My Cubs Top 20 Pitching Prospects

by toonsterwu on Mar 15, 2009 4:12 AM CDT Comment 17 comments

I’m not going to write as much as last time, largely because there hasn’t been much to change. I meant to do something like this last time, but the interest in the minors wasn’t as high in January. For longer comments, go back and look at my old posts. I had 29 pitchers in my top 50 prospects last time, with another 10 arms fairly close. Only going 20 deep right now. I’ve made some minor changes (as I always note, I am just a fan, so I don’t ever stop and say, this is our list and leave it at that. Furthermore, top prospect lists are more for discussion value). The system is a bit deeper in pitching than hitting, but that isn’t saying much as overall, the system is weak. That said, as I’ve noted, I like the crop of arms we got in the last draft. What do I judge on? Short of it is, I try to judge on everything to get as good a picture as possible. Granted, with the pitchers from the last draft, there isn’t enough performance yet. The projections are best case scenario (with worst case, obviously, a guy flaming out). One final note is that, even if a guy didn’t make my list, that doesn’t mean that I don’t think they won’t make the majors. There’s a lot of other guys that could fit into roles in the big leagues.

1. Jeff Samardzija. Always best to try a guy as a starter before shifting him to the pen. Has the electric stuff, but can the secondary offerings improve? Consistency is key. I see his starting ceiling more as a 2/3 type.

2. Jay Jackson. There are some concerns that his status is based off a “Rich Hill” scenario – that is, a plus breaking ball in the lower levels allows him to dominate. Furthermore, sample size is small. But as I’ve said before, the upside is ridiculously good, and I can see Keith Law’s reasoning to put him ahead of Shark. I hope we slow play this one, as I think he has top of the rotation potential. People point to the need for a 3rd pitch, which is true, but his change and curve are actually usable (the change being more important), albeit both needing more work. No serious mechanical issues, although some tinkering is needed. Should be in Tennessee at some point, but could start in Daytona.

3. Andrew Cashner. There are some folks that think the Cubs will still stretch him to see if his change develops (and thus, becomes a starter). If he’s not, he’s a power pen arm that features a power fast/slider combination (we sure have a lot of fast/slider guys in the system). Electric stuff, like Ceda (Ceda probably had the better stuff), but before anyone gets too far ahead of themselves with Cashner love, he has to become more consistent, otherwise he’s more Kevin Gregg than Brad Lidge. Should be in Tennessee at some point, but could start in Daytona.

4. Marcos Mateo. The big mover and shaker. To think, we got him for Buck Coats. As I always note, I am just a fan. I didn’t realize, when I made my list in January, that he was consistently in the mid-90’s, with a hard slider that clocked in the high 80’s/low 90’s and was appreciably more consistent. Steve Holley noted that some thought he had the best stuff in the system. The change does need work, though, for him to advance as a starter (and to deal with lefty bats), but he’ll probably be in Tennessee to be a starter this year. He’s probably more of a mid-rotation guy if he pans out.

5. Mitch Atkins. A close to ready arm that profiles as a back of the rotation starter or a pen arm. Not sure if he gains enough juice with a pen move to ratchet up the intrigue.

6. Esmailin Caridad. Caridad and Atkins are still close, and I still haven’t budged. Caridad does have nice mechanics, and if he can get a little velo bump on the fastball, he becomes that much more intriguing and jumps ahead of Atkins. Nice 3 pitch arsenal and throws strikes. Mid-end of the rotation strike thrower.

7. Dae-Eun Rhee*. I can’t let go of the health factor for now, and how far away he is. More than likely, the health won’t be a big problem. If health wasn’t a factor, I’d be pondering him as a 3rd or 4th pitching prospect in our system (probably 3rd), considering his excellent 3 pitch arsenal and showing at Peoria. Potential front of the rotation arm if he develops, but let's wait until he gets back.

8. Jeff Stevens. A 4 pitch arsenal, Stevens, a former starter, gets some bonus points for readiness, but he’s more of a middle reliever in the making, with perhaps a chance to develop into a setup man. His velocity picked up a bit when he was moved to the pen.

9. Dan McDaniel. I am a big McDaniel fan. Part of me wants to see him start, as he might be a nice power arm (and again, I believe in the whole, “try everyone as a starter if you think they have some ability before shifting them to the pen for good” philosophy). His arsenal is only a small notch below Cashner’s, and he might be more consistent right now. Should be in an A ball affiliate. If they keep him on a pen track, then he could see Daytona quickly.

10. Kevin Hart. Give him a point for readiness. That said, he is what he is, and that looks to be a middle reliever.

11. Chris Carpenter. Stuff matters, and Chris has it, with an excellent fast/curve combination. Sure, he was inconsistent last year, but I’m willing to give him a mulligan on that. Gotta improve the changeup to develop as a starter. In a best case scenario, he develops into a TOR arm. Peoria or Daytona.

12. Casey Coleman. I’m higher on Casey than a lot of folks, and I know that. Good lineage, good velo on the fastball, good movement on the fastball, and a change/curve combination that holds promise. Add in that he’s only moved to full-time pitching recently, and I love the potential here. I see him more as a middle of the rotation projection if he pans out. Probably starts in Daytona.

13. James Russell. I thought I overreacted a bit on Russell when I made the list in January. He still has a good fast/change combination, and everyone knew he was rushed last year. He showed signs of success. Add in the good lineage, and I gave it another thought and slide him up. If his breaking ball develops, he’s an intriguing mid-end of the rotation type lefty. Keep in mind, though, out of college, some thought he was a pen projection. He might be able to be a late inning lefty (8th inning type) out of the pen. Expect him to start in Daytona or Tennessee.

14. Aaron Shafer. Nice three pitch arsenal, but let’s see if he can get his velocity inching back upwards consistently. Projects as a mid-end of the rotation possibility as of now. I think he starts in Peoria.

15. Casey Lambert. With a plus curveball to go with a solid high 80’s fastball that has good action, Lambert screams LOOGY. Considering our big league lefty situation, he bears watching this year, but probably starts in Tennessee or Iowa.

16. Rocky Roquet. An excellent fast/slide combination, Roquet improved his consistency down the stretch. Should start in Iowa, potentially as their close. Looks like a middle relief/setup guy in the majors.

17. Jeremy Papelbon. Jeremy Papelbon, who, after small hiccup in May, settled down. A nice 4 pitch offering, he should be a solid lefty pen option. I can see him developing into a jack of all trades type pen arm (lefty specialist, long man, spot starter), akin to what Sean Marshall was doing last year. Should be in the upper levels this year, with a shot to reach the bigs.

18. Alessandro Maestri. The first Italian showed improvement in Daytona before succumbing to injury. That said, he still has an excellent slider to go with his fastball, and projects as a middle relief arm. Think Michael Wuertz, perhaps (it’s meant as a positive, although maybe I shouldn’t say that, as many seem to have a horribly negative view of Wuertz).

19. Justin Bristow. Another draft pick from last year, Bristow has a 4 offerings, with his fastball in the low 90’s. He is, like Jackson and Coleman, another guy that only made the move to full-time pitching recently, and I’m hopeful that he’s able to push forward somewhat. Expect him in A ball, probably Peoria. Upside is hard to tell right now, but probably more a mid-end of the rotation type unless things pick up.

20. Larry Suarez. I had a tough time deciding on this last one. Part of me likes the raw upside of the hard throwing lefty Antigua. Part of me thinks Hernandez can take a step forward. That said, the nod goes to our big international signing a couple of moons ago. Suarez came back and flashed his upside last year, albeit, in a really small sample. He does have top of the rotation ability, so he bears watching in the lower levels. I think he’s on a XST/Boise path for 2009.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Thanks for the post.

I always enjoy reading about our prospects, especially the ones lower in the system. Keep up the good work.

You have three guys in the top 20 that are relatively new to pitching. That seems like a lot of promise as well as a lot of question marks. Is it unusual for a team to be somewhat dependent on that many guys that are new to pitching? Or is that just a sign of our weaker system?

by Tate491 on Mar 15, 2009 12:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

New to full-time pitching

This goes in line with Wilken’s preference for athletes. The belief being that, a better athlete may be less susceptible to injuries. of course, there is the added bonus of potential untapped upside … along with the fact that maybe they don’t adjust.

by toonsterwu on Mar 15, 2009 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

great information

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 15, 2009 12:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow, this sounds like a professional scouting report!

Where do you get all your info? Have you gone to see each of these guys pitch last year, up close?

Just curious?

If you think you've seen it all...just wait!

by CubFanSince1970 on Mar 15, 2009 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i believe this was directed to toonsterwu

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 15, 2009 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've seen several

but not all. As I always note, I am but a fan, so some of it is stuff I’ve seen, some of it is stuff I’ve read, some of it is stuff I’ve heard.

by toonsterwu on Mar 15, 2009 10:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for starting the discussion

I used to be able to do stuff like this before my wife and I had a baby. :-)

Here is my reaction to your list.

I like Rhee, Shafer, Maestri and Hung-Wen Chen (who you don’t list) a lot better than you.

Rhee and Shafer are both coming back from injuries. I’m more optimistic about Rhee. Lots of pitchers come back strong from TJ surgery and the guy was unhittable in the MWL. Rhee is still young and should recover nicely. Shafer has the talent, but as you allude to, he doesn’t seem to be where he was before his arm troubles at Witchita State. Still, I like him a lot better than a lot of other names on the list.

I think you are right about Maestri being Michael Wuertz, at least the good Michael Wuertz. I guess I just value that more than you do. His WBC-performance should have his stock rising too. That strikeout of Magglio Ordonez was a thing of beauty.

We’ve already had a talk about Chen. I like the way he throws strikes and think of him as a Bob Tewksbury-type pitcher (or Chien-Ming Wang with worse stuff.)

You like Marcos Mateo more than I do. I don’t think he throws enough strikes, and hard-throwing guys who don’t hit the strike zone tend to get eaten up as they run into more selective hitters at the higher levels. Having said that, his walk totals in Daytona weren’t bad. But his strikeout totals weren’t great, either. But you are right that getting him for Buck Coates was a a steal.

You have the nepotism-trio in the right order, but Coleman is the only one I can get excited about at all. I think Suarez will be a lot higher on your end of the season list, but I think we’d both like to see him pitch outside of Arizona. Boise should be a real test for him.

by Josh77 on Mar 15, 2009 1:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I like Mateo, too.

But I was surprised to see Maestri so low on your list; I think he could move up quickly if he’s healthy this year.

Chen is also an up-and-comer, IMO.

Thanks to toonster and Josh for all their hard work on the Cubs minor leagues.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 15, 2009 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

very good stuff toons....

I will try to get to the CO Springs Sky Sox games with Iowa in early May to see some of the prospects.

Anticipate that Atkins, Cashner, Samardz(?), Stevens and Mateo among others.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Mar 15, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

As good as Maestri's slider is

Is he more valuable than a guy like Casey Lambert? I don’t really project Maestri to be a setup type, so we’re looking at a righty middle relief arm and a lefty middle relief arm. Roquet has better juice on the fastball, and his slider isn’t that far behind, so if Rocky is consistent (funny how we’ve had two Rocky prospects in recent years), I like his chances of being a setup arm more than Maestri. Papelbon was tough. Admittedly, all these pen arms are close.

As with all rankings, to each their own, but for me, the 4 pitchers from 11-14 have starting potential, and that is a huge plus for them. Now … I actually think Maestri showed enough last year to project as an end of the rotation type starter, but he’s headed for the pen. If there’s one starting arm that may be high, that would be Shafer.

Chen’s a nice arm, but he’s an end of the rotation arm with a high 80’s fastball and solid secondary offerings. Maybe he gets a bit more juice with his sinker out of the pen, but considering how he pitches right now, that seems unlikely. Looks headed for a pen role in the minors as well, well, perhaps more of a swing man. Has a shot to reach the bigs, but value becomes a factor here. He’s not that much better than a Billy Muldowney or Marco Carrillo. I like Chen, and I want him to succeed for some personal reasons, but I won’t let that cloud my opinion, which is all that this is. If he reaches the bigs, he’s a dime a dozen pen arm, more of a long man/middle relief option than say a Maestri, who would be more a 7th inning type.

by toonsterwu on Mar 15, 2009 11:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Rhee – I fully admit, I’m being overly cautious there. As noted, if he was healthy and pitched as well all year as he did in the outings he actually made, I’d put him as the third prospect, with consideration for number 2. I’m cautious with injuries – considering Rhee didn’t have any serious mechanical concerns that people noted, the TJ surgery was a bit surprising, so I’m taking a wait and see on that. There are certianly some positives to look forward to that could help, such as most people anticipating he’ll get stronger (simple physical maturity factor).

I addressed Maestri below.

Shafer – A nice arm, but when I look at the whole picture, he just doens’t have the stuff to be more than a mid-end of the rotation type starter as of now. Now, I can see a case of being ahead of Kevin Hart, who’s a middle reliever that got bonus points for readiness. Furthermore, maybe a case over Jeff Stevens. Those two got bonus points from me for readiness, but they are both middle relief arms. But I just don’t see the upside in Shafer, and I think a lot of people give him bonus points on account of his draft status. Now, if his fastball velo came back a bit, and if he was sitting more in that 90-93 range, sure, then I’d take his polish over Carpenter and McDaniel’s upside. Stuff wise, Russell and Shafer are fairly close, and Russell being lefthanded got the nudge from me, but sure I could flip those two and not bat an eye.

Mateo – Stuff matters. If that slider is on and sitting high 80’s/low 90’s … well, then the difference between him and Cashner is nothing, and Mateo might deserve the nudge ahead. After my January posting, I went learning … and I think most consider Mateo’s fast/slide combination close to Cashner’s, if not better. Add in his strong finish and that he’ll be in AA starting, and I don’t see many guys that have a case to be ahead of Mateo. I’m not as worried about the K totals relative to some sort of indicator on his stuff as most indications are that, as of now, the lack of a third pitch was what limited those K’s as of now. Of course, he has to be able to deal with lefties, so that change would be needed to stick as a starter, otherwise he joins in our long line of pen arms.

We talked about Chen? Well, I responded below to Al as well as to why I have Chen outside my top 30 arms in the system (although I am open to sticking him at 30). Comparing him to Chien-Ming Wang is also something I don’t see. Wang throws a hard sinker that can run in the low 90’s that touches the mid-90’s. Wang’s height certainly helps him out there. Saying Chien-Ming Wang with worse stuff … well, that’s very broad. Justin Berg is Chien-Ming Wang with worse stuff (Berg’s sinker is a bit harder than Chen’s). Maybe you can compare Chen’s stuff to Wang when Wang was in the minors, but that was because Wang didn’t pick up the 2-seamer until late, and Wang’s physical build is something Chen won’t ever have (and Chen does need to probably shed a few pounds).

Papelbon is on there more because of his value to the organization as a ready left handed pen arm that can go long, and he was excellent against lefties and was effective against righties last year. Am I excited about him? Nah … there are guys with more potential in the system that I didn’t list (Antigua, Hernandez, Beliveau), but he could hold value soon for us, which was something I factored in.

Russell was a guy I initially had a harsh reaction to after the year (off the top, I think I had him as the 22nd or 23rd arm in the system back then), considering how he struggled. That said, everyone acknowledges that he was rushed. The breaking ball looked better at the end of the year than it did at the start, and the quality on the fast/change hasn’t diminished. He had a horrid May/June in AA, but actually looked headed in the right direction in July and was pitching better than. Looking at the whole body here, I think there’s enough to say … okay he was rushed, let’s see what he can do. Am I excited about Russell? He’s not a top 5 arm in terms of excitement for me, but he’s not far behind. Granted, the benefit of being a lefty has to be factored in.

_________________________________________________

That said, I would close on what I always say for everyone that reads this, and other posts – prospect lists are more for discussion, and it is very subjective. Furthermore, I am but a fan. I actually haven’t followed baseball much this entire winter. The last note would be … by year’s end, we could be looking at a completely different picture. The Royals had a kid last year who they thought would really progress, but he faltered. The attrition rates on pitching is so high that if 5 of these guys reach their maximum potential, we should be jumping for joy.

by toonsterwu on Mar 15, 2009 11:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wish the Cubs hadn't tried to convert Cashner as a starter

Starters are more valuable, but we’re eating into a lot of his prime while trying to develop him as a starter post-college, when he has already excelled as a reliever.

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 15, 2009 8:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I would say

that I don’t disagree. I don’t like the chances for the change to develop that much.

That said, always best to try a guy as a starter. Furthermore, for all the talk about stretching him out, they very well could go the route of “extended” pen outings in the minors where he comes on for a few innings, instead of just one. Or he could go the Ceda route vintage 2008 where Ceda started a bit, only to get him to work on his secondary offerings.

I do think his future is in the pen, and it may simply be talk right now.

by toonsterwu on Mar 15, 2009 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rec'd

Always love when your posts show up on the little list to the right. Great post. Nice to see our system isn’t totally screwed for the next few years

"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher

by Musicdude10 on Mar 16, 2009 1:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You know....

You’re points basically admit that Ceda (think Lidge) was the better part of the Gregg deal. Too bad the cubs couldn’t have seen that too.

by arrowman on Mar 16, 2009 3:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You mean the overweight pitcher who has been hurt as well?

Let’s see him actually pitch before we compare Ceda with Lidge.

by rlpete on Mar 18, 2009 9:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just to be clear

I’m not, and I wouldn’t, compare any prospect to any top level major leaguer. I always hate the “next so and so great player” type projections because those are the exceptions. I mean, remember when Brendan Harris was thought of as a potential top starting positional asset?

A few comments on this -

What’s done is done, but I wasn’t a fan of the Ceda-Gregg trade then, which I posted here about.

I do think Ceda has better stuff than Cashner.

I still think Ceda will be in the bigs at some point this year, perhaps as their closer.

Early indications are that the injury wasn’t a big deal for Ceda, but that the Marlins just didn’t have enough time to see what he had.

Ceda’s weight is around 250, according to this Sun-Sentinel article. Considering his body type, that’s solid enough. Not great, but solid. When you consider that a couple years ago, he was supposedly near 300, that’s pretty solid work.

by toonsterwu on Mar 20, 2009 5:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs