Minor Metrics
by tim815 on Mar 13, 2009 8:14 AM CDT
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PrintI may be a bit early with this, but better early than never. As players start getting farmed out, let us know which minor leaguers you are keeping an eye out for, and what stat is the one you will be watching.
Many of you are far more knowledgable about our system than I am (I truly appreciate the daily farm reports), and I hope to hear from some of you here.
My three for now are....
Josh Vitters, Fielding Average
Wellington Castillo, Batting Average
Andrew Cashner, wh/ip
I'm so novice at it, I haven't even included what I consider acceptable.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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A suggestion
To you. If you already do this disregard. I have as my favorites all the minor league affiliates websites of the Cubs. I enjoy following the teams and players over the course of the season.
So if you no longer want to be a novice set up your favorites and enjoy!
"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"
i did that for awhile....
until i found this site. the daily roundup did the trick last season.
i’ll still go back on occasion. like to check on those three or whoever else.
I'm sure Josh (and others if he can't) will post the daily roundups again this year.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Yes
it is most liked the daily recaps that is. I like it because a nice daily read, quicker. On the weekends when I do have more time, I will check the sites. Nice to compare daily recaps here to stories on the minor sites.
"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"
Wellington has the soonest path to the Bigs
So if he can hit like Soto did (or in the class) in AAA this year, than that would be an interesting development. Catching could become a real cache for the Cubs especially if Koyie Hill continues to hit as he is in the Cactus League.
Not too many catchers who can actually hit their weight (with gear on).
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Catcher is one of the deeper spots in the system
Castillo, Clevenger, Perez, Cerda would be the upper echelon, followed by guys like Flores, Brenly and a couple others. The first group has decent upside, enough to bear watching on their ability to reach the majors and contribute. The 2nd group is a bit iffier (although Flores is so good behind the plate if he can simply be a passable hitter, he should be solid). Perez is a guy I’m watching all year – all the tools are there, although catchers develop slow, so have to judge him with some perspective.
I'd think that...
… Castillo has a real good shot at being Soto’s backup as soon as next year.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
If he's in the system
There’s a shot. That said, with this new determination to have lefties everywhere, and with Welington being one of the better chips in our system for this upcoming season, if he progresses (and that’s a big thing, because as much as I’ve talked him up … it’s based a lot on defensive and offensive potential that has yet to be reached), I think he’ll likely be a trade chip before he’s on the big league roster (for an extended period, that is). With the talk being that the Cubs are quite high on Steve Clevenger, to be honest, I see a greater chance of Clevenger making it as our backup backstop than Castillo, as he’s not likely to generate Castillo’s value (if both develop that is), but Clevenger offers a potentially decent (for the position) lefty bat behind the plate, so the question becomes whether his receiving skills can develop enough.
if hill gets to go north..
will we have legit catchers in aa and aaa?
phrased differently, would keeping bako slow any of the above mentioned catchers down?
it’s nice having catching prospects. i remember thinking “damon berryhill isn’t that bad” in the day.
Well
Castillo is likely in AA or AAA, Clevenger in High A/AA, and Perez in Low A probably, with Cerda likely on a XST/Boise path. Not sure what the expectations for Shawn Wiemer are, but he could slot in A ball, with Luis Flores and Michael Brenly also potentially slotting into A ball. It’s been noted that John Contreras, an older guy who slugged in Arizona Rookie last year, is getting tried at catcher. There’s also a guy like Blake Lalli, who is below average defensively, but will be curious how his bat plays, and he’ll likely be in AA. Alvaro Sosa was a bit talked up a little while back.
Just to be clear, the only ones that should garner higher intrigue would be the first 4, with Flores/Brenly as maybes (well … Brenly’s more of a maybe for me due to bloodlines).
Let me add one other thing
the only one that is mildly considered a high level talent is Castillo right now, with Clevenger as a guy who, if he makes it up, is a backup, and Perez/Cerda as raw, undeveloped assets.
Damon Berryhill?
What about Hector Villanueva? A mans man.
HaHa
Damon Berryhill! Loved him (obviously).
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living." ~Alvin Dark
by DamonBerryhillsMitt on Mar 16, 2009 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Vitters will hit for avg
I would be more concerned with how his power and plate discipline progress. He has tremendous bat speed and hand-eye coordination
churchofbaseball.com
Vitters in AA at End of 2009?
I would like to see Vitters play for the Smokies Labor Day weekend when they come to Jackson, TN, to play the Diamond Jaxx. He’ll probably start the season with Peoria, but he could make it to Tennessee by his 20th birthday.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
That will be agressive
but if he handles Daytona, it might be possible.
If he starts the season in Peoria (and he might start in Daytona) then I don’t think he makes it to Tennessee by then.
by Josh Timmers on Mar 13, 2009 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm following ALL the minor league players
And you should be able to get daily minor league reports from me once the season starts. Even about the lame guys who have no chance to ever play in the majors, or so I’m told.
But since you are new here, go and search my fanposts during the regular season. That’s the type of minor league coverage you can expect here.
I enjoyed your articles in the Cubs annual, Josh.
In fact, because of one of those articles in particular, I’ve got my eye on Jay Jackson, RHP. (Uh, and I guess I’ll be watching his K/9 and K:BB.) By the way, is it me or does he bear a passing resemblance to Mariano Rivera?
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
Here you go.
Jackson:
Rivera:
Passing, maybe.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Hm, yeah, they don't look all that similar there.
But the photos in the Cubs annual made me think of it.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
First off
Thank you very much. I appreciate the kind words.
Second, I think I have Jackson ranked too low on the prospect list. But I’m always cautious about people who come out of nowhere and have a good season, or in this case, a great half season. Fluke seasons happen in the minors a lot, and I generally like to see a track record (either in the minors or in amateur ball) before moving people up really high.
Having said that, if Jackson pitches this year as well as he did last season, he’ll be a top-5 prospect by May.
If he pitches that well...
… he could even be a September callup. The Cubs organization likes to promote the top prospects quickly, which is a huge change from pre-Tim Wilken days.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
It'll be interesting what the Cubs do with Jackson
There are some rumors/spec that they are looking for him to get fast tracked. Personally, I think that’s the wrong move. Furthermore, with Cashner in the system, if we want to fast track someone, I’d go Cashner, as his future is definitely in the pen (little chance a fast-tracked guy is pitching critical starting innings late in the year for us, and Cashner’s future, barring a surprising development in his change, is out of the pen). He’s definitely one of our top talents (I had him at 3), and I’d rather be safe and try and see if he has the arsenal to start, and if so, developing that.
I wouldn’t go so far as to say the Cubs like to promote quickly for all prospects. There’s enough examples of the Cubs slow-playing things (and one glaring one would be Josh Vitters, who some felt could’ve been pushed back to Peoria late in 2008). I think they have a tendency, as do many teams, to want to push college guys up a bit, and you could see someone like Ryan Flaherty, assuming he starts out at 2nd base in Daytona, as most are anticipating right now, to be in AA … if not AAA (depending on how Tony Thomas performs, and of course, how Ryan performs) by year’s end. But the toolsier crop and the HS crop could get slowplayed a bit.
Fast-tracking Jackson
I certainly think he has the talent. The bigger issue with Jackson is that both I and the Cubs believe he is a starter and I don’t see where calling him up to the majors in September helps to prepare him to be a top starter. Unless the Cubs have a lot of injuries and/or are out of it, I don’t see Jay Jackson getting a start in the majors in September. They could put him on the Samardzija plan, but it seems to me that 1) The Shark is going back to AAA to work on being a starter and 2) If the Cubs are going to give starts to a rookie in September, the Cubs are going to give them to Samardzija.
I’m really curious to see where Vitters starts the season. I think the Cubs want to start him in Daytona, and I think he can handle it. The Cubs really hate having their top prospects play in the cold of the Midwest League in April. However, there may be developmental reasons (playing it slow) and political reasons (making Peoria happy) to start him there. Still, I’d start him in Daytona along with Flaherty.
by Josh Timmers on Mar 14, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions
To me...
… for someone with as much upside as Vitters, there isn’t much point in playing him in Low-A. He should be at Daytona, weather or no weather.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I think that's what the Cubs are probably thinking
in that, they played it safe with Vitters for the past year, whereas most of his class had moved forward, and that is the way it is looking right now. I’d just caution against unrealistic expectations. He’d be making a level leap and facing much more advanced pitching.
That's the way things are shaping up right now
With Flaherty at 2nd and Vitters at 3rd in Daytona, with probably Samson at shortstop and Rosa at 1st. Daytona was already shaping up to be our most intriguing team at the start of the year, and if Vitters is there, that would add to it.
Just to be clear, what I’m saying is that Jackson shouldn’t be fast tracked, but there is some spec that he may get pushed, if he is pitching well.
On Josh Vitters
Let’s not go overboard on Vitters, yet, folks. I like Vitters, but a better talent in Mike Moustakas struggled in the MWL last year. If Vitters gets jumped to Daytona, sure, he gets warm weather to start, but he also gets to deal with more advanced pitchers. Now, I hope he can get pushed and move fast, but there’s also a good chance that he struggles a bit. I think a 2011 ETA is still a positive scenario to look forward to – the idea of pushing for him to be ready by 2010 is a bit unrealistic, IMO.
Do you think Moustakas
is a better talent than Vitters? I don’t. I know some people do and the KC Royals did, but I’d rank Vitters, on talent alone, ahead of Moustakas. Moustakas might have a little more power, but that’s it.
The other thing, and this actually argues in favor of sticking him in the MWL, is that Vitters is a full year younger than Moustakas (11 months). Vitters was, and still is, really young. For the people who criticize how slow the Cubs are with him, they should remember that last year really should have been his first year in the pros. If you consider him a guy who came out of high school last year and tore up the NWL last year, then he was very impressive.
by Josh Timmers on Mar 14, 2009 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes, I do
Moustakas projects to hit for more power while still hitting for a good average. Vitters will probably be the better average guy, if both pan out, but it won’t be a huge difference and Moustakas’ power should compensate (again, if both pan out – but judging on talent right now). He’s got similar defensive tools to Vitters at 3rd base (which isn’t a positive for either guy, as both are iffy to stick at 3rd, but both have a shot). Neither has much speed in them, Vitters has slightly better arm strength but Moustakas has more than enough to handle third or a move to RF.
One more note on Vitters – there was some spec that the Cubs, based on some rumors last year, held Vitters at Boise for disciplinary reasons (nothing serious, more to make sure he “plays the game the right way” type stuff).
Everything I heard
about Vitters is that he was nothing but a model citizen up in Boise. Didn’t once complain about spending the whole summer there. I don’t believe there were any “disciplinary” reasons for keeping him in Boise. Sounds like idle speculation and gossip.
by Josh Timmers on Mar 14, 2009 6:50 PM CDT up reply actions
The spec I heard came from people out in Boise
Let me be clear, I am saying spec, though. Furthermore, I didn’t say anything about “model citizen”.
There were supposedly several incidents where the staff got frustrated with Vitters at times. One incident was during a game when Vitters didn’t run out a play and the staff immediately yanked him. Supposedly some other small incidents like that throughout the summer. Again, a make sure he “plays the game the right way” type situation. I’m not saying that was the reason he was kept in Boise, as his age and coming off injury were also factors, but supposedly this was one more nugget that led them to decide to hold off on pushing him up.
Again, before anyone starts jumping on this, this was just rumors/spec I heard from people out in Boise. And let me reiterate, I am saying he wasn’t a “model citizen” or that these are serious issues. They aren’t.
I had a few long minor league posts back in January
Nothing’s really changed, but let’s see, some things to watch out for.
a) A ball pitching. Most of our top arms should be in the A ball ranks, and there’s plenty of guys to get some attention. A “legacy” guy like Casey Coleman is under the radar a bit, but he has a nice 3-pitch arsenal that if he develops, he could project as a middle of the rotation arm. Chris Carpenter still has electric stuff that I’m more intrigued with him than Aaron Shafer. Robert Hernandez’s 2 pitch combo, along with Jeff Believeau’s, both bear watching. John Gaub might move up quick as a LOOGY, and I like Chris Archer’s upside.
b) 2nd basemen. It’s one of the deeper spots in the system, and let’s see how things shake out. Can Tony Thomas bounce back in AA? Will Ryan Flaherty make the expected move? Can Josh Harrison be a leadoff option, can Jake Opitz hit with pop? Dwayne Kemp reminds me a bit of Mike Fontenot. Junior Lake will be a guy to probably watch around midseason.
c) Brandon Guyer – The toolsy OF is likely to start in Daytona. Can he mash his way from a top 15 prospect (I had him at 12 or 13) into a top 5 type talent? If he does, he has become more consistent.
d) Power – Will it emerge? There’s not enough power bats in the system to begin with, but will some of the guys take steps forward? There were poor reports on Jericho Jones last year, despite his gaudy numbers. Ridling hit into some bad luck in Peoria – the MWL won’t be kind, so can he avoid a Ryan Norwood type situation?
I’ll come back with some more thoughts when I get a chance.
Before I forget
I will watch Casey Lambert, Jeremy Papelbon, Matt Smith, Bill White, Jason Waddell and a few other lefties closely. Considering how iffy our lefty pen situation is, the lefties in our system could get an opportunity this year. In particular, former 6th round pick Lambert, who offers a plus curve to go with a high 80’s fastball that has solid movement on it.
One thing that surprised me was
that we cut the cord on Ryan Acosta. The former 2007 12th round pick, the late Oscar Acosta’s son, had intriguing raw ability. He ran into difficult personal issues last year. I haven’t had time to check if there were specific reports on why he was released, so maybe I missed something, but with his raw ability, it caught me by surprise a bit. I haven’t been able to follow spring that much, though, so maybe there’s news out there that I missed.
Weren't there injury issues too
with Acosta? I was never high on the guy and didn’t understand how in the world BA put him in their top 30 prospects. I honestly believe it was an issue of scouts who were friends with his late father pumping him up to BA.
by Josh Timmers on Mar 14, 2009 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions
There were injury issues
but part of it was due to the long layoff and then trying to rush back. That said, it’s not as if losing Acosta is that big a deal. Just caught me by surprise a bit, considering the personal situation he had to deal with last year. Off the top, I think it had something to do with his mom, but it’s been so long that it slips my mind right now, so I’ll look it up at a later point.
I saw Waddell pitch in a spring training game a week or so ago (on TV)...
…and I liked what I saw. He seemed like LOOGY material.
Also, minor league question: Is Carmen Pigniatello still around? He seemed pretty high on the radar at this time last season.
Enjoyed your article in the annual, too, toonster!
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
I think he's still around
but I could be mistaken. Thanks … I really think I could’ve done a better job with that article, though. First time around mistakes. Finally got my copy and there’s some things I wish I had done better.
I do appreciate the pretty pictures that were put in.
Pignatiello is no longer in the Cubs organization.
I’m not sure when the Cubs let him go, but last week he signed a minor league deal with the Twins.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
ah thanks
no big loss. I mean … people complained about Rich Hill being a junk guy – Carmen was a poor man’s Rich Hill, not as good curve, not as good fastball. With the addition of the three FA’s this offseason, along with Gaub potentially moving fast, we have enough to stock lefty options in the upper levels of the minors.
gaub may be worth watching then?
i reaaallly hope we get something out of that trade.
Gaub/Archer/Stevens are
all worth watching, with varying degress. Stevens more as a guy that could get called up if an injury happens (or be a secondary piece to a deal), and the latter two for their upside. Gaub is intriguing because his velocity has never come back since his collegiate injury … but sometimes it takes time. I doubt it, but if he gets his old mid-90’s velo back … that said, with a low 90’s fastball and a nasty slider, he could still project as an excellent LOOGY, if he develops. Archer is a kid with excellent potential, a good looking breaking ball that gets decent velo on his fastball right now, and he could get better. That said, he is inconsistent.
Thanks for the info, Al.
Yeah, Piggy never appeared to be a worldbeater, but (IIRC) he was an Illinois guy and a Cubs fan. It doesn’t seem like he ever recovered from his awful showing at the very beginning of last season. C’est la vie.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
Starlin Castro, SS
apparently he could be a stud SS. I’ll be keeping an eye on his BA as he is supposed to be an excellent fielder. Hopefully he can develop into an all around player.
I'll be curious what we do with Starlin
I think he may be at Peoria early in the year, which would be pushing him a bit, but he does have a lot of excellent tools to build upon.
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