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According to the Fielding Bible (per Sabernomics).

Here's the list of leaders in runs saved by position:

Pos. Player Runs Saved
1B Albert Pujols 61
2B Chase Utley 63
3B Pedro Feliz 50
SS Adam Everett 48
LF Alfonso Soriano 42
CF Carlos Beltran 44
RF Alex Rios 49
C Jason Kendall 27
P Kenny Rogers 27

8 months ago Mr_know-it-all_tiny Wreckard 268 comments 4 recs  | 

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Comments

Display:

I'm no Sabermatian

but huh? Really?

"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion

by DTJchris on Mar 4, 2009 11:21 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

THT had Soriano has the best LF “arm”, but I’m sure as shit he ain’t the best LF defensive player. He’s not nearly as bad as he is made out to be—his UZR/150 in LF is 11.9. It looks like this analysis is runs saved/allowed, which is jsut like THT’s.

Here is THT’s article.

Dan

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 4, 2009 11:32 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Totally agree with......

your assessment

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on Mar 4, 2009 11:38 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, I'm no sabermagician either...

…but this news and that blog post brought to mind a very simple question: What is the purpose of a defensive player?

If the answer to that question is: To save (i.e., prevent) runs then, yes, it appears Alfonso Soriano is the best leftfielder in baseball. Even if he occasionally makes spectacular mistakes and even if his incessant hopping makes our collective skin crawl.

My sig line is out for jury duty.

by dat cubfan daver on Mar 4, 2009 11:48 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

good point

When you look at it that way.

www.talkingchicagobaseball.blogspot.com

by nji232 on Mar 4, 2009 11:55 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It does actually make sense

"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion

by DTJchris on Mar 4, 2009 12:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So, the bottom line is...

… Soriano, by one metric, is statistically the best LF. However, there are other things he does out there that… well, they just drive us nuts.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 4, 2009 12:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Right, but my question is...

…does it matter that he drives us nuts if he’s saving the Cubs runs in droves?

My sig line is out for jury duty.

by dat cubfan daver on Mar 4, 2009 12:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

How many is he allowing, though

Over the average LF?

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 4, 2009 12:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hm, not sure.

I guess that would be a key point, wouldn’t it?

My sig line is out for jury duty.

by dat cubfan daver on Mar 4, 2009 12:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I must admit, I'm not as statistically savvy as I should be

Especially defensive stats. I’d have to guess that his range is lacking because of bad reads and a seeming refusal to get close to a wall, but — I can’t quantify it.

Strat-O-Matic rates him a “3” (1 being the best, 5 the worst), but that’s certainly not the be-all end-all.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 4, 2009 12:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Here is how plus / minus is calculated
For each year, Dewan finds the probability of fielding a ball based on where it went (distance, direction), the batted ball type (fly ball, line drive, etc.), and whether the ball was hit hard, medium, or soft. So if on a hard ground ball to Vector 17, the shortstop only has a 10% chance of making a play, and he does, then he is credit with 1 -.1 = .9 plays above average. If he does not make the play, he is credited with 0 – .1 = -.1 plays above average. Dewan runs this analysis on every ball put into play in each of the past three seasons, and adds up the results for every player in the major leagues. The resulting rating is the player’s plus/minus.

From here.

by Wreckard on Mar 4, 2009 12:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Cool -- thanks!

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 4, 2009 12:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What is

his “E” rating? Also what is his – throwing. Just curious.

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Mar 5, 2009 2:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll get back to you on that

He’s not on my team

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 5, 2009 9:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I was wrong -- he's a 4e8, with a -2 arm

And, since you knew what I was talking about, you’ll know that only the worst of the worst are 5’s.

A -2 arm is good, but there are -3’s and -4’s. I think Iciro is often -5.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 6, 2009 12:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

*Ichiro

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 6, 2009 12:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I bought

my first set of SOM in ’69. Have been playing ever since. I currently use the cd rom, but honestly, I miss the table top.

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Mar 6, 2009 6:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

so we are just picking the fly sh*t out of the pepper

when we complain about his defensive miscues

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 4, 2009 1:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

and ignoring an unbiased analysis

Cubs fans in general seem to find Soriano a defensive liability no doubt in part to people like Bob Brenly making insulting and demeaning remarks about Sori’s defense. John Dewan has put aside the bias and demonstrated that Soriano is in fact the best defensive left fielder in baseball. I guess there isn’t much chance a dart is going to hit one that’s better in the Cubs’ dugout after all. The fact of the matter is Soriano makes plays that other left fielders simply can not.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 4, 2009 2:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't need Bob Brenly to tell me that Soriano's range isn't that great

or that he drops fly balls that other left fielders simply do not.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 4, 2009 2:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Right.

Now, the rating is clearly because of his large assist count. His range and glovework are not that great, and I don’t think there’s any observer OR metric that would disagree with that.

Small sample size, but dropping that fly ball in Pittsburgh that cost the Cubs a game last year can’t have helped his numbers OR the perception that he occasionally makes really, really bad plays.

Flame away.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 4, 2009 3:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The misplays in St. Louis didn't help, either

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 4, 2009 3:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

again this number demonstrates lack of bias

Every player makes errors or miscues and this system takes that into account. He obviously makes far more plays than he doesn’t. Is it even a question that this number demonstrates the fact that Soriano has been unfairly painted as a poor defender? Not only is he not a poor defender but his defense helps his team wins game. Since you can mention a play he messed up should I list every play in which he made an assist? No, because I’m judging his defense in totality not by isolated incidents.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 4, 2009 3:43 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Strong arm but inept.
His range and glovework are not that great, and I don’t think there’s any observer OR metric that would disagree with that.

Last year poster “cwyers” (while he did NOT directly refer to RANGE) said that Soriano was an “above average” left fielder and specifically pointed to his “Getting to the ball” as one point of proof. Wouldn’t “getting to the ball” be a claim of range?

If it is the 9th inning, there are runners on base and the Cubs need one out to win the game, Soriano is that last guy on the Cubs defense that I want the ball hit to. I understand that may be the case for a lot of teams, but the man scares me in left. – MPH73, April 5, 2008

I agree with you MPH73.

by DrCrawdad on Mar 5, 2009 10:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Is saving your team runs important?

4 times last year Soriano threw out runners trying to advance from third on fly balls to left. According to the Hardball Times he has been the best throwing left fielder for the last three seasons.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/best-outfield-arms-of-2008/

If it is the ninth inning and there is one or less outs with a runner on third, I sure hope that a fly ball is hit to left.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 5, 2009 10:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You're assuming he catches it...

… and that’s what’s really in the air with Soriano.

Soriano has a great arm and if he has terrific range then why don’t the Cubbies play him in right field?

This is not me bashing Soriano because he’s a Cubs player. It’s my honest assessment of him as a fielder. Great arm but he either lacks the natural aptitude for the field or lacks the desire to improve (or perhaps some combination thereof). I’d bet that he knows he’s paid to produce with the bat and has let his defense lag behind with little attention paid to it.

by DrCrawdad on Mar 5, 2009 11:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He did not come up as an outfielder which is probably part of why he is in left.

I am going to assume he catches it because he has demonstrated he can catch it and then throw people out. Your “honest” assessment lacks unbiased observation unlike that of Dewan or the Hardball Times piece I sited. Perhaps you have something other than your honesty to offer.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 5, 2009 11:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And repeatedly demonstrated...

… that he’s likely to misplay balls. And OF is a great place for that too because they rarely get penalized with errors on misplays. It’s not isolated instances with him either, it’s fairly routine.

