Who put the Kool-aid in my egg nog: Predicting the rest of the off-season with an optimistic eye
by DGU on Dec 22, 2009 9:45 AM CST
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PrintThere's such a thing as too much optimism and too much Seligian "hope and faith." I hope I'm not so unrealistic as to predict Jim's next moves included a trade of Micah Hoffpauir and Carlos Silva for Grady Sizemore. But the more I've been thinking about CF, the more I've been thinking a trade first mentioned as a dream is possible. Maybe my egg nog's been spiked. But in the holiday spirit, perhaps we can all talk what we'd like to see now that Milton's gone. I'm going to try and make a case for why the following is possible, and you can shoot it up with holes, if you like, or better yet, come up with your own optimistic plan.
The centerpiece of my optimistic off-season is Jim Hendry acquiring Jacoby Ellsbury. When this was first suggested, I agreed that it was a nice idea, but on the outside chance of occurring. The more I thought about it, the more it seemed plausible. Why would the Red Sox trade Ellsbury? There are a number of reasons. First - they value defense a great deal and Ellsbury just posted a horrid defensive UZR score. At -18.3, Ellsbury was even worse than Fukudome last season. In 2008, Coco Crisp posted a defensive season almost as bad and the Red Sox traded him. The Red Sox depth chart has Mike Cameron in LF, but his value in LF is limited. Especially when you consider the question marks in their offense, sliding Cameron back to CF and signing a corner OF bat for LF makes sense, especially when you add the trade bounty from Ellsbury onto the scales. Or consider it from this perspective - in Jeremy Hermida, the Red Sox have a LH OF who projects to hit better than Ellsbury and has more offensive upside - why not trade Ellsbury and play Hermida-Cameron-Drew?
So, an Ellsbury trade makes sense from the Red Sox side if they receive enough in return. And Jim Hendry seems like one of the GMs most likely to give the most in return. Jim Hendry overpaid for one year of Juan Pierre, valuing Juan's classic lead-off man abilities enough to pay more than any other GM at that time. Since then, Hendry's offensive philosophy appears to have changed, increasing his appreciation of OBP - but Ellsbury offers that increased OBP. Ellsbury is the perfect combo of what Hendry appeared to value in the past and appears to value now - OBP and gaudy speed. In addition to innate reasons why Hendry would overpay for Ellsbury, the Cubs' particular situation cries out for a CF, a LH bat, a lead-off man, a cheaper player, a younger player, and OBP to help replace what was lost with Bradley. Jacoby Ellsbury fits all of those things.
I won't predict what we'll pay in prospects, but I predict it will be significant and probably enough to elicit justifiable grumbling here. The cost in young talent, however, will leave us with more cash to spend this year. I expect the top free agent target, with Ellsbury in the fold, will become Ben Sheets. He will be a better risk than Harden, with nearly as much reward offered. The Cubs will lose Capps to the Nats, but be glad for some late season bargains, including Kelvim Escobar and Randy Winn. Kelly Johnson will be a late signing and win the 2B job in spring training, giving Fontenot a last minute trade. If Rudy J can get Winn's RH swing back together, he'll replace Fuld as Dome's platoon partner. Otherwise, he'll give much-needed rest to Soriano and Dome v. RHP, as well as smart base-running from the bench.
Lineup v. RHP - Ellsbury CF; Fukudome RF; Lee 1B; Ramirez 3B; Soriano LF; Kelly Johnson 2B; Soto C; Theriot SS
Lineup v. LHP - Ellsbury CF; Fuld RF; Lee 1B; Ramirez 3B; Soriano LF; Baker 2B; Soto C; Theriot SS
Additional Bench - Hill C; Winn OF; Blanco SS (Baker backs up 1B)
Opening Day Rotation - Zambrano, Dempster, Wells, Gorzelanny, Sheets
Bullpen - Marmol, Escobar, Guzman, Grabow, Marshall, Parisi, Silva
When Lilly comes back, we'll have been able to evaluate all of Gorz, Parisi, and Silva, dumping the least effective.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Question
If Ellsbury is as bad defensively as you say, why do you want him? His offense, apart from the SB, isn’t that good.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
You basically have to hope that his defense isn't as bad as his 2009 #s.
In 2008, he had positive #s – although in a smaller sample size. You can hope that Ellsbury can rebound the same way Crisp did.
I do think the defense is a big reason to pull back on Ellsbury, but Wrigley Field’s CF is a lot easier to play than Fenway’s.
I also meant to mention this above – Jim is willing to take risks with defense, hoping players will fit (see our LF and RF, who were both tried in CF), which is another reason why he should be willing to pay more for Ellsbury than other GMs.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
I've been combing through reports,
and getting some feedback on this as part of a blog post that I’d written recently about this. You can find it here, by the way, if you’re interested. Ellsbury is overrated – one Sox blogger actually described him as an 8-10 win player – and the Red Sox don’t appear happy at all with his defense, so it’s not a surprise to see him dangling out there.
As for Al’s comments, well, these things don’t exist in a vacuum. He’s at the point where were given a couple of seasons more to develop, he could be quite good. The Red Sox just aren’t inclined to wait. Given the Cubs salary concerns as well, he may make more sense for them. I understand your points though.
Still, this is exactly the sort of dynamic, athletic bat that the Cubs have been looking for since Piniella arrived, so if the Cubs can get in on a trade scenario, I think they really should.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 22, 2009 10:14 AM CST up reply actions
What do you think the Cubs would have to give to get him?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Well,
I don’t think that they could get him directly from the Red Sox, as may piece touches on. I think you’d have to pry him from Hoyer in San Diego if the Gonzalez deal goes down.
I’d like to think that you could snag him with Wells and Colvin from SD, but I suspect that Cashner and Wells might be more interesting for them.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 22, 2009 10:41 AM CST up reply actions
I thought that the price on Ellsbury
would be higher than the price on Granderson (given service time and $$$), and I thought that Wells-Colvin wouldn’t be enough for Granderson. Am I wrong on both counts?
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Hard to say...
The gist that I’ve been getting is that given Granderson’s power, and better defense, he’s viewed as the superior player. But there seems to be quite a bit of noise. Not to pick on the East Coast, or ESPN, but there appears to be some ridiculous overhyping of prospects in that region. Ellsbury, Hughes, and Melky, for example. And don’t even get me started on Pedroia as MVP.
That said, there seems to be some disconnect between baseball people, and the fans/media. I don’t think that the baseball folks are as high on Ellsbury as we think. Hoyer reportedly likes him a lot though, which I guess is what matters.
Ultimately though, that Red Sox/Padres conversation really is one that I think the Cubs should elbow in on. The precedent is there on a Gonzalez trade to get three ready/near-ready prospects in return, and I think that the Cubs could help with that if they can find someone that the Padres front office can get excited about.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 22, 2009 11:14 AM CST up reply actions
I suspect that response is team and stadium dependent
Granderson would be far less attractive to Boston than New York, with Yankee Stadium still having a short porch in right. I thing the Tigers also have different goals than the Red Sox.
I think
It’ll likely be a similar price. Just a gut feeling guess on that. I don’t know if Colvin would’ve held much interest for Detroit, and I doubt Colvin would hold much interest for San Diego. They’ve got some possible corner OF pieces. They’d want some mor range, in all likelihood.
just to expand on that real quick
I think Granderson is viewed as the superior player, but that Ellsbury is viewed as having a bit more potential to tap into, particularly on the power side. I also think that the Yankees ended up giving less than many expected, due to Scherzer’s involvement from the D-backs side, and thus why I think their values are similar.
Actually
I think we’d have to get him from Boston in that, I don’t think San Diego wants Ellsbury. When I tossed this out the other day, I thought the most likely scenario would be that Boston would need/want different assets to complete a deal, to protect their own guys.
I still find it unlikely that Ellsbury comes here, though. If Theo has concerns on Ellsbury’s D, Hoyer likely will as many reports have suggested that they think very much on the same lines. Also, Boston can offer a number of OF’s to complete a deal (ranging from Josh Reddick, Ryan Kalish, Che-Hsuan Lin).
I do agree that Red Sox fans have overrated him. Someone called him an icon the other day, while someone else called him a player with superstar potential.
Well, if Bucholz is part of the deal (going to SD)...
it seems like Boston would want another young pitcher in the pipeline to replace him. Seems like we got a few of those around.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I actually wouldn't be surprised
if San Diego wanted a 2nd arm in a package.
so its a crap shoot
banking on improvement. I guess for the right $$$ its worth a shot, but nothing long term
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
In Ellsbury's case
it’s not about the money so much. He’s cost controlled. The question would be whether we think he’s a better risk and fit than the prospects we’d give up. For example, let’s say the centerpiece of the trade would be Josh Vitters – you could argue Ellsbury is much less of a risk than Vitters. But Vitters and Buchholz (and more) might be able to turn into Adrian Gonzalez for the Red Sox.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
true
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
I'm thinking that
if there is any possibility of this happening, that we’d likely have to give up arms. The Padres actually have a decent group of young positional talent/young positional prospects. Actually, their system is fairly solid overall, but if they need anything, it’s starting potential.
wow..the name Castro has not even been mentioned in this entire thread...
…and odd omission considering the BoSox’s #1 priority in recent years it to find a long term solution at SS. may I suggest a new nickname for Starlin: ‘Elliott Ness’.
Boston
loves Jose Iglesias. They believe that he could start in the bigs right now from a defensive perspective. He needs to try and develop a bit more with his bat, but he’s the future at short for them, with Yamaico Navarro and Derrik Gibson as some other guys to ponder. Don’t be surprised if Iglesias is up in 2011 with Scutaro moving to a utility role.
this would be horrifying
“I won’t predict what we’ll pay in prospects, but I predict it will be significant and probably enough to elicit justifiable grumbling here. The cost in young talent, however, will leave us with more cash to spend this year.”
Why would we have more money to spend? I’m confused on this. All of the sudden we trade for Ellsbury and now we have $10+ million dollars to pursue Ben Sheets? Why?
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 22, 2009 9:59 AM CST reply actions
A few things
1) if you’re “horrified,” the invitation stands to post your own optimistic off-season; I thought about putting Chapman in place of Sheets and starting him in the minors, but the Cubs have been connected to Sheets and Chapman might choose to go where there are other Cubans on the team already.
2) We’d have more money to spend on starters if we spent less money on position players; and besides, as noted above, the Cubs have had conversations regarding Sheets already anyway, so they must think there’s a possibility
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
my optimistic offseason
is probably not considered “optimistic” by most. I would not suggest deals that deplete our farm system (Ellsbury suggestion) or ruin our financial flexibility down the line (Michael Young suggestion you’ve posted).
As i’ve said before there isn’t that much that can be done. “Optimistically” my best case scenario is we largely stand pat, consolidate excess funds and pump it into the upcoming draft, international fa signings (which Chapman would fall into), etc and then continue to operate on the “Win a crappy division and hope you get lucky strategy that the organization has mastered”
I’m just not understanding where the funds for Sheets are coming from. Let’s say we were right up against our budget before dealing Bradley and this is why we weren’t able to make other moves (seems like a fair assumption). This suggests we have 6 million, maybe up to 10 million in wiggle room (optimistic assumption). Sheets is reportedly seeking in excess of 10 million, so where do we have the money? I guess that’s where i’m confused
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 22, 2009 1:31 PM CST up reply actions
the odd thing is
that the rumors, combined with guesses at our financial flexibility pre-Bradley deal, had us with about 5-10 million free (probably more 5 than 10). Thus, I think it was either a case where Hendry was ordered to move Bradley before any other pursuits .. or he really didn’t want to go two years on Cameron, and considering the market wasn’t all that strong, and we only had two free positional holes, that he was sort of biding his time and talking to teams (the most fascinating thing, for me, was rumors of the failed 4-team deal involving the Angels, Cubs, MEts, and Rays).
That said, even if you combined the savings on Bradley this year, we probably aren’t in Sheets range unless he comes down a bit, and even if he does, that would likely limit our ability to pursue other areas unless Ricketts allows for an increase. Put it this way – I don’t see us being able to sign Capps and Sheets (and I think Capps, if he’s focused on his own future, goes to Washington to close).
All I know is that I've read
a Sheets connection in more than one place. So, I’d think our assumptions – on what Sheets would take, or what the Cubs have to spend, etc. – might be wrong.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
i have herd many times he wants to be in Texas
not sure if those are just rumors talking, or truths
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
I'm not saying we'll end up with Sheets -
just that he’s of interest to the Cubs.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
DOH
as usual, my awesome typing abilities and spelling awareness shows why i work with numbers
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
LOL - I never knew Al cud be such a funny guy!
(here we go again…)
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
is he shakin the money maker
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
udderly ridiculous
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 23, 2009 10:45 PM CST up reply actions
lets milk it for all its worth
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
I've had similar thoughts regarding the decent possibly of acquiring Ellsbury.
But most of it has been centered around their desire to rid themselves of Lowell and bring in Gonzalez. Perhaps the Cubs would be willing to take on Lowell and half his contract along with Ellsbury and send the Sox some prospects to use in acquiring Gonzalez. What I would be willing or want the Cubs to part with I’m not sure.
Can't see that working for the Cubs without another back-to-back deal to flip Lowell
There really is nowhere to play him in Chicago – even if he’s healthy his slots in the field match our two best hitters. And the team sure wouldn’t want to bring on more salary for someone without a position – $ have already been a key constraint this offseason.
No offense, DGU
But I’m not a fan of predicting trades — or complicated, domino-effect strategies — without some sort of evidence that they might actually happen. I think we waste a LOT of time on BCB discussing trades that don’t have any chance of happening because, from our perspective, the trades make some sense. Brett Gardner, for example.
I see a much simpler picture forming. The Cubs sign Ankiel to a two-year deal with an option for a third. They sign Capps for Grabow money. After that, the Cubs will re-up Reed for one year or find another righty fourth outfielder.
Cubs lineup versus righties:
Kosuke, Theriot, Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Ankiel, Soto, Baker/Fontenot
The lineup versus lefties is a little cloudy, but Theriot would lead off, Johnson and Baker would be in it, and maybe Ankiel can hit lefties well enough to hit seventh when one is on the mound. If not, Fuld can hit eighth and play center.
I know signing Ankiel isn’t the most popular potential move. But it’s the closest thing to a solution that solves more needs than it creates (depending on the money).
by elgato on Dec 22, 2009 10:17 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
oh, and this isn't criticizing your optimism ...
which is somewhat refreshing, especially compared with another poster on this site. And I appreciate the thought you put into this.
I just think what you’re suggesting is too complicated to ever actually happen.
Time wasting -
Yeah, you can definitely call trade speculation wasted time; I find it more entertaining than reading about Tiger Woods. To each his own. No offense taken.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
I like Dominos
Although I don’t see much strategy in it when I knock them down.
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 22, 2009 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
There was no scotch option, so I opted for egg nog
What the hell, you put effort into this.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 22, 2009 10:19 AM CST reply actions
If we're talking about Ellsbury
it’s important to note that his agent is Boras. More info here
(hope I did that right)
Censorship of anything, at any time, in any place, on whatever pretense, has always been and will always be the last resort of the boob and the bigot.
—Eugene O’Neill
Personally, I like this idea.
Perhaps toonsterwu can weigh in on prospect trading.
IMO, what we would have to send to the Red Sox would be largely dependent upon how involved the deal became.
Purely speculating and spitting in the wind… would Boston like to unload the contract of Dice K? I’m not saying they do… it is a speculative question based on their clear desire to unload some $ (the failed Lowell deal, which was purported to only provide $3M of relief). Dice K is owed $8M in ’10, and $10M each in ’11 and ’12.
If the Cubs sent a pen/starter arm (Marshall/Gorzo) and two low level prospects would the Red Sox send back Ellsbury, Dice K and say $2M?? (Picked $2M which provides $6M of salary relief this year for BOS plus unloading the other two years.)
Again… no idea if this would interest Boston. But the concept intrigues me, even if the particulars needed to be ironed out.
If the deal was “straight up” for Ellsbury it would probably cost the Cubs Marshall/Gorzo, someone off the top 10 list, and another arm or two from the lower minors.
To follow up on myself...
I also picked the $2M because it gives a $6M obligation to the Cubs for 2010, which seems to be roughly the available money.
But if the deal went through, the Cubs would pretty much be done “shopping”… Dice K goes to the rotation, Silva to the ’pen (or scrap heap), Ellsbury takes over in CF. Perhaps you still resign Reed for say $1.5M.
Not saying this is the ideal Cubs roster… just that it would theoretically fill most of the “holes”. How well they would be filled is of course a matter of discussion.
my guess
spec is that boston and dice-k have mended fences after their tiff this season. I think he’s staying put unless they get another quality arm, which doesn’t seem likely at this point.
I think that an Ellsbury trade would likely revolve around talent to send to San Diego. They can slide Mike Cameron over and let josh reddick, ryan kalish, jeremy hermida battle it out in lf. Or, they could join in on the MArlon Byrd/Mark DeRosa chases as LF options.
I’d guess San Diego would want pitching in any hypothetical Adrian Gonzalez deal. If I had to take a stab at it right now, I’d guess either Jay Jackson/Andrew Cashner/Chris Carpenter would be the demand, and tbh, I’m not a big enough fan of Ellsbury to want to make that trade. The problem for us is that, our pitching drops off a bit, so it’s a bit harder to match up, and we can’t really afford to deal Randy Wells right now. I’m not sure guys like Sean Marshall or Tom Gorzelanny hold that much value to either Boston or San Diego right now. I have my doubts that guys like Jeffry Antigua/Justin Bristow could make this deal happen.
Just a whole bunch of speculation, though.
Hendry's offensive philosophy
“Since then, Hendry’s offensive philosophy appears to have changed, increasing his appreciation of OBP – but Ellsbury offers that increased OBP. "
I don’t think this has changed. I don’t think the Cubs organization appreciates OBP enough. I think the Cubs still draft and teach “be aggressive early in the count”
I don’t count signing Bradley as appreciating OBP. That signing was to get more left-handed.
But I do appreciate the use of the word “gaudy”.
2/3rds of poll respondents suggest you are off your rocker
And I’m called the goofy bastard on this board. The only way Boston moves Jacob Ellsbury is in a blockbuster move to get a major-league ready star to help them go up against the Yankees for American League superiority. A move for example to acquire Adrian Gonzalez out of San Diego.
Theo Epstein would have little need to acquire “top shelf” minor league talent from the Cubs in return for Ellsbury.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Re:
That’s the point that I think DGU was trying to make, along with myself and others. If this hypothetical occurs (and right now, I doubt it would), the point would be to give Boston trade assets to send to San Diego to land Adrian Gonzalez and allow Boston to protect some of their prized assets. There’s some speculation out there that Hoyer isn’t a fan of Ellsbury and/or that he doesn’t want Ellsbury (due to potential cost).
Perspective is in order
The Red Sox have the flexibility and luxury of batting Jacob Ellsbury 9th if they want to. He’s not really a vital cog to what they do as a ballclub. In that context Ellsbury is a heckuva good ballplayer for the Red Sox. Theo Epstein has the luxury of hanging onto Ellsbury and having himself a good ballplayer, or using him as critical piece to pull off a blockbuster for Adrian Gonzalez. Epstein has the best of both worlds at his disposal. If he really wants Gonzalez the evidence is there to suggest he can do a deal tomorrow. It comes down to whether he is prepared to add Hoyer or Buchholz to Ellsbury. In the end my bet is he makes the deal. Adrian Gonzalez would be HUGE addition to that Red Sox offense and defense.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
huh, I'm a bit confused
my point is exactly that … that Theo might want Adrian. The part that you are missing is that, I’m not so sure that Jacoby Ellsbury is someone that Jed Hoyer wants. There’s been suggestions otherwise, on both a talent and financial perspective, that Ellsbury might not make sense for the Padres. Short of it is, I think the key to the deal would be Buchholz, and not Ellsbury (as your above comment about adding one on to Ellsbury).
That said, as I’ve noted throughout, I’m not so sure Boston needs to do an Ellsbury swap to make a deal happen. A – the spec on the Padres and JE could be off. B – the Red Sox have plenty of OF prospects they can offer if Hoyer is seeking one. C – While I was leaning towards the Padres dealing him for awhile, my guess right now is that they hold onto him through the start of the year, partly to see how their young talent develops.
IF they move AG … I think it’s going to be after the Holliday/Bay signings. Keep in mind that Hoyer is still learning about that organization there.
as a side point
The Red Sox, ideally, would have another top of the order bat to go with Pedroia. They only way I could see them being okay with a Pedroia/Youkilis tandem at the top of the lineup is if someone like Adrian is there, because otherwise they need Youkilis in the middle of the lineup, likely batting 3rd or 4th. They do have JD Drew and Marco Scutaro, but both of those guys are more ideal as bottom half of the lineup options in the AL.
side point number 2
While Boston would be the favorites to land AG, more due to the talent available but also impacted by the presence of Hoyer, I wouldn’t necessarily say that they could “do a deal tomorrow”. There’s been some speculation that Hoyer is targeting one of Boston’s elite prospects – Westmoreland or Kelly, and the chances of Boston moving either one doesn’t seem high, even though Casey is more of a number 2 projection in a best case scenario.
random aside number 3
Atlanta’s recent trade should put them in strong position to make a deal if San Diego wants it. Boston is probably still the favorite if they would be willing to offer Clay Buchholz, but with the addition of Arodys Vizcaino, the BRaves could afford to deal a top young arm and maybe Schafer, along with another piece or two, to land him, and it would be an intriguing enough package.
Maybe next poll should be
“Who’s most off his rocker?”
a) BLou
b) DGU
c) Ryan Theriot is so awesome!
As for Ellsbury – Damen and toonster have both argued that the Cubs might get in on the kind of trade you’ve suggested. I’m wondering, however, if the Red Sox might do it even apart from the three-way idea. They might think about selling high on Ellsbury if 1) they believe he’s a poor defender and 2) don’t think his hitting will progress any further. If you buy that the Sox might be ready to move Ellsbury, I don’t think it’s hard to buy that Jim Hendry would be one of the most enthusiastic bidders.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
I've got my doubts that they would do it if it wasn't a part of something bigger
Namely because
a) Ellsbury does have a tough more power potential
b) They have a lot of OF depth, but few certainties right now. Rotating Cameron b/w LF and CF allows them to see their young OF’s (Hermida/Kalish/Reddick)
c) Ellsbury allows them to bat Pedroia in the 2 hole … I guess they could opt to let Scutaro lead off, but I don’t see that as a preferable option on their menu right now.
I think PR
is also a big reason they don’t do it unless it’s as something bigger.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
OT: As a total aside
It sounds like the Braves and Yankees could both be in the market for a LF. Some early spec has the Braves pondering Marlon Byrd. I’ll be honest – while I’ve said I could stomach a 2 year deal for Marlon, I don’t really want it that badly, assuming his AAV is around 5-7mil, as was loosely speculated awhile back. Any cheaper (3-5 mil on AAV) and fine.
I still think Byrd is the most likely answer, though. I wouldn’t mind pursuing Kelly Johnson as a backup 2nd/backup corner OF (maybe emergency CF) but I would still prefer Jeff Baker over Kelly, and I’m not sure the Cubs would place that high of an interest with Kelly unless they dumped Mike Fontenot.
I'll give my left nut if Atlanta solves the Marlon Byrd dilemma for the Cubs
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
come on it's the holidays!
i don’t want to see blou lose his left nut … at least, let’s wait until after christmas …
I thought he gave that away in the Harden trade
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Dec 22, 2009 9:00 PM CST up reply actions
tbh
I don’t keep track of BLou’s nuts. If he did, then it’s going to be a little hard to give away a 2nd …
I got that nut back from Texas
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Much like Mike Lowell, I see...
…unable to pass the physical?
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Mike Lowell has nothing left in the tank
Frankly, I had a hard time seeing the attraction that Texas saw. Lowell was once an excellent 3rd baseman but anymore he would have to DH.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Chestnuts Roasting on an Open Fire
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Dec 22, 2009 9:21 PM CST up reply actions
We appreciate the sacrifice BLou
As per Dennis Leary, Master Card will come and collect.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Dec 23, 2009 4:05 PM CST up reply actions
random thoughts on the 2010 squad
Ideally, I would like to carry only 3 middle infielders. I mean, carrying 4 infielders, even if one doubles as a versatile option, is one too many for me. That said, we need a backup shortstop, and if the organization continues to carry a lefty 2nd baseman … we thus run into a problem. Furthermore, there doesn’t seem to be many versatile MI depth options available on the market with lefty bats that can play short and 2nd. Ideally, we’d carry a glove guy, but one does have to ask the question whether or not a glove guy is absolutely necessary if someone like Blanco wouldn’t take Theriot’s spot late in games.
