Cubs really bad at 1st round picks
by DTJchris on Mar 17, 2009 4:28 PM CDT
60 comments
There's this article by Jim Callis of Baseball America that I read today (thanks to MLBtraderumors) about the success rate of first round picks, or more accurately, drafting players which go on to significant careers. In his estimation, 42 percent of all first round draft picks since 1965 have gone on to "significant" careers. Callis categorizes significant careers as this:
In terms of significant careers (1,000 at-bats, 300 innings or 100 pitching appearances), 42.1 percent of the first-rounders from 1965-2004 have achieved that distinction. Another 15-30 players from those drafts, such as Josh Hamilton, should reach those milestones, which will move the percentage closer to 44 percent.
Which got me thinking about 1st round draft picks by the Cubs and their success rate. What I found is that the Cubs completely fail when drafting in the first round. Of the 44 first round picks the Cubs have had since 1965, only 10 players (22 percent) have gone on to "significant" careers. Here's the list:
Roger Metzger (1969)
Scott Thompson (1974)
Joe Carter (1981)
Shawon Dunston (1982)
Rafael Palmeiro (1985)
Doug Glanville (1991)
Kerry Wood (1995)
Jon Garland (1997)
Corey Patterson (1998)
Mark Prior (2001)
As you can see, this isn't the most distiguished list of players to ever take the field. And I would say half those players, Joe Carter, Shawon Dunston, Rafael Palmeiro, Doug Glanville, and Kerry Wood, went on to what would be considered "good" careers. I am not sure in Callis' estimation what percentage of players go on to good careers.
Another thing I found funny in this article, in a sad sort of way, was this:
The best draft for producing first-round big leaguers was 1990, which went 22-for-26... The 1993 first round did the best job of producing significant big leaguers, going 17-for-28.
In 1990, the Cubs drafted Lance Dickson. In 1993, the Cubs had two first round draft picks, they drafted Brooks Kieschnick and Jon Ratliff.
Anyway, just wanted to share this tale of woe with my fellow BCB'ers.
EDIT: I didn't include Derrick May on the list, which I should have, so it is closer to 27 or 28 percent probably.
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I wouldn't say Prior's career has been significant
And granted Dusty killed his arm the Cubs can’t get a free pass because people knew his mechanics were messed up when he was drafted.
Derrick Rose-2009 ROTY Tyrus Thomas-2009 MIP...hope I'm at least half right
by CHCOWNTHECENTRAL on Mar 17, 2009 4:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
By the estimation of Callis
Prior qualifies because he had 106 career starts. But yes, I agree, I wouldn’t say Prior had a “good” career
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
by DTJchris on Mar 17, 2009 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and all that stuff that we heard
before and when he was drafted about Prior mechanics being “perfect?” What is that about. I don’t think that it is fair to say that everyone knew his mechanics were screwed up. All anyone ever said at the time was about how perfect they were.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
by Archie on Mar 18, 2009 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Prior's mechanical downfall
was his arm provided too much “umph” instead of “going for the ride”, like Tim Lincecum
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 18, 2009 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
not as bad at the Bears
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 17, 2009 5:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
But they rock in 2nd round picks
Maddux ( of course)
"I daydream just like everybody else, I just do it with my body facing the field, so everybody thinks I'm paying attention."- Greg Maddux
by Doggie Stalker on Mar 17, 2009 5:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You don't think Palmeiro
had a good career?
Played for 20 seasons, 569 HRs, 3020 hits, 1800+RBIs…I’d say that’s at least “good” even with the steroid test.
by ScottT on Mar 17, 2009 5:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Jon Garland (1st round, 10th pick, 1997) should be on your list
Derrick May, too?
"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland
by flachimesa on Mar 17, 2009 5:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
My mistake
I actually was meaning to have Palmeiro on the “good” list but forgot to add him. And with Garland, I had said we had 10 players but only listed 9, he was supposed to be on the list but forgot to put his name.
As for Derrick May, I didn’t even think about him at all, so I added a note on the bottom.
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
by DTJchris on Mar 17, 2009 6:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If you list Scott Thompson as significant, you have to include May
May = significant ???
Doesn’t sound right, but better than Earl Cunningham
"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland
by flachimesa on Mar 17, 2009 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, you are right
I don’t know why I forgot May while writing up the list. That’s why I put the edit on the bottom instead of changing everything cause he wasn’t even on my radar when I wrote the post.
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
by DTJchris on Mar 17, 2009 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Cubs really do suck at drafting players
Note to self: What team has the most “significant” draft success?
"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland
by flachimesa on Mar 17, 2009 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Revised: The Cubs really do suck at developing players
"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland
by flachimesa on Mar 17, 2009 7:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure about all time
But over the last 5 or 10 years, I’d have to say the Rays.
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
by DTJchris on Mar 17, 2009 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Rays have had plenty of chances to pick high in the draft
David Price ’07, Evan Longoria ’06, Delmon Young ’03, B.J. Upton ’02, Rocco Baldelli ’00, and Josh Hamilton ’99 are some significantly good 1st Round picks.
"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland
by flachimesa on Mar 17, 2009 7:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Suck" isn't that bad a word and I usually allow it here, and say it myself at times.
But it didn’t really look that great in a headline. I changed it.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Mar 17, 2009 6:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
lol
thanks Al. I was going for the attention grabber approach.
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
by DTJchris on Mar 17, 2009 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You got my attention!
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Mar 17, 2009 7:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Kevin Orie "qualifies" but I wouldn't waste the space
"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland
by flachimesa on Mar 17, 2009 6:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
He cost Wood a no-hitter.......
…………E – 5
BELIEVE!
by cubbie08 on Mar 17, 2009 10:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only slightly off the subject
Scott Thompson was a fantastic prospect who was great all the way through the minors and then was ruined and misused (not used) when he got to the majors. Sometimes it isn’t the scouting and drafting that is poor. You can blame the coaching along the way too.
by PalatineRol on Mar 17, 2009 6:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
and players
peak at all different levels and stages of their career. Sometimes you peak at AA and it has nothing to do with scouting, coaching, preperation, or desire, just the way it goes sometimes.
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 17, 2009 6:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thompson
I agree with you for the most part, but not on Scott Thompson. The Cubs couldn’t figure out what they had. I am of the belief that he would have been a good major league hitter .
by PalatineRol on Mar 17, 2009 7:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you re: Scot Thompson.
Thompson could have been a Mark Grace-type hitter if the Cubs had realized what they had. I think because he was 6-3, the Cubs wanted him to be a power hitter, which he was unsuited for.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Mar 17, 2009 7:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I went down that "formula" road myself
Standing at 6’3" and 210 pounds and playing 1B in high school, I was expected to hit for power. I was a hard line-drive hitter, hitting for high averages my entire HS career. My infrequent HRs were frozen ropes and never of the towering variety.
Every scout and college coach told me that I needed to hit for power or become a SS. Corners and outfielders hit for power!
I became a disc jockey instead.
"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland
by flachimesa on Mar 17, 2009 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't Thompson's career affected by a beaning to the wrist or head?
I thought that he suffered an injury to one of those and was not the same afterwards?
by DudeVf11 on Mar 17, 2009 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would have thought
that the Dallas Green era would have been much better than it was.
by jerry morales rules on Mar 17, 2009 7:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
One of the things you have to remember...
… is that you could probably do this for almost every team. The Mets, for example, passed on Reggie Jackson with the #1 pick in 1967 and picked a catcher named Steve Chilcott who got hurt and never played in the majors.
Many star players are NOT #1 picks in baseball. Picking someone #1 in baseball is not as clear cut as picking someone #1 in the NFL or NBA.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Mar 17, 2009 8:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Sort of like when the Twins passed on Prior and selected Mauer
Oh, wait, never mind.
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
by DTJchris on Mar 17, 2009 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In hindsight, yes.
But if the Cubs had passed on Prior, they would probably have taken Mark Teixeira.
Oh, wait, never mind.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Mar 18, 2009 4:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
even in NFL and NBA
there are busts and over looking of players
look at Joe Montana, Walter Payton, hell Michael Jordan was not the #1 over all. Lance Briggs was what 3 or 4 round. Drafting is not an exact science, it is a crap shoot where you have to get lucky with some educated guessing.
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 18, 2009 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Michael Jordan was cut from his HS varsity basketball team as a sophomore
Does anybody have a Leroy Smith Rookie Card? He made the team instead of Jordan.
"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland
by flachimesa on Mar 18, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You also missed Mike Harkey
who qualifies under Callis’ criteria. And as someone else mentioned, Orie qualifies too.
You may say that Orie and Harkey were good players (actually, Harkey was OK for a while) but the point is that you are comparing the Cubs success rates to other team’s success rates, and other teams have players like that that count for their success rates.
So the Cubs actual success rate is closer to 33%. Not great, but closer to the mean. And when you take out the 70s, when the Cubs were incompetently run by the Wrigleys, the rate is about normal.
This isn’t to say the Cubs haven’t had their problems with the draft and the farm system, which was only really good under Dallas Green and Gordon Goldsberry. But the situation isn’t quite as dire as you make it out to be.
by Josh77 on Mar 17, 2009 9:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice catch!
Add Drew Hall to the list with 100 pitching appearances.
"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland
by flachimesa on Mar 17, 2009 9:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't see Orie on the list of 1st round draft picks
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
by DTJchris on Mar 17, 2009 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was a supplemental draft pick
"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland
by flachimesa on Mar 17, 2009 9:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
but I did see his draft position
on his baseball-reference page, which clearly states 29th pick in the 1st round.
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
by DTJchris on Mar 17, 2009 9:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland
by flachimesa on Mar 17, 2009 9:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess that's what I get for going with an ESPN list
plus that list links to all the players pages. I was typing their names in one at a time.
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
by DTJchris on Mar 17, 2009 9:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harkey
Harkey’s career was derailed by injuries otherwise he could have been a solid mid-rotation guy.
In his rookie year 1990 he finished with a 12-6 record in 27 starts with a 126 ERA+. He got hurt after that and pitched a combined total of 56 innings in the majors in 1991 and 1992. He never was quite the same pitcher.
by rlpete on Mar 18, 2009 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ty Griffin
Let’s see! Let’s draft a second baseman with Ryno in his prime. Let’s have Griffin learn how to play third base. Yeah, that’s the ticket! (That line fits with that time period.)
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
by memphiscub on Mar 18, 2009 12:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Imagine being the player behind Cal Ripken Jr
“C’mon, Cal, take a break and let me start a game or two.”
"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland
by flachimesa on Mar 18, 2009 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially since the next pick in the draft was Robin Ventura.
Imagine how good he’d have looked in a Cub uniform during the 1990’s.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Mar 18, 2009 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're breaking my heart, Al.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 18, 2009 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Like all of ours were broken after that pick was made.
The Griffin pick might have been the worst the Cubs ever made.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Mar 18, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There certainly are a lot of lousy ones to choose from.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Mar 18, 2009 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Cubs tried to make up for it by picking Roberto Ventura in the 3rd round, same draft
failed….again
Interesting how many players from that 1988 draft at a later date would wear a Cubs uniform. Eric Karros, Jim Edmonds, et. al.
"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland
by flachimesa on Mar 18, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Luis Gonzalez
4th round that same season
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 18, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and...
Kenny Lofton 18th round 1988
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 18, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Griffin
is a pick that wasn’t criticized at the time at all, since he was considered a top amateur player by almost everybody. Sure, so was Ventura and you can argue the Cubs should have taken him because of a lot of reasons. But no one thought Griffin was a bad pick at the time.
But I’m not here to defend the Jim Frey as GM era, especially since I believe his hiring cost the Cubs a World Series appearance. He also devastated the farm system which took almost a decade to fix. But it was a lot more than a bad first round pick.
Earl Cunningham, on the other hand, was a guy taken out of the blue with big red flags all over him. No one had him that high. Now there wasn’t a great player taken just after him. Kyle Abbott was the next pick and Charles Johnson went one pick later. Neither were really good (Johnson was a great defensive catcher for a while) but both were at least major leaguers. Frank Thomas went one pick before. Crap.
by Josh77 on Mar 18, 2009 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Cunningham draft pick was a surprise then a disappointment
I recall the 1989 draft for special reasons. Some notable picks after Cunningham were Chuck Knoblauch, Tim Salmon, and a college shortstop named Trevor Hoffman.
Yes, that Trevor Hoffman, who was picked in the 11th round)
Another one of my favorites, Ryan Klesko, was drafted in 5th round.
"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland
by flachimesa on Mar 18, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but I never criticize
a first-round pick for someone taken a lot later. Knoblauch and Mo Vaughn were at least first round picks, although a bit later. Salmon went in the third. You could easily say that the Cubs should have taken Tim Salmon instead of Earl Cunningham. So should have 25 other teams, since Salmon had a better career than anyone taken in the first round. But of course, you could have taken anyone you wanted in the first round and still gotten Tim Salmon in the second round too. Some teams could have gotten him in the third round. The point is no one thought Tim Salmon was as good as he was, and it’s a little unfair to criticize the Cubs for not realizing something that 25 other clubs didn’t recognize either.
To take this to an extreme level, the White Sox pick of Robin Ventura was a terrible pick, because Mike Piazza was still sitting on the board. Of course, he’d still be sitting on the board 61 rounds later, too.
by Josh77 on Mar 19, 2009 2:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
On Salmon
Do need to add the White Sox are blameless for not taking Tim Salmon since they took Frank Thomas. Forgot about him.
by Josh77 on Mar 19, 2009 2:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with your points
I was merely pointing out some players that were passed over as a point of interest (such as Trevor Hoffman drafted by the Reds as a shortstop).
"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland
by flachimesa on Mar 19, 2009 8:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought the Cubs should have picked Ventura.
They didn’t need a 2B, obviously, and Ventura played a position they DID need. The pick made no sense.
You’re right about Cunningham. I actually saw him play once in low-A ball. He almost literally had no clue how to play baseball.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Mar 18, 2009 7:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You never draft for need though
because you’d never know when Ryne Sandberg might suddenly retire. But I can understand thinking that Robin Ventura was a better choice at the time.
But I’d concede there was second-guessing at the time. I guess I should have phrased it “no one thought Ty Griffin was a bad player at the time.”
by Josh77 on Mar 19, 2009 2:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's true.
Griffin was thought of as a good player, but a bad pick. I remember thinking, why pick this guy when Ventura is a BETTER player? (He was College Baseball Player of the Year.)
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Mar 19, 2009 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ventura
He had a 58-game hitting streak with Oklahoma State in 1987.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
by memphiscub on Mar 19, 2009 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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