The incongruity of our perceptions and probabilities
I thought I'd pass along this very short essay on probabilities and human perception. It goes a long way, I think, to illustrating how our perceptions of a circumstance are often clouded and incongruous with actual probabilities.
Hat tip: Rob Neyer's ESPN blog
11 days ago
CubsWin!Oregon
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Link isn't working for me
It would seem their site couldn’t handle the traffic of being linked to from an ESPN writer.
by madcow256 on Nov 9, 2009 3:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm...
I just tried it and it worked for me. Not sure what the issue might be.
In long form, the link is:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/probability_illusions/
by CubsWin!Oregon on Nov 9, 2009 3:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The link didn't work at first for me either but that one works.
Interesting post and, as fate would have it, I’m reading The Book right now.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
by dat cubfan daver on Nov 9, 2009 3:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You'll have to let me know how it is...
I was debating if I should pick it up. It’s likely very interesting, but I was wondering if it would read like a statistics textbook.
by CubsWin!Oregon on Nov 10, 2009 11:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not exactly an easy read so far.
I think the authors do make a good effort to boil down their stats-based findings to clear points. But there are a lot of charts and a certain amount of inevitable mathematical discussions to get through. I’ve never been particularly good at math nor have I ever taken a stats class in my life, so I’m struggling a bit. Nonetheless, I’m finding the book pretty interesting.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
by dat cubfan daver on Nov 10, 2009 12:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh.
That sounds about what I expected. Thanks!
by CubsWin!Oregon on Nov 10, 2009 1:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Could someone please give a definition for incongruity?
I looked it up on dictionary.com and they give the following non-definition:
1. Lack of congruence.
2. The state or quality of being incongruous.
3. Something incongruous.
Big time fail for using the word in the definition!
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 9, 2009 4:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
congruent: agreement
Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team
by carmen_fanzone on Nov 9, 2009 4:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, thanks!
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 9, 2009 4:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If you had added
“In the 21st Century Economy” to the title I would have thought it was an Ivy Walls post.
"Ask Dad. He'll know. And on the off chance he doesn't, he'll make something up"
by StevenABQ on Nov 10, 2009 11:10 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
And about 1,000 words to the actual post, of course.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
by dat cubfan daver on Nov 10, 2009 12:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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