The incongruity of our perceptions and probabilities

I thought I'd pass along this very short essay on probabilities and human perception. It goes a long way, I think, to illustrating how our perceptions of a circumstance are often clouded and incongruous with actual probabilities.

Hat tip: Rob Neyer's ESPN blog

over 2 years ago CubsWin!Oregon 11 comments 0 recs |

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Link isn't working for me

It would seem their site couldn’t handle the traffic of being linked to from an ESPN writer.

by madcow256 on Nov 9, 2009 3:23 PM CST reply actions

Hmmm...

I just tried it and it worked for me. Not sure what the issue might be.

In long form, the link is:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/probability_illusions/

by CubsWin!Oregon on Nov 9, 2009 3:29 PM CST up reply actions

The link didn't work at first for me either but that one works.

Interesting post and, as fate would have it, I’m reading The Book right now.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Nov 9, 2009 3:39 PM CST up reply actions

You'll have to let me know how it is...

I was debating if I should pick it up. It’s likely very interesting, but I was wondering if it would read like a statistics textbook.

by CubsWin!Oregon on Nov 10, 2009 11:39 AM CST up reply actions

It's not exactly an easy read so far.

I think the authors do make a good effort to boil down their stats-based findings to clear points. But there are a lot of charts and a certain amount of inevitable mathematical discussions to get through. I’ve never been particularly good at math nor have I ever taken a stats class in my life, so I’m struggling a bit. Nonetheless, I’m finding the book pretty interesting.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Nov 10, 2009 12:57 PM CST up reply actions