"Soto might become a decent backup, that's all." -- Al, 5/1/2007

There have been many players that didn't jump off the page at first

and many more who are Spring Training legends.

I’m pulling for him but won’t lose sleep if he gets sent down. I’ve seen him play OF and, quite frankly, he’s a klutz.

klutz = not good

"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland

by flachimesa on Mar 22, 2009 1:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Hindsight is always 20-20

Yes, making declarative statements like that may make you look stupid if you are wrong. Saying “Micah Hoffpaur is a Quadruple-A player, nothing more” sounds awfully like “Soto might become a decent back-up, that is all” is true, because at the time it certainly seemed that way.

So what’s your point? We should switch to saying “Micah Hoffpauir has a small but nontrivial chance of being a major league regular” instead of “Micah Hoffpauir can never be a major league player”? You can say that about anyone

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 1:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

see response to Al for my "point"

to the extent it wasnt clear in the original post.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

interesting and what are you saying?

That a 29 year old who made 80 plate appearances last year where he hit 2 HR’s (73 AB’s, 36 AB’s per HR) at the age of 28 in his only MLB season, you are comparing him to a 24 year old who came up in September who had 60 plate appearances and 3 HR’s (54 AB’s or 18 AB’s per HR)

The thing is both are small sample sizes. At 23 years old Soto did have a break out season in AAA with a 1.079 OPS and MVP. At the age of 23 Hoffpauir was in Adv A Ball and hit .704 OPS. Now he went to Lamar College in TX and holds their offensive records but the reality is he did’nt actually face top competition until he was 22 years old and drafted in the 13th round.

Micah is not Lou Gehrig, nor is he Willie Stargell. Now if you are insinuating that he might be a surprise player or late bloomer like Ryan Ludwick except Ludwick was a 2nd round draft choice and broke his hip early in his minor league career.

Hoff still has to make himself a major league ball player. His problem is that he has an All Star 1B in front of him who has 12 years of MLB experience and still only 33 years old, 2 of those year abbreviated, one a Sept at 21 years old and the other the injury at 30 years. Now just to compare apples to apples Lee has 5448 AB’s with 248 HR’s (or a HR every 21 AB’s.)

Your “Hoff love” is commendable but come on….be reasonable.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Mar 23, 2009 12:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

lets not look at the round picked

Piazza was picked in the 62nd round, and no one wanted him as a C.

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 23, 2009 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was an extremely tiny bit of info

to criticize that meant nothing in Ivy’s larger post.

by Arbusto on Mar 23, 2009 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reasonable

I don’t think anything about your response is reasonable. You and Al have both returned to saying he can’t ever be a HOFamer so why bother at all. That’s not very persuasive. Yeah, he clearly took longer to figure it out than some players, and as a consequence his career is unlikely to have as many good years as someone who started to click at 22. But so what? If he’s good at 29, play him. His totals the last two years indicate that we wasted a pretty good hitter at age 28 in AAA, and a pretty good hitter at 27 in AAA. So therefore we should waste him at 29 in AAA? That makes no sense.

by Orval Overall on Mar 23, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the counter-argument isn't that he's not a Hall of Famer

It’s that if he was that good, he’d likely have figured it out by now. Foolproof, no — but I think that’s what the point is.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 23, 2009 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe

i’m reading too much into the comments, but when I see some like this from Al:

“Name some others… with this little experience at age 29, who "got it together" and had anything more than a marginal career.”

and this from dtpollitt:

“So rather than Micah hitting his "peak” two years ago… he’s gonna hit it this year?"

I get the idea people won’t be happy with just one good year even if they got that.

by Orval Overall on Mar 23, 2009 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And in any case

if you look at his numbers, he clearly “figured it out” by 2006 which is when his performance started to rise. At the grand old age of 26. Read down for tons of examples of players who started to “figure it out” around that age or even later (Ziegler, Ortiz, Podsenik, C. Blake have all been mentioned).

And here’s another: Mike Lowell, who the yankees drafted out of college and essentially gave up on by age 24 because he hadn’t “figured it out” yet. At 26 he had 22 HR and 90 RBI; at 27, 18 and 100; at 28, 24 and 92; at the tragic age of 29 when he should be in “decline”, he had 32 and 105 and a WS ring; and at 30, 27 and 85.

Don’t tell me players who haven’t “figured it out” by age 22 have no chance of ever doing so.

by Orval Overall on Mar 23, 2009 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Foolproof, no

And I’m not the one saying it.

You’re right — you are reading too much into the comments.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 23, 2009 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you are

making good points though.

Lou: hit Aramis 3rd for the love of everything baseball.

by kylejo on Mar 23, 2009 7:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Amen to you Orval---I get where you're coming from..

Hoff has been the recipient of a lot of disses on this site and precious little objective credit for what he does well.

People were lining up before the playoffs last year with reasons why Pie had to be on the roster—all except for the reason we needed most—someone who can hit. I don’t get it. Hendry and Lou are apparently complete baseball idiots when it comes to Hoff and Pie—they dumped one and kept the other—what silly douches.

Orval, I applaud you temerity and am glad someone finally posted what I think really needed to be said. Even in today’s game recap we find a jab at Hoff for missing a ball “DLee would have had”—don’t look now but Lee’s range factor (and Lee is my favorite player BTW) was barely in the top 10 in the NL last year and was below Delgado and Fielder—2007 was very similar.

Hoffpauir is right around a league average fielder at first and a definite adventure in the OF—but many good hitters are. Give the guy a little bit of credit folks!

"Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest you also be like to him."
Solomon

by cubfever7 on Apr 1, 2009 7:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait...

April fools, right? =)

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Apr 2, 2009 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, I was wrong about Soto.

Tell me you would have said anything different on May 1, 2007. I’m happy to admit I was wrong.

Ryan Howard hit 22 HR in a half-season callup at age 25, which isn’t ridiculously old for that. To call him a “late bloomer” is a stretch. May I note here that Ryan Howard is about four months older than Micah Hoffpauir and has 175 more major league homers than Hoffpauir does?

Granted, Howard came to a team where they needed someone at his position and he took it over. The Cubs aren’t in that spot. If only some AL team who needed a DH would make some sort of offer for Hoffpauir, because he does seem perfectly suited for that role. For the Cubs to count on him to play outfield in major league games that mean something is … well, they could do better defensively. It just seems silly to carry such a one-dimensional player on your bench when, because of Lou’s insistence on a 12-man pitching staff, you are limited to five bench players.

So this year, we will have on our bench:

a backup catcher
a backup first baseman who really can only play 1B and PH
a fifth outfielder whose best talent is baserunning
a backup infielder whose best position is 2B and who has only limited time at SS and none at 3B

And, whoever isn’t playing center field that day.

That’s not a very versatile bench, and that’s why I was hoping Corey Koskie would make it. Since he’s retired now, the Cubs should be looking for someone who can play multiple positions and hit. That isn’t Micah Hoffpauir.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 22, 2009 2:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Points well taken

However, my biggest concern with not having Hoffpauir on the bench is the lack of “pop” off of said bench. Under your model, who do the Cubs turn to in those late inning situations where they could use a long ball?

Or would you rather get another utility infielder (Izturis?) to take his spot and make due without any big bats off the bench (this comment is not meant to be sarcastic, just to gain some insight into your ideal bench).

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day." ~ Frank Sinatra

by DMCub on Mar 22, 2009 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

I completely agree with you

And I’d rather have Izturis than Miles (I STILL don’t get the DeRo trade). Maybe we can package him with Gaudin. I think Hoff needs to be on this team though

"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher

by Musicdude10 on Mar 22, 2009 11:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why would this team need Hoffpauir over a valuable bullpen arm?

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 23, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

because at this point, he's the only viable backup 1B on the roster.

No argument here that the Cubs could use another solid bullpen arm, but that will have to come at the expense of someone else, because unless you’re willing to run DLee out there 162 games, Hoff has a roster spot.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 23, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

late to the fight

Soto and Bako/Koyie could be backup 1b. Any outfielder corner infielder should be able to man first base on a limited basis. Dlee will hopefully play 150+ games and the other few can be divided amongst others no reason to have a 1b only alternate on the team.

by KyCubsFan on Mar 25, 2009 9:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now playing 1b....#1....Kosuke Fukudome

"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland

by flachimesa on Mar 26, 2009 8:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"divided amongst others..."

…who have NEVER played the position before???

Ok, Bako has one game there. One. And he had only two putouts so that tells me it was only for an inning. Not to mention at this point, it appears that Hill will make the team as backup C, not Bako.

I’ll grant you that any ballplayer of reasonable stature and agility should be able to man first base on a limited basis, provided of course, that they have done so in the past. And Spring Training is an excellent time to be doing such things, especially an extended ST like we have this year. But outside of DLee, Hoff and Fox, I can’t recall anyone else who’s played at 1B this ST – I’m sure there’s been a few unknowns in the late innings of some of these games, but nobody who has a shot at making the team.

Barring injury or trade/pickup – Hoff has made the team.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 26, 2009 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't seen anyone but Lee, Hoff and Fox play 1B.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 26, 2009 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

Lou: hit Aramis 3rd for the love of everything baseball.

by kylejo on Mar 23, 2009 8:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't say that I would have said something different about Soto in May 07.

But I can say that armed with that lesson, I wouldn’t double-down and say essentially the same thing about a player who has done nothing but hit in every opportunity he’s received over the last 13 months (Spring Training ‘08, AAA-ball in ’08, brief call-ups to the big club, and Spring Training ’09). You don’t know that he can’t hit any more than I know he can; but the available evidence says he can hit, and he should be given the opportunity to prove it through an extended period.

I didn’t mean to overly imply that Howard was a late bloomer. If I had used him for more than I quick analogy I think I would have said he debuted late for much the same reason Hoff can’t get much time now: he was buried behind an established veteran, and as much as he hit at AAA, people didn’t really believe he’d put up MVP caliber numbers in the show. It took an injury to Thome to get him the call-up you described, and a trade of Thome to get him the chance to prove that he was not only better than Thome at that time, but probably had been better than him for a couple of years already. Years that were wasted in the minors. So when I hear people say Hoff CAN’T be as good as his AAA and Spring numbers suggest, and anyway there’s no room for him behind our established veteran, I think “that sounds familiar.”

As for his one dimensional nature, this team went to the playoffs with one-dimensional hitters Darryl Ward and Randall Simon filling essentially the same role. Having a guy who can bring the lumber off the bench is plenty valuable in its own right.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right, the key word there is OFF THE BENCH

Looking purely at his hitting skills, I don’t think very many people are unhappy with Hoffpauir as a bench player. Most of the Hoffpauir concerns are due to the fact that he can’t play many positions, and the ridiculous notion that he should replace Derrek Lee. He’s fine as a role player.

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention

Derrek seems to have trouble staying healthy – at least to the point where his offensive skills are diminished. I’d rather have Hoff on the bench seeing limited ML pitching and ready to step in if Derrek goes down, than smashing AAA hitting again.

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day." ~ Frank Sinatra

by DMCub on Mar 22, 2009 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

+1

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 22, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The "replace Lee" talk has little to do with Hoffpauir.

It has a lot to do with Derrek Lee.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Mar 23, 2009 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

classic

Lou: hit Aramis 3rd for the love of everything baseball.

by kylejo on Mar 23, 2009 7:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

+27

by nathew on Mar 24, 2009 2:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

People expected Ryan Howard to be good when he came up

He was one of the top prospects in baseball. Not so with Hoffpauir, who has never projected to be more than the role that he is going to fill this season – extra bat on the bench.

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

would you

seriously argue that the Phillies did the right thing by keeping him in the minor leagues and paying Jim Thome $10mm/year to do the same job?

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thome signed with the Phillies before the 2003 season

Howard was still working his way through the minors, which he tore through much more quickly than anyone expected. Thome was putting up MVP numbers with the Phillies in 03 and 04, before getting injured and giving Howard the opportunity to win his ROY award.

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tore through is right

2004 at age 24, Howard had 46 HR’s between AA and AAA.

by rlpete on Mar 22, 2009 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and the same people who projected Howard

were they also projecting Corey Patterson, Felix Pie, Ronnie Cedeno, Gary Scott, etc, etc, etc

projections are a nice thing to use for fantasy line ups, but they are far from a perfect science

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 22, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

projections are based on past performance

Projections are more accurate than mere speculation. You certainly understand that the projections are based on what the player has done, how old he is and what other similar players have done. It’s not perfect but it’s better than mindless speculation. BTW, Baseball Prospectus had very favorable projections for Geovany Soto before last season.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 22, 2009 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Projections are science...

…cold, hard, regression. Not perfect science, no, but a hard math science, yes.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ward, at least, could play OF once in a while.

He wasn’t nearly as bad as Hoffpauir is out there. Plus, Ward actually was good at pinch-hitting. We have no evidence that Hoffpauir is.

You’re right about Randall Simon — he came on board for one specific need, and once Lee was acquired, he was let go. He was only a Cub for a couple of months.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 22, 2009 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ward was good at pinch walking...

He also got some singles here and there, but offered ZERO power in the pinch hitting role as a Cub.

by kanderber on Mar 23, 2009 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, not exactly zero.

Ward hit a pinch hit home run to win a game in Florida off of Gregg last year.

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Mar 23, 2009 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

his speed, which is less than anyone I can think of

was great for turning doubles into singles (for him) while in the firld he could allow a single to become a triple

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 23, 2009 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Cedeno pinch-ran for Ward 30 times last year

It was always a PR, and it was always Cedeno.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Mar 23, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

We could easily see that again this year with Hoffpauir

When he reaches, Gathright runs for him.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Mar 23, 2009 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

but if Gathright doesn't make the team, what then?

WHY OH WHY IN THE NAME OF HUMANITY DID WE TRADE MARQUIS???

(heh heh heh…)

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 23, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Theodore Roosevelt Lilly.

He’s tougher than Marquis on the bases.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Mar 23, 2009 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

-5

by nathew on Mar 24, 2009 2:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was at that game. HUGE HR!

Ward also hit a PH HR off of Tony Pena in a loss to the Diamondbacks in July.

Daryle Ward pinch hit for Chad Gaudin.

"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland

by flachimesa on Mar 23, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Al, I think your bench assessment is spot on, so with that in mind

maybe you could dial down the anti-Hoffness and dial up the jabs on Hendry and/or Lou for assembling said bench.

Hoffpauir is clearly a DH/1B type – it’s not his fault Lou keeps running him out to the outfield.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 22, 2009 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right, which is why...

… I keep saying Hendry should be on the lookout for a LH bat who can play OF/3B/1B. Maybe no such player exists.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 22, 2009 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I really don’t like this bench. Gathright just plain can’t hit. He reminds me of the bench players in the Dusty era. Miles has no pop. Then there is Hoffpauir and his 73 major league AB’s.

They need a reliable LH bat and someone who can play 3rd.

by rlpete on Mar 22, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hoff is the lefty big bat.

I completely understand that idea – Hendry and Lou want a lefty big bat on the bench, always have, and they’ve apparently decided that Hoff is good enough for that role.

Using Gathright instead of Pie is stupid, was stupid at the time of Joey’s acquisition, and became stupider with the fire sale trade of Pie.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Mar 23, 2009 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

loober?

lefty one on batter?

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 23, 2009 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

probably not - at least of those that are available.

Lou and Hendry are going to have to get together and figure out the lesser of all their evils, i.e. what shortcoming they’re willing to live with.

Personally I think trying to find another LH bat is silly. I think the ability to competently field the position (3B/1B) is far more important. If he bats LH, well, that’s just gravy.

This is getting very similar to the thin ice Hendry put the Cubs on with the backup C spot, just because of which side of the plate they swing from.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 22, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And all of this was a reaction to not having enough LH hitters...

… vs. the Dodgers in the playoffs. It’s as if that was the ONLY reason the Cubs lost the three straight.

This obsession could bite the Cubs in the butt if, say, they play a team with a LH-heavy staff in the postseason. What then, Jim?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 22, 2009 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What I don't understand is why Hendry

didn’t go after Eric Hinske this offseason. He signed with Pittsburgh for what, about a million or so? He hasn’t played 3rd regularly in a few years, but would be a more qualified backup than Miles. And, he can play 1b, lf, and rf, with power off the bench. It seemed like a perfect fit to me.

"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin

by davidalanu on Mar 22, 2009 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

at least gameboard can switch.

Lou: hit Aramis 3rd for the love of everything baseball.

by kylejo on Mar 23, 2009 8:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

FWIW

I was looking at at 2003 media guide, I think it was, and in the minor league section they listed Hoffpauir as an infielder/outfielder. So as far back as then they thought he could do it. This isn’t just a Piniella thing.

"When they signed Fukudome, I knew they were trying to get me fired". - Ron Santo, January, 2008

by BeerCub on Mar 22, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

well that was 6 years ago

there’s lots of things I could do 6 years ago that I may still try to do today, but I’d probably look as foolish as Hoff running down a fly ball in the corner… ;-)

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 22, 2009 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question.

You can list players as anything you want, but looking at the games he actually played in the outfield in the minor leagues, he was pretty bad there, too.

85 games, 86 putouts and 4 assists, and nine errors. That’s a .909 fielding percentage. That would be bad for an infielder. For an outfielder it’s pathetic.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 22, 2009 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes the Cubs tried him in the OF in the minors

however 9 errors in 85 games in the OF probably convinced them he isn’t an OF’er.

by rlpete on Mar 22, 2009 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Season starts soon, right?

Right?

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 2:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Not soon enough.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 22, 2009 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

+english lady

spring training has gone on way way too long.

The shortest distance between two points is under construction.

by halfblindcubbiegirl on Mar 23, 2009 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, about that "point"...

What is it, really? I mean, what was the point to this thread. So people are wrong now and then. The sun sets in the West as well. Death and taxes. Does “pointing” this out make one more observant or perceptive? Not really.

"When they signed Fukudome, I knew they were trying to get me fired". - Ron Santo, January, 2008

by BeerCub on Mar 22, 2009 2:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think its pretty obvious

but in case not let me say it again: those who are saying that Micah Hoffpauir is not and will never be a major league player, are making that up. I know they are making that up because when they said it about Soto they were making it up then too.

However it turns out with the benefit of hindsight — whether Hoff turns out to be great, or turns out to be a bum — the fact remains that the people predicting failure for Hoff are just making it up.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Making it up? Of course not....

…. it’s just their opinion, based on information they possess, same as you.

