Question: Is trading Soriano that far fetched?; also Diamond, Burrell
by nickler on Dec 17, 2009 9:21 AM CST
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Hi, everyone. A few questions. Once again, thank you in advance for your wisdom.
I would ask one favor: instead of putting in a reply such as "already discussed-- move on" or "No, are you crazy?" I'd appreciate a bit more insight. I don't have the opportunity to read each and every post, so I may not be privvy to prior discussions. Also, I am clearly not a great baseball mind which is why I am honestly asking these questions in the first place.
Thanks again...
1. I've been reading your insightful posts and just wanted to ask if trading Soriano is that far fetched.
The Mets are in dire need of an outfielder and are considering signing Jason Bay for 5 years for a bloated contract. Soriano is a better fielder and slugger than Bay is. The Mets have the money to spend and are desperate to keep up with the Phillies.
If we ate some of the contract, wouldn't the Mets be a natural trading partner if indeed the Cubs want to trade Soriano? I don't know if they necessarily WANT to trade him, but if they did, I would think that the Mets would be a fit, especially if we also took a bad contract from them (such as Luis Castillo).
The Yankees are also going to be in need of an OF if Damon does not sign, and Soriano would likely be a better option than what they have out there (Matsui or Damon).
2. How is Thomas Diamond looking? Is he playing in any winter leagues? Last I checked, he was on fire with a microscopic ERA. Is there consideration to his joining the rotation.
3. Why are the Cubs so reluctant to trade MB for Burrell? If anyone is interested in taking on MB, I would think it would be worth it, and the deal the Rays gave was actually quite good (better than anything else out there!). At least Burrell could be traded for prospects to a team looking for a DH. Right now, it would seem that we have to cut MB and get nothing in return.
4. If we do cut MB, and if another team signs him, we don't get draft picks for it as if arbitration were offered, do we?
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Who would want him?
Why would anyone want Soriano? He hasn’t lived up to his contract, and the Cubs would have to pay a huge chunk of change to unload it on someone else. One thing I am not sure of is whether there a no trade clause involved as well.
If Soriano hasn't lived up to his contract...
…it’s only because of injuries. When he is healthy, he has been pretty damn good.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
when was that?
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
seriously?
2007: .299/.337/.560/.897 33 HRs, 70 RBIs, 122 OPS+, 18.4 UZR
2008: .280/.344/.532/.876 29 HRs, 75 RBIs, 119 OPS+, 2.5 UZR
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Dec 17, 2009 9:06 PM CST up reply actions
well I wont hold my breath in hopes of seeing those again
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
1 year ago seems so far away...
Say no to Marlon Byrd, Scotty Pods, and Rick Ankiel.
by jesus christos on Dec 17, 2009 10:13 PM CST up reply actions
Answers
The problem with Soriano’s contract is that the salary is going to start getting larger as his productivity should start declining due to age. We may be stuck with Sori’s contract for the next five years it remains.
The problem with MB is the Cubs are desperate to get rid of him and everyone in MLB knows it. He has a bad contract and every team want to know just how much of it the Cubs are willing to eat.
One major problem I have had with Jim Hendry is dirty laundry. Sammy Sosa left on bad terms. After is releasing the picture of Sosa leaving early on the last day of the season and trashing him in the media, I’m surprised we got anything for him. We are now in the same boat with Bradley. By suspending him at the end of the season, the Cubs said effectively, “we don’t want you anymore.” Hendry has made no secret of his desire to trade Bradley. Why should any team help out the Cubs?
As for cutting Bradley, we would receive no compensation. But, we would receive the honor of paying the remainder of his contract, less the MLB minimum that any other team would sign him for after he clears waivers.
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. -- George Santayana (1863-1952)
The suspension was costly.
Keep all that crap behind closed doors, you still might have had some leverage to deal him, or might be able to repair the relationship. The suspension effectively killed both.
Scott Bora$ is satan.
by Canadian Cubs Fan on Dec 17, 2009 9:58 AM CST up reply actions
Could they have put him on the dl?
One baseball game, he came to the plate and heard a woman in the crowd shout to the pitcher, "I'll make you a chocolate cake if you strike out that 'so-and-so'!" Says Strong: "I hit that ball out of the park. Then I looked at her like, 'Do I get a cake now?' "
That would require Bradley's assistance right?
Could you imagine the uproar from the union if the team put a guy on the DL against his wishes when he wasn’t injured? That would be a nightmare.
by jerry morales rules on Dec 17, 2009 11:34 AM CST up reply actions
I'm just wondering
If it would have been better for Bradley if he went on the DL in a lost season as opposed to getting sent home.
One baseball game, he came to the plate and heard a woman in the crowd shout to the pitcher, "I'll make you a chocolate cake if you strike out that 'so-and-so'!" Says Strong: "I hit that ball out of the park. Then I looked at her like, 'Do I get a cake now?' "
He did pull himself from a game just before the
suspension complaining about knee pain. My opinion is yes, if possible, the DL would have maintained trade leverage, whatever was left after the numbers he put up in 2009.
at daver's request, Let's frontload this B**ch!
In theory, yes
but when he pulled himself from the game he actually felt that his presence there was not good for him. Who knows what he thought in this circumstance.
After everything that he did last year, does anyone honestly think he would do something to benefit the Cubs? If that was the case, all he would have had to do is “act” like a good guy during the season. That’s it and he couldn’t even bring himself to do that.
by jerry morales rules on Dec 17, 2009 12:41 PM CST up reply actions
My point is to benefit himself
I would imagine it would look a lot better to perspective teams to finish a season on the DL as opposed to being sent home.
One baseball game, he came to the plate and heard a woman in the crowd shout to the pitcher, "I'll make you a chocolate cake if you strike out that 'so-and-so'!" Says Strong: "I hit that ball out of the park. Then I looked at her like, 'Do I get a cake now?' "
What would have looked best of all
was for him to have been a good guy all year long in the first place but he couldn’t do that, so, obviously, he doesn’t do things that are in his best, long-term interest.
I understand your point, but I don’t have any reason to believe that Bradley would have gone along with it. I think in his mind, the best thing for him to have done was to keep playing. What does he care if it is easy for the Cubs to trade him or not? He’s still getting paid.
by jerry morales rules on Dec 17, 2009 1:09 PM CST up reply actions
I still don't think the suspension changed much
Bradley had already made his comments. Piniella has already sent him home during one game. The suspension was just the icing on the cake.
Everyone knew the Bradley thing wasn’t working. Hendry’s leverage was possibly microscopically impacted by the suspension but when the fans knew things were a mess, you know that baseball GM’s knew it too.
Meh, lots of teams have aired dirty laundry
It’s much, much worse just on Chicago’s other team. Sometimes difficult situations cannot be handled discretely. I do think that the way they handled Sosa was a mistake, but I’m not sure what else could have been done with Bradley. I think it was apparant that SOMETHING had to have been done.
If something had not been done, what message would that have sent to the 24 other players on the team? If Bradley wasn’t discipined, what might have Bradley done (perhpas even much worse than the things he actually did do)?
by jerry morales rules on Dec 17, 2009 11:09 AM CST up reply actions
As far as #3 goes, it’s probably because the Rays want the Cubs to pay all of Bradley’s 2011 salary, and Ricketts doesn’t want to do that. Which, in my opinion, is wise.
For #4, I think the answer is “no”.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
Exactly, what's the point on taking back Burrell if no money is saved.
I realize the Cubs could try to trade Burrell, but I’m making the assumption the Rays have tried to move him without having to take a charmer like MB back in trade.
at daver's request, Let's frontload this B**ch!
#3
Can we trade MB for Burrell with the 2010 salaries straight up (each team pays $9M), and have the amount we pay in 2011 based on MB’s performance. For example, if he plays 120 games, hits .280 with 20 HR and 75 RBI’s in 2010, we pay nothing in 2011. If he gets hurt or doesn’t produce that well, we pay part or all of his 2011 salary, depending on his numbers. Is this even allowable? Would Selig or the union have an issue with it?
by CubbieFaninOhio on Dec 17, 2009 3:05 PM CST up reply actions
I don’t think the deal can be contingent on his performance. But I suppose they could work something out.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Dec 17, 2009 3:30 PM CST up reply actions
I don't know. You hear "cash considerations" in a lot of deals
Probably not on the scale of somewhere between 2 and 12 million, but still…
"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin
Let me guess...
The Mets would take Soriano if we take Castillo back, as well as sending some $$ along. Then we eat ALL the money for 2011 on MB, and deal him to the Rays for Burrell.
Not. Going. To. Happen.
Scott Bora$ is satan.
by Canadian Cubs Fan on Dec 17, 2009 9:57 AM CST reply actions
Oh, Crap...posting error
Anyway…
Even if it did, it would improve the Cubs. They’d actually be worse off.
and this is a Mets fan—who wants to see Castillo gone—saying this
The insightful posts you must be reading clearly have derived from:
THE ORDINARY WIZARDING LEVELS OF MILTON BRADLEY & THE 2009 CHICAGO CUBS!
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
hypothetical...
If he had a good year in 2010….if his knee isn’t an issue anymore…..couldn’t he be someone’s top DH?
A woman's guess is more accurate than a man's certainty.--Rudyard Kipling
Absolutely
BUT he’s very expensive. He’s not an Ortiz or even a Thome IMO. We’d still have to pay a boatload of his salary
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
by Musicdude10 on Dec 17, 2009 11:15 AM CST up reply actions
oh..Darn-it. But thanks for reply
A woman's guess is more accurate than a man's certainty.--Rudyard Kipling
by cooliogirl47 on Dec 17, 2009 11:19 AM CST up reply actions
I would much rather have Bay for the next 5 years than Soriano.
I don’t think Soriano is a good fielder, Bay isn’t much better, but still….
Bay is a better hitter. A much better RBI man, and hits in the clutch without the giant amount of K’s.
The best difference on Bay is that he's
more consistant. It’s easier to slot in a 25 HR, .280 hitter every day than a streaky dude like the Fonz. How can a manager know which day he’s a #4/5 hitter and which days he’s not good enough to be penciled in at #8.
That said, Soriano was key in 2007 & 2008, but not worthy of the contract. If the Cubs could move him for a CF and only digest $5M per year, it may be worth it not to be forever stuck with him as he nears 40.
at daver's request, Let's frontload this B**ch!
Soriano is extremely streaky...
But over the course of an entire season, how is it easier to slot Bay in for 25HR, and .280 when Soriano has hit 25+ for the past seven straight years (subtract last year because of injury and games played), and over 30HR five of those seasons?
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 17, 2009 2:45 PM CST up reply actions
Bay will show up every day where Soriano
will hit .500 for a couple weeks then be an automatic out the next couple.
at daver's request, Let's frontload this B**ch!
This isn't completely accurate, though...
Look at Bay’s numbers last June and July. He pretty much went to sleep for 50 games before he woke up again in August.
"Juuuuuuussst a bit outside. He tried for the corner and missed..."
- Harry Doyle
by Rusty in Peoria on Dec 18, 2009 9:53 AM CST up reply actions
Fair enough, but that's one slump.
I haven’t looked it up and know all players go through slumps. But the variances are not usually as severe as Sorainos.
at daver's request, Let's frontload this B**ch!
Soriano is a better fielder, I'm not sure what you're basing that on
His career UZR/150 in left is 14 runs better than Bay’s. That’s significant.
I think TJ11
read BLou’s guide to the Cubs, and like BLou will make up what stats/facts he likes to use
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
A: Yes
If a team needs a power hitting left fielder who strikes out too much, plays bad defense, and can’t run anymore, they have cheaper options. Jack Cust or Jonny Gomes should cost under $3mm and can be replaced at the end of the year.
I actually think I have workable Soriano trade scenario
It would involve eating half his salary, but I think the Cubs could, in the long run, really benefit from it and ultimately save money. Of course, I have no idea if any of these teams would be interested in this, and the Cubs may or may not be better this year for it. Well, I’ve been thinking about it long enough, so here it is:
Bradley to the Rays for Pat Burrell. Straight up salary swap in 2010 (each owed $9M), Cubs will pay $9M of his 2011 salary ($12.5M)
Patt Burrell to the Tigers. Tigers pay nothing for his services for 2010.
Soriano to the Tigers: Tigers pay all of his 2010 salary ($18M) . Cubs pay $6M of his $18M salary in 2011 and $9M a year in 2012-2014 ($18M each year)
Magglio Ordonez to the Cubs. Cubs pay all of his 2010 salary ($18M), if his option vests, they pay $15M in 2011.
Here’s how each team’s slary commitments shake out:
Cubs: $27M for 2010 (same as it stands now for Soriano and Bradley). If Ordonez’ option vests, they’re on the hook for $15 + Soriano’s $6M + Bradley’s $9M = $30M. If it doesn’t vest, Cubs will only be on the hook for $15M.
Rays: $9M in 2010 and $3.5M in 2011. That’s two years of Bradley for just over $6M a year.
Tigers: $18M in 2010 (for two players instead of one), $12M in 2011 (granted, for Soriano but still less than paying Ordonez $15M), and $9M for 2012-2014 (Soriano might be worth this much). They can play Soriano in left for one year, and Burrel at DH for one year. After that, Soriano can DH.
The biggest issue with this that I see is 2011 for the Cubs and Tigers. The Cubs should be able to absorb the increase with other salaries possibly coming off the books in 2011. The Tigers would have to really want Soriano, but he’d probably be better than Ordonez in 2010 and 2011, and they’d be saving money each of those two years. After that, they’d have to be seeing Soriano for $9M as a bargain, which I’m not sure he would be.
For the Cubs this year, I would see about signing Ryan Church and Reed Johnson to split time in left and center, with Fuld being the other outfield option. Ordonez would get the bulk of starts in left against righties and start in right against lefties. Will Ordonez be more productive than Soriano in 201?0 Probably not, but he could be adequate to keep the team in contention. And we’d be done with his salary much sooner than Soriano’s. Anyway, that’s my crazy trade proposal for the winter.
I should add
that Ordonez at the least, should make our outfield a little better on days when he starts in left, fuld/johnson starts in center, and Fukudome starts in right. He’d be better in left than right probably, and he’s already an upgrade over Soriano defensively.
It's a nice idea
That said, I think Dombrowski is looking forward to the money coming off the books after the 2010 season and accelerating the rebuilding. They let Magglio’s option vest last year out of some sense of loyalty – I doubt they would let it vest again.
you know, I'd hate to be Detroit's GM this year....
…but I’d love to be their GM next year.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Soriano vs. Bay doesn't compare
There are numerous levels where Soriano doesn’t compare to Bay:
1) Buzz – Bay is one of the top 2 Free Agents OF’s for this year. Soriano is coming off an injury season and he’s been there/done that for NYC. NYC likes splash.
2) Middle of the Order – Bay is a true 4/5 hitter. Soriano wanted to stay a number 1 hitter and is now down to 6 hitter.
3. OBP – Bay is a career .376 OBP player with a 100 spread between his BA and his OBP. Soriano has a .326 OBP with a 40 point spread.
4. Health – Soriano does not have a good health history (see injury after hop, I did). Bay has played around 150 games per year.
The only way...
That Soriano would be tradeable is if he comes back healthy next season and has a good year at the plate. The Cubs would have to eat a ton of money, but I could see him being moved to the AL to DH for the rest of his career.
Someday we'll go all the way...
"Eat a ton of money"
As in assuming 75% of his remaining contract dollars if there is ever to be a hope of moving Soriano. The thing that the kool-aid drinkers fail to realize is that Soriano’s entire offensive approach is getting the bat through the zone and, more or less, guessing pitch. He loses a nanosecond of bat speed and his decline will be off a cliff. If it hasn’t started to happen already, which I think it has. And defensively he is absolutely brutal.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Kool Aid.
I’m getting quite a kick out of this classification of all positive vibe cubs fans as Kool Aid drinkers.
I anxiously await the reasonable trading of Milton Bradley.
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Dec 17, 2009 5:56 PM CST up reply actions
Whoops... bigger than i realized!
For those of you that aren’t familiar with the comments here, please be aware that you can make this image disappear by clicking the title of my comment.
I anxiously await the reasonable trading of Milton Bradley.
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Dec 17, 2009 5:57 PM CST up reply actions
TWSS?
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Dec 17, 2009 7:16 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
LOL'er
A woman's guess is more accurate than a man's certainty.--Rudyard Kipling
by cooliogirl47 on Dec 17, 2009 8:27 PM CST up reply actions
Definitely Rec'd.
"Juuuuuuussst a bit outside. He tried for the corner and missed..."
- Harry Doyle
by Rusty in Peoria on Dec 18, 2009 9:55 AM CST up reply actions
LOL
A woman's guess is more accurate than a man's certainty.--Rudyard Kipling
by cooliogirl47 on Dec 17, 2009 8:26 PM CST up reply actions
awesome.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Dec 17, 2009 9:08 PM CST up reply actions
defensively
Soriano has a UZR in LF of 18.2. That is not brutal.
2009 was obviously a bad year for a lot of Cubs players. There’s nothing to indicate it’s the norm.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Dec 17, 2009 9:08 PM CST up reply actions
Soriano is tradable...
…as long as the Cubs deliver about $50 million along with the player.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Or, could you take on someone else's deal?
What if you sent him to Houston for Carlos Lee? And, say, threw in Sean Marshall to give the Astros a major league starting pitcher?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Lee is a better hitter...
…and they may value Marshall, but I’m thinking the last 2-3 years of Soriano’s deal will be scary for a lot of clubs.
How many years does Lee have left on his deal?
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
According to Cot's Baseball Contracts...
He has 3 years left.
6 years/$100M (2007-12)
signed by Houston as a free agent 11/06
$3M signing bonus
07:$11M, 08:$12M, 09:$18.5M, 10:$18.5M, 11:$18.5M, 12:$18.5M
full no-trade clause, 2007-2010
contract includes nominal weight clause
"Juuuuuuussst a bit outside. He tried for the corner and missed..."
- Harry Doyle
by Rusty in Peoria on Dec 18, 2009 10:00 AM CST up reply actions
I think Soriano...
…has 5 years left. If I am a GM, I would be scared to death of those last 2 or 3 years if I didn’t have some protection.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I'd do that in a heartbeat
which probably means Houston wouldn’t, at least not without some $$ thrown in. I don’t think Marshall is enough to offset the contracts difference.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
You'd likely have to throw in some money.
It would probably be worth it.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Rickett's...
…probably lacks the appetitie to eat any dough here either.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Probably so.
Would make for an interesting offseason, though.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Well...
What is Soriano’s value now what has to be thrown in?
Per Fangraphs, he was worth 22.8M in 07, 13.9M in 08, -3.3M in 09 and is projected to 6.7M in 10. Assuming his 09 was injury impacted and his real value will improve, let’s call him $10M.
If we can trade him to someone who will take the contract and agree to throw in $20M ($4M per year), what is more valuable? Having Soriano or the $14M in freed budget?
I say freeing the budget logjam would be worth throwing in more per year up to $6M.
What does everyone else think?
at daver's request, Let's frontload this B**ch!
And continuing with what MPH said...
I can’t see Houston as willing to give up a 3-year contract on a more-regularly-playing Carlos Lee for a 5-year contract on a less-regularly-playing Soriano, even throwing Marshall in as a sweetener. I’d love to see them do it, but I’m thinking I might win the lottery before I see it happen.
"Juuuuuuussst a bit outside. He tried for the corner and missed..."
- Harry Doyle
by Rusty in Peoria on Dec 18, 2009 11:30 AM CST up reply actions
And I fail at using the Bold function.
I only wanted to bold the word “love” there. :)
"Juuuuuuussst a bit outside. He tried for the corner and missed..."
- Harry Doyle
by Rusty in Peoria on Dec 18, 2009 11:31 AM CST up reply actions
if that did happen
imagine all the bombs lee will hit at wrigley..
Say no to Marlon Byrd, Scotty Pods, and Rick Ankiel.
by jesus christos on Dec 18, 2009 3:05 PM CST up reply actions
i would...........
trade him in a hot second!!!the guy is a liability let’s be real here!he can’t field,strikes out too much,and is waaaaaaay overpaid!
I think we've found our new GM!
I anxiously await the reasonable trading of Milton Bradley.
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Dec 17, 2009 5:09 PM CST up reply actions
BLou has a twin
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Soriano is less tradeable than Milton
Nobody in their right mind would want Alfonso Soriano for even half his remaining contract dollars.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
I would rather trade you BLou
and keep Soriano. Soriano atleast tries, and accepts where he makes mistakes. He doesnt walk around flinging poop like a cracked crazed monkey, as you do so often.
He also understand and replies to facts, unlike 99% of your posts.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
How many years could you sign him for
How many years would a owner or GM be willing to sign Soriano for. I wouldn’t do it for over 3 years with a club option for a 4th and thats taking balls
a few days before you wrote this
Matsui signed with LAA. So i do not think he will sign with NYY
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
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