Yankees inquire about Big Z
by jballgame on Dec 21, 2009 9:13 AM CST
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PrintAccording to the New York Post, the Yankees have inquired about Big Z. I know this was hypothetically discussed earlier in terms of players the Cubs could possibly trade to get some salary relief and rebuild. This story, however, confirms there is interest:
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/auld_lang_sign_lnyUGytHfw1E9U0jIMUpMN
According to ESPN-the Cubs' asking price is too high, making the deal unlikely, but ESPN doesn't go into asking price specifics. I, personally, would advocate for this trade if it brought Gardner/Cabrera and some solid pitching prospects. I think we've gotten the best out of Big Z, and it would be wise to get out from under his large contract if we get a solid return.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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I wonder if we asked for Cano?
We’d have to suffer through another year of Theriot at SS nut it swold be worth it to get that bat in the lineup.
Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living."
My guess
is that we asked for either Hughes or Joba. It’s odd … the Yankees don’t want to put both of them in the rotation, and yet, they don’t want to deal either. We would have to land a top level/ready pitching talent to justify a move.
Cano would be the starting for me if I was GM of the Cubs.
We would have to include him and Joba (especially since Hughes has become the set-up man for Mo) and then at least 1 or 2 mid-level prospects for Z. But without Cano why even think about the trade.
That’s not true!!! WHY THE F*CK WOULD YOU SAY THAT YOU AHOLE!! Ok maybe your right but you gotta give a little something here for it to work. I don’t know what I’m going to do this is the worst thing I’ve ever read, this day could not get any worse. Fine, F*ck it, you’re right.
by Ditkavsworld
They take his full contract
and give us Gardner and I would do it in a heartbeat!
I would sleep with Blou if it meant the Cubs would win a WS. by Doggie Stalker on Aug 22, 2009 4:11 PM EDT
+1
Brett Gardner doesn’t come close to the value of Z, despite Z’s contract, which isn’t a real issue for the Yankees.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
I agree
…but what does?
"The more i practice, the luckier i seem to get" -Yogi Berra
by ChiCubsFever on Dec 21, 2009 10:26 AM CST up reply actions
It's hard to get valuations in trades right - at least for me.
But I’d be asking for Phil Hughes.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Ewww..
Did not like what I saw last year at all.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 21, 2009 10:30 AM CST up reply actions
Really?
Tell more.
Who would you target? I didn’t like what I saw in Joba – but then I was always bearish on Joba.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Cano for me would definitelty have th be the centerpiece
throw in Phil Hughes and some cash on their side and I’d maybe consider it..
Wrigley Bound in the Summer of 2010
Those playoff outings were brutal...
I mean, there was no control. It almost looked like his stats got padded in relief against crappy teams during the season, and once he went up against competitive squads, his stuff went to #$#$$@!!. I was not impressed.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 21, 2009 10:33 AM CST up reply actions
Well if you think he has
concentration problems, bringing him to Wrigley to pitch under Lou would be a disaster, then.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
I think Joba is the typical overrated Yankee prospect.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Not surprising, given their focus on New York.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
and,
Boston and LA…they have predicted that the LA Lakers are going to win the NBA finals, the Boston Bruins will win the Stanley cup, Tim Tebow will come back for a fifth year and go up against Pete Carroll in the BCS championship game, Yankees Red Sox World Series and the New England Patriots will win this and next years Super Bowl.
I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
I agree...
…the dude is clearly overrated.
I don’t see anything happening with Z, but if you could get a good package for him, I would take a hard look at it. I am one who thinks you have seen the best from Zambrano (and that was 2-3 years ago), and I also think he could be a high injury risk with him going forward.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
i watched joba a lot last year
his stuff is tremendous, he’s hesitant to attack the zone and really struggled with it while pitching at home. I think he was terrified of the short porch
He didn’t have as many issues on the road
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 10:35 AM CST up reply actions
I was speaking of Hughes, actually..
Just to be clear. But yes, I do think that Chamberlain is overrated, and yes, I also think he’d be much more effective away from New York.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 21, 2009 10:38 AM CST up reply actions
honestly
playing a hypothetical scenario here, I could go one of two ways that I would find amenable without being ridiculous (IMO of course)
a) Hughes or Joba (I still like Joba … and Hughes has too much talent to not ponder it … even though I think he’s been way overhyped), a 2nd tier guy like Manny Banuelos or maybe one of their catchers, and a raw low level talent. I’d be willing to eat a tiny bit of the money.
b) Jesus Montero, Zach McAllister, Jeremy Bleich, and maybe a young catcher.
I guess the short of it is, for me to find any Z to Yankees trade amenable, I’d have to get back Hughes, Joba, or Montero. I don’t think they’ll consider moving Cano, whereas those three, I think they might listen in the right situation.
That said, I doubt any of this happens. The article was a bit speculative.
just to be clear
those hypothetical trades were meant from a value perspective.
Right...
…he actually reminds me some of Farnsworth.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Hughes is who you want
Clark Hughes was stuck in middle Relief Temporarily to fill the Gap Between The Starter and Mariano. He did such an outstanding Job that they kept him there the rest of the season. Hughes is without a doubt the goods here not Joba
Clark? Are you mistaking him with Clark Kent?
And the Cubs would want a starter, which would mean another 1-2 year transition for Hughes. And his performance as a starter was pretty iffy – 2 quality starts in 7 outings.
Phil Hughes
Had been a starter until he got to Majors, His future with the Yankees is as a starter.He throws a lot of fastballs but he can paint the corners with it (unlike Joba) He has an excellent curve and it is there from the time he enters the game.Hughes is the Goods.
The Value would be
Dumping that huge contract! Hendry needs to unload any and all big contracts he can an get ready for the future! Big Z is paid like a #1 and he’s at best a #2. This team has just enough to stay in contention but its to far away from stepping onto a field with the big dogs. TO think otherwise is just plain silly. We need not prolong the inevitable and get started on the rebuild process and allow Ricketts to get his feet under him financially.
I would sleep with Blou if it meant the Cubs would win a WS. by Doggie Stalker on Aug 22, 2009 4:11 PM EDT
by cubsluver22 on Dec 21, 2009 11:52 AM CST up reply actions
"the Cubs' asking price is too high"
When have the Yankees NOT been willing to overpay? If they want him, they’ll get him.
by lswaidz on Dec 21, 2009 9:35 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Not always true.
They didn’t bite on Santana a few years back when he was on the block. They wont overpay if they don’t feel the need to.
"The more i practice, the luckier i seem to get" -Yogi Berra
by ChiCubsFever on Dec 21, 2009 10:35 AM CST up reply actions
Ask Johnny Damon.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
The best news is that
someone is asking about him and that the Cubs are willing to listen. Hopefully the right offer comes along soon.
Join the BCB Flickr Group: http://flickr.com/groups/bleedcubbieblue
if by willing to listen you mean
they’re asking for more than any team is willing to give up……….
Ah Jim, always overvaluing his own players, right up until they have no value at all.
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
by Nunyabidness on Dec 21, 2009 4:57 PM CST up reply actions
I dunno.
I think what we saw from him the past three years is going to be what he produces for the next three years. I would trade him for a decent package in a heart beat, but who are we going to replace him with?
Silly Season
I have no problems with NY inquiring about Zambrano, they are probably just doing thier due diligence, but to suggest that the Cubs would trade Zambrano for a package of Cabrera/Gardner and some prospects is beyond ridiculous.
For those that haven’t noticed, the Cubs are solid contenders for a division championship in ’10 as we stand right now.
If we were talking the Mets, I could possibly see some relevance to a trade starting with Zambrano and Reyes as the main pieces, but Zambrano for prospects is not going to happen. No way, no how.
by jerry morales rules on Dec 21, 2009 9:55 AM CST reply actions 3 recs
You Sir are correct.
This team is built to win now. Lee, ARam, & Sori are going to slide down the hill within 2 to 3 years. Lilly and Demp are getting older and will start to slide soon. Our window is within 2 to 3 years. Unless we flip Z for someone that fit inside that window, not worth it to us.
That’s not true!!! WHY THE F*CK WOULD YOU SAY THAT YOU AHOLE!! Ok maybe your right but you gotta give a little something here for it to work. I don’t know what I’m going to do this is the worst thing I’ve ever read, this day could not get any worse. Fine, F*ck it, you’re right.
by Ditkavsworld
Our realistic window...
Arguably closed last year, I guess we’re all hoping that we can make something happen in 2010. If you trade Z for prospects, then you pretty much have to trade DLee and Lilly with their expiring contracts, and rebuild.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 21, 2009 10:12 AM CST up reply actions
I could agree to the last part of your comment
but I think maybe, just maybe we can wedge that window open for another year or two at best.
That’s not true!!! WHY THE F*CK WOULD YOU SAY THAT YOU AHOLE!! Ok maybe your right but you gotta give a little something here for it to work. I don’t know what I’m going to do this is the worst thing I’ve ever read, this day could not get any worse. Fine, F*ck it, you’re right.
by Ditkavsworld
True...
But not without an “Ace” like Z. It’s not like we have some promising young talent that could just step in and make 30 starts and win 15+ games in his place.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 21, 2009 10:18 AM CST up reply actions
That's why I say we keep him, for now.
We need Z in the rotation. Unless Hendry has decided that it is rebuilding time now. In which case he has signed his own pink slip, because I don’t think Ricketts wants to see his investment go into rebuilding in the first year.
That’s not true!!! WHY THE F*CK WOULD YOU SAY THAT YOU AHOLE!! Ok maybe your right but you gotta give a little something here for it to work. I don’t know what I’m going to do this is the worst thing I’ve ever read, this day could not get any worse. Fine, F*ck it, you’re right.
by Ditkavsworld
You can trade Z for younger players
reinvest the money you were spending on him, and be better both short and long term.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Maybe long term...
But not in the short-term. What SP is out there that would be as effective as Z and that we could get on the cheap to help in 2010? If he was out there, then the Yankees would be targeting him instead of Zambrano.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 21, 2009 10:36 AM CST up reply actions
Joba
personally i think if you moved him to the NL and moved Z to the AL East pitching in Yankee Stadium you’d get similar production out of the two
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 10:38 AM CST up reply actions
Don't tell the Yankees...
But I think you’re right.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 21, 2009 10:39 AM CST up reply actions
Exactly -
If you buy on Joba or buy on Hughes, you take one of those two and stick them in your rotation, plus you can spend more money – preferrably on Chapman.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Z is not an ACE
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
by Nunyabidness on Dec 21, 2009 4:57 PM CST up reply actions
I don't get it, either
What is the textbook defintion of “ace,” anyway?
by Not Bruce Froemming on Dec 21, 2009 6:25 PM CST up reply actions
When I looked it up in the dictionary, I found this:
You’ll note Z lacks the intimidating beard necessary to be a true ace. It’s the same reason we let Maddux go, I hear.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
I thought it would have
Jack Morris or Dave Stewart
two amazing pitchers to watch. Sadly by the time we got the Red Baron he was wearing down, but still was money
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Oddly enough, Z and Sutcliffe have almost the exact same career FIP
Though as you mentioned, Sutcliffe has a solid lead in the beard department.
So the answer appears to be...
… to get Z to grow a beard.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
because we don't have an ACE
which most Championship winning teams have. Doesn’t seem to be that enigmatic to me, but…….
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
by Nunyabidness on Dec 22, 2009 10:19 AM CST up reply actions
That's aceist
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 21, 2009 9:23 PM CST up reply actions
That's the way I see it, too - but with luck, they could still contend.
The Cubs just need (a lot) more luck now.