I did not get to examine it but I believe that even in the first game in Vegas he misplayed a ball that hit very high off the wall and then sailed past him. It looked to me that he had no chance to catch it and should have recognized that. Instead he was standing near the wall when it hit 15 feet over his head. That’s just one example but I’ve only watched one Cub game this year. Stay tuned, there will be many more!

How good of an outfielder is Soriano if he gets replaced defensively or should be?

by DrCrawdad on Mar 5, 2009 11:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

"fairly routine"

That sounds like a generalization that someone uses when they don’t have actual facts to back up their point. If I were a Sox fan and had to watch guys like Jermaine Dye field I wouldn’t be worried about Soriano.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 6, 2009 12:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Lost any credibility ...

… with that remark.

If you really believe that, let me ask you if you had Soriano and Dye on the same team, whom would play LF and whom RF?

by DrCrawdad on Mar 6, 2009 6:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Depends which team they're on.

If they’re on the Cubs, I’d keep them in their regular positions, because there’s no sense messing around with a player’s routine or comfort zone, much less possibly misusing them defensively.

But if they’re on the Sox, then I really want to know who we got for Soriano. :)

"I've got an idea...an idea so smart my head would explode if I even began to know what I was talking about." ~Peter Griffin

by Goodie1969 on Mar 6, 2009 7:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Good one!

But “Taco Pie” lost credibility by dissing Dye while promoting Soriano as something he’s not, a good outfielder.

by DrCrawdad on Mar 6, 2009 7:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

In regard to the discussion at hand

The proper question is who is the better defender? Answer: Soriano. Dye’s defense is atrocious at this point in his career.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 6, 2009 7:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Speaking of limited observations...
Dye’s defense is atrocious at this point in his career.

Based on, your limited observations?

If Soriano is such a great outfielder it’s a wonder why he’s never been put in RF in his career.

by DrCrawdad on Mar 6, 2009 7:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Nope not my limited observation

Check Dye’s defensive metrics, they are horrible. Are you arguing that he’s a good defender?

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 6, 2009 7:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Glove work

Dye is two years older than Soriano and surely Dye has slowed. Actually I’d prefer Dye in LF and Carlos Quentin in RF.

I’d argue that Dye is a better outfielder than Soriano, without any hesitation.

Dye: 1 Gold Glove
Soriano: 1 Lead Glove

by DrCrawdad on Mar 6, 2009 7:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

To Dye for

I wonder how many Cubbie fans would argue that Soriano is a better outfielder than Dye?

I can’t imagine many baseball observers nor John Dewaun (sp?) would pick Soriano based on defense over Dye.

by DrCrawdad on Mar 6, 2009 7:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Marcels

Dye, 2008 UZR= -18.2, arm -3.9. Soriano,2008 UZR= 2.4, arm 4.7

So, you may not be able to imagine it but defensively Soriano is significantly better than Dye. I am not the only one with that observation. BTW, I knew Dye was bad before I looked at the numbers.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=847&position=2B/OF#fielding

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=911&position=OF#fielding

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 6, 2009 8:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't understand ...

… why if Soriano has such a great arm he’s never played a single game in RF?

Jacque Jones had an arm that only worms feared. So why did the Cubbies choose to put the strapping Jacque Jones in RF instead of Soriano?

The answer is clear to anyone who can look at the matter with unbiased eyes, it’s because Soriano is a poor outfielder. Strong arm but inept in the field.

by DrCrawdad on Mar 6, 2009 8:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Questions that expose...

… you dodge on the RF questions, because you know the answers betray you.

by DrCrawdad on Mar 6, 2009 8:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't argue right field question as it is moot

Playing left does not make Soriano a worse fielder. Jones had played right previously in his career and Soriano had not, thus the positioning. Just because Soriano hasn’t played right doesn’t mean he can’t.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 6, 2009 8:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If wonder about your honesty...

… cause an honest, candid person knows the reason Soriano plays LF, it’s because he’s at best an average fielder.

Jacque Jones probably had more time in LF when the Cubbies signed him. Yet the Cubbies kept Jones in RF when Soriano came along. Cubbie fans HATED Jones, but I don’t know of any that argued Jones and Soriano should switch positions.

And good dodge on the LF/RF debate. You put your weakest outfielder in LF. Hence that’s where Soriano is planted. And that’s why you dodged those questions.

I’m not sure if you’re dishonest, lack candor or if you’re Soriano’s publicist. But you don’t have all that much company in your views of Soriano even here at BCB.

Be sure to be around throughout the season when Soriano’s chasing balls around LF like a Little Leaguer.

by DrCrawdad on Mar 6, 2009 8:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You are way off the reservation now

Is Carl Crawford a terrible fielder? I remember Barry Bonds being a pretty good fielder in left during his career. Obviously, Soriano is not the best defender on the field and I never said anything to that regard. Do I believe he could play right? Absolutely. Is he a better defender than Dye? No question.
 The whole point of this post was that Soriano is not the terrible defender in left that many believe him to be. He is an above average defender in left. You many disagree with me but that does not make me dishonest, just correct.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 6, 2009 8:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Not terrible, the word is inept.

And that’s correct.

In 2007, who was a better outfielder, Jacque Jones or Soriano?

by DrCrawdad on Mar 6, 2009 9:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Jones or Soriano is not the argument

The discussion was about Soriano’s defense in left. Why do you keep changing the argument? Soriano is an above average defender in left field.
To play along with your little game, given the choice between putting Soriano in right or Jacque Jones, I would put Jones on the bench. I wouldn’t even think twice. Soriano has a far superior arm. Your argument seems to be that Soriano is a bad outfielder because he doesn’t play right. Someone has to play left and that doesn’t make them a bad fielder.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 6, 2009 9:07 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Please answer a simple question...

…In 2007, who was a better outfielder, Jacque Jones or Soriano?

by DrCrawdad on Mar 6, 2009 9:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Again, S-o-r-i-a-n-o

That is my choice because as I stated before he has a far superior arm.

Marcels 2007:
Jones: UZR 7, Arm 1.2, 8 assists
Sori: UZR 18.5, Arm 14.3, 19 assists

Obviously, there isn’t any evidence I can present that will convince you that I believe what I do.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 6, 2009 9:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Then a pox on the Cubbies...

… for putting their better fielder in LF instead of RF.

Again, I hope to see you around here when Soriano is chasing balls around LF like a lost Little Leaguer.

And at that I bid you adieu.

by DrCrawdad on Mar 6, 2009 9:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, it is "fairly routine"...

… with Soriano in the outfield because he routinely plays poorly.

Soriano, strong arm but inept in the field. I stand by that.

by DrCrawdad on Mar 6, 2009 6:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You can't separate his arm from his fielding

Do you have anything other than your opinion which is based on limited observation? If not, then our discussion is over.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 6, 2009 7:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Opinions?

Hey Zeus! Why come on a discussion board and post opinions!

by DrCrawdad on Mar 6, 2009 7:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ovah

Just as I thought, you don’t have anything to back up your opinion. This discussion is ovah!

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 6, 2009 7:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i was there

and that was the worst i’ve ever felt in my life……to have freaking Pirates fans making fun of me and my buddies. Sori missed a ball that ended up being a homerun that day too, because he didn’t put his glove up over the 6-foot left field wall.

Embrace the Goat and It Shall Be Undone

by hawkster34 on Mar 9, 2009 8:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

So you agreed with Bob?

Or are you just attempting to disagree with me? Not sure what your point is Shanghai.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 4, 2009 4:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

"Attempting" to disagree?

I think Soriano is a below average fielder, and felt that way before Brenly made his comments.

As ol Pete suggested, how do you know the analysis is unbiased? Have you given it a thorough review? I haven’t. He’ll likely remember this game, too — he liked the outcome, I didn’t.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 5, 2009 11:52 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

bias

If you would like to educate yourself about Mr. Dewan and his system the information is available. Dewan has worked with Bill James for years and has a great reputation. There is no reason to believe that he has some sort of agenda to make Soriano look good. That’s just silly. Dewan’s defensive metrics are considered to be some of the most thorough and I’ve yet to see them challenged as being inaccurate.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 5, 2009 2:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

But it disagrees with our preconceptions about Soriano as a player

Clearly that means there’s something wrong with the system.

by Wreckard on Mar 5, 2009 4:31 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

clearly

Thanks for point that out.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 5, 2009 5:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow, this has really taken a turn to arrogance

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 5, 2009 9:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Arrogance?

Is name calling necessary?

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 5, 2009 10:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Show me where there is name calling

Perhaps arrogance was the wrong term, but the discussion got a bit snarky as people continued to point out possible flaws in the thinking.

Pointing that out isn’t name calling.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 6, 2009 6:15 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Unintended

I apologize for any offense.

However, the discussion did seem to get a bit snarky.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 6, 2009 2:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

apology accepted

I was probably using a mocking tone so I apologize if that came across as arrogant.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 6, 2009 4:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Group hug?

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 6, 2009 4:06 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What if I bring Erin Andrews?

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 7, 2009 12:59 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Dewan’s “system” is not available. People don’t have to have an agenda in order to have multiple biases and there is such a thing as systemic biases.

His accuracy is an unknown. How is it you imagine that people would challenge his accuracy? How about somebody provides a measure that supports the notion that his system is accurate?

by ol Pete on Mar 5, 2009 5:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

How about you come up with an actual criticism of the system

Instead of just a bunch of hand-waving?

His system and methodology is well documented and well-supported. It’s not our responsibility to prove it to you.

by Wreckard on Mar 5, 2009 10:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

actual criticisms

System in not available, accuracy is unknown, no measure has been provided to support the notion that it is accurate.

by ol Pete on Mar 6, 2009 11:05 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

There is no way of knowing if the analysis is unbiased, either as I read you – personal biases, or systemic biases. Putting aside throwing, what sort of plays does Soriano make that other LFers can’t?

by ol Pete on Mar 5, 2009 11:17 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 5, 2009 11:49 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

arm strength and speed

His speed allows him to get to balls others don’t and he makes throws others can’t.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 5, 2009 2:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

To find out what you are talking about.

by ol Pete on Mar 5, 2009 5:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/best-outfield-arms-of-2008/

Please de-bunk and enlighten us as to the flaws of the analysis.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 5, 2009 11:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You made statements about Sori’s defensive abilities. I wondered what you were talking about other than his throwing ability. So far range has been mentioned although I don’t buy it. Providing a url to his throwing ability doesn’t answer what you are talking about outside of his throwing ability.

by ol Pete on Mar 6, 2009 11:07 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Doesn't a player actually have to get to the ball before he can throw it?

If I am going to look at a player’s defensive ability I will not negate his ability to throw out runners.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 6, 2009 12:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I have never at any point made a comment that says anyone at anytime should negate his ability to throw out runners.

by ol Pete on Mar 6, 2009 12:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Brenly insulting and demeaning?

I don’t hear every broadcast—but to me—Brenly could be a lot more terse than he is now—not just about Sori—but in general.

"Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest you also be like to him."
Solomon

by cubfever7 on Mar 11, 2009 7:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Isn't

being the best leftfielder sort of like being the cutest of the ugly kids?

"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb

by TheRiot Police on Mar 4, 2009 12:25 PM CST reply actions   1 recs

Well, kinda, yeah.

I don’t believe it’s considered one of the more prestigious defensive positions on the field. But I’d rather have a guy saving 42 runs out there than 24.

My sig line is out for jury duty.

by dat cubfan daver on Mar 4, 2009 12:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

True Enough

As long as the extra runs he is saving leads to victory.

In my small mind, saving a run in a loss is pretty worthless. The only 2 caveats I will give are:

1)If the saved run kept the game within a run or 2, where the 9th inning was more of a pressure cooker for the other team’s pitcher or

2)If the saved run in the loss led to the 3rd base coach being more tentative in sending a runner in the next game and thereby Alf’s defensive prowess saved a run/preserved a victory in the “next” game without even making a throw.

"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb

by TheRiot Police on Mar 4, 2009 12:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well.....

While I’m not a fan of Sori in the field, I have to disagree with this. An individual player can only do so much. If he goes 5-for-5 with 3 homers and two doubles, but the team loses, the offense he is creating isn’t leading to a victory. Seems to be two sides of the same coin.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 4, 2009 12:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What
In my small mind, saving a run in a loss is pretty worthless.

Why are defensive stats any different than offensive stats? How is a run saved any different than a run scored?

Are you advocating that offensive stats are worthless too if your team loses?

by Wreckard on Mar 4, 2009 12:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Is there an echo in here?

:)

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 4, 2009 12:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I guess so...

However, I am sure that I am in the minority in this regard.

"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb

by TheRiot Police on Mar 4, 2009 1:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What does not make sense...

"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb

by TheRiot Police on Mar 4, 2009 1:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You guess what

That offensive stats are worthless if your team loses?

by Wreckard on Mar 4, 2009 1:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Let me clarify my position a little

Certainly, the stats are good for determining the best possible team to put out on the field any given day and for determining in game strategies. However, putting a single game in a vacum, why do I care if a player makes a great play or gets a great hit if the team still loses. I can certainly argue that he did not contribute to the loss but the team still lost. I don’t get to go the playoffs because my players have great stats.

So no…stats are not worthless.

"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb

by TheRiot Police on Mar 4, 2009 1:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

...
I don’t get to go the playoffs because my players have great stats.

Oh dear.

by Wreckard on Mar 4, 2009 1:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Okay so instead of being an A$$

why don’t you educate me on your point of view

"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb

by TheRiot Police on Mar 4, 2009 1:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Great stats usually come as a result of being good at baseball. Being good at baseball means more wins.

Let me put it another way: every statistic is a measure of a particular success or failure on the ballfield. Saying that those successes or failures on the ballfield didn’t have anything to do with winning or losing is just beyond comprehension.

by Wreckard on Mar 4, 2009 1:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And I clarified my position

that they are not worthless…

"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb

by TheRiot Police on Mar 4, 2009 1:53 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

the tallest midget?

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 4, 2009 1:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Aw come on.

And you were being so good.

My sig line is out for jury duty.

by dat cubfan daver on Mar 5, 2009 2:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't come here much

and he set me up perfectly

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 8, 2009 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't get something

If 1B is the least important position in terms of defense how can a 1st baseman lead basically everybody in runs saved?

by Luis on Mar 4, 2009 12:36 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

That's a good question, too.

The only response that comes to mind is, “Because he’s Albert Pujols and he can do anything.”

My sig line is out for jury duty.

by dat cubfan daver on Mar 4, 2009 12:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Do you have anything Albert Pujols in a can?

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 4, 2009 12:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wihtout reading the article

I’d guess it was saving errors by digging out throws.

It’s “least important” because throws should be routine most of the time, and range isn’t needed as much there.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 4, 2009 12:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't buy that explanation

Either our concept of 1B being the least important defensive position is wrong, or this stat really is not about “runs saved”. If a 1B really can save more runs than anybody by digging out throws then that is the most important position. After all, the ultimate outcome in baseball is runs scored and runs allowed.

by Luis on Mar 4, 2009 12:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Not necessarily

Wreckard’s point below — opportunities — is one reason.

Another is, in theory, he could just be that good — essentially, Daver’s point above, even though that was in jest.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 4, 2009 1:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Opportunities

No player on the field has more defensive opportunities on balls in play than a first baseman.

by Wreckard on Mar 4, 2009 12:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Again

If a first baseman can determine the outcome of more runs for the oposition (by “saving runs”) then why is it considered the least important position? For example, if SS was the most demanding position “per opportunity” but only 1% of the balls were hit there then really no one would care much about the defense ability of the guy playing there.

by Luis on Mar 4, 2009 1:07 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The 1B has more opportunities because he's involved in the most defensive plays.

If a batter hits a grounder to SS, the SS fields and throws it to 1B. He’s in on more plays than anyone else. SS, or C is probably the hardest fielding position. 1B has to catch throws from other defenders (of course he fields some too), while other defenders field batted balls, which are more difficult.

by philadelphiacub on Mar 4, 2009 1:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but...............

If a 1B can save more runs than anybody else (even if it’s because he is involved in more plays) then to me the defense there is the most important of all. Wether or not you need more athletic ability or whatnot, is really irrelevant.

by Luis on Mar 4, 2009 1:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

look at Wreckards first line below:

it takes the least amount of athletic skill to play the position. Any of the other 9 players listed on the above study could play an adequate 1B. Albert Pujols, while amazing, could not play SS of CF or C very effectively. I think I understand what you’re saying about importance- it is important to have good defense at 1B, but more people are qualified to provide that than any other position.

by philadelphiacub on Mar 4, 2009 1:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, what you're saying is

That basically most first baseman save the same amount of runs, since it takes little ability?

If basically the majority of 1st baseman save the same amount of runs then the stat is meaningless, at least for that position. If, on the other hand, the difference between runs saved for first baseman is large then the defense at first should be a priority since you can reduce the number of runs you give up by the largest amount of any position.

Again, I think there is something fishy about this stat.

by Luis on Mar 4, 2009 1:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Again, I think there is something fishy about this stat.

Based on what, your speculation as to one player’s value, taken in a vacuum?

Have you looked at the full list, to see what the range of values is?

You’re taking one single data point, which may be an outlier, and condemning the entire system for it.

by Wreckard on Mar 4, 2009 1:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm actualling saying two things

Either

First base defense is more important than traditionally thought

OR

The stat is fishy.

by Luis on Mar 4, 2009 2:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And you are saying those things based on

one single point of data.

If you’re interested in what people who created the system have to say about the limitations of the system’s ability to measure first basement, there’s an article here.

Here are two other things that you are not taking into account:

1) The stats I posted are 3-year totals. Pujols single-season average over that time would be about +20.
2) Say you have a poor defensive first baseman, say Ryan Howard, at -5, vs Doug Mientkiewicz at, let’s say, +15. It’s pretty obvious that offensively Howard is worth much, much more than 20 runs more than Mientkiewicz. So you aren’t considering marginal value effectively here.

by Wreckard on Mar 4, 2009 2:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well

You can say pretty much the same thing about any position, although I will give you that the difference in offense between 1st baseman is perhaps greater than with other positions (that’s my assumption anyway).

by Luis on Mar 4, 2009 2:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The marginal loss in defense would be greater at other positions

A +15 first baseman would not be a +15 center fielder.

Howard may be a 5 first baseman (i have no idea what his +/ actually is, I’m just throwing numbers out there for illustration) but he would be a much, much, much worse center fielder.

This is where it goes back to athletic ability, like myself and others were saying earlier.

by Wreckard on Mar 4, 2009 2:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Man I hate that strikethrough bug

That’s supposed to say: Howard may be a -5 first baseman
(I have no idea what his + / – actually is)

by Wreckard on Mar 4, 2009 2:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He is actually around average by UZR

despite his 19 errors

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 9, 2009 11:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

"That basically most first baseman save the same amount of runs, since it takes little ability?"

No that’s not what I’m saying. They save the most amount of runs because they get the most opportunities. No where did I say that it takes little ability, I sure as hell couldn’t do it. Lots of pro players do have the skills necessary, and many of them have additional abilities that would be wasted if they played 1B.

by philadelphiacub on Mar 4, 2009 2:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Understood

My point is still the same though, that the most important defensive position should be the one where you can affect the outcomes of games the most.

by Luis on Mar 4, 2009 2:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I...

Could stand on first and catch balls thrown to me all season, which would give me a lot of opportunities, but that wouldn’t make me valuable to a major league team would it? Its important, yes, but anyone can do it.

It is also very important that the foul lines are chalked before every game, but I wouldn’t say that the person who does it is extremely valuable.

by Tate491 on Mar 4, 2009 2:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Keith Hernandez

I always thought he saved a lot of runs with the Mets and Cardinals because he could scoop the ball out of the dirt with the best of them. In addition, he could throw well as a first baseman. He was an athletic guy who could play him some first base.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Mar 4, 2009 2:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It's not the least important

However, it takes the least amount of athletic skill to play successfully.

Frankly, though, these new statistics are making teams reconsider the traditional wisdom about defensive value. There’s a reason guys like Dunn and Abreu fell through the cracks this year – clubs are starting to realize just how many runs defense can influence.

I wouldn’t be surprised if you see an increased valuation of defensive first baseman in the years to come.

That said, you can’t look at a sample size of one and draw conclusions, like you’re doing here. There’s a certain element of Pujols being awesome going on here. Texeira, by contrast, is considered a good defensive first baseman and was only +21 last year.

by Wreckard on Mar 4, 2009 1:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd say the economy has a good shot at being the big factor

in prices for the players you mention. I’d say the notion that “clubs” are realizing the value of defense is pretty far-fetched.

by ol Pete on Mar 5, 2009 11:25 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

D+ In LF

Okay, he’s not an absolutely lousy LF because of that arm. I think he’s better than Adam Dunn. Sori doesn’t deserve an “F”. I’d give him a “D+” because he gets awful jumps on balls and takes bad routes in the outfield. I think he has the potential to be a “C” rate LF, if he can learn to react better to balls coming off the bat.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Mar 4, 2009 1:22 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

you're measuring with your eyes

Fielding metrics measure distances, plays made, the way balls are hit and to where. You might see Soriano make a “bad jump/poor route”, but it doesn’t matter if he makes a bad jump- he has the speed to cover up for the “bad jump/poor route”, cover the ground necessary, and field the ball. At least that’s what these results seem to be saying. Making bad jumps/taking poor route’s doesn’t make one a bad fielder. It just looks that way if you only measure with your eyesight. Same thing on a great, diving catch. Say Reid Johnson makes a diving catch- it looks great. But if Felix Pie is in CF, the same ball is hit, he get’s there and makes the catch look routine. Happens in the infield too.

by philadelphiacub on Mar 4, 2009 1:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Soriano's Speed

His speed is what makes him a better LF than Adam Dunn. Dunn is so slow he has trouble catching balls even if he happens to get a good jump. Sori can cover up some of those mistakes with his speed, but Sori isn’t as fast as he used to be. Judging with my eyes, there are too many balls that he doesn’t catch because of those bad reads. He doesn’t get charged with errors on those plays, but Sori’s a minus LF.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Mar 4, 2009 1:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

"Sori’s a minus LF"

based on what? Staring in the face of facts that just stated he saved more runs than any other LF in the game and continuing to insist he’s a minus is not really having a discussion.

by philadelphiacub on Mar 4, 2009 1:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I’m not sure where defensive metrics measure distance, but the other things you mention are guys looking at video tapes and measuring with their eyes. Beyond the accumulation of raw data, the conceptual basis of rigid zones, ignoring player positioning and inability to measure interactions of players as well as other factors call into question the value of the measurements.

by ol Pete on Mar 5, 2009 11:31 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And yet he saved more runs...

…than any other leftfielder in the National League (?) between 2006 and 2008. These are things that make me go hmmm….

My sig line is out for jury duty.

by dat cubfan daver on Mar 4, 2009 1:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Right

These are the things that should make you second-guess your personal assumptions and judgments, not simply restate them without any reflection.

by Wreckard on Mar 4, 2009 1:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Does this mean Soriano should be a Gold Glove OFer this year?

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 4, 2009 1:44 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Doubt it.

Best fielding is all around with range and throwing arm. The Rawlings people would be too embarassed to give a gold glove to a guy that takes those routes to the ball, hops to catch, and misses so damn many.

All said, he’s not that bad a player for LF. Glad I don’t have to pay the contract.

by N Oakley on Mar 4, 2009 2:06 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

They certainly were okay

with giving one to Palmerio when he played hardly any games at 1st. Isn’t the gold glove voted on by the players/coaches?

"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb

by TheRiot Police on Mar 4, 2009 2:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Dang, beat me to it.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 4, 2009 2:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry about that...

I think the saber dudes would probably agree that the Gold Glove award does not reflect defensive stats per say and is also incorretly influenced by offensive stats

"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb

by TheRiot Police on Mar 4, 2009 2:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep

Abreu won it two or three years ago, too.

For all the talk of managers and coaches being “experts” . . . .

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 4, 2009 2:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Gold Gloves Also Influenced By

who has won in past seasons. Greg Maddux was great at fielding his position, but I believe a couple of those Gold Gloves in the latter part of his career were undeserved.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Mar 4, 2009 2:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Too embarrassed?

They gave it to Palmeiro when he played about 7 games at 1B

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Mar 4, 2009 2:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I guess i should have mentioned that i was being sacrastic

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 4, 2009 3:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Exhibit A for why most sabermagicians are clueless

Alfonso Soriano is not a good outfielder. Anybody who has logged 2 weeks of little league training or is similarly nuanced on the game of baseball understands that.

This is sabermagician razzmatazz run amuk.

by BLou on Mar 4, 2009 7:36 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I'm speechless.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Mar 4, 2009 7:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

"little league training"

Would little league training be similarly nuanced to potty training? Ignorance is bliss.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 4, 2009 9:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't argue with lunacy

It seems just because Alfonso Soriano has a supposed “big arm” that he gets all sorts of praise in the sabermagician world. Have you seen his range in left field? Or the angles he takes to balls? Or the routine" plays he absolutely butchers per season, ala funfest night in St. Louis last summer? And while his arm might be strong, I would not classify his throwing accuracy even in the good category.

This is why 98 pound weaklings love baseball I guess. There is statistic that can prove anything in baseball when the sabermagicians become bored otherwise playing online dungeons and dragons.

by BLou on Mar 4, 2009 9:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If he isn't accurate why are his assist totals high?

Are you even aware of the methods that were used to come up with this analysis of Soriano’s defensive play? It takes into account range. Soriano’s speed actually allows him to get to balls that other players don’t reach. The system also takes into account misplays and errors. Just because you can remember bad plays he made doesn’t mean that he hasn’t made far more good plays. He also makes plays other left fielders can’t make due to his speed and arm. That is unbiased fact not opinion.
I’m not sure if you are aware of this but every major league team uses advanced metrics. It’s not some mysterious magical unproven method of analysis.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 4, 2009 9:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Unbiased fact?

How has Dewan’s metric ever been “proven.”

by ol Pete on Mar 5, 2009 11:37 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

An advertisement

how incredibly appropriate

by ol Pete on Mar 5, 2009 5:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

How can you refute what you don't know?

You see people develop theories then explain those theories in books. If you don’t wish to purchase a book you can always check your local library.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 5, 2009 10:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So the plays he "butchers" may equal how many per season?

5… 6?

And a good outfielder butchers how many?

2-3?

That’s not a gigantic difference.

So again, how many runs does soriano save because of his arm?

A ton.

How many runs does soriano save because runners are too scared to even try to run?

A ton.

How many boneheaded mistakes does Soriano make on needless dives?

None.

How many people can’t grasp the fact that Soriano may have raw talent even if he does aggravate the fanbase sometimes.

Apparently only you.

Conversation at a Cubs Game
Me "I think it's cool that a lot of Cubs have names that are abbreviations. A-Ram, D-Ro, D-Lee.... how about R-Ther (R-Tear).
Cousin "....that just sounds graphic."

by Beaushek on Mar 4, 2009 10:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You Don't Mince Words, But...

these defensive statistics are misleading. I stand by my claim that he is a “D+” outfielder. I still think the main objective of the outfielder is to catch the ball. I think these statistics over value outfield assists and try to estimate how many times baserunners did not attempt to take the extra base because of Sori’s arm. I’d rather have a left fielder who can go get them and can’t throw than a left fielder who doesn’t go get them and can throw. In his prime, Barry Bonds could chase down balls but only had a mediocre, but accurate, arm. That’s my idea of a great left fielder.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Mar 5, 2009 9:40 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

+10 and rec'd

Look, the answer here most likely lies somewhere in between. There definitely appears to be a fair amount of danger in relying purely on this metric to judge Soriano’s defense. (See Imauis post below.) I mean, hell, I’ll confess to clenching my asscheeks regularly when opposing hitters hit balls to left field when Alfonso is out there.

However, the fact remains, if one of a defensive player’s primary assignments is to prevent runs (the other being to procure outs, I suppose), then Soriano has done that in spades over the last three seasons and deserves a certain amount of credit.

My sig line is out for jury duty.

by dat cubfan daver on Mar 5, 2009 10:20 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sounds like religion attacking the heathens. Putting aside Soriano’s throwing, what are some of the subtle things he does to save bases and runs?

by ol Pete on Mar 5, 2009 11:42 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I believe this has been discussed elsewhere in this thread or another recently...

but his speed (when healthy, of course) allows him to get to balls average left fielders cannot get to. People see that and assume ‘routine fly ball’ without giving him any credit; I believe it was also said that great defensive outfielders dive for balls far fewer times than fringe outfielders. Soriano catches balls standing up that someone else might be diving for.

Also, his arm can’t be measured solely on assists and assist ratio (although his numbers are impressive in both regards); one must also consider how his dangerous arm prevents runners from even attempting to take an extra base.

I think a relevant example would be comparing Felix Pie to Johnson/Edmonds; Edmonds and Johnson both made some outstanding outfield catches last year. Due to Sportscenter’s Top 10 and such, these plays enhance the defensive reputation of the involved players. Say some of those same balls get hit to Felix Pie; most likely he makes a running catch and the play is written off as routine and God help him if he drops it or takes a bad route. No credit is given to Pie for his speed which allowed him to turn a difficult catch into a routine fly, but there will certainly always be praise for guys falling all over the outfield for line drives.

And I believe that was Plato on mankind, not religion on the heathens.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Mar 5, 2009 11:56 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Pie dives for balls

I can’t think of a great defensive outfielder who doesn’t dive for balls.

by ol Pete on Mar 5, 2009 5:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Reading is fundamental...

“I believe it was also said that great defensive outfielders dive for balls far fewer times than fringe outfielders.”

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Mar 5, 2009 9:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It’s still a wild claim.

by ol Pete on Mar 6, 2009 11:10 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd suggest the exact opposite.

Soriano’s arm doesn’t appear to be overly strong, he just has an incredible knack for tailing the ball right into the catcher’s reach.

My sig line is out for jury duty.

by dat cubfan daver on Mar 5, 2009 10:25 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Question:

Does it really take just 2 weeks of little league to assume that one’s own subjective opinion is more accurate than those trivial little buggers called statistics?

