For The 2010 Cubs, The Best Relief Might Be Found From Within
Last season, one of the principal reasons the Cubs won only 83 games was the failure of Kevin Gregg as closer. He allowed a nightmarish total of 13 HR in 68.2 innings, including a trio of walkoffs (from Ryan Raburn of the Tigers on June 23, Cody Ross of the Marlins on August 2 -- Ross' was the second of two HR Gregg allowed in that inning on consecutive pitches -- and a three-run job by Kyle Blanks on August 17).
After that last one, Gregg's sixth blown save of the year, even Lou woke up and noticed. Carlos Marmol replaced Gregg as closer, and though he wasn't the Marmol of old (walking 13 in 17.2 innings from August 21 to the end of the year), he also struck out 26, allowed only one HR, and reeled off 11 saves without blowing one in that six-week stretch.
So with Marmol established as closer, Angel Guzman likely his primary right-handed setup man, John Grabow re-signed to be the primary left-handed setup guy (and LOOGY at times), and Jeff Gray (acquired from Oakland) to take on the Aaron Heilman role (and hopefully do it better), the Cubs still need to fill three bullpen slots for 2010. Matt Capps, who they were interested in, signed instead with the Nationals.
Where to go, then, for those three additional arms? Many here have bemoaned Jim Hendry allegedly "doing nothing" (when, in fact, he did go after Capps, who likely signed with Washington because he could close there), and I'm sure Hendry is still working the cellphone inquiring about other relievers.
But what if the right thing here is to "do nothing"? I don't mean that literally, of course -- the Cubs will have a seven-man bullpen no matter what. What I mean is, they may have the right answers right under their noses. We have already seen what happens when the Cubs throw money at a player (Aaron Miles) who turned out to be a far worse performer than two players (Bobby Scales and Andres Blanco) who were already in the organization and who worked in 2009 for the minimum salary.
Follow me after the jump to find out who the candidates are for the three remaining slots, and why the Cubs should choose from among them rather than spend free-agent money on someone who might not be any better.
As I see it, there are at least nine candidates for the three remaining slots. They are, in no particular order: Sean Marshall, John Gaub, Jeff Stevens, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad, David Patton, Blake Parker, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Samardzija. There may be others once the Cubs release the non-roster-invite list; those nine are all on the 40-man roster.
Three of them -- Marshall, Gorzelanny and Samardzija -- are rotation candidates. Now, before you go all "NOWAYSIGNAFREEAGENTGETITDONEJIM!!1!" on me, one or more of those three might surprise us. I think Marshall has done a fine job in his various starting stints, including last year. His 5.24 ERA as a starter (nine starts) is skewed by this May 31 disaster vs. the Dodgers, in which he allowed seven earned runs in 4.1 innings. Take that out of the mix and in the other eight starts he went at least five innings in all of them and posted a 3.83 ERA, with only 12 walks in 40 innings.
Gorzelanny showed flashes of his 2007 form (when he went 14-10, 3.88 for the Pirates) in his two Cub months -- and also flashes of being awful. He deserves a shot at the rotation, but Lou has hinted the Gorz might also work in the pen, as might the Shark, who still needs to have a bigger repertoire. I have always felt that Samardzija was miscast as a starter and would be a better reliever, as he showed at the end of 2008.
But those guys aren't the best options, either. Both Caridad and Berg threw very well in limited action at the end of 2009. Caridad has a live arm and throws strikes -- only three walks in 19.1 innings with the Cubs, only 46 in 131 innings at Iowa (as a starter). Berg is a big guy who throws hard and also throws strikes -- only one walk in 12 major league innings last year. For a bullpen that often had trouble keeping the ball in the strike zone, these two would be a big help. I'd give slots to both of them.
That leaves one more open position for Stevens, Patton, Gaub or Parker. Gaub, who will be 25 in April, was put on the fast track when he was sent to the Arizona Fall League after an outstanding season at Iowa, although he didn't throw very well there (a 9.31 ERA in 10 relief appearances). He did strike out 40 in 31.1 innings at Iowa last year and allowed only one home run. Parker, also 25 next year (in June) was Iowa's closer for most of 2009. He posted 22 saves with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.235 WHIP. Stevens didn't impress me in his 11 major league appearances (eight walks in 12.2 innings) and is the oldest of this group, having turned 26 last September -- for comparison's sake, Stevens is two days younger than Matt Capps. Patton was a waste of a roster spot for the major league Cubs after being taken in the Rule 5 draft in December 2008. Pitching whenever Lou actually remembered he was on the team, he posted a 6.83 ERA and 1.807 WHIP in 20 appearances; mostly, he was stashed on the DL. Patton turns 26 in May and frankly, I don't really think he showed that much talent, even in spring training. I'd give the spot to Gaub, so the Cubs have another lefthander in the pen.
See how easy that is? The seven bullpen slots would be covered with performance at least as good as you'd get by signing [insert name of mediocre free-agent middle reliever here], and at least three of them (Gaub, Berg and Caridad) would be making the major league minimum, thus saving money for other needs. In the next post in this series, I'll look at some of those other needs and how they could be filled.
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150 comments
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Comments
Morning...
I have to say, when you present the case like that, it seems like just a ton of mediocrity; sorry.
If you can say that you’re confident enough that Marmol will quit waking people, Guzman will say healthy, AND Grabow won’t turn into…well, Grabow – and all with rookies behind them – that you wouldn’t find a capable free agent reliever that could fill some different roles, then you’re a more trusting person that I.
OK, then...
… name me one available free agent who is guaranteed to do a better job than the pitchers I mentioned.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Al,
There’s no reason for strawman arguments. No player is guaranteed to be better than another. You’re acquiring the likelihood of a certain level of productivity, which is something that the Cubs bullpen could use in a number of areas.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 26, 2009 9:58 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Why do you raise the strawman strawman argument?
I asked a legitimate question. Who’s out there? Scott Linebrink? Octavio Dotel? Mike MacDougal? You want to bring Kevin Gregg back?
I think the free-agent relief corps is pretty much crap. So the answer to your question is yes, I trust the Cubs rookies to provide at least that level of performance.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Yes, Al
When you ask me to tell you whether someone is guaranteed to outperform another, it’s a strawman. And if I may add, you take it a step further in suggesting that the only alternative is free agency. How about a good ole fashioned trade?
There were a few guys in FA that I thought could help, but for the most part, they’re gone. But that doesn’t mean that Hendry should stand pat.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 26, 2009 10:43 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
OK...
…. seriously, name some middle relief types that are both:
- available by trade AND
- demonstrably better than the in-house options
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I got a better idea,
How about we let the GM do his job? You know, recognize the holes, and fill them? The rumor mill is a lot more quiet regarding players under contract, so I’ve less ability to speculate. Trades are made every week in baseball though, and not just for malcontents.
by Damen Jackson on Dec 26, 2009 10:55 AM CST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
True.
However, I’m going to respectfully disagree with you that we have to “get someone” because you are “acquiring the likelihood of a certain level of productivity”. There’s no guarantee of that beyond the top rank of free agents or players you could acquire by trade. What’s left now is not much above replacement value, which you could certainly get from the relievers already on the roster.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
There was many out there...
Before Hendry forgot there was more needs than trading Bradley while other teams were out there stocking there cabinets with quality arms.
I would sleep with Blou if it meant the Cubs would win a WS. by Doggie Stalker on Aug 22, 2009 4:11 PM EDT
Ah, that's the problem - the FA market in relief IS pretty weak now that the high-$ options have been signed
It may well be better to stand pat and see what happens. By this week, Capps was probably the best choice left and no one is mistaking him for Bruce Sutter.
Building From Within - Isn't This What Mr. Ricketts Was Talking About?
I like these ideas. Give the kids a shot, and if one of them doesn’t get it done, send him down and try another one, as opposed to being saddled with a large FA contract that the Cubs may not be able to move if it doesn’t work. Assuming we’re in contention, this may free Hendry to resolve whatever issues we have at the trade deadline.
So no chance for Carlos Silva?
Or are you projecting him as the 5th starter?
Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team
Silva will likely get a shot at the rotation...
… before he gets shunted to the pen, or the DL.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I agree with you, Al, to an extent
I thought Caridad and Berg pitched very well last year, and really should be on the big league roster. I don’t think it’s possible though. 3 spots are most certainly Marmol, Guzman, and Grabow. A fourth will be reserved for Gorz/Marshall, because Lou loves Marshall, and Gorz is out of options. If one is traded, it opens up a slot. Silva has to have a place too, so he is spot #5. I think the Cubs also want Shark on the roster, so there is spot six. Jeff Gray is likely spot 7, unless he has a Chad Gaudin-esque spring training. Lilly’s injury opens up on more spot, so the Gorz/Marshall spot or the Silva spot will open. However, the Cubs may choose to keep the rule V pick, Mike Parisi. I don’t think he’ll make it, but who thought Patton was going to make it, either?
So, this is what I think will shape up:
SP: Z, Demp, Lilly(inj), Wells, Gorz, Silva(in Lilly’s spot)
RP: Marmol, Grabow, Guzman, Marshall, Samardzija, Gray, Caridad/ Berg/ Parisi/ the rest
Important to keep in mind is that Marshall, Samardzija, and Gray, of the ones I listed as “on the team,” all have one option left. The group for the last, they all have options, other than Parisi, who will likely be back in the St Louis system before the end of Spring Training. Of the three with options (Shark, Marshall, Gray), I think Shark’s and Gray’s spots can be wrestled away, but Marshall is about 99% certain of a roster spot.
But I do agree with you, Al. Caridad and Berg deserve their shots, they earned it last year.
by Mulhollandmania on Dec 26, 2009 10:58 AM CST up reply actions
Patton didn't really make it
The Cubs just kept him on the 25-man roster long enough to DL him until September. Now the Cubs can pop Patton down in the minors if they want.
I hope the Cubs are not making the same mistake with Parisi. With only 12 pitchers on the roster, you can’t afford any dead weight.
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 26, 2009 3:33 PM CST up reply actions
Which raises the question...
… why bother taking Patton in the first place?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
they liked his arm
and now he is on our roster. Lets see how he pans out
I guess.
I just think the Cubs already have four or five better arms.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
oh they do
but we dont HAVE to have the guy in the opening day roster. He is a good arm to have in AA/AAA in case somebody gets hurt. Keep in mind before last year he had only been in A ball.
Sure, but...
… he’s older than just about all of the other potential bullpen arms.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
his upside
is to be exactly what he is- an average bullpen arm. That has value as long as we pay him league minimum. This is another reason why your method makes sense- out of that group of young arms there are going to be some guys that are over matched and suck. Well when they do send them down to Iowa to work on stuff and call up guys like Patton or Jeff Spellcheck. Like I said before even guys like Patton can have nice runs due to sample size. Whereas if you had a team with an expensive veteran pen when guys suck like Howry in 08 or Heilman last year you have to keep them on the roster but never use them or hide them on the DL. Using the young arm approach you keep a steady rotation going so that those who perform are in Chicago and those who do not get to know Des Moines.
Oh, I agree with you on the "young arm" approach...
… rather than spend money on a Heilman, when the kids can give you the same production.
I just don’t think Patton is in the same rank as guys like Berg, Caridad and Cashner.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I dont either
but I would be a shinny penny that one of or two of those 3 will flame out and need to be sent down. Thats when guys like Patton have value. You call them up and hope they have a nice 30-40 IP run.
As I said...
… I don’t disagree with the approach, just the individual we are discussing.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
yeah
it will be fun to see some of the young arms. Plus Jim can always wait and get a veteran on the cheap coming off surgery type if he wants some experience or leadership. Just not Chad Fox plz
The Kerry Wood Effect
In 1998, Woody started the season in AAA. Another team’s coach facetiously stated that the Cubs would win the World Series if they had 5 better pitchers than Woody.
by RiskyBusiness on Dec 27, 2009 7:06 PM CST up reply actions
That was Terry Collins...
… who was managing the Angels at the time.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
He's got a good 2 pitch arsenal when he's on
He just needs a bit more consistency. He could become a Michael Wuertz type, but the thing with Rule 5 picks is, there’s usually a reason why they are available. The special find is the exception. I imagine they took him thinking that they might hit a diamond in the rough, but when they realized he wasn’t ready, but liked his stuff, they figured they’d stash him away until they could get away with it.
The Cubs probably have a few better arms. Blake Parker is probably a similar, but better, version of Patton. Keep in mind where things were last year, though. A lot of the arms we are discussing had yet to reach a point where there was enough expectation they could step into a pen. Justin Berg was a failed starter with 1 pitch. Esmailin Caridad was a strike throwing, average velo starter. Blake Parker was in the lower levels.
But isn't that sometimes where the best relievers come from?
Failed starters? John Wetteland was a hot prospect Dodger starter — but only became successful when moved to the bullpen. He’s just one example.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
yes
my point is, though, from the Cubs perspective, with so much uncertainty, why not pluck an arm last year and see if you get lucky? I really didn’t have a problem with anything that happened with Patton last year. There were good enough reports to justify plucking him, and I’d rather take a gamble on that then with some FA middle reliever. There weren’t enough other arms at the start of the year to really say, no, using Patton on the 40 man isn’t worth it if they believed in the stuff. It wasn’t the diamond in the rough find, and if Patton doesn’t show more consistency, he’ll be pushed off the 40 man soon enough, but relative to what happened in 2009, I’m okay with that. It, imo, didn’t really impact all that much on the 2009 season.
I simply didn't think...
… Patton showed that much in spring training to keep him.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Unless we are going to spend the big money on a Valverde type
Many of our internal options seem better than what is out there.
If Shark can get it back to 2008 form he would be a nice addition. The league seems to have figured him out, so hopefully he has added something new. I agree the starting for him should stop.
Caridad did a nice job last year and unless he totally craters in spring training, he deserves a shot.
Berg also was good, I wish he would have got to pitch more, but I guess Heilman had to get more innings in.
Gaub is someone to watch. It would be nice for him to come through so at least we have something from the DeRosa trade. From what I hear he is the best from the 3 we got for him.
If Marshall isn;t used as trade bait he deserves a shot to be somewhere on the Cubs. I thought he looked pretty good in the pen. It would be nice if he was left out there longer and not used as a loogy. He has been a starter and can actually get righties out. Lou didn’t seem to know how to use him.
Maybe Patton will surprise us, but I think a full year at AAA would be good for him.
Carmen mentions Silva. I don’t think he is high on too many lists. If he comes in and pitches well I am sure he will be given every chance possible given his contract. If not I see a place on the DL waiting for him. He hs already served his purpose. Getting production would be icing on the cake.
So to answer Al’s question. I say for now, Caridad, Berg, and either Shark or Marshall depending on Marshall either starting or being traded.
by TJ11 on Dec 26, 2009 8:55 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
I must say
that I agree with Al on this one. Patton has shown nothing, and Sharky-boy needs to be a reliever until he develops another pitch or two. With Heilman out of the way, let’s give Berg and Gaub both a shot in the spring and see what develops. Use the money for a center fielder!!
by cubfaninplattsburgh on Dec 26, 2009 9:19 AM CST reply actions
Caridad has impressed on every level. I hope he gets a long look.
Numbers may not lie, but they don’t tell the whole truth (and nothing but the truth), either. -- Doug Glanville
I saw Caridad
pitch in Colorado in one of his first outings for us, after the Rockies went up big. He does have a live arm and doesn’t seem to get rattled easily.
by cubfaninplattsburgh on Dec 26, 2009 9:39 AM CST reply actions
Mediocrity
All of the aforementioned are indeed mediocre and in all likelihood, given more of an opportunity on this particular club, will perform much worse. Keep in mind here, I’m not suggesting the signing of a free agent mediocre arm, a tick below what Capps actually is. But rather, am recognizing that pitching for Piniella as a younger, inexperienced pitcher in a situation where tensions and expectations are high, is usually a recipe for disaster. Pitching in Pittsburgh and Washington where very few people care or expect success is one thing. Pitching in Chicago in a season that is setting up to be rather turbulent and stressful is difficult to say the least.
I’m guessing that all things considered more of the arms mentioned above will fail rather than succeed under those circumstances…hence Hendry’s likely idea to find a veteran that has had at least a modicum of success in a bullpen role.
As an aside, I think the starting rotation is a much greater concern at this point no matter who you are going to “pencil” in here in December. And lastly, any mention of Carlos Silva pitching meaningful innings at any time, in any role in Chicago is speculative at the very, very best.
Who needs a stinkin' tag line? What are they for anyway?
Wouldn't the last bullpen spot
go to the rotation loser of Marshall/Grozelanny? I would assume in this case, Samardzija goes down. Of course if Lilly isn’t ready, I guess you put them both in the rotation.
Looking at the schedule...
…it looks like we can get pretty far with a four man rotation. Missing Lilly for the first month (god willing) is not that big of a hit.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
In your scenario
All I’m pointing out is that not all of the rotation candidates who don’t make it are not going to be sent down.
Since you are generally negative about everything Cub-related...
… I’ll take your comments as confirmation of my idea.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Come on Al
You’re better than that. I’ve certainly been negative in the past…and unless you’re living in a box, it’s pretty easy to see why. This current team isn’t very good….wasn’t very good a year ago no matter what injuries you want to use as an excuse…and up to now has not been improved even slightly for 2010. I believe I’m entitled to a negative opinion as a result.
More importantly, this is a forum to exchange ideas both positive and negative. If you want to turn it into a global Cubs fans hug and kiss zone, I’m respectfully bail.
Who needs a stinkin' tag line? What are they for anyway?
by krummy12 on Dec 26, 2009 6:46 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
That's not what I'm saying.
This site is open to all kinds of ideas. I just don’t ever see any forms of optimism from you at all.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
You have to admit
After last season’s offseason moves, which were almost univerally panned by Cubs fans and baseball experts (DeRosa, Wood, Bradley, Miles, Marquis for Vizcaino, etc.) and which turned over 40% of a 97 win team (and the best team in the NL record-wise), most Cubs fans were upset. Throughout the course of the season, it just got worse.
At around the trade deadline, we could have gone back to get DeRosa but we allowed the Cardinals to get him instead while playing people like Blanco at 2B, Fontenot and Freel at 3B, and Scales in the OF at times throughout the rest of the season. Was that supposed to win a division? We didn’t do anything to make an impact on our team, and players were allowed to play who should have been sitting on the bench. Also, the Bradley distraction was allowed to fester until it was already too late.
Now this offseason, sure, Bradley, Miles, and all of the other mistakes from last year’s offseason are gone (costing us a lot of money and a quality player to get rid of) but there hasn’t been any proactive moves made to make the team any better than last year. Most Cub fans see a lot of holes while reading day after day about the other teams, including the World Champion Yankees, doing what it takes to make their teams better and to win. None of the holes that we started with have been filled. In fact, we have several more now.
Cub fans have all the right in the world to be frustrated. They have the right to boo at the Cubs Convention if they want to as well. Most importantly, they are entitled to their opinion. These fans want to win as much as anyone else, and have a lot of pride in their team.
is this all you do?
Eric Hanna and FAN of the BULLS, the two greatest BCBers in the history of mankind
by jesus christos on Dec 26, 2009 11:55 PM CST up reply actions
Since you brought up Gregg...
…the most frustrating part wasn’t that he blew saves, that happens. But to the trio you mentioned makes me want to puke.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
There is an old expression in baseball: "Sometimes the best deals are the ones you DON'T make."
Need we look to a certain signing of a recent and now former Cubs RFer to confirm that this expression is indeed, true from time to time?
I say let the rest of the off season shake out. Let Hendry keep working the phones. Let’s see who we go INTO Spring Training with and then, what kind of team we come OUT of ST with before pronouncing the 2010 season a disaster in the making.
There could be a few surprises on the roster before Opening Day, and if we get some rebound years from players who performed, well, “so-so” (is a kind term I guess) in 2009, then who know what 2010 may hold?
Now only 12,859 on the "Cubs Season Tickets Waiting List"...
by Zeke on Dec 26, 2009 10:35 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Exactly.
Making a deal or signing a free agent just to say “we did something” is exactly the wrong way to do business in baseball.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I don't think we should just do something "just to do something" either, but...
Good GM’s have a way of identifying holes and filling them whether through free agent signings or trades. They should make a tape of the moves made by Brian Cashman this offseason and lock Jim Hendry in a room to watch them (over and over and over again). Sure he’s got a bigger payroll, but his moves show that their team isn’t satisfied with winning this past year and that they want to continue to provide a winning atmosphere for their team and fans.
Seems to me that right now we have the following:
1. A rotation consisting of a potential ace who doesn’t live up to that potential, a hurt #2 starter, a #4 starter being paid like a #1 starter, and about eight #5 starters/long reliever/mop up men.
2. A line-up with no real lead-off man, two legitmately consistent power threats (Lee and Ramirez), several strikeout machines and a few automatic outs (besides the pitcher). Besides that, two of our main starters are injury prone.
3. A bench made up of several AAA players, a few of which can play defense but none of which can hit. We also are missing a few bench spots.
4. A bullpen consisting of a closer who has tremendous stuff but walks too many people, a “set-up man” who is decent but gets hurt a lot, an overpaid left handed “specialist”, a reliever who will probably be in AAA by the middle of the year (Hendry mentioned that he still has options when he traded for him) and three holes that will be filled with inexperienced AAA players or one of the forementioned long reliever/mop-up men types.
Sure, we got rid of Bradley, which will eliminate a huge distraction, and we won’t have to watch Miles ground out to second base anymore, but this is the first season in a long time that many Cubs fans already know that we don’t have a chance at making the postseason, nonetheless compete with any of the real teams. They’re going to need something special at this year’s Cubs Convention if they want to motivate some fans that feel pretty let down by the inactivity this offseason towards improving this team.
by TheGrinch13 on Dec 26, 2009 4:37 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
re: 1 and 3
1. Who is the #4 starter being paid like a #1 starter? If you are referring to Dempster, he has been excellent the last two years. His 2009 wasn’t as good as his 2008 … but he was still a top pitcher, a very good #2, and a guy that, on some staffs, would be their #1. Add in the clubhouse component he brings. He may very well be overpaid the last 2 years of the deal, but there isn’t enough to suggest that there will be a fall off that dramatic as of now, and if he’s still considered a clubhouse leader, I’d be more than fine with a slight overpay. He has been well worth his salary in 2008 and 2009, and his performance has been very good relative to the overall AAV of the deal so far.
3. The bench isn’t that bad. All it’s missing is a big bat. It has
a) The defensive outfield replacement (Sam Fuld)
b) The pinch runner (Sam Fuld)
c) The defensive middle infield backup (Andres Blanco)
d) Solid veteran backup catcher (Koyie Hill)
e) A versatile option (Jeff Baker – while he may start, he has to, in a way, be factored in when discussing the bench, as it’s his versatility that will impact the bench)
I don’t know which team has a great bench in the majors, but the Cubs bench has a shot to be decent if they add a big bat to the mix. Ideally, as I’ve noted, I’d dump Fontenot and Blanco from the 25 man, find a lefty middle infielder that can backup both spots (do you really need a superb defensive backup if Lou won’t utilize said player to replace Theriot late in games?). This would allow more flexibility and allow for 2 potential bat additions. That said, as is, if they add a big bat to the mix, that’s a decent bench.
They had a big bat.
His name was Jake Fox. For some reason, there are some “fans” here that are excited that he is gone and that we got nothing in return for him.
If they wanted to trade him, couldn’t they have tried to package him with some other players for someone like Ryan Sweeney? Then at least we would have filled a hole (in CF) while leaving a gaping hole in the bench instead of leaving two gaping holes.
In regards to your comment about our bench being “that bad”. You’re saying that our bench consists of Jeff Baker (who will start at 2B and won’t be on the bench, where he probably is more suited as a super-sub), Andres Blanco (all defense, no hitting), Koyie Hill (ditto), and Sam Fuld (scrappy, great defense, but won’t hit a game winning home run for you off the bench). Did I miss anyone?
Hey, the Yankees are supposedly talking to Reed Johnson. The great teams never settle for what they have or what they have accomplished. At least they see his value.
No one is "excited" that Jake Fox is gone.
However, neither do they think he’s the second coming of Babe Ruth, as you apparently do.
The Cubs got a useful middle reliever — Jeff Gray — and gave up a guy who might become a decent DH in the American League.
The Cubs are also talking to Reed Johnson. I’d like to see him return.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I would too.
By the way, I never said he was Babe Ruth. I said he was a quality player for our team who should have been played more down the stretch than he was. I also said that if we traded him we should have traded him in a package aimed at getting more in return, such as for someone like Sweeney. That would have actually made sense.
by TheGrinch13 on Dec 26, 2009 10:00 PM CST up reply actions
RYAN SWEENEY!?!?
BAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!
If any GM on earth would trade Ryan Sweeney for Jake Fox they deserve to be shot. Sweeney was a + 4 WAR player last year. And you know why? BECAUSE HE CAN PLAY DEFENSE! Something Jake Fox can’t do.
Jake Fox might have officially overtaken Sam Fuld and Mark DeRosa for the most overrated Cub of the last few years. Amazing.
by CalCalender on Dec 26, 2009 10:32 PM CST up reply actions
Read the post again
It says “we should have traded him in a package”…it never said to trade them for each other straight up.
I wouldn’t call him overrated…he was more productive for our team than most of the roster but found himself sitting out most of the season, sometimes not batting for five days at a time. There is simply no excuse for that if you want to win, especially with what was played over him.
In half the at bats, he managed to put up better stats than Milton Bradley—at 1/16 of the salary.
My point was, that we could have gotten more for him. Getting rid of him just to try and erase someone else’s mistake was flat out dumb.
by TheGrinch13 on Dec 26, 2009 11:02 PM CST up reply actions
As noted below
I think we got a very solid return and I would’ve been fine with that trade even if we didn’t get rid of Aaron Miles 1.7 million. Again, too much emphasis is placed on a big bat off the bench. If this team struggles in 2010, I’m pretty confident that it’ll be due to more than simply lacking a big bench bat (and that is assuming we don’t address it, which I anticipate that we will).
And, further...
… Jake Fox was not good off the bench. He was a poor pinch-hitter. Bobby Scales was better.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Scales did do better
But you have to admit that it helps when you play almost every day. There were many times down the stretch where Fox sat for upwards to five days without even pinch hitting. Think about it, sitting around for almost a week without batting and then you have to get up there and get the big hit. Did you even consider that?
by TheGrinch13 on Dec 27, 2009 10:50 AM CST up reply actions
Scales played even less than Fox...
… and did better off the bench. The two skills are not comparable.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I think you're living in a dream world.
by TheGrinch13 on Dec 27, 2009 10:49 AM CST up reply actions
I think you have an unrealistic vision of who Jake Fox is.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Maybe this will help.
2009 Total Statistics
Bradley – .257BA, .775OPS, 12HR, 40RBI
Fox – .259BA, .779OPS, 11HR, 44RBI
Scales – .242BA, .723OPS, 3HR, 12RBI
Fox (June, July, and September):
June (46AB in 17 games/11 starts; 2.7AB/game): .304 AVG, .861 OPS, 2 HR, 10 RBI
July (50AB in 19 games/11 starts; 2.6 AB/game): .300 AVG, .999 OPS, 5 HR, 15 RBI
September (41 AB in 18 games/10 starts; 2.2 AB game): .195 AVG, .543 OPS, 1 HR, 4 RBI
*out of 29 September Cubs games, Fox did not even make a plate appearance in 13 of those games (45%).
Scales (September):
September (61 AB in 22 games/16 starts, 2.8 AB/game): .246BA, .676 OPS, 0 HR, 8 RBI
*out of 24 Cubs games that Scales was present for, he did not make a plate appearance in only 2 of them (8%).
As you can see above, Scales started in six more games than Fox did in September when the Cubs were only 6 games behind the Cardinals. He also had 20 more at bats. For a rookie, at bats are very crucial not only to pinch-hitting skills but to stats as a hole.
Also, as you can see, when they gave Fox a regular job earlier in the season he did very well. For some reason, his at bats and starts were taken away for no apparent reason. The same thing happened to Hoffpauir, who started with a .270 BA in April and increasingly received fewer and fewer at bats. Thus, his performance, which was good last year, went down the tubes.
I never said that Fox was Babe Ruth (for the 18th time). It is just apparent that there are some people on this board that are glad to see guys like him, DeRosa, and Wood go, and for what? I’m sorry, but there is no legitimate argument to why these players were dealt, as their departure did nothing but make this team worse. If you’re going to trade away quality players or kick quality players to the curb, get something quality in return or find quality players to replace them.
Scales was a better pinch-hitter this year. That is because he GOT LOTS MORE AT BATS AND PLAYING TIME. And is he ever going to hit a game winning 3 run home run for you? Maybe if he’s lucky. Just the presence of Fox on our bench kept opposing managers thinking about possible countermoves. Do you really think that they were thinking “Well, let’s see, what should I do if they send Scales up there?”
Those of you who actually think that Hendry has made great moves during the past two years can think about that while you are sitting alone in a quiet Wrigley around August 5th with a lot of empty seats and crickets chirping around you. Wake up!!!
I think that's a bit unrealistic
Oakland wasn’t going to move Sweeney. They’ve placed high emphasis on defense in recent years.
I’m bit confused. I said I don’t think the bench is that bad. I didn’t say it was bad – I actually said it was decent.
Again, which role is missing from the bench, outside of a big bat?
As for Jake Fox, I would’ve liked the trade even if we didn’t get rid of Aaron Miles. We got a solid return on a bench bat, filling another hole in the pen. Again, too much emphasis is placed on one or the other. We got a pen arm in Gray, someone as intriguing as most of the secondary pen arms on the market this year and gave up a guy who would’ve filled a big bat off the bench role. I don’t see the big problem, particularly since we added a decent upper level positional asset and a very intriguing young arm inRonny Morla.
the problem
is that the Cubs aren’t good enough to contend without making a move.
We don't know that yet.
What move(s) would you make?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
yes we do.
there isn’t a projection system out there that puts this team above 85 wins.
I would remind Mr Ricketts that he promised to run this team like the Red Sox. The Red Sox spend money every single year. They go after premier players every single year. I would remind Mr Ricketts that his 140 million payroll limit is self imposed and non binding. The Cubs make a ton of cash and if he thinks he is going to win over fans by doing nothing in his first off season he is crazy. We should be talking about chasing Matt Holliday not Matt Capps.
If the guy is serious about winning he needs to take a look at what the Phillies are doing and do his best to keep up. So far that aint happening.
While I think you and I are closer in mindset than not on most issues...
I think you’re misrepresenting how organizations like the Red Sox work. They don’t spend money for the sake of spending money and the appearance of being in it to win. And they don’t just ape their competition in a spending race.
They spend money in the areas that they need to improve on assets that will provide a needed result. Teams like the Red Sox pride themselves on more accurately evaluating players and their needs, to increase their efficiency in meeting goals.
In the abstract, team spending is dicated by two things: 1) Your needs, and 2) The available assets in the market to meet those needs. You don’t simply add money to your payroll irrespective of how useful it actually is, merely for the appearance of looking like you have a plan or mission. Which gets us to the Cubs.
If there aren’t any assets on the market that meet the needs of the team, then nothing is gained by spending money just so we look like we’re the Red Sox or Yankees or Phillies or whoever.
So to take your example: What exactly would pursuing Matt Holliday accomplish? Where are we going to play him? And to what end? As far as I’m concerned, I’m glad the Cubs aren’t pursuing Holliday—a player we have no use for given our current constraints in big contracts. To my mind, I would even have preferred if we didn’t even pursue Matt Capps, who offers performance at a level that can be purchased for lower prices elsewhere.
All in all, sometimes the smarter thing is to not spend money, regardless of what other teams are doing. Baseball games are not won by PR campaigns that show the owner really cares. At least the way you seem to be arguing here, it seems like you’re missing that nuance.
by CubsWin!Oregon on Dec 26, 2009 6:49 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
And
I could care less about PR. It’s about improving the team. If I had any reason to believe the Cubs were the best team in the NL or even their division by doing nothing then I wouldnt mind. But we aren’t. We need to make moves to contend.
I should note...
that I’m not advocating the Cubs doing nothing more this offseason. I think it’s still possible for us to make moves that will improve the team. But it’s also possible that in the absence of other options, you sit tight until more options appear.
Mostly what I object to is a reactionary approach to GM’ing where you look at what other teams do as a reference for what you yourself should be doing. “Me-too-ism” sort of speak. That type of approach gets you contracts like Barry Zito to the Giants.
by CubsWin!Oregon on Dec 26, 2009 6:53 PM CST up reply actions
A few things
What constraints in big contacts? We are the Chicago fucking Cubs we are a large market team. Large market teams have players with big contracts.
Matt Holliday could play RF and be a 4 WAR + player. That is the exact kind of move you need to make this offseason if you want to contend with StL who has the best player in baseball on offense and two legit Cy Young pitches to head their rotation. We have every use for Matt Holliday because we have every use for very talented baseball players.
The problem is that there are already too many big contracts...
… that we are saddled with. The new ownership doesn’t have unlimited funds right now, due to the huge debt they took on to buy the team.
I believe that a recovery to career norm levels by Soriano and Ramirez, plus a comeback from Soto, would help the offense just as much as spending umpty-million dollars on Matt Holliday just to say they did so.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
sure it would
but can you really call hoping for 3 guys to comeback a great plan for contending?
And again WHY are we all so certain this team has “too many big contracts” . Because Tom Ricketts says so? Because Carrie Muskat says so? None of us know the teams bottom line but the Cubs are a cash cow. This team has several big contracts coming off the books next year. Why not tell Tom R that a Matt Holliday deal this year wont be nearly as big of a deal next off season when we have room .Make a 1 year temporary expansion of the payroll because
A- this team is a veteran team and has a small window
B- If we don’t we arent going anywhere next season.
I don't have any more information about the dollars than you do.
If they’re going to make a splash with a free agent, why not let the Cardinals pay a bazillion dollars to Holliday and then outbid them for Pujols next off-season?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
well if i
was sure that was gonna happen then hell yeah.
See, this is what I'd think about as a "bold move"...
… rather than just doing something to say they did.
Or why not, as I mentioned in another thread, go after Matt Kemp via trade?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
well Holliday
would be a bold move- and not one just to say they did-
but yeah any move that improves the team is something I am on board with. My beef is that up till now NOTHING has been done to improve the 2010 Cubs.
That would be fine...
if they didn’t need improvement. But they do. This is a .500 ballclub as currently constructed. At this point, they’re banking on a number of things ALL happening that aren’t expected:
Soriano returning to pre-injury form
Marmol finding the strike zone
Soto returning to ROY-form
Those things would turn the Cubs into a club expected to win 86 games or so. They’d still need something else unexpected (Zambrano to turn into a Cy Young candidate) to challenge for a playoff spot.
by shawndgoldman on Dec 27, 2009 9:55 AM CST up reply actions
You're forgetting...
… getting a full season out of Aramis Ramirez.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Well...
We have more contracts that dish out over $10mil per year than any other team save the Yankees. So clearly we are operating like a big-market team.
As for your idea about putting Holliday in RF. I’m not necessarily opposed to it. Holliday has never played RF as far as I know, and RF in Wrigley is harder than most, but I assume that his more or less plus-defense would probably roughly translate over. Doing so would mitigate any of Fukudome’s defensive value and leave us with his very poor CF defense, but I suppose the argument would be tha the added offensive value outweighs the defensive shortcomings, and anyway we could bring in defensive substitutions later perhaps?
Given that, it’s possible that Holliday in RF would be a good idea and one I could support. Al mentioned below what would be my one caveat: teams need to think long-term and about what other potential options might be out there in future years. Locking our money down now might not be the best idea, even if we’re shedding contract obligations elsewhere moving forward. At this point, I’m ambivalent about Holliday. I would take him, but there are other players becoming free-agents next year whom I’d rather have. (Though I have the aphorism about “a bird in the hand” buzzing in my ear).
Anyway, whether Holliday is a good idea or not, I stand by my larger point about reactionary General Managing.
by CubsWin!Oregon on Dec 26, 2009 7:56 PM CST up reply actions
How about sign/trade for a CF?
i know, banging the same drum again. And I am very open to the “trade” option – Byrd really looks like the best current FA option, and he is OK/not great.
Regarding bullpen, I would like to see how the current options look in ST before getting all panicky.
rec'd
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Caridad better be in the bullpen.
Berg should be there too. Honestly if Caridad and Berg are in the pen with the other guys we have I think the bullpen will be one of our strengths this year. That’s right, a strength. I think we have more important concerns like who is the 5th starter and will they suck? Also that whole outfield we have that is terrible. We should do something about that. Honestly we get rid of Bradley and everyone is happy (and he was a cancer), but did that really distract everyone from the fact that Fukudome is our CF/RF and he is terrible.
by Uncle Stanley McGoober on Dec 26, 2009 10:37 AM CST reply actions
i agree
in house. i believe we have guys that can do the job. caridad looked really good setting up for marmol. if the team cant or wont spend money then we need to look in house. does not look like ricketts wants to start throwing money around anytime soon. i believe he wants to go the boston way and start developing our own players.
I think most bullpens
in the majors go through this. Trying to find arms, mix and match and the like.
If Caridad and Berg have good springs they should make the club leaving Mesa.
I know I will get killed on this but here we go. I know the guy has baggage. He had the one incident with his wife, but what about Brett Myers? I would take a flyer if the money is right. Interesting to see what he will go for. But I am sure the Cubs will stay away because of the off field incident.
Agreed
We have the options in the bullpen and time to sort them out with many viable candidates. I would rather put the money into the gaping hole of center field.
This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).
Kiko Calero is still available, isn't he?
The Cubs should give him serious consideration. He’s a very good pitcher.
Calero did have a good year in 2009.
But he’ll be 35 in January, and probably command more dollars than he’s worth.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
More than just a good year in 09...
Aside from a bad 2007, Calero has been very good, and very consistent, since entering the league in ’03.
And he only made 500K last year. I can’t imagine him getting anything crazy this offseason. At most, he’d get a Grabow type of deal. And Calero is a much, much better pitcher than Grabow is.
Overall
I agree with Al. I think the best way to handle the bullpen is to have young guys from your own org fill the roles rather than pay out big bucks for veterans. Reason being? RP are prone to wildly varying season from year to year due in part to the fact that they only pitch 60 or so innings a season. In the kind of sample size even guys like Joe Borowski can put in a great year or two. The only time I would spend money on a FA RP is to get a guy with a long track record of success or a premier closer if you didnt have your own shut down arm in the pen.
One name Al forgot to include that I think could be the best pen arm of them all was Andrew Cashner. The Cubs are trying to make him a starter and last year was very encouraging but Cashner has the stuff be in the bigs right now. I could see him or even Chris Carpenter getting a look in the bullpen this year.
Still a very well thought out approach Al and one I hope the team sticks to. The only question is will we spend ANY money on ANYBODY this offseason?
by CalCalender on Dec 26, 2009 12:50 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I did forget about Cashner.
Yet another reason to fill holes in-house.
My question to your question is, do we NEED to spend money? Is there anyone out there who will both fill a need and be worth the dollars? Or maybe that money could be saved for midseason, or even 2011.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
If we want to serioulsy contend
then yeah we need to upgrade. I know WAR isn’t your end all stat but all the major projections show StL above us next year. As it stand the Cubs are a 82-84 win team and that isnt gonna cut it. I need to see the new ownership make a serious effort to show us they are serious about running the Cubs like a top notch franchise. So far there has been nothing to cheer for or even get the slightest bit excited about.
What do you mean...
as it stands the Cubs are an 82-84 win team? Is that what you’re projecting them to win, or is that what some stat says? If the latter, isn’t it a bit early to even be looking at that stat considering we don’t have a center fielder?
well stats
are used to base the projection systems on. You can see the projections from Bill James, CHONE or use WAR and get a team’s projected wins.
FWIW- 82-84 wins was based on the Cubs using Byrd in CF. If they use Pods or Ankiel expect that # to decrease by a win or two.
For more info on WAR as it relates to the Cubs, see this article
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2009/11/17/1160906/building-a-spreadsheet-champion
Basically, given past performance and projections for next year, how many wins can you expect from the Cubs given average seasons overall and average amounts of injury time. Obviously for some teams you can exceed (2008) or fall short (2009) of those averages, so nobody is claiming we’re fixed at an 80-82 win season.
However, given that we have a tight budget and that few players are worth more than a couple of wins, its not too early to project this kind of thing.
Let me ask you a question...
with all sincerity, what’s the point of citing these projections if they’ve been wrong the last two years?
because
they are more accurate than anything else we have. in fact they were dead on this year with the phils
But yet...
with the team that you and I both love and follow, they were way off the last two years, right? So, again, what’s the point?
2 off years doesn't mean the projections are totally wrong
But it should give you an idea of relatively how good a team is assuming things stay around the status quo. Last year’s team was projected around 92 wins if I remember right, and given the injuries to Ramirez and the fact that we had a hobbled Soriano most of the year, the projections were wrong but not insanely far off.
The 2008 squad was projected at 92, in first place. We exceeded that thanks to unexpected production from guys like Soto and Edmonds. I wouldn’t say it was far off then either.
The 2007 squad was projected to have 84 wins, in second place. Turns out we had 85 and nobody in our division was better.
Obviously, there’s merit to playing the games, and given that most of us were worried about how we’d do in the postseason last October before a single game had been played, it rings particularly true for us. But that doesn’t mean projections are worthless.
All you need to do.....
is look south at how the White Sox handle their young pitchers.
They bring them up and put them in the pen to cut their teeth.
They get a live arm, experience in the show and allow for the big league pitching coach to help them along.
I agree with Al. We do not need to spend money on a reliever. These can come from within.
by timeforachange2009 on Dec 26, 2009 2:26 PM CST up reply actions
An in house
bullpen seems an obvious solution for a team with all our needs and few dollars to fill them. Forget about spring training stats for Caridad and Berg. They deserve to know their place on the roster guaranteed. Forget about Shark until he actually has a good out pitch and a heater that actually moves.
Unless pigs begin flying, we can probably expect Silva to be a 1 month wonder. And i expect either Gorz or Marshall to be traded before April.
Sign Valverde
moving Marmol back to setup and bumping everyone else down a notch would make the bullpen significantly stronger. Or use Marmol in a trade if the right situation arises and we can fill another need.
And now, I’m going to pull a BLou and not stick around to defend my position. I’m off to Smalltownsville, Ohio, for a belated holiday family gathering where I’ll most likely be off the internet grid, without cable tv, and walking uphill both ways. I think they have touchtone phones there, but not sure. See you in a few…
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Have a good trip.
I still don’t think the Cubs need to spend $10m plus on a free-agent closer. The Cubs have done that numerous times, with poor results.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
plus
who wants to watch Valverde’s circus act on the mound all year long?
who cares?
If he gets results, and the Cubs go somewhere next year, his normal goofiness would be acceptable.
I don't think he'll be getting $10M plus contract
If he was going to get that kind of money, he would have already signed by now. I think his price is going to drop, and if it gets around $8M/yr, I hope Hendry scoops him up for 3 yrs. Him and (Good) Marmol would make for quite a two-headed monster in the late innings. If we get lucky with one of the other arms you’ve listed here, think Nasty Boys Redux.
After next year, if Marmol being able to close is more of sure thing than it is now, then I’m sure it’d be easy enough to trade Valverde, esp. at only $16M for 2 yrs. Or keep him and trade Marmol, if he’s more attractive to other teams and would bring back more value for us.
btw, you don’t seriously think Valverde is another Dave Smith, do you? ;-)
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Honesty compels me to say,
I’m sick and tired of getting burned by free agents………..End of story.
Hey Lou, we're long overdue.
The pen
I’m not comfortable with the three G’s handling the setup duties, but unless a pen arm is relatively cheap (and I don’t rule out that Kiko Calero might not get more than 2 mil … which I’d be interested in), I don’t really see the point of adding another guy. As for the rest of the pen, I’ve long argued that no team should ever sign middle relievers unless it is for the minimum. I’m just against that. Every organization should have middle relief arms of some sort. Thus, I would be perfectly happy going with a pen full of internal options.
At this early juncture, the indications seem to suggest that Marshall, while likely to get a look at the rotation, is probably going back to the pen. If so, I’d keep Gaub down in AAA and utilize Marshall as a 2nd lefty/long man. While I’ve argued that Gaub has plus-LOOGY ability (able to deal with rh’s a bit … marc hulet has argued that he could be a setup man – numbers wise, I agree with Hulet, stuff wise, I’m not sure), there’s no point to keep him as a 3rd lefty that gets minimal time at the start of the year if Marshall is going to be in the pen.
I’d rather see Silva in the pen, but I think Al is probably correct and that Silva will be given a chance to fail first. I’d guess that the loser of Gorzelanny/Samardzija also heads to AAA (ideally, we’d add another arm to the mix to compete, but working off what we have right now). I imagine Caridad will get one slot … unless we sign someone, which might push him back to Iowa to keep his arm stretched out. That said, Caridad throws strikes, which makes any manager happier. He got a bit overhyped off AFL last fall, as people saw the velo from short stints and assumed he could hold it as a starter, but he could be a quality pen arm with some borderline setup potential. Berg probably gets the other spot, and while I’m okay with that (both Berg/Caridad, as former starters, could also probably be asked to shoulder some extended innings if called upon), I’m a bit concerned that Berg may be more a situational righty. We need more data to really know, but even though pen arms can survive off a limited arsenal, he really goes to the sinker the way that Wuertz went to the slider. Sure, he has a great sinker, a true power sinker, and he could be called upon when you need a dp. But that’s a very limited use for a guy.
At some point this season, I think Blake Parker will take a slot in the pen. His stuff is solid enough and he has a good approach, despite the walks. He’s got borderline setup stuff, but with the addition of Gray, I think they keep Parker in Iowa as the closer to start. I know there’s going to be a lot of clamoring for Cashner, but I imagine that won’t happen until midseason at best. The Cubs are going to try this starting experiment as long as possible. Samardzija might make a solid pen arm if they committed to that. Chris Carpenter and Jay Jackson are both watching, as both, if they struggle as starters, could be late inning pen arms. Scott Maine, from the Heilman trade, could figure into the lefty mix this year if the need arises. There’s other arms. Greg Reinhard might be an overachiever of sorts that finds a role.
Short of it is, there’s more than enough options for the future, and more than enough options for the present. Outside of an occasional signing, our pen should be built from internal options as much as possible.
forgot about Parisi
off the current roster, I’d guess
Starters: Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Wells, Gorzelanny
Bullpen: Carlos Marmol, Angel Guzman, John Grabow, Jeff Gray, Sean Marshall, Mike Parisi, Carlos Silva
While Lilly is out, I’d guess Silva in the rotation, giving him the chance to fail (though I’d rather see someone else). I’d guess Berg and Caridad would have a chance to fight it out for the last spot while Lilly is out. My preference is to use Berg in that situation, despite my lukewarm comments earlier. I prefer Berg because I prefer to keep Caridad stretched out in Iowa in that scenario.
I do think Parisi will stick. He’s got enough of an arsenal to fill a critical long man role, allowing Lou, if he wants, to play more matchups with Sean Marshall’s usage. Also, for all the talk about Angel Guzman setting up, it wouldn’t surrpsie me in the least if Jeff Gray was the man for that job.
Well thought out and correct...
There is no point in signing mediocre free agent middle relievers for a boatload of money. Been down that road before, failed miserably. The Cubs have talented young arms in the system. Are they all going to work out? Probably not. But the teams who have the most success (not named the Yankees) generally build from within, particularly in the bullpen.
I think I speak for everyone here when I say, "Wait, what the hell are you talking about?"
I'm in Al's camp in preferring to use our existing arms
To the posters in this thread who feel that this list of internal candidates reeks of mediocrity I say “this is the mid/back of the bullpen, it is in some ways supposed to be mediocre.” Every man on the pitching staff can’t be closer quality, and frankly the prospect of paying millions for supposedly elite setup men is not that enticing. The Nationals might have their man with Capps, or they might have spent dearly for a 5+ ERA guy who might end up worse than the guy they let go (McDougal) who actually did a decent job for the Nats last year.
Kind of the same argument with expecting our #5 starter to be ace quality. I think of the guys available to fill the 3 slots there is enough talent – the trick of course is seeing if 3 of them step up in Spring Training and then picking the right three if in fact their Spring performance is muddled. That latter scenario is probably most likely – 5 or 6 guys who do pretty well and then Cubs brass have to make tough choices.
I am less excited about Marmol/Grabow/Guzman component than many here. Guzman was not the same pitcher once he came back from the injury and gave up a lot of HRs. Grabow did not finish especially sharp either and Marmol is a complete question mark. But more than that, the Cubs – even during non-playoff seasons – play a lot of close games and if the rest of the bullpen doesn’t step up Pinella is going to once again feel compelled to ride these 3 guys for serious innings.
I'll put this here seeing as how there's nowhere else to put it, and it relates...
Has anyone heard what sort of money Ben Sheets is looking for? And what sort of years? I assume he’s looking at a min of a two year deal?
I’d like him as a risk-signing with strong upside for the Cubs rotation, though like most people, I wouldn’t sink a lot of money into him without a clear indication of his health/return to ability.
(As for the topic of this thread, I’m in the boat with everyone who thinks it’s a waste to sign FA middle relievers).
there was early talk
that sheets was seeking, i think, 2 years at 12 mil a year. I think he’s come down a tad, but the expectations would be something around there.
That was the claim
good luck with that Ben.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Dec 26, 2009 10:53 PM CST up reply actions
Geesh.
Yeah, $12mil seems a bit optimistic on he and his agent’s part.
by CubsWin!Oregon on Dec 26, 2009 11:22 PM CST up reply actions
If he keeps asking for that much...
… he’ll still be begging for a job when spring training starts.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Does Gordz have options?
Can he be sent to AAA? He seems to have been up and down quite a few times.. anyone know the answer?
I tend to agree with Al here
Spending money on relief pitching is such a gamble, and tested relievers usually only pan out for part of their long-term contracts (see: Howry, Bob) — if they pan out at all (see: Heilman, Aaron). That said, I wouldn’t mind Calero for a year.
But I’d much rather see the Cubs upgrade at second and in center. The organization has been much deeper when it comes to young arms (Marmol, Guzman, Shark ‘08, Marshall) than young bats. If we’re going to depend on call ups, I’d rather have them be pitchers.
2010 is a trainwreck in the making, so might as well go in-house for bullpen options
2010 shall be a season where Cub fans wait patiently for the offseason, when presumably Jim Hendry and Lou Piniella will be gone as part of Tom Ricketts FINALLY implementing his strategy for the baseball operation.
When the Cubs are rumored not to be able to afford Reed Johnson then that tells you all you need to know about this offseason and how 2010 will likely pan out.
Go with the internal options…Stevens, Gaub, Berg, etc. Give Ryne Sandberg a leg up on piecing together his bullpen for 2011.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
I have seen no evidence the Cubs have said they can't "afford" Reed Johnson.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
If it isn't clear by now that Hendry is a lameduck and with strict salary instructions established from on high then I don't know what to say
Cubs aren’t going to do a danged thing this offseason other than re-signing Grabow, dumping Bradley and finding a serviceable option or two for the outfield. Cheap option or two. Seems very clear to me that Ricketts is willing to let this thing roll for one season as is. Then do what he is going to do in terms of strategic overhaul.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
If it isn’t clear by now that Hendry is a lameduck and with strict salary instructions established from on high then I don’t know what to say
And yet, you keep talking.
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Dec 26, 2009 7:51 PM CST up reply actions
We do have the money for him- if we don't go for a bullpen arm that clearly we don't need,
The young arms in the organization are lively and deserves a chance to show what they have. The reason why Hendry wants a veteran arm is to help these kids out. Get Johnson, platoon him out with Fuld, and if nothing, trade for a CF, make a LOGICAL splash (something irrelevant to Hendry once in a while) and get this done with!
Please win one before I leave this place. Thank you.
And "afford" is different from "not pay more than he is worth"
At $2-3M, Johnson provides reasonable value; if the Yankees are hot to pay him $4-5M there are other choices.
Well, they certainly don't seem to be trying hard to get him.
Check back on him next year, when Joe Girardi, a good manager, slots him in during the late innings in place of Granderson against a tough lefty.
is this before
or after he pulls his back and is on the DL for 60 days?
Reed Johnson is a great guy, and a good player, but why is overpaying for him good, but other players bad?
Forget all that other stuff. I gotta believe.
by drewishdrewid on Dec 26, 2009 11:29 PM CST up reply actions
Hey, look everybody! Chicken Little is here!
Thank god, you showed up. A day without you is like a day without getting stuck in traffic.
I think I speak for everyone here when I say, "Wait, what the hell are you talking about?"
Its my B-Day today...
All I wanted was for my beloved Cubbies to make a splash today! Guess its gonna a frustrating B-Day!
I would sleep with Blou if it meant the Cubs would win a WS. by Doggie Stalker on Aug 22, 2009 4:11 PM EDT
You expected them to make a splash on the Saturday after Christmas?
Seriously?
Happy BIrthday, anyway.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
It's my B-Day
I can hope for anything I want lmao! No not really but didn’t stop me for hoping like hell they did!
I would sleep with Blou if it meant the Cubs would win a WS. by Doggie Stalker on Aug 22, 2009 4:11 PM EDT
HBD, CL22
The “splash” will be trading for a center fielder, not upgrading a staff that has numerous in-house options. We’ll all toast you when this happens. Deal?
Numbers may not lie, but they don’t tell the whole truth (and nothing but the truth), either. -- Doug Glanville
Dang right.....
It’s a deal!
I would sleep with Blou if it meant the Cubs would win a WS. by Doggie Stalker on Aug 22, 2009 4:11 PM EDT
Maybe next year
Under a different general manager and field manager.
by TheGrinch13 on Dec 26, 2009 10:02 PM CST up reply actions
I would hope a few of the youngs guys could step up
But a one year signing of a vet like Calero would ease some of my concerns about Guzman in the 8th.
Traditionally I am against big money to the bullpen, with most relief pitchers being so fickle season to season. If you can’t develop guys that can pitch 60 effective innings, maybe you should be doing something else for a living. But the Cubs 2010 bullpen is relatively inexpensive (kudos to Hendry, anyone????….though sometimes I think they let Gregg close so they wouldn’t have to pay Marmol as much this year), with Grabow’s salary being the highest (right?) Wouldn’t mind a few more bucks thrown at the bullpen if it’s for a year and the price is right.
"I'd rather hit home runs you don't have to run as hard." -- Dave Kingman
by BucknerKongCardenal on Dec 26, 2009 11:55 PM CST reply actions
Sounds sensible to me...
There other weaknesses which need more fixing than the Cubs pitching staff IMHO. CF and (maybe) SS seem to be bigger problems, especially if we see a similar number of injuries in 2010 as we did in 2009.
Well, I never heard it before, but it sounds uncommon nonsense.
- The Mock Turtle, Alice in Wonderland by Lewis Carroll -
by eths on Dec 27, 2009 2:10 AM CST via mobile reply actions
This makes sense.
Spending $$$$ on the bullpen is usually an unwise proposition. They have small sample sizes and high variances in performance from year to year. Thus, you usually end up over-spending on guys that have been performing better than their true talent level, and end up getting bitten by dedicating money and playing time to them based on that.
The one thing I would say is I wish the Cubs had spent some money on some sort of “Marmol insurance.” I can’t trust a guy with his history of control issues to suddenly figure it out and throw the ball over the plate. They couldn’t have predicted Capps’s availability, but I would have preferred NOT signing Grabow and dedicating an extra $1M per year to Capps. Or pooling the money the team was going to spend on Capps and Grabow and using it (and a mediocre prospect) to obtain Rafael Soriano.
By far, Jim Hendry’s biggest weakness is over-spending on relievers. That weakness is shining through this year.
I don't think the money was the issue with Capps.
Capps went to the Nats because he will close there. There’s no way Hendry would have given that assurance to Capps.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I agree that money wasn't *THE* issue...
but I think throwing an extra million may have convinced him. Maybe not.
More importantly, I’d rather have spent the money on Grabow + the money the Cubs were willing to spend on Capps on a more legit late-inning reliever. I agree that the back end of the bullpen should be filled by rookies and in-house candidates. What I’m worried about is the “front end” of the pen, where Marmol (and his control issues) are a disaster waiting to happen.
by shawndgoldman on Dec 27, 2009 11:34 AM CST up reply actions
I've been pushing for Valverde all off-season long but most folks here are pooh-paahing it.
I understand folks don’t want to spend $10-12M/yr for a closer – I’m not so sure I would either. But no one has signed him at yet, and I haven’t heard any solid rumors on him for awhile. So I would think at some point soon, his asking price might drop. And if it gets close to $8M/yr, I would hope Hendry jumps on it.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I also think the team should pencil in...
Gorzelanny as the number 5 starter. He’s had the most major league success of all the options, and has the best projections of all the options by a long shot. He’s the only reason why not offering Harden arbitration comes close to making any kind of sense.
I liked what I saw of Berg
A small sample size to be sure, but he is a big framed guy who has a good command of the strike zone. As much as you can guess on any pitcher he looks like he’ll hold up physically. He seemed to have a good mental make-up too.
Caridad looked good too. I am not just putting an apple on Al’s desk, but I think we have enough in-house options. And, lets face it, the number one thing was to get rid of some of the deadwood.
If Hendry is smart this year he’ll save some money so that if bullpen help is needed he can go out in June or July and add an arm or two. That is the same reason I applaud Al for proposing a Johnson/Fuld CF platoon. We could do much worse, and we need some flexibility.

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