Gregg Cubs Closer
by Bleeding Cubbie Blue on Mar 29, 2009 2:42 PM CDT
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PrintOn rotoworld, Lou has named Gregg closer over Marmol a move they deem as bad since Marmol is the far more dominant pitcher.
I actually like the move. Gregg has been dominant this spring, has experience and can do the job.
I alsoe agree that Marmol is more dominant and I would be far more confident having him face a 2 on 2 out situation in the 7th or 8th inning since Gregg seems to walk more batters.
I think Gregg will be fine in the role
What do you guys think?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Well its posted down below, but it should be up here I think considering its such a key decision
#34: You'll be missed!
Didn't know...
…if I should have made it a fanpost cause I didn’t have more than a link
"Winning is the greatest marketing idea of all time." --Cubs President John McDonough
FWIW, you did the right thing.
This Fanpost was unnecessary, albeit inevitable.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
This is a big deal...
… I didn’t mind having two posts on this one.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Yeah, no biggie.
Ideally, the Fanposter would’ve gone into a little more detail – his thoughts above could’ve easily been comments in the Fanshot, but this is a major story.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
Didn't last year
It didn’t last year.
The thing is I think Marmol might make a better closer but the best combo might be him setting up and Gregg closing.
My friend had his heart transplant on 3/21. Thank you for your thoughts and prayers.
by puckishcubsfan on Mar 29, 2009 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions
If it does
he doesn’t have the mentality to be a closer anyway.
by Josh Timmers on Mar 29, 2009 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions
I think it was the right move
Gregg has the most experience closing and I think that’s why Cubs acquired him all along.
I might be in the minority but I think I’d get nervous with Marmol closing every game. When he’s dominant you know you’re going to get out of the inning unscathed but when Marmol is shaky well he’s not who I’d want to see in the 9th.
Kind of backward
logic don’t ya think? I mean, your suggesting that Marmol is not effective enough to close, but the setup role is by far the bigger pressure situation — particularly with runners on. I think his skillset and nasty slider make him the guy you want to strike batters out. Gregg on the other hand as closer can afford at times to give up a hit. With your reasoning I would think you would prefer Marmol closing, since if he is “shaky” he would be in a position to do the least amount of damage by giving up a hit.
"Ask Dad. He'll know. And on the off chance he doesn't, he'll make something up"
by StevenABQ on Mar 29, 2009 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I see your point
And you are right. Marmol has gotten us out of some sticky situations going for 5 outs at a time.
However from the days of Hawkins and even Dempster, the 9th inning for me is more nerve racking than a 7th or 8th (I guess my mentality is the team still has outs left to score runs).
Let’s see how everything plays out. Marmol probably will be more valuable as the set up guy.
Good point
You sure are right about the 9th inning being a nail biter. But then again, if we don’t have an effective setup guy we turn into last seasons Mets — without a chance at seeing the 9th inning.
"Ask Dad. He'll know. And on the off chance he doesn't, he'll make something up"
Not very surprising
As mentioned above, the experience factor obviously came into play.
Also, it’s not like they can’t make a change if Gregg turns out to not be up to the job.
You know, experiece may have been the reason...
But I wonder if the fact that the late-inning relief candidates looked so awful this spring may have lead to this. The Cubs seem to really want Marmol in that closer’s role, but his ability to go multiple innings may help offset the hot mess that is Vizcaino/Gaudin/Samardzija.
by Damen Jackson on Mar 29, 2009 3:40 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs
Agreed
I think Lou plans to use Marmol like he did last year for 4 or 5 outs if necessary. He’s much more valuable to the team in that role.
Yep, good point.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
I like the move
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
Good move
The Cubs need Marmol to get them out of late inning jams. If he’s the closer, he won’t be available so much.
"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti
by wrigleyrocker12 on Mar 29, 2009 3:46 PM CDT reply actions
Right Choice
I like this move, I think it is wise. I’m a little concerned about Marmol’s attitude in his public quotes so far though. It’s a little disappointing to hear.
He's young and immature
I bet we’ll get another interview tomorrow where he says he was emotional and wants to spend the rest of his life with Chicago.
I remember Cedeno did a similar thing in 2007 when he was sent down to the minors. When they called him back up he said “he loves the Cubs and wants to be with them forever”. Granted Cedeno isn’t with the Cubs and a demotion is different from not getting the closer role but you get my idea I hope.
He Said:
“They knew what they were going to do before I got here. That’s why I say there’s not competition.”
“I don’t know,” Marmol said. “I guess we’re going to get ready for the season, no matter what. You’ll see the same smile. I’ll be the same guy. I’ll throw my 80 innings, do my job. I can’t make their decision. I can’t control it.”
“I think it’s good for the team,” Marmol said. “I guess it’s good for the team.”
Those are from the Cubs.com story. He just has an air or indignation that I wish wasn’t expressed publicly. But yeah, hopefully he recovers from the decision quickly and has a good April.
Last time I checked
Isn’t Gregg having a better spring?
My friend had his heart transplant on 3/21. Thank you for your thoughts and prayers.
Using that logic
There could be a mass upheaval in starting lineups everywhere.
by jerry morales rules on Mar 29, 2009 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Last time I checked
Hoffpauir was having a better spring than almost anyone. Proves you wrong!
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
Though in a competition statistics matter
D Lee is an established All-Star and our first baseman. Hoffpauir was fighting for a PH/Bench position with Fox. There was never a competition btwn them.
Marmol has not been a closer (though he was decent I think when he filled in for Wood). Gregg has been a closer. Marmol has been wild this spring, Gregg has been great.
by Bleeding Cubbie Blue on Mar 29, 2009 6:52 PM CDT up reply actions
I dont' give one crap who the closer is...
but I do hope whoever it is gets a chance to at least save a game in the playoffs this year.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Mar 29, 2009 6:29 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
+1
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that.
We know it's the most valuable position on the football team. We've gone through so many scenarios at that position we can write a book, moreso on what not do."
-- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
.
This is the right choice.
Marmol’s a much better choice to be a 7th or 8th inning setup man, to come in with runners on and put out fires as he has done the last two years.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al Yellon on Mar 29, 2009 6:39 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
+ 100000000000 Al
Marmol is the guy I want in those 7th or 8th inning situations that are every bit as important as the closers role. Plus………in 07 a healthy Gregg was pretty damn good.
plus........
take away August last year and he was actually very good
Especially that one game vs. the Cubs and the game-winning HR by Ward.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I like this decision.
If the choice comes down to two apparently competent options for closer, I’d rather have the more talented pitcher coming in with runners on base and in higher-pressure situations, and Marmol last season showed that he’s that person. I think that Gregg can succeed in the closer position. Didn’t many of Gregg’s blown saves last year come as he was dealing with his leg injury?
Decision was made for Lou by performances
Carlos Marmol has not pitched well this spring while Kevin Gregg has been exceptional. Marmol had a shot to win the closer job outright and couldn’t get it done.
With the loss of Wood, barring a meltdown, Gregg was a lock for the job
I mean as much as I have loved seeing Marmol there, he’s just not quite got it together yet to go full steam as a closer. When Gregg was acquired, it clearly made sense that he had the nod due to his own record, skill set and the fact that Kerry very likely had made it clear he was expecting a fatter contract then the Cubs wanted to give him …
Well, Next Year is here .. and Jack's century's gotta end some time .. GO CUBBIES!
This isn't a good move
Closers as a whole see higher leverage situations than setup men. That being the case, your best releiver should be in the closer spot as he will have more of an impact on the outcomes of games than setup men. Marmol is a much better pitcher than Gregg going forward, thus he should be the closer.
vivaelbeñsheets
Yeabut...
you have to get to those higher leverage situations first. Obviously the leverage gets greater as you get closer to the end of a ballgame. However, anyone that uses their eyes at a game and not just the stat sheet can tell you that there are often situations in the 7th/8th innings that win or lose games. It’s not just the 9th. You need a strikeout pitcher for those times with two on or bases loaded in the 7th or 8th. Starting the 9th with the bases empty up one isn’t a mandatory strikeout situation.
I like the move as I think that Marmol’s skill set is more suited to the situations in the 7th/8th innings. For those low leverage situations that is is constantly put into.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
That's crap
The stats, unbiased and methodical, tell the story better you’re eyes. LI (Leverage Index) can actually tell you exactly how much any given situations impacts the outcome of the game. While setup men often come into difficult situations, closers impact the outcomes of the game more. It makes sense too. Pitching a scoreless inning in the 8th isn’t as important as pitching a scoreless inning in the 9th given that the run differential doesn’t change. Similarly, getting out of a jam (bases loaded, 1 out, needing a strikeout) just isn’t as important in the 8th as it is in the 9th.
