Which 12 pitchers make the cut on opening day??

by Steve Sax on Mar 16, 2009 8:02 AM CDT

We know Lou will probably carry 12 pitchers on the roster. 5 Starters and Heilman are a given. Marmol and Gregg are sure things as well. That leaves 4 spots but who?

Viscaino? Will be hard to trade given his price tag.

Guzman? I'll be very disappointed but he's not cutting it.

Guadin? is stinking it up. Does he stay or is he traded as Al suggested?

Patton? Possible. Probably not.

Hart? Ready?

Samardjiza? Minors?

Wells? Ascanio? Stanton?

Cotts is most likely in as the only lefty.

Sorry if I missed anyone and for misspelled names.Who do you think are our 12 on the roster come opening day?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

Tweet Comment 52 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Wells, Ascanio & Stanton are probably out.

The biggest question, I think, is whether Gaudin is traded or just outright cut, because I think he has pitched his way off the team.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Mar 16, 2009 8:49 AM CDT reply actions

Gaudin

i’m really disappointed with him. I looked at Gaudin as a veteran who could pitch well both out of the bullpen and in the rotation as Terry Mulholland did in 1998. I feel the Cubs need someone like that on the staff, but Gaudin doesn’t appear to the that guy. It could very well be Heilman.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Mar 16, 2009 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions

Oops, Gaudin

He doesn’t appear to be “the” guy or “that” guy.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Mar 16, 2009 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions

Yes Lou's patience is fairly transparent or lack there of....

The tell is the thought about carrying Samardzija who fulfills the role that Gaudin was “projected” to carry which was a middle relief/swing/back up for Harden.

Piniella said yesterday that the decisions pivot off of Heilman, if/when he is the 7th inning guy as hoped, than Marmol/Gregg are late inning guys and Cotts, Vizcaino are situational middle reliever guys. The starters appear to be certain; Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster and then Harden/Marshall (depending on whether Harden is ready). The first 20 days the Cubs don’t actually need a 5th starter so your presumption of carrying 12 is not one edged in stone.

So if 11 pitchers where Marshall is the swing for the first 20 days or so then we have pretty much identified 10 pitchers—— the decision then comes to whether Guzman finds a way to make the team without showing consistency in ST or Patton is carried on a Rule V.

Samardz, my thoughts are that he is moved to AAA unless Harden is not ready, then he travels to Houston and Chicago.

Back to Gaudin and Guzman. Vizcaino is not valuable or tradeable right now in the economics of 20% or more lost revenue projection, but Gaudin and Guzman are more bankable. Moving them for a genuine 4th middle infielder is something that is within the realm of probability. Gaudin appears to have more value in that he has history of not being hurt, but a 4-player deal that includes some lower level prospect and someone like Macier is really do-able.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Mar 16, 2009 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions

Finally here is hoping the Cubs can thrive on 11 pitchers

Lou has come to figure out that rest in the club is key to winning in October. Carrying 14 position players where a 4th middle infielder, 5 OF’ers and a 3B/1B back up looks really interesting.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Mar 16, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions

Has Lou made statements confirming...

…he’d go with 11 pitchers? This would be news to me.

"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09

by daver on Mar 16, 2009 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions

my guess

we take 11 north with one on the 15 day dl.

patton makes the team. lou could’ve thrown him (off the bus/into the doghouse) after his 2 walk performance against japan, but didn’t.

trades will occur, as hendry has hinted.

i’m guessing at least 4 teams in our division would be glad to give gaudin a pass for a miserable spring so far. and maybe even guzman.

not guessing the final eleven/twelve until deals are cut.

but i enjoy reading people’s tea leaves.

by tim815 on Mar 16, 2009 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions

You might have it sussed out.

Gaudin, if not traded, could wind up on the DL. He’s sure pitching like he’s hurt.

If he’s not hurt, trade him.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Mar 16, 2009 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions

They probably shouldn't try the dumpster excuse again, though.

Maybe go old school – banana peel.

"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09

by daver on Mar 16, 2009 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions

Polio?

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 17, 2009 6:57 PM CDT up reply actions

Veteran?

The kids 26. I still have a lot of trust in him though.

"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti

by wrigleyrocker12 on Mar 16, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions

Indeed

Agreed – Gaudin is done with the team, and Gooz is hist. too IMO. He has had years to pull his “potential” into reality, but too many control issues. PAtton sticks, I’d think. Too much talent to let him walk back to the Rox. Kevin Hart has had one shut down inning. Yesterday. He has a fine arm, but just no consistency yet which irks Lou to no end (in general). If he has an option, he’ll be stashed. Wells and Ascanio are 1st call-ups, or injury replacements I’d think.

by The E-Man on Mar 16, 2009 10:10 AM CDT reply actions

I think it's still a bit early to call any of these races...

…but I’d agree that Gaudin and Guzman are on the bottom looking up at this point. And I just haven’t seen the consistency out of Hart that he showed in late ‘07 – and I’m assuming Lou hasn’t either. Viscanio is hardly thrilling, but he may stick merely because of his veteran status. If I had to guess right now, I’d say:

1. Big Z
2. Lilly
3. Demp
4. Harden
5. Marshall
6. Marmol
7. Gregg
8. Fully K
9. Cotts
10. Vizcaino
11. Gaudin (pulls it together late in spring training)
12. Waddell (surprise second lefty given early season shot a la Pigniatello last season)

Guzman is traded. Hart goes to Triple A. I make this prediction with no joy. I’ve always like Gooz, and I hope I’m wrong. But given Hendry/Lou’s predilection for shedding long-time Cub, out-of-option guys (Cedeno, Pie), I could see them cutting ties with Angel when he fails to show any consistency for the remainder of spring training.

Just an off-the-cuff prediction, really…

"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09

by daver on Mar 16, 2009 10:31 AM CDT reply actions

Waddell or Patton might be the Dark Horse

along with Hill

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Mar 16, 2009 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions

regarding patton

i’ve seen him pitch once (twice if you include the replay of dome’s broken-bat single).

does anyone have a comparison for him? if his upside is ‘potential seventh inning guy’, then keep waddell (or don’t trade gaudin, who has a better upside and is slumping) and bring shark to wrigley.

if he has ‘difference making potential’ roll the dice, i say.

thanks in advance.

almost made this a fanpost. if you think it should be one, feel free to start one.

by tim815 on Mar 16, 2009 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions

Guzman will go to Baltimore

It’s where they all wind up, eventually. And if he does get traded, I’ll be disappointed – he always seemed to be on cusp of breaking through, only to be let down, whether by injuries or inconsistency.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Bill Potter on Mar 16, 2009 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions

Guzman ain't going to make it

Cub organization has stuck with Guzman a very long time and it is past due for him to deliver results. His spring has been bitterly disappointing, to the point where it is time to waive him and say bye-bye once and for all.

by BLou on Mar 16, 2009 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions

I wouldn't call it bittterly disappointing

I’d go with tantalizing. One outing, Guzman looks as if he’s found “it,” only to struggle the next time out. Unfortunately, if that continues over the next 3 weeks, I don’t think he’ll be in the organization come April 6.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Bill Potter on Mar 17, 2009 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions

If that's true...

… let’s hope he throws well enough to impress someone else’s scout so the Cubs can at least get something in return, instead of just waiving him.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Mar 17, 2009 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions

Or, if he continues to throw poorly

he slips through waivers, though I don’t see that happening (I think Baltimore really would snap him up).

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Bill Potter on Mar 17, 2009 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions

too much upside to slip IMO

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 17, 2009 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions

I don't understand

Why so much importance are being given to these spring training games. I mean, If Marmol had his mid season slump from last year would anyone want to make a decision based on that?

I think Guzman has so much potential that you give him the benefit of the doubt and you bring up with the club to the regular season. I didn’t agree with the clubs decisions to trade Wuertz and Cedeño, although I think Heilman will be very valuable. I think you stick with Gaudin too, who has a track record. Unless you see that his stuff is not the same, such as losing 4MPH on his fastball, then I would not make any decisions for now, or even the end of spring training. Carmen Pignatiello had a great spring last year and then he stunk it up in the bigs. That’s how much spring training can tell you. You certainly want to see improvement, but again it could just be a normal slump.

Btw, Bruce Miles made an interesting comment, that he think Gregg will be the closer and Marmol the set up guy.

by Luis on Mar 16, 2009 11:49 AM CDT reply actions

Well, like I said, it's a little early to call anything.

I think we’re just having some fun trying to project/predict what’s going to happen based on what we know right now. Oh, and Guzman’s out of options so, if I’m not mistaken, he either heads north with the club or he’ll have to clear waivers to be sent down (and then brought up) anywhere.

"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09

by daver on Mar 16, 2009 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions

Marmol setting up Gregg isn't a bad option

Theoretically, Marmol’s arsenal of pitches is better than Gregg’s, which helps in high-leverage situations. Marmol is a known quantity in that he can come into the middle of an inning with men on base and get out of the jam.

Gregg, with his high walk rate (at least last year), may be better suited to beginning an inning fresh, with no one on.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Bill Potter on Mar 16, 2009 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions

nothing better

than a leadoff walk to begin the ninth, eh?

Lou: hit Aramis 3rd for the love of everything baseball.

by kylejo on Mar 16, 2009 10:10 PM CDT up reply actions

Or HBP

like Woody pulled off a couple times.

I have nothing funny or creative to write.

by Canadian Cubs Fan on Mar 17, 2009 6:37 AM CDT up reply actions

no reason that inning he starts couldn't be the 8th inning, could it?

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 16, 2009 11:07 PM CDT up reply actions

No reason at all.

Though would you rather have Marmol entering with 2 men in scoring position and 2 out in the 7th, getting out the inning and throwing the 8th, or seeing Keving Gregg entering then?

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Bill Potter on Mar 17, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions

My position is well known.

I want Marmol in that situation. And I suspect we might get him there. As I have said all along, I think the Cubs pen is better served by Marmol setting up Gregg, than Gregg setting up Marmol.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Mar 17, 2009 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions

I'm still on board with this as well.

"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09

by daver on Mar 17, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions

I like it, too.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Bill Potter on Mar 17, 2009 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions

those aren't the same situations!

you guys seem fixated on the order of the relievers (Marmol→Gregg vs Gregg→Marmol) instead of the situations (2 men on, 2 out vs bases empty, start of inning).

Why not utilize the bullpen to each relievers’ strengths?

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 17, 2009 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions

That's what I am saying

Marmol’s strength lies in getting out of jams, while Gregg seems best-suited to starting innings fresh. So why not set up the bullpen so that Marmol is available for high-leverage situations (which he was last year) and allow Gregg to enter in bases empty situations?

I think, in that scenario, Gregg would be entering the 9th with a clean slate. If the Cubs could get to Gregg without using Marmol, then you still have him to clean up should Gregg falter.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Bill Potter on Mar 17, 2009 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions

Precisely.

Look at how Marmol got out of his own jam just this past Saturday. Once that slider starts snappin’, he can strand runners with the best of ‘em. I don’t have the same confidence in Gregg.

"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09

by daver on Mar 17, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions

key point - his own jam.

It would have been disastrous if Marmol had come into a jam and pitched that way. Luckily he started the inning with a clean slate and worked his way out of it. And IIRC, Gregg threw a scoreless 1-2-3 inning that same game -can’t remember if it was before or after Marmol, but doesn’t matter much in ST.

So at least for that game, those two performed opposite of expectations offered up by many here.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 17, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions

Hm, that's true. But I choose to ignore your factual analysis and, instead, post a picture of a cat in a garbage can...in Japan.

"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09

by daver on Mar 17, 2009 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions

Hello Kitty?

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Bill Potter on Mar 17, 2009 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions

well the only response I have to that is...

…pound kitty litter!

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 17, 2009 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions

That's not a garbage can.

Look again. It’s a bicycle basket.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Mar 17, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions

Ohhhhhhhh yeah.

And, look, there’s a little panda bear windmill thingy stuck to it.

"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09

by daver on Mar 17, 2009 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions

well my point is...

what if you get through seven innings and you’ve already used your other bullpen guys. I’d go with Gregg in the 8th and then Marmol in the 9th.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 17, 2009 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions

I can understand that

In that scenario, if you started the 8th with Gregg, I’d be fine with it, because he’s entering the game with no one on base.

If he got into a mess, Marmol could be used, provided he was fresh enough to go 1+ innings that day.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Bill Potter on Mar 17, 2009 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions

Cub bullpen is becoming a BIG worry once you get past Gregg and Marmol

Our middle relief scares the crap out of me. It should you too. Keep in mind the Cubs have two classic 6 inning pithchers in Ted Lilly and Rich Harden, plus another starter in Sean Marshall who struggles with stamina.

by BLou on Mar 16, 2009 4:54 PM CDT reply actions

Take a look around MLB

If the Cubs pen is becoming a worry, most teams must be nearing catastrophe!

I have nothing funny or creative to write.

by Canadian Cubs Fan on Mar 17, 2009 6:38 AM CDT up reply actions

I think the Cubs have four reliable arms

Heilman is quite reliable and Vizcaino against RH batters is also reliable along with Marmol and Gregg. Now Cotts could move up into that slot——meaning you need at least one more—-a real LOOGY would be nice——and a swing/LR/spot starter would be grand.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Mar 17, 2009 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions

If I had to guess?

Harden
Zambrano
Marshall
Dempster
Lilly

Gregg
Marmol
Heilman
Vizcaino
Cotts
Patton
Waddell

Gaudin (DL)
Samardzija (AAA)

by Damen Jackson on Mar 17, 2009 11:34 AM CDT reply actions

You mean my prediction...

…that Waddell makes the pen actually may have some traction?! Somebody get me up top!

"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09

by daver on Mar 17, 2009 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions

Hadn't seen it before...

But yeah, I don’t think Lou is going with a single lefty, regardless. Especially when it’s Neal Cotts.

by Damen Jackson on Mar 17, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, I based my guess on three things:

1) Lou mentioned recently that he’d like another lefty in the pen, 2) Lou singled Waddell out early in camp as someone who’d caught his eye, and 3) I happened to catch Waddell on TV throwing an inning and I liked what I saw – he seemed to have good poise on the mound and looked like he at least had the capacity to give left-handed hitters some trouble.

"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09

by daver on Mar 17, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions