Kevin Gregg vs. Kerry Wood ... Why It Is A Positive Move
by Jblatt on Feb 4, 2009 9:39 PM CST
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PrintThis is a great article for all the Kevin Gregg haters out there who do not realize that his ERA of about 3 and a half was spiked due to one month where he was trying to pitch with an injured knee.
In 2008, Kevin Gregg was hampered by a knee injury in August. In that month, he blew three out of nine save chances. In those three games, he gave up more than three runs in each. That helped his August ERA balloon to 10.13, his only month above 3.00
The second two blown saves were back-to-back and led to Gregg and his knee being rested. He did not pitch between August 30 and September 8. He proceeded to come back to pitch in nine September games, compiling seven innings, four holds, and no earned runs.
Kerry on the other hand, had three months with an ERA over 6.50. One was March, where he only pitched one inning, but in September, he gave up eight runs in 10.2 innings.
Gregg has had much more experience in the ninth inning. Minus his horrific August of 2008, he had saved 55 out of 65 games (only four blown saves in 36 chances in 2007) over the past two years. To go along with that, he also recorded 10 holds.
Now, maybe Kerry would also have saved 58 out of 65. It also may be true that Kerry was better set up to succeed in Chicago. I believe Gregg will get more save chances with two-plus run leads in Chicago than he did in Florida. Not to mention the four run lead chances.
Also, if Gregg remained healthy last year, his ERA would have very likely been under 3.00.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/119410-chicago-cubs-defending-kevin-gregg-against-kerry-wood
This is not to mention that Carlos Marmol, who will likely be taking over the closer duties has better stuff than both of them and is younger than both. I, for one, am more than content with the moves Hendry has made thus far. Our team is far and away better than any of our division competition and we have kept our top prospect and not gone over the top with our spending while adding the lefty bat we sought after (ya he wont hit 30+ bombs but if healthy he is an absolute beast, even Frank Thomas said he was one of the best hitters he has ever seen, and that was before last season)
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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I am a Cards fan so I am happy that you guys replaced Wood with Gregg
There is really no feasible way to say that Gregg is in Wood’s class as a closer. Gregg in his first 2 seasons as a closer hasn’t been as good as his ERA shows. His FIP’s (fielding independent pitching) have been 3.89 and 3.80 respectively. He has been able to keep a low ERA mainly by having very low BABIPs of .272 and .261. The league average is about .300 and his career BABIP is .302, so it appears that Gregg has been extraordinarily lucky the last 2 years.
Wood however posted a sparkling 2.32 FIP. He was actually incredibly unlucky as his BABIP .331 as apposed to .287 for his career.
Furthermore, Gregg is just bad enough on the surface to force Marmol into the closer role where his ability to get out of jams will be negated by him starting an inning most nights.
vivaelbensheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 4, 2009 10:10 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
That's uncalled for
A lot of us like fans of other teams offering perspective — this ain’t BrewCrewBall
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Feb 5, 2009 6:20 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you were joking, ernie...
…but that’s some pretty solid analysis by vivaelpujols.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
I doubt he was
joking. I think he’s the guy who would never accept Edmonds on the Cubs because he was an ex Cardinal.
Well...
Furthermore, Gregg is just bad enough on the surface to force Marmol into the closer role where his ability to get out of jams will be negated by him starting an inning most nights.
It’s no secret, most here agree with Mr. Red Bird. Letting Wood go was a financial decision and not a decision to replace Wood with Gregg and make the setup/closer situation better.
Wood was only a closer for one year
He did a great job, yes, but it was only one year-his injuries could just as easily rear their head again
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
People lets get real here
bash me all you want but Kerry Wood is Kevin Gregg without the K’s. A lot of you guys were the ones who wanted the Cubs not to sign Wood before last season. So for some of you to criticize Hendry for not resigning him because of injury concerns is completely ridiculous. And to the previous poster, Vivaelpujols, you don’t get guys out because of luck. You get guys out because you r a decent pitcher. Luck is such a terrible term to use in baseball because you make your own breaks. Theres not some person making the ball go funny directions so that hitters cant hit your pitch.
I just want everybody to give Gregg a chance. Of course, he’s going to get criticism when he’s replacing The Cub. But you can’t blame the Cubs for not resigning Wood. He just cost too much and it was time to move on.
Hey 8 days till pitchers and catchers report
ummm
And to the previous poster, Vivaelpujols, you don’t get guys out because of luck. You get guys out because you r a decent pitcher. Luck is such a terrible term to use in baseball because you make your own breaks. Theres not some person making the ball go funny directions so that hitters cant hit your pitch.
There is a truism in sabermetrics that the only things a pitchers has control over is walks, strikeouts and home runs. A pitcher has little control over whether the balls put in play are hits are not. That’s where defense comes in. The average pitcher allows a .300 BABIP (batting average on balls put in play). Kevin Gregg over his career has allowed a .302 BABIP. The only difference between him over the last 2 years vs. his previous career and most other pitchers out there, is that Gregg’s defense played particularly well when he was on the mound. For example Tampa Bay had the best defensive efficiency rating in 08. No surprise that there pitchers allowed the lowest BABIP of any team last year at .285. Texas had the worst defensive efficiency mark last year. There pitchers allowed the highest BABIP of any team last year at .322.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 4, 2009 10:56 PM CST up reply actions
Completely disagree.
Luck plays a huge role in baseball. Think of a bloop single that lands just inside the right field line. Did the batter aim the ball there? Of course not. Any batter who could would probably be a .500 hitter. He got lucky and, as a result, the pitcher got unlucky. Same goes for pitchers who make good pitches but end up with guys on base because their defense can’t get to the ball. Unlucky.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
by daver on Feb 5, 2009 10:18 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Conventional wisdom says luck will eventually even out. Those bloops that
fal in will eventually turn into line drives hit right at someone. I tend to agree except my luck at the blacjack and poker tables seems to always run bad. Maybe it’s just the fact that I am unlucky. Wait, I just countered my own argument. Forget it.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Feb 5, 2009 10:21 AM CST up reply actions
LOL
But seriously, teams that win championships have to be both good AND lucky. Example: let’s say Ryan Dempster gets the strike-three call he could have gotten on Loney in game 1. That would have gotten him out of the 5th inning, allowing no runs even with the 7 walks. That would have been lucky, and maybe would have turned the series around.
We’ll never know. But stuff like that happens to championship teams all the time.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I agree totally. It's just that we have never been on the winning side so it seems like
our luck is always bad. Things like the Bartman play make it seem like w are never lucky, the fact remains that a good team overcomes unlucky bounces and goes on to win. Our teams have never seemed to possess the intestinal fortitude to overcome these types of situations and go on to win. It’s supposed to even out, but I’m getting a little tired over waiting for it.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Feb 5, 2009 10:53 AM CST up reply actions
Ron Santo has an interesting thought on this
He has often said that he feels that it doesn’t even out, because the better hitters tend to hit more line drives than lesser ones — so, they’ll hit more “at ’em” balls and fewer bloopers. It seems reasonable.
Thoughts?
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Feb 5, 2009 11:23 AM CST up reply actions
MPH of batted balls
That is a statistic I would be very curious to see recorded. I would hazard a guess that the harder a ball is hit, the more likely it is to turn into a hit.
Eamus Ursuli!
I think you're right
Which, if true, lends credence to what Santo says. Aramis Ramirez probably hits more balls hard than, say, Theriot — who in turn, hits more bloopers than Ramirez (between first and second base, but that’s a story for another time).
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Feb 5, 2009 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
I don't know if it's MPH
But I do know, in slow pitch softball at least, it’s measured in FPS and they have a certain number that the bat has to stay under. There are several bats that are banned in ASA and USSSA league play because their FPS is so high it’s actually killed or seriously injured someone.
As for baseball it makes sense. The harder the ball is hit, the faster it’s moving, giving the fielders less time to react and make a play. You hit it hard enough it’ll move fast enough that the only option the fielder has is to duck or get out of the way.
WHY ARE WE YELLING
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
I EDITED THE TITLE...
… oh, sorry. I edited the title.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
All I know about Gregg
(that’s 3g Gregg) is he straight up blew away our 3-4-5 hitters w/runners on, for multiple saves over the last couple of years. He has a Clark Kent look about him, and he should think about lasik. Maybe Z can recommend a guy…
/Hate noisy headlines
2008 Chicago Cubs: A busted pipe
speaking of which
any word on Zambrano’s eye surgery? has it been done yet? is he recovering ok? My wife had it done around the time of the convention and she is still pretty blurry in one eye
That's unusual.
I had LASIK more than 10 years ago and have never had any problems.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I had LASIK 3 weeks ago
I see 20/15 and have no blurriness.
I had it in March
20/20 uncorrected, no blurriness — unless I am tired or my eyes are dry.
Still have to use the artificial tears, but not all that often. Sometimes I go a day or two without needing the eye drops.
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Feb 5, 2009 11:25 AM CST up reply actions
That's the Kevin Gregg I remember from 2007.
I hope he shows up this year.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
I seem to remember Daryl Ward turning on one of his fastballs.
Moreover, moving from ProPlayer Stadium to Wrigley will have an effect on his stats.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
The thing I worry about Gregg...
… is his walk rates. They were good for the 3 years he was setting up K-Rod in Anaheim, but jumped when he went to Florida and became their closer the last two years.
This does suggest he might be a decent setup man for Marmol, though I have suggested that Marmol might be better setting up Gregg.
I personally thought Kerry Wood did a good job last year, but we don’t have to go through that discussion again. He’s gone and Gregg is here; Gregg is likely to be a one-year Cub. I hope he succeeds.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Gregg wasn't actually the setup man in Anaheim...
In 2004, KRod was the setup man and Percival was the closer. In 2005-2006, Shields and Donnelly were the setup men and KRod was the closer. In all three of those seasons, Gregg was more of a mopup guy or middle-inning long(er) reliever, pitching mostly in games where the team was behind.
But you are correct in that his walk rate spiked when he came to Florida. Of course, his hit rate also plummeted. Perhaps this is a function of going more with the slider as a one-inning reliever (less hits, more walks) than when he pitched longer stints? Perhaps it’s a function of pitching in pressure situations? The negative correlation between walks and hits is interesting though. I’m not sure of the cause.
This question is out-dated; what we really should be asking now is Aaron Heilman v. Kerry Wood.
Kevin Gregg walks more batters as a reliever than Daniel Cabrera walks as a starter. Let that fact sink in for a minute. Kevin Gregg walks nearly 5 batters every 9 innings.
Lou Piniella hates relievers who walk a lot of batters. Do you see where this is going? Gregg will not outlast Heilman and Guzman and Samardzija as a high-leverage reliever on this team. Unless he has a career year, he just won’t.
Gregg is a decent reliever who looks better than he is because he has closer experience and has pitched in parks that help contain his mistakes well. Gregg’s HR rate was abnormally low last year and going from FL to Wrigley is not going to help that.
So, bump Gregg’s HR rate back to what it was in Anaheim, add that to a walk rate pushing 5 per 9 and you have to ask yourself who does Kevin Gregg look like? Check Gregg’s BB, HR, and SO rates, and tell me what’s the difference between him and this guy.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Uh-huh
“Kevin Gregg walks more batters as a reliever than Daniel Cabrera walks as a starter. Let that fact sink in for a minute. Kevin Gregg walks nearly 5 batters every 9 innings.”
Ok. I let it sink in for a minute. Then after the minute I went to ESPN.com and got the following info:
Daniel Cabrera: IP = 841.1, BB = 478; ratio = 5.11 BB / 9 IP.
Kevin Gregg: IP = 407.2, BB = 163; ratio = 3.60 BB / 9 IP.
Would you like to take a minute to think about it?
Basically what you are doing is taking stats from different years (those that suit you) in order to make a point. If you want to take Gregg’s HR rates from Anaheim, why don’t you also take Gregg’s BB from Anaheim? Cause just so you know, in case you don’t, when he was there he pitched 255 innings, and gave up 86 BB, for a ratio of 3.03 BB / 9 innings.
……………
Uh-huh (inflected the opposite way of yours)
Luis – why do you think…
1) that Gregg will be able to bring back his better walk rate now that he’s older?
2) that Gregg will be able to maintain an abnormally low HR rate when he moves to Wrigley Field from one of the hardest parks to hit HRs out of?
I’d love it if we could get that 2004 Anaheim Kevin Gregg – is he available?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 5, 2009 9:03 AM CST up reply actions
Listen (ala Lou)
All I’m saying is that you can’t cherry pick stats like that, one from one year, another from another year, in order to make a point. Either you take his agreggrate stats from his career (which is what I think you should have done since he is not at an age where you suspect a significant decline) or you take everything from the last year (the good and the bad).
It could be that since he knew he was in a more pitcher friendly environment that he knew the walks would not hurt him so much and he was more liberal in that regard. Who knows? And of course the Cabrera comparison had little substance to it and was quite misleading.
To answer your points:
1) Gregg will be 31 this June. From what I know pitchers (in general) don’t start walking more people when they get to that age. So unless there is a clear trend that pitchers start walking more people when they get to 29-30-31 I would deem it possible that he can lower his walk rates.
2) He will probably give more HRs than last year. It’s also possible that he walks less people and those HRs don’t hurt as much.
Bottom line: for a 30 year old reliever with only 400 innings in his belt, if you want to make a point, use his whole career. Unless you have evidence that his stuff is in decline, like for example that his fastball hs lost 4 mph or something like that. Then that would be another story.
Let's look at all his stats, then.
Trying to work off of Kevin Gregg’s career stats is not a good idea. Look at his year-by-year stats. He’s a different pitcher in 2008 than he was in other years. Fangraphs’ site shows this very well. In 2005, he was using a changeup and a cutter he hardly used at all last year. He really upped his sliders last year and doubled the number of splitters he threw in 2006.
He also flipped what kind of pitcher he was in terms of groundball/flyball. But he had flipped before. Look at this GB/FB rate by year:
2004: 1.09
2005: 1.38
2006: 0.77
2007: 0.53
2008: 1.26
So, that GB/FB rate helps explain the career low HR rate, somewhat. The problem is that his other best year for GBs – 2005 – was also a bad year for HRs. The second problem is that it’s hard to tell if Gregg has control over what results come from his pitches. He hasn’t made consistent changes. So is there really any telling what kind of pitcher he’ll be this year?
Except, we do know one thing about how he’ll pitch. He’ll give up a ton of walks. Gregg’s walk rate has been increasing for three straight years. Last year, among pitchers with at least 50 innings, Gregg was among the 30 worst ML pitchers for bad walk rates. I suppose I could have said, “His walk rate is as bad as Mark Lowe’s from Seattle,” but how many people know who Lowe is? So, I went with the guy everyone knows. The fact is – Gregg walks people at a higher rate than Cabrera – I don’t see how that’s “misleading.”
Yes it’s “possible” he’ll lower his walk rate. But why should anyone think it’s likely? He’s trending the other way. He’s changed the percentages of which pitches he’s throwing and it’s very likely that he just doesn’t control his splitter and/or slider as well as he controlled his changeup and cutter. You’ll note that his good year in walk rates, 2006, was also the year he barely threw his splitter.
Let’s go back to that HR rate. D.S. was the 4th hardest park to hit a HR out of in 2008. Wrigley was the 7th easiest. When Gregg pitched in Anaheim, Angel Stadium was nearly impossible to hit a HR out of. So, I was being conservative, when I suggested Gregg’s HR rate might flip back to the level it was at in Anaheim. The HR rate in Wrigley is twice what it once was in Anaheim.
So, we’re supposed to ignore the growing walks, ignore the low BABIP, ignore the fact that the HR rate looks fluky to begin with and that for the first time in his career he won’t be pitching in one of the hardest parks to hit a HR out of and focus on the fact that he might have been pitching hurt a couple of days.
I tell you what – I guarantee Kerry Wood was pitching hurt more than a few days last year. All pitchers do. Except Gregg – not in 2009 – he won’t pitch hurt at all in 2009.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 5, 2009 2:55 PM CST up reply actions
Basically you answered your own question
Gregg has been all over the place, so it’s difficult to predict what he’ll do next year (more reason to go by his career numbers). The Cubs may have him throw his pitches with different regularity than he did in Florida. Who knows. What we do know is that for his career Gregg has walked around 3.6 batters per 9 innings. You keep mentioning his walk rates but only for last year, when he was awful. I think his career walk rate is a lot more informative than what he did last year. I believe he is basically what his career numbers show, a 4.00 ERA guy who may have some things go his way some years and have a lower ERA than that. You however, want to project his numbers based on a 5 BB per 9 inning ratio and a spike in his home run numbers. Basically you want to have your cake and it too.
Btw, what are the PECOTA projections for Gregg?
PECOTA isn't the best on relievers, but they like him for a 4.06 ERA w/ 25 walks in 56.7 IP.
If Kevin Gregg had become a knuckleball pitcher in 2008, would you suggest using his career numbers to predict his 2009 performance?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 5, 2009 3:48 PM CST up reply actions
Nop, but obviously that's no the case here.
I said Gregg was a 4 ERA guy. PECOTA agrees. Do you expect something much worse than this?
I expect a 4 ERA or a little lower.
A couple factors are important –
1. jplatt expects a 3.00 ERA; he’s not alone among Cub fans.
2. Michael Wuertz had a 3.60 ERA and got benched and demoted because he walked people at the rate of 4 per 9 IP. PECOTA expects Gregg to walk people at the rate of 4 per 9. Last year Gregg walked people nearly 5 per 9.
Why did I bring up the knuckleball? Because Gregg has changed the type of pitcher he is. Gregg the Marlin (07-08) threw different pitches than Gregg the Angel (03-06). It is highly unlikely that Gregg is going to go back to throwing pitches he hasn’t thrown over the past two years. So, Gregg’s 2007-2008 walk rate is going to be more predictive for 2009 than his 2003-2006 walk rates.
There’s no cake to eat in saying these things. I’m doing what you asked – digging into all his stats – and I like Gregg less after doing it than when I started.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 5, 2009 4:23 PM CST up reply actions
If the Cubs trainers
Believe he can be better if he used some of those old pitches, maybe they will encourage him to do so. Either way, I guess we agree on the overall prediction. I don’t believe he is a better reliever than Wuertz, that I can say. Basically the Cubs got him because they were scared to go into the season without someone who had closed before.
I don’t think much of Ceda at this point either (98 BB in 180 IP, and reports of only one really good pitch), so basically it becomes a minor move in the end (if he has a good year the Cubs can perhaps offer arbitration and get a pick). Basically Gregg was brought in for psychological peace of mind…… at least they know he won’t go LaTroy on them if he’s asked to close.
Again, my question is - why not Lyon?
I don’t mind trading Ceda, per se. I only minded trading him for Gregg.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 5, 2009 5:37 PM CST up reply actions
Based on your analysis, why not just keep Wuertz?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Because Lou didn't trust Wuertz.
Fortunately, Lou is so good of a manager that he adds more wins than the dozens we trade away in dumping players he dislikes.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 6, 2009 8:39 AM CST up reply actions
Let's hope so, anyway.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
regarding walks
two quetions i have
was he worried about a subpar defense behind him and trying too hard to throw perfect pitchs?
did the catcher call a lot of off speed pitchs away which he threw missing by a lot or a little?
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
Oh don't do that.
That isn’t fair to do to someone who just arrived here. Granted, I think the move to let Woody go was bad and that Gregg is hardly a replacement but Latroy? Cmon.
Here is my opinion. The guy wants to win (though they all pretty much say that), maybe in an atmosphere like Wrigley or Chicago itself, he will be envigorated enough to overcome some of his shortcomings. If not, then we can compare him to Latroy.
Kwa...Ki...Sur...Pee...Nee...Ku?
Too late. Can't take it back.
Look – I’m definitely rooting for Gregg’s success. I very much want to get a draft pick when we let him walk next year and, hey, I wouldn’t mind winning this year.
For what it’s worth, I always thought LaTroy was underrated. He was a useful reliever put in situations that weren’t good for him. The problem with Kevin Gregg is that asking him to be a reliever for Lou Piniella is doing the exact same thing we did with LaTroy.
Why didn’t we just sign Brandon Lyon?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Feb 5, 2009 9:07 AM CST up reply actions
That's a nice opening line, but it's not actually true...
Gregg walked more batters PER NINE INNINGS LAST YEAR than Cabrera did. But he did not walk more batters than Cabrera. Also, that’s the only time in his career that his BB/9 has topped Cabrera’s, and it’s usually not been close.
I agree that Gregg walks a lot of people. I agree that he’s probably only a slight upgrade over Wuertz. But you did wildly misrepresent the facts there.
"Wildly misinterpret" - hmph.
Sure – it’s “per 9” but we’re comparing a reliever to a starter. “Per 9” is the only way to compare them that makes sense.
Sure – Cabrera has been worse and Gregg has been better. The point remains – this is not the type of reliever Lou can stand.
While precision in language is a virtue I failed to employ, I don’t believe I painted an incorrect picture of Gregg. Yes, I’ve intended to be provocative here, because Gregg’s profile as a reliever is something I don’t think we’ve dwelt on enough when we compare him to other 2008 Cub relievers.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
And if you had said "per 9 in 2008"...
I’d have had no problem with what you said. But you painted it as though Gregg walks more batters than Cabrera despite Cabrera being a starter and Gregg being a reliever. Why even add the starter/reliever part if what you’re saying is “per 9?” The starter/reliever thing becomes much less relevant when you adjust to the BB/9 stat rather than totals. Your statement – the way it was written – implied totals. It may not have been what you meant to say, but that’s the way it came across.
That was my problem with your post – it appeared disingenuous. I don’t disagree with you that Gregg has serious questions about his control, and that such control problems probably won’t sit well with Piniella (just as they didn’t sit well when Wuertz or Ohman had them). But you didn’t need to be misleading (I had said “misrepresent”, not "misinterpret") with the facts to argue your point.
Kerry wasn't perfect
He had some pretty painful blown saves, especially the few times that he actually HIT the leadoff guy. Take any sentimentality out of the equation, and it’s not a bad move, especially if Gregg is the 8th inning guy. I love Kerry, he was loyal to the team and fans, which is rare in baseball, and I wish him well in Cleveland.
However, life will go on without him.
I have nothing funny or creative to write.
by Canadian Cubs Fan on Feb 5, 2009 7:00 AM CST reply actions
There's the phrase I was looking for....
in reading this entire post. “Take any sentimentality out of the equation, and it’s not a bad move.” If you have watched Kerry since 1998 and have any blood in your veins, you hate to see him go. But who among us did not feel the same way about Sandberg, Grace, Dawson, Maddux (both times), et al. It’s simply part of the game. But when you’re honest with yourself, of all those guys I mentioned, only the loss of Maddux the first time hurt us in a meaningful way. The loss of Kerry Wood may come back to haunt us, we don’t know. But there was simply no way that Hendry could have brought him back under the circumstances, and every serious Cub fan, when they take the sentimentality out of it, knows that.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
+34 23 8 31
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
Si
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Feb 5, 2009 3:14 PM CST up reply actions
Oui
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
Sentamentality
I have it, and this trade was painful for me because of that.
That said, I think I’ll get over it if Gregg works out okay or Marmol steps up.
Believe or Leave ~Cubswynn 9/9/2008
Kerry Wood is not worth $20 million plus
The Cubs poured a LOT of money into Kerry Wood over the years and often got nothing in return. Jim Hendry telegraphed his real feelings on the subject when awhile back he said Wood was on the DL 36% of the time over the last four seasons. And Hendry professed confusement and concern over how Wood could miss a full month with a blister in 2008.
The other side of the story which continues to be dismissed is the presence of Carlos Marmol. One of the most dynamic bullpen arms in baseball who has paid his dues as a set-up man and is amply qualifed and has earned the right to close. Being closer is where the glamor and signficant financial reward is. And Marmol is ready to see what he can do.
Kevin Gregg? A solid albeit non-spectacular relief pitcher. Someone who can move into a set-up role or close. Someone also who is signed to a reasonable $4.5 million deal that expires at the end of this season.
Confusement?
Is this an entry for the BCB Dictionary. Confused Befuddlement? j/k
As for the post:
I believe Gregg will get more save chances with two-plus run leads in Chicago than he did in Florida. Not to mention the four run lead chances.
Whether or not you are in the camp believing Marmol should continue to play fireman and Gregg will close, Marmol will be the closer and Gregg won’t see many save opportunities if all are healthy.
Who knows if Gregg will even be the 8th (or 9th) inning man.
Kevin Gregg will be in the bullpen, yes. But it’s no guarantee he gets a prime setup role or the closer’s job. I look at Gregg as an upgrade over Howry at this point.
If Angel Guzman is able to stay healthy (no given), his arsenal can push him into the late-inning setup job that Marmol occupied, should Marmol move to the closer’s spot.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
Yeah, I still think the ideal situation would be...
…Gregg to Guzman (aka, Marmol ’09) to Marmol.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
That's how I see things lining up
Though going Guzman-Marmol-Gregg doesn’t bother me too much. I’d rather have Gregg starting innings clean than have him entering in high leverage situations, especially to start the season.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
Guzman?
Wow, you guys are giving the 7th or 8th to a guy that hasn’t pitched for more than one month at a time in the big leagues? Doubt it.
I have nothing funny or creative to write.
by Canadian Cubs Fan on Feb 5, 2009 2:14 PM CST up reply actions
He has the physical tools to pitch those innings
If he’s healthy (and theoretically, pitching in the bullpen should be less taxing on his arm than starting), then yes, why couldn’t he handle the 7th or 8th inning?
The Cubs will have bullpen depth this season, and should Guzman not be able to handle those innings, then Gregg, Vizcaino and Samardzija could all get looks in there.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
Well, stranger things have happened...
…and Angel Guzman has great stuff.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Yep
And there’s always a surprise or two, especially with bullpen arms. We sure do have a lot of them, though, so I doubt there’ll be too many revoltin’ developments this year.
I am guessing that if Guzman wasn’t coming off injury, he’d be ticketed as a AAA starter to get plenty of work, but my understanding is that he may not be ready to throw starter innings. I don’t know how valuable AAA innings in the bullpen would be for Angel at this point, but he’s got to get some innings somewhere. Off the top of my head we have:
Gaudin/Marshall/Heilman (1or 2 of them will be in the ‘pen, depending on schedule, Harden’s health, lunar calendar)
Gregg
Marmol
Vizcaino
Cotts
Guzman
Samardzija
IIRC, Guzman is out of options
so, theoretically, the Cubs will give him every chance to make the 25-man roster.
I think Samardzija is the more likely candidate, should Heilman look decent as a starter, to go to Iowa and get stretched out.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
Yeah, Gooz was in the running for the fifth starter's spot in '07...
…and, looking at his gamelogs, it looks like he made a few starts in May of that year. I think Angel has the stuff to dominate, he’s just never been able to stay healthy enough to pitch consistently.
I’ve still got Fully Krausened pegged for the fifth starter’s spot this year. I foresee the pen as Marmol, Gregg, Cotts, Marshall, Guzman, Vizcaino and Gaudin. Samardzija and Hart go to Triple A Iowa.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Call me crazy
but did Marmol seem like he was going to be a light’s out reliever entering 2007?
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
I don't recall it being on my radar.
I just remembered Carlos as being one of a seemingly endless array of minor league pitchers who the Cubs ran out to the mound in 2006.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
In 2006 he was a starter with little control.
Then he moved to the pen in 2007 and emerged.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
Guzman???
What have you been smoking? You don’t have a guy with Marmol’s stuff pitching the 7th inning. He’s going to either close or pitch the 8th. Guzman is a former starter who couldnt’ stay healthy, he is totally unproven and a non-factor in this discussion.
by rememberthecoop on Feb 6, 2009 11:11 AM CST up reply actions
Where did I say Marmol should pitch in the 7th inning?
Are you sure I’m the one who’s “dilusional”?
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Guzman's as unproven as Marmol was entering 2007
With his stuff, he could make the leap into some serious innings this season. His health is the main concern.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
Logic FAIL
Then you’re still dilusional I guess.
by rememberthecoop on Feb 6, 2009 11:14 AM CST up reply actions
Gregg will be fine I hope
The problem is he will always be looked at as Kerry Wood’s replacement. I think we need to get over that because if not, it could be a very bad time for Gregg in Chicago.
click "rec" at the top of the page.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Feb 5, 2009 11:26 AM CST up reply actions
Wood is better ...
but Gregg and Bradley are better than Wood and Marquis. But are Gregg and Bradley better than Wood, Marquis, and DeRosa? That is basically the way the transactions come out.