Now if you want to have a “bullpen ace”, a guy who always pitches the highest expected leverage situations of the game (whether it be the 7th, 8th or 9th), than that makes a lot of sense. In fact that pitcher will probably see more high leverage situations than any other pitcher in the game. However, if the closer model is in place, which it obviously is for the Cubs, than you’re closer will have a bigger impact on the game than a setup men.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 30, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not so sure
that the point that you are making is even really a point.
Pitching a scoreless inning in the 8th isn’t as important as pitching a scoreless inning in the 9th given that the run differential doesn’t change.
That is my point exactly. Given that the run differential doesn’t change. The leverage index measures the situation in the game and weights pitching with a one run lead in the 9th as more critical than pitching with a one run lead in the 8th. Doesn’t matter that in the 8th Marmol might be facing Pujols with two on and two out, while in the 9th, Chris Duncan is up in the same situation. Although the leverage index will show these two situations as different with the 9th inning being higher leverage then the 8th, I would submit to you that the Cardinals actually have a better chance of scoring in this situation in the 8th inning due to the quality of the hitter that is up. Therefore, the leverage index is actually giving a false reading just due to the inning in the game.
I am a stat head. I love the numbers and I think that leverage index is a valuable tool. However, as with any stat, you have to use your head in situations. Lies, damn lies and statistics.
in the above example:
- - the 9th does not have the capability to be a high leverage situation if Marmol does not retire Pujols with two on and two out and a one run lead in the 8th.
- - Leverage index does not take into account the quality of the hitter that is at bat. The reading is the same whether it is Pujols batting or me. Though there is obviously a large difference in the projected outcome.
- - Leverage index does not adjust for what happens after that point in the game. If the Cubs retire the Cards 1,2,3 in the ninth after the above Pujols example, the leverage index is not going to assign a higher importance retroactively to what happened in the 8th, even though we all know that this was the turning point in the game. I know that it will show up as maybe the highest leverage in that game, but it will not be equal to the leverage index in a different game where the same situation happened in the 9th even though the two situations both decided games.
Again, I’m not saying that leverage index is not a valuable tool. Just remember, as with any stat, it is a tool, not a prescription. Some games are won or lost in innings before the 9th and that doesn’t make the situation any less important to the end record of the team.
This is why I like Marmol being able to be used in any situation in the game and not being limited to the ninth inning.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
So?
Obviously pitching to a situation (Pujols with runners on base) is the job for the best reliever, however that situation is just as likely to happen in the 9th as it is in the 8th. The only difference is that that situation in the 9th has a larger variance on the outcome of the game than the same situation in the 8th.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 30, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Too bad
We don’t have Goose Gossage, or Bruce Sutter, or Sparky Lyle. One of them could have pitched the 7th, 8th, and 9th every time out and we wouldn’t be having this debate. Heck, sometimes Franks brought Sutter in for the save in the 6th!
"Hey hey, kiss it goodbye! That one's in Milwaukee! Man oh man did he hit it. Isn't that something?" - Lou Boudreau, May 17, 1979
Well yeah
that would be the smart thing to do. Unfortunately, most managers use a set bullpen model in close games. Closer = 9th, setup men = 8th, setup man who isn’t quite as good as the other setup men = 7th, LOOGY = anytime but the 9th. In that alignment, the guy who only pitches the 9th is more valauble.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 30, 2009 8:22 PM CDT up reply actions
I'll give you that
but that is not the way that Lou uses Marmol. He doesn’t just pitch the 8th. Often times he is brought into difficult situations in the 7th or even 6th innings. Lou uses him as the fireman. My point is that these situations won’t show as high on the leverage index even though it might be the best chance of scoring that the other team has. The leverage index (understandably) is biased towards the later innings. My point is that you can’t measure the value of use of a pitcher solely by the leverage index.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Thanks
for making me take the time to think through and articulate what was bothering me about the LI. Before this it was just a nagging “something isn’t quite right about that…”
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
That's an interesting point...
…but it seems like there are a lot of different ways of approaching this dilemma. (And this is why the Cubs were so much better off with Woody, but I digress…) Gregg is an experienced closer – yeah, not the better pitcher, but qualified for the job. I’m pretty comfortable with Lou’s decision.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
Good link
although I’m not so sure if saving or holding ball games (easy or hard) is a repeatable skill. It may be that Gregg is simply good at worming his way out of jams and coming through when it matters most, however it has pretty much been proven that “clutch” is much more luck than skill (if not entirely).
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 30, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Proven?
Even the guy who calls himself “Tango” has backed away from that rather remarkable claim. James has said that the question is unanswered.
That's why I said "pretty much"
There has been shown to be an almost nonexistent correlation of consistent “clutch” hitting among players.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 30, 2009 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions
the best reliever
needs to be the setup IMO since he will come in to stop the flood and be used more than a closer will be. Without the stopper in the 7th and 8th it doesnt matter who is closing, since he will be in the pen watching his team bat in the bottom of the 9th.
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
Lou must be intent on wearing out Marmols arm again
He has what it takes to be a dominant closer, and remaining in the ninth would limit his innings.
I dont expect this current arrangement to last too long
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Not necessarily.
Heilman should be better than Howry, and Neal Cotts could be due for an uptick as well.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
plus if Spellcheck is ready from AAA soon
Marshall returns to the role I like him in best, the “Terry Mulholland” swingman role
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
You think Shark
could go to AAA, then come up and take Marshall’s rotation spot? I wouldn’t count on it.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Mar 30, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Precisely why I wanted Carlos Marmol to get the closer job
The following factors add up to Carlos Marmol once again having a very heavy workload.
1. Three starting pitchers not known for going past the 6th inning in Harden, Lilly and Marshall (who actually goes even less)
2. A dubious to say the least middle relief situation
Piniella is going to have little choice but to work Marmol very hard I’m afraid. Hence why I would have preferred for Marmol to be the closer where there would be natural insulation on how much he pitches. But Gregg clearly won the job in spring training, so there you go.
Your first point is exactly why we need Marmol in the 7th or 8th.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
You watch the Lou-bashers feast on this one
When Carlos Marmol is once again on track for 80 appearances you watch the Lou-bashers scream that he is destroying the pitcher. But I see Lou having little choice but to work Marmol very hard. Our bullpen really does kinda suck when you get past Marmol and Gregg. I’m not banking on Neal Cotts all of a sudden turning it around, or Aaron Heilman being anything more than the frustratingly erractic relief pitcher he was in New York.
I like it
And I think (hope?) that Lou will ease off on Marmol a little and not use him for 2 innings at a time very often. Heilman should be the 2 inning guy. It won’t always work out with pinch hitters and the switches that Lou always makes, but I’d like to see Marmol limited getting 3 or 4 outs each appearance. It would help if we knew the makeup of the rest of the pen. Gaudin and Shark can obviously pitch chunks in the middle, and I’d guess that Guzman and Patton should be decent 2 inning guys. Vizcaino, I haven’t seen him pitch in years, but he seems like a 3 or 4 out guy because he throws a lot of balls.
I like the move
This way, Marmol comes in to save pitchers in trouble, and can pitch a couple innings sometimes. Gregg has proven he can do this role, and Marmol his. Plays to their strengths, I think.
Two things
1. Marmol may be the best weapon out of the pen, and making him a closer stops him from being that damn good when needed (outside the 9th).
2. I know this is a different situation, but it has common points, Hester was best return man in NFL, and was made into an average receiver (i.e. if it aint broke don’t fix it). Leave Marmol where he has been successful, and let Gregg take it 45-50 times in save situation instead of taking the ball from Marmol 15-30 times by moving him from setup / holds specialist and making him a closer.
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
check 123 check check
check check
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
mobile posting?
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
Nah, I was having trouble getting my posts to show up on another thread.
So I did a mic check.
"That little kid at second base - he is after a job, isn't he?" ~ Lou Piniella, 3/9/09
I like it
The middle relief corps just aren’t solid w/o Marmol. Gregg is better suited to close than set up. Marmol is the premiere set up guy.
Like Lou mentioned last year a few times, “some times games need to be saved in the 6th or 7th inning”.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
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