Have the Cubs gotten better?
by DGU on Feb 3, 2009 9:49 AM CST
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PrintThe offseason is not over. Jim Hendry still has time to add more players. But as we wait for spring training, there's nothing wrong with debating Jim Hendry's progress report this offseason. Have the Cubs gotten better?
To answer this question, I'm going to make use of Baseball Prospectus' powerful PECOTA predictions, a computer program which takes in a lot of player data to make some of the best projections available for future seasons. To compare the outgoing players with the incoming players, I'll be using the short-hand statistic WARP, "Wins Above Replacement Player," which takes into account offense, defense, and playing time. So, when PECOTA predicts a WARP of 3.9 for Milton Bradley, it's already taking into account that he's only going to play a partial season.
PECOTA is not perfect, of course, and there's plenty of room to debate these projections, but it's no dummy either and gives us a good baseline to debate: Have the Cubs gotten better?
Kerry Wood (2.9 WARP, $10 M)
Felix Pie (2.6 WARP, $0.4 M)
Mark DeRosa (2.4 WARP, $5.5 M)
Jim Edmonds (2.0 WARP, ??$)
Jason Marquis (1.5 WARP, $9.875 M, Cubs paying $.875 M)
Bob Howry (1.2 WARP, $2.75 M)
Rich Hill (1.0 WARP, $.445 M)
Michael Wuertz (1.0 WARP, $1.1 M)
Ronny Cedeno (0.8 WARP, $.8 M)
Daryle Ward (0.6 WARP, ??$)
Henry Blanco (0.4 WARP, $.75 M)
Jose Ceda (0.0 WARP, $.4 M)
This gives us a total of 16.4 wins going out with roughly $31 M saved.
Milton Bradley (3.9 WARP, $9 M)
Kevin Gregg (1.9 WARP, $4.2 M)
Aaron Heilman (1.3 WARP, $1.625 M)
Luis Vizcaino (1.2 WARP, $3.5 M)
Jeff Stevens (0.8 WARP, $.4 M)
Joey Gathright (0.6 WARP, $0.8 M)
Aaron Miles (0.4 WARP, $2.2 M)
Paul Bako (0.3 WARP, $.725 M
This gives us 10.4 wins coming back with a little over $23 M spent.
A few head-to-head comparisons:
PECOTA likes the Marquis for Vizcaino trade. We gave up a third of a win, saving a lot of money. The combination of Heilman and Marshall should improve on Marquis in that 5th starter spot, with Vizcaino taking one of their spots in the 'pen well enough.
PECOTA thinks Jim Hendry chose well in Milton Bradley, giving him a higher WARP than Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu. PECOTA also sees a bounceback for Kosuke Fukudome (yes, it does take into account second-half splits), giving Kosuke a tenth WARP advantage on Felix Pie.
On the other hand, the infield decisions don't look so good to PECOTA. PECOTA likes Mike Fontenot well enough, but not Aaron Miles. Together they rate 2.1 WARP, a win less than DeRosa and Cedeno, at a savings of only $3.7 M. This needs some careful consideration, however. While sticking with Cedeno over Miles would have saved $1.4 M, Ronny and Aaron have opposite splits. Ironically, Miles, the switch-hitter, hits leftys better and Ronny the right-hander hits rightys better. Miles is a better platoon partner for Fontenot. Additionally, PECOTA sees some potential in Jeff Stevens.
PECOTA doesn't like Jose Ceda, and gives Kevin Gregg a better-than-expected projection. So, that trade is a winner in the immediate short-term. However, in an off-season where relievers' prices have dropped quite a bit, the Cubs have saved relatively little on the 'pen overall while taking a decent hit in wins moving from Wood-Howry-Wuertz to Gregg-Heilman-Vizcaino. Granted some of the cost in Vizcaino comes as "savings" from Marquis.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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I like the Bradley move
Of course, he’s a better option in RF than Fukudome. But based on your projections, we are 6 wins less, and saved 31M and then spent 23M for a total savings of 8M correct?
So unless that 8M is earmarked for Peavy, I think we’ve gotten marginally worse; particularly in the bullpen and middle infield.
Furthermore, a lot of our 09 success depends on the health of integral parts (Bradley, Dempster, Zambrano, Harden) and guys repeating their 08 career years (Bradley, Dempster, Soto, Theriot and to some extent, Harden)
The jettisoning of DeRosa and Wuertz are the most puzzling to me; I dont think Aaron MIles will contribute all that much, other than a warm body to fill a few defensive positions-and the bridge to the 8th/9th inning is more suspect than it was last year.
I think the OF will ultimately be better, Bradley should be able to outperform Jim Edmonds, while shifting last years RF production into this years CF platoon.
So basically, my concerns are the bullpen and the middle infield-can Theriot repeat his batting performance? Can Fontenot handle a full-time role?
So if those six wins could cost us the NL Central, then I think we’re certainly worse off than last year.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
I'm just getting to read comments now, so this may get addressed below, but I think it should be up top here anyway.
I am not saying we are six wins less. I am not saying PECOTA says we are six wins less. I’m comparing players in v. players out and what they bring to the table. For example, PECOTA seems to suggest (w/o having seen the full PECOTA cards yet) that a platoon of Mike Fontenot and Aaron Miles will duplicate Mark DeRosa’s production at 2B. PECOTA also likes Micah Hoffpauir better than Ward, if I recall correctly. So this isn’t a full analysis of the post-season roster v. the new roster. That should wait for spring training anyway.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 3, 2009 12:27 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Gotcha
do you have to have a paid subscription to see those projections?
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Yep.
I find it money well spent.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Im interested in Iannetta vs Soto
Sotos gonna be gone in my draft (b/c of the large numbers of Cubs fans) so I was curious how theyd stack up
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
I'm not worried about Theriot
He seems to have overcome his late-season swoon, which suggests to me that he’s learned to handle the rigors of a big-league season. I do agree with you on the DeRosa move. Unless we get Peavy, there was no good reason to trade him.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
I'm okay with Theriot.
I would prefer a better defensive SS, but have also seen worse than Theriot.
My only request would be not to bat Theriot in front of Lee. IMO it was the combination of the two, not just one or the other, that lead to all those double plays.
Interesting
The analysis further strengthens my belief that the changes may equate to a couple fewer wins in the regular season.
Provided the team can control the NL Central and make the playoffs, they may be better organized to compete against three good starting pitchers as Bradley fits the bill for a clutch hitter.
While Bradley appears healthy, it seems too much of the season and potential playoff run is contingent on his staying off the DL.
Fontenot
you didn’t add in the WARP for Fontenot getting more playing time, so I think the margin of 6 games should be narrowed down to at least 4.
Very nice analysis, DGU
In line with miker’s point, though, should we also consider the increased playing time for some of the Cubs’ young pitchers? Let’s say Angel Guzman takes the innings that would have gone to Wuertz (or even Wood) and does just as well as they were projected to do. How do we include that in the analysis?
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
I may get to a little of that below in comments.
Or I may wait till we know what the final roster is.
For now, I’m just comparing players in to players out.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
I also appreciate this analysis,
but would like to point out that PECOTA has Rich Hill at 1.0 WARP, and I believe that’s because the system includes 2007 #‘s in its projection. I don’t think Hill will be 1.0 WARP, although I could be wrong.
Don’t point it out to the Derosa lovers, but PECOTA also has Felix Pie as more valuable than him.
by philadelphiacub on Feb 3, 2009 1:07 PM CST up reply actions
DeRosa and Hill
I don’t think PECOTA adequately recognizes the value DeRosa brings in being able to play multiple positions at average to above average defense.
I’d agree on Hill that PECOTA’s not worth much for him. Either he’ll get it again or he won’t.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 3, 2009 3:30 PM CST up reply actions
well, the thing is with Derosa
“versatility” is an asset more to fans than anyone else (I realize this may open a can of worms). Part of what allowed Derosa to move around the field was Mike Fontenot. If there was no one who could play adequate 2nd base for a significant period, then Derosa stays there. The other thing is that fans often value guys who can play lots of positions, but the fact is that normally players who move around alot aren’t good enough to stick in one position. Derosa in 08: a.) put up great numbers, so great he is unlikely to repeat them and b.) is average defensively at 2B, nothing more (although I’m not sure that matters to my point). Chase Utley could easily play 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, RF, and maybe even CF and SS adequately. But the fact is, he’s so good at 2B that no one is going to replace him, and the other positions (because of being less challenging defensively) can be filled adequately by people who also contribute alot offensively.
Also regarding the Pie-Derosa comp., I’m sure that the playing time Pie will get in Baltimore effects his projection- playing time he would not get in Chicago.
by philadelphiacub on Feb 3, 2009 8:49 PM CST up reply actions
You're right at one level.
Versatility is only worth as much as the player behind the versatile one on the depth chart. But DeRosa is unique in his ability to play the utility role at such a high level. What’s the “replacement player” level for utility guy?
A couple other things…
PECOTA is taking into account DeRosa’s likely slide.
DeRosa’s 2B defense would be better if he was left at 2B. He took fielding practice at a half-dozen positions.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 3, 2009 8:55 PM CST up reply actions
I'm still not sure that entirely explains it, though . . .
DeRo was rarely a liability at any of the positions he played. Sure, he was going to catch every ball ticketed for right field, but he rarely made an embarrassing error no matter where he played.
And his offense (even if he didn’t have another career year) is still likely to be better than Pie’s.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Which is why I think stats (even sabermetrics) only take you so far
There is still something to how you play.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on Feb 4, 2009 11:30 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
stats show the immediate results of the raw data, without including variables. Great examples
Blown Saves (if there are errors, how is it the closers fault)
attempred base stealers thrown out (if you catch Maddux, does that mean you suck in this area)
Inherited Runners Stranded (again errors play a part of this, so would conceeding the run to geta DP)
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
I would add...
… you & I disagree on letting Kerry Wood go.
Otherwise, I think you & I are in agreement on the moves.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
There's a difference in your statement and DGU's question...
The question wasn’t “do you like the moves?” It was “have the Cubs gotten better?”
No reasonable person would argue that we got better trading (effectively) Wood and Ceda for Gregg. But we got less expensive, and the dropoff may not be huge.
I don’t think we got better. We just got different and shifted around some salary. On the whole, I’m not overly excited one way or the other about the moves we made, but most involved marginal (for us) pieces.
We are essentially replacing Edmonds’s .930+ OPS in ~90 games with Bradley’s (hopefully) .930+ OPS in ??? games. The other moves are predominantly on the margins, with the exception of effectively replacing DeRosa/Fontenot with Fontenot/Miles, which is clearly a step back.
Thus, while I certainly understand some of the moves made, I don’t think we got better. I think we got a bit worse, primarily due to budget constraints.
by SouthernCub on Feb 3, 2009 5:21 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
To take it a bit further...
we also took away a lot of our margin for error/injury with this offseason by letting Wood walk and by trading DeRosa. Again, it was largely due to the fact that we had budget constraints. But that needs to be factored into whether or not we got better.
The margin for error/injury is a big factor here.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 3, 2009 7:11 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed...
Especially when you consider that we were relatively fortunate with regards to injuries last year. Last year, we had 9-10 players of starter quality and 6-7 guys capable of regular solid starts. This year, we have only 8-9 quality position players and 5-6 starters. That depth (or lack thereof) could really come back to haunt us.
by SouthernCub on Feb 3, 2009 8:33 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
By liking it, doesn't that imply he thinks they've gotten better?
I wouldn’t like moves that made the team worse.
remember who we're talking about.
who really knows the mind of BlueMike?
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Feb 4, 2009 1:11 PM CST up reply actions
May you be touched
by his noodley appendage
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
Little Confused
The most confusing aspect of this off season to me is why did Hendry seemingly dismantle a 97 win team? The obvious answers are because of the Cubs showing in the last two playoff series, and Lou’s love of the lefty. IMHO, the addition of Bradley makes sense, and I know that some moves had to be made to compensate for his contract, but why dismantle one of the leagues better bullpens AND trade away a player in DeRo that filled all of your reserve needs that the Cubs are now trying to fill just to acquire a more left handed team?
Time will tell, and as had been stated numerous times, Hendry isn’t done making moves whether they occur now or later. Just not as excited about this team as I would have liked to be at this point in the year. Especially after coming off of last season.
by Tangled Up In Blue on Feb 3, 2009 10:21 AM CST reply actions
I like most of the changes in the bullpen....
With the exception of Gregg replacing Wood. I still think Wood will outperform him this year.
But, I applaud finally saying goodbye to Howry and Wuertz! Time to make room for new blood. I was hoping we would’ve traded Howry in ’07… but we held on to him too long.
As for everything else… we still lack a real Major League SS. But, Hendry’s seemed to cut some dead weight with guys who didn’t pan out for us, and has adjusted the 40-man roster.
I do think that we gave up on Pie too soon. We didn’t groom properly, and eventually ran out of options with all his call-ups. He’s still very young… he’ll put it together in Baltimore.
I'm not going to even bother trying to update this sig everyday anymore... that's what the standings column on ESPN is for.
Updated on May 25, 2008
I agree with moving Howry and Wuertz.
I should have been more specific and said that my main concern with the bullpen is with Wood being gone. I think Wood, if he would have signed a one or two year deal, would have made the bullpen much better than the addition of Gregg.
by Tangled Up In Blue on Feb 3, 2009 11:27 AM CST up reply actions
If you dont think that Theriot is a major league shortstop...
…even after he hit .307/.387 last season, I cant help but wonder what it is exactly that you’re looking for out of your shortstop? Better defense? Would you prefer Cesar Izturis? Me either.
Theriot had the 2nd highest average of any shorstop in the MLB (higher than Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, and Jeter, among others), had the 2nd highest OBP of any SS in MLB (behind Hanley), and despite being a terrible hitter for power he wasnt the worst power hitting SS in baseball.
Would you prefer Marco Scutaro? Yuniesky Betancourt? Bobby Crosby? Edger Renteria? I realize Theriot isnt the 2nd coming of Ryno, Jeter, or Ripken, but he’s a decent hitting and decent fielding shortstop.
One thing you learned as a Cubs fan: when you bought you ticket, you could bank on seeing the bottom of the ninth.
Joe Garagiola
by Ryan at Cubshub on Feb 3, 2009 12:59 PM CST up reply actions
Theriot
I am a Theriot supporter. I agree with everything you say. I know he gets bashed on here a lot, but he has produced higher than my expectations for him. I am very pleased that the Cubs haven’t replaced him and look for him to continue to produce.
by Tangled Up In Blue on Feb 3, 2009 1:44 PM CST up reply actions
If he put up those numbers at 2B... then fine.
His defensive shortcomings would be masked at 2B.
Wake up.
Average range + average arm = not your first choice at SS.
I'm not going to even bother trying to update this sig everyday anymore... that's what the standings column on ESPN is for.
Updated on May 25, 2008
by SackMan on Feb 3, 2009 1:57 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Who would you rather have?
Given Theriot’s production and salary, I would say he is a good fit for this club.
by Tangled Up In Blue on Feb 3, 2009 2:06 PM CST up reply actions
Who would you rather have?
Anyone better.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Feb 3, 2009 3:00 PM CST up reply actions
well he's the best available option
b/c there has been no signals from anywhere that theyre looking to change at that position
Theriot can hit at this level, and I would agree he’d be better suited for secondbase, but he’s the best SS option currently on the team and that isnt likely to change at any point this season
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Me too...
…but Jimmy Rollins, Derek Jeter, Hanley Ramirez, etc., arent available.
Not every player can be an all-star. This aint the Yankees, we dont have that kind of budget.
One thing you learned as a Cubs fan: when you bought you ticket, you could bank on seeing the bottom of the ninth.
Joe Garagiola
by Ryan at Cubshub on Feb 3, 2009 10:28 PM CST up reply actions
Wake up?
I need to wake up? Really?
You’re ignoring the offensive side of this discussion and I’m ignoring the defensive side, I’ll concede that point… but woud you prefer a defensive wiz like Cesar Izturis?
One thing you learned as a Cubs fan: when you bought you ticket, you could bank on seeing the bottom of the ninth.
Joe Garagiola
by Ryan at Cubshub on Feb 3, 2009 9:13 PM CST up reply actions
My first choice would be Cal Ripken Jr. in his prime
But unless you have some youth serum and a heck of a lot of money stashed away in your sofa, I’m fine with Riot.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
While I would agree...
…that it’s a bit over the top to say that Theriot isn’t a major league shortstop, citing his batting average and saying “he wasn’t the worst power hitting SS in baseball” is almost damning with faint praise. There is a school of thought that says it would be better to have a stronger defender at that position – say, Orlando Cabrera (who’s still available) – even if that player wouldn’t hit an endless barrage of singles to center and right field. Why? Because the runs he would save could end up helping the team just as much.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
This is all a preference issue, of course...
…but the Cubs are an offensive minded team. Every position has been manned based on offensive ability, and it seems thats how Lou prefers this team to be. Look at all of the good or great defensive players that offensive short comings… Cedeno, Pie and Izturis all got replaced by better offensive players that were inferrior defensive players by comparison.
If Lou is willing to use Hoffpauir in the outfield THAT should be the complaint about defense, not Theriot at short.
One thing you learned as a Cubs fan: when you bought you ticket, you could bank on seeing the bottom of the ninth.
Joe Garagiola
by Ryan at Cubshub on Feb 3, 2009 9:22 PM CST up reply actions
Fair enough...
…but I’ll complain about both of them, thank you very much.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Well...
Kerry Wood is gone for two clear reasons. One, the Cubs were logically leery about his ongoing ability to stay healthy. Two, Wood insisted on a three year contract from the Cubs. Tying up $20 million plus on Kerry Wood would have been unsound, especially when you layer on top the fact that Carlos Marmol has paid his dues and is amply qualified and ready to be a major league closer.
Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno, Michael Wuertz and Rich Hill are gone because they no longer are envisioned to meet expectations and projections.
Jason Marquis is gone to free up money to sign Milton Bradley.
Aaron Heilman is here because he is a good value and can be legitimate contender for the 5th spot in the rotation.
Milton Bradley is here because the Cubs have screaming need for left-handed hitting AND is here to make up for the failure of Kosuke Fukudome and Felix Pie to assume roles in the Cub outfield.
Joey Gathright is here to provide vesatility in the outfield and a needed injection of speed. Plus he does maintain a measure of upside where he “could” become something more than just a 5th outfielder. Especially if Kosuke flops in center field.
Getting rid of Mark DeRosa is the only head scratcher. Fact is the Cubs only saved a net of $2.5 million in 2009 buy getting rid of DeRosa and inserting Aaron Miles. We also got back dubious prospects from Cleveland.
I would agree
…with the majority of your points. I don’t agree with the release of Wood, and not because of sentimental reasons. He was one of the better closers in the league last year, and seeminlgly would have signed a one year deal with us. If nothing else, Wood as insurance if Marmol can’t handle the closer role makes more sense to me.
All the other moves, save DeRosa, I can see the logic in as well. I just don’t see how what the Cubs have gotten in return makes them a better team. Of course, the games have to be played, etc, etc. I do think that the Cubs have enough talent to win the NL Central. Hopefully, they can at least win a playoff series with these moves as a basis.
by Tangled Up In Blue on Feb 3, 2009 11:22 AM CST up reply actions
Bruce Miles recently clarified...
…that Wood would NOT have signed a one-year deal. Kerry mentioned that he would more out of exasperation about being asked the question than anything. I don’t think it was ever a realistic option.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
He was being an athlete saying the right thing as he was leaving town.
I’m surprised anyone took that at face value.
I believe Wood
In part because I think that was the substance of the discussion he and Hendry had after the season. Wood wanted more than a one-year deal, Hendry freed him to go looking for it, and had Wood not found it, he would have come back to the Cubs for a season.
My suspicions, anyway, but I think I remember some reporting to that effect.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
If it is the case...
…then I apologize. I was under the impression that Wood would have negotiated a one-year deal to stay with the Cubs.
Just to be clear, I don’t think this off-season was as bad as some here do. I think some of the moves have been questionable.
by Tangled Up In Blue on Feb 3, 2009 1:52 PM CST up reply actions
Are you sure Wood insisted on a 3-year deal?
Because he signed a 2-year deal with Cleveland.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Feb 4, 2009 1:26 PM CST up reply actions
It was two years with a "vesting option" for a third year...
…at $20.5 million. He’ll earn another $11 million if he makes the third year. I think that was probably too rich for Hendry’s blood.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
That should be too rich for anyone's blood
$30M is too much to pay for any closer, no matter how good they are.
He has to finish 55 games in one season to get the option year.
I think he finished that many in 2008, but I don’t think that the Indians are going to be putting up as many save chances as the 2008 Cubs. That’s not 55 appearances – it’s 55 games finished.
That being said, I’m just pointing out that, while BLou has repeatedly claimed that Wood “insisted” on a 3-year deal from the Cubs, he ultimately signed for 2 guaranteed years.
I am aware that Wood’s comment that he would have taken a 1-year deal should be taken with a shaker of salt. I’m not aware that he ever issued an ultimatum that it was 3 years, or he was walking and taking Cleveland’s 2-year deal.
Moreover, I can guarantee that the Cubs could have gotten him for less than the Indians did. It’s pretty likely that 2 years, $8M per would have gotten the job done.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Feb 4, 2009 3:42 PM CST up reply actions
Can you really guarantee that?
Unless you’re Kerry’s agent, I don’t see how you can. There may be some semantics in play here, too. Kerry and his agent may have defined a “three-year deal” as a two-year deal with an option. I mean, they knew his injury history as well as anyone.
And, again going back to the Cubs Convention, Hendry made a specific mention of Kerry’s injury history there, which leads me to believe that, as much as he liked Kerry as a person, he’d just reached his limit in dealing with all of Woody’s missed playing time.
Don’t get me wrong, I would’ve liked to see Kerry come back, too. But I just don’t think it was in the cards.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
I don't like this...
…phrase: “dismantle a 97 win team.” No team—-no team ever—-simply reproduces a past season in the next. And we all know that the baseball gods are +-10 on any record. …We needed to go more lefty, and Hendry has dutifully complied with the wishes of a HOF manager. – TL
Let me preface this by saying I think we've improved this off-season
But your comment is pretty ridiculous.
Look no further than the 2008 world champion Phillies for your counterpoint, or the Red Sox of 2007-2008, or the Yankees throughout the early 00’s. None of those teams made major changes to their rosters between the years I mentioned.
You are correct that the Red Sox basically stood pat
for the 2008 season after winning the WS. I would also like to point out that they were passed by the Rays in 2008. The Red Sox went on to win the wild card but lost to the Rays in the ALCS.
The bottom line is the Red Sox pretty much brought back the same team after winning the WS but weren’t as good in 2008.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Feb 3, 2009 2:22 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think that's a fair analysis
Winning in the playoffs isn’t always something that happens to the best team. There’s a ton of luck involved, it’s a crapshoot once you get to October.
I mean, c’mon – they came within 2 runs of winning 1 game which would have gotten them to the World Series. That means they weren’t as good? Is World Series victories the sole metric by which you judge teams?
I don't think they were as good in the regular season either.
The Rays beat them both in the regular season and the playoffs.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Feb 3, 2009 3:05 PM CST up reply actions
Sure, the Rays beat them.
That doesn’t make the Rays a better team, necessarily.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I thought the Cubs were the better team
but the Dodgers beat them in the NLDS.
Nontheless, the Dodgers won and the Cubs went home.
Does it matter who is the better team or does it matter who wins?
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Feb 3, 2009 3:16 PM CST up reply actions
Obviously, it matters who wins.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I'm confused.
When did we start talking about the All-Star game?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 3, 2009 8:31 PM CST up reply actions
I think that's 100% due to the injuries of Becket and Ortiz
…and the mid-season loss of Ramirez, which no one could have predicted.
And it doesn’t change my other counterpoint, the 2008 Phillies, who stayed more or less the same and did satisfy your metric of choice here (Won_World_Series=Y).
Also you're very focused on the Rays here
The Rays clearly got significantly better between 2007 and 2008. You can just as easily chalk it up to that.
That's exactly why standing pat isn't the best strategy, in my opinion.
Other teams make changes to unseat last year division champion.
If a team wants to stay on top (whether they won a divison, league or WS) changes need to be made every year.
That’s why I think staying the same = going backwards.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Feb 3, 2009 3:21 PM CST up reply actions
"Dismantle"
I will agree that we needed to go more lefty. I will also agree that if a team isn’t getting better it is getting worse. What I fail to agree with is the thought that anything but a few tweeks needed to be made to last year’s roster in order to field a competitive team this year.
Dismantle was obviously too strong of a word to use, as Hendry has done anything resembling a dismantling of last year’s team. As stated above, I agree with some of the moves, or at least the reasoning behind some of the moves, Hendry is making. Just not sure if getting rid of some of the more valuable pieces we had, number one being DeRosa, will make the ’09 version better than the ’08 team.
by Tangled Up In Blue on Feb 3, 2009 1:50 PM CST up reply actions
I agree with the concern about DeRo
But I would argue Hendry came a good bit short of “dismantling” the team. He traded several marginal players, traded DeRo and let Wood go.
If you had wanted (for some reason) to blow up the team, you would have also traded Lee, given San Diego whatever they wanted for Peavy, shopped Marshall and Harden, etc.
Volume does not always equal significance. These are tweaks.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Let me flip these numbers around a bit
in terms of roster space/playing time equivalents:
Pie 2.6/0.4 vs. Gathright 0.6/0.8 = lose 2 WARP, lose $0.4 M
Wood 2.9/10 vs. Gregg 1.9/4.2 = lose 1 WARP, gain 5.8 M
Marquis 1.5/9 vs. Heilman 1.3/1.6 = lose 0.2 WARP, gain 7.4 M
(of course, WARP probably treats Heilman as a decent reliever, not a poor starter)
Blanco vs. Bako = wash
Cedeno 0.8/0.8 vs. Miles 0.4/2.2 = lose 0.4 WARP, lose 1.4 M
DeRosa + Edmonds 4.4/10 vs. Bradley 3.9/9 = lose 0.5 WARP, gain 1 M
(estimating Edmonds 2009 salary at $4.5 M, makes a difference in the analysis)
So far, Cubs lose 4.1 WARP, gain $12.4 M.
I would consider Howry, Wuertz, Hill, Ward and Ceda as non-factors, since they would not be on the 25-man roster anyway (assuming one of Samardzija, Guzman, Hart, Patton, Wells could outpitch Wuertz in ST). That’s a loss, according to DGU, of 3.8 WARP and a gain of about $5.5 M.
Compare that to the acquisitions of Vizcaino and Stevens, gain 2 WARP, lose $3.9 M. I think it quite possible the Cubs will not have either player on their 25-man roster most of the year (trade Vizcaino, Stevens in AAA).
Putting those last two paragraphs together, the Cubs lose 1.8 WARP, gain $1.6 M.
My bottom line is losing 6 WARP, gaining $14 M. That’s different from DGU’s numbers above only in that I have estimated salaries for Edmonds and Ward. It’s still not a good tradeoff in the sense of dollars per win, and the team is worse.
However, putting it in terms of playing time equivalents reveals that the dropoff in terms of actual ABs and innings for the Cubs probably is minor. Particularly if the WARPs for Pie, DeRosa, and Edmonds are based on approximately full seasons out of all 3, which is not possible on the same club. If we add in additional WARP for more playing time going to Fontenot, Marshall, and a couple other young pitchers, and if Soriano plays more games this season, I would put the changes at a net wash.
My main point is, the money is saved. That can be accounted for prior to the season. The team may be just as good as last year, looking just at WARP.
So I would agree that if the money is spent on another player, perhaps at the trade deadline, the net effect will be clearly positive. But even if the money is not spent, I think we’re pretty close to last year. And I would have been more negative prior to seeing DGU’s analysis and playing around with the numbers.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
by cubzfan on Feb 3, 2009 10:53 AM CST reply actions 3 recs
Rec'd
Yeah, we need to play around with playing time numbers. Fortunately the full PECOTA cards should be out and help when we know the final roster and can talk about final report cards.
Let’s talk about Aaron Heilman and Sean Marshall, for example, to illustrate more what you’re talking about with playing time. PECOTA expects Heilman to be a reliever and Marshall to be a swingman – for good reason, that’s what they’ve been. But eyeballing things on Marshall, I think he’ll definitely surpass Marquis in WARP if he can log a full season’s starts. But, then, that’s the problem, assuming he is capable of doing that. Similarly with Heilman – it’s not as easy as adding a half a run to his ERA and adjusting for park effects. Does Heilman have the pitches to switch to a starter or not? PECOTA’s not going to answer that question for us.
So, trying to parse this gets complicated – but I think it remains more interesting at this point than wondering if Jake Peavy could be traded for players x, y, and z.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
In short,
yes. But mostly due to the likely decreased level of competition. Not only is the Central shaping up to be woeful, but it looks like 75% MLB teams look happy to sit this season out.
In other words, we've got them right where we want them.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
I wonder if the 2008 Cubs overachieved in the regular season.
Looking back, there seemed to be a magic surrounding the Cubs, particularly at Wrigley Field.
From the very beginning of the first playoff game, it felt different. It seemed like all of the magic disappeared.
The bottom line is the Cubs won 97 games in the regular season and 0 games in the playoffs. What made it even worse is they won 0 games the year before in the playoffs.
Jim Hendry could have done what a lot of teams have done this off-season, next to nothing. He made the changes he thought would not only get the Cubs to the playoffs, but actually win a game or two. (Gasp, maybe even a playoff series?)
My wish right now is for the season to actually start so the endless speculation and analyzing will stop and we can PLAY BALL! In just a few short days we will hear Pat Hughes say, The Chicago Cubs are on the air!
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Feb 3, 2009 10:55 AM CST reply actions 6 recs
Cold reality is that the 2008 Cubs were blessed with health and lot of quality years out of players
Law of averages says those two positives are doubtful to happen two years in a row.
This scares the hell out of me...
I don’t think we’re setup well if we sustain an injury to any of our key guys like Ramirez, Lee, Soriano, etc; I think that comes back to losing DeRosa.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Feb 3, 2009 2:22 PM CST up reply actions
Healthy quality years?
I am not sure that I would agree with those sentiments.
Soriano missed significant time as did Zambrano. Also, I don’t know that I see too many players who had “career years”, I would only put DeRosa and Dempster in that category.
If you take just those four together, I would say a regression to the mean would net about the same results, with more productivity from Soriano and Z, and less from Dempster and 2B
Eamus Ursuli!
Theriot had a career year too
As did Fontenot.
I agree completely that Theriot had a career year
but I completely disagree that Fontenot did
by philadelphiacub on Feb 4, 2009 9:37 AM CST up reply actions
So you expect a .900+ OPS again next year from Fontenot?
I just don’t see that happening. I’d expect somewhere in the .800-.825 range to be more reasonable. I’d love to be wrong on that one though.
I believe you are correct. Fontenot's
OPS was reflective of Lou’s usage. If LBR is the primary option at 2B, Lou will have him batting in situations he may not have seen in 2008. Tougher matchups should equal a lower OPS. That said, I believe LBR will thrive in 2009.
Maybe not .900 again,
but I think .825-.850 is not unrealistic, especially considering that’s waht Derosa’s was last year (.857 in much more playing time). Also, all of Derosa’s projections are below .800 this year, so I still feel the correct choice was made, especially considering the $$ freed up allowed the Cubs to sign Bradley
by philadelphiacub on Feb 4, 2009 11:01 AM CST up reply actions
Keep in mind that DeRosa's projections
are bringing down that OPS for park effect and league effect.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 4, 2009 4:25 PM CST up reply actions
Well, Fontenot got less than 300 PAs, mostly against RHP...
…so I’m not sure we can say one way or the other that it was a career year.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
I suspect he'll get more PA...
… but still will play mostly vs RHP.
Career vs. RHP: .298/.379/.473 in 464 PA. I don’t see any reason he can’t put up those numbers (852 OPS) if they sit him against LHP again.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Yeah, I agree.
Fontenot could (and should) be good to great against RHP, and he plays a mean 2B. The question remains, however, can Aaron Miles essentially platoon with Fontenot at 2B and backup Theriot at SS and backup Aramis at 3B without breaking down. (Obviously, this is all assuming Hoffpauir stays on the roster and Hendry doesn’t make a move for another infield utility dude.)
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Theriot hasn't been around long enough to have a "career" year
The sample size is too small to determine whether this will be an above-average season for him or not . . .
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Or 2008 was an above-average season for him or not, I should say
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
+1 and Rec'd
A lot went right in the regular season last season and, despite how weak the rest of the division looks on paper, it seems unlikely things will be quite so easy this year. (Although as soon as I type that, I think of some of the rough parts of last season – the early slump on the road, that horrible stretch in early Sept.)
In any case, even if a little less goes right in the regular season this year, I think the Cubs still stand a decent chance of making the postseason. Then if a little more can go right there, well, at least we can say there was some progress.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Thank God
games are played on the field and not on spreadsheets.
yea, cause that'd be pretty boring to watch...
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Feb 3, 2009 11:07 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
What if it was a giant spreadsheet...
…that covered the whole field? That would be pretty cool, no?
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
no.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Feb 3, 2009 11:18 AM CST up reply actions
I guess their cleats would keep punching through the paper, eh?
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Or cracking the computer display.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Feb 3, 2009 11:22 AM CST up reply actions
Ah, I was thinkin' more of a giant piece of green and white paper...
…but, yeah, I guess lowering a massive flat-screen monitor over the field would present logistical difficulties as well. Perhaps they could wear ice skates while they play.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
I think I would worry about electrocution...
Booties on the other hand would work nicely. And even Milton couldn’t get angry while wearing booties. ’Cause really, when is the last time you saw a man assault someone else while wearing booties?
by CubsWin!Oregon on Feb 3, 2009 12:40 PM CST up reply actions
I saw a poodle wearing booties assault someone once.
But I digress…
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Nice job with the research, DGU.
From what I can gather, superficially speaking, this year’s team appears a little worse. But, statistically speaking, the team either breaks even or is actually a little better. Being an optimist, I’m going to go with the latter. I’m looking forward to seeing what this team can do.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
I still think we'll come to regret
losing DeRosa, Woody and Blanco. At best, this team is equivalent to last years. But I don’t feel it.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
The Blanco thing makes no sense to me
Especially when we are paying Bako the same amount that Blanco got in San Diego. I realize that back-up catcher isn’t the most important position, but if Lou doesn’t have faith in Bako, poor Geo is going to get run into the ground.
Let the Blaine Gabbert era begin.
One thing to consider as a possibility with Blanco -
is that the Cubs may feel like his injuries will not allow him to take enough of the load from Soto. I don’t know. It does seem like the lefty bat thing is probably more likely.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 3, 2009 3:36 PM CST up reply actions
agreed
I actually think the LHB backup catcher is a real thing. On some level we need to think of C as a platoon position. In which case it makes sense to have a LHB catcher. Sure, Blanco’s #s are better than Bako’s, but he was not used to maximize Soto’s offense, as Bako could be.
Eamus Ursuli!
Yabbut...
… does that mean that Soto ONLY rests against right-handed pitching? That doesn’t make sense, necessarily.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Paul Bako career #s v. LHP
.179/.227/.295
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 3, 2009 8:32 PM CST up reply actions
Paul Bako career #s v. RHP
.240/.317/.321
What’s your point? He can’t hit RHP, either.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Lol
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 4, 2009 8:59 AM CST up reply actions
just a magnificent signing
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
I hit I am not sure
I too feel letting Blanco go and DeRosa go was huge. Yea, I know a backup catcher, but Hank was valuable and will be missed. Bako will be automatic hitting grounders to second on popping out to short.
DeRosa was just dumb, why not have him for his last year of a contract? And a favorable one at that.
Who freaking knows with this squad, last year Cubs had big years from a lot of there players, who will step up this year.
I for one would love to see Soriano play 155 games and see what numbers he can put up.
"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"
I was wondering the same thing...
…PECOTA must really like Pie. Something more in line with Gathright’s 0.6 is what I would have expected.
"...the internet is not something you just dump something on. It's not a truck. It's a series of tubes." - Sen. Ted Stevens
See this is the problem with using projected WARP numbers like this
My guess is that Pecota is projecting more playing time for Pie than Gathright.
Explanation
Felix Pie .274/.333/.435 in 492 PA
Joey Gathright .266/.337/.312 in 210 PA
So it’s both the quality of performance and the quantity of PAs.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 3, 2009 3:45 PM CST up reply actions
And it's very unlikely that Pie would have put up those PAs in Chicago...
Unless (a) Fukudome REALLY fell off, or (b) Bradley or Soriano was hurt for a REALLY long time.
Back to the margin for error/injury point from above...
Soriano’s been injured both seasons as a Cub and Bradley’s been injured… every season in his career. Dome was injured the year or two before becoming a Cub and may not be a ML caliber player.
I like our starting OF a lot, but stack two errors/injuries and things look ugly: Hoffpauir/Snyder – Gathright/RJ – Remainng Starter.
If Pie was going to bring back a major piece, it made a lot of sense to trade him, but if we just dumped him to make Lou smiley or to give Pie a shot, it could be a costly move.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 3, 2009 7:17 PM CST up reply actions
That's not 492 AB worth...
Unless Bradley gets REALLY hurt.
That said, I agree that trading Pie could come back to haunt us.
Well, I agree on this point
that Pie wasn’t going to get 492 PAs in Chicago w/o a disaster for one of the starting 3 and probably also a minor injury to RJ, forcing Lou to go to Pie.
But I think had Pie been kept, he could have played the 2008 Fontenot role, helping to step up when Soriano and Bradley and maybe even Dome needed a break.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 3, 2009 8:58 PM CST up reply actions
Let me also add that I have hope Gathright
can get back to what he did in 2007 if we need him.
I hope more that we don’t need to find out.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 3, 2009 8:59 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed...
In any case, unless Miles repeats his career year and Gathright repeats his career year in 2007, we’re much less deep this year.
Gathright stunk in 2007, too.
He was 9 for 17 in stolen bases, and put up an 88 OPS+.
Even in his “good” year of 07, he was, in every important respect, a measurable step down from Felix Pie.
And then the bottom fell out in 2008.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Feb 4, 2009 1:37 PM CST up reply actions
I agree completely.
There was absolutely no reason to trade Felix Pie, and the Pie-imitation the Cubs signed in his stead is objectively worse, more expensive, and older.
The “Lou wouldn’t play him” argument is insane. Hendry is the GM. He can occasionally pull rank.
Besides, Lou hates Fukudome, too.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Feb 4, 2009 1:35 PM CST up reply actions
Based on what Hendry said at the Cubs Convention...
…he agreed with Lou’s assessment of Pie. Therefore, the “Lou wouldn’t play him” holds up, because there was no one willing or able to persuade him otherwise. I’m pretty sure Crane Kenney wouldn’t last long in the Cubs clubhouse.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Then Hendry is wrong, too.
The context of “Lou would not play him” is as a defense to the decision to pawn Pie off on the O’s for essentially nothing.
In this forum, the typical defense of Hendry’s decision to give Felix Pie away reads: “He had to trade Pie for nothing, because Pie was valueless as a Cub, because Lou would not play him.”
That argument fails for two reasons. First, Lou is Hendry’s subordinate. If Hendry liked Pie, he could have forced the issue.
Secondly, as you note, Hendry wanted Pie gone, too, and was willing to get very,
very little in return.
So we’re left with a completely circular argument.
“Hendry was justified in trading Pie, because Pie was valueless, because Pie sat on the bench, because Hendry wanted it that way.”
That argument is silly – it would apply to any player! “We have to trade A-Rod, because he’s not going to get any at-bats, because I’m going to leave him on the bench for absolutely no reason other than my own petty grudges.”
Circular.
Felix Pie has excelled at every level of the Cubs minor league system. He finished 2008 on an absolutely ridiculous tear that lasted a couple of months at AAA.
He plays a position of great scarcity, both in the Cubs’ organization and in MLB as a whole. Power-hitting, fast centerfielders come along almost never.
Moreover, he was cost-controlled! Put simply, I would wager a great deal of money that Felix Pie’s cost-controlled years will last longer than the rest of Lou Piniella’s career in the Cubs’ dugout.
The Cubs would lose absolutely nothing by keeping Felix Pie as a reserve outfielder and using him as a defensive replacement for all OF positions and a spot starter.
Instead, they chose to spend more money on a speedy reserve outfielder who absolutely sucks. Ced Landrum 2.0?
I’m a huge fan of Lou and Hendry, and I like to think that I’m judicious in my criticism. That being said, the Felix Pie deal hurt the Cubs organization in almost every conceivable manner. It was unnecessary, it was counterproductive, it cost money.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Feb 4, 2009 3:33 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Hey, you're preaching to the converted...
…because I would’ve loved to see Felix stick around. I remember last year at this time I was looking forward to seeing a Soriano-Pie-Fukudome outfield. I even made it my sig line. But I guess I’ve just reached the acceptance stage at this point. I would, however, be curious to hear Hendry’s response if you were to ever to present that argument to him, because you do make a strong case.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Pie is not a power hitting CF
If and when he ever makes the adjustment of sacrificing power in order to make contact in the majors whatever power he has now will disappear. If he doesn’t make the adjustment then he won’t be more than a defensive sub. I venture to say that one of the reasons why Pie didn’t get more at-bats in 2008 was because they realized from 2007 that he needed to adjust his swing to be succesful. There were even reports of him working on it in the winter leagues. When it became apparent that he had come into 2008 with the same swing and that he was having the same troubles then he was destined to be sent down.
Fact of the matter is Felix can’t even get a job in the winter leagues. Think about it. Please. If someone has made a mistake with him, it’s not just Lou and Hendry.
It's too bad
Torii Hunter and Curtis Granderson never learned to sacrifice power in order to make contact – their careers could have been much better.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 4, 2009 4:29 PM CST up reply actions
Your post makes no sense.
Pie shortened up his swing in his AAA stint this year. He stunk at first, and then spent about 2 months hitting .400 with power.
“Can’t get a job in the winter leagues”? Please. That’s silly.
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My Thoughts... For Whatever It's Worth
Piniella would not have played Pie. Period. He tried, sent him to the minors. Hendry probably told Lou to try again. Lou did, sent him back to the minors. Hendry probably said try one more time. Lou even went down last off-season to spend a couple of weeks with him and Perry. Tried the first, what, 6 weeks of the season. Sent him back down again. This addresses your “subordinate” comment.
Secondly, Pie was out of options with no spot on the team. He failed. Whether it was Pie 100% and 0% Cubs, 50/50, 0/100, or everything in between, the end result was that Pie did not perform. Period. Being out of options without a role led him to be traded. Other teams knowing that this would be the eventuality means give next to nothing for a guy that’s about to be DFA’d. We’re lucky we got what we got!
Lastly, I think Hendry and Piniella continue to figure out how to work with one another. I think they are doing a great job. They’re doing something about the dreaded 0-9 performance. That’s what I like seeing.
Are the Cubs better at this point? Right now? I think the answer is slightly no. Should it be enough to win the division? Barring the “I” word, yes. Will getting Peavy and Aurilia do it for me – absolutely.
Pinella does not make roster moves.
Piniella doesn’t send anyone to the minors. Hendry does.
I have no idea how this addresses any “subordinate” comment. Hendry had every right to tell Lou that Pie was on his 25-man roster, and that he expected him to get X starts/AB per week.
Regarding options - we are carrying Joey Goddamn Gathright on our 25-man roster. Gathright is the Ghost of Worst Cast Pie’s Future…. in 4 years, if everything goes bad for Felix, he’ll be Gathright. We had room for Felix Pie on the 25-man.
Regarding “he failed” — the man had 83 at-bats last year. As a 23-year old. Do you have any idea how little that is? Or how young he is? Or that the Cubs largely controlled his salary for the next 6 years?
Have you seen what Pie did at AAA last year? He rebuilt his swing. He hit about .100 for about 3 weeks while doing so. And then he resumed being the best player in the PCL for about 8 weeks.
And then he re-joined the Cubs, played in 13 games, and continued to hit — .300 / .391 / .450 in his call-up.
When Geo Soto hit the crap out of the ball in his 2007 September call-up, did the Cubs crap their pants in recognizing that he was out of options and trade him for a couple of nobodies? No — they put him on the 2008 25-man and told him to go win the catcher job!
When your top prospect centerfielder destroys AAA as a 22 and 23 year old, hitting for both average and power, and then smacks the ball around the yard in a late-season cup of coffee, you do not look at his 83 at-bats and decide that he is washed up, trade him for absolutely nothing, and then trade the nothing you recieved for Aaron Heilman!!
The defenses of this move on this site are absolutely mind-blowing. Pie may turn out to be a bust. But there was no downside to keeping him, and there is an excellent chance that he will turn into a plus, cost-controlled centerfielder for the next 6 years – and a decent chance that he will turn into a star centerfielder.
Put simply, trading Pie for peanuts has absolutely no upside, and has the potential to be the absolute nadir of Jim Hendry’s GM career. The cavalcade of pollys rushing to his defense with circular and nonsensical arguments is disheartening. Seriously.
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by D98 on Feb 5, 2009 11:40 AM CST up reply actions 4 recs
Rec'd
Well said.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Rec'd
you did open my eyes some to this move, but I am in favor of him being moved, just not for what little was received.
Comparing Geo Soto tho is a stretch, as you look for defense in a catcher and offense is a bonus.
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
You're right that Piniella doesn't make trades.
But it’s clear that his disdain for Pie forced Hendry to trade him.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al Yellon on Feb 5, 2009 1:17 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
And when Hendry gets in "manager-pleasing" mode....
….we wind up with Neifi Perez and Ramon Martinez.
It is Jim Hendry’s job to build the roster, not to cater to every whim of his field manager.
As General Manager, it is also Jim Hendry’s job to overrule his field manager and set him straight if the two are at loggerheads over a fundamental, organization-level issue like “the proper use and career path of the best outfielder developed by the farm system in several decades.”
The only possible takeaways here are
1. that Hendry agrees with Lou’s assessment that Pie is worthless, or
2. that Hendry disagrees with this assessment, but rolled over for his field manager the way he did for Dusty Baker.
Neither one of those scenarios are acceptable.
If it’s the first, well, Pie had 83 at-bats as a 23-year old, and had shown improvement in the end of 2008. To completely cut bait on him with no compelling reason to do so is what losing organizations do. Joey Gathright is not an acceptable substitute on the 25-man roster, and he costs substantially more money.
If it’s the second, then we have an ineffectual GM who is unable or unwilling to take on a necessary part of his job. Which would explain, in part, Hendry’s reticence to do what needed to be done in cashiering Dusty Baker after the 2004 season, and especially after the 2005 season.
I understand that this offseason was driven by the compelling need to limit payroll while covering up for the fallout of the horrific contract given to Kosuke Fukudome last year.
Dealing with the raises built into the typical Hendry back-loaded contract, while simultaneously trying to add a legitimate MLB RF, could not have been easy.
In that sense, I can understand and accept the loss of DeRosa and Wood — even though I chafe at the terrible return for DeRosa and the refusal to even offer arbitration to Wood. (If he’d accepted, we’d have Wood on a 1-year deal. If he rejected, we’d have another #1 pick. No downside.)
I cannot, however, understand the decision to give up on Felix Pie.
Would Theo Epstein have given Jacoby Ellsbury for nothing if Terry Francona insisted on playing Coco Crisp ahead of him in 2007? Of course not!!
Now compare Ellsbury’s minor league stats with Felix Pie’s.
Sometimes, this organization absolutely baffles me.
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by D98 on Feb 5, 2009 1:52 PM CST up reply actions
Oh, I agree with you.
Hendry’s done a good job, in general, but he gives too much leeway to his “name” managers in letting them construct their roster.
Now, that said, I think Lou knows how to do that better than Dusty. But he still has his quirks and pets and (large) doghouse, which is why Scott Eyre wasn’t a Cub last postseason and Bob Howry was.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
And I agree with that.
I’m definitely a fan of Lou – probably more so than I should be. The roster construction has been substantially better – especially the bench – with the exception of the useless (and unused) 12th pitcher, of course.
And in general, I like the work that Hendry has done. Except for the span between the Nomar deal and the end of the 2006 season, which I’ll refer to as Hendry’s “blue period.”
(i.e. – “Sign nothing but second basemen and middle relievers! Ignore all top tier talent on the market, but outbid everyone for the bargain bin guys! If we aim for ‘slightly above average’, this will work out somehow! Ooh, Freddie Bynum is available!”)
I just get annoyed at the fans’ unwillingness to accept when the Cubs have made roster moves that hurt the team.
The DeRosa and Wood moves, I can grudgingly accept. Hendry painted himself into a corner with the Fukudome Folly, (but was bailed out for a time with the Edmonds Gambit) and now he had to get Bradley to compensate. And that money had to come from somewhere.
But the Pie situation is a self-inflicted wound, with absolutely no upside. And people still defend it.
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by D98 on Feb 5, 2009 2:11 PM CST up reply actions
That 2006 "blue period" was dictated, I suspect, by Baker.
I cannot imagine Hendry wanting a guy like Freddie Bynum otherwise.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
WIth a healthy dose of MacPhail, I assume.
The decision to sit out the Beltran sweepstakes, coupled with the mad pursuit of “CF” Alfonso Soriano 2 years later, offering a contract identical to Beltrans’s to an older, more flawed player who had never played CF before…. well, that seems like a bit too much of a coincidence for my tastes.
I completely agree that, for whatever reason, Hendry gave Dusty carte blanche to build the bench as Dusty saw fit.
And Dusty wanted second basemen. Lots and lots of them. I think that at one point in 2005 we were carrying Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot, Enrique Wilson, Neifi Perez, Jose Macias, Todd Walker and Jerry Hairston - and in 2006 they added Freddie Bynum and Tony Womack, and got Ronny Cedeno some reps over there!
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by D98 on Feb 6, 2009 2:08 PM CST up reply actions
There was one game where...
… they had five 2B in the game at the same time — can’t remember the exact game, but IIRC it was Womack, Bynum, Perez, Hairston and one of the others you mentioned, all playing in the game because Dusty had run out of players in extra innings.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
There is another possible explanation
Jim was only going to take the bet on one of two players – Felix Pie or Kosuke Fukudome. In terms of who was more likely to help the team in 2009, Dome was the right choice. PECOTA gives Dome the edge by a bit.
Ideally, Pie should have brought back more in trade than Dome, too. There were two problems with that, though. 1) The CF market was a buyers’ market. 2) Lou had been too obvious in his disdain of Pie for Jim to leverage the market.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 5, 2009 3:37 PM CST up reply actions
Fukudome is/was utterly unmoveable.
That contract is an albatross. A Chan ho park-level blunder.
There is no way that hendry could have moved it. He couldn’t even move lee’s contract, and that’s similar money for a guy who, while fading fast, is at least a legit major leaguer.
I can’t imagine that it was a choice between dome and pie.
The choice was between dome and gathright. Did lou have some history with gathright in Tampa?
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There was some talk at the beginning of the off-season
that there were some people interested in taking part of Dome’s contract.
I wonder if Hendry chose to give Pie a chance, rather than stick him as a backup option.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 6, 2009 8:06 AM CST up reply actions
Was Hendry trying to move DLee's contract?
I never got the impression that was the case.
And, just out of curiousity, were you skeptical of Fukudome from the get-go? Because I can’t recall reading anyone predicting he would struggle to the extent that he did.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
I certainly was not skeptical of Fukudome.
It’s turned out to be a bad contract, and it caused us to lose Kerry Wood. I didn’t see it coming, that’s for sure.
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Well, two questions then.
1) If you agree that Fukudome looked good coming out of Japan, how can you blame Jim Hendry for signing him?
2) Is it really accurate to call it a “bad contract” only one year in? Couldn’t Dome still rebound this year and even moreso in the later years of the deal to make it at least a decent contract? And what if that happens and, God forbid, Woody repeatedly goes down with injuries in an Indians uniform? Wouldn’t that make it much, much less a bad contract?
Wait, that’s more than two questions, isn’t it?
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
It's a good sign that PECOTA likes Dome so much
because PECOTA takes into account second half slides, if I recall correctly.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 6, 2009 1:36 PM CST up reply actions
Two Answers
1. I’d never seen Fukudome play. Ever. How could I possibly have been skeptical of him before I saw him play?! I’m willing to give everybody a fair shake, and I’m not going to be negative for the sake of being negative.
That being said, I assume that the Cubs saw him play before giving him $48 million dollars. So this one’s on Jim and the scouting department.
2. Yes, we can call it a bad contract at this point. He was paid $12M for about $1-2M worth of production – and that’s being generous. Which means that he’d need to start hitting at about a $17-18M clip in order to make this worthwhile.
And I think that we can all agree that Fukudome just isn’t going to turn into an $18M superstar in the next two seasons…. we hope that he can hit .260 with 10 HR or so, but I’m not even confident in that, and I don’t think that anyone’s going to be betting the house on him doing any better.
Moreover, the opportunity costs of the Fukudome deal are just sad. Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa had to be shown the door.
