Miles: No. Fonte-- YES!
by Madlarkin on Mar 10, 2009 9:28 PM CDT
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PrintAlright, hurrah for my lame title. Really, really lame, but anyways I'm here to discuss the faux-battle at 2nd base. First, I'd like to say with some help from a respected statstician/ THT contributer John Walsh:
"Unless, of course, you want to use the spring training performance to update the projection. This has been studied many times, though, and it's generally found that spring training stats do not help in projecting the regular season. One possible exception was found by John Dewan of Baseball Info Solutions, who found that players who exceed their career slugging percentage by at least 200 points in spring training have a moderate tendency to show improved power during the regular season."
At best there is a moderate tendency to improve, but the correlation even in these cases are fairly low and the batters probably need to have a significant sample size of games played for this to apply.
Even after my introduction if you still want to use spring training stats, Fontenot is giving Miles a beating anyways:
 |
Player | |
TEAM | |
G | |
POS | |
AB | |
R | |
H | |
2B | |
3B | |
HR | |
RBI | |
TB | |
BB | |
SO | |
SB | |
CS | |
OBP | |
SLG | AVG | ||
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1. M Fontenot | CHC | 2B | 10 | 33 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | .400 | .788 | .364 | |||||||||||||||||||
|
2. A Miles | CHC | SS | 9 | 30 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .267 | .267 |
So now that that's out of the way, Its probably good to understand why Aaron Miles shouldn't be starting for any team, ever. And he most certainly should not start for one of the best teams in baseball. I'll go as far as to say that he should get minimal at bats and should be the backup for Fontenot and Theriot. None of this "get Miles and Fontenot 350-400 AB's each" junk we've been hearing from Lou.
This is Aaron Miles:
This is Mike Fontenot: 
Side note: the highlighting is just an accident, it isn't supposed to mean anything.
Since Fontenot has only been in the majors for a year or two, I'll show you that his .800ish ops isn't out of line within anything he did in the minors.
As you can see his minor league totals as well as his individual seasons, it is not unfeasible that he can be an .800 OPS second basemen and is a mid .700 OPS player if he has a bad year. On the other hand Miles is a high .600 OPS player (maybe a low-mid .700 OPS in a career year) and while that's pretty bad, he's not the worst second baseman in baseball and it wouldn't stop some team (like the royals) from starting him at second. Even the royal and pirates would turn him down once they saw how bad he is on defense.
Side note again: Again the highlighting isn't supposed to indicate anything, just a screenshotting mistake.
That's just not good enough to be playing 2nd base. -6.3 UZR and -2.3 UZR/150 over his career at 2nd base which is one of the more important defensive positions. And as you can clearly see, he is much, much worse at shortstop(though it is a smaller sample size, so he isn't that bad, just pretty bad). All in all, Aaron Miles has no business starting up the middle for any team. In fact, he really shouldn't be in the majors at all. But, that's what managers like Tony LaRussa are here for: to make a spot for scrapy, undertalented grinder types that wouldn't have a roster spot otherwise. At the very least, he should never start anywhere and get limited, pinch hit, plate appearance. At most he can get the occasional spot start.
Mike Fontenot, on the other hand, is a pretty good defender at second base.
1000 innings at second is a reasonable, but not great sample size. Fontenot basically has had 1000 innings at 2nd base and has shown to be quite good. Now is he likely to regress a little defensively? Probably, but he still should be a decent amount above average. His offense is fine at second base. An .800 ish OPS is basically what the Cubs got from DeRosa anyways with worse defense. Overall the wins they could produce in a full seasons PAs(about 700) tells the story. 
Miles:
Miles is pretty bad no matter where he plays. His defense is not good enough up the middle (not that his defense at 3rd is good either, but its not as bad) and his offense clearly isn't good enough at 3rd for him to play there.
Fontenot projects to be almost a 5.0 WAR player at second, Miles projects to be a 1.15 WAR player at second if they both were full time second baseman(700ish PAs). Using these projection as well as just an educated guess about how many wins each player could produce if they split the PAs at second I would say Fontenot is at worst a 3.0-3.3 WAR player and at best player a 3.8-4.0 player. Oppositely, Miles would, at best, be a 0.5 WAR player and at worst he would be a -0.3 (or about there) WAR player.There really is no contest. Fontenot, even if these projections are 1-1.5 wins high (which would be somewhat unlikely, but not completely impossible) Fontenot is clearly and obviously a better player. Given the full time starting job at second Fontenot can easily eclipse the 4.0 mark of this projection.
To be clear I don't hate or like Aaron Miles. I don't know the guy. I certainly don't begrudge him for finding a way to get the Cubs to pay him a few million dollars. I just think his role on this team is extremely limited as he is not a good baseball player.
The question is can Lou distinguish between two short, white players that are miles (pardon the pun, it's not intentional) apart in talent? I don't think Lou is dumb enough to be as fooled by the idea of "scrapiness" as the media/sports talk radio is. If Miles and Fontenot even come close to splitting time at 2nd base I will be very disappointed. Lou has been a pretty good judge of talent so far and I just don't see how anyone could confuse the talent of Fontenot and the talent of Miles. One is barely a replacement level player and one is an above average 2nd baseman.
I suppose I should give thanks to a few people because these projections are not mine. I sure am not sure I would have had the mathematical abilities to crunch the WAR numbers on my own anyways. Thanks to MB21 (or you may know him as Maddog) at ACB for taking Tango's formula, taking a multitude of projections (MARCELS, CHONE, Bill James, THT, etc) and crunching the WAR numbers (He may have gotten a method to calculate the formula from Colin Wyvers, if so thanks to him as well). The rest of the info I got from Fangraphs, Cubs.com, and The Baseball Cube.
Here's to many starts at second for Mike Fontenot and to quality bench warming by Aaron Miles.
Cheers,
ML
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Double dawg dang
This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).
look closer...
Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team
by carmen_fanzone on Mar 11, 2009 8:05 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm pretty sure all of those are tables. This is a graph
Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog
are you positive, though?
Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team
by carmen_fanzone on Mar 11, 2009 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Googling this word and applying it might help.
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
Thanks for the criticism, I do appreciate (not being sarcastic)
I had a lot to say and had lots of tables to put in, but I enjoyed doing it. I will endeavor to be more concise if I post again.
It might not be a bad idea to try to copy in the source code for those tables from the Fangraphs pages
The formatting might be off though, since they probably have different css
Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog
That they do.
I tried that method, but it was a train wreck. I couldn’t line anything up correctly. So I just screenshoted, saved the images to Photobucket, and posted. Not the most efficient way, but its the way I know how to do it and it works… somewhat. =P
LSA
+1, rec’d, I read every word.
"Those are my principles, and if you don’t like them, well, I have others." - Groucho Marx
impressive
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
great post
I really hope LBR gets a ton of abs this year. If he can be a poor man’s Dustin Pedroia from the left side…I’ll take that
Precisely
great post
I really hope LBR gets a ton of abs this year. If he can be a poor man’s Dustin Pedroia from the left side…I’ll take that
Pedroia was something like a 6.0 WAR guy last year.. Both play good defense, both were underrated because they were really short. Fontenot will not be Pedroia, even if Pedroia had a bad year and Fontenot a great one, but that is very apt comparison to make. As you said a poor man’s Pedroia.
Anyways sorry about the problem with the tables, I had to minimize a few of them pretty hard to make them fit. I’ll try to do better next time. Thanks for reading
Cheers,
ML
No need for apologies.
People can be a bit whiney around here sometimes. Good stuff.
http://thegettinplace.blogspot.com/
Except Pedroia was a great base stealer
and LBR rarely ran.
Reed Ballgame - best CF in the MLB
by californiachicagoan on Mar 11, 2009 6:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Correction
Pedroia was something like a 5.1 WAR player last year.
http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/p/pedrd001.htm
Actually
by Fangrpahs, he was worth 6.6 WAR. Rally’s WAR uses Total Zone Rating, which isn’t as high on Pedroia as UZR is. Also, his BRAA is about 10 runs less by Rally. I guess that he has a heavy park adjustment for Dustin, which would make sense as he really uses the Green Monster to his advantage.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 11, 2009 3:27 AM CDT up reply actions
That's fair.
I just took the baseball-projections.com site WAR numbes, which isn’t as high on Pedroia as Rally’s WAR, but I think Rally’s projection is probably closer to correct. Pedroia was a damn fine player last year and to relate this to Fontenot, he can be a lesser version of Pedroia.
Rally's WAR is the Baseball Projection one
I should have made that clearer.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 11, 2009 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
You probably know more about this than me.
I was just using the projections I’ve seen, and yes I badly misrepresented Pedroia, and pointing out that Miles is awful and Fontenot is a nice player. Thanks for helping me out vivaelpujols, I appreciate the helpful suggestion.
I agree with that completely
Excellent post also. I feel for you guys next year if Lou plays Miles more than Fontenot. I know that it was infuriating for me to watch Tony play him so much over the last 3 years.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 11, 2009 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions
I can imagine
Both Eckstein and Miles prevented the Cardinals from getting a real SS or 2B after Renteria left. I could only take so much Eckstein/Miles/Kennedy before I went insane.
I liked Eck
He could take a walk at least, but to surround a short, scrappy, no power MIF with 2 more of the same is just too much.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 11, 2009 11:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Did TLR's constant love of Miles/Kennedy get to you
as it got to me from afar. I was frustrated listening to him gush over those two from afar. It must have been sickening from up close. Those two we’re about as sucky as one can get.
There's no way...
… you are going to see both of those guys get “350-400 AB”. There just isn’t enough playing time for them to do that.
While spring stats mean little, it appears Fontenot has impressed Lou enough by his play this spring to possibly win the job fulltime. Plus, without a true backup SS on the roster, that job falls to Miles (unless a deal is made by the end of spring training).
My guess is that what you’ll see is Fontenot more or less the fulltime 2B, with the occasional day off from Miles (mostly against LHP), and Miles doing that plus playing SS from time to time.
We’ve discussed this before, but it seems possible that since the Cubs have been scouting Bobby Crosby, they might be able to make a bad-contract swap with the A’s and send Luis Vizcaino to Oakland. Crosby’s been hurt most of his career and appears to have lost most of whatever hitting ability he had that won him the ROY award in 2004, but at least he’s a shortstop. As a backup, he’d be expensive — but then, so is Vizcaino — it’d be a way of getting Vizcaino off the roster, and maybe save a bullpen slot for Angel Guzman.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Well
If Miles does assume a utility infielder role, than he will probably get 350-400 at bats. I would think that Fontenot would be the starter against righties, while Miles would play against lefties and would see some time a short, third (and maybe pitcher).
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 11, 2009 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Since when do utility infielders get 400 AB?
Example: last year Ronny Cedeno was the Cubs’ main “utility infielder”. He got 216 AB. He was used in more or less typical fashion for a utility guy — late inning defense, occasional PH, occasional starts.
If Fontenot starts vs. LHP and Miles vs. RHP, Fontenot gets 400-450 AB and Miles gets about 200.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
FWIW, that sounds about right to me.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
Finally, a voice of reason. 200 AB's for Miles should be plenty.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 11, 2009 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions
200 AB's for miles is about 200 too many
We know he won’t be taking any walks, so that’s pretty much the number of PA’s he’ll have too.
But but but
Assuming we don’t pick up something better, I think Miles will get somewhere in the middle between your guess of 200 and what DeRosa got as a supersub last year, 500. This doesn’t mean I think he’ll get somewhere between 200 and 500, it means I think he’ll split the difference, which would be about 350. Someone’s got to take up some of those DeRosa and Cedeno AB’s. I don’t know how many AB’s DeRosa got as an OF, but I’d be surprised if it was much more than 150. But I like surprises sometimes.
Miles got 400 AB last year
He played time at short and 3rd and started a lot of games at second. With the Cubs dearth of infield depth (similarly to the Cards last year) Miles will get a lot of at bats.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 11, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions
I guess anything's possible at this point.
If Koskie and Fontenot work out the way many of us are hoping, however, Miles will have to back up only Theriot and the forementioned Fontenot, which will pleasantly limit his ABs.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
I still don't see it.
Theriot is (mostly) the starting SS. Fontenot is (mostly) the starting 2B. Give Miles 100 AB at each and that gives the starters a break, and Miles his 200 AB.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Who
would backup 3rd? And if the answer is Fontenot or Theriot, who would take over 2B or SS for them?
Hopefully, Corey Koskie.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
That's my hope too
But after reading an article about him, and hearing that he’s almost a lock to start in AAA, I am not assuming his presence. I am guessing Hoffpauir will take that last spot, unless the A’s are crazy enough to take Vizcaino for Crosby or something.
So I don’t mean to drag this out, but if we only have one backup infielder for 2B, SS and 3rd, and it’s Miles, and we think he’ll get some spot starts at all those positions as well as the inevitable at bats he’ll get from double switches, doesn’t it seem like 200 AB is a low guess?
+1
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
The only time Theriot should be standing near third base...
…is when he hits a triple. Sadly, given the state of his slugging percentage, that is a rare occasion. Fontenot has been playing some 3B in spring training, so has Aaron Miles. I’m with Al – praying that Koskie works out.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
R/L splits
You cannot deny that Fontenot was used almost exclusively against RHP last season (222 vs RHP, 21ab vs. LHP). He has only about 70 career at bats vs. LHP. This is going to skew his numbers.
Also, Miles gives the flexibility of being a switch hitter. His numbers were pretty even across the board vs. righties and lefties. Now I am not saying that I prefer a platoon or am advocating Miles play exclusively but those projections are based off Fontenot getting at bats vs. lefties as well when he rarely faced them last year. He was rarely put in a position (against LHP) that did not cater to his strengths. Basically what I am saying is that I don’t think you can project a true Mike Fontenot unless you have a sample of at bats vs. LHP.
Really Small Sample Size Last Season, But...
Fontenot did get 7 hits in 21 AB’s against LHP last season. He likely wouldn’t get 50 hits in 150 AB’s against LHP, even if he got that many chances against southpaws. I don’t see him getting anywhere remotely close to 150 AB’s against LHP in 2009.
Realistically, I could see Fonty hitting around .270 or so against LHP this season, if he was a full-time player. That’s strictly a guess on my part. To your point, we don’t know have enough information on which to go to “project a true Mike Fontenot”. .270 wouldn’t be bad, but I think Miles as a right-handed batter can bat better than .270 against LHP.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
Actually, to set the record straight
And yes there is still a crazily small sample size on his statistics, but Colin and MD already have adjusted for his regression against increased LHP. Even in you halved his defense and dropped 10 points off of his wOBA he would still be a 3.4 WAR player.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/fontenot-miles-better-than-aaron
As I said, the issue here is his defense. Maddog has choosen, for simplicities sake to stick with the 14.1 UZR/150 over his career. Basically 3.4 is one of the more pessimistic WAR projections one could make (because this guys is, for the sake of providing a worse case scenario as well as just a reasonable analysis).
All 8 projection systems Colin/Maddog used already factored in the way he would respond to being a full time player, ie dealing with LHP. MD averaged the projections systems CAIRO, MARCELS, ZiPS, JAMES, CHONE, PECOTA, CBS, and THT for batting. You could do a more complex way of synthesizing these data sets, but there would be only a marginal improvement in the batting runs you would get for Fontenot. As I said at worst he is a 3.0-3.5 WAR player at best he is a 4.8 WAR player (full playing time, and everything goes perfect for him).
How's this for a side bet?
I got a buddy who is a big Reds fan…We be $20 buck on the upcoming regular season, specifically number of HR by “little” Fontenot vs. number of W’s by Aaron Harang. I get the cash if Font has more HR’s than Harang has W’s.
Should be fun…
What’s you prediction?
Wow, interesting bet.
Looking at the projections for both players on Fangraphs, this really could go either way. In fact, Bill James is projecting a tie.
I saw Harang on the Reds 30/30 show on MLB Network and he’s dropped a lot of weight. Of course, that may not be a good thing if it means he’s lost muscle mass and, therefore, velocity. Then again, it’s hard to imagine him being as bad as he was last season given how good he was in previous seasons. Then AGAIN, if Fontenot does win the second base job outright, gets more ABs and really explodes at the plate – he could easily hit 15 to 20 bombs and win this contest going way.
Alright, damnit – here goes. LBR wins 17-12.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
Well, editorially speaking....
…this Fanpost is pretty difficult to read because those charts do appear quite blurry (on my screen at least) and they give the layout a very choppy, bewildering appearance. Going forward, my advice would be a little less graphics and a little more linkage and summary.
With that out of the way, I COMPLETELY AGREE. In fact, it’s weird to see this here, because I was pretty much having the exact same thoughts (though in a slightly less stat-heavy way) on the way into work this morning.
Given the fact that Fontenot is proving himself to be a plus defender at second base, I think it’s a worth a shot playing him full time – even if he struggles somewhat against LHP (which is, by no means, guaranteed). He’ll still likely save the team runs in the field.
And, yes, Aaron Miles would still be able to relieve Fontenot occasionally at second base – particularly against LHP – to guard against overuse. In fact, Miles can be used to backup both Fontenot and Theriot on a regular basis, as well as serving as a late-inning pinch hitter (to bunt/sacrifice runners over; he is a good contact hittter).
The key to this plan really being a slam dunk, however, is Corey Koskie. If he can win that 25th roster spot, Miles can be restricted to only shortstop and second base backup, while Koskie would give the Cubs a true third baseman to back up Aramis.
Of course, assuming this does come to pass, that would then leave the team vulnerable at first base. But, again, I’m hoping Koskie could learn that position on the fly. Oh, and Miles UZR/UZR 150 numbers at SS are awful, but there is no perfect solution here, is there?
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
I think it would be beneficial for Koskie to go to AAA.
He’s been out of baseball for over 2 years and I think he would benefit from playing on a regular basis. If he was on the opening day roster, he would likely spend most of the beginning of the season sitting on the bench waiting to pinch hit.
In the minors, they would also be able to monitor his health as he gets back into the routine of playing baseball daily. If all goes well, he could be brought up after a month or so.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Mar 11, 2009 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions
That makes sense.
And in the meantime, Hoffpauir gets his shot at 1B/PH role. Now, I don’t want Micah to fail, but Lou’s decision to call up Koskie when he’s ready might be a lot easier if Micah struggles. Not sayin’…just, y’know, sayin’…
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
The new sig
is a gem.
http://thegettinplace.blogspot.com/
First Fanpost was a little rusty.
I’ll work on it next time. More links, less graphics. More room for analysis too.
Aaron Miles is going to play a lot
In fact, I think he will play more than Mike Fontenot when all is said and done. I have no opinion on this one way or the other, merely stating what I think will happen.
How do you have no opinion on this?
Fontenot is CLEARLY a better hitter than Miles, and he’s as good a fielder. There’s little argument for playing Miles over Fontenot as anything other than the RH bat in a platoon situation.
Is it that you realize that Miles isn’t as good but don’t want to admit that Piniella could make a mistake in judgment? Or do you really not see a difference in ability between the two players?
Don’t get me wrong: I’m not saying Fontenot is a world-beater. He’s proven only to be a very capable hitter against RHP, and is a complete unknown against LHP. But Miles has proven throughout his career to be a solidly below-average offensive player. He’s decent (not great) at getting singles, he doesn’t walk, he doesn’t get extra base hits, he’s not a threat on the bases.
Miles As Utility IF
Do you think that Fontenot will only play 2B, while Miles will get time at 2B, SS, and 3B? Is that why you think Miles will get more playing time than Fontenot? That scenario could play out.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
Well
I like Mike Fontenot, but it gets forgotten around here that Lou Piniella smartly and selectively used in 2008. Hopefully Fontenot is up to the challenge of logging more playing time. But I’m not sure about that until proven otherwise. Something tells me that Fontenot is a valuable player who is best optimized starting a few days a week and otherwise pinch-hitting in pursuit of grabbing 250-300 at bats.
I am not a big Aaron Miles fan, but what I am saying is that I see him getting distinctly more at bats than Fontenot in 2009. Some of those at bats might come at shortstop (ugh), but most will come at 2nd I believe.
How bout you do this for Hill & Bako ?
HILL YES is my ST slogan. Gee he is batting two hundred points higher, is MUCH better defensively and will cost
a million less. but Dusty oops I mean Lou likes Vets according to our own Blou.
"I daydream just like everybody else, I just do it with my body facing the field, so everybody thinks I'm paying attention."- Greg Maddux
Well, I'm not sure how far citing his batting average in spring training will get you.
And I’m not sure how much better Hill is defensively either. But I’m rooting for Koyie, too. He’s a feel good story, and it would be cool to have a homegrown catching corp.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
I think Hill is probably the better choice...
… given his age and that he’s a switch-hitter.
But don’t expect him to hit .350. I’d settle for .250.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Oh, and daver?
Hill’s not homegrown. He was originally a Dodger, then a Diamondback.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Oh. Who knew?
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
impressive
and loved the tables too, that was pretty nice, lazy as i am i enjoyed not having to click a link. nice analysis. oh, and down with bako up with hill too…though you know how this one will turn out.
Hendry's been hittin the bottle...
Nicely done - hard to argue
Rec’d
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
According to Fake Teams
Fontenot leads the league in TB and Hoff is 5th.
Interesting, but still ST.
V.ery D.elusional N.incompoop
Until I think of something better :D
Whether we like it or not,
I think Miles is gonna get a decent amount of AB’s. I think Fontenot is better off platooned, and while that gives him the majority of the AB’s, Miles will still take between 150-200 AB’s at 2B. Theriot and Ramirez are going to need rest here and there, allowing for even more AB’s for for Miles.
Not to rehash, but I still am a bit dumbfounded by the DeRosa deal. The Cubs saved a couple million bucks(would have been more w/o signing Miles) just to open up a space for Miles and bring in a few youngsters(not nearly good enough to be called prospects). Why? Between the days off Ramirez, Bradley, Lee and Fontenot are all going to get, DeRosa would have got plenty of at bats, and would have been far, far better than Miles. I don’t think I’ll ever understand that move.
The DeRosa trade
freed up the money for Bradley, and got us pieces that may have gone into a Peavy trade. I have no idea why they gave money to Aaron Miles while they still had Cedeno on the roster, unless he was part of an aborted Peavy deal as well. Either way, Hendry definitely jumped the gun on the Miles signing, and I wish he had waited
Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog
Really?
They didn’t save that much money unloading DeRo and signing Miles. Was 2.5 million the difference maker in the Bradley signing?
Yes and no
The Cubs needed a LH middle of the order hitter, and did need some extra money to sign Bradley. Since Fontenot is a more than adequate replacement for DeRosa (if not an upgrade, depending on how you value positional flexibility) and makes league minimum, clearly DeRosa was the one who had to go.
Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog
Also, I should clarify
I think the Miles signing was a terrible, terrible signing, even if he had signed for league minimum. He’s not particualrly good at anything. He had a career year last year and was barely a league average player.
Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog
As long as...
… Miles is used strictly as a Cedeno-like utility player and NOT a platoon player, I don’t have a problem with him. For one thing, he won’t have the brain farts that Cedeno often had.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Miles shouldn't be a utility player
The only position that he is close to average defensively is second base (and pitcher). He has been a truly awful shortstop in limited time there and has been terrible at third also.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 15, 2009 6:12 AM CDT up reply actions
Then what you're saying is he's pretty well a completely useless player.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Great. That's all we need. Another wasted roster spot.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 15, 2009 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
The problem is
We signed Miles, but still need another bench infielder. Cedeno (or an equivalent utility player, if you aren’t a Cedeno believer) could play credible defense at other positions – most notably SS. I don’t mind paying for someone with no bat as a backup IF if he at least has a decent glove at all the positions he’s supposed to back up. Miles is only an average 2b and terrible at SS and 3b, which is why we’re still looking for someone who can credibly play 3b. Why not just sign someone who can actually play every position, so we aren’t using 2 roster spots for something that can be filled with one guy?
Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog
Well put.
Miles looks like a bad signing right now. Perhaps he’ll do what DeRosa did for Jim Hendry and surprise people. But given the way the rest of the FA market went and the players that are available now by trade, it looks like Jim Hendry jumped too soon, just because he was trading DeRosa.
I suppose the one thing the overpayment to Miles could do is that if he was going to be a Card unless we paid what we did, then the effect this has had on their roster could justify the cost. Right now the Skip Schumaker experiment at 2B isn’t looking that good.
Bold 2009 Cub Prediction: Of the Cubs' OFs, Joey Gathright ends the season with an OBP second only to Milton Bradley.
We would have been better off
letting Miles stay with the Cardinals, as it would make them a worse team. Miles stinks, and we would have done ourselves a favor by leaving him in St. Louis.
That's a likely scenario.
I’m hoping Hendry’s scouts saw something again that projection systems aren’t able to see, because Miles projects terribly.
Bold 2009 Cub Prediction: Of the Cubs' OFs, Joey Gathright ends the season with an OBP second only to Milton Bradley.
anyways
Please keep the tables, it makes it easier to go through the analysis with the reference on the page. (for those that don’t like them, there is a scroll function on the side of the window). Great work. (some posters seem afraid of numbers)
by doug dascenzo's change-up on Mar 16, 2009 11:57 PM CDT reply actions
I'm not afraid of numbers.
I just think a bunch of huge blurry charts do more to inhibit the readability of an otherwise solid analysis than they do to help it. The numbers would be easier to read if I could just click on a link, open a new tab and read the chart clearly.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
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