Where it started

The Cubs need to unload the turbulent Milton Bradley and his $21 million salary. The club is pushing the limit of its budget, weighed down by inflated contracts, even as it attempts to sign free agents or trade for players to help them compete in 2010.

Many people point to the DeRosa trade and signing of Milton Bradley as the point where the Cubs went bad. While I cannot deny the impact of these moves, which I at best was suspect but hopeful of at the time, I believe there is another key move by the Cubs that bares examination in any discussion of how we got here.

During the winter of 2006 and 2007 the Cubs went on a spending spree in an attempt to bolster the team and win then. The Cubs needed a bat and had a choice between two outstanding free agents, both left fielders.

The first was Alfonso Soriano, who hit .277 with a career high .351 OBP with 46 HRs and 95 RBIs with 41 SBs. Soriano styled himself a leadoff man despite his power numbers and the Cubs also needed a leadoff man. They felt that signing the speedy and powerful Soriano would solve both problems in one stroke. I will not discuss the logic of this belief as it has been done so already to no firm conclusion.

The Cubs other choice was Carlos Lee, who split time between Milwaukee and Texas in 2006 hitting .300 with a .355 OBP with 37 HRs and 116 RBIs. Lee, I think everyone can agree, is decidedly not a leadoff hitter despite his 19 SBs in 2006.

The Cubs choose Soriano, committing eight years and $136 million to the outfielder. When I read on the internet that The Cubs had signed a major free agent, a legitimate 40-homerun hitter I was ecstatic. I couldn't believe that the Cubs had spent the money to bring in a top-flight free agent coming off a career year. Though, as the controversy as to whether he should in fact hit leadoff began, and I realized the implications of his deal, I couldn't help but wonder if Carlos Lee would not have been the better choice (I don't mean to say that to make myself look better, I really did wonder that and posted to that affect on the now defunct TalkingCubs.com). But, I let it go, not wanting to look a gift horse in the mouth.

Everyone knows what has happened with Soriano and the Cubs since then, but I think we should examine his performance in comparison with what Carlos Lee has done in that time.

In 2007 Soriano posted an excellent .299 AVG with a respectable .337 OBP 33 HRs 70 RBIs 97 Rs with 31 BBs and 130 Ks in 135 games. His stolen bases dropped to 19 with a leg injury.

Lee, in the same year in Houston, put up a 303 AVG .354 OBP 32 HRs 119 RBIs 93 Rs with 53 BBs and 63 Ks in 162 games. Lee's SBs also dropped to 10.

Overall, not a huge difference between the two. Averages are about the same, Lee got on base more, home runs are about the same, but Lee, hitting in the middle of the Astros lineup, drove in 49 more RBIs (admittedly a team dependent stat) while walking 22 more times and striking out 67 less times. Lee's OBP as a middle of the order hitter was also 17 points higher, and he was driven in just four times less than Soriano as a lead-off hitter (admittedly a team dependent stat).

In 2008, injured again, Soriano hit a respectable .280 with a fine .344 OBP 29 HRs 75 RBIs 76 Rs 43 BBs and 103 Ks in 109 games, injured again. He ran for another 19 SBs

Lee, meanwhile, posted a .314 AVG with a .368 OBP 28 HRs 100 RBIs 61 Rs 37 walks and 49 Ks in 115 games. Not a big part of his game, his stolen bases dropped to just 4. Lee was also injured, playing in just six more games than Soriano.

Lee hit a full 34 points higher than Soriano in 2008 with an OBP that was 24 points higher than the leadoff man. Only one homer separated the two, the advantage going to Soriano, while Lee drove in 25 more RBIs (admittedly a team dependent stat) in the middle of the order in just 6 more games. Lee was also driven in 15 less times than Soriano (admittedly a team dependent stat). Lee walked 6 less times than Soriano, but also struck out 54 less times.

In 2009 Alfonso Soriano was injured again, but played in 117 games. His numbers, however, fell sharply as he hit just .241 with a .303 OBP 20 HRs 55 RBIs 64 Rs 40 BBs and 118 Ks. He ran for just 9 SBs

Lee hit an even .300 with a .343 OBP 26 HRs 102 RBIs 65 Rs 41 BBs and 51 Ks in 160 games. He stole just 5 bases.

Although Lee also suffered a slip in some key categories, Lee hit 59 points higher than Soriano and got on base 40 points more. He hit just 6 more homeruns than the injury plagued Soriano, but drove in 47 more RBIs (admittedly a team dependent stat) being driven in one more time than Soriano (admittedly, a team dependent stat). Lee walked just once more than Soriano but struck out 67 less times in 43 more games played.

As you may have guessed, my thesis is that the Cubs should have signed the more durable less controversial bat of Carlos Lee in the winter of 2006-2007 instead of Soriano. The stats that represent this the most to me are Average, Runs Batted In, On Base Percentage, and Strikeouts, not to mention Lee’s more reasonable, though still extravagant deal of six years and $100 million.

Hindsight is 20/20, and one can never say what a particular player would or would not have done with a particular team had they signed him instead of someone else, but if what Lee and Soriano have done since that fateful decision are any indication of what they would have done, say, if their roles were reversed then I feel it is clear that Carlos Lee would have been the better choice.

I still like Soriano and feel, if healthy, that he can be a large contributor to this ball club. I just feel, in hindsight, Lee would have been the better choice.

EDIT:

Many posters have quite correctly pointed out that Soriano is superior defensively to Lee. In addition, several posters point out reasons Lee wanted to stay in Texas, such as his ranch there, and that Soriano was more durable until he came to the Cubs.

Basiclly, my thesis is blown out of the water. I should have considered other factors other than offense, and for that i apologize.