"We gotta circle the bandwagons." - Devin Hester
that would become
Wood+Marquis+DeRosa better or worse than Gregg+Bradley+Miles
or
Wood+Marquis+DeRosa better or worse than Gregg+Bradley+Font
or
Wood+Marquis+DeRosa better or worse than Gregg+whoever is 5th starter+Font maybe since those are the three replacing the three being compared to
It is hard to really say right now who to compare whom against to see the net win or loss of production from the moves until everyone settles into their 2009 roles. DeRosa may be the everyday 2B so he would be compared to the 2B, or he may be the utility playing all over, and would need to be compared to whom we use in that role, presumably MIles at this point.
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
Will Gregg Surprise Us with Good Control?
As a starter, Wood had problems with issuing too many walks. As a closer last season, I was pleasantly surprised with his only walking 18 in 66 1/3 innings.
Gregg walked 37 in just 68 2/3 innings. That’s way high. A reasonable expectation for Gregg would be to get his walks down to 4 per 9 innings. That’s still high but could be acceptable if he doesn’t give up too many hits. I don’t expect him to get his BB/9 IP down to the 2.5 range. Though, that would be a nice surprise.
"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray
Letting Wood go was not a baseball decision, it was a salary dump (and a stupid move by Hendry)
I couldn’t disagree more and I have ESPN.com’s Keith Law on my side. Comparing Gregg to Woodys is rediculous – his stuff is average while Wood misses bats when healthy. You can cherry pick stats all you want, and make excuse after excuse but the bottom line is Gregg was a downgrade for the Cubs and a cheaper alternative.
This was NOT a baseball decision, it was about money, like Marquis & DeRosa.
Any why Hendry didn’t offer arbitration to Woody is stupid. He wouldn’t have accepted, but even if he did, what a terrific thing to have him on a one year deal.
Yes, Marmol has great stuff, but how many times have we seen pitchers with dominant stuff (Farnsworth, Matt Anderson, Hawkins, et al) who weren’t successful pitching in the ninth? It takes a certain kind of guy to be able to do that and you don’t take chances when you’re built to win now.
by rememberthecoop on Feb 6, 2009 11:07 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Well, as long as Keith Law is on your side
I still disagree. Hendry didn’t want to give Wood 3 years because of his health history. That’s a baseball decision . . . and I don’t think that’s “rediculous” or “dilusional”.
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Feb 6, 2009 12:32 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
+1
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
I agree that Gregg will be a nice replacement
Although his walk rates were high the last few years, like Al stated, he did alright when he was setting up K Rod, and lets hope that he returns to those rates while setting up Marmol. Also, even if he does get into some trouble, I see Marmol coming in for numerous 4 out saves. As much as Lou used him last year, he might be coming in for 3 inning saves. But, seriously, if nothing else…he can do this…
He also...
…doesn’t chew, dip or smoke.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
"Fully Krausened" for Heilman --priceless daver--just priceless
"Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest you also be like to him."
Solomon
Thanks!
I’m not sure whether I was the first to come up with it, but I’ll be pushing it this season.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
why not just go with "Old Style"?
I wonder how many spelling variations we’ll get on Fully Krausened…
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Hm, yeah, I may be setting the bar too high in that regard...
…but I just like the sound of “Fully Krausened.” If “Old Style” catches on, I guess I’ll just have to live with it.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
either one is fine with me.
Just as long as we don’t have to start calling him “What the” Heilman…
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
closer
wood is gone.we cant do anything about it. let,s embrace the gregg/marmol connection.tell gregg to bring his funky glasses along.
Speaking of Wood
anyone able to link to the Thank You ad he ran? I never got to see it, and cannot find it
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
I tore it out of my local paper...
…and it’s sitting, folded up, on my desk at work. I’ll try to scan and post it at some point. I may need to send it to Al as a PDF and ask him to post it.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
thanks!
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
If you do that, I will post it.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
if you post it
he will come
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
Cool.
I’m not in the office today, but I’ll try to do it tomorrow.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
If this thread is still in the rec list then, I'll post it here.
Otherwise I may put it as a new FanShot.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
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