Asking Bruce Miles: [W]hat exactly are Lou's strengths and weaknesses?
Miles: His biggest strength, in my mind, is the ability to quickly size up who can play and who can't.
It didn't take him long in '07 to see that Cesar Izturis couldn't play and that maybe, just maybe, Ryan Theriot could. Michael Barrett met the same conclusion from Lou.
He also uses his roster in ways other managers only talk about. Theriot got those much-needed days off last year. He found a good role for Sean Marshall.
Lou also knows hitting like no other manager I've talked with. He can tell you why a guy is grounding into double plays while being fast, and he seems to know why guys fall into slumps.
As much as players roll their eyes at some of Lou's public proclamations, he can be loyal to a fault, and that can become a weakness. Maybe he should have moved Derrek Lee down in the order last year, but Lou stuck with him.
As I mentioned above, Lou also might overthink it at times. Maybe pulling Zambrano early in Game 1 of the 2007 NLDS was an example. Lou got to thinking ahead to games that were never played.
On balance, though, he's the best I've been around.
almost 3 years ago
Ivy Walls
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The only failure I've seen...........
is Lou’s inability to manage Soriano
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
for some reason I think that is more a question of when and not if
A question of timing.
That said I also recall what an astute leader once told me that an effective leader understand how to manage persons of superior “game changing” talent than those who are average. And possibly the difference between winning and losing in the playoffs is how Piniella manages Soriano
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Oh, yes. Here, here.
Two years, 244 games, 29 outfield assists, 62 home runs, 145 runs driven in, OPS+ exceeding 120 both years – all while struggling with injuries. Clearly, Lou has failed to get the most out of Alfonso Soriano.
My sig line is out for jury duty.
Glad you see it my way :)
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
Agreed
My positive view of Lou Piniella is strong and well documented. But that said his single greatest weakness is the coddling of Alfonso Soriano. I for the life of me do not get it. Lou for whatever reason has been loathe to deal with Soriano. He babies him and goes out of his way to make excuses for the guy.
Soriano has been a flat-out bust the past two seasons. I dont’ care what his personal stats show, the bottom line is the guy vaporized two years in a row during the playoffs and absolutely cripples this offense when he is in one of his patented cold spells where he swings from his ass at every pitch.
Funny how you forgot to mention Soriano's hot steaks,
like his tremendous September of 2007 when he led the Cubs to the playoffs!
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Mar 9, 2009 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
you mean the 130 K's?
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
He struck out 31 times in the month of September.
He also had an OPS of 1.108.
My sig line is out for jury duty.
soriano hot steaks
sell out at the local grocer all the time.
There's nothing wrong with this team that more pitching, more fielding and more hitting couldn't help......"--Bill Buckner
by laidbackliam on Mar 9, 2009 11:26 PM CDT up reply actions
This is where our paths diverge.
I understand why Soriano bothers you and many others. Honestly, he bothers me sometimes. But you simply cannot dismiss how his production (noted, in part, above) has contributed to the impressive win totals of the Chicago Cubs for the last two years. You simply cannot.
And, as many others have and will no doubt again point out, Soriano is hardly alone in his failure to produce for the past two postseasons. That said, though I can live with him in the leadoff spot in the regular season, he does appear an albatross there in postseason – where, literally, every AB counts.
My sig line is out for jury duty.
Respectfully disagree
A team invests $136 million in a ballplayer and the expectation is that he shall play like a franchise player. If he can’t be quality and reliable enough as the #1 hitter in the lineup card, then Lou needs to move him down in the batting order where the collateral damage of his cold streaks and swinging from his ass at every pitch is lessened. In a perfect world he should bat #6 for the Cubs. Will that happen? No. Lou is hellbent on living and dying with Soriano in the leadoff spot, his argument being there aren’t other wondrous options available. Well, if it were my lineup card I would tell Soriano to pound sand up his ass and go with the following.
1. Theriot — SS
2. Lee — 1st
3. Bradley — RF
4. Ramirez — 3rd
5. Soto — Cat
6. Soriano — LF
7. Fontenot / Miles — 2nd
8. Kosuke / Johnson / Gathright — CF
Almost perfect......
but I think Soto 6th and Soriano 5th would perhaps encourage pitchers to throw more fastballs to him, in addition, Soriano is too fast on the base paths to be behind Soto even though he’s a terrible base runner.