We now know that the Fukudome deal was made for two reasons – first the Cubs hoped that he would develop into a legit MLB corner OF, and, well, having passed on so many corner OFs in previous seasons, there really weren’t many good ones on the market at the time.
Those are both legit reasons for taking the gamble, but when it fails so massively, the decision-makers have to be held accountable.
Finally, if Woody gets hurt at some point in the next two years, it will have absolutely not one single darned thing in the world to do with the fact that Fukudome’s deal is horrific.
The Cubs still owe Fukudome $38-odd million dollars. And he’s well into his 30’s. This contract – already so terrible – is far more likely to get worse than it is to get better.
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by D98 on Feb 6, 2009 1:52 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think DeRosa was sent away because of Dome.
He was sent away because of Fontenot.
The one nice thing about Dome’s 2008 value is that he hit when we needed it – when Fontenot and Edmonds were not providing value to the club. Their productivity mirrored each other for the most part.
As for your slider analysis – do you have comment on this piece which suggests he didn’t get pitched differently?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 6, 2009 2:32 PM CST up reply actions
I think his BABIP was poor...
…because his contact was, more often than not, very poor.
He wasn’t getting robbed very often at the end of last year. He was hitting easy bouncers to infielders, on the occasions that he made contact.
The piece suggests that he wasn’t pitched differently, but provides no data on that point. I could be wrong, but I’d bet that even if the pitch selection is similar, the location of those pitches was not – and even more to the point, that the pitch sequences were not.
Specifically, I’m pretty certain that Fukudome developed a bit of a problem recognizing sliders and outside fastballs, especially after he’d been busted inside – that the league figured this out, and that Dome couldn’t adjust to his own personal “out pitch”.
For the last few months of last year, you could back him off the plate, and then watch him pinwheel into the ground chasing an outside pitch.
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by D98 on Feb 6, 2009 4:26 PM CST up reply actions
and
having one of the smallest front offices, and smaller scouting staffs currently is a reason for such flaws
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
Better contract gamble
A position player who does not have a history of injuries, or a starter turned closer with a history of back and arm injuries? People forget his back was injured in High School, and his arm ws worked to death in high school, how long until it falls off again?
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
Fukudome has a history of injuries.
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by D98 on Feb 6, 2009 1:53 PM CST up reply actions
as much
as Wood?
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
I'm not sure this analysis is particularly valid
For starters I’m not convinced this is the right statistic for the job since it’s partially a function of projected playing time.
But the main problem is this: Are we going to have a 22 man roster this year? Because you’ve totaled the wins of 11 players, not counting Ceda, (16 Wins above replacment total) and compared it to 8 players.
Where are the other 3 players?
If you’re going to use WARP, you should really be comparing the total Wins above replacement for all 25 members of the 2008 roster and comparing it to the total WARP for the entire 25 members of the 2009 roster. Those missing 3 players will almost certainly close some if not all of that 6-win gap.
Another (better?) way would be to use a lineup calculator to project the total number of runs, and use the Pecota projections on our pitching staff to calculate runs allowed. Then extrapolate the total wins from the Pythagorean record. Or just wait for the more complexly calculated Pecota team projections.
Just to support my point a bit here:
2008 Cubs starting lineup max projected runs per game: 5.582
2009 Cubs starting lineup max projected runs per game (using 2008 statistics): 5.816
This is using Baseball Musing’s lineup calculator and letting it optimize the lineup, for fairness sake. Using a more realistic lineup the difference is actually greater, almost a half a run. In other words, this lineup should score 50-80 more runs than last season.
This team is appreciably better than last season’s. People seem to blinded by the sentimental losses of man-crushees Wood, Derosa, and (inexplicably) Blanco, as well as the non-baseball-related dislike of Bradley to see this.
Here's the problem.
Of course the starting lineup is better – we’ve got Milton Freaking Bradley.
I’m trying to get a sense for the whole club, particularly its depth on the bench and in the rotation. My sense is that the Cubs’ bench has gotten a lot weaker and this is particularly a problem for a starting lineup whose 3B, SS, & RF all have nagging injury issues. But as you also point out – we’re missing a few players, which is why I called this a progress report. The strength of the bench is a whole lot different if we sign Alex Cintron or if we trade for Mark Teahen.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 3, 2009 3:54 PM CST up reply actions
But you've left 3 bench spots empty
Doing that essentially assumes 3 replacement-level players, which we will do better than, even if we don’t acquire anyone else by opening day.
Where are Guzman, Hoffpauir, and, say, Hart?
Saying there’s a 6 win difference between the teams is extremely misleading if you don’t plug in the people we’d use if we had to play tomorrow.
I haven't been clear in my aims then.
I’m comparing the players leaving with the players coming in. If I was going to compare the 2008 team to the 2009 team entirely, I’d need to compare the PECOTA projections for all the 25-man players with the actual 2008 WARPs – not just Guzman and Hoffpauir, but Aramis and DLee, too.
I never said there was a 6 win difference – I said that PECOTAs projections saw 16 wins leaving and 10 coming back. I really didn’t make nearly as much of a case as you thought I was making. I wanted to start a conversation about this, because fankly, I haven’t made up my mind.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 3, 2009 7:20 PM CST up reply actions
Some of this I answered above.
I’m trying to compare the players who left with the players who came back. If I had more time I would have included the PAs and IPs in those WARP scores (I may still do that).
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 3, 2009 3:49 PM CST up reply actions
A few points to add here
I get and completely respect what you’re trying to do, I’m just not sure this is the right tool for the job.
Here’s a few problems that come to mind:
- One of Heilman or Marshall will be our 5th starter, barring an unexpected move. Are the PECOTA projections taking this into account? My guess is no, which hurts the totaled WARP.
- You forgot about Angel Guzman completely, who was a non-contributor in 2008 and has essentially been added to the bullpen
- Barring another signing (Aurelia, etc) Hoffpauir will be added to the team in Ward’s role
- The Pie / Gathright example illustrates why using WARP is a big problem here. If Pie played on the 2009 Cubs there’s no way he’d get his projected 492 PA’s. Compare them at equal PA’s and the difference between them is a half of a win – that narrow that 6 win projected gap by 1.5 wins!
Much of this I answered above.
Let me add this – PECOTA is telling us what we could have had with Pie. There is, in fact, a way Pie could have gotten those PAs. We could have decided to play him. But we decided to upgrade in the OF instead of in the IF.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 3, 2009 7:24 PM CST up reply actions
This is why I love this site
so many angles and thoughts. The question you ask DGU is a valid one using a statistical modeling analysis. I would like the WARP on two years progressions to see any trends.
The question then is prediction models as deviations always go one way or another from the center for a year.
Wild card things. Derrick Lee. Is his performance due to injury issues still or age or both. Soriano, can he actually play the entire year? When he plays the Cubs won at .625 when he was out they won just above .500.
The fifth starter will that deviation be the same as Marquis or will Samardz ascend to a real starter?
Fukudome, since I am a big off season conditioning improvement guy will his regimen actually pay dividends and if so what does that mean?
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Great post
This is a question I have been asking myself constantly lately and it is nice to see some analysis on the subject, albeit speculation. I have really been questioning the moves lately, not because of the value given up, simply the odd returns we are getting. In most cases it is two-three minor leaguer’s with what seems to be limited upside. I am aware that the farm system need rebuilt, but I am not certain that plugging in these players is the way to do it. The number of changes on the roster seems unwarranted to a 97 win ball club.
HOWEVER, after the playoffs, I was screaming (as many of us where), to get rid of the whole team, I hate them all, bla bla bla. I remember saying to trade everyone except D lee and DeRo since they hit in the playoffs. Now, these statements were rash, wild and generally made in anger and astonishment of the collapse that had just taken place. Still, I suppose that some of these feelings should be remembered and decide that although the core of the team is still in place, a shake up like we have seen might be what the team needs. (it could also mean the team wins 70 games, but I highly doubt that)
Just sayin, lets remember how mad we all were at the end of the playoffs at the team…and yes I realize that the majority of the people we have lost didn’t play in those three disastrous games, but hey, shaking things up.
The returns on Hill, Pie, Cedeno and Wuertz weren't going to be great
Therefore I don’t understand all the puzzlement over the middling minor league prospects the Cubs received in return for any of these four players. Aaron Heilman has a good arm, is cheap and provides quality competition for the 5th starter spot.
Also, the moves Hendry has made telegraph the fact that he is aggressively managing payroll. Just like 28 other teams, the Yankees excluded.
I do agree with that
I honestly think Wuertz might have been the most productive, which isn’t saying much. Despite his inconsistencies, he did seem to keep his ERA down and could strand runners. I think the hopes of getting Peavy that we obviously greatly exaggerated put unfair expectations on the offseason for many of us fans.
I do want to complement the author on this post, but I also
want to say that all this PECOTA stuff is nothing more than MENTAL MASTURBATION. There is no way that any of us can predict how players will perform in 2009 versus 2008, and more importantly, if these moves will get us to the play-offs AND produce play-off victories.
Much of a season turns on injuries (or lack there of) and the health and momentum of the opponents you face in the play-offs (again, if we get there). I’ll place my bet that year #3 of Lou at the helm will yield better results. That has nothing to do with PECOTA.
"If it's obvious, it's obviously wrong." - a well known stock market guru
Yeah damn straight
what do those damn COMPUTERS know about baseball? It’s a game played by people not numbers!
People with hustle, spit, and gristle. People who play hard. People who may or may not have once played football in college.
Have the robots at PECOTA ever WATCHED a baseball game? There’s a game that happens between the lines that a robot with no heart could never understand.
And what good is a projection anyway, huh? There’s no sense in using a projection to evaluate whether something will turn out to be a good move or not. If I were GM I would make all decisions by flipping coins. After all, there’s no way to predict what will happen – the only way to evaluate is after the fact.
I mean really – what’s PECOTA ever done to prove they know what they’re talking about? Other than being almost uncannily right much of the time?
by Wreckard on Feb 3, 2009 3:34 PM CST up reply actions 5 recs
I think the most important # on this page
is that only 22% of BCBers who voted say the Cubs are improved in 2009 v 2008.
The lower that # gets, the better I feel about the upcoming season. PLAY BALL!
"If it's obvious, it's obviously wrong." - a well known stock market guru
I'm a saber-metrics believer...
so I do put great stock in fancy new stat analysis tools, and I use PECOTA. I think that the reactionary anti-Saber folks are idiots.
But as Bill James said, these new metrics are just additional tools to help us try and capture the overall picture. They aren’t panaceas to solve the problem of predicting the next season, nor or they replacements for the other tools we like to use to analzye. Hell, there’s enough debate AMONG sabermetricians about the different metrics to show that they aren’t some some hard science that offers conclusive answers.
