Abreu v. Bradley
by Hawk8 on Feb 10, 2009 7:35 PM CST
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PrintESPN says that Abreu might sign with the Angels for as low as 1yr/$8m. Abreu was supposedly looking for a 3yr/$48M contract (which seems high). Looking at this it seems like the Cubs overpaid for Bradley. Even if Abreu has had some declining numbers he's still a solid player and stays healthy. Maybe we could have gotten Bradley or Abreu for cheap (and without a 3 year contract) if we would have just waited. Crap.
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Tough to say.
Abreu I think is a little more of a known quantity and has not had health issues. He would also be antsy about going hard toward the bricks if he was afraid of the padded wall in the Bronx.
Bradley has higher upside, is younger, and can cover more ground in the outfield. If Bradley stays healthy crosses fingers I would prefer him in the current deal we have with him than Abreu at 1yr, $8m.
It would have been nice if we could have gotten Bradley in a 1 year deal with team or mutual options for the next 2 years. Only time will tell I guess.
From what I'm hearing
Bradley’s third year is only guaranteed if he stays healthy
by Josh Timmers on Feb 10, 2009 7:53 PM CST up reply actions
yea
the third year is a vesting option based on performance from the first two years of the contract.
Not performance, but the number of games played...
… or number of plate appearances, I can’t remember which.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Ability to stay healthy
as opposed to performance i guess. Hopefully if he’s not performing he’s not getting AB’s anyway.
I believe
the yearly breakdown is
2009 7M
2010 10M
2011 13M option year
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
Its actually
09 : $5M
10: $9M
11: $12M (Option year)
He got a $4M signing bonus.
"Ask Dad. He'll know. And on the off chance he doesn't, he'll make up something good"
that was a very smart decision
on the GM’s part
Forgot to mention
that we don’t know what Dunn is gonna sign for yet. The argument could also be Dunn v. Bradley
Clearly
if Abreu signs for 1 year/$8 million, that’s a bargain compared to what we payed for Bradley.
But make no mistake about it. Milton Bradley is the better player. He’s four years younger. His OPS+ last season was 163, compared to Abreu’s 120. Despite playing 34 fewer games, Bradley hit more home runs and drew more walks than Abreu (and only struck out three more times). It’s hard to say about defense because Bradley DH’d last season, but Bradley traditionally has been a very good outfielder whereas Abreu has been bad the past few seasons.
Also, if Abreu could really help a team, why didn’t the Yankees make an effort to keep him? Kind of doubt it was out of payroll concerns.
Dollar for dollar, I would say Abreu was the better deal, if that’s what he signs for. But you don’t win games by spending money the most efficiently. You win them by putting better players on the field.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 10, 2009 7:52 PM CST reply actions 4 recs
well
i think were only paying Bradley 7 million this year. and most of the money is in the optional 3rd year. the contract isn’t that bad.
If we'd waited -
See if we’d waited, Abreu and others might still be holding out for those larger deals. Part of the reason why Abreu is looking for less is because we signed someone. I’m not sure the Cubs could wait for a bargain given how Lou had been very open about what we were in the market for.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Bradley is an OBP machine.
He knows how to get on base. His OBP for his career is .370. His last 6 seasons OBP: .436, .402, .370, .350, .362, .421.
By comparison, in 2008, no Cub regular had a higher OPS and no Cub has a career OBP higher than Bradley. Only Fukudome (of Cub players) had more walks last season than Bradley Bradley’s Fukudome also played 24 more games than Bradley.
Lou Piniella might be the perfect manager for Milton Bradley. Piniella is a veteran, players respect him, and he knows all about playing with fire and passion (sound familiar Rodman/jackson).
I have no problem with Bradley over Abrea (at least at the present time).
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
Overpaying is a Hendry speciality
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
It is a well-known fact that a recession exists...
but could one really have predicted that Dunn and Abreu, among others, would still be unsigned a week before Spring Training? What if JH waited for the prices to fall, only to watch all 3 sign before he threw a contract at one?
Bradley’s contract is not bad by any means, and it includes a playing time clause to protect us from a serious injury. Whining about this is just ridiculous.
Free Ronny Cedeno
Bradley
I heard on the radio when we signed him, that he reportedly had other larger offers, but waited for two months to let Hendry maneuver payroll to offer him the contract he got from us. So had we waited he might not be in Cubbie Blue now.
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
he overpaid for Soriano
and if he couldnt read the tea leaves and see what was coming, in terms of the economy, then he’s a fool-it didnt happen overnight.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad they got Dempster back quickly-but its still a lot for a guy with Dempsters starting record
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Soriano is an albatross on this roster
We’ve learned, very painfully so, that Soriano is notoriously hot and cold and too often does nothing against good pitching. And he is too often a nightmare in the field. To think Hendry gave him $136 million over 8 years. Knowing what we know today, if Soriano was a free agent I would be 100% against signing him. Even to a contract the shape of what Milton Bradley signed for.
Furcal / Beltran
Hendry was “making up” for not signing those two, so he offered the world to Soriano
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
Yes, but he was way over the next closest bids
Which I believe were from PHI and HOU……Beltran was my biggest almost-Cub disappointment of recent years
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Actually, the Angels bid for Soriano...
… and were close on a per year basis, but offered less years.
Yes, Soriano’s contract is going to be a real tough one in a couple of years. If the Cubs can win in the next year or two, I don’t care.
They signed him, not for “making up” for not getting Furcal or Beltran, but to make a statement that they intended to be major players in the FA market, which they had not been up to that time. Soriano was the top free agent in the 2006-07 offseason, and Hendry getting him sent a message.
Did he overpay? Yes. Had Soriano not been hurt the last two years, he’d have gotten production out of him, at least. Perhaps Soriano will be healthy this year.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al Yellon on Feb 11, 2009 9:00 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd
The Cubs had to show fans they intended to win, and were willing to spend to do so.
Is Soriano’s contract an albatross? Yes, but in the winter of 2006, the Cubs had to make a statement.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Bill Potter on Feb 11, 2009 11:43 AM CST up reply actions
Yes
The one thing I hold out hope on is that Baseball Prospectus says that Soriano is the type of player who ages well.
But the last three years of that contract are likely to be ugly. Next year should be great, though! And only five more years after that!
by Josh Timmers on Feb 11, 2009 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
Rec'd
The reality, also, is that we got a much better deal with Soriano than
1) LA with Pierre
2) LAA with Sarge Jr.
3) LAA with Hunter
4) Hou with Carlos Lee
5) Tor with Vernon Wells
6) SF with Rowand
You have to compare deals in the context they were signed. This deal is likely to hurt in years, but I’d rather have Soriano at his deal than any of those other half dozen deals.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Huh?
I’ll take Torii Hunter, Carlos Lee, Vernon Wells and Aaron Rowand over Alfonso Soriano anytime. Especially at the contract rates each of them is signed to relative to Soriano’s insane $136 million deal. Hunter is a fine all around ballplayer, to include being an outstanding outfielder. Lee has been consistent and clutch his entire career. Wells is a more complete player than Soriano ever was or will be. Rowand is a hard-nosed player that puts it all on the field and is signed to a fair market value (at least at the time of signing it) $60 million deal.
Look at the per-year deals each of those others signed, not the total.
The only one I might take ahead of Soriano is Lee, and he’s very close to not being able to play the field any more.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Let's see if I've got this right...
“We get it. You hate Alfonso Soriano and everything that is good, true, and right in the world…”
More seriously – Soriano is likely to age better than those players. Take a closer look at Vernon Wells’ production and contract and it’s enough to make Toronto gag.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Of course it was a make up
b/c he was beaten to Beltran and Furcal, so he overpaid to perhaps make a point to the league-but its the years that will kill the deal not the amount
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Hendry
turned into Tom Hicks and outbid himself for Soriano. Couldn’t agree more with your “making up” quote.
I could care less what the Cubs spend, per se. I want the best possible product on the field and if Hendry over-spends to get a player he wants, then I say “more power to ya Jim.” I am happy with Sori. I get the playoff troubles, but that is a pretty small sample size and the whole team essentially disappeared, so I’ll give him a pass.
Cubs record with Soriano
Cubs were 70-39 in games in which Soriano played last year. 27-25 in the other games.
You're hilarious!
“He’s a fool-it didn’t happen overnight”.
Wow, your country’s economy is in the total shitter, auto’s and banks getting major bailouts, people handing over keys, and HENDRY’s the fool for not seeing it coming? You’re right…he’s the only one.
I have nothing funny or creative to write.
by Canadian Cubs Fan on Feb 11, 2009 5:49 PM CST up reply actions
as I said in the past, I'm not thrilled at all with MB in the mix
but he’s a Cub, I’m gonna root like crazy for him and pray that every loudmouthed slacker in the bleacher that tries to (pardon the Cubs pun) get his GOAT gets a smackdown from some one drunker then they are.
IF .. IF .. and IF he stays healthy, focused and mature, this could be an awesome acquisition. It gets even better if Fukudome pulls out of his funk and plays up to his potential.
Well, Next Year is here .. and Jack's century's gotta end some time .. GO CUBBIES!
Bradley
is the more dynamic player..when healthy. his health is the main concern here.
if utilized correctly ie given days off, etc.. he is the better player.
plus, i would hate to see Abreu dealing with the brick walls.
"that wouldn't be a home run in a phone booth."
Bobby Abreu, a once fine ballplayer who is nearing the description of washed up
Milton Bradley is at the probable zenith of his career. Cub fans are going to learn quickly that Bradley is a remarkably complete ballplayer. Key to Bradley is avoiding any more injuries and to being a point in life with his pattern of very bad behavior is behind him for good.
Abreu, 1/5M with LAA
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Interesting
I thought the Angels were locked in on Adam Dunn. So where does Dunn wind up now???
in San Diego or Baltimore
after we sign him and trade him for Peavy or Roberts
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
Washington
has had a multi-year deal on the table to Dunn for a few weeks now, but he hasn’t decided if he wants to go there.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Bill Potter on Feb 11, 2009 10:10 AM CST up reply actions
Dunn
doesn’t want to play for the Nationals, which is no surprise because no one wants to play for the Nats. But he probably doesn’t have much choice, unless he’s willing to sign a one-year bargain contract.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 11, 2009 12:05 PM CST up reply actions
I think that's what his options will come to.
I don’t see anyone outside of Jim Bowden offering him a multi-year deal, but it might be smarter for him to take a one-year deal and hit the market again next offseason.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
Apparently he took the Nats deal
I’m hearing it’s a two-year deal with the Nats. Good for them and good for him. If he continues to produce, he can get out of DC in two seasons.
by Josh Timmers on Feb 11, 2009 3:04 PM CST up reply actions
Seems like a good deal for both teams
He’ll bring a few fans to the park to watch him hit, and if he does produce, he can peddle his wares to someone else in 1.5 years (via a deadline trade) or at the end of his contract.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
Amazing...
Yep, that makes the Bradley deal look that much worse. You pay double the money just to get DeRosa’s production from the left side, trade DeRosa for basically nothing to do it, and there were options there in the end for half the price they paid. I’m a big Abreu fan, and any deal for him under 7 million is just a huge win for that team, in my opinion.
The thing is though, Bradley was a targeted choice. It’s who the Cubs wanted from the beginning, and who they believe was likely to be the most productive in 2009. I don’t agree, but it’s not my job on the line. In the end, if they can find a way to get Bradley in 130 games this season, I think the club will feel that it was worth the cost.
by Damen Jackson on Feb 11, 2009 9:49 AM CST up reply actions
Yes and no.
Abreu’s a good player and reasonable at $7m.
But Bradley is a better player. And he’s not making that much more that this year.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Yep
A healthy Milton Bradley is the total package. A primetime left-handed bat who gets on base, can drive in runs, and plays a good outfield. Bobby Abreu would have compounded the problem the Cubs already have in the defense department.
now why in the hell did you go and make a comment like that?
Sheesh. If it’s not one thing, it’s another. All day long, you kids are running up and down the street. Turn that music down! Pull your pants up! Where are my glasses? Ah…. balderdash!!!
oh yeah, almost forgot. Get off my lawn!!!
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
back in my day......
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
Bradley
also is better defensively I believe.
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
That's fine...
I see why the Cubs believe that, and Bradley does fit the middle-of-the-order mold better. But the concern that I keep coming back to is the likelihood of him staying on the field for 140 or more games. And I’ve little confidence in Bradley doing that, which in my mind makes him a lesser option to Abreu, or any number of other options that were discussed earlier this off-season.
by Damen Jackson on Feb 11, 2009 12:09 PM CST up reply actions
Yes, but
I still don’t believe Abreu settles if the Cubs are still in the market for a RF. It’s Jim Hendry’s big roll of cash on the table that helped keep prices higher before and bottomed them out once it had been spent.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Well, that might have helped...
But there was always an oversupply of outfielders available this off-season. The Cubs still in the market would have helped, but it was obvious that Abreu was going to take a haircut pretty much from the get-go — or at least once Ibanez set the market.
by Damen Jackson on Feb 11, 2009 1:14 PM CST up reply actions
It wasn't obvious to Bobby Abreu or Adam Dunn.
I think the market would have shaken out differently had Boston or Baltimore gotten Teix.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Here's a link...
…to Jon Heyman’s coverage of the deal.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Bradley
is younger and a better hitter. sure abreu is cheaper, but do you think he’d sacrafice his body to make a play in the OF? i dont. on top of that i think we need to look at what else bradley brings to the table…a fire in the clubhouse. the cubs are full of too many quiet nice guys (see derek lee) and i think that shows in the playoffs. they need a guy in the clubhouse that when things are going bad, lights a fire under someones ass. bradley is just the guy to do that, and i believe piniella will be able to harness that better then any manager.
Abreu
is a butcher in the outfield and will probably get most of his playing time as a DH. If Bradley meets his playing bonus criteria, he’s a better value than a declining Abreu.
If not, he’s gone after 2 years.
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