Well said and presented, and I agree 100%.

He will put up respectable numbers and provide good defense, but he’s on the down turn of his career. That fly ball he hit to the warning track today against Arizona, used to be a home run. Still, he will probably hit .280 with 15-20 home runs.

… this is an excellent example of a good FanPost. It’s a new topic, it’s presented well with facts to back up the writer’s opinion.

I voted “IT’S OBVIOS!” ‘cause it is people. He’s gone through HELL for a while now and as much as I support him helping his daughters cause I thin that’s where the toll has been taken.

Him not being able to concentrate on the game is secondary to him standing by his daughter. Hell, the game is probably way further down the list… which just goes to prove the point….

Lynch way….
an ad-lib on the standard reply when posting around here

… this time I am drunk!

which was well presented, and I give you kudos for that, is that all the stats of every player from 2008 or prior wins us 0 games in 2009. I know stats help to get a true idea of a player, and his trends, but there is also a time to look at present stats and not stats of yesteryear.

Again, great post, and I appreciate the time you took to post it, it was well thought out, innformative, and a breath of fresh air. I rec’d it

I voted for “We won’t know for a while yet.”

Since you’ve studied this in detail, what do you think best explains 2008?

It’s pays to look at his more controllable skills (walks, strikeouts, power) than his actual results, because those correlate best from year to year and aren’t muddied with luck or other factors. Looking at those controllable skills over the past three seasons, I definitely see some signs of decline.

2007: 11.1 BB%, 20.1 K%, .196 ISO (650 PA)
2008: 10.2 BB%, 19.1 K%. .172 ISO (698 PA)
2009: 8.2 BB%, 17.9 K%, .104 ISO (75 PA)

He is walking less, striking out less and hitting for less power. K’s have actually been shown to have a decent correlation with walks and homers, so if he is striking out less than that isn’t really a positive thing, especially for a guy who doesn’t have the speed to sustain a really high BABIP.

It’s too early to tell whether he is actually fallen off of the cliff this year, but he is most likely on the downside of his career. As a first baseman with a below average glove (at least based on most defensive metrics), he is simply not offering the Cubs anything in the way of production right now. Regardless or whether or not he is actually in decline (I think he is for the reasons I stated above), he is hurting the team right now, and it doesn’t appear that he will turn it around any time soon. I hate to say this, but Micah should probably be getting some starts at first, at least until Lee shows something offensively.

Lee also has an “unlucky” BABIP of .232.

This is more than unlucky. This will increase to .300 or .320 by the end of the year. No way in hell it stays below .300. I would kiss you DGU if I could. Well done.

Dan

But having done so, I think the Cubs can still survive with an aging DLee provided the other bats in the regular lineup get healthy (ARam, Bradley) and get going (Fontenot, Soto). Not sure I’d leave him in the #3 spot, though.

There has to be a middlle ground between the “DLee is still great, just give him time” people and the “DLee sucks make way for Micah” contingent.

Personally, I think the people who seem to not see any decline in his skills are in serious denial based on the fact that they really like him. I mean, I remember how hard it was for me to acknowledge a similar fact about Ryno when he made his comeback in ’96.

I like Lee. I don’t advocate taking him out of the lineup (although I would try resting him maybe more than he seems to like). He simply should not be hitting in the 3 hole anymore. Move him down, take some of the pressure off of him and see how he responds.

Mike Murphy on WSCR the other day said that he thinks Lou’s afraid to move Lee in the order which, if true, boggles my mind. Keeping him where he is, whether it’s some sort of a “respect for a veteran thing” or not, isn’t helping him or the team.

I do think his hand/wrist are still and issue and will be for the rest of his professional career. Don’t laugh at this comparison, but I watch a lot of MMA, spar a bit myself, and know some people who train (although they’ll never be at a professional level). A broken/damaged hand or wrist is one of the worst injuries you can sustain because that broken hand or wrist, even when it’s healed, will always be a problem. You’re always going to have some type of pain in that hand when doing something that is physically taxing, it’s never going to be as strong as it once was, and your mind and body will adjust how you use that hand to minimalize the pain/avoid injury. His nagging neck/back/disc issue isn’t helping things either. I think if he could at least get over that, he’ll be solid for the rest of the year, despite the previous injury to his hand.

And in 2008/2007 he hit below his norm in HR and RBI’s. 2006 he was hurt, so he didn’t produce that year. But he hit into career highs for GiDP’s in ’08 and ’07, and was in route to that in ’06 with 11 in 50 games.

Am I saying he shouldn’t be on the team? No. He is a good defensive asset. But he is not producing in the 3-hole.

I think the back/neck problems are likely the source of much of this. Any sort of trouble like this is going to make it more difficult to swing a bat and make good contact. Lee is the type of player who you have to force to take a day off.

Maybe they need to force him to take 15 days off and really, truly heal, because playing every day isn’t going to help back and neck trouble.

warning track power, to me, is

Lee’s warning track power is the most troubling thing I see in his 3 hole slot. When he has made good contact this season, his drives are not reaching the seats.

Forget the numbers for a second and watch his at bats. If you can’t tell that his bat is slow, you don’t watch enough baseball. Opposing announcers comment on it. I think even the FOX crew commented on it before. He gets fastballs right down main street and almost always fouls them back towards the first base line. That right there is all I need to see to know that he’s simply not getting the barrel of the bat around in time to truly drive it. And this isn’t an isolated thing that I’ve seen, it happens all the time.

Now, you might say ‘well the numbers tend to disagree with you over the years’. Fine. But everyone here (including myself) has proclaimed him an amazing (or at least very good) defensive first basemen in spite of the mediocre defensive numbers he has. That’s another case where I trust my eyes over the numbers sometimes. I know he’s still a very good defensive first basemen. The numbers disagree. But I watch him pick throws out of the dirt every game, plays that I see countless first basemen mess up rather frequently.

Now, do I think Hoffpauir should take over? Of course not. I’m willing to give Derrek the benefit of the doubt. I’m hoping that he turns it around – I really want him to. I’m just afraid that an .800 OPS is asking too much of him this year. And if his offense continues to slip that much, the Cubs have a serious problem on their hands.

Also:

but find me a player who had an OPS+ over 150 somewhere between his age 27-31 seasons, as well as above average seasons consistently for 9 straight seasons, and then never had another above-average season after he turned 33. Is there a single player in the modern era who fits that description?

I thought about this for 3 seconds before going here. In Andruw Jones’ age 28 season he had a 136 OPS+ while dropping 51 bombs, and we’ve seen him fall from grace like few others. And he’s actually a year younger than Derrek (32). He’s looked good this year, but that’s 39 plate appearances while mostly DHing. I’m not sure if this was the type of example you were looking for, and I didn’t think about it for too long, but it’s not impossible for a player around this age to lose their bat rather rapidly.

regarding the wind. I was just pointing out that while most posters are concerned w/ what Lee’s not hitting, I’m a little concerned w/ the balls he is hitting well. Maybe it’s a coincidence that he’s only hitting balls solidly in such circumstances? I don’t know.

…there’s so much good info and discussion in this Fanpost that I think I need to print it out and read it later. I can’t quite summon the energy to digest all of it right now. Thanks for doing this, though, DGU!

I work for D-Lee; So I am really getting a kick out of most of these replies. Some of you guys are very good at making it sound like you know what you are talking about. But trust me…. You don’t. I think you just want to make yourself sound smart, when in reality you don’t know what you are talking about. This is how bad info gets passed around. If you dont know about the topic….Dont make yourself sound like you do. Cos some BCBers believe anything they hear.

Great post DGU. Rec’d.
Boring replies everyone.

Bite me

:-) :-)