I’m going to presume that anyone who loathes Soriano has been “nuanced” and anyone who defends him must have fallen short of the 2 week little league minimum. I could have SWORN I made that little 2 week limit (and beyond) but yet I find myself defending Soriano; is it possible that little league baseball failed to “nuance” me?

Amok?

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Mar 5, 2009 9:45 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Which statistics are accurate?

The ones that prove that the earth is flat, communism is the best form of government, negros are inferior? Just about every argument ever made is supported with statistics.

by ol Pete on Mar 5, 2009 11:48 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Rec'd

As long as those using statistics acknowledge they are not the be-all, end-all way, I’m perfectly happy to view any statistical argument those individuals wish to make.

Too often, though, we are told so-and-so is good or bad because of certain numbers, black/white, no middle ground for other analysis. That’s what I object to.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 5, 2009 1:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I hope you post about that type of analysis the next time you see it.

If you see examples of sabermetrics being used to make absolute be-all, end-all, conclusions that are inaccurate then please share it. You hear people arguing against sabermetrics use this argument frequently but I don’t ever see examples offered up.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 5, 2009 4:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll do this...

… I’ve noted it before, and I’ll do so again.

To be fair, if I see a sabermetric analysis that looks as if it’s well done, well researched and backed up, and acknowledges that it’s NOT the be-all, end-all, I’ll post that, too.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 5, 2009 4:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Then you'll be acknowledging every analysis worth its salt

Part of being a good statistician is to proactively identify the shortcomings of your model.

I agree with ATP – the only sabermetricians saying their system is the “be-all end-all” are made of straw.

by Wreckard on Mar 5, 2009 4:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

OK, and I'm not trying to be snarky here...

… you made this post titled “Alfonso Soriano: best fielding LF in baseball”. That’s an absolute statement, and you did back it up with a number.

But even the person who created that number acknowledged that it might not tell the whole story.

Does that make sense to you?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 5, 2009 4:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think you're confusing Dewan's interpretation of the numbers

…with the story the numbers tell.

Dewan’s interpretation, which is very likely correct, is that Soriano’s defensive value over the past 3 seasons has been propped up by his ability to generate assists. Dewan doesn’t see this continuing, however that’s speculative on his part based on a single season’s decline.

What Dewan doesn’t dispute, and the story the numbers tell, is that Soriano was the most valuable defensive left fielder over the past 3 seasons.

by Wreckard on Mar 5, 2009 10:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hardball times backs that up.

Soriano threw out more runners last year with far fewer opportunities than most other starting left fielders.

 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/best-outfield-arms-of-2008/

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 5, 2009 10:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

statistics are not only not the be-all and end-all

they can support false arguments. How hard is that to understand? You made the statement that the existence of a statistic trumps “subjective” opinion. You say that a statistic should be accepted despite one’s eyes seeing differently. I’d say that would be the time to apply the scientific method.

The idea that major league teams didn’t consider various aspects of the game, but somehow through formulas now they do is romantic and gives a lot of young people a sense of empowerment and often arrogance, but I doubt its the epoch you imply.

by ol Pete on Mar 5, 2009 6:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll be honest...

I’m not quite comprehending your argument and its relevance. Can statistics support false arguments? Of course. I did not say a statistic should be accepted no matter what; in fact, my exact words were “one cannot just ignore statistics” and my entire post devalued statistics to some degree, so I’m not following the line of criticism.

It isn’t romanticizing the argument to believe that statistics play a larger role in today’s game. There’s no empowerment or generational superiority involved; it seems to me to be common knowledge. Things like VORP and BABIP simply provide more evaluation tools. And of course it isn’t just baseball, it’s all sports.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Mar 5, 2009 9:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He's a Brewers fan here to nitpick and make vague arguments for his own entertainment.

Of course, I’m not advocating that he be banned or anything. That would be gutless.

My sig line is out for jury duty.

by dat cubfan daver on Mar 6, 2009 10:31 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Didn't realize that...

I’m now done arguing with him.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Mar 6, 2009 10:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Does it really take just 2 weeks of little league to assume that one’s own subjective opinion is more accurate than those trivial little buggers called statistics?

This statement could certainly be interpreted as meaning that the statistic should be accepted. I just don’t think pointing out that conclusions supported by a statistical argument is conclusive of nothing is that hard to understand.

VORP and BABIP existed long before those acronyms did. Your treatment of statistics is romanticized in my opinion.

by ol Pete on Mar 6, 2009 11:18 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes it's just arrogant young people convincing themselves that teams are using sabermetrics

Moneyball was a work of fiction by a nefarious statistician trying to sell his Billy Beane Brand computers to suckers.

Bill James was hired by the Red Sox as a joke. In reality his desk is in the basement, and he spends all his days coming up with new statistical methods to describe his red stapler.

Pitchers are used less these days not because statistical analysis has revealed a high correlation between innings pitched and injury, but in fact because they’re a bunch of pussies who don’t want to hurt their manicures.

Yep, despite the immense amount of dollars on the line these days, players are still evaluated by ballclubs using nothing but a traveling flock of old men in plaid hats with binoculars and hunches. And dag nabbit that’s all a team needs.

by Wreckard on Mar 5, 2009 10:27 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Well put.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Mar 5, 2009 11:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If you were to ask Bill James...

… who, essentially, was the father of this type of analysis, he would be the first to tell you that statistics do not tell the entire story.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 6, 2009 8:53 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I do not think that was his point...

his post stemmed from a response that denied the increased use of statistics in major league front offices.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Mar 6, 2009 9:23 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

OK, point taken.

Of course stats are being used more in front offices — that cannot be denied. I was simply making the point that even the originator of advanced metrics would tell you they are not the be-all and end-all.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 6, 2009 10:38 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You keep saying that

No one who understands statistics would make such a claim. You’re vilifying a straw man.

by Wreckard on Mar 6, 2009 11:03 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Blatantly false.

by ol Pete on Mar 6, 2009 11:20 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hard to pack that many straw man arguments in one post. Well done.

by ol Pete on Mar 6, 2009 11:20 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think that term means what you think it means

No straw men there, just 3 colorful examples that refute this ridiculous statement:

The idea that major league teams didn’t consider various aspects of the game, but somehow through formulas now they do is romantic and gives a lot of young people a sense of empowerment and often arrogance, but I doubt its the epoch you imply

by Wreckard on Mar 6, 2009 12:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sure I do

Its packed with straw man arguments. Really, that’s all that was there. None of it even attempts refutation.

by ol Pete on Mar 6, 2009 12:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok, I guess just keep misusing that term to your heart's content

I gave 3 actual examples of modern statistics influencing the way teams operate. Areas where they didn’t “didn’t consider various aspects of the game, but somehow through formulas now they do”.

by Wreckard on Mar 6, 2009 1:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

No matter how many times you claim it isn’t so, doesn’t change reality. I hope your examples don’t include VORP or BABIP because those are very old concepts.

by ol Pete on Mar 6, 2009 9:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hahahaha

“Old concepts”

Of course there has always been concepts such as overall player value and players having bad / good luck.

They were concepts. A concept and a statistic are not the same thing. I can’t compare two players who I have some vague sense of value for. I can if I have a statistic that represents this.

by Wreckard on Mar 7, 2009 9:35 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Correct me if I'm wrong...

But doesn’t this stat also include the halting runners who would possibly advance because of his arm?

Don’t forget that because of Soriano’s cannon, many runners who would run on a worse outfielder wouldn’t even take the chance on Sori.

And to everyone trying to argue against stats….

They’re numbers, so good luck with your argument.

2+2=4

Would you like to argue that as well?

Conversation at a Cubs Game
Me "I think it's cool that a lot of Cubs have names that are abbreviations. A-Ram, D-Ro, D-Lee.... how about R-Ther (R-Tear).
Cousin "....that just sounds graphic."

by Beaushek on Mar 4, 2009 8:11 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

On a side note

I’ve also noticed that Soriano doesn’t normally dive for balls that are outside his range as well, which also saves bases.

I don’t know the stat’s formula well enough to guarantee this. But, I assume that the formula punishes people like Braun who commit less “errors” while routinely diving for balls and having them go past turning singles into triples.

Conversation at a Cubs Game
Me "I think it's cool that a lot of Cubs have names that are abbreviations. A-Ram, D-Ro, D-Lee.... how about R-Ther (R-Tear).
Cousin "....that just sounds graphic."

by Beaushek on Mar 4, 2009 8:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

good point

Good fielders rarely have to dive for a ball. You also make a good point about diving for a ball and missing. It can be a bad habit and fans will mistake it for good effort.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 4, 2009 9:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You gotta admit

when Sori was down last year runners would go on Reed playing left; and Edmonds for that matter…. I know Edmonds can have a human highlight film dedicated to him that is unmatched, but I’m glad he’s not in center for us this year.

by Steve Sax on Mar 5, 2009 8:48 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I like RJ, but his arm leaves a lot to be desired.

Just last night, I saw him make a very sound catch on a flyball to centerfield with a runner on second, which did force the runner to hold. But his subsequent throw to third was WAY offline.

My sig line is out for jury duty.

by dat cubfan daver on Mar 5, 2009 10:22 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Last nights game......

is one of many examples why he’s not defensively sound, and I’m being kind

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on Mar 5, 2009 9:04 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Can you be more specific?

I saw only the middle innings.

My sig line is out for jury duty.

by dat cubfan daver on Mar 5, 2009 10:23 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I thought it might add some context

The title of the post is misleading because Dewan does not claim that Soriano is the best fielding LF.

by imauis on Mar 5, 2009 10:36 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

But obviously, as Dewas says, there is more to the story.

Also backed up by numbers.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 5, 2009 4:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

*Dewan

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 5, 2009 4:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

he had less opportunities for kills in 08

That was part of the reason why his kills were down even though he still led that category.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 5, 2009 11:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Soriano's Defensive Defenders, were you just watching...

… it doesn’t take long watching Soriano to see his miscues. I’ve watched 3 Cubbie games – and in 2 of the 3 games Soriano’s misplayed balls in the OF. He just had one moments ago (bottom of the first) against the Brewers. Fortunately for Soriano, and his Defensive Defenders, outfielders can misplay balls and not get an error – such as that double that Soriano turned into a triple.

by DrCrawdad on Mar 7, 2009 2:29 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I love your analysis

By watching three spring training games you have determined that a system that analyzes every single defensive play of the regular season is wrong.
If you had any actual knowledge of Dewan’s system you would know that misplays are taken into account and a player does not have to be given an error to earn a minus in his system. I don’t believe anyone has ever said Soriano never makes misplays, he does, but he makes far more plays that are better than the average left fielder.
Unfortunately, you fail to understand that your sample size of 3 spring training games is less reliable than Dewan’s sample size of 162 games.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 7, 2009 5:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

OK, here's exactly what I'm talking about.

Yes, I understand the difference in sample sizes. I understand that watching three ST games isn’t the same as watching 162 games.

Yet you claim the “system” proves that he’s a “better” left fielder. That may be statistically true.

But at times, he looks really bad out there. There’s more to analyzing how a player plays the field than reams of numbers.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 7, 2009 5:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You admit 3 games isn't the same as 162, then completely disregard that admission

If you understand the sample size issue then there is no argument here. What you fail to understand is that the few times he “looks really bad out there,” are far outweighed by the number of above average plays he makes. This is not a difficult concept to understand. People want to use isolated incidents to convince themselves that their perception is correct even if the evidence in totality says otherwise. Believe what you want to believe not what has been proven. Do you understand that the reams of numbers are the results of actual analysis of his play not just a couple of plays in spring training? These numbers are not created out of thin air. The numbers are what actually occurred, the good and the bad.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 7, 2009 6:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Of course I understand that.

I also understand that analyzing reams of numbers is not the only way to analyze a baseball player’s performance.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 7, 2009 8:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What is more accurate?

Is it more accurate to analyze every play in a season or isolated plays in spring training? The number doesn’t analyze anything. Every play is observed and then the numbers are created.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 7, 2009 8:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I give up.

You’ll never understand what I’m trying to say.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 7, 2009 8:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually I do understand what you are saying, just not why you are saying it.

I understand that you think by watching a player you have a better grasp on what kind of player he is than the numbers indicate. That’s the impression you’ve given me by your remarks. You think that even though the defensive metrics show that Soriano is an above average fielder that since you have seen him make poor plays he’s not a good defender. I think I understand you perfectly and I choose to believe that reams of numbers are more accurate in this instance.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 7, 2009 8:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

what does it mean to be "more accurate" in this instance? More accurate to what?

Accuracy in putting, archery and urinating while wearing khaki colored pants I understand. But what does “more accurate” mean when forming an opinion of a player’s defensive skills? Is this a contest? Is there a prize? Is someone going to walk around at the end of the season wearing a t-shirt that says “I’m with Sori”?

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 7, 2009 8:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Are you parsing my remarks in order to create some sort of diversion?

If you agree with Al that anecdotal observation tells us more about Soriano’s defensive skill than a comprehensive season long statistical analysis then I would be interested to hear your thoughts.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 7, 2009 9:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

no diversion intended - just trying to figure out why this matters so much to folks?

Everyone has their own way of looking at things. To put it simply (while realizing it’s more complicated than this), Al relies on his eyes and you rely on numbers. For what? To form an opinion of how good (or bad) Soriano is in the field.

But the way this thread has panned out, it seems more like a debate to see who wins, which viewpoint is more accurate. And that’s what I don’t get. What does being more accurate mean? Again, isn’t this just a matter of personal opinion?

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 7, 2009 9:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

personal opinions

My point and I believe the point of this post is to point out that opinions based on limited personal observations can be inaccurate. It’s my hope that people might put aside their personal “opinions” and look at a more unbiased analysis. When presented with empirical evidence that shows popular opinion may be wrong, people may want to question their own views. As far as what is “more accurate,” I’m asserting that a comprehensive statistical analysis of every defensive play in the regular season is a better judge of a player than observing 3 spring training games.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 7, 2009 9:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

so a personal opinion can be wrong?

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 7, 2009 9:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

According to people who only use statistics for analysis, apparently, yes.

That’s why I give up attempting to put forth my point of view on this issue.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 8, 2009 4:19 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Who only uses statistics for analysis?

A point that’s been made time and again in this thread is that statistics should be considered in addition to what you’ve witnessed. Many here seem to be of the opinion that the “reams of numbers” don’t matter because you’ve seen differently. Misplays occur and some look worse than others which is why you need to look at the performance as a whole, which is what Dewan’s system attempts to do. I would also add that Soriano has a big contract so people seem to get more angry and resentful towards him when he does make mistakes.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 8, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've never said I disagreed with that, have I?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 8, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Of course a personal opinion can be wrong

If I had the personal opinion that Barry Bonds was not good at hitting home runs. This would be easily disproved by available statistics.

This is the same as that, only it’s a statistic that people have a harder time getting.

Really this is representative of Soriano as a ballplayer; he has tremendous positive value offensively as well, but people are so obsessed with and biased by his “ugly” at bats that they’ve convinced themselves he’s a bad player, a guess hitting hack – even though that positive value is easily measured and completely outweighs the bad stretches.

Soriano’s exactly the kind of player one needs to evaluate statistically because he’s so polarizing.

by Wreckard on Mar 8, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even the guy who put out these numbers...

… as posted above, admitted that the numbers don’t tell the entire story about Soriano’s defense.

The question is, why won’t you?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 8, 2009 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

They don't tell the entire story

But they give a much more complete picture than the “eye test”.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 8, 2009 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

They tell a story.

And yes, they give a complete statistical picture.

But they do not give the entire picture. That’s all I’ve been saying.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 8, 2009 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

but they should be taken a lot more seriously than every fan’s view. They are objective and they have a legitimate method. I would hazard to say that most fans can’t claim that.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 8, 2009 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed, again.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 8, 2009 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Al you're getting a little Blue Mike here.

Repeating the same phrases over and over, ignoring reaonsable counterpoints only to make the same points again in another part of the thread. You’re better than that.

I’m not going to reply to this again when I already have.

I have never, once, at all, in any way, said that statistics are the “be all end all” or “tell the entire story”.

by Wreckard on Mar 8, 2009 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, you haven't.

However, you did make this post headlined “Alfonso Soriano: best defensive LF in baseball”. That statement isn’t true.

The statistic only shows that he led the NL in runs saved, by one measure that even the creator of the measure says may be flawed. It does NOT make him “the best defensive LF in baseball”.

If you can’t see that, I think we’re done here.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 8, 2009 6:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've admitted multiple times in the thread

…that the headline was designed to grab readers, and that I don’t actually believe that. I’ve made no attempt to defend the claim.

My goal was to challenge people’s assumptions about Soriano, since he gets a bad rap. I figured as editor-in-chief you’d appreciate that.

However since you have such a difficult time with it, I’ve changed it for your sake.

by Wreckard on Mar 8, 2009 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rec'd

The statistics show only that Soriano, by one measure, saved the most runs of any left fielder in baseball.

The originator of that number said it doesn’t tell the whole story.

That’s all I’ve been saying.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 8, 2009 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually

Multiple defensive metrics mark Soriano as a good defender. PMR, +/- and UZR rank him anywhere from slightly above average to the “best fielding LF in baseball”. I don’t believe that he is that good, but I am certain that he is a quality defender in left, and one of the best in the game.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 8, 2009 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I happen to agree with you...

… despite his jawdropping miscues.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 8, 2009 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I realize that's your opinion, and as such is neither right nor wrong, but...

…you sure about that? ;-)

vs vs vs

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 8, 2009 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh Ludwick

But he’s a RF btw

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 8, 2009 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

umm... that's Chris Duncan.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 8, 2009 7:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh yeah

I had a brain fart.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 8, 2009 7:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rec'd

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 8, 2009 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am not saying every opinion can be right or wrong

But some opinions are so colored by bias, fly in the face of fact, and are in fact completely irredeemable.

The notion that every opinion is just as good as everyone else’s is some seriously touchy-feely bs that I just can’t get behind. An unsupportable opinion is a statement of zero value.

Please note that despite my attention whoring headline I’m not saying that Soriano is the best left fielder in baseball, simply that he’s been the most valuable over the past 3 seasons.

by Wreckard on Mar 8, 2009 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

clarification

I did not put forth the notion that “every opinion is just as good as everyone else’s”. My position was more of that “everyone is entitled to their opinion”.

Back to your earlier example about Barry Bonds not good at hitting home runs. If that’s your opinion, I feel you’re certainly entitled to have that opinion. But when just about everyone else in the baseball free world opine otherwise, I have no problem thinking that your opinion doesn’t carry much weight.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 8, 2009 7:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

As adults don't we all assume that everyone has a right to their opinion?

I certainly don’t believe that people should all have the same opinion but if you are debating a topic isn’t the point to back up your opinion? I think it’s a total cop out when someone presents evidence that contradicts your belief and you say, “well, I’m entitled to my opinion.” They might as well be saying, “I’m entitled to my ignorance.”
When you say, “everyone else in the baseball free world opine otherwise,” it seems like a reference to accepting conventional wisdom. One thing that the advanced metrics have shown is that sometimes conventional wisdom is just wrong.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on Mar 8, 2009 11:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

so you're saying Barry Bonds is NOT a good home run hitter?

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 9, 2009 12:02 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

after further review...

Given the two scenarios in question, I have a somewhat rhetorical proposition for you:

Go out and gather a statistically relevant sample size. Then ask these two questions:
1) Is Alfonso Soriano a good defensive left fielder?
2) Is Barry Bonds a good home run hitter?

When the percentages answering yes start to approach similar numbers, then I will give more credence to your wisdom.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Mar 9, 2009 9:20 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If the bullpen wall wasn't so short

that would still have been a double. Let’s be honest here. I can’t think of one major league park with a fence and bullpen like that.

I’d rather see Soriano not injure himself on that play than hold the runner at second in a meaningless warm-up contest.

"I've got an idea...an idea so smart my head would explode if I even began to know what I was talking about." ~Peter Griffin

by Goodie1969 on Mar 7, 2009 5:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He's not even the best LF in Chicago

But we’ll see what happens on the South side this year. I can’t imagine Q having that kind of season again. That sure as hell looked like a career year to me.

"I'll take one in the mouth over the eyes any day". - AJ Pierzynski
http://lostinthevines.blogspot.com/

by lostinthevines on Mar 8, 2009 10:23 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, and that Geovany Soto...

… he had a career year in 2008 too!

by DrCrawdad on Mar 9, 2009 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You may be right on both.

I hope not. I would be fun to see both Quintin and Soto have big careers at the same time across town.

by N Oakley on Mar 9, 2009 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know I'm not supposed to say this...

…but I’m actually looking forward to both Quentin and Alexei Ramirez this year.

My sig line is out for jury duty.

by dat cubfan daver on Mar 9, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sarcastic in tone...

… sorry that I didn’t make it clear that I was being sarcastic. Soto and Quentin, it may turn out in the long run that ‘08 were careers years for them, but I think they’re both going to have very good careers. Hopefully for the both it’s just the start of great career years one after the other.

by DrCrawdad on Mar 9, 2009 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

+1

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 9, 2009 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stats

are meaningful when read properly. you cannot look at a players numbers alone and know what he can or cannot do. two huge examples of this are
     1. runners thrown out stealing for a C
     2. win – loss for a pitcher.

people forget to look at the other parts that make the stat what it is. some players have more errors because they have better range, some catchers throw out less base stealers because of the slow deliberate approach of a pitcher, some pitchers lose motre games because of no run support.

i am not saying this to defend of debunk anyones arguments here about Soriano, just stating what seems to be lost in translation.

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 8, 2009 2:06 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Not really a valid comparison...

I don’t think any stat-oriented mind would ever dare cite the two examples you gave plus many more (BA, Saves, etc.). That’d be like judging a player’s defensive abilties on number of errors.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Mar 8, 2009 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

talk to many fans

and they will look at such stats. I once had a guy try to explain to me that Sosa was a much better fielder based on the facts that he had less career errors than Banks (no B.S.). The guy fought tooth and nail with me about it, trying to explain how chances have nothing to dowith the pure number of errors. He said you cannot rate a player by fielding percentage, just the number of errors.

this is too dumb to make up, I swear to God, so yes, there are fans who do base it off such minor things, and throw out all the variables.

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 9, 2009 8:04 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't say fans...

I said stat-oriented people. People who get into vorp, babip, win shares, RZR, UZR, etc. Casual fans will always grade players on BA and errors.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Mar 9, 2009 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rec'd

Well said.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 9, 2009 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rec'd

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Mar 9, 2009 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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