"When they signed Fukudome, I knew they were trying to get me fired". - Ron Santo, January, 2008

by BeerCub on Mar 22, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the information

being that he’s tearing it up in AAA, Spring Training, and in brief call-up stints.

I don’t know about you, but I don’t see an evidentiary basis for saying, despite those facts, that he can’t do the same thing for the big club. Maybe he can’t. But there’s no basis for that. Its made up.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Siggghh.....

Look, I happen to want him to succeed too, but that’s more based on his perseverance than anything else. That he hasn’t ended up like David Kelton, Nate Frese, Jason Dubois, Buck Coats, Jackson Melian, Nic Jackson or any other of a number of his contemporaries, that he’s still here, appeals to me. But the fact he’s HAD to persevere says something for the assessment that maybe, just maybe, he IS a AAAA instead of a legit major leaguer. And what I don’t get about you is your insistence on being RIGHT, that their opinion of Hoffpauir is made up. It’s their opinion, just like it’s your OPINION they’re making it up. Opinons, we all got’em.

"When they signed Fukudome, I knew they were trying to get me fired". - Ron Santo, January, 2008

by BeerCub on Mar 22, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll take history on my side

I don’t see a 29 year-old 1st baseman who’s repeated AAA for 4 years ever amounting to much. Of course, Hoffpauir could become the first.

by rlpete on Mar 22, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of Julio Zuleta and Hee Sop Choi

Did anyone else see him playing for Panama in the WBCS? I saw him in one game and he didn’t do much. He was someone I hoped would work out better for the Cubs. He could really make a baseball fly when he connected. It’s just too bad he rarely connected.

Is Hee Sop Choi on the Korean WBCS team? Anybody know what he’s doing now?

by Mike Vails Evil Twin on Mar 22, 2009 2:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Choi is not on the Korean WBC team.

Brief mention of him in Phil Rogers’ column today.

It appears that Choi was never really the same after the collision with Kerry Wood — that concussion perhaps effectively ended any chance for him to become a productive major league regular.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 22, 2009 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the info

That’s a shame about Choi. It sounds like he’ll never make it back to the majors, but I hope he can come back and at least play a few more years in Korea.

by Mike Vails Evil Twin on Mar 22, 2009 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Check the facts

In case you didn’t realize it, Soto was 24 when he made his major league debut. Comparing Soto and Hoffpauir is apples and oranges.

Also Howard debuted at 24 not 26 as you state, won ROY at 25 and MVP at 26. Hoffpauir made his major league debut at 28 in case you forgot after spending most of four seasons at AAA.

Now who is making things up?

by rlpete on Mar 22, 2009 2:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

not making things up

I was referring to his first full season, which you say was at age 25. I said it was 26 because that was 2005 and he was born in 1979. 2006-1979=26, but presumably he was born late in the year and I admittedly didnt account for that. So I guess you’re saying he was born in one of the autumn months, my bad.

But if thats the best response you have, then wow, I really dont feel all that chastened.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK...

How about MVP at 26? Sorry if you don’t see the difference between that and a major league debut at 28 with 73 AB’s.

by rlpete on Mar 22, 2009 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do see a difference:

opportunity. Howard finally got his, Hoff still hasn’t. Until he’s had one (whether with us or a team in the AL) you have no idea whether the guy you’re talking about is a legitimate hitter or an upgrade over the current position.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Howard had 46 HR's in 2004 at age 24

Hoffpauir line in AAA at age 25: .268 / .334 / .342. So at the same age that Howard was winning ROY, Hoffpauir was slugging .342 in AAA. What sort of shot should he have gotten with that impressive line?

Comparing the two is utter silliness.

by rlpete on Mar 22, 2009 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Opportunity is a difference maker often

had Sosa been the same kid we traded for and we were in contention then like we are now, he would have been in the same shoes as Hoff, since he was a big K, bad base runner, bad fielder, with some pop at the time. He benefited from some lousy Cub teams allowing him to learn on the job, instead of learning at Iowa

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 22, 2009 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Look at the facts

Sosa debuted at 20. At age 24, his major league line as a full-time starter was .261 / .309 / .485. As I pointed elsewhere, at age 25 in AAA, Hoffpauir line was .268 / .334 / .342.

Please tell me what sort of opportunity a 1st baseman who slugs .342 in AAA should be given?

by rlpete on Mar 22, 2009 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good Suggestion

Let’s look at the facts. By picking the line you have, you are cherry-picking in a way that distorts his overall record. After the season you suggested, Hoffpauir had three dramatically better seasons:

2006 (AA/AAA total) .267/ .351 /.501, 22 HRs, 80 RBI.

2007 (AAA) .319 /.365/.552 16 HRs, 73 RBI.

2008 (AAA) .362 /.393 /.752 25 HRs, 100 RBI (in only 71 games b/c of the callup).

So, tell me, what opportunity does a .501 slugging, or .552 slugging, or .752 slugging first baseman deserve? Perhaps just a call-up to the majors. What did he do then?

2008 (MLB) .342 /.400 /.534 2 HR, 8 RBI.

So, no, there are no “facts” that say this kid can’t hit. There are only people saying “in spite of all the facts, he can’t hit.” Just as they said about Soto.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you beat me to it

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 22, 2009 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A 29 year old first baseman who repeated AAAA four times

deserves a chance. He’ll get it but I’m not holding my breath that he is anything more than a marginal player. You can believe he is some freak of nature than will appear on the scene at 29 and become a good major league player.

by rlpete on Mar 22, 2009 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Subliminal slip

AAA instead of AAAA.

by rlpete on Mar 22, 2009 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

he would not be the first who

gets it together late in his career. only one way to find out, give him a chance to prove he is able to or not.

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 22, 2009 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Name some others...

… with this little experience at age 29, who “got it together” and had anything more than a marginal career.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 22, 2009 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

see my comment about Brad Ziegler

sure he was only 28, but that is a primse example

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 22, 2009 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

prime***

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 22, 2009 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

again

David Ortiz became a significantly better player — from marginal to MVP/global icon — at 28.

Scott Podsenik was 27 when he got his first real shot. Now he’s married to a playmate. That could be Hoff, dating Miss May instead of Miss Desmoines.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ms May

better EA!

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 22, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And, I might add

its not as if his success is new this spring at age 29. He hit at 28 (2008); he hit at 27 (2007); and he hit at 26 (2006). Yes, I think its possible a guy who couldn’t figure it out in his early 20s figured it out by his mid-20s and his been struggling for an opportunity to prove it into his late 20s.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ortiz was an established player by age 27.

He had 58 major league home runs and over 1500 major league at-bats.

The situations are not comparable.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 22, 2009 4:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

which is it?

At bats or performance that you are using to measure a player? I thought your point was Hoffpauir could not have improved sufficiently between, say, 24 and 29, to think that he’s good enough to hit at this level.

Well, 58 HR in 1500 major league at-bats is one every 25 at bats. Not so good. That produced season totals of 9, 10, 18 and 20 HRs. Beginning at age 28, in Boston, Ortiz put up seasons of 31, 41, 47, 54 and 35.

So when you tell me he was “established” and had 1500 ABs by age 27, all you’re telling me is he had more opportunities. I grant you that. But he didn’t do much with those chances. After age 28 — and now we’re back to the issue I thought you were discussing — at he improved dramatically and became one of the most dominant players in the game.

So yes, some people are a lot better at an advanced age than they were in their mid-20s. Some even become MVPs.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're using an extreme example here.

You’re not suggesting that Micah Hoffpauir could be David Ortiz, are you? Because that’s just silly.

Why is this a fair comparison?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 22, 2009 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm suggesting that if we had this conversation in November 2002, I would have said

David Ortiz, who at that time was 26 years old, and had just finished a season with a .272 average 20 HRs, and 75 RBI, could not have become, by age 29, the David Ortiz who hit .300 with 47 HR and 148 RBI.

Right now when you look at Hoff you see the 2002 David Ortiz, at best. And you think “thats all he can possibly be.” Well, 2005 David Ortiz says otherwise.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

I could have said that more clearly.

Rephrase it as:

I’m suggesting that if we had this conversation in November 2002, I would have said David Ortiz could not have become David Ortiz as we think about him today. He was a totally forgettable player at age 26; by 29 he was a global icon and a potential hall of famer. Its only bc of what he did after age 28 that you think the comparison “extreme” or “silly” at all.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think he was "totally forgettable".

Had he continued what he had done up to that time, we’d see him now as a serviceable major league player, a longtime regular (probably at DH somewhere).

Micah Hoffpauir has 73 major league AB at age 29. If you see “2002 David Ortiz” in that, you’d have to take at least three years off his age.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 23, 2009 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ortiz

turned it on as soon as he left Minnesota. It is widely known here that Tom Kelly was very adamant on teaching him to hit to the opposite field, as soon as he hit Boston and let out his natural swing all his numbers went up.

by bheidge on Mar 22, 2009 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or

dare I say it? Juice?

Sadly, we have to wonder that about EVERYONE with a jump in their power stats now. =(

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Mar 23, 2009 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Casey Blake

had only 112 at-bats through his age 28 year, and he’s had a decent career.

"The finish line is just the start of the next race."

by Sobenergy on Mar 22, 2009 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lucky for him that Travis Fryman retired

and the Cleveland Indians signed as a FA to a minor-league contract in Dec. 2002. He made good.

Unfortunate for Micah, DLee is not retiring. And you don’t bench a $13M contract for a spring training hot-hitting, defense-challenged career minor leaguer.