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
Well, I can live with most of that lineup...
…but the problem is you’ve now put one of the weakest hitters on the team in a position to get the most ABs. Plus, Theriot doesn’t see very many more pitches per plate appearance than Soriano, and Ryan has yet to prove himself an effective baserunner at the major league level. So even though Theriot does a great job getting on base, he doesn’t do much to wear the pitcher down nor disrupt the defense. At least Soriano puts the fear of God into an opposing pitcher – make a mistake to him and the ball is in the bleachers. Not so with Ryan Theriot.
I can live with Soriano in the leadoff spot during the regular season. Of course he has cold streaks – but every player has cold streaks. If Kosuke can rebound, however, I’d bat him leadoff vs. righties and Reed Johnson leadoff vs. lefties – in the playoffs.
My sig line is out for jury duty.
Theriot
I’ve only been on BCB for several months, but I am consistently amazed at how much Theriot is disliked.
How would Theriot be such a terrible leadoff hitter compared with Soriano? Theriot walks more, strikes out less, has a higher BA and had more hits (at least in 2008). Theriot doesn’t work the count? Soriano often swings at the first pitch and rarely walks (unless striking out is now considered working the count). Theriot isn’t a good baserunner? I’ve read this argument a lot on BCB. He’s certainly not a good basestealer (22 SB, CS 13 in 2008), but how does one measure baserunning ability? Is there a metric used for judging a player’s ability going from first to third or scoring from second on a single that I am unaware of? Does Soriano really disrupt the defense all that much? He’s not Vince Coleman or Rickey Henderson, his days of 40+ steals are behind him and it does not appear (from my vantage point) that he’s so fast that he pressures the defense into rushing throws to first (eg. Ichiro).
Overall, Soriano’s an-all-nothing, free swinger whose specialty is the solo home run (because he’s in the leadoff spot). Sure, pitchers fear him moreso than Theriot (although good pitchers take advantage of his glaring weaknesses), but why is that a good qualification for leading off? I’d say that’s a better quality for a 3-6 hitter.
Did you actually read daver's comment?
Nowhere does he say Theriot would “be such a terrible leadoff hitter compared with Soriano”. He said that he wouldn’t be much better.
He didn’t say, “Theriot doesn’t work the count”, he said that “he doesn’t see very many more pitches per plate appearance than Soriano.”
As far as the walks go, Soriano only played in 109 games. If you divide his 43 BB’s by his 453 AB’s, then multiply by Theriot’s 580 AB’s, you get 55 BB’s — a whopping 3 less than Theriot’s 58.
Baserunning ability is hard to quantify, but Theriot ran into several non-CS outs on the bases last year.
I’m not trying to stop you from disagreeing with someone else, but your argument is charged with emotion and lacking support. For the record, I’d rather see Soriano moved down, but I can live with it as it is — which is what daver was saying, too — you make it sound like he’s leading the charge to squelch all opposition to the concept.
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Mar 9, 2009 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions
I say flip Fukudome and Theriot and you have a WS lineup where Soriano is 5th
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Let's reserve judgment on Dome...
until he proves he can turn it around. If he does, however, your suggestion would be just fine by me.
Free Ronny Cedeno
here is the deal with Fukudome
Up until the ASB he was doing quite well and would have been a excellent top of the order player with his .400 OBP
Something fell apart mentally for him, they say he was fatigued mentally and physically but he is not a 25 year old. He needs a role that is definable in what he does, gets on base. He forces pitchers to pitch and can and will foul off their best effort.
What he has to do is learn to turn on their mistakes better.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
There is no way to quantify
Kosuke’s emotional state unless there is some kind of emotional VORP statistic I’ve yet to encounter. The mental thing doesn’t work for me. Fore me, his rapid decline in quality plate appearances during the second half had far more to do with pitcher adjustments than mental fatigue.
http://thegettinplace.blogspot.com/
If only.........
Lou would pull the trigger
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
Yes
So even though Theriot does a great job getting on base, he doesn’t do much to wear the pitcher down nor disrupt the defense
My main point is that I don’t think Soriano does much to wear down the pitcher or disrupt the defense either. Thus, I’d rather have the guy that “does a great job getting on base” at the top of the order and the guy that “put’s the fear of God into an opposing pitcher” near the middle of the order.
There was no intended vitriol on my end. I apologize for coming off that way.
Oh, I didn't think it was as bad as you thought I thought it was
Just saying that you took his comment to mean, “Sori’s #1”, and all he was really saying is, “there might be something to gain with Theriot, but not much.”
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Mar 10, 2009 10:24 PM CDT up reply actions
i.e. no need to apologize
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Mar 10, 2009 10:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Thanks for having my back, Shanghai.
Zonk, I really don’t have a ton to add to what Shanghai said. But, as far as baserunning ability, in that particular case, I’m not really looking at stats – and I’ll freely admit to that.
If you want to look at stolen bases, though, fine. Theriot stole 22 and was caught stealing 13, Soriano stole 19 and was caught stealing 3 times. Not that big a difference and, as Shanghai noted, Soriano played a whole lot less. Moreoever, in my opinion, Theriot simply doesn’t invoke terror in the minds of opposing defenses on the basepaths. He just doesn’t. He gets caught stealing a ton (as noted) and runs himself into outs. I just don’t ’think he worries other teams all that much, thus, his value as a leadoff hitter plummets.
I’d also add that if Theriot was such a “gimme” in the leadoff spot, Lou would have put him there and left him there long ago. I choose not to believe that Lou “coddles” Soriano. I believe that if Lou honestly believed Soriano would help the team more in a lower spot, he would’ve put him there long ago.
Apparently, Lou sees the value in a guy that feels comfortable batting lead off and, in the due course of a season, hits 30ish home runs a season and has an OPS in the upper 800s. Apparently, Lou doesn’t feel the need to discount that player’s contributions to the success of the team just because said player strikes out a lot or has some bizarre and, yes, annoying quirks to his game. Silly Lou.
OK, I lied. I did have a lot to add.
My sig line is out for jury duty.
Well
I would say there is a pretty big difference between an 86% stolen base success rate and a 63% one . . . supposedly Sori’s leg will allow him to run more this year too (whether that ends up happening remains to be seen).
That said, for the most part I agree with the rest of your points. This team doesn’t have any players who are perfect fits for the leadoff position (as so few teams actually do).
Well, I meant not a big difference in their respective numbers of stolen bases.
Their success rates are quite different.
But you’re right. As Lou has mentioned (or implied) on many occasions, this team, like many, doesn’t have a protypical leadoff hitter. It just doesn’t. So I think we can infer from that Lou doesn’t consider Theriot a leadoff hitter – protypical or otherwise.
My sig line is out for jury duty.
Some of us actually like Ryan Theriot a good deal
I used to be the big cynic. But not anymore. Theriot is a catalyst on this ballclub and is actually an average defensive shortstop when all is said and done. He gets on base and hustles. Does he have areas of improvement? Sure he does, most notably base-stealing. But I like him. So what if he is an over-achiever type. Seems to deliver more in the clutch than the declining Derrek Lee, who is among a handful of sacred cows on this roster that you don’t dare challenge his production value or else the BCB pitbulls come out.
No one was "clutch" in the 2007 or 2008 postseason.
Yes, Lee hit well in the 2008 postseason. Didn’t help much.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
My argument...
was just that Lee was “more” clutch than Theriot. Although better hitters typically perform better, so I suppose I shouldn’t be arguing about a largely media-contrived intangible.
Free Ronny Cedeno
Plenty of people criticized Lee on this site
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Mar 9, 2009 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions
I think it's got to be either one or the other
I don’t think the team would respond well to one lineup April – September, and another in October – if they are playing then.
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Mar 9, 2009 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, that's the conundrum I face.
I just think the Cubs need to find a way to slow the game down come playoff time, and moving Soriano out of the leadoff spot may help do that. Then again, I can well imagine the media firestorm Lou would invoke if he made a “drastic” move like that in October.
My sig line is out for jury duty.
Yeah, and Lou doesn't always respond well to that . . .
I suppose if he discussed it in Mesa, the team would be prepared, and to hell with what the media and fans say. Would be pretty unorthodox, though — and most managers don’t like unorthodox.
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Mar 10, 2009 10:27 PM CDT up reply actions
i couldn't disagree more...
with your comment on Ryan’s pitches per plate appearance. Now, i’m not a huge Theriot supporter but i always seem amazed at how well he protects the plate. I can’t recall seeing another guy know how to perfectly foul off pitch after pitch after pitch when he’s behind in the count… just looking for a good pitch to hit.
Soriano, in my estimation is good for 4 pitches when he’s up.
Having said that, you are right… no one fears Theriot
by RMRZisMYmanCRUSH on Mar 9, 2009 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Pitches
You’re right . . . about Soriano — 3.73 pitches/PA.
Ryan Theriot — a whopping 3.77.
So much for that theory about him “working the plate”.
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Mar 9, 2009 9:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh, and 4 is pretty good
Fukudome — 4.29
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Mar 9, 2009 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions
well yur right
those numbers don’t say much to my point. But i have a question about those definitions…
if Thereiot say… eventually gets walked after fouling off 5 straight pitches. Does that AB count or does it go down as a BB? Wonder if that skews the averages?
by RMRZisMYmanCRUSH on Mar 9, 2009 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions
think i just answered
my own question. The stat is pitches per plate appearance… not per AB.
Well… the stats dont lie but damned if it doesn’t seem like Theriot is good at being very selective up there. Think i’ll make a drinking game where ya drink for every foul tip down the right field line :)
by RMRZisMYmanCRUSH on Mar 9, 2009 10:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Hey, I'm in
As long as I have some say in what we drink
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Mar 9, 2009 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions
I do what I can
And clearly, I am online too much late at night.
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Mar 10, 2009 10:27 PM CDT up reply actions
I thought
Z was batting 2 playing LF with Sori returning to 2B?
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
Soriano's Post Seasons
have been so bad, though, that it has to be front and center. He’s the highest paid offensive player on a pretty good team even without him. It may not be fair, but if he fails to perform in the playoffs it can’t be considered a successful season regardless of what he does in the regular season.
by jerry morales rules on Mar 9, 2009 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
That's exactly right
He is being payed one of the biggest salaries in baseball to be a difference-maker and to deliver when it counts the most. He has utterly failed in this respect. I’ve resigned myself into understanding that Soriano is the type of player who puts up sexy personal stats but contributes marginally to winning baseball games. He is a second division warrior who should be playing for a second-division team ala his “MVP” days with a bad Texas team in 2004 and 2005 and a very bad Washington team in 2006.
Sarcasm noted
Perhaps one of the resident sabermagicians can rifle through their archives of data points and put up the performance metrics of Soriano in various situations. To include by month, in close ballgames, in the late innings, by opponent, by pitcher. I’m quite sure the analysis will show that Soriano eats crappy pitching for lunch but struggles profusely against the better teams and better pitchers. And in “game” situations. We all know he is a paper tiger in the postseason. Soriano is the quintessential ballplayer who finishes each season with nice personal stats, but if you go back and review or ask his manager the contribution he had to the team winning then you’d likely get a different story. He’s the definition of a stats whore. Sammy Sosa was also one. Being a stats whore is somewhat uncontrollable dependent on the team situation a player finds himself in. But you get the point, so lets not split hairs terribly much on definition.
I look forward to the following 20 posts surely to follow that claim I’m an idiot on this.
My problem with your argument...
is that is stems from your personal hatred for Soriano.
Soriano should be moved down? Argument can be made.
Soriano not as good in left as some stats suggest? Argument can be made.
Soriano does not do enough to justify his salary? Naturally.
Soriano is some sort of choke artist? Again, argument can be made.
And on, and on, and on….
However, your opinions go to such a far greater extent than any other person who dislikes Soriano. He sucks at defense because you say so. Lou ‘coddles’ him (even though there is no evidence except to the contrary). He is a complete waste of 136 mil. He’s a guess hitting hack.
Is Soriano overpaid? Yes, but who gave him that contract? I’m not going to condemn a player for getting the maximum contract he can unless there is a noticeable lack of effort following. Soriano may not be living up to 136, but that was the Cubs decision.
Soriano is a very good player and I suspect he’ll have a huge 09.
Free Ronny Cedeno
So, by that measure...
…did Aramis Ramirez have unsuccessful ‘07 and ’08 seasons? Was Derrek Lee’s ’07 season unsuccessful? Geovany Soto put up a measly .523 OPS in the postseason last year. Should they take away his Rookie of the Year award?
