Hung-Wen Chen/Hong-Wen Chen

I've seen it spelled both ways, although the former is how it is listed in our system.

Anyhow, the Cubs farmhand had a decent outing the other day for the Taiwanese NT. Rather than going through the foreign papers, I figured I'd just link to the taiwanbaseball site. He gave up 1 run in 4 innings and touched 92 mph, according to the site.

It's a good experience for him, although from some pictures I've seen, the kid might need to go on a diet. He's a nice arm in the system to have, a bit more upside than your typical system arm, but still not a really valuable commodity, even in our weak system. Fringe fastball that more often than not sits in the upper 80's. Solid secondary options. He might have more juice as a middle reliever/long man type than a starter, which might give him some more value. Similar to guys like Billy Muldowney and Marco Carrillo in some respects. As of right now, I don't think Chen is slated to start the season in the rotation if he is in AA (which is where he likely starts the year).

It's a young Taiwan club this year as a lot of the older veterans aren't playing. Chen is basically their number 2 starter. A borderline top 30 arm in the system, IMO, and I didn't have him in my top 50. Doesn't mean he won't reach the bigs, but that the combination of information we have at the moment suggests that expectations should be a realistic on what Chen might become.

8 months ago toonsterwu 5 comments 0 recs |

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If Chen is actually hitting 92

Then I think he’s an easy top 20 prospect. I don’t think he actually was, but I can believe he was at 89-90. I actually put him at #19 because he does something that I greatly value in minor league prospects: The dude throws strikes. He only walked 25 batters in 128 innings. Muldowney walked 23 in only 85 innings. Carillo walked 43 in 140 innings. That’s a big difference between them.

Another thing I like about him. He took the ball every time it was given to him and threw. Starting, relieving, didn’t matter. He made a few emergency starts too when a scheduled starter got injured or promoted, and pitched well too.

As far as his weight, he probably could stand to lose a few pounds, but I don’t worry about that too much with pitchers. Maybe it was all those years growing up watching Rick Reuschel.

In fact, I believe he’s a Rick Reuschel-type pitcher. (Not that I’m comparing him to Reuschel. It’s way too early for that.) He’s a guy who doesn’t walk or strike out people and gets a lot of outs through a sinker that produces a lot of double plays. His countryman Chieng-Ming Wang is the same way. (Although his ground ball/fly ball ratio dropped from Peoria to Daytona. Don’t know if that means anything.) But guys like that often produce better results as they move up the system since they rely on their defenses so much. Better defenses bring better results.

Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not predicting that he’s going to be the next Rick Reuschel or Chieng-Ming Wang. In fact, he’s more likely than not to not make the majors and his upside is likely no better than a #4 starter or middle reliever. But I think he has a chance to be a pretty good #4 starter or middle reliever, and in fact I think he’s one of the more intriguing prospects we have.

by Josh77 on Feb 27, 2009 7:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

guess I'll have to wait until I see how you ranked it in the annual

But a comparison of Chien-Ming Wang doesn’t really hold for me – Wang’s stuff is much better. In the minors, before Wang became a heavy sinker guy, he had good secondary stuff to go along with his fastballs that netted K’s. He just became more effective when he learned the sinker, but Chen’s isn’t a bowling ball sinker. Chen’s stuff is no where near Wang’s level.

I root for Chen, for a variety of reasons. Hitting 92, as the website said, meant that was the high end, so I imagine he was sitting in the upper 80’s, his normal velocity. He’s hit 92 … I believe there was a game this summer that he reached back and dialed up 94-95 for one last out, but my memory is slipping me.

It’s a bit hard to project him as a middle reliever right now as we don’t know if he can add juice to his pitches. The normal thought is yes, but that doesn’t always hold. If he can’t increase his fastball velocity, he’s basically Joe Borowski in a best case scenario as a pen arm. Is he better than Carrillo? Yes. But stuff is fairly similar, let’s see how his control holds up as he moves forward. Early indications suggest he won’t be in the rotation. Considering Muldowney is working his way back, I’m hardpressed to take last year’s sample and say definitively that Chen has far better control. Their stuff is about similar, Billy might have a bit better stuff.

Here’s hoping that you are right on Chen, as I want Chen to succeed, but I honestly can’t put him in a top 20 arms list for the system.

by toonsterwu on Feb 28, 2009 12:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Of course Wang has better stuff

I think that’s clear from me saying that Chen has a #4 starter ceiling. My comparison to Wang wasn’t a projection but rather a classification—almost as if Chen was trying to imitate Wang. In the 1980s, Bill James wrote about the “Tommy John family” of pitchers, who were left-handers who didn’t strike out or walk many batters, gave up a lot of hits but got a lot of double plays and controlled the running game and kept the ball in the park. Other than being right-handed, both Chen and Wang fit that mold. (Actually, I don’t know about Chen and the running game, but that’s a far smaller part of the game today than it was when James was writing in 1984.) But maybe because they’re right handed, we should call it the “Bob Tewskbury family.” In fact, now that I remember the guy, Tewksbury is a really good comp for Chen.

Over the course of his minor league career, Chen has only walked 1.65 batters per nine innings. That makes me go “Wow” even if the rest of his stuff leaves me unimpressed.

Just for comparison, Wang, one of the best control pitchers in the majors, has walked 2.55 batters per nine through his career.

Conversely though, I don’t see where you’re getting Joe Borowski. At age 22 in the Carolina League, Borowski walked 37 and struck out 70 in 62 innings. Even when he was closing for the Cubs, Borowski struggled with his control as I think most of us can remember from bald spots in our hair from pulling it out back then. :-) Of course, Borowski also threw pretty hard before his arm problems.

As I said, I find Chen to be more of an “intriguing” prospect than a good one. He’s not going to impress the scouts with his stuff, but neither did Tewksbury and he won over 100 games in the majors. Chen would be lucky to have such a career, but I do believe it’s at least possible.

by Josh77 on Feb 28, 2009 3:13 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

If he's that RH sinker-ball type....

… like Tewksbury or Reuschel, he could be very successful at Wrigley Field, which is well suited to such a pitcher. Jason Marquis was the same type of pitcher, though not nearly as good, and he did have some success at Wrigley.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 28, 2009 4:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

He does throw a sinkerball

but he also uses a change-up a lot too. I really have to see him pitch to get a better sense of how good his sinker is, but it was pretty successful in two levels of A ball last season.

by Josh77 on Feb 28, 2009 12:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs