Rebuilding a playoff roster
by Ivy Walls on Dec 20, 2009 8:53 AM CST
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PrintLet's face it the Cubs roster as a playoff contender is not there. Great we added by subtraction by getting rid of Bradley who might have had greater negative effects on other players performances than reported. But now Cubs leadership need to do some basic things like starting pitching, up-the-middle defense, middle relief, top-the-order hitting and the bench.
First let's face it unless the Cubs know something no one else knows Silva is not the playoff roster answer although if they can patch him together he might provide 10 needed starts and 60+innings pitched in the beginning of the season. Huge question marks remain; Lilly of course, but quietly unmentioned is Zambrano's shoulder health as in "what is it"? Then there is Wells, will he have the normal sophomore slump or continue to surprise the experts who overlooked him? My guess is that we are going to see one of the Cubs AAA prospects as in Cashner or Jackson or both. If the Cubs had a healthy and effective top 4, (Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, & Wells) bringing up a fresh power arm would be a good thing. That said forget the other options as playoff roster players, (Marshall, Gorz, Samardz, or Silva) unless there is a miracle or extra-ordinary transformation. Therefore Cubs need to trade or acquire a genuine arm to insure the probably health or ineffectiveness that should be expected. Who or what is unknown to speculate but marginal assets need to be used in probably a trade for this critical spot.
Now for what Keith Moreland and many, many other baseball officiados have said, defense up the middle. Cubs are short in two key positions; centerfield (yes Captain Obvious I know) and shortstop (okay how many times can you kick a dead horse), but alas not wanting to hear the self-evident does not make a playoff roster. Shortstop is probably a season away (we hope, we hope, we hope), a longer-term solution for CF is still a few years away in Brett Jackson (more hopes, hopes, hopes). To me the biggest free agent neon light on the SS is Miquel Tejeda who would be a good 2-3 addition where this year he could "man" the middle, provide a super solid #2 hitter behind Fukudome and in front of Lee & Ramirez. Next year he could move over and platoon or "man" 2B while tutoring Castro.This could solve two problems.
Now CF, Cubs need a couple of CF types, one who can play effectively 81 games in the smaller field of Wrigley and another who can play effectively in bigger parks. Because we are right-handed unbalanced it would still be nice to find a lefty hitting player. Rumors now are surfacing that Melky Caberra could be available along with Nick Swisher. Caberra could be had with not a huge price of talent and if the Yankees are up to it we might be able to snatch Swisher, who could be a good a super sub in the OF and 1B.
Now for the middle relief, I am okay with the late inning relief but the middle relief is always an issue every year. This unfortunately needs to be reviewed after acquiring the above two essentials. It will be interesting to see what Hendry and staff do here on out to get back to a playoff roster.
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Ivy, I know we have needs
but Lee having another solid year, ARam coming back strong, Soto playing like his rookie year, Soriano playing like we are paying him and Fukudome having his best year as a Cub….these factors are probably more important to making the playoffs than brining in one or two players. Whomever we bring in are probably not going to carry the team into the playoffs, it’s our core that will get us there. Add to that our pitching staff 1-4 and how they perform, that will get us to the playoffs. I think we have a number of good options to complete our roster, my concern is on the players we currently have.
This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).
+ 1 million
Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team
by carmen_fanzone on Dec 20, 2009 12:07 PM CST up reply actions
I see you are practically seeing the world as it is
A healthy Ben Sheets could be an interesting ticket, but so was a healthy Harden. That said you mentioned all players who are on the corners besides Soto. Soto is a big question mark, he has the stuff but he has to produce again.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Two questions I've been meaning to ask about Melky...
1.) I’ve been pretty busy the last couple of weeks, so I wouldn’t be surprised if I missed it, but who and where was it reported that Melky Cabrera to the Cubs (or availability in general) was a possibility?
2.) Honestly, I prefer Melky over signing Byrd, Pods, or Ankiel to a 2 or 3 year contract (I’d take any of the three if we waited a few months and they’d be had on the cheap for a 1 year deal though). Who from our system do you think it would take to pry him away from the Yankees? His value can’t be anywhere close to what it was a few years back…
Hmmm....
I’d take a flier on Gardner or Cabrera. I’m just not sure what the required return value would be for each. Marshall? Wells?
On a side note, as mentioned as possibilities for the Yankees in the article, I’d really like to see the Cubs go after a guy like Ben Sheets or Justin Duchscherer, or maybe even Erik Bedard. Are they out of our price range though?
by Dayton Cubbie on Dec 20, 2009 11:02 AM CST up reply actions
Marshall or Wells for either of those guys would be too much.
Gorzelanny, maybe?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I think there is an over rating on Marshall
He has never stuck as a starter and his stamina and splits tell me he is more effective as a middle reliever——meaning he is available. Wells for now is untouchable unless someone wants to trade a young Cy Young.
My guess is that Melky has the value of a 4th OF prospect (Colvin) or Samardz, but if they want Marshall I wouldn’t bat an eye.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Marshall's never really been given an honest shot as a starter...
Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team
by carmen_fanzone on Dec 20, 2009 12:08 PM CST up reply actions
59 starts so far is nothing to sneeze at
Unfortunately, they’re rarely in long continuous streaks, so it’s fair to say he might have something more to show us given the chance.
In those 59 starts, he has a 4.86 ERA, versus the 3.15 line in 75 relief appearances.
Which is exactly my point...
Save the 24 starts he had in the disasterous 06 season, he’s had 3 seasons of 19 starts, then 7, then 9.
That’s not being given a legitimate shot at being an member of a starting rotation. So to say he’s “never stuck as a starter” isn’t accurate.
Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team
by carmen_fanzone on Dec 20, 2009 7:24 PM CST up reply actions
I wouldn't want to give up on Gorzellany just yet...
Something in my gut tells me we’d regret that.
BTW, I agree that in terms of worth, its probably Wells>Marshall>Gorzellany, but I tend to think there isn’t that much differentiation between the bunch (although this could be because I think most people overestimate Wells’ long term value, even though I hope I’m wrong).
by Dayton Cubbie on Dec 20, 2009 11:33 AM CST up reply actions
I laughed at a few of the comments on that NY Daily News page.
They think they can get Dempster or Zambrano for Cabrera? Wow, Yankees fans must be pretty spoiled.
"I have the time and hatred but not the knowledge." ~Madison Cub Fan (Aug. 25, 2009)
You're kinder than I am...
I was thinking Yankee fans must be deluded when I reading the comments on the NY Daily News page.
"Pinky, are you pondering what I'm pondering?"--The Brain
I'm sure Swisher would be excited about being traded to the Cubs
He’d go from the World Series Champion to the middle of a line-up followed by a bunch of automatic outs.
Yeah, we should start worrying about a player's feelings...
….before we even CONSIDER a trade. Jeesh.
At least you’re consistently a “half empty” kind of guy, grinch, I’ll give you that.
Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team
by carmen_fanzone on Dec 20, 2009 12:10 PM CST up reply actions
CenterField vs. Second Base - If you had to choose between the Two
which one would you add to through free agency or a trade? And I mean more than signing a player that was non-tendered. Which position would you upgrade at with a full-time starter vs. handling through a platoon?
Current Roster Depth at Centerfield = Fuld, Colvin, (assuming Fukudome is the RF)
Centerfield Free Agents = M. Byrd (Projected Runs Created = 69), C. Crisp (RC 53)
Current Roster Depth at Second Base = Fontenot, Baker, Blanco
Second Base Fee Agents = O. Hudson (RC 79), F. Lopez (RC 79), M. DeRosa (RC 69)
My choice would be Second Base and I would go with Felipe Lopez. I think Baker will regress to his COL numbers. I think Fontenot will only partially bounce back and Blanco has never produced more than a defensive replacement.
It somewhat depends on what the trade market is
We’ve only taken some guesses at what it might be. Most of our guesses are fairly educated guesses, so we’ve probably covered the bases, but sometimes a surprise is out there.
That said, your question reflects as much on the current roster. My preference would be to give Jeff Baker the 2nd base job and find a platoon in CF with Sam Fuld (assuming those are the options). I do not anticipate Baker to keep up the insane numbers he had down the stretch last year. That said, I think he can supply an OPS somewhere from .750-.780ish, and that would be enough for me. I’m not sold on Felipe Lopez’s ability to repeat his performance. I’m not sold on either Lopez or Hudson as a top of the order bat, and hitting them at the bottom of the order would be a bit wasteful (I know there’s a valid case for Hudson as a top of the order bat).
Honestly, allow me another second for another andom thought, but perhaps the best route out there would be to
a) Find someone to split time with Fuld in CF.
b) Dump Mike Fontenot, go get Kelly Johnson as an OF/2nd base person
c) Add a power bat off the bench – Jonny Gomes sounds fine. I think the A’s could shop Scott Hairston, which might be an idea.
Thus
Starters: Soto, Lee, Baker, Theriot, Ramirez, Soriano, FA/Trade CF, Fukudome
Bench: Hill, Kelly Johnson, Andres Blanco, Sam Fuld, Scott Hairston
That actually sounds pretty good to me … and it actually sounds somewhat doable. I know Hairston can play CF, but I’d rather pair Fuld and a good defensive guy together, if possible.
Anyhow, dreams are nice.
Crisp
is already out of the picture, no? He’s got a deal pending with Oakland, I think.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Dec 20, 2009 2:22 PM CST up reply actions
Baker did nearly OPS .800 in 333 PAs with the Rockies in 2008
I would be very careful trying to pay for a marginal improvement at 2B, unless you thought Baker would see sufficient playtime as a supersub.
2nd Base = Felipe Lopez
I’d hope for Melky (Gardner more I think) and Lopez at 2B.
A lineup of:
Lopez
Cabrera
Lee
Ramirez
Soriano
Fukudome
Soto
TheRiot
makes me smile… bench of Hill, Baker, Blanco, Hoff, and Fuld wouln’t be sooo awful. Perhaps a trade to NYY would be something like Fontenot, Marshall, and Stevens for Cabrera and a low level prospect?
by socalicubsfan on Dec 20, 2009 6:18 PM CST up reply actions
No thanks on Felipe Lopez.
Baker can do just as good a job, and cheaper.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Right
Lopez might give us a slight improvement over Baker, but unfortunately you have to pay for all of Lopez ($3-5m) rather than just the marginal improvement. And in the process you hamstring the development of a younger guy who could have some cost-controlled time starting for us.
some comments
a) I’m not so sure the Yankees do that. If they move Cabrera, that means Gardner has to start or they have to spend on the market. They are already pleased at saving a lot of money at DH by going with Nick Johnson over Johnny Damon.
Personally, I don’t want Cabrera. He’s a strong armed, a bit scattershot, though, poor route running defensive player whose offensive value I don’t really think fits the needs for the 2010 club to justify a move (that is, I don’t like him in the 2-hole). He’s an aggressive swinger with below average power.
b) I’m also not sold on Lopez repeating his performance. Outside of 05 and 09, he’s been … mediocre to say the least.
Easy question - CF
The 2B situation isn’t great, but the Cubs CF will need to cover for a recovering Soriano next year (and the non-injured Soriano isn’t a good LF, either). But I think they should explore the trad market instead of free agents, unless Jaramillo is really, really, really convinced about Byrd (but the stats claim Melky Cabrera is a better CF).
On 2B, I still wonder if Angelos will get over his man love for Roberts and put him on the block when it becomes clear the Orioles will suck again.
I do like that kind of thinking
Let’s see how well the Cubs play and then look at what we can upgrade in June or July. That got STL in the playoffs last year, but it was a steep price.
All the talk for the Cubs is on CF. While actual trades can stay quiet until they are completed, FA additions always seem to get leaked. the Cub appear to be a lock on CF Byrd.
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 21, 2009 12:10 AM CST up reply actions
Maybe they can get either Tejada or
Orlando Hudson for cheap…
SORIANO! YESSSSSSSS! JIMBO!!!
by CubFaninCA on Dec 20, 2009 3:59 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Why no O-Dog?
Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.
hes overrated
Say no to Marlon Byrd, Scotty Pods, and Rick Ankiel.
by jesus christos on Dec 20, 2009 8:31 PM CST up reply actions
Yep.
Many here say, “stay away from overpriced free agents”. Hudson will be one of those. Plus, we already have a second baseman.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
E
They need quality bench players too. Can’t count on guys like Ramirez and Soriano staying healthy, and I don’t want to see Fontenot out there.
SORIANO! YESSSSSSSS! JIMBO!!!
by CubFaninCA on Dec 20, 2009 10:28 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Agreed CubFaninCA!
Nice weather today, huh?
While I’m not a fan of O-Dog, I think F.Lopez might be a better fit – switchhitter/leadoff or 2nd hitter… I know there are some that think that Fontenot and Baker are our ‘10 2B, but count me as one who’s not too confident. I like Baker available off the bench and I’m done with the whole cajon connection experiment.
by socalicubsfan on Dec 20, 2009 11:03 PM CST up reply actions
Side comment: I'm not sure O-Dog will be significantly overpriced
There’s a lot of 2nd base options and not that many openings. Add in what happened late in the year, and I question if he’ll net his salary last year (3.38 million) That said, I don’t see the point of adding him.
What if the Cubs adopted the NFL "draft the best available player, regardless of need" philosophy?
only in this case, it’d be “sign the best available FA value, regardless of need.”
It seems to be generally accepted that Hendry had maybe $4-5M or so left for a FA signing before dealing Bradley. Now he’s got a few million more, thanks to Seattle. So I think it’s safe to say Jimbo’s got enough to sign a decent FA if he wanted to. Obviously we’re not talking Holliday or Bay but somebody more in the “under $10M” value bin.
Probably the most prudent thing would be to sit on this money, wait until mid-season and make a strategic trade for a playoff push (assuming we’re still in it). But if he wanted to sign somebody now, who is best value (i.e. under $10M) FA out there, regardless of position?
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
There really isn't anyone left in that bin...
… except guys like Byrd and Crisp.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
what about guys like...
Molina, DeRosa, FLopez, Tejada, Ankiel, Capps, Rodney? Not sure, but I would expect that they should all be in the “below $10M” range.
Granted none of them play our perceived top priority (CF) but if we’re looking to improve the team, should we be limiting ourselves to just one position?
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I've made this case before
and will make it again since you’re asking – that Fuld is basically Theriot with better base-running and LH, so a good scenario would be to get Tejada on a one-year contract if you could, trade Riot, and add Church to protect Fuld.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Exactly! That's the kind of scenario I think would behoove the Cubs right now.
Instead of making a “meh” signing like Byrd because he’s a CF and that’s what everyone says we need, let’s sign the best available FA that we can afford, and adjust our personnel appropriately.
Signing Tejada and trading Riot is one way to do that. Signing Molina and trading Soto would be another. My personal favorite is somewhat dependant on market conditions, but if Valverde doesn’t find the big $ he’s looking for, maybe his price will drop more into the Cubs’ range. Then you can include Marmol in a package for a CF or whatever else we need.
I just hate the idea that we’re going to sign Byrd just because he’s a CF. I’d much rather it be because he’s a good CF.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
But the Cubs NEED a center fielder.
I don’t think the NFL model works in this case.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Even NFL teams sign FAs to positions of need
Drafting based on best available makes sense in all sports because of the relative uncertainty of prospects and the generally small impact rookies have on a team their first season. After 2-3 seasons when the draftee is more prepared to contribute, the roster may have shaken up enough that it didn’t matter if that position was previously a strength – hence why you draft by best available rather than need.
Unfortunately the Cubs aren’t in a position to spend much anywhere other than CF and pitching right now.
I disagree that taking the NFL model would work for a baseball team.
Draft picks in the NFL, for example, can often step in and have an impact. Same with the NBA. In baseball, this never happens.
If this theory worked, why don’t baseball teams do it?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I'm not denying the need for a CF...
…but do you really think the marginal improvement the likes of a Byrd represent over a “somebody cheap/Fuld” platoon is really worth the millions (and prolly at least two years) it’s gonna take to sign him?
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I agree with you that spending money on Byrd would be wasted.
That doesn’t mean the Cubs have to go spend it on “best available”. Maybe they should go with the cheap platoon and save the money for a midseason acquisition somewhere where they actually need it.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Let me say this comparing Byrd and Tejada from their 2009 #s
Byrd v. RHP sOPS+ v. RHP 128
Byrd v. LHP sOPS+ v. LHP 91
Tejada v. RHP sOPS+ v. RHP 116
Tejada v. LHP sOPS+ v. LHP 114
So, if you buy that our lineup is unbalanced and needs help v. RHP – Byrd does help more than the other free agent options in our possible range.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Wouldn't be easy...
…to pull off, but would be nice if they could.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Please, not the follow-the-Bears model
“Batting second and playing Centerfield (and still throwing off his back foot), Number 8, Rex Grossman.
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 21, 2009 9:03 AM CST up reply actions
I don't follow football that closely, but I'll be very surprised if...
…at the time Grossman was drafted, he was the best available player. Anybody got Mel Kiper’s number?
I think the Bears just had a brainfart from the get-go on that one.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Bears Traded Down
to get 2 first round picks. Drafted Michael Haynes at 14 and then Rex Grossman at 22. Great first round, except for the Bears.
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 21, 2009 10:21 AM CST up reply actions
Sign Lopez... no Byrd!
Although I think Byrd is likely, here’s what I’m thinking…
I’d take a R. Davis, B. Gardner, or M. Cabrera in CF over Byrd. Not a stats guy, but can anyone back that?
The first two (Davis and Gardner) could be a great lead off option, although they are probably at peak value right now. Since we can’t pry N. Morgan away from the Nats, I’d be psyched on those two. If one of those two were leading off, then bat Lopez number 2. If Cabrera was picked up , then bat him #2 and have Lopez lead off…
C’mon! Anybody agree?
theriot is a better lead off hitter than felipe lopez
shocking, yes
Eric Hanna and FAN of the BULLS, the two greatest BCBers in the history of mankind
by jesus christos on Dec 20, 2009 11:44 PM CST up reply actions
LOL!
Thanks Jesus… you made me laugh on that one! Not disagreeing at all… but what if Lopez could be had for a reasonable amount for a year with an option year… paving the way for TheRiot to move two 2B in a bit.
I like the idea of Melky in that I could see him moving over to RF as Jackson moves up to play CF.
Assuming the price was right
I’d like to see the Cubs take a flyer on bringing Chin Lung Hu in to play SS and moving Theriot to 2B this year. Hu has the reputation as a potentially elite defender so the Cubs infield defense would likely improve with Hu at SS and Theriot at 2B. The Cubs could take 2-3 months to see if Hu can hit enough to stick in the bigs and if he can’t you still have Theriot available and, hopefully, Castro coming on fast.
hu are you talking about
Eric Hanna and FAN of the BULLS, the two greatest BCBers in the history of mankind
by jesus christos on Dec 21, 2009 12:25 AM CST up reply actions
Dodgers guy Chin Lung Hu
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
I wouldn't be against that
but I have my doubts that the Dodgers will move him. They need a cheap backup shortstop.
I agree
but he failed miserably in 2008 in a utility role so it also wouldn’t surprise me to see the Dodgers move him while he has some value. The SS’s on the market right now are all older guys that profile as platoon or utility guys at this stage of their careers.
by circuitclout on Dec 21, 2009 1:52 AM CST up reply actions
not impossible
but problem is … who backs up at short if they move him? They’d have to go out and sign someone because there isn’t anyone else ready to take that role in the system.
Regarding starting pitching....
I know this is water under the bridge, but I really hope we don’t end up regretting letting Harden go. I understand the reasons for not keeping him, both logically and financially, but I have a bad feeling he is going to go somewhere and win 15 games for someone. Especially with not having Lilly until probably May, I would feel much more comfortable with Harden in the mix. I know we’ve got plenty of guys to choose from for the rotation, but I hope we’re not just going with quantity over quality.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
As the market shakes out
I think there will be plenty of veteran guys available if the Cubs want to add to their depth in the rotation. By the way, Harden already signed with Texas.
by circuitclout on Dec 21, 2009 1:45 AM CST up reply actions
AH, IVY WALLS.
Welcome back.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
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