Know Your Enemy: Cincinnati Reds
by Al Yellon on Mar 18, 2009 8:05 AM CDT
in Chicago Cubs News
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PrintEvery year, the so-called experts anoint a team as the sexy "surprise" pick to contend, or make the playoffs.
Now, ask yourself this, from a March 2009 standpoint: do you even remember who that "sexy" pick was a year ago? And second, how many of those experts were, a year ago, picking the Tampa Bay Rays to make the playoffs, much less the World Series?
The answers to those questions are: "no", and "none".
Look! I illustrated this preview without
a photo of Dusty Baker!
photo via cincinnati.reds.mlb.com
What this has to do with the Cincinnati Reds is: a lot of people are saying the Reds might be that surprise team this year, possibly even contending for a wild card. I'm here to tell you that I don't think this is going to happen.
One of the reasons for that is Dusty Baker. (There. It took me five paragraphs to mention Baker.) You know who Baker is? He's Leo Durocher. Let me explain. Durocher, at the time he was hired by the Cubs, had been a successful manager of two other teams, who had won three pennants and a World Series, had only three losing seasons out of 16, and perenially had his teams in contention. He should have won something with the Cubs; let's not go into that.
But Durocher had a season and a fraction as the manager of the Astros in 1972 and 1973, after the Cubs fired him, and although he had several very good hitters (Bob Watson and Jimmy Wynn in their primes, Cesar Cedeno before he got hurt), and a couple of very good pitchers (Jerry Reuss and a young J. R. Richard), he barely finished over .500 with them. One of the reasons, I think, is that he was 67 years old when he took over in Houston and was seriously out of touch with modern baseball.
Baker's career has followed a similar path. After ten successful years in San Francisco, with one pennant (and a shoulda-won World Series) and only three losing seasons, he was brought in to bring that winning tradition to Chicago. We don't need to rehash what happened. But part of the reason that he failed was that he continued to use strategies, etc. that didn't work even after it was proven over and over that they didn't work. Dusty will be 60 in June and I think he's out of touch.
The same fate that befell Durocher in Houston may be Dusty Baker's Cincinnati legacy. He has now had three consecutive losing seasons as a manager, and continued to do things in his first year with the Reds (batting Corey Patterson leadoff, overusing starting pitchers) that drove us nuts.
Thus, even with a team of talented hitters, I think Baker's fate is sealed with this Reds team. Despite finishing fourth in the NL in homers last year, the Reds were 12th in runs scored. Guess why? Because they were tied for 13th in on-base percentage. (No clogged bases in Cincinnati, and that's after ranking ninth in OBA in the NL in 2007.) That's not likely to improve this year, as their leading walk-drawer, Adam Dunn, is gone. And if Dusty starts Willy Taveras in CF and leads him off -- that .331 career OBA, eerily similar to the .330 OBA Juan Pierre posted for Dusty's 2006 Cubs -- is going to drag down the Reds' run-scoring abilities, even with fine hitters like Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Edwin Encarnacion in the middle of the lineup. So I don't expect the Reds to score many more, if any more, runs than they did a year ago. (Incidentally, if Votto could play against the Cubs every day, you could send him to the Hall of Fame. Nine of his 28 career HR are vs. the Cubs, and he's 5-for-13 off Ted Lilly with 2 HR and 8 RBI.)
So any success they'll have in Cincinnati rests on the shoulders of their pitching staff, which returns mostly intact from 2008. Edinson Volquez, the Reds half of a trade that helped both teams, finished tied for third in the NL in wins and tied for 2nd in K's, which got him fourth place in ROY voting, and surprisingly, no Cy Young votes at all. Aaron Harang will have to rebound from his awful 2008 (he's having an awful spring as a followup so far), and one of Johnny Cueto, Micah Owings or Homer Bailey will have to step up and become the pitcher that management expected them to be as they all rocketed through farm systems. Owings was that prospect for the Diamondbacks, before he was acquired in the Dunn deal -- and he didn't even pitch a game for the Reds last year, instead just pinch-hitting four times, getting two hits. He's having a good spring, with 16 K in 14 innings and a 1.23 ERA.
Like their rotation, the Reds bullpen in 2009 is pretty much the same as last year's. Francisco Cordero is a good closer, but also prone to spectacular meltdowns, as we saw when Cordero was a Brewer and again last year in Cincinnati (see this game and this game for good examples). Finally, it's difficult for any Cincinnati pitching staff to have a good year in their ballpark, which is a launching pad. The 800 runs allowed ranked 13th in the NL, and Reds pitchers have allowed 800 or more runs every year since the park opened in 2003.
Other Reds having good springs are Bailey (0.90 ERA in 4 appearances), Cueto (1.29 ERA, but only 7 IP), Phillips (.379, 5 doubles), and the recently acquired Jonny Gomes (.333, 3 HR, 10 RBI).
As a final example of how Dusty keeps going over and over past things that didn't quite work out the way he had hoped, he got Walt Jocketty to sign our old buddy Jacque Jones (after Jacque had hit .147 last year in 116 AB between Florida and Detroit). Jones is 2-for-26 this spring, both singles.
They're the darling pick of the experts, but I say they'll have trouble winning more games (74) than they did last year. They've had eight straight losing seasons. Make it nine this year, and fourth place.
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I thought the Astros would do very well this year
but based on their Spring Training, They could contend for the worst team in the league…
#34: You'll be missed!
Houston has no pitching.
That’s their basic problem.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Cesar Cedeno
the original ONEDEC?
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
Dusty's Three Losing Seasons in SF
The Giants were under .500 every season from 1994-96.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
Baker....=...baseball superstitions
Baker when he came all I knew was the hype and record with SF. After two years I realized he was a leader who was locked in baseball’s old superstitions. Science or in baseball talk sabermetrics has passed him and much of the past beliefs by.
He wrecked talent—-Prior. He played personal favorites and even made fanfare spreading pixie dust on the field.
All this is BS, stuff for the locker room joker.
A leader must have the respect and admiration of those he/she is leading and Baker lost that and in Cincinnati I am certain the cumulative is having its effect as well—-kind of like how the fictional characters in the movie or TV show M.A.S.H. had for their leaders—-
Piniella is big improvement, he has his flaws but for the most part he is dead on.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
partially agree
during the post season when SF went to the WS, he used to give the game ball to the exiting pitcher, as a momento to add to their personal trohpy case….which is a big NO NO in superstitions.
He had some superstitions, but he also was a “players manager” meaning that he would stick with a player forever to give him a chance to meet incentives in their contract, which I believe went back to when he was a player and how he would have wnated to be handled, even if it was not best for the team.
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
It will be nice
to play the Reds w/out watching A Dunn launch balls out the park every other at bat. Perhaps Cubs pitchers will learn to pitch around Votto this season; as Al’s post mentioned, he now carries the torch as the premier Cub killer. I completely agree that Baker cannot manage the leadoff spot in the order, but still think the Reds harbour enough young talent to overcome his dated managerial style. Head to head, I hope the Cubs take care of business vs the Reds.
"Chicago Cubs fans are ninety percent scar tissue." - George F. Will
Baker's Managerial style
Dated or Demented?
I am not a Pirate! I am a Pre-Salvage Engineer. I get things before they get wet.
by horp the reckless on Mar 18, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions
I do not see how the Reds are better
They have a lot of very marginal veterans on the roster. If they are any good, it will be the young talent that shines.
"I won't be like A-Rod" - Z, 3/17/09
Actually, I think they're mostly a young team with only a few marginal veterans.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
They do seem to have some young
40-Man Roster
Pitchers B/T Ht Wt DOB
48 Francisco Cordero R/R 6-3 240 05/11/75
57 Mike Lincoln R/R 6-2 220 04/10/75
53 Arthur Rhodes L/L 6-2 210 10/24/69
25 David Weathers R/R 6-3 240 09/25/69
Infielders B/T Ht Wt DOB
2 Alex Gonzalez R/R 5-11 215 02/15/77
15 Jerry Hairston Jr. R/R 5-10 190 05/29/76
Outfielders B/T Ht Wt DOB
30 Norris Hopper R/R 5-11 205 03/24/79
And these non-roster invitees:
Infielders B/T Ht Wt DOB
75 Kevin Barker L/L 6-2 195 07/26/75
23 Daryle Ward L/L 6-2 240 06/27/75
Outfielders B/T Ht Wt DOB
9 Jacque Jones L/L 5-10 200 04/25/75
80 Darnell McDonald R/R 5-11 210 11/17/78
"I won't be like A-Rod" - Z, 3/17/09
by Ihatethecards on Mar 18, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions
OK, so their bullpen appears to lean more toward the veteran side of things.