In the end, things like PECOTA and other metrics rely on the assumption that past performance is indicative of future performance. While this seems to be true more than not, there are all sorts of things that can interfere (like injuries, headcase flare-ups ala Travis Hafner, etc.). From what I gathered, that was at least part of what LACarl was getting at.
We can project all we want (and I like to…which is why I’m not totally thrilled about this offseason). But there’s a reason we actually play the games…
by CubsWin!Oregon on Feb 3, 2009 6:52 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Well said, however
Watch any Injury Attorney TV Ad and they’ll take you past results dont guarantee future outcomes
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Yes! Don't get me wrong...
I am not against PECOTA or any of these other tools. it just seems that many younger/newer fans are slaves to data and they use data tools totally to decide if they like a trade or what the team is doing. I guess because I am in my 50s and had to grow up without the use of a computer (therefore relying more on my brains and instincts) and still put some weight on those talents.
It seems younger fans want to put 90-100% of their decision on whether we are heading in the right direction or not on DATA DUMPING. I think this is taking away a big/fun part of the game and arguing about trades, etc… The data stuff can be 50+% if you want, but still have instincts and think “outside the box” when possible.
In the investment world, we make our biggest scores on variant perceptions—seeing things that are not in the current trends. This is not possible by looking at computer models. So my point is, the GM who can find the variant perception (the trade the outperforms expectations) is the best GM out there.
I will now get off my blog soap box…
"If it's obvious, it's obviously wrong." - a well known stock market guru
by LAcarl519 on Feb 3, 2009 9:13 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Variant perceptions are great if you're a GM
And I hope that Hendry can be that outside-of-the-box thinker. I feel he has been this year.
But we aren’t GMs – we’re not the ones making the decisions. We’re simply reacting to the decisions that have been made and trying to make sense of them.
And in that way, what DGU is doing here is absolutely commendable. I’m sorry, but as a casual fan you can’t just look at an entire off-season of moves and say with any degree of certainty or authority that “yep, we’ve gotten better” or “nope, we’ve gotten worse.” There are so many net gains and losses that trying to do it with your gut is just going to end up with opinions that come out of your ass. I don’t really care if you use PECOTA, Chone, or whatever but at least DGU is trying to evaluate this based on something constructive and proven. And if I’ve been critical at all it was a genuine attempt to do so constructively, because I think it’s a great idea, even if I disagree with his execution of it.
This off-season has driven home the point to me that these instincts and gut reactions to trades are an absolutely awful way to evaluate these kinds of moves. The honest fact is that Cubs fans are so enamored with some of the players that they lost this year, and so revile some of the others that they are completely, fundamentally, and totally incapable of separating their own feelings from their assessment of the season.
by Wreckard on Feb 3, 2009 10:55 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
I think a big part of Cub fans frustration with this year is tied to Jake Peavy.
For a long time, many people have been nursing a hope that these moves were going to lead to Jake Peavy. After each trade people said, “Well, we may have ‘sold high’ on Mark DeRosa without getting much in return, but this will lead to Peavy,” then, “Well, we may have sold low on Felix Pie, but this will lead to Peavy.”
But no Peavy.
When we look back at the moves this off-season , there are some good moves, some we’ll see moves, and some bad moves.
Good
1) We upgraded the OF with Milton Bradley – Good.
2) We traded Jason Marquis for a useful reliever, saving money, opening a spot for a perferrable 5th starter – Good.
We’ll see
3) We traded Mark DeRosa to open a spot for Mike Fontenot and get pitching depth – We’ll see. I think the return was poor, but we’ll see. I trust Fonty to do well in a platoon role, but again we will have to see.
4) We traded Ronny Cedeno and Garrett Olson for Aaron Heilman – We overpaid, but this is one of Hendry’s beloveds and he’s got a good track record on these players he pursues for years and finally gets.
5) We traded Michael Wuertz for Sellers and Robbnet, good AAA backups where we do need depth. I didn’t like this deal because I feel like Gregg is just a slightly better version of Wuertz at the cost of 3 M more, but I do like what we got back for our team’s depth.
6) We signed Aaron Miles after his career year; compare his deal to Wigginton’s and groan. But, he’ll platoon well enough with Fonty and maybe be as good as Theriot at SS.
Bad
7) We dumped Felix Pie for Olson and Hank Williamson – We lost depth that was very likely going to be needed just so Lou wouldn’t have to work with an annoyance to him and/or so Felix could have his shot. I hope it was the latter reason.
8) We traded Jose Ceda for Kevin Gregg, badly overpaying, especially when you consider Brandon Lyon’s deal. Lyon’s much lower walk rate would have meshed much better with Lou and he wouldn’t have costed Ceda. What’s more, the Marlins may have just DFA’d Gregg had they not traded him. Given the timing of this deal and how its announcement inaugerated the Kerry Wood drama, it’s maddening that we traded one of our best trade chips for PR. Jim Hendry’s worst deals have all run into PR problems – e.g. the need to run down Sosa and Patterson, destroying their trade value before trading them.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 4, 2009 9:23 AM CST up reply actions
you must really really really like Cedeno...
On the one hand, you say the Pie trade was bad, which tells me you don’t think much of Olson. Then you say we overpaid for Heilman by giving up Olson and Cedeno. Since you don’t think much of Olson, my twisted sense of boolean logic tells me that you must really really really like Cedeno… ;-)
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
I think that both Olson and Cedeno
are worth more than Heilman given their relative costs and upsides. However, the Cubs aren’t playing upsides and I would have been fine with trading either for Heilman. It’s when someone pays two dollars for a dollar donut and says “Keep the change” that you shake your head.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 4, 2009 4:32 PM CST up reply actions
I can handle the Ceda/Gregg deal.
Or rather, I could have handled it, if Gregg was replacing Bobby Howry.
Unfortunately, we needed to cut salary, so Gregg was replacing Kerry Wood.
The reason we needed to cut salary is because last year’s big free agent signing, Kosuke Fukudome, turned out to be the worst hitter in MLB.
The Ceda/Gregg thing I can handle. It’s the “move Kerry Wood so that we can afford Fukudome” thing that absolutely kills me.
The Pie move, as you note, was completely unnecessary. Sure, Pie pay get his shot now. But the Cubs primary objective is to improve their own fortunes, not the fortunes of youngsters they inexplicably refuse to use, despite several years of empirical evidence that the guy is a GD power-hitting, plus-defense centerfielder.
In my Cub experience, those types of prospects come along exactly never. And the Cubs traded him away for absolutely nothing. And replaced him with a no-hit washout from the Pre 2008 Bad Devil Rays and the fracking Royals.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Feb 4, 2009 1:46 PM CST up reply actions
Wreckard: my point about variant perceptions is that
the GMs see all the computer data that you see (and probably much more). Again, their job is to get data/feedback that doesn’t fit into a computer and get an “information edge” on their competition.
No one has a fool-proof system or can make 100% perfect trades, but the GM who can have the information edge beyond these data dumps is the one who will do the best. My point again is that EVERYONE sees these statistics. Hendry is aware of the changes he is making and what the statistical gains/losses are.
As a fan, I like letting the stats being 50% of my judgment on trade value and I like thinking “outside the box” too (time left on contract, leadership skills, ability to perform in clutch situations, etc…). I just think too many fans are too married to stats in making judgments.
"If it's obvious, it's obviously wrong." - a well known stock market guru
you must have missed the sarcasm in Wreckard's post
by philadelphiacub on Feb 3, 2009 9:40 PM CST up reply actions
I didn't miss it at all.
My post was a criticism of his snarkiness. You must have missed my point.
by CubsWin!Oregon on Feb 4, 2009 1:12 AM CST up reply actions
Alot depends on which Heilman and Gregg we get.
In 2007 Heilman’s WARP was 3.7 and Gregg’s was 4.7. That blows away Wood and Howry. Let’s hope Gregg’s knee problems caused an off year and Heilman just had a bad year.
Good point.
A healthy Wood, however, stands head and shoulders above those guys, and if we try Heilman as a starter, there’s no telling what we’ll get. I’m not opposed to trying, though.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 3, 2009 7:29 PM CST up reply actions
Kerry Wood's K/9 is among the best in the history of baseball.
His skillset and temperment are uniquely suited to the job of closer.
Moreover, he was a hero to the fanbase.
He was looking for a 2-year deal, and the Cubs balked, because they screwed up so badly last year with Fukudome, and their money had to to be dedicated to recitfying that horrible mistake.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Feb 4, 2009 1:50 PM CST up reply actions
Disagree.
I’m under the distinct impression Kerry Wood was looking for a three-year deal – and he got one if you include the option year. And about Fukudome, hindsight is 20/20. The Cubs had every reason to believe Dome would be a very productive player who was worth his contract when they signed him. And for the first two months of the season, he appeared to prove them right. No one could have predicted he’d fall off as far as he did as abruptly as he did. I’m really not sure it’s fair to say Hendry screwed up with Fukudome – I’d say Fukudome screwed up with Fukudome.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Re: Wood Two versus Three years.
I believe this subject has been very ambiguous with Wood and Hendry both wanting to be the good guys.
From what we’ve seen we are only certain that Hendry would not consider more than one year, if he was willing to offer any and Wood wanted three, but settled for the 2+ vesting he received.
My speculation is there was no middle ground at all.
If one year was acceptable to Hendry, he'd have offered arbitration.
It’s completely clear that Hendry was willing to offer Wood zero years.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Feb 5, 2009 2:13 PM CST up reply actions
You speak the truth, O D98.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
I'm not so sure about that.
I think if Wood had gone in either before 2008 ended or right after and said, “I’ll take another one year deal”, it’d have been done.
That didn’t happen, and so Hendry decided to move on. That’s my take on it.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Wood did say that he knew all year long it would be his last.
I’ve now been led to wonder how much of Wood’s post-Gregg interviews were accurate, but that statement stuck out to me at the time as evidence that that the Cubs had no intention of bringing him back. Additionally, there’s the refusal to offer arb – which could have been a gift to Kerry (see Juan Cruz’ situation).
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 6, 2009 1:38 PM CST up reply actions
IMO
arb was not offered to many in all of baseball, since arb cannot take the economy into consideration, and GM’s and Owners were not willing to pay some ot the inflated contracts that would have come from arb.
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
That's true
but in Wood’s case, with his injuries, you’d rather have him on a one year 8 M deal than a multi-year deal.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 6, 2009 3:52 PM CST up reply actions
You may be right.
With the budget and Hendry trying to put a lefty thumper in RF, a one year in the 8-10M range didn’t fit after seeing all of 2008 and the lack of production Dome provided at a hefty cost.
If the discussion was pre-2008, Wood wouldn’t have proven himself as a closer or been healthy for a full year. The dollars would be less etc.
How was Dome a mistake?
I don’t get how all of a sudden Dome was a horrible mistake that never should have happened. Did he fall off badly? Yes he did, no denying that. But a lot was written how he was going to have to adjust to playing in the states, how the pitching was different, the season was longer, etc. I think what happened is after the first two months or so, teams got a body of work on Dome, and were able to find the holes in his swing. Why he couldn’t make the adjustments, I don’t know, but I do feel he’ll be much improved this season. And if you were willing to give Pie chance after chance, when he couldn’t hit, but had nice defense, why are you so willing to give up on Dome after one season?
Chance after chance.
Pie had 83 at bats last year as a 23 year old.
At the end of the year, he looked great.
Dome had hundreds of at bats worth of being the single worst player in MLB.
Not only did Dome get exponentially more chances than pie, but he was substantially worse, for a period of time that exceeds pie’s entire MLB career.
And he’s 31. Past his prime. Pie is going to be 24 this year, with his best years ahead of him.
And Dome makes twelve million dollars per season.
Dome wasn’t your ordinary bust— he was paid “elite player” money, and was one of the worst hitters that any of us have ever seen for the last three months, covering hundreds of at bats.
So yes, the 31 year old with the gargantuan contract gets a higher level of scrutiny.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
you disregard a lot of
x factors to cut Fukudomes throat. Factors that many fans would take into consideration for other players.
I have repeatedly made these points both here and elsewhere about Dome, and they need to be taken into consideration. Put yourself in his shoes with these x factors, and tell me how you would do your first year on a job.
New born child………over seas from you
Surgery……………….ended the prior season early
New……………………country, people, language, foods, streets, driving on the other side of the road, traditions, work schedule, pregame routine (for starters)
Fukudome has also changed his off-season work out to be more prepared for American style of baseball and living. He is a professional who has proven in the past he can play. He is a proud person who IMHO will be more to our expectations this season.
Fukudome was pure class thru it all. He did not one complain publically, never made any trouble in the dugout or clubhouse, and I believe deserves our respect and support as he takes the field in his second chance this season. If this season mirrors last, then sure he needs to go, but you have to give him a second chance based on the above IMHO.
The following is not directed at you, but in general……isn’t Fukudome hanging while praising Wood the pot calling the kettle black, right? How many disappointing seasons did Wood go thru, and we stuck with him, but after one-half a bad season for a foreign player we want to hang him and ship him out of town ASAP. That would not only be unjust IMO but would also be a horrible representation of the Cubs fans and Cubs organization when it comes to trying to bring in other free agents, both domestic and international.
Cub fans in the past have made excuses for Wood, Sosa, and Prior (for examples) but are also fast to hang others (Jacque, LaTroy, Dome for examples). It is funny to see a fan go to bat for a player of personal preference who has under achieved or been thru a lot of injury plagued disappointing seasons, then hang another who was going thru an adjustment that none of us could make over night as well. This is the time we need to support him and show him the Cubbie love instead of hang him and further complicate his adjustment.
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
He earned $12 million last year.
He could have brought his entire family, and everyone else he knows, and rented adjacent penthouse apartments for all of them in the Loop.
We heard about Fukudome’s incredible off-season regimen last year, too. That didn’t help him when the entire league figured out that he’s easily fooled with sliders and outside heat.
I wish Dome all the best this year, but I’m also aware that there is a difference between underachieving due to injury, and underachieiving due to not being able to hit a MLB slider.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
The only improvement I want starts in October.
They can win less than 97 games this year as long as they qualify for the postseason.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al Yellon on Feb 4, 2009 4:43 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Al is...
…right on. But I think there’s some validity to the notion that a team that wins over the long term might be different than a team that wins in the short term. The short allows for talent spikes, while the long allows for true talent. It’s tough. – TL
+7
as in the # of wins I want in October post season to get TO the WS.
I agree (with Al) that I don’t care how many wins we have in the regular season. Just get to the post-season and let the improvement show at that point.
Said another way, if we will 100 games in 2009 and get shut out again in the play-offs in 2009, won’t all of us consider this year a failure?
"If it's obvious, it's obviously wrong." - a well known stock market guru
no.
I didn’t consider 2008 a failure either. It didn’t have the result I wanted, but what a ride!
This doesn’t mean I won’t be dissapointed. I absolutely will. But I’m not going to make a 162 game season a failure because of an inability to win 3 games in October.
In the end, it all comes to do this — Baseball is entertainment. Were you entertained?
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Feb 4, 2009 2:50 PM CST up reply actions
I for one, am not looking for the Cubs to become the Atlanta Braves
of the new era…though the Braves did win one WS. I am sure many of us would trade a year or two out of the play-offs for a successful run to and through the WS.
I understand where you are coming from Drew, and I agree, we all love the hunt, but I will feel very flat and let down if we get shut out in October again. Will my heart be in it for all 162 games—of course. I just don’t want the Cubs to turn into the Braves. After 50+ years as a Cub fan, I really want one WS. Is that to much to ask?
"If it's obvious, it's obviously wrong." - a well known stock market guru
"Are you not entertained? Are you not entertained? Is this not why you are here?"
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
He could probably hit for power off the bench.
Think he could play a little third and first base, too?
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Would Decimus Meridius fit on the back of his jersey?
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
he could end up with a nasty raspberry on his butt
when he slides into second (or home).
"If it's obvious, it's obviously wrong." - a well known stock market guru
Look more closely at the picture.
He’s right handed. Ship him to Cleveland.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 4, 2009 4:35 PM CST up reply actions
not at all.
i think the playoffs are largely a crapshoot. play good baseball all year and get to the playoffs, give yourself a shot, and i’m happy.
i’m puzzled by the offseason moves.
"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie
"...as long as they qualify for the postseason."
that’s the tricky part and the fine line that Hendry & Lou must walk. Granted, we seem to have the luxury of playing in a crappy division where the other teams haven’t done much to improve themselves. But if we keep the focus solely on October, we could very well stumble in April and May.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
+1
The implicit assumption that the Cubs will be a playoff team keeps bugging me, too. I mean, I understand where it comes from, but it still makes me nervous.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
that's why I stated "just get to the post-season" above.
I take nothing for granted. Who knows what injuries or other problems are out there. You have to play the 162 games FIRST!
…you are so right.
"If it's obvious, it's obviously wrong." - a well known stock market guru
Harold Reynolds said that
Last years Cubs team is better than this years, as it stands now. What he says goes, so that settles it.
I like Harold...
…but I’m not quite ready to become his acolyte.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Yea
I was only kidding. I do like Harold though. I feel like he has great all around knowledge. Not to get too off topic but I have really enjoyed Barry Larkin as well.
Yeah, I've enjoyed both their commentary on MLBn.
I love when they show old clips of them playing, too.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
5.2
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 4, 2009 4:35 PM CST up reply actions
Wow
DGU – I didn’t say this before, but I think your analysis here is great. It’s one perspective.
I am not sure how you set this up, nor do I have an account. Nonetheless, I am interested in looking at it. I am looking forward to your post of the WARP analysis for the 25-man roster when it’s set. I’d like to see what it would look like with Peavy and Aurilia, although that puts us at 26 players.
0.6
with 240 or so PA.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 4, 2009 7:21 PM CST up reply actions
I Heard Somewhere...
… that the Red Sox in the early 2000’s hired someone (was it someone from Stats, LLC?) as a consultant to use sabremtetrics to determine who to go and get. The guy came in, and quickly said that the core player they’d need to get was Big Papi. Within a couple of years, they won the title and shifted the control from NY to Boston.
Is this true?
you mean Bill James?
he works for Boston
by philadelphiacub on Feb 4, 2009 11:03 AM CST up reply actions
3 Keys...
…to whether the Cubs are better in 09:
1. health of the pitching staff
2. health of Bradley
3. how well Fukudome rebounds
If they get the first two to work out, they might not win more than 97 games, but I think they will be a better playoff team. If they happen to get all three, they have a chance to win 100 games.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I agree
but if we lose Aramis at all – and his health has been a lot dicier in the past than it was last year – we could be in serious trouble.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 5, 2009 5:23 AM CST up reply actions
I don't even like to think about that happening.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Feb 5, 2009 10:47 AM CST up reply actions
we could always shift Riot over there.
He’d have to relay this throws to first via Fontenot though.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Feb 5, 2009 10:54 AM CST up reply actions
Or just have him throw it to the pitcher. Remember when we were kids and
we didn’t have enough playrs so we played pitcher’s hand out? Boy, I’m really dating myself now. I’ll bet most people don’t know what the hell I’m talking about.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Feb 5, 2009 10:57 AM CST up reply actions
Actually, I think we did that, too.
Or we’d just play wiffle ball and throw the ball at the runner.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
we used to play "right field out"
when we didn’t have enough players to field a whole team, any ball hit to right field was an automatic out.
Of course, I was the only left-hander in our neighborhood, so it kinda sucked for me. Sometimes, the other team was willing to shift their outfield and play “left field out” for my at-bats, but more often than not they just laughed. Kids can be so mean… ;-)
But at least I learned how to hit to the opposite field at an early age, and that was helpful later in my ‘career’. Still wished I had stayed with the pitching thing, though – I’d probably have a job now if I had…
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Y'know what this is? --> .000/.000/.000
Ryan Theriot’s stats in the Right Field Out League.
C’mon … it’s a joke, people!
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
No, he can take first base when that happens...
…but he’ll still be caught stealing anyway.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
when we only had enough OFs to play two, we would shift them
to RF and CF for a LH batter (and played “LF out” for lefties). I guess we weren’t as lazy as the folks you played baseball with. :-)
"If it's obvious, it's obviously wrong." - a well known stock market guru
pitchers hand and right field out
were common for us as kids
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
Yep, his clutches coincide with the base he's closest to.
Wait, does that mean he should play first base?
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Ramirez...
…would be a loss, but if Bradley stays in one piece I believe the Cubs would still be fine. They could actually put someone over their with a little speed, and add that element to their offense.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I've been thinking about this for a couple of days now ...
and I’d have to say it appears last year’s team had more talent. But really, it is a moot point. Given the degree of difficulty (or degree of ease if you prefer) of winning the NL Central, the Cubs should have little problem advancing to the postseason. At that point, it is all about who plays the best, not who has the best team. Come October, I’d rather have a hot Fontenot than a cold DeRosa.
"We gotta circle the bandwagons." - Devin Hester
Let's not count our chickens just yet.
If Manny signs with the Cardinals, we’re in a world of trouble. And heck, Houston could be frisky.
That being said, while I agree with your generally sentiment regarding the playoffs, DeRosa was literally the only Cub hitter to show up in the postseason in the Lou era. I understand the desire to move him, but I’m a little shocked at how small the return was.
The Cubs are built to destroy bad teams, and fortunately, we play a lot of those in the regular season. Of course, they fold like a paper tiger when they see a decent pitcher, but that’s for another day.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on Feb 5, 2009 2:18 PM CST up reply actions
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