"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland

by flachimesa on Mar 22, 2009 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I just wanted to reply to Al’s request for older players with little experience who turned out to have decent careers. I don’t expect Hoff to get many starts this year, but it’s possible he can be a decent player in the majors for a few years.

"The finish line is just the start of the next race."

by Sobenergy on Mar 22, 2009 9:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You do if the $13M man can't hit anymore.

See our CF situation for an obvious example of an 8-figure player being moved to the side.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Mar 23, 2009 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

truly

why is everyone so hung up on the money? D-Lee’s contract is in the budget, as is a spot for a second first baseman making the minimum. If Lee plays poorly — and I’ve said all along, as the incumbent he gets the benefit of the doubt and should play until he proves he can’t — why would his salary justify keeping him in the lineup? Whether the player makes $0.5mm or $13 mm, they’re both on the roster and you should play the one that does the most effective job.

by Orval Overall on Mar 23, 2009 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree....but the Lees and Sorianos and Ramirezes (sp?)

have slumps, too. They play through them.

You just don’t bench these players for long periods of time for a hot bat off the bench.

Now, that doesn’t mean Hoffpauir can’t be woven into lineup in different positions if he continues to hit. BTW, have you seen him play OF? He’s a goober.

"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland

by flachimesa on Mar 23, 2009 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

First, let's see if Fukudome gets benched

I say he’s in the starting lineup for a few weeks before any further decisions are made. I hope he does well.

Second, Lee is not done yet. Definely not enough to lose the starting job to Hoffpauir.

"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland

by flachimesa on Mar 23, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

as I mentioned the other day...

Many said the same about A’s rght-hander Brad Ziegler, who began his career as a traditional starting pitcher and made it up to Triple-A, many figured he had hit his peak at AAA and was done. He became a reliever and made his debut last season at age 28. And for the record, he set the American League record for consecutive scoreless innings to start a big league career. Not to shabby for a 28 year old "prospect/AAAA player" if you ask me.

so yes, anything is possible when given the chance

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 22, 2009 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well let's see a second year

before we say Ziegler is anything but a marginal player.

His OBA/OBP/OSLG in September was .362 / .423 / .617.

by rlpete on Mar 22, 2009 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

so when Igive an example of a player who is successful

you look for any way to discount him also?

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 22, 2009 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Never said that

I’m saying I want to see a second year.

by rlpete on Mar 22, 2009 6:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think his last AAA stint was b/c of failure.

After his 2005 AAA stint, I think he wound up getting demoted. That went badly.

His 2006 AA/AAA stint was decent, though – good enough that if the big club had needed him to start ’07, he must have been at least considered. (Of course, that 2006 MLB team mailed in their entire season….)

In 2007, he put up a .917 OPS at age 27 in AAA – by that point, it was pretty established that he could hit at the AAA level, and it’s surprising to me that he didn’t see a September call-up.

His 2008 AAA season was just ridiculous, as I’m sure we can all agree.

My point, I guess, is that to say he repeated AAA 4 times is kind of inaccurate. First, because he only repeated it 3 times (the first year at AAA doesn’t count as a “repeat” year), second, because his final “repeat” year wasn’t really any fault of Hoff’s, as he’d already put up a .900+ OPS at the level.

It’s more like “he failed at AAA at age 25, got demoted to AA and then did okay at AAA at age 26, rocked AAA at age 27 and was one of the top hitters in the minor leagues at age 28.”

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Mar 23, 2009 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

yeah, and I bet you thought Hill was going to be a stud

and nobody thought that Soto would be as great as he became. It’s all a 20-20 thing..

#34: You'll be missed!

by Chanman25 on Mar 22, 2009 3:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

in a way, that's kind of my point.

If you don’t give the kid a shot, you don’t get the benefit of 20/20 vision, you just get people saying “oh, he’ll never make it”. He may ultimately fail, but hitting .362 /.393 /.752 with 25 HRs and 100 RBI in 73 games at AAA (improving his stat line for the 3d straight year), then following it up with .342 /.400 /.534 in the big leagues, earns him the opportunity to fail.

Then we can all sit around and gab about what we genuinely “know” to be the case with the benefit of 20/20 vision in hindsight.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What do you mean by "a shot"?

Lou’s as much as said that he’s making the team. Do you think he should replace Derrek Lee? The difference between Hoffpauir and Lee in the majors is 40-50 points of OBP, and 5 or 6 runs on defense.

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

as long as

DLee DOES NOT continue to decline as he has been. Meaning , that this entire debate is guess work, nothing more than that

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 22, 2009 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i guess i mean

if Lee slumps, as he did much of last year, you play the other guy. Lee is the incumbent, and if he plays well then keep playing him. But if Lee struggles again and they don’t play Hoff — multiple starts in a row, not just spot starts and PH duty — that isnt a shot.

Agree with Tim this is academic at this point. But its a debate bc there is a strong group of people who think the scenario I just outlined is ridiculous no matter how poorly lee plays.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're mistaking the intentions of these people

Of course, in the scenario where Lee’s production totally collapses, Hoffpauir will be the one to step in. Who else would? In all the other cases though, Lee is a better hitter than Hoffpauir.

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

most of us for Hoff

are talking about spot starts, not replacing Dlee……unless Dlee declines too the point where it is hard to watch him play.

I say in April, Hoff needs to get a three day start stretch at least once at 1B to see IF he is up to the challange (as I believe he is) so that IF anything happens to Dlee we can all be more confident that we will not be in a lot of trouble. April is good for that with the cold weather (Lees injuries will enjoy some cold weather resting) and it is early enough a loss or two will not kill the season.

just my two cents

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 22, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lou won't do that, though.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 22, 2009 4:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's not a kid.

by sue369 on Mar 22, 2009 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Luis

This post too will be revisited once Soto tests positive for steroids or falls off a cliff if he stops using them.

I have said similar things to Al considering Pie (basically that I don’t think he’ll be a productive offensive player ever) and I know there’s a chance I could be wrong.

Now, if Lee continues his perturbing trend of decline Hoff might get a chance to show if he can be a useful hitter in the majors.

by Luis on Mar 22, 2009 3:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Wait a minute, please

Where on earth are you getting the idea that Soto is on roids?

He lost weight in the minors, improved his swinging out of the zone, and puts in a TON of time with all of his pitchers.

So far, he hasn’t…

Been a SB threat and then turned into the biggest power threat in the majors.

I can understand being suspicious of all ballplayers, but assuming that all of them use it belittles the sport.

Recovered from multiple injuries faster than any human being should.

Ballooned his body to circus-freak like proportions while keeping his skull the same size.

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? - Jim Bouton

by Beaushek on Mar 22, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Holy bad work computer...

Put the third to last line at the bottom and then it might make a lil’ more sense

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? - Jim Bouton

by Beaushek on Mar 22, 2009 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

One question

Have you looked at Soto’s minor league numbers?

For 4-5 years he was very bad to very average as a hitter, in danger of becoming a career minor leaguer, and then all of the sudden he “loses some weight” and becomes one of the best hitting catchers in the majors.

How much can a person improve by beign on a diet in a single offseason? I bet you that all the years he was bad he was working hard too.

I will never buy it.

Plus, his idol is Ivan Rodriguez, a guy who everybody knows was on steroids… He even almost admitted it to, when asked if he could be on the 2003 list and answered “only God knows”. I know they are from the same country and all, but if you really care about the game you won’t choose as an idol someone like that. That doesn’t mean you have to condemn him either, but hopefully you get my point. Kinda reminds me of A-Rod when asked about Barry Bonds before it was knows he was on ’ roids. It’s a very interesting read.

Time, as always, will tell the tale.

by Luis on Mar 22, 2009 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sorry, Luis.

I don’t usually “attack” someone, but this is how really bad rumors get started. I really don’t think there is any justifiable claim to the notion that Geo Soto did/does steroids. Soto was the model of consistency last year, and I would like to this there was a correlation between his weight loss and improved hitting performance. Just because there’s been an association with another play that may or may not have taken steroids does not mean Geovany took them, too.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Also Soto improved between 22 and 24

That’s a lot different than 32 to 34 or other late ages as many players did.

by rlpete on Mar 22, 2009 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not 22...

Per baseball reference, Soto’s breakout season came in his age 24 season. That year his OPS was 1.076. The year before, it was .699. Can a person improve .350 points by losing some weight? I guess it’s possible, but EXTREMELY improbable. His OPS in the seasons prior to his .699 was .750, .630, .744 and .714.

At least in my eyes, that is really really really suspicious.

by Luis on Mar 22, 2009 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

One mistake

The year before 1.074 he hit for .739. Here is the complete list by year.

2001: .714.
2002: .744:
2003: .630.
2004: .750.
2005: .699.
2006: .739.
2007: 1.076.

That just looks…………..

by Luis on Mar 22, 2009 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It looks like he got in shape and figured out how to hit.

As noted above, if this had happened in his 30’s, I’d be suspicious.

I think you are throwing around thinly veiled accusations. That’s really unfair to Soto.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 22, 2009 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok

Under that logic, then noone should ever be suspicious of any player under 30 based on statistics. If that’s your point, I respect it, but I don’t agree with it.

by Luis on Mar 22, 2009 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think you should be suspicous of any player

until you have a positive test. Look at the guys who got busted – lots of them were fringy speed players and fringy relievers

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

That’s your opinion. I have a different one. By your logic you are saying that if there is no testing nobody has a right to be suspicious of anyone. So, pre-2004 if anyone was suspicious of anybody then that person was wrong for being suspcious.