Look, Soriano’s admittedly ridiculous salary is just a number. He got what the market would bear – and the market was, well, ridiculous. But I just don’t think it’s fair to disregard the production he’s brought to the Cubs in the regular season – production that, again, has indisputably contributed to the team’s win-loss record – just because he’s failed in a small sample of postseason ABs. Because, again, almost every hitter in the lineup has failed in the postseason for the past two years.
My sig line is out for jury duty.
Ramirez and Lee had unsucessful seasons, yes they did
I’m not saying it’s fair. Soraino, Ramirez, and Lee are veterans on one of the best team in the National League with one of the highest payrolls. Being good in the regular season is not enough, especially when neither of them put up numbers that were anything special for thier careers.
I think those guys would admit the same.
Soto was a rookie. He doesn’t have the same pressures those guys do.
by jerry morales rules on Mar 9, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions
That's a bit of a stretch
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Mar 9, 2009 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions
A bit?
Ramirez and Lee had unsucessful seasons, yes they did
You could make the argument against DLee, but Aram?
.289 BA 27 HR 111 RBI .380 OBP 128 OPS+ in 149 games with plus defense?
Please. Just silly.
http://thegettinplace.blogspot.com/
My point is that they each individually failed in the playoffs
And because of that, unless they put up career best numbers, I consider 2008 unsuccessful seasons for them. They put up decent numbers in the regular season. I hope that A-Ram especially puts up those same numebrs this season. However, if he has another post season like 2008, it will, taken as a whole, be an unsuccessful season.
by jerry morales rules on Mar 10, 2009 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions
Hey, that's a fair enough opinion.
It really speaks to one of the eternal arguments among baseball fans: Does the regular season matter if the postseason is a dismal failure? Should a team get any credit for a brillant regular season if they crash and burn in the postseason as the Cubs – and Angels, I would add – did.
I personally believe a team and its players should get some credit for slogging out a 162-game campaign and coming out on top – especially well on top the way the ‘08 Cubs (and Angels) did. Should they get as much credit as a team that wins it all? Well, no, they shouldn’t. Because a World Series championship is, after all, the ultimate goal.
But, given the utter randomness of the postseason, I still think players and teams deserve some modicum of praise and recognition for what they accomplish in the regular season. Thus, I wouldn’t characterize Soriano – nor DLee or Aramis – as having unsuccessful seasons, though each of their seasons could’ve been better in various ways.
My sig line is out for jury duty.
For one
I think that abandoning the ridiculous rule that teams from the same division can’t be matched up in the LDS would help. If you had the best record in the regular season, you should be rewarded with the best possible matchup, regardless of which division they come from.
Expanding the LDS to 7 games would also help. Baseball has such a long season, which rewards consistency more than anything, that it seems almost unfair to change the format to be one that is so prone to rewarding short hot streaks (reminds me how both soccer and hockey turn to shootouts to break ties – like changing formats altogether).
Mind you, I don’t think making these two changes would have saved the Cubs from failing the last two postseasons, but I do think it would provide a more adequate reward for teams that have posted great regular seasons.
I agree.
At the very least, they should expand the NLDS to seven games. Granted, that probably wouldn’t have saved the Cubs in ‘07 or ’08, though they did seem to be settling down a bit in that last game in LA. Maybe the bats would’ve come alive in Game Four. Yeah, right.
My sig line is out for jury duty.
Seven game LDS = straw man
Seriously. If a team’s good enough to win in the playoffs, what difference does it make how long the series is? A good team should be able to win three of five against another good team.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
One example out of how many series?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Statistically speaking
The better team is more likely to win a longer series.
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Mar 10, 2009 10:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Statistically speaking...
… the better team should win ANY series.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
True, but
Still have a better chance to win the longer ones.
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Mar 13, 2009 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions
I think Lou is too quick
to pull the trigger on pitchers that he doesn’t like such as Wuertz, Eyre, and Marquis and I’m sure others that I fail to mention. Marquis was the best number 5 in the NL and Lou still gave him zero respect till the end of the season. Also Wuertz and Eyre are good relievers and Lou dog walked them opting for Howry?? instead. My wife has zero knowledge of baseball but when Howry got the call even she knew exactly what was about to happen. Lou wears blinders sometimes and is loyal to a fault but I still love the guy.
Life is a crazy game of poker
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