You know … I’d be mildly curious if the Marlins would trade Emilio Bonifacio. I’m not suggesting Emilio as an answer to anything more than a bench guy who offers speed and has the ability to play a dash of short, along with being a lefty bat that (up through the minors, he hit righties better than lefties) can play 2nd (3rd and OF as well). Maybe not him … but someone like him would allow us to get away from this four-headed MI monster which has bugged the heck out of me. It’s not that I don’t like Mike Fontenot – it’s just that, I don’t like 4 MI’s unless they are really, really good (in time, Ryan Flaherty could serve a utility role, but that’s at least 2 years down the line).
I mean, if you look at it, assuming you are carrying 12 pitchers, if you could get by with only one MI backup, that opens up a lot of flexibility. For example, a bench of
Koyie Hill, Eric Hinske (just picking a name out of the hat), Emilio Bonifacio (just using his name for now), Sam Fuld, and say, Scott Hairston (just picking a name out of the hat) looks rather good to me in general (and in particular, for this upcoming season). It would provide versatility through the roof, positionally, and from an offensive skill perspective, ranging from power to speed.
Anyhow, for all the talk about power bat off the bench, I’d rather try to address this four-headed MI monster first. Do I think that will happen? Not sure … wasn’t there a spec/rumor thing the other day about the Cubs pursuing an IF? I never read the details of it, but I thought I saw it somewhere.
guess the players by their 2009 slash line:
player A) 0.304/0.353/0.412
player B) 0.301/0.355/0.415 (hint: rhymes with Ellsbury)
Ouch.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Bob Tewksbury?
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
hi pods
follow me on twitter for fantasy sports analysis @http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 22, 2009 11:56 PM CST up reply actions
player A had a carrer year and is a brutal fielder and baserunner.
….Pods makes Soriano look like Coco Crisp.
If Ellsbury is that bad of a CF, that is frightening, for anyone
…Pods cant play LF let alone CF.
Ellsbury is 26, Pods is 33. Your correct, 2003 was his carrer year, which makes last season a fluke beyond imagination.
So
Are you willing to advocate for Player A by name or is he more meant as a rebuke to the idea of acquiring the man who gave America a free taco?
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Ken Rosenthal suggests that the Yankees are seriously interested in Mark DeRosa to play left field and spell A-Rod at 3rd
If that happens and they do indeed stay away from Damon and Holliday, then that creates interesting options for Atlanta to consider. I could see Damon playing for the Braves.
And why is it that Kelly Johnson has dropped off the face of the planet? What is it about Johnson that teams don’t like? I would have thought he would be gobbled up in a nanosecond.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
DeRosa as a Yank
OUCH! hard to cheer a Yankee on, but harder to root against him, He would also thrive with the media in NY
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
I share your question about what happened to KJ
is he Marcus Giles redux?
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Marcus Giles was done in by steroids
Just like his more famous girlfriend slapping brother. I never heard anything of the sort concerning Kelly Johnson. Plus to look at Johnson is not to see a bulked up ballplayer.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Johnson has had a history of health problems.
He could just be damaged goods.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Would Cubs pursue Randy Winn???
He’s a name I haven’t thought about. But while watching the Blackhawks this evening a good friend from the left coast who was in town suggested that Randy Winn is available to be had.
Not sure how I feel about Winn. He hasn’t played center field in a long time if memory serves. Plus he has got to be into his mid to late 30s by now. And what would San Francisco want? I thought they were in the market for offense, offense, offense.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
winns a FA
Eric Hanna and FAN of the BULLS, the two greatest BCBers in the history of mankind
by jesus christos on Dec 22, 2009 11:40 PM CST up reply actions
Why hasn't his name come up as option for the Cubs?
Or is centerfield play not really an option anymore? The Winn I remember used to be a semi-quality leadoff man who got his hits.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Winn had a bad year last year
and the Giants basically told him “Don’t call us… oh, and we won’t be calling you, either.” His swing against LHP totally collapsed last year. His defense looks as good as ever – ok for CF, excellent for RF. It’s possible there’s not much left in the tank, but I’d love to bring him in as a 4th OF with the opportunity to push for greater playing time. I’m not sure I’d be comfortable giving him the starting CF job, but I did argue Winn’s a better gamble than Coco Crisp.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Maybe Kenny Williams can sign him
Or is he too young?
The Winn you remember must be from five years ago. Winn makes Byrd seem like a great idea.
I think your Kool Aid must have some vodka in it.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Dec 22, 2009 11:56 PM CST up reply actions
Rajai Davis
With the A’s signing Crisp, I wonder if Davis could be had from Oakland. Ideally he is just what the A’s need, good production tied up for awhile at a low cost, so I figured he was never worth mentioning as an option. Last year was his “breakout” year, so maybe they could sell high thinking he is a flash in the pan.
Besides they owe us for Fox. Or was that just pay back for Harden?
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Dec 23, 2009 12:01 AM CST reply actions
Rajai Davis interests me; he's very comparable to Marlon Byrd, in a way.
Davis, like Byrd, hit RHP better than LHP last year, which would help us. Davis offers better defense and better base-running, so both of those things would be great to put atop our order. He’s also a little younger and cheaper by $$$.
The problem is that people talk about Byrd having a career year, but Byrd’s history and numbers project better going forward than Davis’, so you really have to buy into Davis taking a sustainable step forward. And then you have to ask whether he’ll be worth the added trade cost. So, I’m not sure Davis is a better option than Byrd, but I’m interested and particularly like the idea of adding real baserunning and real defense.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
Kelly Johnson?
He hits like Andres Blanco, makes more then Blanco, and isn’t as good defensively. I think I’ll pass.
By the way, Mark DeRosa’s still out there…
There are usually good reasons when a team like the Braves get rid of a player.
I agree, Blanco is a better choice than Johnson, though he would give you more power.
um
statistically, he had horrible luck last year. Since it’s only one bad year, it’s hard to assume that as a trend. He’s also got much more pop than Andres. The two don’t really impact each other – Blanco is a backup shortstop at best, while Johnson is a 2nd/corner OF option.
"Who put the Kool-aid in my egg nog?"
Who got chocolate in my peanut butter?
Who got peanut butter in my chocolate?
Now only 12,859 on the "Cubs Season Tickets Waiting List"...
i'd rather have a highland park 25
but a beer will do as well
VB?
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Dec 24, 2009 11:06 AM CST up reply actions
Hendry
the likely hood that hendry does anything that benefits the cubs would be short of a miracle. his decision making leaves alot to be desired and haven’t a clue why they keep him.
I think Phil Rogers owes you a beer, DGU.
He’s the one who jettisoned the Ellsbury idea into the mainstream, no?
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
DGU, I like this plan... and think it's very feasible.
Al asks a very good question on Ellsbury’s defense. It seems his problem is getting a good jump on the ball. His CF ratings from the fans are very good in the speed, glove, and arm category and the only way you can reconcile that with his sub-par UZR rating is bad jumps on the ball. That may be coachable and it’s certainly more coachable than “speed.”
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Dec 28, 2009 1:10 PM CST reply actions
Thanks -
Is a bad jump the only explanation? I’ve wondered if UZR and Fenway have an issue. You can find large swings in UZR from year to year in Manny’s boston #s, Crisp’s, Damon’s… I wonder if bad bounces off the Monster are the kind of thing scouts and fans can forget, but UZR can’t.
"We’re going to come back here next year healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, and we’re going to be all right. That’s not Hendry’s fault. He thought it was the right move. It didn’t work out. But at the same time, he’s the same guy that put back-to-back championship teams together." - Aramis Ramirez
could be...
according to the fans, Ellsbury ranks high in CF, near guys like Adam Jones, Chris Young, Jordan Schafer, and Coco Crisp. That’s damn good company.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Dec 29, 2009 11:18 PM CST up reply actions
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