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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

Link is to John Perrotto's twitter feed. h/t mlbtr.

Considering there was a whole thread on whether or not one would be willing to bust up the system for Halladay, I thought this deserved attention. Here's an elite arm in his prime, who is cost-controlled, and thus could actually fit in our budget. It's been speculated for awhile, since the contract talks broke off, but this seems the first guy to come out and say that they would listen on him.

I'm not saying we will go after Josh Johnson. Just saying that, if there's a guy that I'd be willing to get really aggressive on this offseason, this would be it. For all the intrigue about Cashner, Jay Jackson, and Chris Carpenter, we are essentially hoping one of them develops into a decent number 2/3 type starter, and this would be an ace caliber guy right now. Josh has plus stuff and can K folks, but can also get the ground balls. My type of arm. He's reportedly got a good intangibles mix.

Keith Law supposedly suggested that the Marlins could get two ready guys, and two AA prospects. I can't link to it, as it's insider stuff, but mlbtr has a blurb on it.

Here's a guy I'd be willing to get aggressive on. How aggressive? I'm not sure yet, but much more aggressive than Curtis Granderson or Roy Halladay, that's for certain. That said, plenty of teams are likely to be in on this if he really is available.

about 2 years ago Tiny toonsterwu 33 comments 0 recs  | 

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That

is one sweet ‘stache he’s got.

And on a separate note, I’d LOVE to have Josh Johnson, but I really doubt the Cubs could put together the “right” package they’re looking for.

"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07

by RynoHoF on Nov 27, 2009 6:47 PM CST reply actions  

I dont know if anyone saw it on MLBTR...

but some cubs fan posted (i hope jokingly) a trade proposal of Fontenot, Hoffpauir, Patton, and Berg for Josh Johnson. If you have some spare time, look at how fast the guy was flamed. Pretty funny, besides the whole bad cubs fan trade proposals stigma.

by Dayton Cubbie on Nov 27, 2009 6:49 PM CST reply actions  

Sigh.

Another fantasy league deal.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Nov 28, 2009 8:40 AM CST up reply actions  

how is that a "fantasy league" deal

its not trading stars for stars without taking into consideration contracts, money, etc

its just a horribly deranged big-market fan who thinks the small markets are there to act as developmental teams for the big markets

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 28, 2009 8:54 AM CST up reply actions  

It is a fantasy league deal.

Why would the Marlins want Fontenot and Hoffpauir?

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Nov 28, 2009 9:37 AM CST up reply actions  

Answer is they wouldn't

Some Cub fans shall forever believe that certain franchises exist for the sole pleasure of trading us their pearls for the wondrous flotsam of our minor league system.

Fontenot and Hoffpauir have zero trade value. To paraphrase Dennis Green, they are who we thought they were.

"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)

by BLou on Nov 28, 2009 4:42 PM CST up reply actions  

argh...

as a fantasy player and writer i take offense to the “fantasy league trade”. Its not a trade that couldn’t work in real life because of egos, money, etc… all the things fantasy takes out of the picture. For example a trade of Hanley Ramirez for Albert Pujols may happen in fantasy but would never happen in real life

Its quite simply a HORRIBLE trade idea because a big market fan is not only over-estimating the players his club has but has some sort of perception that the small market teams exist for the big market teams to just steal players from.

This type of deal wouldn’t happen in fantasy or real life. A “fantasy league” deal would be one that has equal value on both sides for “fantasy purposes” but wouldn’t have real life possibilities because of contract/star power/etc

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 28, 2009 4:57 PM CST up reply actions  

I called it a fantasy league deal...

… because some fantasy league players think that if you add up enough crappy players, it will add up to one good player from the other side.

Make sense now?

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Nov 28, 2009 5:14 PM CST up reply actions  

yes and no.

Yes, because I understand what you’re trying to say – and I have come across that mentality in fantasy leagues over the years.

No, because this type of thinking clearly is not limited to fantasy leagues and doubtful that it even originated there. I’m confident baseball ‘fans’ were dreaming up lopsided deals like this way before fantasy leagues came about.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Nov 28, 2009 6:15 PM CST up reply actions  

I think the word fantasy is the problem

Al means fantasy as in someones dream world, not fantasy as in fantasy baseball leagues that are played by so many

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on Nov 28, 2009 6:22 PM CST up reply actions  

umm..

he says fantasy LEAGUE in every post

he means fantasy baseball

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 28, 2009 10:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Not saying that I'd do it...

but I think a package of Jay Jackson, Chris Carpenter, Hak Ju Lee, and another high ceiling player could get the deal done.

by Dayton Cubbie on Nov 27, 2009 6:52 PM CST reply actions  

i don't know if it would win a deal

but it would keep us in the game. I do wonder if they might want someone like Randy Wells, a cheap arm that they can plug into the rotation for next season.

Keith Law’s suggestion of two ready guys and two AA prospects seems high. I’m assuming he’s suggesting two high ceiling prospects. That said, I’d be willing to fork over Wells and two of our big 3 arms and another piece. Risky, but I’d roll that dice.

I’m not really expecting it, but I would love to land Josh. If that means sacrificing 2010’s lineup (and potentially, our chances in 2010), fine. Landing an ace like that would be awesome.

by toonsterwu on Nov 27, 2009 7:01 PM CST up reply actions  

As fun as it is to speculate,

there’s just no way I see the Cubs reeling in Johnson. I just see the Cubs front office relishing the emerging depth of the system too much to once again purge it of talent.

That being said, I would personally do the Wells + 2 of 3 big arms + a Kyler Burke/Junior Lake type (8-15 in system) for Johnson. As much as I like Randy Wells, I’ve seen time and time again the Cubs failure to pull the trigger on trading talent when their value is high, and I don’t see Wells sustaining the level of success he achieved this year. I hope I’m wrong because I don’t see the Cubs trading him or acquiring Johnson, but its the same type of feeling I got with Rich Hill (granted, any possible problems wouldn’t be comparable, just relating the gut feeling I get).

by Dayton Cubbie on Nov 27, 2009 7:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Re. Randy Wells

Randy is a good young arm under team control for a while yet.

Johnson is a (much) better young arm under team control for a while yet.

If we can get him for Wells + Jackson + Carpenter + Burke, or something similar, I say do it. A young ace under team control is the most valuable commodity in the game and we all know the Marlins don’t want to have to pay, so we’ll be negotiating from a position of strength.

by cubsforever on Nov 28, 2009 9:23 AM CST up reply actions  

Skip the Doc.

Johnson would be a better deal for the Cubs.

Hopefully we can move on from those Halladay rumors.

"It's hard to win 97 games, it's hard to win the division. Our attitude is if you get in every year, you get in most of the time, sooner or later you are going to knock that door down." -- Jim Hendry

by EJThunder on Nov 27, 2009 11:36 PM CST reply actions  

Give them whatever they want!!!!!!

Screw Granderson!

Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.

by Cub Style on Nov 28, 2009 2:13 PM CST reply actions  

Hate to say it

But all indications are (suprise, suprise) that the Marlins want to shed payroll once again.

Can we get them to throw Hanley Ramirez into the deal?

"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman

by BucknerKongCardenal on Nov 28, 2009 5:28 PM CST reply actions  

probably not

I think, if they move Josh, and only Perrotto has suggested that they will consider it, it is because they realize they won’t be able to sign him down. That said, I don’t get why they wouldn’t give him the 4 years, which is supposedly the biggest hindrance. I mean, an organizational philosophy is good, but you can’t be strict about it. For an ace like this, I’d take the chance on a 4th year.

Hanley’s signed down long term, and at least this offseason, I don’t see them moving him now. If they keep Josh, they have a shot at the playoffs next year. Even without, they still might have a chance if they get a good enough arm in return and a youngster, or two, step up. Obviously, it’d be easier with Josh Johnson in the rotation.

by toonsterwu on Nov 28, 2009 5:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Hanley

they’ve said before their isn’t a package of players and contracts in MLB that would be worthy of Hanley Ramirez

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 28, 2009 6:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols would beg to differ.

But hey it’s the Marlins!

Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.

by Cub Style on Nov 28, 2009 7:55 PM CST up reply actions  

pujols has a larger contract

is further into his prime and plays a less significant position

mauer is only signed through next season, you have to take into account contracts and age when factoring in the comment

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 28, 2009 10:19 PM CST up reply actions  

if the marlins were to move hanley

itd be after the new ballpark opens

1 Aaron down, 1 to go

by jesus christos on Nov 28, 2009 6:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Curtis Granderson isn't going to happen

He isn’t going anywhere unless Detroit is overwhelmed in a deal. The reports that he is “on the block” or overblown. Bottom line Granderson is a big bargain for Detroit, in addition to being an integral ballplayer to the success they hope to have.

The only places I can see Granderson going to is the Yankees or Braves. And that’s IF either franchise is willing to unlock the vault and overwhelm Detroit in a deal. The odds of which I don’t see.

"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)

by BLou on Nov 28, 2009 7:39 PM CST reply actions  

whether or not he goes anywhere

only time will tell. but again, with this idea that somehow the yankees and braves can make trades that the Cubs can’t. For this post, I’ll leave aside any issues on Cubs prospects. Let’s just look at those two organizations you mention.

