Does A-Rod break the Home Run Record?

by nmcubsfan on Feb 23, 2009 1:20 PM CST Comment 40 comments

So I saw this link a little while ago, and it's a article talking about A-Rod breaking the home run record. Since he's in the news so much now, and with the talk of steroids front and center yet again, I thought this might be interesting to talk about. I'll let you read the article for yourself, but personally I think he breaks the record. Now whether or not the public embraces him when he does it, or treats him like Bonds when he broke the record is another story. Here's the link:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=3927591

Poll

Does A-Rod break the all time HR record

yes

43 votes

no

8 votes

not sure

4 votes

55 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Comments

I think he breaks it.

Will he get any sort of adulation? Well, we’re probably six years away from knowing. A lot depends on whether he stays clean over the next six years and what his general approach and attitude are.

People can be very forgiving. They never forgave Bonds or Clemens because they stonewalled. A-Rod might get the adulation just because he’s not Barry.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 23, 2009 1:23 PM CST reply actions

I dunno, considering his reputation has been completely shattered

#34: You'll be missed!

by Chanman25 on Feb 23, 2009 1:31 PM CST up reply actions

I'm not so sure his rep is totaled.

A-Rod has always been polarizing and viewed as somewhat phony. However, he was not universally hated like Barry.

If he can come off as sincere and less programmed over the next few years, he should be fine.

by N Oakley on Feb 23, 2009 1:33 PM CST up reply actions

if he came out and actually TOLD the TRUTH

then yes, but his stories do NOT match up and he’s turning out to be a complete liar..

#34: You'll be missed!

by Chanman25 on Feb 23, 2009 1:34 PM CST up reply actions

It looks that way, yes.

But as I said, people are forgiving. We’ll see how he’s received this year.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 23, 2009 1:36 PM CST up reply actions

Agreed,

but I guess I believe he’s taken the path chosen by othe players who have “confessed” (Pettite and Brian Roberts) and admitted to some and tried to duck sharing the entire truth.

With all A-Rod’s coin, he will hire the fanciest PR firms to refurbish his image.

by N Oakley on Feb 23, 2009 1:44 PM CST up reply actions

Pettitte and Roberts...

… seem to have been forgiven. Wonder why it’s different for A-Rod.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 23, 2009 1:52 PM CST up reply actions

Just guessing, but...

When Pettite and Roberts fessed up, other names were out as well. A-Rod is solo and adding salt in the wound by appearing later.

by N Oakley on Feb 23, 2009 1:57 PM CST up reply actions

It's Different for A-Rod Because of Initially...

bashing Selena Roberts.for being a stalker. He repaired some of the damage by apologizing to Roberts. At first, he appeared to be more upset about Roberts pursuing the story too aggressively than he was sorry about using steroids. A-Rod will be viewed more positively than Bonds, but not as positively as Pettitte and Brian Roberts.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Feb 23, 2009 2:15 PM CST up reply actions

Playing devils advocate here for a moment...

… A-Rod does have at least one point in his favor in criticizing the SI writers — that being, he was the only one of the 104 players outed.

We’ve been down this road before, but there are good arguments on both sides of revealing the other 103 names.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 23, 2009 2:58 PM CST up reply actions

Does SI have the whole list? Maybe the source chose to give only one name (ARod) to SI?

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Feb 24, 2009 7:45 PM CST up reply actions

I don't know the answer.

But SOMEONE has the whole list.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 25, 2009 4:07 AM CST up reply actions

They're not

the same quality players A-Rod is. He’s been considered one of the top 3 hitters in baseball for many years now. Those are the guys get the most attention. The question always seems to turn into, how many HR’s would he really have if he were clean? And its a valid question which will never be answered and will forever spawn speculation.

by Chuck12570 on Feb 23, 2009 4:29 PM CST up reply actions

Probably because so many hopes were pinned to A-Rod.

Pettite and Roberts are not exactly in the running for baseball’s most cherished records. It’s bad when you find out that a good player is a cheat – it’s mindblowingly awful when you find out that the very best player in the game was a cheat.

Especially when he is the guy you’d hoped would reclaim the HR title for the good guys after the last “best player” cheated his way to that record.

As Seinfeld put it, it’s like finding out Mickey Mantle corked his bat.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Feb 24, 2009 10:46 AM CST up reply actions

i've hated him

ever since he tried to slap a ball out of some first baseman’s hand. i forget which game/series/team that was.

by nathew on Feb 23, 2009 11:14 PM CST up reply actions

IIRC

vs Boston in the Playoffs a few years ago

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Feb 24, 2009 8:34 AM CST up reply actions

Close

That was actually during game 6 of the legendary 2004 ALCS. It was Boston’s Bronson Arroyo trying to tage Rodriguez out. From Wikipedia:

Bronson Arroyo took the mound for Boston in the eighth and, with one out, allowed a Miguel Cairo double. Derek Jeter singled him in to close the gap to 4-2, leading up to the series’ most controversial play. Alex Rodriguez grounded a ball to Arroyo, who picked up the ball and ran to the baseline to tag Rodríguez out, but the Yankee slapped Arroyo’s arm, knocking the ball loose. While the ball rolled down the baseline, Rodríguez went to second and Jeter scored. After another long conversation among the umpires, Rodríguez was called out for interference and Jeter was ordered back to first, thus wiping out the score. The Red Sox got out of the inning without further damage. The call further incensed the Yankee fans, already irate over the home run call in the fourth. As Torre and Rodríguez continued to frenetically argue with the umpires, many fans began to throw balls and other debris onto the field. Boston manager Terry Francona pulled his players from the field to protect them. After a delay, order was restored when NYPD officers took the field in riot gear. The presence of riot police on the field for a full inning was unprecedented in American professional sports and reflected the chaotic environment of that evening. The Red Sox were retired in the top of the ninth. Red Sox closer Keith Foulke came in for the bottom of the ninth and allowed Matsui and Sierra to walk, bringing Tony Clark to the plate as the potential pennant-winning run, but Clark struck out swinging on a full count to end the game.

I’ve also disliked him from that very moment, and every bit of news about him has only solidified my discontent.

by Unplugged68 on Feb 24, 2009 9:24 AM CST up reply actions

I think he's going to get the benefit of the doubt

Since he’s “confessed”, people will be mad at him for a bit, and then it’ll blow over.

I think he breaks it simply because he’s in the AL. The designated hitter is going to be huge in his chase, because as he ages and his skills diminish, I think the yankees will move him into the DH. Will that be financially prudent? Dunno, but this is the yankee’s we’re talking about, and the one team in basball that as far as I can remember has had a $200M payroll every year of this decade.

Secondly I think the steinbrenners would and will do whatever it takes to bring this record back to yankee stadium. They would love nothing more then to be able to point to the record books and note once again the the all time HR leader is a yankee, and possible the HR leader for a single season as well.

by nmcubsfan on Feb 23, 2009 1:54 PM CST up reply actions

Well, they could just sign Barry and they'd be covered, no matter what! ;-)

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Feb 23, 2009 2:34 PM CST up reply actions

I say Vitters ends up with 763

circa 2030

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Feb 23, 2009 1:50 PM CST reply actions

A-Rod is a lock to get to 800 HRs

I hate the guy as much as the next person, but he’ll get the all-time homerun record. Will anybody care? Not so much.

by BLou on Feb 23, 2009 1:56 PM CST reply actions

YES

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on Feb 23, 2009 2:21 PM CST reply actions

Pick your poison

Would you rather ARod or Bonds be the home run king. If I had to choose, it would be ARod.

I have nothing funny or creative to write.

by Canadian Cubs Fan on Feb 23, 2009 2:21 PM CST reply actions

At least Barry was fun to watch

And had some flair and exuberance for the game; the 360 spin after hitting a homer, licking his bat etc etc, I dont know that you can say that about Arod; he’s always struck me as dull

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Feb 23, 2009 2:24 PM CST up reply actions

I think he does, yes

You might want to add a poll to this.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Feb 23, 2009 2:44 PM CST reply actions

Not sure how to do that

Not sure how to put a poll in the post. this is the first time i’ve done something like this on this site. Would be interesting though

by nmcubsfan on Feb 23, 2009 2:49 PM CST up reply actions

Edit your post...

… you should see an option to add a poll on the side of the text entry box.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 23, 2009 2:57 PM CST up reply actions

Thanks

Thanks Al…..got to go for now, it’s midnight here in Kuwait. Talk to you guys later….

by nmcubsfan on Feb 23, 2009 3:04 PM CST reply actions

No "lights out" rule, eh?

I’ll bet your up by 5, though. Or is it 4?

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Feb 23, 2009 3:17 PM CST up reply actions

morning.....

today it’s 7, but some days it’s 5 some it’s 4, just depends on what’s going on. I can’t wait to rotate back to a normal life…..

by nmcubsfan on Feb 23, 2009 10:29 PM CST up reply actions

I can imagine

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Feb 24, 2009 6:55 AM CST up reply actions

He needs

763 HR’s to break the record, he’s got 553 now. 211 HR’s comes out to about 30 HR’s per year for the next 7 years, at which point he will be 39 years old. I don’t think it’s a lock at all. While he can probably easily hit 30+ now, I doubt he can go the next 7 years without suffering an injury that severely limits his PA’s for at least one of those years.

However, if he has another monster year to the tune of 55 HR’s it greatly increases his chances. For some reason though, I doubt he hits over 40 throughout the rest of his career.

by JimboJet on Feb 23, 2009 3:47 PM CST reply actions

Nitpick.

210 HR is what he needs (763-553).

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 23, 2009 4:03 PM CST up reply actions

This is where the DH comes into play

once he starts declining in the field, he can be stashed at the DH position. All he has to do then is trot out 3 or 4 times a game to hit, and maybe backup third once or twice a week. That keeps him healthy enough to keep going over a long season, and long enough to break the record.

by nmcubsfan on Feb 23, 2009 10:34 PM CST up reply actions

Think

about it like this, since A-Rod’s first full year in 1996 his lowest HR total was 23, and since 1998 his worst has been 35. Also, take the fact that the fewest games A-Rod has played in a full season was 129 in 1999 with Seattle, and that year he still hit 42.

My point here is that A-Rod has shown durability (granted it may well have been due to steroids) and has only posted a sub 30HR season ONCE in his career. Granted, with age there stands a very good chance that he may not hit as many as he has previously, but I still believe he will end up with at least 800 career home runs.

by BCB1987 on Feb 23, 2009 4:18 PM CST reply actions

Steroids increase your injury risk, not decrease it

Because your muscles get stronger but your tendons do not.

by Wreckard on Feb 24, 2009 9:48 AM CST up reply actions

I thought it was a foregone conclusion ...

until I read this article. If I were a betting man I’d still bet on him breaking it, but now I’m not as sure.

I also thought one of the more interesting notes in that story was that Jimmie Foxx only hit 34 home runs after his 33rd birthday. I checked his stats at baseball-reference.com, and he had some amazing numbers for a 12-year stretch, then practically fell off the face of the earth.

Harry Caray: Marshall is going back to LA to get cocaine for his injured foot.
Steve Stone: Harry, that’s Novocaine.

by Julio Zuleta's Voodoo on Feb 24, 2009 9:27 AM CST reply actions

Ralph Kiner...

… averaged 44 HR a year from 1947-53, then got hurt and retired two years later. And that was in a lower-offense era.

Kiner was the only man to have two 50+ homer seasons in the 1940’s.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 24, 2009 10:37 AM CST up reply actions

If A-Fraud is to be believed then he stopped taking steroids in 2003

That means he has played 5 straight seasons off the juice. Suffice to say, his offensive production from 2004 onward has remaind mind-bogglingly great.

A-Fraud is a shoo-in to get to 800 HRs. Heck, he might even get to 900 with little sweat.

by BLou on Feb 24, 2009 10:53 AM CST reply actions