OT: Fan Projections at Fangraphs
I'm a regular Fangraphs reader and I thought this was pretty cool. Since there's often a lot of debate about the worth of player projections on this site, I thought I'd share it to see what people think. Basically, they're checking to see how closely fan projections (that are presumably based on any number of things) will match up with the coomputer projections that are often based on complex statistical models. I've only projected Cubs hitters so far, and I was disappointed you can't project a sub-.200 BA, because that's what I'm seeing for Mr. Aaron Miles.
about 2 years ago
mykalmorgan
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I second this
Fan projections are always an interesting experiement. It will be interesting to see how well these do against the other forecasting systems.
Go make your projections!!
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett
Every day they're going to highlight three players to project
Today, they suggest:
Edwin Jackson
Jay Bruce
Ricky Nolasco
http://www.fivetoolfans.com
Even if the fan projections are fairly far off, you wonder if they could get better over time
Perhaps weighting projections from people who were more correct in years past more would provide better projections?
Actually, the best things to use from fan projections are playing time and defense
These are things that are tougher to project based on past numbers because these are blind to things like other players in the org that could steal playing time, a team’s plans for a player, knowing about who’s injured, etc.
Tango’s fan scouting reports are also good for getting an idea of a player’s defense beyond what stuff like UZR says – because you need to much data to get an estimate of true talent level for defense. Those are much more detailed than what fangraphs uses though.
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett
HELL TO THE YES.
THIS RULES.
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