First off, it’s well acknowledged that the Yankees system is fairly weak right now (probably bottom third in the league). They have one stud in Jesus Montero, but after that, we’re looking at guys like Austin Jackson and Zach McAllister, solid guys but not studs. All indications so far are that they won’t part with Hughes or Chamberlain to make a deal unless it’s for a pitcher. There’s some intriguing lower level assets like Austin Romine and Manny Banuelos, and there’s some catching depth in the system, albeit raw. Some raw arms could still turn it around. The chances that Arodys Vizcaino gets dealt are fairly unlikely. That said, for them to make a deal, they would basically have to go all-in, and even then a package of Montero, Jackson, McAllister wouldn’t really scream out to me as a package that can’t be beat (leaving aside the fact that I think there’s no chance the Yankees would do that). So … how is it that a relatively weak system like the Yankees can make a move that 28 other clubs can’t?

We’ve had the Braves discussion before. Granderson would make some sense for them, allowing them to shift the poor defensive player in McLouth to a corner spot. Overall, as a system, the Braves likely rank in the middle of the pack, basically where the Cubs will be. The problem is, strip away the untouchables in the system, and it’s hard for them to make a big deal without really damaging their system (leaving aside the fact that Wren has basically suggested he won’t make a big deal involving key prospects, though that could always change). Heyward is definitely untouchable. They’ve given all indications that Freddie Freeman is untouchable. What do you have left? A bunch of arms, but a lot of them are raw arms that aren’t close. Some pen assets like Craig Kimbrel, who I think has been a tad overhyped, although he has closing potential. They could put a Jordan Schafer in there perhaps.

The issue I have with your statement isn’t whether or not these two teams could win a deal, it’s the fact that somehow you think these two teams are the only teams that could make a deal, when on the surface, one team doesn’t have a strong system (Yankees) and with the Braves, once you strip the untouchables (and Teheran could be untouchable) then they really don’t have much of a system left. Neither system is a top 10 system right now.

by toonsterwu on Nov 28, 2009 8:39 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Your problem, toonster...

… is that you are attempting to respond to bombast with logic. Your post is detailed and well-written and thought-out, but BLou can’t be swayed by reality or facts.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Nov 28, 2009 8:46 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Sigh....

This is what happens when you pee all over Al’s ramblings to acquire Marlon Byrd or Mike Cameron and agree with the majority of the baseball world in saying Ron Santo has zero business being in the Hall of Fame. It’s called Al revenge. Whoopie.

"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)

by BLou on Nov 29, 2009 6:18 PM CST up reply actions  

It's been inferred Starlin Castro is untouchable

With that as an apparent given I see no chance for the Cubs to structure a deal for Curtis Granderson. None. Detroit is in the driver’s seat in any trade for Granderson. And if you were in their shoes then you’d rightfully want a blue-chip prospect or two. I doubt Andrew Cashner and Josh Vitters gets a deal done, even if Hendry were so inclined to offer up those two. Which I don’t think he probably would be.

"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)

by BLou on Nov 29, 2009 6:16 PM CST up reply actions  

that's fine

i think you are off on that, but my point wasn’t whether or not the cubs could – my point was that, to pick two systems that were equal (Braves) or weaker (Yankees) than the cubs, and to suggest that those were the only two systems that could put together a deal was … well, it was a surprising statement to say the least. Particularly since, if you remove the blue chip talent from the Braves system, guys that likely won’t get moved, then their system is fairly pedestrian.

As for Granderson’s value, I don’t believe that they will get any team to fork an elite prospect over to him. They may want an elite prospect, and they may be justified in asking for it, but who’s forking it over? Maybe someone will surprise and offer an elite prospect, but elite prospects getting traded in this day and age are exceptions, and no the rule.

By most accounts, they are looking for young arms and young up the middle talent. The Cubs have one of the deepest stables of up the middle talent in the entire minors. They also have 3 quality, AA-level arms. The fit is there in terms of their needs and the capability to provide upper level assets. If a team truly offers a top 30 or so prospect, then I wouldn’t be interested anyways. I like Granderson, but not that much. I’m still not sold they get an elite prospect as a part of a big package, and if they don’t, the Cubs certainly have enough assets to compete with every other team in the majors.

Wanting elite assets and blue chip prospects doesn’t mean they will get it. The Indians started off demanding elite prospects for Cliff Lee. They got a solid package, a package representative of a paradigm-shift in baseball trade valuation, imo, but they didn’t get the elite prospects they were after. Only time will tell if the Tigers get it, and if they don’t, if they are willing to make a trade without it.

by toonsterwu on Nov 29, 2009 6:42 PM CST up reply actions  

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