And btw, today’s testing is a joke. To me, it’s almost as if there was no testing.

by Luis on Mar 22, 2009 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's more that I have a different opinion on the so-called benefits of steriods

I think a lot of players used them, and it would be very hard to tell who did. Using steroids to MAINTAIN stats or stay healthy is much more difficult to detect than steroid-induced improvements.

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't agree with that all

I think steroids boosts performance in baseball greatly, not just because it keeps you healthy to accumulate stats, but because your perform at a greater level. I have no doubts about that at all.

by Luis on Mar 22, 2009 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Steroids allow you to recover more quickly from workouts...

… meaning you can work out longer, and, presumably, get stronger.

I don’t see Soto having bulked up like Pudge did.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 22, 2009 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

But, but, but...

Steve Stone said…

The first I heard anyone mention Soto and steroids in the same sentence was Steve Stone being his normal snarky self with Boers and Bernstein. He basically said that there was no other explanation. While it’s certainly possible, I thought it was an incredibly irresponsible thing for him to say.

"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin

by davidalanu on Mar 22, 2009 8:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Steve Stone loves

to hear himself talk.

by sue369 on Mar 23, 2009 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, didn't the entire PCL go offense-happy in 2007?

I mean, I’m happy that some of our guys continued to hit in MLB, but that 2007 I-Cubs team had like 5 monster offensive players.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Mar 23, 2009 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If taking steriods can give you a 350 point increase in OPS

then it would be in the economic best interest of many, many players to take steriods. I’m still very skeptical of the claims about the mythical power increases that steroids give a player. If Soto (and I very very much do not think he did) or any other player took them, by far the main benefit is in injury recovery time.

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question

Do you believe Bonds used steroids?

Because that basically answers your question/comments.

by Luis on Mar 22, 2009 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, yes, because he did

but did the benefit he derived from them stem from giving him additional power or from keeping him on the field? Don’t forget, Bonds was arguably one of the top 10 players of all time even before he allegedly started using. The jury is still out there, and Bonds is a sample size of one.

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You asked if

a .350 increase in OPS was possible because of steroids. Bonds peaked in his “normal” career with an OPS above 1.000 and below 1.100 for about 8 years (only one year above 1.100 and it was 1.135 in 1993). Then, in his “other” career he had OPS of 1.378, 1.381 and 1.421. Even if he is 1, you asked if it was possible. There is your evidence. Unless you don’t believe was on roids.

by Luis on Mar 22, 2009 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to quote cwyers here

The actual peak season for baseball players is 34 to 37 years old. Those players who stay relatively healthy up to those ages will perform better than their younger selves. The older player has had years of training and performance, which gives that player a significant advantage over the more inexperienced player or pitcher. The fact that Barry Bonds had his best season at 37, therefore, is “normal,” and not “bewildering!”

In addition, in 2007—long after he was alleged to have been “cheating” with use of steroids, well into his 40s and not alleged to be using steroids and while his urine was being regularly tested—Barry Bonds was the best hitter in the National League in 2007 at the advanced age of 43!

(link)

Bonds also allegedly started using in 99, and we don’t see a sudden jump in OPS in 99-00. I think it’s more that Bonds is a freak of nature who managed to stay healthy, possibly through the use of steriods. We just don’t know exactly what they did.

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A couple of things

What evidence is there that the peak for performance is 34-37?

How in the world does this guy assume that A-Rod only took steroids from 2001-2003? That is just silly.

How does he know that Bonds didn’t take steroids until his last at-bat? There are lots of stuff you can take that won’t show on a urine test.

by Luis on Mar 22, 2009 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How do you know he did?

All we know is that he did not test positive. You’re the one who’s making wild assumptions here.

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 5:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's not me at all.

Peak age for offense is about 27, peak age overall is probably closer to 24-25. (Remember, defense and baserunning peak at around age 22.)

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Mar 22, 2009 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoops, sorry Colin

It popped up in a Google search – I was trying to find something MB mentioned the other day about studying the supposed effects of steroids

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you're looking at a guy's OPS

to determine if he did steroids, that is more than a far reach, it’s way beyond the Bridge to Nowhere. I’m trying to find Geo’s weight over the years, but can’t find it anywhere. Comparing someone like Bonds—who gained a lot of weight, hat sizes, muscle, etc.—to someone like Geo, who actually lost weight and game total has increased from roughly 110 games to 140 games at the pro level is just flat out not an accurate comparison at all. This conversation is ridiculous.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

When did I compare Soto to Bonds?

by Luis on Mar 22, 2009 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

But on the scale of suspiciousness, he is my #1 guy.

Does that mean he used steroids? No. There’s not way to know for sure if he has used them or if he hasn’t used them. It’s just my opinion, no more, no less. The fact that I feel very strongly about it doesn’t make it true either.

Btw, the fact that he was ultra consistent last year doesn’t bring evidence either way, cause he could be consistently great because he is a great hitter, or he can be consistent great because he is an average hitter on steroids.

by Luis on Mar 22, 2009 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does the fact that Soto was always

young for his league throughout his minor league career enter into your analysis? 20 in the FSL, 21 in the Southern League and 22 in the PCL. That’s awfully young in my book.

"Enough foreplay- let's get crackin'"- Fred Garvin

by davidalanu on Mar 22, 2009 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Analysis"

by Wreckard on Mar 24, 2009 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

WOW

I never thought I would see Bonds defended and Cub players thrown under a bus bu Cub fans

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 22, 2009 4:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The world is coming to an end ;)

by Luis on Mar 22, 2009 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

some people just like to win a debate

They don’t care if throwing a player from their fav team under a bus… just as long as they can prove they are right.

"That's what you live for. You live for the opportunity and when that day comes, you better be ready," Soto said. "I tried to make sure that whenever they gave me a chance, I was ready and I knew I had to take advantage of the opportunity."

by Madison Cub Fan on Mar 22, 2009 7:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

while looking at projections for what a player will or will not be able to do

please show me the projections of:

Rocker losing it out of no where
Hill losing it last season
Ankiel would lose it as a starter and return as an OF

projections are nice to look at, but they are not 100% accurate, nor promised/guaranteed to be spot on. They are educated guess work (like a weatherman).

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 22, 2009 5:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Of course projections aren't 100% accurate

That’s why they’re called projections.

What they do tell you is that, based on the vast amount of data accumulated over MLB history and applying that to the performance of a specific player, what that player will PROBABLY do. Of course, stuff can happen – that’s why people play the lottery. But playing the lottery because sometimes it pays out is as good as an idea as eschewing projections because they are wrong sometimes.

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and we were projected

to see the Cubs in the last two WS….how did that work out?

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 22, 2009 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are you serious?

Just because the Cubs were the best team in the NL doesn’t mean that they were automatically going to win. There are HUGE sample size issues in a playoff series. All the projections can say is that the Cubs are the most LIKELY team to win – no credible projection claimed that the Cubs were locks to win the pennant.

Projections are much more stable over a 162-game season, not 5 (or 7) games.

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

its a projection, right?

now you are saying which projections can be taken valid projections, and which cannot be taken as valid?

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 22, 2009 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

All projections cannot be taken equal

Projections for a 162-game season are much more reliable than projections for 5 to 7 games. If you want more justification, may I introduce you to the Central Limit Theorem?

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

Let me give you an example of basic statistics. Let’s say you flip a coin five times. All five times, it comes up heads. Does this mean that the coin is weighted and will always come up heads? Of course not. If you flip the coin 1000 times, you will get a number that is MUCH closer to 50/50, which is the probability that a coin will land on a certain side. The same thing applies to the playoffs as compared to the regular season. The regular season does a very good job of determining who the best teams are because it helps eliminate any chance of statistical anomaly. However, when you enter a three-game playoff, crazy things can happen. That’s why it’s very tough to project how a playoff series will turn out, because there is a much higher chance for something crazy happening as opposed to a 162 game season.

If you ignore this, you just don’t care about being educated because it’s pretty easy to understand.

"Those are my principles, and if you don’t like them, well, I have others." - Groucho Marx

by Keith on Mar 22, 2009 7:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand all you are saying

and I am not an idiot, I understood it before you said it.

my point is we weigh too mch in projections sometimes, and forget that the games are played for a reason, and that reason being that projections are a guess, not a guarantee. If projections were exactly right and no questions about if they were going to happen or not, then the games would not be played, and we would have a MLB version of the BCS.

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 22, 2009 8:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And nobody says that they're 100% accurate.

Nobody says that they are. However, they can be very accurate.

"Those are my principles, and if you don’t like them, well, I have others." - Groucho Marx

by Keith on Mar 22, 2009 9:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay, but what's the alternative?

What are you arguing for here? All of his projections have him as league average to slightly above as a hitter. But he’s either a middling defensive first baseman or a simply bad defensive outfielder, and he doesn’t project to hit well enough to offset that as a full-time player. Certainly not better than Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano or Milton Bradley.

So we’re left with – what? Yes, it’s possible that he’s better than his projection (albeit less likely than I think you are giving it credit for), but what if he is? What should we do about this possibility? The guy’s a C prospect, who has had no reported trade interest whatsoever. You can find guys similar to Hoffpauir as minor league free agents this time of year (the Cubs had a guy with similar minor league numbers in Jason Dubois and we just cut him from camp). The Cubs can’t trade him, at least not for something particularly useful.

There’s no evidence that he’s better than Lee, so we can’t start him.

So we either put him on the bench as a PH specialist or send him down to AAA as depth. I don’t know that there are 5 bench players substantially better than Hoffpauir in camp right now, so he probably makes the team. What more do you want?

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Mar 22, 2009 9:23 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Cubbie-Tim you're right

Projections are educated guess work. As opposed to uneducated, mindless speculation based upon someone’s gut. Just because a statistical system didn’t project Ankiel or Hill’s demise does that mean it’s not accurate? Who or what did project those events? Nobody had a gut feeling that was going to happen. There are some things that are statistical anomalies and that doesn’t make other statistics less valid.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 22, 2009 6:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This thread is making my head hurt. The discussion is okay, it's just a bit...out there in left field.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 5:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I've heard this for years....27-years-old is peak age of players

According to statistical analysis and SABRnomics, Micah should be in a decline.

looky here

and

here

and

here.

"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland

by flachimesa on Mar 22, 2009 5:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

given the chance

Hoffpauir most likely would be exposed as being average to below if given enough at bats. The other problem with him is that he is terrible defensively. It is beyond me why people are so convinced that this guy “deserves” a chance.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 22, 2009 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

define "probably" in that sentence

What makes it probable? The fact that he hit .362 in a large sample last year at AAA, or .342 in a small sample at the big league level. Which of those supports a probability of failure in a larger big-league sample.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 6:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, you said "most likely", not probably. Same question however.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

chone projections

Derrek Lee: .293/ .376/ .494 in 532 at bats
Micah Hoffpauir: .273/ .332/ .473 in 408 at bats

Okay, please tell me why he should take away at bats from Derrek Lee or anyone else for that matter. The guy has also proven he can’t field a position and doesn’t have enough power to be a DH. I also don’t remember him having very much success in the pinch hitting opportunities he’s had. I’m still waiting to see the silver lining on this guy. He’s a 25th man at best and he is such a poor fielder that he has little value as a back-up.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 22, 2009 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

who's chone?

and what is the projection based on? There are facts (.362 last year at AAA, .319 the year before that) and then there’s some dude saying “Yeah, but, I think if he had to do it for a full year he’d hit … … oh, right about .273.”

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 6:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

Who’s Chone?! I get it! Like Chone Figgins!

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 6:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No I'm serious

Is there some company called Chone that honestly and truly has an idea what some kid who’s never gotten a long look at the MLB level is going to do when he gets such a look? Really? Ask them who’s going to win it all this year. And then tell me who they say so I can go to Vegas and become a zillionaire.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

At least CHONE Projections is giving your boy 408 AB

Bill James—you do know who he is, yes?—is projecting him at 187 AB.

Here are other projections for Micah.

"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland

by flachimesa on Mar 22, 2009 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

isnt the number of ABs he should get

the thing we are discussing?

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's just no way in hell Micah gets 408 at-bats.

Unless GameBoard gets madly injured, Lee gets injured, and the market for available corner OFs/1Bs is grossly inflated or limited.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 6:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

or as a DH for an AL team

after he’s traded

"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland

by flachimesa on Mar 22, 2009 7:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ZING!

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The iron's hot

Anybody in the market for a league-minimum-salaried defense-challenged hitter? Resume: Batting .277 but spring training leading 18 RBI.

"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland

by flachimesa on Mar 22, 2009 7:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, well, that's not as funny now.

If you’re trying to make projections, you should know Chone. Here’s free ones:

http://www.baseballprojection.com/

And here’s the guy that created the projections’ website:

http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/

Comparable to Zips or PETCO.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 6:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not trying to make projections.

You won’t find a single post from me saying what Hoff WILL or even PROBABLY WILL do. What I’m saying, in a nutshell, is that all these projections are just guesses, nothing more. Its one thing to take a guy with a history at the MLB level and “project” some ascending or descending career arc for him. But to take a guy hitting .360 and .319 in his last two AAA seasons and say, as a “projection”, that this translates to a probable .270 season at the major league level, is a cleverly-orchestrated sham.

I hope the “free” site is all anyone’s using. Paying for snakeoil doesnt mean its not snakeoil.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 6:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not a math major, eh?

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

even a better zing (IMHO)

"That's what you live for. You live for the opportunity and when that day comes, you better be ready," Soto said. "I tried to make sure that whenever they gave me a chance, I was ready and I knew I had to take advantage of the opportunity."

by Madison Cub Fan on Mar 22, 2009 7:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, economics, which applies math and statistics to useful purposes

and one of the central lessons is that when you look at a projection you need to know what its based on. To my way of thinking, its inherently contradictory for people to say on the one hand, Hoffs .360 AAA average and .340 MLB average last year are not reliable indicators of his play at the next level, and on the other hand, place heavy reliance on “projections” that are presumably based on those same numbers. Which is it? Are the numbers he put up last year a useful guide to the future, or not? If yes, the numbers suggest he will do quite well. If not, then there is no projection that can be made reliably.

But when someone says “we don’t have enough reliable data points to think the .340 average will play out over a full season,” they are necessarily also saying “we don’t have enough data points to think this .273 ‘projection’ is anything more than a guess.”

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

sabermagicians unite!

"That's what you live for. You live for the opportunity and when that day comes, you better be ready," Soto said. "I tried to make sure that whenever they gave me a chance, I was ready and I knew I had to take advantage of the opportunity."

by Madison Cub Fan on Mar 22, 2009 7:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"magicians" may be

a freudian slip, but its apt.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 7:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

no it's not

Last season there was someone on this site who was very anti sabermetrics…. that is what he referred to people who use sabermetrics as.

Ironically he was rarely right.

"That's what you live for. You live for the opportunity and when that day comes, you better be ready," Soto said. "I tried to make sure that whenever they gave me a chance, I was ready and I knew I had to take advantage of the opportunity."

by Madison Cub Fan on Mar 22, 2009 7:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did you change your picture? I want the old one back!

I like to think of it as less sabermetics and more “common sense, facts, math, and science”.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 7:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

this one seems to fit better

btw Friday OT win…. OMG

"That's what you live for. You live for the opportunity and when that day comes, you better be ready," Soto said. "I tried to make sure that whenever they gave me a chance, I was ready and I knew I had to take advantage of the opportunity."

by Madison Cub Fan on Mar 22, 2009 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah well...

…I feel VERY bad for Joe Krabbenhoft. His last game as a Badger and he goes out with 5 fouls and 0 points. Sad.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that is too bad.

but on the bright side to that… he got to play an extra game that I don’t think many expected them to. (I know I didn’t) Hell for about 30 minutes today it looked like he might be playing another one.

"That's what you live for. You live for the opportunity and when that day comes, you better be ready," Soto said. "I tried to make sure that whenever they gave me a chance, I was ready and I knew I had to take advantage of the opportunity."

by Madison Cub Fan on Mar 22, 2009 10:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

for instance

when someone tells you they “project” the DOW to rebound to 10,000 by 12/31/09, do you believe them? Why? There isnt another data point like this one. Its unchartered waters, so they can guess it will hit 10K within 9 months, and they may say that because their job requires them to, but really they have no idea whatsoever whether it will go up or down from here, by how much, and at what rate.

Ditto for the Hoff. There are models that presumably can say what other AAA performances have translated to at the MLB level, and i promise you they are so idiosynchratic as to essentially look like a billion dots with a few clusters in various places. He has no MLB track record for you to project off of. Maybe he’ll be great; maybe he’ll be terrible; but “projections” in this area are hokum.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 7:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I seriously can't do this anymore.

I’m sorry. If you think the ONLY projection data that is used to project Micah’s 2009 season is his own data from 2008, you’re wrong. When he’s in AAA for the umpteenth time, I’ll be very happy.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

educate me then

what is it based on, other than guesses, band-aids and engine grease?

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 7:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's all good.

You stirred the boring BCB pot in spring training. 2 weeks before the season actually starts and we’re reduced to arguing the validity of math. Have a good evening. Go Team USA!

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 7:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

0 reliable data points + 0 reliable data points = .273

isnt math. Its guesswork.

Go team USA.

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually

What PECOTA does (if I remember correctly) is they compare similar players and how they have performed in similar situations at the same age. So while yes, it is a “guess”, it’s a much more educated one than a random person predicting that Hoffpauir will put up a .300/.365/.450 line because they think that it’s going to happen for whatever reason.

"Those are my principles, and if you don’t like them, well, I have others." - Groucho Marx

by Keith on Mar 22, 2009 9:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So minor league stats have 0 correlation to major league stats?

There’s plenty of reliable data points, they just don’t support your argument.

by Wreckard on Mar 25, 2009 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The minor league stats

are .362 average last year, and .319 the year before. The MLB stats are .340 in limited play. Somehow, the projection ends up as .273.

So yes, I think the AAA stats are relevant, thats what I’ve been saying all along. The point we’ve been making is they aren’t getting considered in the projection. The projection says “well, he’s a career minor leaguer, therefore he’ll hit like any other career minor leaguer when he gets to the show.”

by Orval Overall on Mar 25, 2009 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's not what the projection says

The projection says to stop putting words in its mouth. It also says – and it says this non-ironically, mind you, since computers can’t understand irony – that you’re projecting and you should cut it out.

The projection says it uses minor league stats. Cwyers described this in detail in the post just below this sub-thread.

The projection says it bases the weighting of minor league stats on the aggregated stats of minor leaguers who came before.

The projection also gives a 92% chance that you’re trolling and doing a bad job of it.

by Wreckard on Mar 25, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think

what i said is basically what you just described, that the projection is based on how other minor leaguers have performed as against their minor league numbers when they finally get to the majors. and, again, you seem not to care that his recent minor league numbers average out to the .340s, same as his MLB number, while the projection is 70 points lower. Thats just a little suspect to some of us.

by Orval Overall on Mar 25, 2009 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's the basic idea of how a projection system works.

Take the past three years of production.
Take a weighted average of that production, as well as the league average production, at 5/4/3/2.
Adjust for aging.

In other words, you weight Huff-P’s 2008 production (major league and translated minor league) at 5, his 2007 production at 4, his 2006 production at 3, and 650 PAs of the league average at 2.

That’s your baseline forecast – you include the player’s own performance with a touch of “regression to the mean,” the idea that extreme observations tend to become less extreme over time.

Then you age, based upon a typical aging curve.

You can get more complicated than this, and you get modestly better results than that. The tricky thing for guys like Hoffpauir are really the translations. Baseball forecasting for hitters is really very simple.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Mar 22, 2009 9:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm curious, then, how some projections are so much different

for the same player.

"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland

by flachimesa on Mar 22, 2009 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The key reasons...

…are going to typically be different translations or different baselines. (In other words, an .380 wOBA in a .350 wOBA average league is roughly equivelent to a .370 wOBA in a .340 wOBA league.)

The Bill James projections have a notoriously high average forecast and for the most part can be safely ignored.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Mar 22, 2009 10:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you prefer any over the others?

How would you rank them for closeness to accuracy as a whole? Thanks for your highly respected opinion and input.

"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland

by flachimesa on Mar 23, 2009 8:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’d go with forecasts in this order:

CHONE
PECOTA
ZiPS
CAIRO
Marcels

Best to do an average of all of them, maybe weighting some a bit more than others.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Mar 23, 2009 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You do realize that these things can - and have - been tested, right?

Typical margin of error for a projection system’s forecast is between 60-80 points of OPS, give or take.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Mar 22, 2009 9:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's hard to tell who you're replying to.

Grrr 2.0 SBN update….

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 9:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just click on "up" to see to which comment it's a reply

"Who's Bob Brenly? The guy that used to be the manager for Arizona?" ~ Alfonso Guilleard Soriano

by JohnM on Mar 23, 2009 5:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

WOW!

I have literally never done that before. Seriously, thanks.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 23, 2009 6:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks John

I never knew that either and it makes following an argu… er, debate much easier.

Steal a little and they throw you in jail, Steal a lot and they make you king -- Bob Dylan

by Emelie on Mar 23, 2009 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh, 313 PA isn't a large sample.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Mar 22, 2009 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yay!

Logic, reason, and facts! Thanks flach for bring this discussion back to reality.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good cites

Not sure which side you’re trying to support however. The third link says 27 is NOT the age, 29 is closer to it (Hoff’s actual age now), and there are an equal number of players who peak after that point than before:

"Those born in the ‘40s, however, peaked at 28.9, the ‘50s at 28.7, and the ‘60s (thank you, modern training methods) at an average age of 29.8.

It’s fair to say then, that most players through history have peaked closer to age 29 than 27. Albert also found that half of the players born in the ’60s peaked between age 27.9 and 32, while a quarter peaked before and a quarter after that age range. That could be another statistical fluke, of course. But it could also mean that the traditionalists are right on target and the smart-ass sabermetrician led his readers astray."

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So rather than Micah hitting his "peak" two years ago...

…he’s gonna hit it this year? So this is the best spring training of his life.

I just realized Micah Hoffpauir is a poor man’s Adam Dunn. Can’t play a position (at all), and hits balls very far.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 6:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Adam Dunn has incredible plate discipline

Hoffpauir does not

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 6:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hoff is Dunn without the massive power or the high walk totals

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 22, 2009 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs

Bingo!

This thread has over 200 comments. This one sums it all up.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 23, 2009 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was mocking Hoff.

Dunn is awesome. Hoff is not.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 22, 2009 6:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

considering ...

… this post http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2008/12/27/702692/the-case-for-adam-dunn , Im not so sure a “poor man’s Adam Dunn” is the most persuasive argument against Hoff. Unlike Dunn, he would come at the league minimum, and costs us no draft picks, so… But I don’t think its really an apt comparison. Dunn is the classic all or nothing hitter. Micah’s name notwithstanding, the “power” so far has been buckets of hard line drives, only 20 or so homers. But a .360 average with 20HR is pretty hard to argue with.

And yes, lets say this is his “peak” year and we get production this year on par with his call up last year, followed by 5 to 10% decline each of the next four years. Is that a reason not to play him extensively this year and next year when his production would still be quite good? So he wont play enough years to be Micah HOFpauir, but is that a reason not to play him now?

by Orval Overall on Mar 22, 2009 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The reason not to play him now is that Derrek Lee is better.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 22, 2009 6:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Derrek Lee certainly was better.

Since May 1 of last year, Derrek Lee has been pretty lousy.

If he continues to decline, there will come a point when even an average Hoff season will be an improvement.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Mar 23, 2009 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

There is no reason to believe that point is this season.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 23, 2009 6:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dunn is the classic all-or-nothing hitter....

who can take a walk. Hoffpauir is not. How hard is this?

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Mar 22, 2009 6:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly.

There’s no way Micah Hoffpauir hits. 360 playing full time. Do you know how many people have hit .360 in a full season in the last 40 years (since divisional play)?

Tony Gwynn, .394 in 1994 (not enough PA to qualify in a full season)
George Brett, .390 in 1980
Rod Carew, .388 in 1977
Larry Walker, .379 in 1999
Tony Gwynn, .370 in 1997
Barry Bonds, .370 in 2002
Jeff Bagwell, .368 in 1994 (not enough PA to qualify in a full season)
Wade Boggs, .367 in 1985
Wade Boggs, .366 in 1988
Larry Walker, .366 in 1997
Rico Carty, .366 in 1970
Chipper Jones, .365 in 2008
Larry Walker, .363 in 1998
Wade Boggs, .363 in 1987
John Olerud, .363 in 1993
Magglio Ordonez, .363 in 2007
Barry Bonds, .362 in 2004
Mike Piazza, .362 in 1997
Wade Boggs, .361 in 1983

19 times in 40 years by 13 different players. Orval Overall above cannot possibly be arguing that Micah Hoffpauir is comparable to any one of those players.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 23, 2009 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's some good company

ah, Rico Carty….the star of my Strat-o-Matic Baseball League.

"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland

by flachimesa on Mar 23, 2009 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yabut

who ever said he needs to hit .360 to be a worthwhile addition, or even an upgrade over D-Lee? Certainly I never said above he would hit .360. Those of us who have cited Hoff’s awesome year last year (.362 at AAA, .340 in MLB) use it as evidence — actual, objective, verifiable evidence, not some off-the-cuff assessment or statistical “projection” — that he can be a quality hitter.

Let’s say over a full season Hoff only hits .300 with 20 HR. That would be more or less the statistical average of D-Lee’s last two full seasons, where he hit 22 then 20 HR, and .317 then .291 for an average.

For that, would it be worth it to start Hoff over Lee? Probably not given D-Lee’s superior defense. But its not nearly as crazy as you seem to think it is.

by Orval Overall on Mar 23, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I tend to doubt

that Micah could hit .300 with 20 HR in a full season. None of the projections have him that high on either count. Maybe he would surprise me, but I think that a line like this from Hoff would be exactly that: a big surprise. Even WITH that line (which would be surprising, remember) he shouldn’t supplant DLee as the additional gold glove defense that Lee provides is superior the what Hoff would provide.

Now, I am not saying that he shouldn’t be on the roster. I think that he has earned a spot. However, the “let him play everyday so he can prove himself” argument is flawed. Who do you want him taking at bats away from? You can’t put him at shortstop!

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Mar 23, 2009 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure, if you ignore doubles, walks and defense.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Mar 23, 2009 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Then Micah better enjoy this year

It’s all downhill from here.

Here’s another “27-is-peak” study

"I knew we were in for a long season when we lined up for the national anthem on opening day and one of my players said, 'Every time I hear that song I have a bad game.'" - Jim Leyland

by flachimesa on Mar 22, 2009 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sotos rise was pretty unexpected

so cut him some slack

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Mar 22, 2009 6:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

More interest

Their are a lot of GMs and scouts who are a lot smarter than me, so my assumption is if he’s blocked by Lee and all he needs is more opportunities, someone should deal for him.

So far I haven’t heard of anyone showing interest.

But I do hope he proves everyone wrong. It takes some luck to win a World Series, and if he provides the pop we need, all the better.

by trefrog66 on Mar 22, 2009 6:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I had a witty reply ready

…but I am afraid someone will hold me to my opinion two years from now. ;-)

Holy cats.

by Dave in the basement on Mar 22, 2009 8:00 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

More Soto unfounded rumors

Of course we have the boobs that want to be big shots and they think it makes them big shots to hurl unfounded steroid accusations.

There is more reason to suspect the Hoff of steroids than Soto.

My friend had his heart transplant on 3/21. Thank you for your thoughts and prayers.

by cubstoseriesby100 on Mar 22, 2009 8:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

I never knew that Steroids made your eyes so great that you swing at less than 33% of out of zone pitches on EVERY side.

Oh wait… they don’t, than Soto must have natural skill.

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? - Jim Bouton

by Beaushek on Mar 23, 2009 2:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll be glad when the season starts...

cause Hoff… as much as I’d like to see him grow into a role will sputter and crash land right
back in AAA and these arguments about his potential can die a quiet death…

- Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
- Germans?
- Forget it, he's rolling.

by Endrick on Mar 22, 2009 10:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I like to tweak Al as much as the next person

( Two words Al: Rich Aurilla) but this is kind of silly. Hoff might be useful on the bench but he is a terrible fielder and unless you expect him to hit .330 with over 110 RBIs it is not worth considering him as everyday or breakout player.

"I daydream just like everybody else, I just do it with my body facing the field, so everybody thinks I'm paying attention."- Greg Maddux

by Doggie Stalker on Mar 22, 2009 10:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Dear Orval Overall...please bookmark this comment.

Theriot might become a decent backup, that’s all. — SWL, 3/22/2009

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Mar 22, 2009 11:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

“Milton Bradley won’t play more than 121 games in 2009.” —dtpollitt, 03/23/09

“I love Jimmy Johns #4.” —dtpollitt, 03/23/09

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 23, 2009 6:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

121 games for Bradley ?

From your mouth to God’s ears. I would be OK with that.

"I daydream just like everybody else, I just do it with my body facing the field, so everybody thinks I'm paying attention."- Greg Maddux

by Doggie Stalker on Mar 23, 2009 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shit, okay.

“Milton Bradley won’t play more than 99 games in 2009”. —dtpollitt, 03/23/09

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 23, 2009 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Still waiting for Theriot to achieve decent backup status.

Boom, roasted.

"Thank god I threw out my belt & shoelaces."-Bernies Mustache Wax on Evil BCB, 7/31/08

by Bildo1805 on Mar 23, 2009 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love how the comments used to be how Hoff has a superb batting average and can drive in RBI's

But now that his batting average against MINOR LEAGUE PITCHERS has dropped down to the 270’s, everyone is will point to one of two things. His RBI’s or how other random people succeeded when people thought they wouldn’t, so he will too.

Tell me… when all of the major league regulars finally get equal AB’s to Hoffpauir (it’s never pointed out that he leads spring training in AB’s as well), and then his RBI totals drop to average to below average. Will everyone finally just back off?

Also, Felix Pie & Corey Patterson… Look, two people that many people thought wouldn’t succeed, AND THEY DIDN’T. So now I’m winning the game 2 to 1, that means Hoff is the permanent bench player, right?

I’d rather hear about how we need Peavy then listen to every possible angle as to how Hoff is the future king of the world.

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? - Jim Bouton

by Beaushek on Mar 23, 2009 2:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

lots of people didn’t think Patterson and Pie would succeed. They were only the Cubs top prospects for the better part of a decade because people knew they were awful.

/sarcasm

The point is: Projecting prospects is a crap shoot and some are trying to make it seem like a fool-proof science. We’ve all got closets full of Topps Rated Rookie cards of guys that, now, no one has ever heard of. And there are many in the majors who make it with little fanfare. Some make it, some don’t. But don’t try to tell me that you can figure out one from the other. If you could do so reliably, you wouldn’t be blogging at BCB.

Hoff supporters aren’t saying he’s the future king of the world or even that he should supplant Lee regularly at 1B (I for one think that would be a terrible idea on about 12 levels). It’s simply that he might be a decent ballplayer based on his numbers at AAA, the small sample size at MLB and, yes, Spring Training and he might be able to contribute and help the 2009 Cubs in some capacity. If you disagree, fine (it’s true: he is a defensive liability and there’s really nowhere to play him). As one said earlier in this discussion, we’ve all got opinions. It’s those who attempt to pass off their opinions as fact that are bothersome (using everything shy of the zodiac to “prove” to anyone who disagrees that Hoff’s the next Hee Sop Choi.)

by Zonk on Mar 23, 2009 8:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Alright

I think we both agree on where Hoffpauir should end up. And I’m fine with you saying that BCB bloggers don’t really have the accuracy and track record for accurate projections, but then why can’t we look at the places that HAVE accurate projections and use those?

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? - Jim Bouton

by Beaushek on Mar 23, 2009 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

b/c that info won't support their opinion

"That's what you live for. You live for the opportunity and when that day comes, you better be ready," Soto said. "I tried to make sure that whenever they gave me a chance, I was ready and I knew I had to take advantage of the opportunity."

by Madison Cub Fan on Mar 23, 2009 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are already closing the book on Felix Pie, huh.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on Mar 23, 2009 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ugh

Worst …. Thread …. Ever

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Mar 23, 2009 9:26 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs

Hey this is fun!

“Neither…
… Theriot nor Fontenot is going to be a major league starter. Either one might be a decent utility player…To me, Fontenot’s too small to make it in the majors. He doesn’t have any power either.”

by Al on Jul 20, 2006 9:14 PM CDT

LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Good thing we have a MLB manager!!!

by Jerry Mumphrey on Mar 23, 2009 10:19 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Glad to be wrong about those two, especially Fontenot.

Now, tell me this: on July 20, 2006 would you have said anything different?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 23, 2009 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I liked Theriot for his cool name

and I liked Fontenot because I badly wanted the Sosa deal to come up roses for the Cubs. Both reasons that are unjustifiable for a real manager, but it worked out anyway. I also thought Todd Walker was money at the time.

by Jerry Mumphrey on Mar 23, 2009 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the point

is less about what predictions you would have made at the time, than it is about what lessons can be learned from similar predictions made on the basis of a similar lack of evidence. I’m not trying to tell you to get out of the prediction business (we all love both making and reading them), but perhaps you could stand to be a little more open minded when forming judgments about a player who has shown nothing but success at the plate.

The classic definition of a quad-A player (the comment you made about Hoff that touched off this thread) is a player who inexplicably lights it up in AAA, but struggles repeatedly when he gets to the show. Those judgments are usually made AFTER the guy has tried and failed to replicate his success at the MLB level. Usually, more than once. There are players who are regular league MVPs at AAA that come up and barely scratch .200 with the big club. Hoff, so far, isn’t one of them. His .362 average at AAA would only make him a quad-A guy if he came up here and hit .220. But he didn’t. He hit .340 during his time with the big club. So to me (and apparently I’m not alone) the comment “He’s a quadruple-A player, nothing more” sounds like its just made up.

So maybe the question should be, “Do you have a better factual basis for labeling Hoff a Quad-A player, than you had for labeling Soto, Theriot and Fontenot back-ups?” If not, I think I’ll take my chances and see how the kid actually plays when given an extended look.

by Orval Overall on Mar 23, 2009 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

He has done nothing to prove he warrants an "extended look"

The amount of at bats he had last season, on the major league level are a small sample size. You deride projection systems that have been proven to be accurate yet you claim to know nothing of them. If you are not familiar with a common projection system such as CHONE you may want to educate yourself before you claim it to be invalid.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 23, 2009 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually

I would say that he does warrant an “extended look.” However, the Cubs do not have the capability to give it to him. He is not better than any of the other players whose place he could even conceivably take with a stretch. You aren’t going to put him at 2B or SS. And he sure as heck can’t play CF! Those are the only positions where he would be an upgrade at the plate. The only thing left is PH and bat off the bench. He has earned that, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it given to him. But to claim that he should get an “extended look” begs the question, “At the cost of taking ABs and playing time away from WHO?”

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Mar 23, 2009 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

terrible defender as well

His defense makes him a poor choice to back-up in right or left, he hurts you less at first but not great there either. The thing many fail to recognize is that he has not shown he can pinch hit off the bench. He’s only had any success when he starts and gets 4 or 5 at bats in the game. Since he isn’t good enough to replace any starters then he really doesn’t help you that much off the bench.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 23, 2009 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure that you're wrong about Theriot . . . .

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 23, 2009 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK

I’ll grant you that he can hit. However, the problem for Micah is that he is with an NL club. We make them field too. At 1B, he is passable. Barely. If he hits. Well. In the outfield, Yikes!

No. DLee is not as good with the bat as he was 3-4 years ago. He is still a GOOD ML hitter, though. He hasn’t yet regressed to average. And his glove? Wow. He could be an average ML hitter and still be a better option at 1B than Hoff just because of the runs that he saves with his glove. Hoff could develop into a passable ML 1B. However, we already have a good one. I’d love to have him as a bat off of the bench, but to replace DLee with him would be foolish at this point.

"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray

by Archie on Mar 23, 2009 10:19 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs

Also

Also the Cubs have to think about the potential lawsuits from all the fans that sit behind 1st base with all the balls coming flying at them.

Ramirez and Theriot aren’t the world’s most accurate throwers although Aramis has improved and Lee saves runs and the lives of those that sit behind 1st every day. (I also think Theriot improved through last year if you look at him in April and in September and will continue to do so).

My friend had his heart transplant on 3/21. Thank you for your thoughts and prayers.

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"Soto might become a decent backup, that's all." -- Al, 5/1/2007

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