I would still take Harden back. I know we probably don’t have salary to pay him but when he’s good, he’s really good.

Good riddance. Why you are a type A I’ll never know

I’d like to see Harden back but there are more pressing issues and he will be too costly and for too many years

RJ is welcomed back with open arms in my eyes

Chad Fox, do Hendry a favor and retire

oh well..

I think Marshalls due

due to the general state of the economy, and the fact that teams will try to pare down their huge payrolls a little this year.

I figured they would offer Harden arbitration.

WHat’s the downside of offering arbitration to Harden? Are the Cubs that dead set to get rid of him? Like others have said, if he accepts, we get him on a 1 year contract, which is a good thing with Harden. If he doesn’t accept, we get a draft pick. Are the Cubs afraid that if he accepts, the arbitration number will be that high? IF thats the case, we are in a heap of trouble with these new owners being penny pinchers.

Since the season ended, there’s been little to no indication that the Cubs would offer Harden arbitration. I think it’s a shame because he’s a great pitcher who appears to have gotten his injury issues under control with the team. But it appears management intends to use the money it would take to re-sign Rich elsewhere.

Seriously… If the Cubs have a very strict budget and/or are looking for every few hundred thousand dollars to make each move, an additional two draft picks before the 2nd round may be substantial. Teams have done this before, not offering arbitration to guys they know will sign elsewhere (SF Giants most notably).

this makes the non-trade to the twins make even less sense. I guess Hendry really thought they were still in it.

that after we non-tender him, he could still come back and sign a more favorable contract with the Cubs for say $4-5m on a one year deal.

He probably won’t sign for that low on a one-year deal, but there is always that possibility.

allow Harden to shut himself down at the end of the year if they didn’t have any future plans for him? Makes no sense.

…of Hendry’s poor contract decisions. I cannot not see Harden taking a big pay cut from the Cubs when there’s a sure-fire chance another team will give him 2-and-an-option for $6-7M a year.

And after making $13M this up-coming season I feel Ted Lilly will be the domino to fall this time next year.

but his Cubs career needs to finally end. I’m fine with Harden going, and hope they do keep Reed Johnson. Good guy to have around, hopefully he can stay healthier this year.

I always disliked you. Leave.

…it seems to me like the Cubs already know they will probably eat MB’s contract and Harden is the guy they would “sacrifice” .

I’m pretty sure they assign values based on the previous TWO years of stats, not just one. But aside from ERA, Gregg’s 2008 wasn’t that much different than 2009. In other words, not very worthy. So I’m not seeing where the “A” comes from, unless they just totally overvalue the Save stat and not look at anything else. I expect that mentality out of regular fans, but not out of some well-established statistical-based league-wide function.

 Likewise, Harden’s 2008 was a lot better than 2009, and 2009 wasn’t all that bad to begin with. And yet he still only grades out as a “B”?

Be that as it may, I’m sure this entered the Cubs thinking as well. If Harden had been an “A” and thus worth two picks in return, Cubs might have been more inclined to offer arb and possibly deal with the payroll flexibility issue later. But for just one pick? Nah….

…that Harden won’t be back?

I’m not quite sure how Gregg rates Type A and Harden Type B, but there it is.

1) There’s a penalty for time on the DL in the equation to determine free agent type. Harden’s had a lot of that, which is why he can be one of the best pitchers in baseball and still be a Type B.
2) Saves and Wins. As DGU noted above, the equation to determine free agent status counts saves, something Gregg actually has gotten a lot of in the last couple years. It also uses wins, and Harden’s frequent DL trips and short outings have left him short of (he only has 50 career wins.)

Here’s a rundown of the stats used for pitchers, per Keith Law:

1. SP: Total games (total starts + 0.5 * total relief appearances), IP, Wins, W-L Percentage, ERA, Strikeouts
2. RP: Total games (total relief appearances + 2 * total starts), IP (weighted slightly less than other categories), Wins + Saves, IP/H ratio, K/BB, ERA

if you look at the statistics…

And to pay a #5 starter the estimated $10 million he’ll likely get in an arbitration avoiding deal is not smart.

Do I think he’d be the fifth best starter if he was on the team in 2010? No…he’d likely be better than at least Wells. But the point is, the Cubs have 4 other guys that have pitched pretty well, and starting pitching isn’t really a weak point for this club.

It is smart to look for a cheaper option to fill the #5 starter spot.

If I am the Cubs, here’s what I do-

I meet with Harden and tell him we are offering him arbitration.
I tell him that if he is with the Cubs, he will be used exclusively as a reliever.
He will get the chance to close, but, he will most likely be used as the 8th inning guy.
He will not get a chance to pitch in the rotation, because the Cubs do not need a starter who generally goes five innings a start.

I do think Harden would make an excellent reliever, but there is almost no chance he accepts because his opportunity for a big payday as a reliever. If he does accept, he gets his payday and if he doesn’t work out as a reliever, the Cubs deal him shortly after the season starts.

Either:

a.) Rich Harden’s arm is really messed up, and the Cubs know it, or…

b.) the Cubs are doing something monumentally stupid in not offering him arbitration.

There’s not much room for any other options here, and neither a. and b. are both bad news.

a. and b. are both bad news.