured, which is true.
You can argue that he’s more likely to post an OPS just under .800, which is true.
You can argue that he’s 30, and therefore likely to begin declining, but then you have no exact benchmark to use for a guide from which he’s declinining, because he’s been injured. In other words, Tracy’s decline phase may include several seasons of .350 OBP .500 SLG if only he gets healthy.
You just aren’t getting what I’m envisioning for Tracy. He’s the type of player you put on your bench and tell him – “Lou doesn’t like Fukudome. Play well and you’ll win the RF job.” At worst, you’re out your trainer’s time and energy and whatever measley guaranteed dollars you give him. At best, however, you get next year’s corner IF. Or maybe you get what SD got in Jody Gerut when they let him try and come back – with the limited benefit they got.
I bring up Gerut as an acknowledgement that even when this goes right it doesn’t always pay off, but I also bring it up as a reminder that moves like this are not “the type of gamble a WS contender might be willing to take.” It seems to me that you are so stuck on your annoyance over moves like the Grabow move that you’re just knee-jerk reacting to the spending of any money on the 25-man roster. Signing Tracy is a good risk to fill a need we have in system – LH sock.
Seriously, what is the downside here?
If you’re convinced that the Cubs can’t win in 2010, then why not leverage the budget we do have – ignore players like Byrd and Cameron, and instead give more guaranteed money to players like Ankiel, Tracy, Gerut, etc. if only they’ll give us a team option. Then throw whichever of those guys is cheapest out to play and see if one sticks? Isn’t that a valid way to help the team add to it’s talent coffers?
Is he traded yet?
by DGU on Nov 25, 2009 1:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
a couple points
1. “Tracy’s decline phase may include several seasons of .350 OBP .500 SLG if only he gets healthy.”
why would his decline phase surpass every full season he’s had as a major or minor league player with the exception of one?
He was healthy in ’04 and ’06 when he posted the OPS+ of 90 and 98. He was healthy in the minors when he never posted a slugging % above .500.
You’re talking about admittedly a 100 point improvement over a mean projection in terms of OPS, that’s equivalent to a 99th percentile projection, and that’s an .850 OPS. You’re talking about the 2005 season as if its realistic, the 2005 season was 60 points of OPS above a 99th percentile projection
2. Why do you assume Tracy can play the field? He hasn’t played in the OF since 2005. He has had microfracture knee surgery since then. In the last 2 years he’s made TEN appearances on a baseball diamond that weren’t at 1B
There’s an inherent assumption here that he can competently play the field and there’s little evidence to suggest he actually can since having these major surgeries
3. “It seems to me that you are so stuck on your annoyance over moves like the Grabow move that you’re just knee-jerk reacting to the spending of any money on the 25-man roster.”
Its not knee-jerking, i’ve been steadfast since the end of the ‘08 season that FA moves weren’t needed. This season I just think is a “take your medicine” type year. I think the limited resources that are spent should be spent in areas where no obvious internal candidate exists AND for roles that will be significant.
It’s not that i’m opposed to spending money, i’m opposed to spending money on marginal upgrades over replacement. I view Tracy as just that not only by health but by skill-set, and I consider health part of the skill set. It’s apparent he can’t stay healthy, he’s had major surgeries, and he’s aging.
If we wanted to go for a 1 year deal for guys who fill significant needs like CF (after a trade of Bradley is complete), i’d be fine with that. In fact i’d prefer a higher annual salary and less years commitment to fill those holes. I’ve said this a few times.
But to do that (overpay for less years) on a tight budget, you can’t just throw a million here, a million there on insignificant parts. Micah Hoffpauir the role Tracy would presumably fill was 4% of our offensive PA’s last year.
I’d rather save money in those spots and spend a higher average annual salary on a starting CF like Cameron who could be had on a shorter-term deal that represents 10-12% of our PA’s as a club.
This is the same concept with the pitching and Grabow. Grabow is no better than most relievers in MLB (1.4 WHIP, 4.00 ERA), paying him 3.75 million to pitch less than 5% of our team’s innings is silly.
by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 25, 2009 1:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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