Especially Rhodes and Weathers – damn, they’re about the same age as I am. Knew I should’ve worked on a breaking pitch…
But none of the rest of those guys are at the top of the depth chart – except maybe Gonzalez.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
I would all but guarantee
I’ll be watching Barker, McDonald and maybe Hopper when Louisville rolls into Indianapolis during the Triple-A season.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Bill Potter on Mar 18, 2009 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Barker's already been sent to minor league camp
Jones hasn’t done squat this spring and if it weren’t for the Dusty connection probably would have been cut already. I have a hard time believing that even Dusty could keep him over Dickerson and Gomes at this point. Darnell McDonald has pretty much zero shot of making the team and Daryle Ward could make it as the lefty pinch hitter on the bench.
The Reds have 2 positions where the starters will be over 28 this season – SS (Gonzalez/Hairston) and C (Ramon Hernandez). This is definitely a year where they will live and die by youth, except out of the bullpen, as you can see.
"How big IS your magic wand?"
i'm pretty sure
Baseball Prospectus picked the Rays to make the playoffs last year…. at the very least they had them winning 90 games. I know because i used the information to make a ton of money on the o/u at 76.5 last year
by DartmouthCubsFan on Mar 18, 2009 8:51 AM CDT reply actions
They were way off, then.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Did you read what he wrote?
“Baseball Prospectus picked the Rays to make the playoffs last year…. at the very least they had them winning 90 games.”
Yeah. They were waaaaaaay off.
"Those are my principles, and if you don’t like them, well, I have others." - Groucho Marx
I misread the post.
I thought he said “Reds”, not “Rays”.
Anyone got a link to that article?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Hat tip indeed.
Thanks for the link. I’d never have predicted that at the time, and like you said, even seemed a bit crazy.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
It's a reasonable preview, Al
and because of their youth, I think the Reds could finish anywhere between 70 and 85 wins and I wouldn’t be surprised by the results. It’s all just a matter of how well the somewhat unpredictable young players can perform.
Also GABP is not the extreme run-inflater that it is made out to be. It’s multi-year regressed park factor is something like 102, and even the non-regressed PF is just 105. Yes, it gives up a lot of home runs, but it also suppresses singles and doubles and triples are virtually non-existent. The big issue for the Reds has been 1. terrible pitchers like Eric Milton, Jimmy Anderson, and Jimmy Haynes being expected to be a staff aces and 2. A complete lack of focus on defense.
FWIW, I think the Reds have done a lot to improve their defense this year by getting rid of Dunn and Griffey in the OF and by hopefully having a healthy Alex Gonzalez at SS. Edwin Encarnacion is still an issue defensively at 3B, but Jeff Keppinger was a statue at SS last year, so if Gonzalez can remain healthy it will be addition by subtraction. Also, I think the rotation has a chance to be one of the top 5 in the NL, though it definitely depends on Harang being healthy and Cueto making a step forward.
I think they’ll do a lot better job of preventing runs than they’ve done in the past, but like you I’m suspicious of their ability to actually score runs.
"How big IS your magic wand?"
Thanks for stopping by.
We always like to have knowledgeable fans of other teams here.
What, in your opinion, is wrong with Harang? He’s had a terrible spring so far.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
it's hard to say
I hate to theorize on what is up with a player who has a roster spot locked up during the spring. These games aren’t normal. He could be working on a specific pitch – perhaps trying to locate his fastball in certain zones or trying to get the feel back on a slider. He’s been saying that he’s having a hard time finding his groove. Two starts ago he looked really good and he said it was the best he’s felt in a long time, but then yesterday he got rocked. I think it’s just a case of him trying to work off the rust. If he hadn’t been injured last year and had such a down season, people wouldn’t really be fretting too much over his performance so far this year.
I’m not sure he’ll get back to his 2006-2007 level (he’s thrown a lot of pitches over the last 3 seasons), but I’m not worried enough at this point to say that he’s spent as a pitcher.
"How big IS your magic wand?"
Your comment that
… “he’s thrown a lot of pitches over the last 3 seasons”… might be the red flag.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Re: Harang
Good read on what happened with Harang last year. Spoiler: It was most likely Dusty’s fault.
Ron Santo should sing TMOTTBG everyday. Period.
Gee, what a surprise.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I predict the Red to win 60 - 100 games this year
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
I predict they win at lease one game
each month
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
I'll see your one
and raise you to two. At least 2 wins a month.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Don't go too much higher
Remember May 2006? I’ve tried to block it, but haven’t been able to …
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Ugh
I thought we’d agreed that it never happened.
The shortest distance between two points is under construction.
by halfblindcubbiegirl on Mar 18, 2009 9:24 PM CDT up reply actions
TMTSNBM
The Month That Shall Not Be Mentioned
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
I wil see your two
and include that at least once a month they ALSO lose a game
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
That's my point
I’m not trying to hedge my bets when I say that. What I’m saying is that with a young team like the Reds, it wouldn’t surprise me if they won only 70 games, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if they had a season where everything clicked and won 85 games. Depending on youth like they are makes them very hard to predict.
"How big IS your magic wand?"
The point about the outfield defense is a good one.
Dickerson and Taveras both have good speed. I’m not sure how Bruce is defensively, but he’s got to be better than Junior.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
Bruce
there is talk that he can still handle CF at his young age, so he should be a pretty good RF. He wasn’t very good in RF last season, but he was 21 and there is also a serious small sample alert. Like you said though, it shouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Junior defensively.
"How big IS your magic wand?"
I agree heartily
I don’t think that the Reds have any shot to finish over .500 this year unless they get some huge unexpected years from multiple young players.
They do have some good young pitching in the rotation. Their 1-4 are solid in Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto (although without a real ace in my opinion.) They have a couple of good options for a 5th starter as well in Micah Owings and Homer Bailey. Their bullpen shouldn’t be any worse than last year. However, the Reds did rank 13th of 16 NL teams in runs allowed and team ERA last year. Lets say that they get some modest improvement here.
Now look at the lineup. The Reds were 12th of 16 in runs scored, as Al pointed out above. Subtract Adam Dunn from that lineup (and Griffey. But at this point I’m not sure that he is a really big loss.) and add who to replace his bat? Ramon Hernandez? Arthur Rhodes? Daryle Ward? Jacque Jones?
Sorry, but I don’t see enough of the young players emerging under Dusty to offset their losses from last year even. They might surprise me, but I think that a surprise would be an improvement of 4-5 wins to put them into the 76-78 win range. That would be a surprise to me. I just can’t see them improving enough to really challenge for the wild card. They just didn’t add anything of substance (and indeed lost some offense) to what proved to be a poor team last year. I think that they will probably have some good pitching which can make them dangerous to face in short bursts, but ultimately will not have enough bats to seriously threaten for anything.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Um, well...
…I believe the Reds are hoping Votto and Bruce will replace Dunn and Griffey. Leftfielder Chris Dickerson also put up big numbers in his Aug/Sept callup last season (1.021 OPS in 102 ABs). Brandon Phillips has some pop as well.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
Yabbut...
…. Votto and Bruce were already on last year’s team, producing fairly well. Now, you’re subtracting Dunn and Griffey and replacing them with… Willy Taveras and who else?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Well, I meant the Reds are hoping...
… Votto and Bruce will replace Dunn and Griffey’s production. Both are a year older with some consistent major league playing time under their belts. ZiPs, for one, projects Bruce to hit 37 bombs and Votto to hit 27. That’s fairly close to what I’m guessing the Reds usually hoped to get out of Dunn and Griffey. And, like I said, this Dickerson kid turned some heads at the end of last season. I think they’re still hoping for Brandon Phillips to finally give them a monster season, too.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
Right, but if they do that...
… who replaces Votto and Bruce’s production?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Well, Bruce played in only 108 games last year.
They should get around 45 to 50 more out of him this year. And, like I said, Dickerson will need to step up big time. Obviously, Votto will have to remain consistent as well.
I guess I look at the loss of Junior as more addition by subtraction because he was often injured and a liability on defense. Losing Dunn should hurt their offense, but if Bruce can blossom into the player they’re hoping, he should mitigate that loss. Throw in a good year from Dickerson and a better year from Phillips, and I think the loss of Dunn and Griffey could be covered easily – especially when you factor in defense.
Naturally, I’m hoping none of this happens. But it could.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
Prediction
Dusty will be fired either during the season, or after.
I think the Reds are going to be a “lost” team. The lack of leadership will get them nowhere. If they fired Baker sometime during the season, and throw in a hard-nosed leader…. I think they’ll turn it around and will do better. But it will be too late for ’09.
LaRussa's contract is up after this year
If I read Cot’s correctly. If the Reds do struggle, I could see he and Jocketty reuniting.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Bill Potter on Mar 18, 2009 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Why would he leave St. Louis for Cincy?
I just don’t see him feeling the need to prove himself anymore. He’s got two WS titles (with two differerent teams) and a good core of guys to continue to build around with the Cards. I can see your point on maybe wanting to join Jocketty, but I don’t know why he would go, unless he just wanted a challenge. A huge challenge.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
plus St L
still tries to contend, and players are willing to look seriously at St L as a place to sign as a FA.
Unless Pujols has some unknown love for Cinci and LaRussa is just looking to beat him there, so there is a welcoming wagon for Pujols.
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
or...
…a huge change. I think it’s easy to assume he can’t be too happy with how St. Louis management doesn’t seem 100% dedicated to winning. If Jocketty’s friendship pulls him over, I am sure it will also be with the guarantee that the Reds will spend some money to get some better players.
Who knows, maybe Pujols will be like McGwire… and will follow Tony wherever he goes….
A lot of ifs there, but it doesn’t seem unreasonable.
by TheHawkRules on Mar 18, 2009 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions
There are rumblings that LaRussa and Mozeliak don't see eye-to-eye
I don’t necessarily think bringing in LaRussa would bring in Pujols as well, but I think Tony might like to try and build another winner and cement his legacy by winning with four different teams during his tenure.
If he could do that, he could make a case as the best manager in baseball history (I would disagree, but he could make the argument).
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Bill Potter on Mar 18, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions
LaRussa is set to work for Jerry Reinsdorf when he leaves St. Louis
Sox will hire LaRussa as a special advisor to Reinsdorf, Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen.
Could Guillen and LaRussa really co-exist?
Their egos would clash regularly, me thinks.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Bill Potter on Mar 18, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah!
I can’t see that happening at all.
by TheHawkRules on Mar 18, 2009 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions
I doubt it.
LaRussa turns 65 this year. I can’t see him going anywhere.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
It could happen.
I wonder what Reds fans think. (Reds fans? Anyone? Buehler…?)
And let me just take this opportunity to echo what Al said and reiterate what I wrote in the Cards thread yesterday. Dusty Baker is simply a bad fit for this young Reds team. In the MLB Network’s 30/30 special on the Reds, Dusty remarked something along the lines of “This is the team I’ve always wanted to manage because I can teach them to play baseball the proper way.”
To my ears, that means this team is going to suffer from some (and I hate to use this word) “chemistry” issues as these young guys second guess themselves trying to meet Dusty’s antiquated criteria. I’ve also heard/read that, despite being regarded as a player’s manager, Dusty’s in-game criticisms can be quite withering.
Of course, it’s debatable just how much an effect a manager has on a team’s win-loss record, so maybe we’re making too much of the Dusty Factor. Nonetheless, I think he will be a, uh, factor. Dusty needs a team that can essentially manage itself, so he can kick back and be one of the guys. He could very well end up getting very frustrated and distracted trying to be both teacher and manager.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
I doubt he gets fired this year
unless he does something that obviously makes him a scapegoat. The Reds have already allowed the expectation for a down year by saying things like, “building for the long term” and “teaching these young guys how to play.” Short of Dusty doing something to seriously embarrass the organization – I mean something more than just being a bad manager – I can’t see the Reds eating a year of his contract and only giving the Big Name Manager™ less than two years to accomplish anything. Unfortunately us Reds fans are going to have to suffer through with him for at least another whole year, I think.
"How big IS your magic wand?"
Yeah, it would be a pretty drastic move.
And I’d guess, too, that, if the Reds do struggle, their front office will be able to cite the team’s youth as a reason.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
I don't know Bob Castillini seems a little manic.
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions!"- Dr. Stephen T. Colbert DFA.
by justin007000 on Mar 18, 2009 8:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Right on
Dusty might have something to offer SOMEone, in theory, but putting him at the helm of a rookie-laden team was a poor fit from the beginning. Pegs and holes gotta line up at least a little bit….I wonder how many AB’s Jacque’s gonna get, lol
"I showed him the cheese then punched him out with the yakker." -- Eck
by kentmeister on Mar 18, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Boone
While speaking of the Reds, I just saw that Aaron Boone, a former Reds player, is going to have to have open heart surgery. Man. I hope for the best for the guy.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090318/ap_on_sp_ba_ne/bbn_astros_boone_surgery
Will Pittsburgh or Houston come in last?
I can hardly wait.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Al, about Edinson Volquez...
…I’m surprised you didn’t mention that, despite receiving three ROY votes, he actually wasn’t eligible to be ROY. Isn’t that true or did I dream that?
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
That is true.
I had forgotten about that, but you guys are right. Yet another reason the BBWAA shouldn’t be allowed to vote for these awards.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Probably came from the same guy who stole Geo's
unanimous ROY by giving Votto a first place vote.
www.talkingchicagobaseball.blogspot.com
Reds are a team on th rise
A rotation of Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto, Edwin Volsquez, Brandon Arroyo and the re-emerging Homer Bailey is good. With potential of being very good. Reds also have two exceptional talents in Jay Bruce and Joey Votto (who says Dusty has biased against young players), to go along with Brandon Phillips and the enigmatic Edwin Encarnacion.
1. Cubs
2. Reds
3. Cardinals
4. Pirates
5. Brewers
6. Stros
Edinson and Bronson
"Who's Bob Brenly? The guy that used to be the manager for Arizona?" ~ Alfonso Guilleard Soriano
And according to Dick Stockton....
….we got Adolfo Soriano and Rodrigo Ramirez on our team…
"Who's Bob Brenly? The guy that used to be the manager for Arizona?" ~ Alfonso Guilleard Soriano
About Bruce and Votto...
…it’s not Dusty has any other options at those positions. Otherwise, I’d agree. The Reds have a lot of interesting young players.
You seriously think the Brewers are going to be worse than the Pirates?
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
Make that "...not like Dusty..."
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
Slyde would know more than I on the Reds, but I wonder if Bailey would be best served in the bullpen
He hasn’t developed a consistent third pitch yet, and his curveball isn’t overpowering, either. I just wonder right now whether his power fastball would be better in the bullpen right now in his career.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Bill Potter on Mar 18, 2009 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions
there has been some discussion on that, especially with how well Micah Owings has pitched this Spring
I think the Reds are more likely to give Bailey one more shot this year as a starter. He had some attitude issues last year – I have no proof, but I think he was likely a bit jealous of the publicity that Cueto and Volquez were getting in the bigs – but apparently he has come into camp this year with a much better attitude. He’s also given up drinking, which it sounds like had started to become a problem. He’s also had some leg issues in the past that are supposed to be better now.
He’s still only 22, so he’s got plenty of time to keep developing. It’ll be interesting to see if his ego can take the jolt of being sent back to the minors despite pitching well. If so, he might still be able to make it as a starter – he needs to focus and keep developing his pitches to be successful as a starter. However, if he reverts back to some of his old ways, the bullpen might be the best spot for him since there he can get away with just being a power pitcher in short bursts.
"How big IS your magic wand?"
No recap of the WBC?
Last night’s US/Puerto Rico battle was a classic. And Geo’s coming to camp now.
Brian Roberts missed the hold sign because he’d only been on the team two days. That’s one of those details that made the game great.
I caught the ninth inning.
What a great finish. I felt a little bad for Geo, but at least he’ll be back in camp with the Cubs and I guess Lilly isn’t likely to see much more action.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
Lilly's probably done
although I could see a situation where he pitches in the championship game.
The guy who needs to not be pitching is Jake Peavy, who’s been nothing short of terrible. Remind me again why we want this guy? Unfortunately, Peavy is scheduled to go in the semi game and Lilly won’t be eligible to pitch that game. Oswalt goes in the championship game, if the US makes it, and I can’t see him getting bumped for Lilly barring an injury.
I’d rather see anyone but Jake Peavy on the mound for the US right now. Jeremy Guthrie might be a better choice.
by Josh Timmers on Mar 18, 2009 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
I did love seeing that USA rally.
The game was one of the better ones in a WBC that has had several outstanding games.
You’re right about Peavy. I wonder if he’s hurt.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
If he is...
that pretty much guarantees that Hendry will get him eventually.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Mar 18, 2009 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Which 'experts' are picking the Reds to be a sleeper team?
I know that BP at least is not very optimistic, predicting 79 wins from the Reds.
Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog
The same experts that had very bad picks last year.
At the end of last season, I read an article listing how bad all of the “experts” predictions were. Most of the picks were wrong.
Here’s a report of predictions at mid-season: LINK
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Mar 18, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions
They won't be a sleeper
they are nothing special. Their best pitcher will regress this season and their second best pitcher (Harang) has been gotten by Dusty.
www.talkingchicagobaseball.blogspot.com
Re
Let’s assume all this energy of the youngsters on the Reds the media is talking about (see Jayson Stark’s article on espn.com for example) gets them out of the blocks fast. With Dusty Baker at the helm, what’s going to happen is he’ll start pushing hard to bring in the vets he claims he really needs to contend and the Neifi Perez’s of 2009 will start turning up on the Red’s roster and in the lineup.
If the Red’s don’t start fast and contend, Baker will spend the season sitting on ass chewing toothpicks and the kids won’t get the coaching they need to continue to build their careers because Dusty believes he shouldn’t have to teach anyone at the MLB level; that’s what the minors are for.
Either way, the Reds lose. If they were serious about getting back on top of the division, they’d commit to the kids no matter what happens and bring in a manager who’s known as a teacher. The suggestion of TLR, especially if Duncan comes along, would be exactly what the Reds need, and if it happened, I would be very worried about them becoming a real threat in two-to-three years. In 2009? Al’s got them pegged at pretty much their upside, and that’s only because the ‘stros are a mess and Pittsburgh’s a glorified AAA team.
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Side notes
Aaron Harang was actually fine at the beginning and end of the year, going through a rough spell in between which might’ve been due to that extended pen outing that Dusty put him out there for.
Volquez tumbled the 2nd half of the year, which explains the Cy Young voting. I think it’s too early to pencil Volquez in as being a solid starter. He might be, but I’m taking a wait and see on that.
Arroyo should be his usual innings eating self that shows flashes. They’ve got enough arms (don’t rule out guys like Matt Maloney, Darryl Thompson, and a few more throughout the year) to potentially fill out the end of the rotation.
The pitching should be, considering the 2nd half of the year, as big a concern as the hitting entering the year. If they can set the table, meaning a fluke year from Taveras I guess, the offense should be fine. The pitching has excellent upside, but is far away. With an excellent system, I look for another up and down year before they legitimately push in 2010 (when they should figure out which young arms can survive). I don’t expect Dusty to make it through either, as I think Walt will bring in his own guy. I look for around .500.
feedback from the 'Nati
Interesting thread ya got here. The 2009 Reds could easily be renamed the “IFS”.
*IF the Big Four in the rotation performs to expectations…
*IF the starting lineup remains healthy all season…
*IF a couple of the younger players develop further (Encarnacion, Dickerson, Bruce)…
*IF Dusty doesnt run the ballclub out of innings trying to incite HAVOC on the basepaths…
*IF Dusty realizes the lineup doesnt have to always be CF/SS as leadoff and #2….
*IF Owings/Bailey solidify the #5 slot…
THEN the Reds will probably compete for a wild card berth.
Johnny Cueto has the filthiest stuff in the organization and visually reminds one of a young Pedro Martinez. That is not a misprint. In case anyone over here at BCB missed his MLB debut last season: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=280403117
The big news in Redsland this spring is the huge turnaround in the clubhouse. There are no more special perks for superstars (double lockers, recliners, etc) and everyone is treated the same. Personally I thought Adam Dunn was hysterical (http://deadspin.com/sports/adam-dunn/rain-delays-bore-adam-dunn-190732.php) and had to be a great teammate but various team insiders have confirmed his was a case of addition by subtraction. The ballplayers are excited to get to the ballpark each day this spring and are putting out max effort.
Much was made about improving the up the middle defense this offseason. Like Slyde mentioned Alex Gonzalez returning to the shortstop position helps immensely. I’m not sold that Ramon Hernandez is much better defensively than Ryan Hanigan but his bat should play well at GABP. Corey Patterson (SHIVER!) is probably a better defensive centerfielder than Willy Taveras. And Brandon Phillips is an absolute highlight film at 2B.
The real opportunity is for Edwin Encarnacion, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce to cut down on their errors. All flash some nice leather and have good range, and they’re all young enough to improve.
We’ll see…nothing like a 13 year playoff drought to frustrate a fan base.
"Hey! Look at the kid in the sombrero!"
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