However, we should also note that after 2011, we have the Bradley/Silva and Fukudome contracts expiring, which should free up $20M to go get an elite OF bat.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Wrong
The window of opportunity to win closed in 2008 for this core. To suggest otherwise is to be drunk on kool-aid.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Nah
I’m no kool-aid drinker, but this team still has a lot of talent. There’s as much evidense to suggest that Dempster, Soriano, Ramirez, and Soto all had down years and will rebound nicely in 2010. I think it’s important to keep in mind that the wheels came off this thing last year. Pretty much everything bad that could have happened did and they still won 83 games.
I think they are a few rebound seasons and some minor adjustments for this team to be a 90 win team.
by jerry morales rules on Dec 21, 2009 10:23 AM CST up reply actions
Don't agree
As a diehard Cub fan since 1977 I have been seduced by similar rationalization statements in the past. The bottom line is this current Cub team has deep problems.
- The rotation is mediocre at best
- The bullpen is threadbare
- Alfonso Soriano and his contract are an albatross with no solution in sight
- The middle infield is a joke for a big payroll team
- Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez are into their 30s
- There is no immediate help coming from the minors
A smart GM admits what the objective analysis tells him. A smart GM recognizes that now is the time to begin a rebuilding program. Especially when you have teams like the Yankees knocking on your door willing to talk about the enigmatic Carlos Zambrano.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
by BLou on Dec 21, 2009 10:27 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Total over-reaction
I’m not going to go down and refute your points though they can be refuted at least to the severity of comments. With all of that, you’d think this was a 65 win team in 2009. It wasn’t. Again, there’s many, many reasons to believe that we will see rebound tyears from Soriano, Ramirez and Soto just to name a few.
by jerry morales rules on Dec 21, 2009 10:35 AM CST up reply actions
I'm actually a bit fascinated
that you keep using the words “Total overreaction”. It sounds like you’re getting some very thoughtful opposition opinion, regardless of whether you agree.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 21, 2009 10:42 AM CST up reply actions
"Thoughtful"???
I’m not sure what is so thoughtful about those 6 points Blue Mike brought up. There’s a lot of emotion in those statements and conjecture.
by jerry morales rules on Dec 21, 2009 10:49 AM CST up reply actions
More like 'thoughless'
than thoughtful.
If your attitudes about the Cubs are indicative of how you conduct your day-to-day life, it’s amazing some of you can get through the day without slitting your throats.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Dec 21, 2009 12:39 PM CST up reply actions
A smart GM
also doesn’t trade his pieces when they’re at the lowest possible value. I could maybe, MAYBE, see starting a rebuilding process in July if we’re out of contention. However, I highly doubt we’ll be out of contention in July.
You start the rebuilding process now and you’ll get a bunch of fringe major leaguers and maybe possible minor league prospects. I doubt you get anybody that would qualify as being a cornerstone piece of a franchise.
"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07
+1
Now is not the time. This team still has possibility. No reason to give up, but I could see July if things don’t work out well.
At that point, Hendry gets fired too.
by jerry morales rules on Dec 21, 2009 11:26 AM CST up reply actions
I don't think that Z is at his lowest possible value, though.
His value should be pretty high. He was up-and-down last year, but he’s still been a very good pitcher.
If he got hurt, or his K/BB rates went completely all to hell this year, his value would take a serious hit.
For now, I’d be quietly listening to offers. No reason to make the move if you aren’t bowled over by the offer, but worth considering just in case.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
"Quietly listening to offers"
is well put. I think if we do trade Z, and we do it smartly, we won’t hear much about it until it happens. If we’re hearing about it, then all too easily Z could make a public comment about where he’d go and where he wouldn’t that would box us in the same way SD was with Peavy.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Maybe not necessarily Z,
but Soriano, Ramirez, and Lilly, are all coming off injuries and/or down years and I would think their value would be low.
"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07
You realize he just cut's paste this in lots of threads ?
No need to bother retyping this or other canned comments on Hendry, Soriano, Z etc.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Dec 21, 2009 11:36 AM CST up reply actions
Rec'd
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
I'd be surprised if anything happened
Any GM should be at least willing to listen to any offer, but as JJ asked above, who do you replace him with? I don’t think they have that much depth in the rotation to trade him and still hope to contend.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 21, 2009 9:56 AM CST reply actions
That's kind of how I felt about Harden.
Who do you replace him with? An honest assessment of the 2010 Cubs is that they have talent, but they’re going to need some big years from some high-ceiling guys in order to realistically contend.
Divesting a high-ceiling, mid-level earning starting pitcher just seems like you’re putting even more pressure on the remaining talented players. We were going to need a bunch of luck anyway – I’d try to catch lightning in a bottle again with Harden, seeing as when he’s good, he’s great.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
He's gone, though
I would have kept him. Maybe Sheets?
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 21, 2009 9:24 PM CST up reply actions
Why not, right? We have to try to shoot the moon somehow.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
I would trade him for Cano
and Hughes. I think that’s a fair trade actually. I would include Theriot also.
:)
2010 is OUR year.
They love Cano
I just don’t see them moving him anytime soon. A couple years ago, maybe. But now not. Hughes, I think they’d listen.
actually i changed my mind.
Zambrano for Cano is good. We’ll use that money we saved from trading zambrano on an actual centerfielder.
COOL BEANS!
by lexmarklover on Dec 21, 2009 10:05 AM CST up reply actions
And then what's your rotation?
Dempster
Wells
Gorz
Silva
Samardzija
Lilly (when and if he comes back 100% from surgery)
Striking fear into the heart’s of NL Central hitters…
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 21, 2009 10:16 AM CST up reply actions
The NL central hitters might be scared of torquering their backs from teeing off to much maybe
That’s not true!!! WHY THE F*CK WOULD YOU SAY THAT YOU AHOLE!! Ok maybe your right but you gotta give a little something here for it to work. I don’t know what I’m going to do this is the worst thing I’ve ever read, this day could not get any worse. Fine, F*ck it, you’re right.
by Ditkavsworld
there are still pitchers out on the market.
oh and last time i checked 77 pitchers had more wins than zambrano last year. Big boy … 9 wins is scaring people.
COOL BEANS!
by lexmarklover on Dec 21, 2009 10:23 AM CST up reply actions
He was injured...
A healthy Z can be dominant. I didn’t know wins became the deciding factor in evaluating a pitcher’s “stuff” or effectiveness.
Please name a pitcher on the market that could match a healthy Z’s effectiveness in 2010? That wouldn’t cost a fortune.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 21, 2009 10:38 AM CST up reply actions
when they're healthy ... Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer
not to mention you can probably find other pitchers on the trading block
COOL BEANS!
by lexmarklover on Dec 21, 2009 10:49 AM CST up reply actions
you can apply the same thing to a "Mentally" healthy Zambrano
and by the way, he’s been hurt a lot the last two years
I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me whiskers
by Nunyabidness on Dec 21, 2009 4:59 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, more like striking fear in the hearts of Central Division GMs
For the $$$$$ they will have to shell out after their hitters pad their stats against the Cubs rotation.
I still think that with some come backs from hitters whose names end in “o” and better health for Ramirez that the 2010 team can be made into a contender in the division (get a CF!). Then if two pitchers get hot, they would have a puncher’s chance in the NL playoffs. If they get to the WS and get flattened there, well, they haven’t even BEEN to the WS since 1945.
lol an ace ... that's funny.
COOL BEANS!
by lexmarklover on Dec 21, 2009 10:20 AM CST up reply actions
and no .. you should probably read a little more.
very smart of you
COOL BEANS!
by lexmarklover on Dec 21, 2009 10:27 AM CST up reply actions
Your post says:
“Cano/Gardner or Cabrera …you got yourself a deal!”
What else is there to read with that?
Wrigley Bound in the Summer of 2010
um the comment about how i changed my mind
actually i changed my mind.
Zambrano for Cano is good. We’ll use that money we saved from trading zambrano on an actual centerfielder.
COOL BEANS!
by lexmarklover on Dec 21, 2009 10:30 AM CST up reply actions
what CF would you go after?
and that leaves a huge hole in the starting rotation
Wrigley Bound in the Summer of 2010
Apparently...
He’s got faith that Silva can step in and be an Ace?
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 21, 2009 10:39 AM CST up reply actions
Ah ha!
I cant believe we have been overlooking Silva! Problem solved. Someone let BLou know that we will be alright.
"The more i practice, the luckier i seem to get" -Yogi Berra
by ChiCubsFever on Dec 21, 2009 10:40 AM CST up reply actions
lol .... i don't think i've ever mentioned silva once
but that’s alright. Like i said before, don’t mention the word ace and Carlos Zambrano in the same sentence. Now that’s funny!
COOL BEANS!
by lexmarklover on Dec 21, 2009 10:51 AM CST up reply actions
what part of money saved do you not understand
It’s not like if this trade goes down that Jim is gonna sit on his cash and just eat turkey for the entire winter. You’re making this move seem like the end all be all.
COOL BEANS!
by lexmarklover on Dec 21, 2009 10:48 AM CST up reply actions
What part of value lost do you not understand?
You lose Zambrano, so you lose that financial obligation – but you also lose nearly the same amount of value in terms of wins. The cost of a win on the free agent market is pretty close to what Zambrano is paid, so it’s a zero-sum move at best.
I'd listen if it were the Cubs...
No use pretending that they wouldn’t be interested in some salary relief right now, and I can’t help but feel that this is the peak — if not past it — of Zambrano’s upside. So since the Cubs look like they’re prepared to write off 2010 in the name of resetting the organization anyway, yeah, I could get behind it.
Figure out a way to send Chamberlain and Cabrera back, and I’d probably do it.
Now we are talking, Cabrera would have to be the centerpiece even if we were to consider a trade
and two other prospects as well. People on here want to toss Zambrano around because they don’t like him but in actuality we desperately need him next year. You really want Dempster our number 1?
Wrigley Bound in the Summer of 2010
I think that with a sizeable amount
of salary freed up, they could pursue other pitching that might help stem the loss a bit.
The point is that the Cubs look to be trying to be “competitive” in 2010, with hopefully an eye toward a long-term restructuring. A move like this would be consistent with that goal.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 21, 2009 10:16 AM CST up reply actions
With this team...
You can’t do any small-scale restructuring. With expiring contracts of useful talent, you pretty much have to blow it up and get max value. Trading Z, yet going into the season with Lee and Lilly wouldn’t make sense.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 21, 2009 10:23 AM CST up reply actions
It makes perfect sense, actually....
I think you’re just having trouble with it. Both of those contracts expire after next season. Right now, they’d be untradeable, even if you wanted to. If you subscribe to the notion that Zambrano has hit his ceiling, this is very much the time to move them. As for the other two, they can naturally roll off the roster, with the Cubs collecting draft picks in the process. Even Ramirez may be gone this time next year. That’s a lot of money freed up to make (hopefully) more thrifty moves, with an eye toward building something long-term with this group of prospects coming up. It may not be the right strategy, but it’s a reasonable one.
There really is no such thing as blowing up a major market team. This would probably be about the closest thing to it. Like I said, not sure I’d say yes, but I’d think about it.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 21, 2009 10:29 AM CST up reply actions
You think Lee and Lilly are untradeable
come mid-season? Maybe I’m misunderstanding you.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
One has a NTC
in the last year of his contract, the other coming off of injury. It’s hard to see those guys going anywhere. As for at the trade deadline, I don’t know. Let’s take that temperature in July.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 21, 2009 10:35 AM CST up reply actions
Lilly can't go anywhere now and Lee won't go anywhere now.
That I agree with. But if we’re obviously out of it, I think they’d waive their NTCs to go to some contending teams. The problem would be if we’re more apparent contender than actual contender – a definite possibility.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
I don't want to start going to far
down this road, as there’s actually a season to be played. But I wouldn’t bank on the Lees wanting to move to change teams potentially twice in a six month period, especially with young children. Derrek has his ring, so I don’t know if he accepts a trade to chase a championship. He might, but again, I wouldn’t bank on it.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 21, 2009 10:45 AM CST up reply actions
Good points
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Guys like Maddux...
Did it multiple times, do you have some inside information about Lee that would make him less hungry to chase a ring and approve a move to a contender? What incentive would he have to stick with a sinking ship in August/September, when contending teams would be knocking on the Cubs’ door to acquire him? It’s not like he’s going to be a Cub in 2011 anyway.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 21, 2009 10:50 AM CST up reply actions
With the exception of his last go...
with the Cubs — which was mostly at his request — when was Maddux dealt mid-season? Even then, he was older, and was heading closer to his home.
No, I would not assume that a 30-something man with a wife, and a disabled child wants to go hopping around the country for another ring. He might, but I would not assume.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 21, 2009 10:54 AM CST up reply actions
He went from the Padres...
To the Dodgers in ‘08, to pitch for a contender. There’s no point in arguing a hypothetical scenario, but what if the Twins or Tigers or gasp White Sox came knocking for an extra bat for the pennant run? All reasonably “local” destinations within a few hours of Chicago.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 21, 2009 11:01 AM CST up reply actions
Maddux played for two teams
for his first 20 seasons and then “bounced” between two other about two hours apart for the next 2 plus and much closer to his home. He probably would not have left Atlanta but for the complications of the contract in 04 before FA rules changed. NTC clause aside Lee like Maddux is not a guy you trade against his wishes and I doubt he would move even at the deadline.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Dec 21, 2009 12:13 PM CST up reply actions
It wouldn't be against his wishes...
I’m sure Jim would sit down with Lee and let him know what teams were interested and what his preferences would be.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 21, 2009 12:56 PM CST up reply actions
He's already
said his preference is the Cubs.
OK I don't know shit about basketball.
by SoulEater7 on Nov. 5, 2009 9:51 PM CST
That's subject to possibly change
Trading Lee, Lilly, and Aram would line up with Ricketts long-term strategy very well.
"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - final words of Dexter season 4...I mean Lovie season 6.
Are you a mind reader?
Can you predict the future? You must be a billionaire if so. Anyone one of those players would love another chance at a WS if the Cubs are out of the mix.
"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.
No I'm not
and neither are you.
OK I don't know shit about basketball.
by SoulEater7 on Nov. 5, 2009 9:51 PM CST
Of course it is...
Now anyway. But let’s wait until the deadline and see where the Cubs stand, and what contenders are interested.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 22, 2009 9:42 AM CST up reply actions
I don't think it will change.
OK I don't know shit about basketball.
by SoulEater7 on Nov. 5, 2009 9:51 PM CST
What makes Lee so unique?
Compared to a local guy like Thome who went to LA, or Maddux, or any other veteran with an expiring contract that approved (whether directly waiving a NTC or through discussions) a trade to a contender.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 22, 2009 7:23 PM CST up reply actions
Just taking him for
his word.
OK I don't know shit about basketball.
by SoulEater7 on Nov. 5, 2009 9:51 PM CST
How are Lilly and Lee untradeable?
Especially mid-season. You don’t think contenders with holes would need a solid veteran lefty SP like Lilly or a Gold Glove power hitting 1B like Lee, both with expiring contracts, for a playoff run? You want Lilly and Lee to “roll off” and collect draft picks? You must have more faith in our organization’s ability to draft young talent than I do.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 21, 2009 10:46 AM CST up reply actions
agreed
If you start dealing guys off, you gotta go all the way with it. There’s no point to a half-hearted rebuild job.
I'd argue Dempster is our #1 if Z stays.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Who else would be
"The more i practice, the luckier i seem to get" -Yogi Berra
by ChiCubsFever on Dec 21, 2009 10:33 AM CST up reply actions
Ted Lilly and Dempster would be ahead of Zambrano
COOL BEANS!
by lexmarklover on Dec 21, 2009 10:35 AM CST up reply actions
I still put Z over Lilly.
But I don’t say that to Lilly’s face.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
too late - you're a goner.
Lilly is in constant mind meld with the internet…
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Re: Cabrera
I’m interested as to why you said “Cabrera would have to be the centerpiece”. Personally, I don’t even want him unless it’s ridiculously cheap. Average CF who has a good, but scattershot arm. Offensively is an aggressive swinger with average discipline. Power isn’t projected to be much better than what you see right now.
As an aside, I can live with Dempster as a number 1 if it’s a “Z or Demp as number 1 … who do you want” type scenario. Dempster has arguably been a better pitcher the last 2 years. Z’s hitting boosts his overall value a tiny bit, but I’d roll with Dempster and feel okay with him as a number 1.
How are they looking "prepared to write off 2010"?
by jerry morales rules on Dec 21, 2009 10:09 AM CST up reply actions
This team is not making moves with 2010 in mind...
the owner has told you that he’s broke, the manager is disinterested, the team has major holes that it’s attempting to fill out of the non-tender basket, they’ve punted twice on their preferred center fielders, and now there’s the possibility of actually having to insert Carlos Silva into their rotation.
This team is not making decisions with the goal of winning in 2010. If it happens, great, but they’re doing nothing to push for success next season.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 21, 2009 10:13 AM CST up reply actions
With all that happened last year
the team still won 83 games. The core of the 2010 team will be the same core of the 97 win 2008 team. None of that core has hit the stage where they are over the hill.
Certainly, the Cubs are making moves that are providing them with some flexibility, but to suggest that they don’t expect to compete is more than an over-reaction to the transactions being made. Not one of the core has been moved.
Are the Cubs perfect? Well, absolutely not. They still have some moves to make, but this team is built to compete in 2010 and will be expected to compete in 2010.
by jerry morales rules on Dec 21, 2009 10:18 AM CST up reply actions
I'm not going to argue with you about this...
Although I never said that they wouldn’t try to be competitive. A bunch of aging 30-somethings, many of whom are coming off of injuries, is not a formula for success. If you can honestly look at this team and see championship contender, or for that matter one that’s seriously trying this offseason to become one, then there’s really no point in arguing with you.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 21, 2009 10:22 AM CST up reply actions
Ramirez 31, Lee, 34, Soriano 33
Those ages are not a problem. Players see some of their best years at those ages. Dempster 32, Lilly 33, Zambrano 28.
Listen, I’m not saying the Cubs are perfect … far from it. But this team as constructed right now can compete in the NL. Would I rather be the Phillies? Of course.
You are just over-reacting to these moves or non-moves. None of the core is gone and none are past thier prime years.
by jerry morales rules on Dec 21, 2009 10:30 AM CST up reply actions
You also have to consider
the timing of such a deal including Zambrano. We wont know the market down the road for a pitcher like Zambrano, and if a big market team with the goods is willing the trade for him now AND take on his contract…it would be a hard offer to refuse. The front office is going to shoot themselves in the foot if Zambrano breaks down halfway through the season and the team is sinking. There wont be a market for him.
"The more i practice, the luckier i seem to get" -Yogi Berra
by ChiCubsFever on Dec 21, 2009 10:22 AM CST up reply actions
Ummm....the Cubs ARE a big market team
Or they should be. And any pitcher can break down half way through a season. The only answer is not to have any pitchers on your team….
The main thing the Cubs need to with Zambrano is hire a psychologist to help him focus his energy and competitiveness.
YEP
The right strategy is for Genius Jim to hike up his pants and begin a wholesale rebuilding campaign designed to coincide with the future hoped for arrival of Castro, Cashner, Jackson.
This current core of players isn’t going to win shit. The window of opportunity to win closed in 2008. If this team stays as is, then we are sub .500 in 2010. Might as well bite the bullet and do this thing the right friggin way.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Would you
BLou…support your statement that the cubs playoff window closes in 2008? Most signs point towards the Cubs having a competitive enough team to sneak in there. Now i’m all for rebuilding and trading for prospects, I just dont necessarily agree that the cubs are done for good as of now.
"The more i practice, the luckier i seem to get" -Yogi Berra
by ChiCubsFever on Dec 21, 2009 10:25 AM CST up reply actions
Ricketts isn't going to...
Make such a bold move his first year and blow this team up. If 2010 is a disappointment, I think you’ll get your wish in 2011 (probably with Ryno as manager).
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 21, 2009 10:28 AM CST up reply actions
Probably
the safest way to go
"The more i practice, the luckier i seem to get" -Yogi Berra
by ChiCubsFever on Dec 21, 2009 10:28 AM CST up reply actions
But why waste the 2010 season falsely pretending?!?!
If your objective head tells you what to do now, then no sense postponing the inevitable. Especially since your tradeable assets will be a year older next offseason.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Because you happen to be incorrect.
First of all, there is no way, under a new ownership and with a GM who is being given one last chance to prove himself, that this team is going to blow everything up and start over. A 90+ loss rebuilding season is exactly the wrong way for new ownership to come in.
Is this a dominant team a la 2008? No. But they are better than the 83-win team of last year, and if they can improve to 88-90 wins and have a little luck, they can absolutely return to the postseason.
You can be negative if you want — I have never seen you otherwise — but the reality contradicts your opinion.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
and with a little bad luck
they can be a 85 loss team with all the same things you talk about being exactly the wrong way to come in…
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 10:48 AM CST up reply actions
Not with a "little bad luck"
since they had a lot of bad luck in 2009 and weren’t close to that bad.
But maybe others are getting desensitized the propaganda-like repetition of exaggeration – so keep at it Blou and DCF!
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
you're exagerating the amount of bad luck in '09
we’ve been through this…
the staff had an ERA that was 30 points lower than their peripherals and the pitching staff had no major injuries…. everyone on it made 26+ starts
you’re just focused on the bad luck in the hitting and ignoring all the good fortune on the pitching
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 11:23 AM CST up reply actions
It wasn't just bad luck in hitting...
… it was major injuries to several key hitters.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Rationalization run amuk
Sorry, but I don’t know how a well-schooled and veteran Cub fan like yourself can look at this current roster and say with a straight face they can reasonably get to the playoffs in 2010. Frankly, I don’t believe you when you state these things.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
On the other hand...
… you are always negative about everything. I can’t remember one optimistic or positive or hopeful post you have ever made.
I’ll repeat something that someone else posted regarding your comments: if you can’t be the least bit hopeful about your team — regardless of how you feel about the decisions made by management — why are you even a fan?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al Yellon on Dec 21, 2009 11:30 AM CST up reply actions 12 recs
I found a couple of pretty positive posts:
Milton Bradley = Professional Hitter
Milton Bradley might be a lot of things, but the man can flat out rake with the best of them in baseball.
by BLou on May 14, 2009 9:11 AM CDT
Prediction.
Milton Bradley will finish within the top 5 for 2009 National League Batting Title. The biggest concern will him having enough at bats to qualify. But even with his mega slow start I have no worries on him hitting WELL over .300 on the season.
by BLou on May 14, 2009 9:14 AM CDT
"I have the time and hatred but not the knowledge." ~Madison Cub Fan (Aug. 25, 2009)
fwiw...
I felt the same way (well, at least about Bradley raking)…
And actually, I still feel that way.
by CubsWin!Oregon on Dec 21, 2009 1:52 PM CST up reply actions
It's too bad he's even better at raking his fingernails across the chalkboard...
we could use a guy like that.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 21, 2009 1:54 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not sure if the Cubs have considered it...
but I really think they could use some more fire in the clubhouse. Preferably flaming out of the left hand batters box. :)
WHY DON’T THEY LISTEN!?!
by CubsWin!Oregon on Dec 21, 2009 3:17 PM CST up reply actions
He is hopeful but not optimistic
That Hendry will get fired.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Dec 21, 2009 5:35 PM CST up reply actions
Straight faced.
Easy. Look at the division.
To look at the Cubs’ roster and think they can’t compete for a division title is just silly.
Nobody rational is “guaranteeing” the Cubs will win the division. But who can’t we compete with?
The Cardinals have not resigned a bat or a real 3rd starter. They may very well be better than the Cubs, but the ’27 Yankees they are not.
As “bad” as the Cubs were in ’09, they were still 3.5 games better than all their other division foes. And who among them is demonstrably better? None of them. Maybe one of them will “rise up” and play better.
But as Al notes, if you think the season is over already, before the calendar year even starts, why not go away and save yourself the pain?
by fsuapollo on Dec 21, 2009 12:00 PM CST up reply actions 7 recs
Red's as well
- Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
- Germans?
- Forget it, he's rolling.
That's a good point
If this is a rebuilding-type year, then Hendry really isn’t being evaluated.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 21, 2009 10:50 AM CST up reply actions
Not necessarily so -
It’s Ricketts’ job to tell Hendry on what basis he’s being evaluated.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
I suppose
I guess if he clears the deck and was told to, he stays.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 21, 2009 11:17 AM CST up reply actions
No, it's not.
Ricketts even stated that he puts people in place and lets them do their jobs, not tells them what to do. If they fail, he will hold them accountable.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Fail at what though?
Is Jim Hendry’s job to rebuild this club or try and win in ’10 or try and build up the core level of talent or just make a profit or what?
I’m not saying the owner should interfere – not at all. But if the Ricketts will only keep Hendry if Hendry gets to the playoffs, then Ricketts is interfering. A good GM should be able to calculate what his club’s odds are, and be able to take a step back in order to take other steps forward. If Hendry’s in an environment where he thinks the club should take a step back, but can’t follow that because he feels the only way he’ll keep his job is through contending, then again, that’s on Ricketts.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
I can't believe that Ricketts....
… would want his first year as owner to be a 90+ loss rebuilding year. That’d send people scurrying away from the ticket windows, and chase corporate sponsorships away.
Ricketts wants to win. Thus Hendry is charged with trying to do so.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
If never wining or making a World Series...
Doesn’t have us scurrying away-nothing will!
I would sleep with Blou if it meant the Cubs would win a WS. by Doggie Stalker on Aug 22, 2009 4:11 PM EDT
by cubsluver22 on Dec 21, 2009 12:17 PM CST up reply actions
What?
But they are better than the 83-win team of last year.
While the team may be in a better POSITION to improve than they were on the last day of the season, they are not BETTER.
- Signed John Grabow
- Traded Jake Fox and Aaron Miles for Jeff Gray
- Let Rich Harden walk.
- Traded Milton Bradley for Carlos Silva
Now, granted, the team is $8 million or so richer at this point, but money doesn’t buy wins, and we don’t know who will be replacing Bradley in the outfield yet. In terms of pure talent, Jeff Gray and a couple of minor league players do not outweigh Fox, Harden, and Bradley in terms of on field sucsess. Yes, we are happy to have Bradley out of the clubhouse. Yes, washing away the stench of Aaron Miles was nice. But neither is getting us any better on the field.
I anxiously await the reasonable trading of Milton Bradley.
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Dec 21, 2009 1:00 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
Well - stated.
There is less talent on the 40-man, but odds are that we will post more wins than the injury-riddled, Bradley-distracted 83-win team. The people who say otherwise aren’t here for the sport of Cubs’ baseball; they’re here for the sport of Hendry hunting.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
wow...
so if anyone suggests we’re not likely to be better next year is here to hunt Hendry…
wow….
this sounds like dictatorial propaganda
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 1:09 PM CST up reply actions
Come now
If you can’t see the motivations behind some of the posts, you’re just not reading them.
You, yourself have said the team should win more than 83, so I’m not sure why you’re up at arms about what I wrote.
I am curious, however, why you are escalating your misrepresentations of what I post? Is this personal for you?
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
i'm just not comfortable
with the broad based generalization that:
“if you don’t think the Cubs are going to be better, you’re out to get Jim Hendry”
i’m not sure there’s ANY escalating or misrepresentation of what you posted there, its in plain sight
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 1:33 PM CST up reply actions
"Dictatorial propaganda"?
As for “if you don’t think the Cubs are going to be better, you’re out to get Jim Hendry” go back and read what I wrote.
I agreed with Stone who said they are not better. I said there’s less talent on the 40-man.
It’s one thing to say the Cubs are not a better team on paper, and another to say the odds are they’ll be below .500.
So, yes, it is clear you are misrepresenting what I write – again.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
are you reading what you wrote?
“but odds are that we will post more wins than the injury-riddled, Bradley-distracted 83-win team. The people who say otherwise aren’t here for the sport of Cubs’ baseball; they’re here for the sport of Hendry hunting.”
that’s a pretty strong indictment of anyone who thinks the Cubs are going to win less than 83 games next year
and the type that reminds of dictators suggesting you either agree with me or can get the “f” out of here
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 1:40 PM CST up reply actions
Oh, Christ, DCF,
don’t overreact. There’s nothing dictatorial about what DGU wrote. I don’t know if I’d use absolutes quite like that, but I think he’s got a point.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Dec 21, 2009 2:18 PM CST up reply actions
I agree DGU's point is valid
those negative are using it time and time again to point to Hendry or Lou.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
While I agree that the Cubs should win more than 83 games this year
To say anyone who disagrees is “Hendry hunting” is pretty low. DCF has his issues with Hendry, for sure. But he’s backed up his pessimism with statistical evidence as well.
DCF has said the team is likely to win more than 83.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Agree with shoemile and DCF?
When I wasn’t attacking DCF?
It’s clear that BLou is here just to attack Hendry for whatever reason he can find traction. There are others following in his trail. I did pair DCF and BLou above, but in general, they’re doing very different things.
While I’ve had run-ins with DCF recently, I’ve praised him in the midst of those as a generally good poster.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Yes,
I agree. When you make statements suggesting that people who think that the 2010 team as composed won’t be competitive are just Hendry bashing, you’re painting with a pretty broad brush.
And if I might just go a step further, you’ve been awfully shrill yourself of late. Now, I’m sure I’ve been little better, as the Granderson fiasco still has me doing a slow burn, but still. We all might do well to try an extra moment of calm before posting.
Just saying.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 21, 2009 1:37 PM CST up reply actions
Well - for my part -
I don’t want to be shrill. If I may, I think part of that is coming from frustration at misrepresentation of what I’m posting. That said, I’m happy to repeat my respect for your perspective and DCF’s.
I agree that taking a deep breath here and there is a good thing.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
What statistical ecidence
shows that Hendry is a terrible GM??? I want to see this proof…I see three NL Central titles and 4 winning seasons since 02 when he took over midseason
I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
by hansman1982 on Dec 22, 2009 6:39 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
or evidence
I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.
A great GM would have been able to do those
things without mortgaging the future on backloaded free agent deals, draft talent so the current holes could be filled from within, and not have missed on his last three big free agent pick ups.
Hendry’s not terrible, but the choices that helped him reach that success are hindering him now.
at daver's request, Let's frontload this B**ch!
Thanks for the well stated...
… but i’m not sure i agree with you.
There is less talent on the 40-man, but odds are that we will post more wins than the injury-riddled, Bradley-distracted 83-win team
.
I think it’s too early to make those odds. The team is not better than the 09 version as of today. Hendry has that $8 million-ish to spend on a CF, but i certainly don’t expect the team will get significantly better due simply to fewer injuries and a return to career norms, although i do think that will help some.
We don’t know how this will end. We spent 10,000 comments debating Bradley for Burrell, and nobody said a thing about Silva and $6 million. It is too early to say if we’ll be better or worse next year yet, and we should give Hendry the chance to fix his mistakes before we crucify them. But if he doesn’t fix this – and he may not, he hasn’t yet – he should be fired.
I anxiously await the reasonable trading of Milton Bradley.
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Dec 21, 2009 1:40 PM CST up reply actions
Huh.
You and I seem to have pretty similar minds on a lot of this, from what I’ve noticed. But you’d fire Hendry at the end of this off-season if he doesn’t bring in the pieces to offset his mistakes?
I can see that being defensible, but for myself I’d wait until the end of this upcoming season. Give him the trade deadline to see what he can do as well. (Mostly, that’s because I’m not sure what we’d gain by getting rid of him any sooner…)
by CubsWin!Oregon on Dec 21, 2009 1:59 PM CST up reply actions
I didn't make this clear...
… which is my bad. I don’t believe you can judge if the mistakes have been fixed without seeing some games.
I don’t think the end of the off season should be his cutoff date. I think if we are heading towards the trade deadline and its clear the team is going nowhere fast, he should be gone. Trade what can be before the deadline, let the new GM use the rest of the season to evaluate what is left, and use next off season to move the Z, Lee, and Soriano like contracts off the books for a younger / cheaper future.
I anxiously await the reasonable trading of Milton Bradley.
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Dec 21, 2009 2:08 PM CST up reply actions
They also presumably have a healthy Soriano, Ramirez and Soto...
… all of whom should put up better numbers than they did in 2009.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
That's the key...
…to reaching 90 wins next year, you have to have Soriano, Soto and Ramirez return to their past productivity. Also, Zambrano needs to give you 200 innings of above average pitching and you hope Lilly recovers well.
If Ramirez goes down, the offense will be in big trouble, and the same goes for the pitching if Z and Lilly don’t pitch relatively well or don’t stay healthy.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Agree partially.
I’m not sure they have to fully return to their “past productivity”. IMO, they just have to be better than the fill-ins.
Even if Sori is never a true stud again, he’s more productive than Reed Johnson, Bobby Scales, et al.
Even if Soto is somewhere between 2008 and 2009, he’s a more productive bat than Koyie Hill (setting aside the defense and Hill’s winning record, which should be factors).
Even if Rami only returns to being near All-Star instead of a top four 3B, he’s more productive than Mike Fontenot (who IIRC took most of the replacement starts).
Totally agree that if Rami goes down, the offense is in trouble again. Also agree on Z needing to be in the rotation and Lilly to come back well.
Soriano
had 522 PA’s last season… and Soto had 389, granted i suppose you could suggest the injuries affected their performance which is what many of you might be getting at anyways, but Ramirez was really the only one injured and out for an extended period of time. Soriano actually played more games in ’09 than he did in ’08
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 1:21 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not saying...
…they need to have great years, but they need to stay healthy and give you reasonably good years.
If for some reason, Soriano has another bad year, the remainder of his contract turns so ugly, you wouldn’t even want to think about it. That is the worst case scenerio, and I would expect him to rebound with better numbers in 2010.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
While i agree with your general sentiment...
…i dont think this can be counted on to bring us wins equaling 7.5 + whatever we lost in not bringing back Harden, Fox and Bradley.
If we continue to operate on the idea that it takes 90 wins to win the division, we aren’t there yet, and counting on healthy / returning to form players is pretty risky. Hendry has a lot of work to do still. It’s too early to judge this off season.
I anxiously await the reasonable trading of Milton Bradley.
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Dec 21, 2009 1:50 PM CST up reply actions
Every season...
…is unique and stands on it’s own merits, because baseball has so many variables.
Sometimes, teams that appear to have less “talent” on paper, actually perform better than previous teams that had a better roster on paper. What is just as important as your overall talent, it how well the pieces of your roster fit together, and the type of players you have to fill certain roles. This is an area I think Hendry has struggled, even while putting together “talented” rosters.
Look at the 04 club, they had a lot of talent on paper, but performed very inconsistantly. IMO, that was because the lineup was not very balanced (with nothing in the one or two hole) and this created extended cold streaks for the offense. In 03, they weren’t as talented on paper, but that club could beat you in a variety of ways and didn’t score 10 runs one day and then get shutout the next game and score one run the next.
Signing talented players costs money, but you are unlikely to get the return on investment (winning a championship) if your club still has critical holes that show up against good pitchers and good teams during crunch time.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Are you agreing with me...
… or implying that the team,while short on talent vs last year, has filled the critical holes it needs to in order to do well?
I anxiously await the reasonable trading of Milton Bradley.
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Dec 21, 2009 2:14 PM CST up reply actions
Not arguing at all...
…just stating that having the “right talent” is more important than having “a lot of talent”.
And no, I don’t think this club has filled areas of need: which I think is being strong at the top of the order and strong up the middle defensively.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Agreed!
I anxiously await the reasonable trading of Milton Bradley.
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Dec 21, 2009 5:25 PM CST up reply actions
Nice analysis
of the ’04 and ’03 teams. The ’04 team was much more talented than the ’03 team, which in my mind makes the ’04 disappointment perhaps even greater than that of ’03.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Dec 21, 2009 2:21 PM CST up reply actions
the '04 team
just had better competition that year, they actually won 1 more game than the ’03 team…
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 2:34 PM CST up reply actions
Yes...
…but the 03 team was only intact (with Ramirez and Lofton) for half the season, and they played very well the last two months.
IMO, the 03 team would have beaten the 04 team in a seven game series 8 times out of 10.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Don't know about that
In ’04 you had a full season of Ramirez, you had Lee at first base, Barrett at catcher, a better bullpen and Maddux in the rotation. Plus Hendry added Nomar at the trade deadline.
On paper, I’ll take ’04.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Dec 21, 2009 3:55 PM CST up reply actions
Barrett at catcher was a downgrade.
He was (per Neyer today) the worst fielding catcher of the last decade.
At his position, the net increase in offense can’t justify the horrific defense.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Nice pieces (except Barrett)...
…but those pieces just didn’t fit together without having some holes to contend with.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
They won one more game
and, based on talent, should have won a lot more than that.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Dec 21, 2009 3:57 PM CST up reply actions
By Pythagorean numbers...
… the 2003 team was an 85-win team and the 2004 team was a 94-win team.
Sounds about right.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Exactly my point...
…you can’t base the strength of a team just on the quanity of talent. You need the right “type” of talent to have a well rounded team.
The 04 club was absolute horseshit in the one and two holes the entire year, and it put too much pressure on the middle of the order to produce.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
i understand the point
but if the competition had been different in ’03 and ’04 would the same be said?
for example if 88 wasn’t enough to get in during ‘03 and we don’t have a run, while 89 is enough to get in during ’04 would we still have the same impression?
perhaps the level of competition around those teams is helping draw the conclusion
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 4:06 PM CST up reply actions
I see what you're saying
That the Cardinals ran away and hid in ’04 certainly skews things. But the wild card was there for the taking.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Dec 21, 2009 6:28 PM CST up reply actions
You can't sell a rebuilding campaign...
To your fan base when there is still a glimmer of hope next year.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 21, 2009 10:52 AM CST up reply actions
I think they're taking a lukewarm strategy -
giving the team the pieces to contend up to mid-season if there are bouncebacks, but without adding any long-term drags.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
I agree up to the Chamberlain part.
Joba’s interesting, but way overrated.
This is an instance where the Cubs could sell high on Z and with prospects and/or ML talent still not give up on winning the division in 2010. Salary flexibility and filling the gaps up the middle put the team in better position to win the division and get deeper in the playoffs.
Unlike Worf, I like the Z show and it’s craziness, but he has yet to show the consistancy to be a 20 game winner. He has the stuff, but always seems to find a way to be around 15 wins.
I don’t want to watch a 2010 season where the team breaks spring training in a budget corner. I believe moving 1 high value player for a decent return improves the chances in 2010.
at daver's request, Let's frontload this B**ch!
by N Oakley on Dec 21, 2009 11:53 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
The asking price damn well better be high.
Two reasons:
1) Zambrano, for all his maddening strangeness at times, is both a very good pitcher and a hell of a competitor.
2) The Yankees (aka the Evil Empire) can afford to overpay. So they must.
by MN exile on Dec 21, 2009 10:11 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Could the Yanks
possibly want Z badly enough to listen to a deal that includes Soriano as well?
"Chicago Cubs fans are ninety percent scar tissue." - George F. Will
Highly doubtful
The Yanks have been down that road with Soriano once, and i’m sure have been following his
digression since then. Also, we all know New York has an open wallet, but trading for Soriano AND Zambrano is alot of money to take on. I would hope that they ask for Cano in any deal involving Zambrano.
"The more i practice, the luckier i seem to get" -Yogi Berra
by ChiCubsFever on Dec 21, 2009 10:16 AM CST up reply actions
probably not
they don’t want to blow up their payroll anymore. Now, with them having saved money with the Damon for Nick Johnson swap, they have enough money available that they could probably take on Z’s contract. I just can’t see them taking both Z and Soriano. Anyhow, they don’t really have a spot for him. I think they’d take Melky’s glove over Soriano in LF. They don’t really need another bat.
I would trade Zambrano in a heartbeat for the right deal
2010 is going to be a lost season. Build this thing RIGHT for the future. If the Yankees or somebody else are willing to pay a premium price to aquire the juvenile and enigmatic, albeit highly talented, Zambrano??? Then fire the weapon and make the trade !!!!
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
I'd die and go to heaven if there was somehow a way to include Alfonso Soriano in a deal
If the Yankees would take Soriano off our hands for the privielege of getting Carlos Zambrano, then I’d be content to receive Brett Gardner and bag of balls in return.
Let the REAL rebuilding program begin NOW !!!
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Since that would really be rebuilding: Zambrano AND Soriano for Gardner and a bag of balls
do you listen to yourself before you type?
Wrigley Bound in the Summer of 2010
You've been around here long enough to know the answer to that by now.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
The head kool-aid drinker chimes in
Ever since you’ve become Kenny Crane’s condidant, your objective side has been thrown out the window. You drink the kool-aid as much as anybody. Worse, you’ve slanted your blog to distract from the meaty challenges facing the Cubs. Can’t wait to have more of the guess the friggin picture contests !!!!
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
"Kenny Crane's condidant"?
Looks like you need typing lessons. And who’s “Kenny Crane”?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Maybe he meant
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 21, 2009 10:40 AM CST up reply actions
Humor lost on audience
I know it’s Crane Kenney. It sounds funnier the other way. But alas, I forgot that humor is lost on the Comic Book Store Guy crowd that overwhelms this blog.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
I thought my response to it was, though
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 21, 2009 10:46 AM CST up reply actions
It's only funny
Because he thought it was funny.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Dec 21, 2009 5:50 PM CST up reply actions
Ha!
the Comic Book Store Guy crowd that overwhelms this blog
Says the man with 4500 posts in his current incarnation. What is this, your fourth? Fifth?
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 21, 2009 10:46 AM CST up reply actions
Worst sense of humor... EVER...!
- Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
- Germans?
- Forget it, he's rolling.
Hey
Isn’t that the new owner of the Richmond Flying Squirrels?
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Dec 21, 2009 5:47 PM CST up reply actions
The truth hurts
Crane recoginized your blog is a big deal. Therefore he was shrewd enough to invite you for an interview, allow you to partake in a couple press conferences, etc. It’s called placating the headmaster of an important blog.
Ever since then your objective side has gone completely out the window. You rationalize away the problems of this franchise to death. You also attack anybody who dare not drink kool-aid and let their objective brain kick in.
Do you deny it? Of course you don’t.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Al
shouldn’t dignify this with a response.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
I haven't been attacked
And I’ve posted here that I think:
- Hendry should have a baseball man for a boss – or be fired
- Crane Kenney shouldn’t have been retained as team president
- Bringing back Maddux in 2008 for the stretch run would have been a bad idea
All things that Al probably would disagree with.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 21, 2009 10:44 AM CST up reply actions
Al has permitted BCB to become significantly watered down
He’s gotten it into his head that his creation is on par with any news outlet that covers the Cubs and therefore believes it would be wise to be less controversial and to make sure he comes across as a Jerome Holtzman type.
Go back and read Al Yellon of three years ago. There is night and day difference between the objective side of the man.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
sweeping generalizations about any media organization
… even a blog by one guy are usually off-target. I don’t think Al’s habitually more watered down. And any instances where he is — I think he was too apologetic about the Bradley trade BEFORE we knew about the money coming with Silva — can be chalked up to randomness.
I'll play along
Is there anything that you can reccomend from 2006? I’ll read it. I’m not going to sift through everything.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 21, 2009 10:49 AM CST up reply actions
criticizing a 96-loss team ...
is like shooing fish in a barrel. The Cubs have been much better since then — even if they’ve disappointed. There’s less to be angry/critical about, IMO.
Actually, no.
I still think Maddux could have helped the Cubs in 2008.
And I think Kenney is doing a good job in the things he is focusing on — business related.
Finally, if Hendry doesn’t clean up his mess this offseason and produce a playoff team in 2010, yes, absolutely, he should be fired or have someone oversee him.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Ok, so you disagree with me on 2 of 3, then
Yet, you haven’t attacked or banned me. So BLou is off base on that.
I still think you were sentimental when talking about Maddux in ’08 . . .
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 21, 2009 10:48 AM CST up reply actions
I believe that...
… Maddux’ veteran presence might have helped that pitching staff. I admit, I have no basis other than a “feeling” about that. Sometimes those feelings work.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
....the truth sounds like Blou's a little jealous .....
A woman's guess is more accurate than a man's certainty.--Rudyard Kipling
by cooliogirl47 on Dec 21, 2009 12:31 PM CST up reply actions
Unfortunate for us.
OK I don't know shit about basketball.
by SoulEater7 on Nov. 5, 2009 9:51 PM CST
Getting rid of Soriano's contract would be HUGE addition by subtraction
But of course you know this.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Now you know...
lol
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Dec 21, 2009 10:33 AM CST up reply actions
"Can’t wait to have more of the guess the friggin picture contests !!!!"
…and I’d bet that many of us can’t wait for you to take your expert analysis someplace else.
What a tool
Numbers may not lie, but they don’t tell the whole truth (and nothing but the truth), either. -- Doug Glanville
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 21, 2009 10:41 AM CST up reply actions
That would be some serious payroll flexibility, however.
To have a sudden $35M to throw around would allow the team to make some real, lasting changes, and to acquire some championship-quality elite players.
I’d hate to lose Z, but if it meant getting out from under the Soriano mistake, I’d seriously consider it.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Gardner????
WOW you People are really in love with Brett Gardner.Gardner was given the CF job last year, got injured and when he came back Melky had won back the CF job like just like he has done for the past 2 years. Gardner with all his speed is an above average outfielder with no arm at best, he hits a lot of line drives and most of the Time they are right at people, his speed still needs to be seasoned. The Potential is there (IS,IS,IS).
i'd trade
Zambrano for Joba straight up
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 10:28 AM CST reply actions
Yep
Better still, I’d trade Zambrano for Phillip Hughes straight up.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
For Zambrano only?
No. For Zambrano and Soriano? Yes.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
I'd take Joba over Hughes
If there was a choice. Something bothers me about Hughes. He’s a bit less risky, and I’d “take him” if that was the only option, but if I had a choice between Joba or Hughes, I buy Joba’s ability to succeed as a starter more.
You'd be seriously disappointed, then.
Joba is way overrated.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
no offense Al
but i’m not someone who is uneducated about the game
Chamberlain was a 1.5 WAR player last year making near the league minimum, Z was a a 3.6 WAR player making 18 million. Two of the last 3 years Z was a 2.8 WAR player, when you take into account the difference in contracts, they’re fairly similar entities
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2692&position=P#value
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=305&position=P#value
I have an opinion because I believe Chamberlain will improve significantly with a move to the NL against inferior lineups and a less hitter friendly park than Yankees stadium.
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 10:41 AM CST up reply actions
Joba has serious durability issues, however.
There’s more to this than just the stats.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
durability issues?
he had an innings limit on him because he’s a young pitcher transitioning to the bullpen, why do you suggest durability concerns?
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 10:47 AM CST up reply actions
Scouting reports -
I have no current subscriptions, so I can’t cite anything – maybe someone else can.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
there's definitely some durability concerns
it’s more body/physically related, but there’s definitely some concerns out there. There’s always risk with pitchers, and with his body and his history, that concern rises a bit.
any more than any other pitcher
was my point…
all pitchers have risk associated with them
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 1:34 PM CST up reply actions
NO Durability Issues
The problem with Joba is the Yankees think they have the next Nolan Ryan in him, He came to the Major Leagues with an instruction manual attached to him limiting him to innings and its winding up to be that he is just a fare to mediocre prospect
Again, I am going to disagree with those who think...
… that ranking players by WAR is the be-all and end-all of analysis, which your post implies.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
no...
my post implies two things:
1) production suggest they’re close when you take into account contracts
2) based on watching him, I believe he’d have a significant improvement against inferior competition in a better park to pitch
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 10:49 AM CST up reply actions
You sir
Have become my favorite BCB contributor.
I don’t think I’ve disagreed with a single thing I’ve read from you.
Shameless self promotion: Check out my website!!!
www.itsnotabook.com
by WittyUserName on Dec 21, 2009 11:04 AM CST up reply actions
thanks
welcome to the minority!
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 11:24 AM CST up reply actions
But yet you will rationlalize the assclown Zambrano to death
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
I thought he agreed that Zambrano needed to grow up
Maybe not. He did disagree to my fanpost a while back when Zambrano was AWOL from the team charter.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 21, 2009 10:54 AM CST up reply actions
True, he's overrated, but
he’d be coming to the NL…that has to help…
100 years would have been nice, but 101 years still has a nice ring to it.
But that won't happen
The Yankees would require the Cubs to eat some portion of Zambrano’s contract, near $60MM for the next 3 years. Probably a significant portion, based on the size of Zambrano’s contract vs. the younger, non-arbitration-eligible Joba.
Beside, how would Big Z bat in the AL? Would he tell Joey G that he wants to bat when he pitches? Or request the be the DH on one of his off days?
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 21, 2009 11:15 AM CST up reply actions
CC liked to bat as much as Z and
he chose to go to the Yankees. Damon looked like sasquatch and chose to go the Yankees.
Players like to play there and make concessions to be part of that (@#$!!) organization.
at daver's request, Let's frontload this B**ch!
players like to get paid
both those instances (as with most) the Yankees made the highest offer and won
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 12:07 PM CST up reply actions
True, but it's a very different proposition than
asking Z to accept a trade to the Royals. Players accept trades to programs perceived to try everything to win and where they expect big money to renew contracts.
As for Z in NY, he’d have a chance to fly under the radar for a little while.
at daver's request, Let's frontload this B**ch!
agreed
n/t
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 12:11 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed
Except the “under the radar” part. If Z thinks the Chicago media blows certain things out of proportion, wait until he’d get a whiff of the NY media.
In Chicago, he's the pitching focus.
In NY, he’d go in as the #3 or #4. The focus on him would be hard core, but not as great as the other guys.
at daver's request, Let's frontload this B**ch!
True...
but look how much attention the 4th and 5th starters in NY get. Plus there’s always plenty of attention on the “new toy”.
Oh, I know.
I just have a theory that Z can withstand anything, provided someone else is getting it worse.
at daver's request, Let's frontload this B**ch!
Depends..
what kind of balls are in the bag. Maybe we could give a couple to BLou
"The more i practice, the luckier i seem to get" -Yogi Berra
Apologies if someone already made this point
But I don’t see this happening. Trading Z now would pretty much signal that the Cubs are starting to rebuild. The nucleus of the past few years — Z, Soriano, Lee, etc. — will be given one more year.
I’m not saying that’s necessarily the right course of action. But the Cubs wouldn’t get anyone who would have as much upside as Z for 2010.
While I personally think trading Z would be good
his numbers haven’t been spectacular in the past 2 years so I fear that it would be selling low. I say hold onto him at least til July and then see if you can get anything.
P.S. I was watching Roseanne last night and they had a flash forward to the future and the headline of their paper said the “Cubs Win. 2010 is their year!”
I feel good about this lol
last year
was his best year in the last 3
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=305&position=P#value
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 10:53 AM CST up reply actions
in my opinion
that would be selling “high” on a bounce
his performance has been in pretty slow and steady decline over the last 6 years. This would be an opportunity to sell on a bit of a bounce in a year where his performance was better
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 10:54 AM CST up reply actions
yes...
his WAR jumped up 0.8 from the previous two years, his K’s jumped back up, his HR’s went back down
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 10:57 AM CST up reply actions
and he might not make 30 starts
Unless I don’t understand WAR (which is possible) I don’t think you can just write off Zambrano’s potentially creeky body.
I can't resist
I think you mean “creaky” :)
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 21, 2009 11:01 AM CST up reply actions
i agree
i don’t think he’s likely to replicate the past season’s production, that’s why i would be very open to moving him
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 11:25 AM CST up reply actions
I get that ...
I bet it’s also why the Yankees thought the Cubs price was too high.
When discussing WAR and Zambrano
It’s important to remember that WAR doesn’t include hitting for pitchers, which fails to capture a significant portion of Z’s value.
WAR is a culmulative stat
If you don’t play, you don’t accumulate WAR.
So I’m not sure what your point is, and I suspect you don’t either.
That's a very fair point.
I always argued the same thing when it came to Marquis. Moreso because he would pinch run also.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
I'm not sure that being a good hitter matters to the valuation of a pitcher in the scheme of things...
Z is a good hitting pitcher, but it’s not like he’s a particularly adept hitter relative to anything else but pitchers. It’s a nice luxory to have a good hitting pitcher, but how much does that create in win shares? I haven’t run the numbers, but I’d be surprised if it ends up being that significant.
(Incidentally, if we’re relying on our pitchers to be a significant contribution to our offense…we have some larger issues than I thought. :))
by CubsWin!Oregon on Dec 21, 2009 3:06 PM CST up reply actions
Z is a good hitting pitcher, but it’s not like he’s a particularly adept hitter relative to anything else but pitchers.
…and his replacement level should be set accordingly.
It’s a nice luxory to have a good hitting pitcher, but how much does that create in win shares?
A better question would be, why wouldn’t it create win shares? Is a hit by a pitcher somehow less valuable than a hit by a position player?
I haven’t run the numbers, but I’d be surprised if it ends up being that significant.
Incidentally, if we’re relying on our pitchers to be a significant contribution to our offense…we have some larger issues than I thought.
This doesn’t even make sense. Z plays for the Cubs. He is a good hitter, and his hitting provides value to the team. It increases his value as a player.
Where does that say anything about “relying” on him to hit? It’s a major part of his value, and people underrate that.
by Wreckard on Dec 21, 2009 4:21 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
sigh...
A better question would be, why wouldn’t it create win shares
I never said it didn’t create win shares. (Hello, Mr. Strawman!) My contention was that I would find it surprising if the hitting ability of a player who gets 2-3ABs every 5 days really makes that much of a difference in terms of team wins to the point that it’s noteworthy. Obviously it has some impact. Every play on the field has some impact.
I see the article you link to there and it makes an interesting case with regard to two years ago (his hitting last year wasn’t nearly as good). Perhaps I’m wrong on the general idea. If I am, it surprises me. Which is exactly what I said originally.
As for Zambrano being a “good hitter”…it sounds like we’re both agreeing that he’s a good hitter relative to other pitchers. He’s mediocre to poor in comparison to the universe of all hitters, which when one takes anything more than a single-season snapshot of his up-years (which were really just 2008, and sort of 2005), is apparent. Given his positional adjustment, then fine…
Anyway, I get that his value is increased as a pitcher because he’s been at times a good (for a pitcher) hitter. I wasn’t arguing otherwise. I’d just like to see more analysis of how much that really impacts the course of a season in the long-run.
As for my last line, I was joking around (hence the smiley face)…I guess I forgot that you don’t really do humor around here.
by CubsWin!Oregon on Dec 21, 2009 8:03 PM CST up reply actions
(not that my last line was particularly humorous)
It was just supposed to be a small amount of levity. That apparently didn’t come through, I guess. o.0
by CubsWin!Oregon on Dec 21, 2009 8:45 PM CST up reply actions
All hitters are only "good" compared to other players at their position
So I really don’t see how that’s a slight. Even the best players fail the majority of the time. The net gain of an outfielder who hits .300 over an outfielder who hits .250 is the same as the net gain of a catcher who hits .250 over one who hits .200, given the same number of at bats.
I see your point that a pitcher can only pitch every 5 days, but that’s still a pretty significant number of opportunities to contribute. Figure a good pitcher gets 80-90 at bats per season – that’s still a lot of at bats.
As for my last line, I was joking around (hence the smiley face)…I guess I forgot that you don’t really do humor around here.
I’m fucking hilarious dude, I’m not sure what you’re talking about.
people also tend to forget
that the difference between hitting 250 and 300 is only about 20 hits on a season
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
that's another good point
It would be hard to rebuild right now because a lot of guys — Soto, Z, Soriano — had bad 2009s and wouldn’t fetch as much on a trade. That’s assuming, of course, that they could be traded.
I'd encourage..........
Everyone to look at Zambrano’s career stats before they make any definitive statements about how good he is. Over the last 3 years, he’s 41-26 with a 3.8ish ERA. These 3 years have also been his highest ERAs of his career……….I’m not suggesting definitively that he’s on the decline, but let’s look at the whole picture without saying “he’s an ace” or “he’s a #1”.
Meanwhile, Lilly is 44-26 with a 3.7ish ERA and Dempster is 28-15 with a 3.3 ERA over the past 2 years……….
I'd be up for trading Z. And if we're considering it, we shouldn't necessarily limit ourselves to the Yankees.
The question is what should we be targeting in return. I don’t think we want IF bats, really – at least not as the centerpiece of the trade. We have a lot of IF depth in the system. CF and high ceiling SP are the two places I’d be looking at. But there doesn’t really appear to be a CF on the trade market where we’d fit with offering Z for that player. It wouldn’t hurt to ask the Rockies if one of Dexter Fowler or Carlos Gonzalez could be had. Plus, the Rockies have pitching talent to seek also in the deal – from former floppity-prospects to still-prospects. I’d love to match up with the Rockies – and Z would love batting there.
After that, you go looking for young arms – and the Yankees aren’t a bad place to look if you buy either Joba or Hughes (see debate above).
All that said, I’d still like to do Z+Riot for Reyes+Niese.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
I like this idea in principle.
The issue is two-fold:
1) Only NYY (and probably BOS and LAA) would have the financial flexibility to take Z without the Cubs having to take a big contract in return and/or send a good chunk of $ with Z.
2) Z has a NTC and I just don’t see him saying yes to a place like COL. I’d love to be wrong, but just don’t see it.
But again… love the idea of getting guys like Fowler and CG. But I doubt anyone is giving up that kind of bounty for Z.
Agreed.
It would have been fun to talk Z with Boston, but they signed Lackey. We could talk Z with LAA, but I don’t like their young pitching. I doubt Colorado could take Z’s contract, but if they would… they might be willing to give up one of Fowler/Gonzalez because they have other OF depth.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Maybe Boston wants to build a ubber-rotation.
Send them Z… and Soriano to replace Bay.
GetitdoneJim!!!
(Sarcasm – in case there’s any confusion.)
I actually like the Angels young pitching in the lower levels
they are a bit thinned out in the upper levels, but there’s some nice promise. I wouldn’t be against a Z discussion to the Angels if they decided on that, as I think there’s enough to build a trade that I’d be alright with.
I have no particular objection to the idea of trading Zambrano...
but for the life of me I don’t understand how some people on BCB evaluate player value. People want to trade Z for a centerpiece of Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner? What the hell?
Zambrano is not a superstar ala Halladay, and I know some argue that on a marginal dollar value per performance he’s a bit lacking, but come on. Z was a 3.6WAR last year. Cabrera and Gardner were around 2WAR and below, with much shorter career numbers to base expectations.
Even if you assume that freeing up salary-room would enable us to get other pieces…who exactly are we going to get to fill out our rotation?
This isn’t a fantasy league and you don’t need to shake the roster snow-globe every two minutes.
by CubsWin!Oregon on Dec 21, 2009 12:11 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
This isn’t a fantasy league and you don’t need to shake the roster snow-globe every two minutes.
tell Jim Hendry that
every offseason significant moves are made…
i think most are suggesting Gardner/Cabrera PLUS a Joba/Hughes. The idea being to fill a need in CF and get cost-controlled ML Ready pitching while providing major financial relief to potentially improve the club over the next few years when guys like Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, etc hit FA
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 12:16 PM CST up reply actions
Z is an amazing Cub phenomenon
in being both overrated by some, but more and more underrated by most.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Z clearly has value...
…but do you think his best years are ahead of him? If so, what are you basing that on?
IMO, I don’t see Z’s mental focus getting any better out of the blue, and I also think he has enouph miles on his wing to cause concern about his recent shoulder problems.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
What difference does that make?
Almost every player on the Cubs has put their best years behind them at this point. Dempster, Lee, Lily, Aramis – given their ages, they’re all past their peak years and will likely never have years as good as their best years.
Z isn’t even 30 yet. He has a lot of good baseball left in him. No he probably will never pitch like he did in his mid-20’s. But he’s still producing at a level close to what he’s being paid.
His greatest crime appears to be that he’s “not an ace” whatever the hell that means.
We agree...
…and that’s why I said “he has value”, but IMO, all indicators are showing his best years are behind him.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Whether his best years are behind him or not is irrelevant to him being underrated.
Carlos Zambrano won’t be 29 till midseason next year and he’s now pitched 8 straight seasons of sub-4.00 ERA. That kind of consistency itself has a lot of value in a starter. How many other starters can you name with 8 straight seasons of ERA+ of 110 and higher?
I certainly have concerns about his ongoing durability given the usage patterns he’s shouldered and that’s one reason why I’d consider trading him. But to hear people constantly put Ted Lilly over Z is underselling Zambrano, focusing more on what he hasn’t been lately, than what he has been throughout his entire career.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
I think...
…there are also a lot of folks who have overrated Z in the last couple of years as well. Many think that 20 win season is right around the corner (or Cy Young) because he will finally get his head together. Back in 2004 or 2005, I agreed with that, but he has been around long enouph now to show his total package (some real good, some not so good) = a guy who wins 13-15 games.
He has more value to the Cubs at this point, because if he stays healthy, where are the Cubs going to replace his wins from?
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Right
My original post said he’s both overrated and underrated.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
That's my issue with trading for Gardner
I’d rather give a similar skilled player a chance.
A Z trade
I’m not against it. But … if the Cubs do pursue a Z trade, then they
a) Either have to find some SP and fast – I doubt the Yankees move Hughes or Chamberlain, and the Yankees top pitching prospects are average, middle of the rotation innings eater types (Zach McAllister) or raw and further away (Arodys Vizcaino). There’s already a need for one starter.
b) should call it quits on 2010 and just rebuild. Z’s been a bit overrated, and he is overpaid, but what he does is eat innings and give you solid performance. If you take that away, we’re looking at a huge gap in the rotation that, when combined with the pen issues, well, it makes it hard to really think anything positive could happen in terms of a playoff push.
That said, trading Z would really clear a lot of money and allow us some payroll breathing room (provided that Ricketts allows for a similar payroll). It seems hard to see a match happen at this point in time, as I don’t think the Yankees talent base is able to fit what our needs are. If they dealt a Hughes or Joba, maybe, but I don’t see them doing that.
Yankees are trying to find some SP, though. I think they may head back to Wang and try to smooth things over with his agent. It could be an interesting storyline to follow, but I doubt that anything comes of this. Sounds like due diligence on their part.
btw
the article sounds a bit more speculative than “Yankees inquire about Big Z”.
Consider the source
it’s the Post
Numbers may not lie, but they don’t tell the whole truth (and nothing but the truth), either. -- Doug Glanville
I do agree that it's doubtful anything comes of this -
not just because the Cubs would want to get back Hughes/Joba, but also because Z has said repeatedly he’s not waiving his NTC.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
on the NTC
I think all players will say that. If push came to shove and we made it clear that we didn’t want him, I think he’d be amenable to waiving it, although where he might allow it to be waived (that is, maybe it’s not the Yankees), I do not know.
You just don't want to get into the PV situation
of getting stuck with Z coming out and saying, “I’ll only waive it to play for the Yankees” and losing leverage. It can be particularly tricky with Z.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Henry's ego is too big to start rebuilding
Whether you think the Cubs should rebuild or not, it doesn’t matter with Henry as GM. He needs a playoff showing in order to keep his job. He’s not going to start a rebuilding process.
What about Jim Hendry
strikes you as him having a big ego?
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
DGU...
…you missed the point. He’s talking about Jim Henry, not Jim Hendry.
(quick google images search)
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
That guy will pay for his crimes...
Oh yes. He’ll pay…
by CubsWin!Oregon on Dec 21, 2009 12:54 PM CST up reply actions
To me, it seems
Hendry doesn’t have much of an ego at all.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Dec 21, 2009 12:58 PM CST up reply actions
It's got nothing to do with "ego".
It has everything to do with saving his job.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Again
If Jim Hendry looks at the Cubs and decides they should rebuild and can’t follow that path for fear of losing his job, then Ricketts is interfering as an owner.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Correct...
…but the Cubs are not in a position to do an all out rebuilding process because of how many long term big money deals they have locked in.
In this situation, the economic times don’t call for selling off your established players, because you would be getting .50 cents on the dollar in value for those clubs to take on those salaries. With the Cubs payroll, they should never have to completely rebuild, but they may very well have to go through a changing of the guard at the top of the baseball operation if 2010 does not produce what Rickett’s would define as a successful season.
Ricketts has made his postion clear; he has said the club has enough talent to win the world series and they need to start developing their own players and stop relying on “fools gold” in free agency. To me, 2010 is about Ricketts viewing it this way; “Jim, we have a payroll that will be north of $140 mil, and that should be good enouph to win, so make the appropriate adjustments within this payroll to put the best club on the field to win a championship in 2010”.
I’ll also make a prediction; you won’t see the Cubs payroll exceed 150 mil for at least the next 3 years (it may even go down 10-20 mil before it goes back up).
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
This conversation is making me laugh
First of all, I agree with those who say it isn’t time to rebuild. If things go horribly south in 2010, then we can start talking about that. But like I’ve said in other posts, I’m a little old-fashioned. I wait to see a team play for a while before I render any sort of judgment on it.
Making a decision almost two months before spring training begins strikes me as being a bit ridiculous.
The other thing I love is how some are citing the “aging” of the team as a reason to blow it up and start all over. Well, how old is Zambrano? 28? Is that too old now?
Look at how many top-line pitchers still are good, or get even better, as they approach their late 30s or even their 40s. There’s no reason not to think Z’s best days are ahead of him.
You build for the future around a pitcher like Z, not kick him to the curb before he’s 30. Unless you think good pitching grows on trees. And if you do, it makes me wonder if you know anything about baseball at all.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Dec 21, 2009 12:52 PM CST reply actions 8 recs
Ditto.
I anxiously await the reasonable trading of Milton Bradley.
Dum spiro spero... | Follow me on twitter or else: @andrewjstone.
by AndrewJStone on Dec 21, 2009 1:24 PM CST up reply actions
reasons to think Z's best days are behind him
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zambrca01.shtml
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=305&position=P#value
1. steady slow decline in K Rate
2. steady slow increase in BB Rate
3. steady slow decline in GB Rate
4. mild decline in IP last two seasons
5. steady upward contact rate against
6. contract value rising, while production dipping
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 12:57 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I have been saying the same...
…for almost 2 years now.
Every indicator is pointing down with Z (including injury risk) and I just don’t see how an objective view reveals anything else.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Yep
Smart baseball men like a Billy Beane, Kenny Williams, Larry Beinfast, Theo Epstein would look at things via objective lens and aggressively seek to move Carlos Zambrano, epsecially in the context of being brutally honest with themselves on where their overall ballclub stands.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
So, is Brian Cashman smart
for trying to acquire Z?
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
It all depends...
…on what he would have to give up in return.
I’m sure the Yankees know Zambrano’s strengths and weaknesses as well as any other club, and they also have the financial ability to take him on for the right price in what they would have to give up.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
So funny that you praise Kenny Williams...
…despite the fact that he was the same guy who picked up Alex Rios’ contract last year.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
But Kenny Williams put together a WS Championship team...
so anything he does is probably smart.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Dec 21, 2009 2:16 PM CST up reply actions
This is ridiculous
I guess then since the White Sox didn’t win the division last year they should trade all their starting pitching. I mean if he was really being objective about things, and right, he would have packed it all in last year.
Billy Beane “went for it” last year and acquired Matt Holliday. How many games out where the A’s when they traded him? Time will tell but it still looks like to me he gave up more for him than he received in July.
And how much is Theo paying Lugo to play in St. Louis? How much was he willing to pay Lowell to DH in Texas? Who thought Renteria would be a good choice to play SS?
Even the best GMs make boneheaded moves. But only Hendry is nailed to them by BLou.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Dec 21, 2009 6:31 PM CST up reply actions
Kenny Williams smart? The guy who is assembling the All Time Bad Contracts team????????
Yeah, he is getting them cheap, but next time the trash guy comes by, ask him how much he wants for the stuff on the truck.
Lots of players have put their best years behind them
Yet are still very valuable.
Zambrano may never be the same pitcher he was in his mid-20’s, but he’s still very good, very young and under contract through his peak years for an amount of money close to what he projects to be worth*.
What about that says “Sell now!”???
*Keep in mind that 1) the market is currently overpaying for starting pitching and 2) $WAR doesn’t count Z’s batting, which is worth at least a couple million per year.
i agree
with a lot of what you wrote
here’s what i don’t agree with:
- “and under contract through his peak years for an amount of money close to what he projects to be worth*”
as noted i believe we’re beyond his “peak years”. I believe his performance is different from usual aging curves because of the innings he’s packed on
- “*Keep in mind that 1) the market is currently overpaying for starting pitching and 2) $WAR doesn’t count Z’s batting, which is worth at least a couple million per year.”
Zambrano had 72 PA’s last year, that’s about 1% of the team’s total PA’s, i can’t imagine its worth “a couple million”.
and then i’d say a couple of other things:
1) his contract is rising, so his production has to improve in order to keep pace with his contract
2) a significant expense tied to pitching concerns me because at any moment you could take significant steps back (due to injury) in value, and with all the innings on Z’s arm and the recurrent shoulder issues the last two years, i’m a bit concerned his health will impact his ability to pitch up to the contract
just my opinion though, i agree Z is undervalued for the consistency he’s brought so far as DGU points out, I’m just of the belief any pitcher making $18 million with a set of deteriorating peripherals should be considered tradeable
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by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 1:31 PM CST up reply actions
I don't disagree that he should be considered "tradeable"
There should be no such thing as an untouchable player, if the price is right.
What bothers me here is the frothing enthusiasm with which so many Cubs fans came rushing into this diary.
Zambrano's a polarizing figure
as many have mentioned he’s likely viewed to fondly or not fondly enough by the majority of the fan base
i also think there’s a decent percentage of the posting population that views this idea as a potential out from some of the mess we’re in tied to long-term expensive, escalating contracts. (This is where i fall in) Because the Yankees could provide that salary relief but also have some young SP’s (Hughes, Joba) that could potentially fill Z’s role
People want to paint the picture as if we either tear everything down or push all our chips in, the problem is that’s too black and white of an approach to the situation we’re in. We’re close enough we should be trying to improve but we’re far enough away we shouldn’t be adding on unnecessary dollars or years. It’s unreasonable to expect a process in which we “blew everything up” and had a firesale would be beneficial. If you make a direction like that you’re destroying your own leverage and hurting the return you get back
so perhaps trading one piece this year is a way of maximizing return on a tepid asset while keeping an eye on the future. Then you can let Lilly or Lee walk if they get 3 year+ offers (or sign them on short term extensions 1-2 years), and all of the sudden you’ve started the rebuilding process without holding this “fire-sale” that would devalue the players you’re trying to move
That’s at least why the idea is so appealing to me
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 21, 2009 2:01 PM CST up reply actions
I agree with this completely
and what’s interesting to ask is – did Jim Hendry ask for precisely what you suggest and that was too much? i.e. did the Yankees just check to see if we’d dump Z for not much beyond salary relief or is this just the beginning of negotiations or is Hendry overrating Z or what. Well, it may not be interesting to ask since we can’t know the answer, but I do wonder if the Yankees just hoped to get Z for nothing much more than taking his contract.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
It doesn't matter
Jim Hendry is not about to trade Carlos Zambrano. Doing so would be an admission of defeat, despite it being the absolute best decision for the longer-term interests of the ballclub.
What Hendry WILL DO is sign a piece of crap like Marlon Byrd in keeping with his long-standing denial on the strengths and weaknesses of this team.
Most good Cub fans recognize 2010 is going to be trainwreck. Most good Cub fans cling to the hope that next offseason is going to be one where wholesale changes are made.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Your sig
is about the only worthwhile aspect of your posts. So I’ll give you that.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Dec 21, 2009 1:01 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
No surprise there
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Yeah but..........
wasn’t it worth it Al? : )
I mean...would you do it again?
I personally had no regrets…whatsoever
Wrigley Bound in the Summer of 2010
LOL
Well, I guess. I didn’t post this myself because I figured, in the end, there would be nothing to it.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
More reports
that the Yankees are in serious trade talks for a starting pitcher with 2-3 teams. Speculation is Harang and maybe Lowe, but I heard that Harang isn’t happening. Perhaps Z is one?
if it ends up being Z
this will be a shocker of epic proportions for the media to have basically let this get through with minimal coverage of it.
oh jeez
another offseason in which Carlos is working out and going to show up “in the best shape of his career”. How many times have we heard this story? I am sure a similar one about Geo will appear around Mach.
Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living."
You're forgetting one small item...
1.) Z has a no trade clause…
2.) NYY is an American League Team…
3.) The AL has the DH…
Z will never pitch in the AL cause of the DH… he loves to hit…
- Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
- Germans?
- Forget it, he's rolling.
Nobody is "forgetting" that.
It has been discussed at length above.
Sabathia loved hitting, too.
I don’t think Z would waive his NTC… but that doesn’t mean he surely won’t.
Ah I missed those posts...
I got tired of wading through the finger pointing and who’s being mean to who posts…
it got lost in the noise
- Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
- Germans?
- Forget it, he's rolling.
Sabathia spent the first 7 1/2 years of his career in the AL...
…so I would think he’s quite comfortable with the concept of just pitching and not hitting.
I don’t think his 1/2 season with the Brewers established such a love for hitting that he really really really had to overcome in order to sign with the Yankees.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
True enough.
He did say all the way up until he signed with NYY that he wanted to stay in the NL so he could hit. But that could have just been posturing.
Maybe Z wouldn’t waive it for an AL team. No way to know until we ask.
I was grilled
a few months ago for ever mentioning the Cubs should try and trade Z for prospects, I think we have seen Z’s best. As I’ve probably said 10 times on here, I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t ever see the Cubs winning the World Series with Z leading the way.
Either a lot of Cubs have bounce back years in 2010, or it could be another mediocre team, similar to 2009.
Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air...
This entire thread is moot.
The newspaper reported that the Yankees were believed to have inquired about Zambrano, but agent Barry Praver says he has heard nothing from Cubs general manager Jim Hendry.
“Jim has not approached us about Carlos waiving the no-trade provision of his contract, nor is Carlos interested in waiving it,” Praver said.
Looks like Z isn’t going anywhere.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Just to play devil's advocate...
Just because Praver says he hasn’t been approached by Hendry…
1) Doesn’t mean that is true (these people lie pathologically)
2) Doesn’t mean the Yankees haven’t approached Hendry
And just because Carlos isn’t “interested” in waiving it, doesn’t mean he wouldn’t.
Again… not saying anything will happen, but IMO Praver’s “denial” doesn’t preclude something from happening.
And, as elgato noted, it gave us something to do for a day.
Jim shouldn't contact Praver
until he knows there’s a deal worth considering.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Just saw that on CSN.
OK I don't know shit about basketball.
by SoulEater7 on Nov. 5, 2009 9:51 PM CST
Wow.
Glad to hear so many folks of the same mind.
A package centering around Cano would be great!
"Bite my shiny metal ass!" -- Bender Bending Rodriguez
"Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead."
by The Jade Scorpion on Dec 21, 2009 4:43 PM CST reply actions
Not so fast buster.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Dec 21, 2009 5:39 PM CST up reply actions
See I'm hoping that those exclamation marks after a very intimidating phrase would indeed cause people to stray away
from this pointless and stupid topic to debate now. See my Intimidation Philosophy, huh?
Wrigley Bound in the Summer of 2010
We need young talent to take over
If it’s not in the minors then I’d trade him for top, emphasis on top, prospects. Now, do we trust our scouting staff enough to find the can’t miss guys in their minors. They haven’t proven themselves reliable. SO with that in mind, my opinion is no. If they do have some obvious young studs we can prey from them, like the Marlins or Rays did, then I’m all for it.
why would the marlins or rays take z?
Eric Hanna and FAN of the BULLS, the two greatest BCBers in the history of mankind
by jesus christos on Dec 21, 2009 6:53 PM CST up reply actions
Please dont trade him to the Yankes unless you get Montero
The Yankees DO NOT need another frontline starter
Yanks close to a deal for a starter
I would sleep with Blou if it meant the Cubs would win a WS. by Doggie Stalker on Aug 22, 2009 4:11 PM EDT
not a salary dump
which might leave out harang and lowe
Eric Hanna and FAN of the BULLS, the two greatest BCBers in the history of mankind
by jesus christos on Dec 21, 2009 9:21 PM CST up reply actions
i am honestly fascinated to find out who they are making a move on
if you eliminate the salary dumps … that leaves a situation where they fork over quality talent for a youngster, or they get lucky and find another team that is willing to give them a discount for some odd reason. If it’s not a salary dump, the first guys that cross my mind are guys like Zach Duke/Paul Maholm (Pirates don’t need to move their salaries … ). I’m honestly at a loss for who else it might be – maybe the Mariners or Rangers? Doesn’t really make sense. Gil Meche comes to mind, but that would seem like a salary dump. Jake Westbrook? That’d be an odd gamble on their part.
Gonna be interesting.
maybe its
carlos silva
Eric Hanna and FAN of the BULLS, the two greatest BCBers in the history of mankind
by jesus christos on Dec 21, 2009 10:53 PM CST up reply actions
what about one of the Braves?
They’ve been talking with Angels about Lowe or Vazquez. Lowe probably falls under the salary dump description but Vazquez could be attractive. I think it’d be a mistake though – that guy just seems to be pitch better in the NL.
And I thought at some point they were dangling Kawakami too, but haven’t seen that name in awhile so maybe they pulled him back?
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
vazquez has a NTC and might not want to leave atlanta because its relatively close to his family
Eric Hanna and FAN of the BULLS, the two greatest BCBers in the history of mankind
by jesus christos on Dec 22, 2009 1:17 AM CST up reply actions
that's what I'm saying.....
But wouldn’t Zambrano technically be a salary dump? Depends on viewpoint, I guess…..will probably know pretty soon.
Firesale
if they’re more than 7 games out by the deadline. Lee, Aram, Lilly, and Z should all be considered as bait for contending teams, especially the Yanks and BoSox.
"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - final words of Dexter season 4...I mean Lovie season 6.
7 games out by the deadline is not bad...try 15 then we'll consider it
and relax…this team isn’t going to be as bad as some predict it will be
Wrigley Bound in the Summer of 2010
I am relaxed, but that's not the point.
I agree with most that the Cubs will be contending for the central. With that said, the strategy of the front office has changed. “If” the team looks similar to last season by the deadline, which is quite possible considering the injury histories of the aging players, than I believe Hendry has to consider moving some high-priced veterans. Their window is almost shut.
"But it doesn't matter what I do, what I choose. I'm what's wrong. This is fate" - Dexter season 4....I mean Lovie season 6.
You're not going to see a "firesale"
unless, as C25 says, they’re so far out of first place they need a telescope to see it. I seriously doubt that’s going to happen.
But it sure sounds like a lot of BCBers WANT it to happen.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Dec 22, 2009 12:01 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, it seems that a lot of posters are predicting dooms day on the season
I dunno, I mean it could happen, but I could just as well see this team make it to the playoffs. I think this team would have to literally go the way of the 2006 Cubs in order for a firesale to happen
Wrigley Bound in the Summer of 2010
I hope the pitcher the yankees are close to acquiring is z...
if we could get cabrera/joba in return that would be a phenomenal deal. Plus, trading z would give use some payroll relief that we could use to fill some more holes.
With whom?
If you trade Z, you’re going to have one gaping, unnecessary hole at the top of your rotation.
I feel like I’m in Bizarro World.
by Not Bruce Froemming on Dec 22, 2009 1:06 AM CST up reply actions
well, if it's a huge gaping hole...
…we just acquired some one of the bodily proportions needed to plug said huge gaping hole. ;-)
Skill level is a whole ’nother issue though. Sorry…..
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Considering how big Big Z is,
that might take a few …
by Not Bruce Froemming on Dec 22, 2009 12:00 PM CST up reply actions
A hole with lots of extra money.
Maybe we could become an offensive team, if we get Cano, and get a high risk – high reward pitcher like Duck or Sheets. Matt Holliday might look good in a Cubs uniform, although that would be a pretty awful defensive team with 3 OF playing out of position.
Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.
But this would be a hypothetical now since they got Vasquez.
Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.
Penultimate!
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
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