Cotts v Waddell

Since everyone seems to want Cotts' head on a pike these days, I dove into the numbers to show that his replacements aren't great shakes either. I was proved wrong, and now I'm starting to climb on the Waddell bandwagon

6 months ago berselius 17 comments 0 recs |

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LOOGY's have a tough job

few are actually that effective. Those that are are usually relievers like Wagner who can get either out.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Apr 19, 2009 10:56 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

ironically former Cub LOOGY's are doing well

Eyre is 2.2 IP (5-G. 2-HLDS) 0.00 ERA, Scott Downs 6.2-IP (6-G, 2-HLDS)) 0.00 ERA, and Pinto 4-IP (5-G) 2.25-ERA, then there is Seay (4 Hlds), Beimel (3-HLDS), Thornton (2-HLDS), Carlson (1-HLD), Hinckley 2-HLDS),

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Apr 19, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's not quote stats based on what's likely 5 appearances

You have to look at these guys’ career numbers to get a handle on how they will do, not just how they’ve pitched in the last week. Cotts may be pitching terribly, but I don’t think that he’s going to go out there and walk guys on 8 straight pitches or cough up runs in every appearance. Any of those guys you listed above are more than capable of putting up a line like Cotts’s line in their next 3 innings or so

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Apr 19, 2009 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Neal Cotts is not a LOOGY.

Look at his splits. I’ve been one of his few defenders here, a job that gets particularly difficult and thankless when he has an admittedly awful outing like yesterday’s. Given Lou’s well-established impatience with lefties who don’t immediately throw strikes with absolute consistency (Ohman, Pigniatello, Eyre), I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see Cotts get the heave-ho. And, if he does, so be it. A major league pitcher has to be able to get outs no matter what situation he’s put in. No excuses.

Nonetheless, I say again: Despite giving up a lot of hits last season (some of which could be blamed on plain, old bad luck), he put up very good numbers. And he’s pitched only 2.2 innings so far this inning, hardly a fair sample.

If Lou REALLY wants a LOOGY, Hendry should go out and get one – maybe Waddell’s ready, maybe he’s not. (Or maybe Hendry should’ve gotten one in the first place – Beimel was available.) But if Lou wants a potentially solid arm out of the pen who happens to throw from the left side, he should give Neal at least a few more chances to ~~prove~~ redeem himself.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on Apr 19, 2009 12:13 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs

Rec'd.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 19, 2009 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you say "potentially solid"

But when has he been solid, outside of 2005? He was fine last year, not great. His other major league years have been mediocre to downright horrid. I know we’ve been back and forth on this and we’re not likely to agree. Seeing as how he isn’t a LOOGY, why hold onto a mediocre lefty arm when there are righty arms available that will do the same job and likely do it better.

This is why I said at the time of his trade that getting rid of Wuertz was a mistake.

by dmlichte on Apr 19, 2009 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So "fine" doesn't equal "solid"?

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by dat cubfan daver on Apr 19, 2009 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

we're parsing words here

IMO his 1.43 WHIP wasn’t solid. It wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t anything great.

by dmlichte on Apr 19, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, I was under the impression...

…we weren’t talking about a single stat but rather his years. As I mentioned above, he did give up a lot of hits last year, which largely led to that high WHIP, but his BABIP was also .350. Most pitchers’ BABIP hovers around .300, so Cotts may have run into a lot of bad luck with infield singles and groundballs getting through.

Granted, he was awful in ‘06, but you’re also failing to mention that he spent most of 2007 in Triple A, so his major league numbers that year are based on a particularly small sample (16.2 innings!). He started ’08 in Iowa then did a lot of good work last year when he finally did get called up. That tells me he may have figured something out or simply reached a higher level of maturity.

I really wonder whether having a breakout season in his third year in the bigs – and winning a freakin’ World Series ring – may have messed with his head. In any case, hey, if Lou sends him packing, c’est la vie. It won’t ruin my season. But I’m going to continue to stick up for Cotts until I have more to go on than 2.2 frakkin’ innings.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on Apr 20, 2009 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not that this has anything to do with Cotts....

… but Lou gave up on Carmen Pignatiello last year after about as much time. Not saying Pignatiello was necessarily going to be any good, but after the good spring that got him on the team, Lou dumped him in a hurry.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 20, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's true.

And I wouldn’t be all that shocked if the same thing happens to Cotts. If Lou’s, ahem, ire is 1/10 of the vitriol I see bubbling forth around here, Neal might as well start packing his bags now. Then again, I’d hope Lou takes Cotts’ major league service time into account – Pigniatello had zero. Cotts has at least proven he can get major league hitters out over the course of a season. (When he’s not missing the strike zone, of course.)

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on Apr 20, 2009 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What are you using to make that statement?

Look at his FIP in the link above – generally he’s pitched better against left-handers than right-handers. Weirdly the OPS is about the same though.

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Apr 19, 2009 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think OPS and BAA...

…but I’ll take a closer look at the numbers (again) tomorrow. I’m a little pressed for time here.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on Apr 19, 2009 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

We're probbaly parsing words here too

I think we both agree that the numbers don’t definitively show that Cotts is particularly good at getting lefties out compared to the average LOOGY

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Apr 19, 2009 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, that was my point exactly.

He shows no great predilection for getting out lefties; thus, he is not a LOOGY.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on Apr 20, 2009 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Neal Cotts is horrendous

Lets face it, Lou Piniella winces everytime he brings him into a game. And for good reason. I can’t believe there isn’t a single left-handed reliever that could be reasonably had during the offseason.

Time to move Sean Marshall back to the bullpen.

by BLou on Apr 19, 2009 7:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I wish it was that simple for me, but it's not.

Here’s how it breaks down:

2003: First cup o’ coffee – only 4 games, not worth discussing.

2004: First full season (56 games) – mediocre to bad.

2005: 69 games, elite set-up man numbers, World Series ring.

2006: Major setback so, sure, horrendous.

2007: Spent most of season in Triple A

2008: 50 games, numbers much better than one’s memory might indicate

2009: 2.2 innings, not worth ~~discussing~~ drawing conclusions from just yet.

So, as I see it, Cotts career has been a wash thus far. You have two bad years and two good ones. What I see is a guy with good raw stuff who throws hard and comes at hitters with a pretty crazy arm angle (it looks like his release point is somewhere along the first base line). What I also see is a guy who struggles hitting the strike zone consistently. 99.9% of Cubs fans have apparently given up on him. I haven’t. We’ll see how it plays out.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on Apr 20, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs