Mitch Atkins could start?
by cubbiefan07 on Feb 17, 2009 4:54 PM CST
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PrintCubs.com reports that Mitch Atkins will be in the mix for the starting 5. They're should be a lot of competition this Spring. Aaron Heilman, Jeff Samardzija, and Sean Marshall all want to start. Chad Gaudin is also in the mix. I want to see "Shark" in the rotation. I don't know why Atkins would even be given a chance, I think Jeff Stevens, Angel Guzman, and other prospects would be more successful in the rotation then him. What do you guys think?
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I'm sure he's in the mix, but
He’s likely ticketed for Iowa to be a stretched out arm. Why wouldn’t he be given a chance? He had a decent 2008 that saw him end the year in AAA. He’s still a decent end of the rotation projection.
Jeff Stevens and Angel Guzman are pen arms, the former having fringe stuff as a starter (like Kevin Hart), and the latter not showing the durability. Besides Atkins and Caridad in the upper levels (AA/AAA), there really aren’t many arms that project to have a legitimate shot to be a big league starter. Marcos Mateo, perhaps. Maybe one of the fringe arms like Chen/Carrillo/Muldowney develop, but eh. Our top minor league starting arms are in A ball.
That said, I don’t think Atkins will win the job here, and long run, he probably won’t be in the organization for long. He’s the type of arm that’ll be given a chance, but if he doesn’t stick, there’s usually better arms behind him. The way things look, I think it’s Heilman’s job to lose, with Shark sent to AAA to be stretched out (along with Caridad/Atkins) and Marshall as a long man/pen lefty/spot starter.
this post is the example of how little some understand the nature of athletic competition
Going into a competitive situation for a team slot the coaching staff needs to be fair to the team and the player. Atkins will be given his shot, and sure his chances are really out there but giving him a real chance is motivation in of itself as is the actual learning experience in trying to make the grade. This also has an effect down the ladder as Samardz is being pushed by Atkins and up the ladder in each spot.
Heilman probably has the most pressure for it is do or die for his starting career, (unless he ends up with LaRussa’s Cardinals) who love to take a reliever like this and make a starter.
Marshall is on the cusp and Lou is really giving him the props to secure the 5th (err 4th starter spot) if Harden is the actual starter who gets the 25 starts.
In reality Atkins will probably show something that is promising, need to work on command and control and go to AAA to learn more and be ready for an injury or a sudden breakdown like Rich Hill last year.
The reality guess is that there are probably 10-15 starts that will be made by Samardz or Atkins or Heilman or Marshall (whomever is not the starter) because of shoulder breakdowns during the year.
The important thing is that evenyone is given a fair shot. This permeates through the entire team, as Lou needs to hold that his FAVORITE are the ones that actually produce for the team——
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
I understand athletic competition,
my point is that there are other pitchers in the Cubs system that would make more sense then Atkins.
Little harsh there...
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
well maybe it was but let us get a little real
there are so many pronouncements from keyboards that this guy or that guy is going to make the team, this guy is going here and that guy there, and in my mind it is far harsher for people to make these pronouncements based on what?
amateur observations—-possibly at the most, most are simply gut feel or stats on a screen.
If you had ever competed for a spot on a competitive athletic team, you would know the cumulative effort in waking up at the crack of dawn to get in some practice, skipping everything and focusing every waking hour thinking how to get better.
The worst thing is with all that effort and preparation is coming to a tryout and the idea that the decision is made already——but sports is not that way—-at least not sports run by masters like Piniella, LaRussa, Torre or masters in other sports like Krzyzewski, Knight, Wooden or other sports like football.
That is why there are surprises—-dark horses and players who become impact players. A coach once told me, nothing is given, you take it, beat out the other guy and you play it is that simple. If Atkins comes in and throws lasers and benders that can’t be hit——he wins a spot.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
He's right.
This is why, for example, Micah Hoffpauir wound up playing in the major leagues last year. He had a great spring in 2008 and impressed Lou with his bat.
If he hadn’t had a good spring, he’d have spent the year at Iowa, MAYBE got a September callup, and might have even been released in the offseason due to his age.
I think Ivy has overdone Atkins’ chances a bit, but he is right that dark horses come out of spring training all the time and make 25-man rosters.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I'm sorry but
that was completely overly harsh.
Toons simply wrote “I’m sure he’s in the mix but he’s likely ticketed …” He’s giving an opinion based on observation and facts. That’s 95% of the comments on this board. He didn’t say he won’t win it, just that it’s unlikely, which is pretty much what you wrote as well.
by jerry morales rules on Feb 18, 2009 9:29 AM CST up reply actions
It's a sports blog. Chill out.
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
What about the financial implications?
That’s the biggest case for Heilman being the fifth starter, even if his salary is low at 1.6 million.
The Cubs won’t pay Heilman a big league salary without giving him every opportunity to win the fifth spot in the rotation. If Marshall is pegged as the second lefty in the pen, Heilman vs. Atkins is tipped in Heilman’s favor because of cost and experience.
It’d be far easier for the Cubs to say they want experience in the rotation to cover Heilman’s struggles if he has any.
While Atkins does stand a chance, the fact the Cubs gave up Cedeno and Olsen for Heilman hurts him.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
Pronouncements from keyboards?
Who leads the charge in that category? Who presents finanaces and decision-making ideas as near-fact? Who replies in condescending tones?
What the hell did Toonster say that would make one doubt his understanding of athletic competition? That “he’s in the mix” but “likely” headed to AAA? That, in his opinion, Atkins won’t likely make the team? Is it really such a bold statement to believe that a minor-leaguer won’t make the rotation that already runs 7-8 deep?
Amateur observations? What, because you played Golf in college you believe you have some insight that the rest of us don’t? Toonster didn’t “pronounce” anything. He gave an opinion, and said key terms such as “likely” and “I don’t think” and “maybe”….reading is fundamental.
Free Ronny Cedeno
Amen. I can tell you played professionally in sports blogs.
Didn’t seem like a big deal at all to me.
Rock Chalk, ISU is goin down tonight.
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
I don't think
The Shark has enough stamina for a starter. I think it should be either Marshall or Gaudin. Gaudin had success as a starter in Oakland and I think he’d be better over Marshall.
"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti
by wrigleyrocker12 on Feb 17, 2009 5:22 PM CST reply actions
Stamina?
What factors into stamina for a starting pitcher? Samardzija would seem to have a lot of things going for him: he’s young, he is superbly conditioned, he’s tall, his best pitches are fastball and split-finger. On the other hand, he hasn’t pitched nearly as many innings as most pitchers coming out of college and the minors. Is the only way to build stamina to pitch deep into games at a relatively easy level, before putting stress on the arm in tougher situations? If so, the Cubs’ plan to start him in AAA sounds like the right idea.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
He won't go deep into games
That’s what I’m saying. He needs to have enough energy to throw 7 innings.
"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti
by wrigleyrocker12 on Feb 17, 2009 7:22 PM CST up reply actions
won't or wasn't used that way at this level last year?
His role last year on the Cubs was a middle reliever. He was a starter in the system all the way to this point.
AAA in 2008 he went 6 IP
AA in 2008 he went 5 IP
AA in 2007 he went 5.2 IP
A+ in 2007 he went 5.1 IP
A in 2006 he went 5 IP
A- in 2006 he went 4.2 IP
Seems to me he keeps going deeper.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
He is
But still, 6 innings isn’t much of an average. His ERA wasn’t fabulous either…
"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti
by wrigleyrocker12 on Feb 18, 2009 3:14 PM CST up reply actions
That's bad news for Rich Harden....
Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team
by carmen_fanzone on Feb 17, 2009 9:00 PM CST up reply actions
I am convinced Shark has the ability to be starter
he is a two pitch pitcher,
Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living."
That's kind of a contradiction, isn't it?
Don’t you need at least three pitches to be a capable starter?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
In an interview with Waddle and Silverman last week...
Samardzjia said he had 4 legit pitches and that he’s working on a 5th. (kinda made me chuckle)
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Feb 18, 2009 8:42 AM CST up reply actions
Um...yeah...you appear to have left out a word here...and a period.
"[It's going to be] a long, long spring. I will get tired of the prickly pear margaritas." - Lou Piniella, 2/16/09
In my view the 5th spot will go to Heilman ...
… with Marshall and Gaudin going to the pen. Samardzija and Atkins will be ticketed for Triple A to start the season. Along with Hart.
that will be determined what takes place on the field
but I think neither will be a regular starter by June 15th. Finances will offer much surprises.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
That's been my running theory, too.
I think when Hendry traded for Heilman, it was with the either implicit or explicit agreement that Heilman would have first dibs on the fifth spot in the rotation. After all, Heilman is a veteran pitcher who’s always wanted to start, he’s got that Notre Dame connection, Marshall was so good in the swing man role last season…it just seems like something Hendry might do.
I must admit, though, Lou’s recent comments that Marshall is the front-runner for the fifth starter spot have me reconsidering. And the reason why goes back to Lou’s emphasis on “handedness” – Marshall is a lefty and Lou may want two lefties in the rotation to add some balance. Gaudin could just as easily be the DHB (designated Harden backup) – after all, that’s partly why Hendry talked Billy Beane into throwing him into the Harden deal in the first place.
"[It's going to be] a long, long spring. I will get tired of the prickly pear margaritas." - Lou Piniella, 2/16/09
Lou says a lot of things
I don’t put much stock in his winter and spring training comments. Especially this year when he is seemingly bending over backwards to please the media and fans. Me thinks its Uncle Lou’s new strategy for dealing with the tiring elements of the job that are driving him nuts.
Also, I have hard time seeing Neal Cotts being the sole left-hander operating out of the pen. Cotts isn’t exactly a firecracker to begin with, and as you state Sean Marshall did a nice job in the pen.
I equate Lou's media quotations...
with the Peavy trade talks. I’ll believe it when I see it, rather than try to read into everything that is said during spring training.
Free Ronny Cedeno
Atkins has a shot, sure.
But as noted above, he’ll be at Iowa in case of injury.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Agreed.
Seems to me, this is typical spring training stuff – minor league guys, reclamation projects and bullpen-guys-on-the-cusp-of-being starters are typically thrown into the mix. Youngsters like Atkins usually head back to Iowa for more seasoning.
"[It's going to be] a long, long spring. I will get tired of the prickly pear margaritas." - Lou Piniella, 2/16/09
I wonder if this
expanded competition for that slot has anything to do with the 39 game schedule. A lot of different guys are going to get looks whether Lou wants them to or not.
Speaking of, what is the WBC National Team game scheduled for March 12th? An exhibition against the US team, or some other country’s national team?
The expanded schedule has a lot to do with it.
The WBC team will be one of the teams from the Asian first round pool. Details here. The opponent won’t be decided until the first round games are over.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
So That Means
that Fukudome could indeed be playing against the Cubs? Weeeiiirrrddd…
Yeah, that WOULD be weird.
But yes, it could happen.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
actually makes things interesting
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Not really. It's a practice game
I believe Jeter and Team USA will be playing the Yankees in a practice game too.
"Who's Bob Brenly? The guy that used to be the manager for Arizona?" ~ Alfonso Guilleard Soriano
for the record...
i think it’s marshal’s spot to lose, not heilmans. lou is high on marshall and loves his attitude.
+1
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
He'd also like another lefty in the pen....
Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team
by carmen_fanzone on Feb 17, 2009 9:01 PM CST up reply actions
could be solved by the end from an unknown
funny Beimel is not yet signed.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
As long as we keep him out of the bars during playoff time...
….yeah, that’d be a good pickup.
Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team
by carmen_fanzone on Feb 18, 2009 9:01 AM CST up reply actions
Marshall will be the 5th starter
barring a major meltdown… Atkins and Samardzija will be in AAA to cover for injuries. Heilman is definitely better out of the pen and should stay there. I think Guzman could end up being the 7th inning guy. We’ll see how it shakes out.
My god. I totally forgot Aaron Heilman--the Mets scrap metal--is now on our team.
BARF.
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
Geez, he's not that bad.
Check out his ‘05 through ’07 numbers. He had a down year last season – he was also hurt. I’m giving the guy a chance.
"[It's going to be] a long, long spring. I will get tired of the prickly pear margaritas." - Lou Piniella, 2/16/09
The key for Heilman
may be whether or not he can control the slider as an effective third pitch. Dave Cameron wrote a good article on fangraphs. I’ll try to link it later. It’s possible the control loss in 2008 was an aberration. That said, it seems possible that Cameron’s hypothesis, the loss of control being related to inconsistency with the slider, has some validity, and the hope would be that, as a starter, he’d get a better command of the slider. There’s some bite to it, based on the reports last year, so it will be intriguing to follow. Of course, considering how the walk rate rose at the end of the year, it could simply be a case where a guy wore down/got fatigued. After all, he pitched 281 innings from 05-07, with only 7 starts (1 complete game), in that time. It very well could be that 357 innings over 4 years wore him down.
In some respects, I’ve always thought Heilman was a poor man’s Lowe in that, they were effective pen arms, but I always wondered if they could make decent starters. Lowe turned out real well, and while I’m not expecting anything Lowe like from Heilman, I think Heilman can, at least, be a Marquis-level starter, and probably better.
Yep, that's where I'm putting my expectations at, too.
I definitely don’t see Fully Krausened turning into a Lowe or a Ryan Dempster, but I could see him being a solid back of the rotation arm. If nothing else, I think he’d be very motivated to succeed in that role.
"You've got to earn winning your division. We won more games than anybody in the National League last year, and we're going to have a target on our back, so we've got to be ready.'' - Lou Piniella, 2/17/09
I just have little respect for the Mets' pitching staff, outside of Johan.
And I think that if the Mets’ rotation—which is just about in shambles every year the last 4/5 years—can’t keep Aaron as a respectable starter, than I have a hard time thinking we should be trading some decent players for him.
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
Rotation in shambles? How about the pen.
If their rotation has been shaky then theirr bullpen has been downright terrible. Priot to ’08 Heilman had been an excellent reliever. The Mets needed him in the pen more.
He has the talent to be a #3 starter. Will that transfer over? Who knows. He certainly deserves a shot.
"There's nothing wrong with this team that more hitting, more pitching, more fielding, and more hitting couldn't help." Bill Buckner
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