Rob Neyer proves that he doesn't know baseball through his Top Baseball Players of the '00 List

I think its horrendous..

about 2 years ago Chanman25 18 comments 0 recs |

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im sure plenty of people would have put berkman infront of guys like

johnson, rivera, and pedro…

no wait…

Say no to Marlon Byrd, Scotty Pods, and Rick Ankiel.

by jesus christos on Dec 16, 2009 9:28 PM CST reply actions

he explains the process pretty clearly

“I took a shortcut, ranking the players (including pitchers) by wins above replacement (with a great deal of help from Baseball Projection.com).”

if you don’t like WAR that’s a different discussion, but his list is largely derived from this statistic

by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 16, 2009 9:42 PM CST reply actions

Right.

I was surprised to see Alfonso Soriano not on the list — but if it’s strictly done by WAR and he didn’t make it, that’s the way the list was constructed.

It’s surprising that Soriano didn’t have as many WAR as Corey Koskie during the 2000’s.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Dec 16, 2009 10:20 PM CST up reply actions

he even said in his chat

that from 80 on the differences in WAR are insignificant so at that point it becomes a bit of a subjective ranking game

it sounds as if the top 80 or so were the ones that were distinct

in general though i enjoy neyer. The whole point behind a lot of the movement done by sabermatricians is that sometimes the numbers suggest something different than what your eyes suggest and when that happens you should take time to try to figure out why. A lot of the things he notes in the write-ups on the players talk about fielding and base-running, things we typically don’t factor into player evaluation. Also most fans don’t think about positional value and just because say a 1B hits .300/.400/.500 and its greater than a catcher who hits .270/.370/.470 it doesn’t mean its more valuable

I think the point of the article is to highlight discrepancies between public opinion and what the numbers suggest, often because public opinion utilizes a very narrow focus for player evaluation

by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 17, 2009 8:56 AM CST up reply actions

That surprised me a bit...

But Soriano is, as we all know, an out machine. Koskie got on base at a .367 clip. Overall their career wOBAs are identical. Soriano played more, but he wasn’t nearly as valuable defensively. Soriano wasn’t really good until 2002 (Koskie’s career was cut short after 2006).

by aldimond on Dec 17, 2009 11:29 AM CST up reply actions

WAR! what is it good for..

Wrigley Bound in the Summer of 2010

by Chanman25 on Dec 17, 2009 7:32 PM CST up reply actions

Bobby Abreu as the 16th best player this decade?

Mike Cameron as 36?

Kiss my ass.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Dec 16, 2009 11:32 PM CST reply actions

J.D. Drew ahead of Mariano?

At some point, you do need to look at stats and say, “WAIT, WHAT?”

There is no such thing as an ugly female breast

by Worf on Dec 17, 2009 6:40 AM CST reply actions

its not really surprising

relief pitchers don’t have as much impact on a game as they play say 70-80 innings a year, JD Drew even while injury prone has averaged over 860 innings a season in his career

think about it logically and it makes sense that RP’s wouldn’t be able to impact games as much as everyday players or even SP’s

by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 17, 2009 8:48 AM CST up reply actions

but... but... but... INTANGIBLES!!! ;-)

I think there is some amount of impact a RP makes on games he’s not in – it’s just not something that can be measured.

Whatever it is that goes through a manager’s head as the game progresses, I’m sure it’s a lot different when someone like Rivera or Myers/Dibble/Charlton is in the other teams bullpen versus when it’s the likes of some rookie/no-name closer.

Plus, if a team gets into a pattern of having their closer blow late leads, I’m guessing that it starts to impact how they play the game – jaws clenching, muscles tightening, backs tensing up, etc. Again, not measurable, but still a factor.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Dec 17, 2009 1:17 PM CST up reply actions

You sure do.

You need to look at stats and say, “WAIT, WHAT? I looked at the game the wrong way this whole time!?!”

I exaggerate (often a look at stats can and should have this effect, but not always). WAR has a really hard time comparing relievers to anyone. IIRC replacement level for relievers is about a league-average FIP, so you could essentially substitute in WPA for WAR (perhaps with some minor per-inning adjustment), which factors in leverage and “relief pitcher quirkiness” (I believe pitcher WAR is based on FIP, and relievers are more likely than starters to deviate significantly from FIP) and should stabilize reasonably well over the course of a decade. Doing something like this would bump Rivera up the list significantly. It’s also very team- and park-dependent.

I’m not sure I agree with using replacement level as the baseline for a top players comparison (I understand the concept, I just think “top players” should put more weight on exceptional performance and less on longevity)… League-average might be a little high. Maybe halfway between?

by aldimond on Dec 17, 2009 11:06 AM CST up reply actions

They have different jobs

And Rivera is better at his job than J.D. Drew ever dreamed of being at his.

There is no such thing as an ugly female breast

by Worf on Dec 17, 2009 9:16 AM CST reply actions

That doesn't inherently make Rivera a better player.

If you were picking a football team, who would you pick first: a transcendently great receiver or a merely very good quarterback? If you were starting a company, who would you pay more: a truly great accountant, or a very good engineer?

I agree that Rivera was a better player in the ’aughties, though.

by aldimond on Dec 17, 2009 11:12 AM CST up reply actions

or a transcendently good

punter

by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 17, 2009 1:11 PM CST up reply actions

no, but the comparison here is with JD Drew, an outfielder.

and to say an outfielder is on par with quarterback just doesn’t work for me. Now find me a shortstop or catcher of comparable skill/value as JD Drew, and then compare to Rivera…. well, I’d probably still go with Rivera but I’d have a tougher time making my case.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Dec 17, 2009 1:26 PM CST up reply actions

They did a list of who they think the top 20 players will be of the next decade

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=4740601 (have to be an ESPN Insider to see it) but I can sum it up for you . . . Hanley, Justin Upton, Mauer, Lincecum, Greinke, and 0 Cubs (including the 20 or so “also considered”) players.

I suppose that’s what happens when your players are all pretty old and your prospects are not close enough to call them sure things.

by madcow256 on Dec 17, 2009 11:22 AM CST reply actions

Or it's just because it's ESPN

I’m sure in 2000 we didn’t think Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano would be the core of our offense, or did we think Sosa would turn his back on his team. There is no way you can predict a sport like baseball..

Wrigley Bound in the Summer of 2010

by Chanman25 on Dec 17, 2009 2:58 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Of course

I’m not saying I believe they’ll be right about these predictions, but we certainly don’t look like we have any of the decades top performers currently on our team. Hopefully either some of our prospects exceed expectations, or we acquire another Aramis/Lee once this core has passed.

by madcow256 on Dec 18, 2009 9:44 AM CST up reply actions