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Pay not to play?

Some of you may be familiar with game theory.  I'm no expert, but I do use and teach it in my work.  For those of you not familiar, game theory is used when there are only a few players (or a few types of players), only a few variables that determine outcomes, and you can make assumptions about which outcomes each player prefers.  One creative suggestion that sometimes comes out of a game theory analysis is that you might pay someone NOT to play a game. 

For example, say Bank 1 is thinking of acquiring Bank 2.  Bank 2 is concerned about Bank 1's plans, and tries to get Bank 3 to also bid, as a "white knight."  Bank 1 may approach Bank 3 and say "We'll pay you NOT to bid on Bank 2."  That payment may not be a cash transfer; it may be favorable business terms or something else.  In certain situations, this kind of payment is not illegal, and actually makes everything work out to be most economically efficient.  Anyway...

Does this have an application in baseball?  I was thinking about the remaining free agents with some injury history, like Ken Griffey, Jr.  Ironically, if he doesn't sign anywhere, the Reds are paying him even though he's not playing, because he gets $5 M a year over the next several from when he renegotiated his contract a while back.  That's not what I mean by pay not to play.

What I mean is, could a team go to Griffey and say, "We think you might sign with one of our competitors.  Now, we don't have a spot for you unless one of our players gets hurt.  But we would like to have you available if that happens.  We'll pay you $1 M to not sign a contract with any other team before June 30.  If any one of our starting outfielders goes on the DL prior to June 30, we will promise to sign you for a minimum of $2 M plus incentives.  Anytime after June 30, you can sign with whoever you want." 

Clearly, the Cubs couldn't sign Griffey and just stash him on the DL.  They could send him to the minors with his approval, so he could stay in shape.  But they could also make him a coach, or announcer, or "Spring Training Instructor" or "Goodwill Ambassador" etc.  He could live at home until his kids finish school for the year, go work out in Arizona for a few weeks, and join the team if needed. 

Recall Roger Clemens' contract with the Astros a few years back.  He pitched at home, rarely traveled, and took the first couple of months off. 

Can you imagine the Cubs doing that in the future?  What type of player would be involved?  Is this a strategy a high-payroll team could use to keep certain free agents from signing with other teams in the division? 

To push it a bit further, would the collective bargaining agreement and the commissioner's office allow a payment like this: "The Cubs have agreed to pay Ben Sheets $1 million to NOT sign with any other club in the NL Central Division over the next 3 years."  Just an interesting (to me) thought experiment. 

C'mon Spring Training!

 

 

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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The MLBPA would never go for this.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 3, 2009 10:34 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

agree

my first thought was also that the player’s association would never allow something like this. Doing it as an informal promise would never work either as the player would be absorbing too much risk.
finally, i think the premise is just wrong. You have to look at the utility to the team “paying not to play.” are there really any players that it would be worth a million $ not to have on another team?
It would be one thing if there were only a few teams and they played each other 50 times a year, but that’s not the case. Additionally, if it was the case that it was worth 1$ million to not have them on the other team, they’re an elite player and one who would be an asset to a team, even in a bench role.
not a perfect application of game theory, but interesting nonethless

by neifi on Feb 3, 2009 10:54 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I'll reply to you rather than Al just because your post is longer

I proposed two very different things, that maybe shouldn’t have been combined.

Re: the Griffey example of paying for services rendered, with an option to sign a MLB contract: Why wouldn’t the players association agree with this? Guaranteed income for fringe players, while not costing a roster spot for someone else? That’s more money for players, not less.

Re: the Sheets example of paying not to sign with a specific team, it would restrict the player’s options. But the player is getting paid to restrict those options. Obviously, the player has the right not to sign such an agreement if the potential best bidders are in the NL Central. But suppose a player, let’s call him Texeira, entertains top offers from Boston, NY, and LA Angels. The offers are roughly equivalent, and the player does not have a strong desire to live or play one place vs. another. Now Boston offers him $2 M to sign with LA, rather than NY. Boston avoids a bidding war with NY, but only has to face Texeira a few times a year rather than many times a year. The player would get the same base contract as before, plus a couple million. Why would the MLBPA object?

I think you’re probably right, they would object. But I’m interested to know, on what grounds?
 

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by zambranofan on Feb 3, 2009 1:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's a good question, and...

… maybe my first reaction isn’t the right one.

I suspect no player would go for it, because in the end, they want to compete. There IS something like this where a player is signed to a minor league contract with the stipulation that if they get a major league offer, they are free to go. The Cubs had Rod Beck in 2003 under a deal like that.

Maybe some of the out of work players will have to sign deals like that.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 3, 2009 1:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I bet this happens once in a while

just not so blatantly, and the teams, not the players, benefit. To take your example, it would be easier for Boston’s GM to call LA’s GM and tell him that if LA will increase its Texiara deal by $2 million, Boston will help LA free up $2 millsion in salary in a subsequent trade.

by TC Cubby on Feb 3, 2009 4:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Why would Griffey go for that?

I dont see the incentive. If he can get a deal before the Cubs paid him not to play, why wouldnt he take that?

In a more general sense, some guys like Griffeys age/stature are chasing numbers and/or milestones, so sitting out does them no good, especially on the off chance that Cubs “might need” him incase someone gets hurt.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Feb 3, 2009 10:59 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Agreed on the second part about milestones

However, Griffey apparently hasn’t gotten any offers. He will already make $5 M this year from the Reds, regardless of what else he is paid. Suppose he wants to play for a winning team, and like Clemens did, wait until mid-year to choose a team that is going well. If one team expecting to be good signed him to a “not play” (e.g., broadcasting) contract for the first few months, he could retain that right with the added upside of possibly being added to a winning roster sooner if they have an injury.

Let’s take another case, because it shouldn’t be all about Griffey. Suppose Jon Lieber last year had said to the Cubs “My shoulder is still a little ways from full strength. I could work in the bullpen to start the season, but your pitching staff has several days off, and I don’t want to sit idle on the bench when I could be at home or working with my personal trainer. If you sign me to a small "non-play” deal, I will avoid signing a player contract with anyone else until you decide if you want me as of July 1. After that, I’m free to sign with anyone who will use me as a starter, which is what I really want." Is that really so different from the kind of deal offered to rehabbing players like Dempster a few years ago? The difference is that the team wouldn’t have to PROVE the player is disabled.

Thanks for reading and discussing.

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by zambranofan on Feb 3, 2009 1:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Just guessing this is why there are MLB rosters.

Beyond the theory of whether a player would accept these terms, how would having a player like this work with the 25 man/40 man rosters? Stashing an aging superstar may be a nice luxury, but is it worth leaving a real prospect unprotected?

by N Oakley on Feb 3, 2009 11:12 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

The point is whether you could make it work without a roster spot

If the Astros had a verbal agreement with Clemens that he would sign with them in May, why didn’t MLB treat that as him taking up a spot on the 40-man roster?

This would be similar: the player is being paid for services other than playing baseball. There would be no effect on the 25-man or 40-man roster according to the current rules.

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by zambranofan on Feb 3, 2009 1:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, I guess I see a verbal agreement without

compensation as different as a paid agreement.

MLBPA may like this concept, but it would seem to benefit the big markets even more. I doubt any GM’s with hard salary budget want to see a player like Griffey, who may be effective for 25% of the season, stashed without penalty and recycled for the stretch run.

by N Oakley on Feb 3, 2009 2:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Problem of terms...

As a thought-experiment it’s somewhat interesting. But I think you’re confusing your terms.

In your bank example, Bank #3 agrees to such a settlement in part because they are capable of participating in the market in others ways. You aren’t paying them to end business. You’re paying them to merely divert business through other means, which can be economically justifiable if provided enough compensation.

Now in the baseball example you cite, I think you mistake terms. In such a game theory, the “Game Participants” are the Franchises; The baseball players are commodities. I.e. The player would have to represent the object over which the bargaining takes place; not the partner with which bargaining occurs. Why is this so? Because baseball contracts (either to play or not to play) are exclusionary: the team that the player signed with gets sole custody of all services performed for the duration of the contract. Such a contract doesn’t allow the diversion of market; it closes the market.

To be comparable to your bank example then, the player would represent Bank #2. Your negotiation would have to be with every other franchise in baseball (Bank #3), where you pay them not to bid. Obviously, utilizing this strategy would therefore represent illegal collusion among teams.

It’s probably conceivable to think of some sort of game theory that encompasses franchise to player interaction, but the size of the pool of participants involved (ie all baseball players) means that there is far to much liklihood of player defection in the course of negotiation. Avoiding it would create far too great a distortion of market to make it worth it.

Lastly, baseball players become baseball players because they want to play the game. I’d be surprised if the monetary incentive would be great enough to overcome that desire.

Anyway, hopefully that was somewhat clear. Game theory is interesting and kind of fun. My grad degree centers on the multi-layered variety (International Relations), so I spent far to much time in the trenches with it. But it’s essential to maintain correct correlations to make a meaningful analysis.

by CubsWin!Oregon on Feb 3, 2009 2:15 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

you have demonstrated why business ethics has fallen into the abyss

That is the kind of thought that brought about Trust busting and after the Great Depression.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Feb 3, 2009 5:40 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I got news for you

I think the Cubs should pay Griffey to play for the Cardinals or Brewers, not the other way around.

But on a theoretical level, this would never be allowed by either the players or the owners. It probably runs into the collusion rule anyway.

by Josh77 on Feb 3, 2009 7:17 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I loath Clemens

the “anti- Maddux” and I consider his contract disgusting but to be fair it merely said he did not have to go on road trips he was not scheduled to pitch in so he did in fact make the majority of trips. A selfish ass to be sure but he did indeed travel with the team most of the time.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Feb 4, 2009 1:39 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Based on...

this, Clemens may be in real trouble.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 4, 2009 4:01 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Could not happen to a nicer guy

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Feb 4, 2009 9:23 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Clemens = Barry Bonds

part 2

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Feb 5, 2009 2:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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