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The myth that Derrek Lee is NOT declining...

A previous post arguing that Derrek Lee was not declining was a poor example of statistical analysis...

 

They were grouping certain years of stats together in a way that supported their argument, which is a pretty disingenuous thing to do.  Saying DLee of 2001-2004 is equal to DLee of 2006-2008 might be statistically true, but it masks the historical trending.  Here is what DLee has done since 2001 whenever he has played a full year:

 

BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+

2001: .282/.346/.474/.820/112

2002: .270/.378/.494/.872/131

2003: .271/.379/.508/.888/131

2004: .278/.356/.504/.860/117

2005: .335/.418/.662/.1080/174

2006: Played 50 games / wrist injury

2007: .317/.400/.513/.913/131

2008: .291/.361/.462/.823/110

 

I'm not even including his horrendous numbers from this year.  Look at those year over year numbers and it's pretty clear what's happening with DLee.  He was an ascending player until 2005.  There was a hiccup in 2004, where he got traded to the Cubs, had to deal with playing in cold weather, and was booed and subjected to "HEE SOP CHOI" chants for two months.  Whether or not you believe this year’s stats are trend or mirage, since 2005 he has clearly been in statistical decline.

 

I'd also like to take this opportunity to point out one thing that drives me nuts.  Every time someone states an opinion that another person doesn't like, the aggrieved person hysterically demands that you "prove it statistically."  Guess what stats geeks?  Baseball is not 100% defined through statistics.  Looking at a boxscore will never tell you the same thing that watching a game does.  In my opinion, scouting with your eyes will tell you half the story, numbers will tell you the other half.  Anyone that relies too heavily on one approach or the other is a fool. 

 

As someone that's been involved in baseball for my entire life, I can tell you this from a scouting perspective:  Derrek Lee's bat speed is gone.  He can't hit the high inside fastball, he can't protect the outside corner, and he's starting his swing early to get his cheat on which is leaving him susceptible to the low and away outside pitch.  Even when he connects, he is now showing warning track power...the last true sign that the bat speed is gone for an aging vet.  Add this to the statistical evidence I’ve already given, and I think we can safely say that it’s time to gracefully show Derrek the door.

 

I truly hope no one here gets me wrong…I love Derrek Lee's defense, and appreciate his faithful service to the club for the last 6 years.  Unfortunately, a big market team with a $140 mil payroll and World Series aspirations can't afford a .280 hitter with 13 HR and 80 RBI that is a good guy at 1B.  And they especially can't continue to bat him 3rd.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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I got one stat for you....

No Trade Clause

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Apr 30, 2009 10:06 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

A great place to put this...

would have been in the DERREK LEE thread, where this is ALREADY being discussed at length.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Apr 30, 2009 10:25 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I felt that this point of view...

also deserved it’s own thread. Where the statististical analysis wouldn’t get swallowed up by 250 other comments that nobody bothered to read before commenting.

"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"

by mutleyil on Apr 30, 2009 10:33 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

You're right.

Your view is much more important than anyone else’s, and clearly deserves its own thread. Because your points haven’t at all been touched on in the existing thread.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Apr 30, 2009 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I read all of them...

and no, no one posted the analysis I did in this new thread. Sorry if this offends your sensibilities, but I don’t see your name on the list of editorial contributors.

If All thinks this thread is redundant with the other thread, I am happy to have them merged, and apologize for the inconvenience. Personally, I perceive this as a separate thread that delineates between two schools of thought amongst Cubs fans.

"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"

by mutleyil on Apr 30, 2009 11:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes they did.

All of his stats were displayed. Many commented on his bat speed. Statistical evidence was provided. Subjective analysis was added.

It’s a well-written point, to be sure, but it centers on the EXACT same debate that already exists. You obviously disagreed with the previous FanPost, which means that commenting on that is the appropriate action to get your message across.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Apr 30, 2009 11:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

very, very well said

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 12:34 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am not offended

I jsut gave my opinion (below) that it could have been part of the other or a perfect “point/counterpoint” dual post. I have no problem with it over all being a seperate post.

I still would like to know your credentials, due to your following statement

As someone that’s been involved in baseball for my entire life, I can tell you this from a scouting perspective

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

KUDOS

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 12:33 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stats are facts.

I have a hard time reading your post when you use stats to prove your so-called claim…then refuse the usage of stats as some times irrelevant, and instead favor qualitative analysis. I’m confused.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Apr 30, 2009 10:48 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Stats

I don’t think the poster is saying stats can’t be used, he’s saying that they’re only part of the equation. The use of only stats doesn’t show the full picture as leaving them out entirely doesn’t either. Stats need to be used, but not as the sole measurement. Mutieyil did a good analysis using observation and stats. Thanks for the insight and observations.

by portlandcubfan on Apr 30, 2009 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

When evaluating a player...

I feel it’s a mistake to rely 100% on statistics. I also feel it’s a mistake to rely 100% on what your eyes tell you. I feel by combining the 2, you get an accurate sense of the value of a player. In the case of DLee, both indicators are heading downward unfortunately.

"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"

by mutleyil on Apr 30, 2009 10:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't have a problem with your position for your post

But it would have been more appealing if you didn’t sort of berate the original D-Lee post. I get what you are saying, and I do think Lee is on the decline. I don’t expect to see him do anything extraordinary anymore.

by adam316 on Apr 30, 2009 11:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Definitely was not trying to "berate"...

As someone with statistical training, I just wanted to point out the bias in the way the original statistics were presented to defend isolated performance. I think I have presented the overall statistics objectively.

"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"

by mutleyil on May 1, 2009 12:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

what is your training

if you are going to try to make sure we all know we are beneath you, you should provide credentials

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 8:05 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Where did he say he was above everyone?

Seems like a pretty harmless fanpost to me.

http://thegettinplace.blogspot.com/

by TheTruth11 on May 1, 2009 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

read the tone of the post

and it states that he knows better than the “fools” as he says. and where hs mentions his life in baseball with a scouting angle, but not once has he provided any evidence to the credentials he hints at.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm finally getting to this fanpost.

I should probably leave well enough alone, but what, exactly, did you provide statistically that I didn’t provide? I gave the OPS+ as shorthand for the triple-slash and a link to the full stats if you wanted to see them. You gave the triple-slash stats and the OPS +. Oh, and I also gave more specific stats that can actually tell us what Lee’s bat is and isn’t doing.

The stats don’t even back up what you’re saying (that Lee was in a straight line up to 2005 and a straight line down since then). You had to make a dubious explanation for why his 2004 stats dipped.

I agree that scouting reports are useful. I wish I had access to them on veteran players. I’m not going to argue your scouting credentials because there’s no way of proving it one way or another. I’ll definitely make use of scouting reports when talking about prospects because we all have access to summaries of those reports through BA and Kevin Goldstein at BP, but with veterans we don’t have those and so anyone can come on here and say what they want.

Last year we had a number of entertaining scouting reports on Fukudome’s batting troubles that proved he’d never hit in the MLs again.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 4, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The first post about D Lee...

was “certified” and “mythified” by Al as a great post, and put in his “recommend” hall oif fame, so your response will be vilified and rejected here now as not a good post. That is how things seem to go around here.

The most fun I ever had in my life was hittin' a baseball. And the best sound I ever heard in my life was a ball hit with a bat. Powww! (Ted Williams)

by letsplay2two on Apr 30, 2009 11:45 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Note Vivaelpujols...

and his response. He had a great and lengthy analysis that proved otherwise, and there it was, as a comment of disagreement.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Apr 30, 2009 11:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

vivaelpujols

did a much better job of presenting the facts to his argument without trying to take jabs at everyone

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 8:06 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hope Al would put this at the top of the hall of fame list

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 12:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Plenty of other Cubs blogs on the Internet.

Try Google.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on May 1, 2009 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see anything wrong with this post

It’s a rebuttal to last night’s post and IMO, a very good one.

Anybody who looks at Lee and doesn’t see a player in decline is wearing some major “Cubbie colored glasses”.

by bluekoolaide on Apr 30, 2009 11:54 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't see anything wrong with this post

It’s a rebuttal to last night’s post and IMO, a very good one.

Anybody who looks at Lee and doesn’t see a player in decline is wearing some major “Cubbie colored glasses”.

by bluekoolaide on Apr 30, 2009 11:58 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm glad you said it twice

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 12:38 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Damn is this a great post......

I see DGU didn’t show his/her face.

Most of all I LOVE this:
Every time someone states an opinion that another person doesn’t like, the aggrieved person hysterically demands that you “prove it statistically.” Guess what stats geeks? Baseball is not 100% defined through statistics.

And your read on Lee is DEAD on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 12:32 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

This comment is crap.

The fanpost was at 10 PM and you say at 12:30:

I see DGU didn’t show his/her face.

2 1/2 hours later, in the middle of the night??? And you think that is “being told”?
What a load of garbage. Because someone isn’t living on a weblog, their argument is invalid? Or they are a coward? What else could anyone infer from your comment?

Why the hell can’t you take an opposing view without blasting someone else? This is what BCB is becoming — let’s all take sides and rip on the other side — the cheaper the shot the better.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on May 1, 2009 7:00 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Still no DGU

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are you going to send him to detention?

Seriously, grow up.

I’m not here to fight anyone’s battles and I probably could have expressed myself in a less aggressive tone, but this is totally uncalled for.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on May 1, 2009 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll drop it..........

but I’ve been called out before and no one came to my defense. Let’s all be fair moving forward.

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sometimes, you know,

there’s real life to attend to.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 4, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

12:30 am. is no more in the mi9ddle of the night than your 7:00 am. post

sorry for the late post but I was at the Cub’s debacle and have an hour & 1/2 drive home

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You know what?

Shanghai Badger is right. Your “calling out” of DGU for “not showing up” two hours after a late-night post was completely uncalled for. I advise you to drop this right now.

There’s no reason this post can’t be discussed civilly, like the other one. You’re not helping.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on May 1, 2009 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll drop it Al.............

but do the same for me when I am PERSONALLY attacked by a poster no matter whom that may be.

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 9:23 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I did not attack you

I attacked your post — and I acknowledged that I could have done so in a less aggressive tone. I will be more careful in the future.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on May 1, 2009 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wasn't talking about you..........

I have been personally attacked in the PAST and no one including Al came to my defense.

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 9:27 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Devil's advocate

Al can’t read every comment posted, but he reads his e-mail. You should let him know if that is happening.

You’ve attacked others, too, then gone back and said you were kidding – perhaps the person/people that went after you were doing the same?

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on May 1, 2009 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks you........

I’ll do that

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you remember I DID say I was kidding..........

but I also APOLOGIZED

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Guess what, if you weren't so aggressive with your posts

people wouldn’t be so eagar to attack you. I just met your online presence today and I think maybe in a game thread once, and I seem to mostly get that you are very agressive with your posting. That’s your choice, but don’t expect people to defend you if you act like that.

by adam316 on May 1, 2009 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for your advice, but...........

being aggressive shouldn’t warrant personal attacks

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

you can't have it both ways.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 1, 2009 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's just sad

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

sad that you can't have it both ways?

I suppose. Never the less, that’s the facts. You cannot be aggressive and in people’s faces, and then complain when you get smacked back.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 1, 2009 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't mind my post being smacked.........

it’s when they get personal that’s uncalled for.

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here's the thing, though

The comments about DGU were borderline personal — whether they were meant to be or not. That’s just one example that is convenient because it’s recent, and well, in this thread.

What Adam and Drew are telling you is, you’re reaping what you’ve sown.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on May 1, 2009 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

where is he by the way?

I’d love to here from him

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

he's not

at your beck and call.

You’re doing it again.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 1, 2009 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow.

Just, wow.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on May 1, 2009 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

So namby pambies............

are respected and someone who aggressively states his/her opinion should be personally attacked? What a crock.

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't say that.

but when you aggressively state your opinion, you should expect to be aggressively questioned about it.

I’m not the one complaining about being personally attacked. Your demeanor has an effect. You made some pretty tasteless comments that were not substantively related to the Cubs, but to people on this board, and you got smacked back for it. Deal with it, and move on.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 1, 2009 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Waaa waaa waaa crybaby and tattle-tale.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on May 1, 2009 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh please

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 9:27 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, that was indeed unwarranted.

Let’s all grow up, shall we?

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on May 1, 2009 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Al, it feels like daycare in here or something doesn't it?

When I would assume the vast majority of posters here are adults, and most have probably been adults for many years now.

by adam316 on May 1, 2009 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

prove it isn't

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

you can't prove a negative.

support the assertion, or don’t make it.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 1, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

you can't prove a negative or a positive opinion........

with past stats. Only time will tell who is right or wrong

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ya know

I couldn’t care any less who is right or who is wrong. I just would like to see the team win games. If you’re more worried about being right, then go ahead and root for Lee to fail just so you can say I told you so.

by tizzle on May 1, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

TWSS

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

why should i simply re-state what vivaelpujols,

and our favorite major league scout, mutleyil, have already done. the facts are there.

by aramis on May 1, 2009 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

major league scout?

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!

by tizzle on May 1, 2009 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

A few issues with your post

the following statement is a POOR EXAMPLE OF AN OPENING LINE TO A POST seeing as it was not a poor example. it was actually a classic example of using supporting data to your point.

A previous post arguing that Derrek Lee was not declining was a poor example of statistical analysis…

another thing that is wrong is your statement

I love Derrek Lee’s defense
where if you read the other posts about Lee, vivaelpujols provided the back up showing the decline in his defense.

the general post was not bad, but i believe DGU did a beter job in presenting his post, mainly cuz not once did he try to throw a jab at anyone (directly or indirectly) which you do more than once. If you asked me, you wrote this post more in spite than to create a good debate, or discussion.

and why did you feel the need to say this, and since you mentioned it what is your capacity in MLB

As someone that’s been involved in baseball for my entire life, I can tell you this from a scouting perspective:

this would have been better as either a comment to the Post about the myth in decline, or possibbe a perfect POint/Counterpoint post. throw the stats out, and you lose since you did not present the argument as well.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 8:03 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

very well said

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And it's amazing how the "fanpost police" scatter when...........

a well documented rebuttal “to one of their own” like this is posted

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here is an example of a good thread.

http://www.abrahamslady.com/items/LinenThreadLg.jpg

It is triple braided and stretched with precise torque for a consistent quality that holds up to WW2 military standards. Which means you can trust EVERY GOD DAMN THREAD to hold up in even the most rugged situations.

by adam316 on May 1, 2009 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is getting old

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

it's humorous once, maybe twice...........

but it gets stale after that

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just Curious

Who did this before? It certainly wasn’t me. Dammit I thought I was being original.

by adam316 on May 1, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

are you being

a thread policeman? Really?

Once again, you can’t have it both ways.

A better starting sentence to this entry would be “I believe that I have a better interpretation of DLee’s statistics.”

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 1, 2009 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

And on the sixth day, God created Joakim Noah...

by TheTruth11 on May 1, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

you skipped everything

and discussed ONLY my last sentence, which was my opinion only. I said this would have been better, i never said it should not be a seperate post.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ummm...

No I didn’t. Your entire post was a critique of his post… not the content of his post, but it’s worthiness…

-the following statement is a POOR EXAMPLE OF AN OPENING LINE TO A POST
-the general post was not bad, but i believe DGU did a beter job in presenting his post
-If you asked me, you wrote this post more in spite than to create a good debate, or discussion.

Guess what? No one gives a shit if you believe someone did a better job of “presenting” (what is this, cooking school?) his post.

by kanderber on May 1, 2009 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

actually

I also pointed out where this post was incorrect and directly contracicts his own opinion.

The poster takes more jabs instead of posting supporting information.

The poster makes a statement about his scouting background, without providing any evidence of that.

I did discuss the post itself, and showed where evidence was dismissed.

And anyone who wants to write a Post should care how its presentation is percieved, since how they present their opinion is going to help support it in the eyes of a reader.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

*Sigh*

You just don’t get it.

by kanderber on May 1, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I do get it

None of us are saying that the poster of this is uneducated, we are just asking what are the credentials he hints at are.

If a poster want to be taken serious, then leave the jabs out of it and post your opinion and your supporting facts to the argument. That is what allowed the other post to be a good discussion, instead of turn into "internet warfare"

My comments have been ripped in this post, for pointing out where the poster either went thin on supporting details, took jabs at people (indirectly), and where facts posted prior were ignored (mainly the fact the poster loves the defense of Lee when it has been posted he is closer to average than good with supporting facts).

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Other than him stating he has baseball/scouting experience

where are these deplorable jabs?

-He said he didn’t agree with the original statistical analysis.
-He made a comment about “stat geeks,” that didn’t seem malicious.

It seems like this particular post has deeply offended you, and I just don’t understand why. Did it come off a bit “holier than thou?” Maybe a tad. Still, don’t know if it warrants all this backlash.

And on the sixth day, God created Joakim Noah...

by TheTruth11 on May 1, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

the tone of the post

and the statement he opens with calling DGUs post POOR USE OF STATS, which it was not.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

inaddition

DGU had a lot more details backing up his opinion on Lee, where this post is more opinoin than evidence.

There is nothing wrong with it being opinion, but when your backing up opinioin with a statement about

“As someone that’s been involved in baseball for my entire life, I can tell you this from a scouting perspective”
you need to explain where this comes from. do you coach little league, did you scout the tball hitters to prepare for the next levels draft, are you a scout for the Yankees, where does this come from? There is nothing wrong with asking the poster to explain this, otherwise for all I know it is how he was able to scout for MLB3K on PS2 one time (not suggesting that is what he is meaning). That statement suggests that he knows more and is above us in knowledge, which might be true, but the poster needs to explain that statement to give it credability.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

give it up Tim

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

maybe

he can’t spell.

by tizzle on May 1, 2009 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's it, thanks

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

i am jsut asking his credentials

since he has a better insight from a scouts vantage point and has been in baseball all his life. I dont think that is asking too much, since he threw it out there.

and even if he does have a scouts vantage point, scouts are not perfect, otherwise there would not be a bust in a draft taken in the early rounds (for any sport), nor would there be bad FA signings, etc.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

fot the umpteenth time you ask

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here's the problem with an anonymous forum, Tim

I could claim to be Bud Selig and then what? Could you disprove me or could I prove it? That’s why I give little weight to all the scouting reports given by fans on here. Most of us are just seeing what we’ve already concluded about a player.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 4, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Against my better judgement, I'm going to try once more

You’re coming across as snarky. Maybe for a while, you should let arguments like this go.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on May 1, 2009 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

according to CLutche

you are incorrect sayign this

Other than him stating he has baseball/scouting experience

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's not worth it . . .

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on May 1, 2009 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

true

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

right on the money

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

+100 I can hardly read this site and as a big fan I'm looking for analysis and discussion.

Instead, most threads read like a war of words between Middle Schoolers on MySpace.

Or Facebook.

Or Twitter. Whatever.

very little analysis and a lot of infighting.
And CUBS fans! who would have guessed?

I keep coming back and trying—even had a FanPost in mind. But is it worth it?

by Realist Larry on May 1, 2009 10:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

mutleyil, are you a professional baseball scout?

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on May 1, 2009 9:12 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

difference

mutleyil said

As someone that’s been involved in baseball for my entire life, I can tell you this from a scouting perspective

which is saying that he is involved in MLB in scouting at some level, so we are asking what exactly he does to give credability to that comment

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

DGU didn't claim to be...

…but it appears mutleyil is. DGU composed a well-written Fanpost backed by statistical (i.e., factual) analysis. You’ll forgive me if I have a hard time accepting a scouting report from some random poster on the Internet who, quite frankly, seems quite emotionally charged about this issue. And calling people “geeks” and “fools” doesn’t exactly help his case.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on May 1, 2009 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Did you not see the stats he posted?

Maybe you and cubbie-tim should visit the same eye doctor.

by aramis on May 1, 2009 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I take it you have decided to not read what i write

and just jump in.

I believe Lee is declining at an accellerated rate, adn have said so before. I have said I believe Lee is injured more than he is letting on to, and needs to sit for an extended amount of time.

My entire problem with this post is that the poster says things without backing them up, and has stated he is above us with scouting (leading us to believe he is a professional scout, without giving ANY evidence). The tone of the poster is more of a screw you than here are the facts to back up my opinion.

Before you comment about me, make sure you are not making incorrect statements, as you look foolish for doing so.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

haha sorry tim

i was relating this to last nights game thread, and our argument about theriot.

by aramis on May 1, 2009 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Regarding Theriot

he is not Lee,and I have the stats to show he is not Lee

:=)

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's a data dump, not statistical analysis.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on May 1, 2009 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If he isn't he should be

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 9:20 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Based on what?

This Fanpost?

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on May 1, 2009 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 4, 2009 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

hehe

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 4, 2009 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Does that count?

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on May 1, 2009 9:26 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

one of many poor comedians

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

relax

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on May 1, 2009 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't keep score

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't keep score

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 9:28 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It's tough to sometimes accept difficult facts

about players we admire.

I gaurantee that if BCB had been around in the late 60’s, we’d be having this exact same debate about Ernie Banks.

If it was 1996, it would be Ryne Sandberg…etc.

by bluekoolaide on May 1, 2009 9:48 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

this is the sad thing

I do not like this post, since the author takes jabs, and makes statements about how he is in scouting (or soit seems) with baseball (without any proof or giving any credentials), and it is not as well written as DGU’s. I am one who supports that Lee is in decline, but this post is not as well written as DGU’s was (with more facts, more stats, and a better writen argument based on his opinion). I also believe vivaelpujols’ comments made a better argument in favor of the decline in that same post then this one does.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on May 1, 2009 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

More facts, more stats?

They are both excellent posts, but mutleyil’s does not group years of stats together which is a much fairer way of supporting his argument.

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was tough for me to accept

that Moises Alou was done in 2003, that Fukudome was done in 2008, that Kerry Wood’s career was over in 2006…

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 4, 2009 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jeez.................

I won’t take part in the “post police” annlysis, but the bottom line seems to be correct- the Cubs have a developing problem at first base and in the middle of the line up. I think DLee is a great guy, has been a warrior, but I just don’t see him pulling out of this funk that he’s been in.

Doubtless he’ll improve on where he is right now, but not to where you’d like to see a #3 hitter or a first baseman- a supposedly offensive position. The sad thing is, with the no trade clause and the obvious degradation in skills, there is not much that can be done about it.

"I still don't know what happened"- Fergie Jenkins on '69

by tommy veryzer on May 1, 2009 10:32 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I do want to note one thing

I don’t think anyone has ever suggested that Lee should stay in the #3 hole. The only person keeping him there is Lou.

On the other hand, who would you move up there?

Also, I think it’s been pretty definitively proven that the lineup order doesn’t really matter that much.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 1, 2009 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just a guess

The Cubs could go Soriano, Theriot, Fukudome (hey, he’s hitting right now), Ramirez, Bradley, Lee, Fontenot, Soto.

Or you could flip Soto and Fontenot. Anyways, it’s a thought.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on May 1, 2009 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd have no problem with either of those lineups

If Lee needs to be moved, then move him. I’m just saying, no one’s insisted that he stay at #3. Heck, DL him, and play Hoffpauir for two weeks if that’s what it takes.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 1, 2009 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep.

(and I know you haven’t been advocating him to stay at No. 3).

And I’d suggest that the offensive problems haven’t been strictly Lee’s fault, either – if Soto was hitting, it would help immensely. Unfortunately, I think he and Lee are both candidates for the DL.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on May 1, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

there is plenty of blame to go around

for the offense, from slow starts, to inabuility to execute a bunt, not moving runners up, there are a lot we could all point to, and many players who share the blame.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep.

The good news in all this is that the Cubs have found a way to go 10-11 when playing their worst baseball (so far) of the season over the last 2 weeks. It’s bound to pick up – I don’t think Lee and Soto will hit worse than Mario Mendoza for the season.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on May 1, 2009 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

DL them both. We have depth in both of those positions.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 1, 2009 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

alternatively, if they're healthy (relatively)

I can see Lou letting them hit their way out of slumps. Sometimes, the DL trip can hurt the offense, as the player’s timing will be off even more once they return.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on May 1, 2009 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

well

today showed that they both are finding their way back into the groove. Therefore, I retract the DL comment at the moment.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 1, 2009 8:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

good point about the over reliance on stats

I was going to do a post about some fans and their obsession with some stats. Does that really tell the story about a player, especially our number 3 hitter. The cubs led the league in OBP last year and our best hitter(#3 hitter) drove in 90 runs. Not very clutch. How about OPS with risp(788) or OPS risp w/2 outs(672) or bases loaded OPS (504) or even late inning pressure(818). Which one of the stats from either DGU’s , vivaelpujols mutleyil or mine truly measures Lee’s worth. (all these stats are 2008)

I did this research only to prove what I knew from watching the games. That DLee is declining and we need to face this fact. And I do think we can/should trade him now. Just hopefully Lou can actually be the manager of the team, move him down in the order and give him a day off every week.

by KaliCub on May 1, 2009 11:27 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree, but the debate about Lee's decline will continue until.........

his performance, or lack thereof, is in the books come July

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

as I noted before I hope he is injured

not wishing an injury on him if he isnt, dont mix the two.

if he is NOT injured right now, we are in trouble, if he is injured it explains a lot.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stats are the factual results of what happened on the field of play.

So, to answer your question: Yes, they do tell the story (of a player’s performance). All those numbers you cited are based on small sample sizes. (Example: 2008, 2 outs RISP OPS: 49 ABs). I’ve gotten burned on this myself.

Again, no offense, but I don’t trust my own eyes, much less yours.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on May 1, 2009 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The key word here is "HAPPENED", and "they do tell the story (of a players PAST performance)"

they do tell the story (of a players PAST performance).

Lee’s future performance will be the only true measure of his decline.

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, yeah...

…“past performance is no guarantee of future results” and all that.

Here’s another cliche: “Those who ignore the past are doomed to repeat it have an uninformed perception of who their first baseman is.”

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on May 1, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

"past performance is no guarantee of future results"

Stop quoting me about something I didn’t say.

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

"past performance is no guarantee of future results"

is true.

stats can be a double edged sword, as they provide a basic idea of what to expect, but do not guarantee anything.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It may be true and that's fine.............

but I didn’t say those words so I don’t want to be misquoted

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

im not quoting you or anyone else

I am just throwing my two cents in. about stats of the past and current time

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You didn't, but.......

dat cubfan daver misquoted me

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You didn't, but.......

dat cubfan daver misquoted me

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He wasn't quoting you!

Good lord, man, that’s a commonly used saying, so he used quotes.

Read your signature line, stop picking fights / being so thin skinned, and when you’re done with that, read your sig line again!

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on May 1, 2009 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

So I'm suppose to read his mind?

quotations are quotations

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, you're supposed to be reasonable and not looking for a fight

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on May 1, 2009 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not, so you can relax and stay out of it

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

coulda fooled me.

you even carried this over to the game thread. You’re being snarky and you’ve got a chip on your shoulder a mile wide.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 1, 2009 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Clutche, buddy, dude...

…I wasn’t quoting you. Are you telling me you’ve never heard that expression before?

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on May 1, 2009 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

seriously, I didn't catch that

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

my point was a generic OPS stat

Did he achieve those numbers when no one was on base or the game was out of reach one way or the other? Some stats are misleading.

Would you rather have a player that gets 2 doubles with the bases empty and strikes out late in the game or another player that gets only one single with 2 outs in the bottom of the seventh with RISP. Especially our #3 hitter.

by KaliCub on May 1, 2009 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

rec'd & agreed

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd rather have a player who hits two doubles a game on a regular basis. Period.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on May 1, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It has pretty much been proven that situational hitting isn't a skill

Meaning that over a large sample size, a hitter will hit just as well with RISP, than he will with no one on.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 2, 2009 12:21 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Those stats don't reflect skill

they reflect small sample size.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 4, 2009 11:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wholeheartedly agree that the bat speed is not there.

But is it gone forever? Doubtful. To use an example, I believe it was Barry Bonds who experienced a career rebirth after getting stronger and switching to a lighter bat. And don’t take that to mean it takes BALCO to work on a bat speed problem.

by Jerry Mumphrey on May 1, 2009 11:43 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

He has lost bat speed, no doubt

I see a lot of pitches that he used to drive, but now he fouls them off or drives them to right. Especially the pitch around his knees, maybe a little lower. He used to put balls like that in the outfield seats.

I keep advocating for a shorter bat and crowding the plate. He could start turning on balls, and he would regain that tiny bit of bat speed that he’s lost.

I also wonder if maybe that little foot stomp he does puts him just a little bit behind.

by dr stabbingworth on May 1, 2009 9:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

At what point does...

Derrek realize that he’s an awful hitter right now, and go to Lou and tell him that he should be moved down (like Sammy did with Dusty back in ’04).

by kanderber on May 1, 2009 12:39 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

How does one deal with death?

Denial, Anger, Acceptance……..Lee is in the first stage

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's not his job!

Lou should have sole authority over the team!

I think Lee should be moved down (even though I expect him to bounce back a bit) but that’s not his responsibility.

I wouldn’t mind seeing…

Soriano
Fukodome
Ramirez
Bradley
Lee
Font
Soto
Theriot

I would also switch Soto with Lee if Soto recovers.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on May 1, 2009 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who said anything about who's job it is?

Who cares if it is or isn’t his responsibility?

My point was that I would like to see him approach Lou about it, since Lou seems to be fine with putting him in the 3 or 4 slot every day.

by kanderber on May 1, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lee is not the manager who makes the line up

Lou is, that is why it is Lou’s job to do so, not Lee’s job to come ask to be dropped in the line up.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

i agree

but it is not Lee’s job to do so.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ya think?

Is it really that hard to follow what I’m saying?

by kanderber on May 1, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What, then,

is Lou’s job?

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on May 1, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Please...

go read my original post again. I don’t think you’re following what I’m saying, at all.

by kanderber on May 1, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I read it. Still...

Why should Lee have to go to Lou?

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on May 1, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because Lou is clearly not going to go to Derrek...

Remember in 2004 when everyone was clamoring for Dusty to move Sammy down? Dusty wouldn’t do it. So eventually Sammy went to him and said “I think you should move me down for the better of the team.” That’s all I’m asking for.

by kanderber on May 1, 2009 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kudos to Al........

I’m glad to see this post made the “recommended fanposts” hall of fame

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 1:06 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Al...

doesn’t dictate what posts get recommended. Posters do. Now Al can recommend as well, but I believe it takes 4-5 recs to get moved up.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on May 1, 2009 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Face Palm

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on May 1, 2009 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

this is the intarwebz

do you know it?

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 1, 2009 8:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

thanks

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 1:45 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Play the ball, not the man...

This is my favorite Internet posting rule from another forum I frequent. If you ever disagree with a post there, it’s OK, just say why. That’s why we’re all there…to share our opinions and civilly debate when we disagree. Personally attacking someone or their credibility is the fastest way to get shown the door. I think it would be a very good idea to implement that rule here.

For the record:

I went through several months of extensive statistical training and testing for my job. Grouping several years of data together in a subjective way to make the results fit what you want is a perfect example of introducing bias into statistical analysis. I simply wanted to point this out, and show that looking at the year over year numbers paints a very different picture. Clear declines in BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+ for the last 2+ full seasons of an 8 season sample size would be considered a significant trend in statistical circles…not a mirage.

I am NOT a MLB scout, and guess what…who cares? I’m also not a certified mechanic, but I can fix my own car. I don’t have a degree in Food Science, but I can grow my own vegetable garden and cook my own food. I’ve played, coached, and watched baseball since I was 5 years old. I should have used the term "visual perspective" instead of "scouting perspective" to avoid the snarky comments. The bottom line is this…I can tell when a player doesn’t look right, and DLee’s approach and results haven’t consistently looked the same since he messed up his wrist. You don’t have to work for a Major League team to offer this opinion. If you agree with my take, fine. If you don’t, that’s fine too, just say why. Putting up a dozen posts questioning my right or credentials to offer this opinion doesn’t seem like a good use of time or blog space. Especially when no statistical or "visual" opinions to the contrary are cited.

If you don’t like the format or the tone of the post, there’s not much I can do about that as it’s your subjective opinion about posting structure. It was posted in the interest of objective analysis, and I commented very early that if Al felt it was redundant, he could do whatever he liked with it. Since he has not removed or merged it, I take it that I violated no protocol. I didn’t call out anyone specific. I made nothing but general statements, and some readers have apparently ascribed these to specific people. I played the ball, not the man. Now I hope everyone that reads this will do the same.

"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"

by mutleyil on May 1, 2009 2:37 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

You've got my vote

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Beware....

Cubbie-Tim will probably ask for your credentials

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

he explain his lack of Scouting credentials

and explained how it was, as expected, his interpetation and opinion

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

you satisfied now?

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I only asked it numerous times, cuz people wanted to jump on me for asking.

and I explained why I asked. His words were misleading, and that is no ones fault but his own.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think he was misleading at all

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can tell you this from a scouting perspective

is misleading, unless he is a scout.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bull

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Last try

Ignore me if you will.

Either let this go, or stop wondering why people are “attacking” you / finding you abrasive.

My $0.02. Do with it what you will.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on May 1, 2009 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It mystifies me why you don't have the same conversation with....

Cubbie-Tim. He called mutleyil out several times for credentials and you daon’t say a thing. Be fair and unbiased and I’ll listen.

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

you don't get it.

mutleyil specifically said “As someone that’s been involved in baseball for my entire life, I can tell you this from a scouting perspective:”

That screams "I am a professional. Now, I realize that you don’t recognize stuff sometimes, but it was perfectly fair to ask for credentials when someone says something like that.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 1, 2009 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Two things

1 — I did
2 — Your advice up above to tell me to “stay out of it” is incredibly sanctimonious. I give up, you’re on your own.

You remind me of a childhood friend of mine, whose father once said, “All my kids are the same. They stand out in the rain and say, ‘Why am I getting wet.’”

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on May 1, 2009 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

thanks for clearing that up.

and for the record, I am sure many here have to analyze data in their careers as well. I took multiple courses on stats and I work in Credit and Collections, where I have to use various stats to determine the credit to issue a company, what the odds of being paid for deliquencies are, etc.

Does that mean I can see it less than you do (as you suggested), no. It just means we (all of us) make different opinions based on

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Neither one of us is "right" or "wrong"

Visual evidence and stats can be manipulated by anyone to say whatever they want. That is the issue I had with the other post, and why I posted this.

I don’t mind at all if you disagree with what I’ve presented, I just ask that you explain why instead of attacking my credibility. Not being an MLB scout doesn’t mean my analysis is invalid…

"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"

by mutleyil on May 1, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

i was not attacking

I was asking, if you want to make a statement as misleading as that was, you are damn right I will ask about it. More than just me perceived it to be a lot more than it was, based on how you worded it.

Funny is I agree he is declining, but did not agree with how you worded your post.

oh well, water under the bridge, people will not agree 100% no matter what

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 1, 2009 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

you were attacking

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yikes

If you believe visual evidence and stats can be manipulated by anyone to say whatever they want then I do not believe you actually understand statistical analysis. My guess is that you didn’t really mean to say that. It is more that anyone can find or create a stat to support their position. But people who understand statistical analysis can tell the b.s. stats from the real ones, so long as we have access to the raw data.

Overall, I agree with your analyis of DLee, by the way.

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by zambranofan on May 1, 2009 10:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You probably won't get much of a response..............

because the “fanpost police” attack then scatter …..

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 1, 2009 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I asked the question because...

…quite simply, I don’t trust my own eyes, so I hope you won’t be offended if I don’t trust yours. If you were a trained, experienced professional, I might soften that stance a little bit.

That said, I do wholly agree that you have every right to offer this opinion. And, in closing, I would note that plenty of “statistical or ‘visual’ opinions to the contrary” are indeed noted – in the other, previously established thread on this topic.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on May 1, 2009 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dear SBN:

I wish I could un-recommend posts. My non-approval of a post should count as much as an approval. Please, for the umpteenth time, add this feature. Recommendations are worthless without their counterpart.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on May 1, 2009 3:03 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Derrick Lee declining

I agree, you are 100 peercent correct. There comes a time to admit your not the player you once were. He is a very good 5 0r 6 hitter. He still has a great gove.

by Papa zoo zoo on May 1, 2009 3:18 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I believe it's a goden gove

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on May 1, 2009 9:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sigh

i love the debate and appreciate hearing both sides of the argument but some of these threads are getting exhausting to read.

by hoppy91 on May 1, 2009 8:42 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

How can you start off a post with

“A previous post arguing that Derrek Lee was not declining was a poor example of statistical analysis…” and then only use a player’ slash line and a supposed scouting background to prove a point?
DGU used stats just as effectively, if not more, than this poster. I argued with DGU, using other stats, but DGU argued his point effectively.
Coming out and degrading one poster while doing a worse job is a pretty dumb move.

by dakoose on May 1, 2009 8:53 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't know why, but reading all of these posts makes me think of

A quote from The Restaurant at the End of the Universe:

“POPULATION [of the universe]: None. It is known that there are an infinite number of worlds but that not every one is inhabited. Therefore there must be a finite number of inhabited worlds. Any finite number divided by infinity is as near to nothing as makes no odds. So, if every planet in the universe has a population of zero, then the entire population of the universe must also be zero, and any people you may actually meet from time to time are merely the products of a deranged imagination.”

I’m just tired of my deranged imagination having all of these repetitive arguments.

by chitownhawkeye on May 1, 2009 9:32 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow…just wow.
I’ve only posted on here a few times but looking through this thread is pretty off putting.

Anyways Derek Lee clearly is in decline(And I dont think anyone can disagree with that)but he most definately is still a useful player.

by Ohpityme on May 2, 2009 6:04 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well thought out and stated

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on May 3, 2009 8:02 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great post......quetion

do you agree that both posters used Lee’s stats differently to get results that support a pre-determined viewpoint?

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 3, 2009 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

question

If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.

by Clutche on May 3, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

obviously

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 3, 2009 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can't speak to their motivations...

And I can’t really know if either started with a determination and then worked backward. I’d prefer to be charitable (and think it’s probably more accurate anyway) to say that each looked at a set of statistics that they found meaningful, and then made a determination for their viewpoint based off what they saw in those statistics.

I think (outside of political folk) most people try to approach things in a way where they at least intend on being objective and open-minded (and think they are).

by CubsWin!Oregon on May 3, 2009 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd guess that the posters had a predetermined viewpoint...

and used these statistics that back up their point. Of course, it could be argued their original opinions were driven in part by factors that generated the data they then use, which muddies the waters a bit. But I think you’re being polite here in assuming that these were truly scientific analyses.

I think there are some flaws in both approaches. The first one sort of glosses over the LD% and GB% concerns over the past two years (and the possibility that those numbers are due to a changing approach due to declining skills) and concludes that Lee is not in decline based largely on the OPS numbers. The second cherry picks a bit, conveniently using a starting point that almost certainly should be considered an outlier.

by SouthernCub on May 4, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you're right on.

:) I figured it’s better to error on the side of risking being too polite (at the least, it makes for more friendly conversation, especially since BCB has issues with people challenging the integrity of other posters far too often).

by CubsWin!Oregon on May 4, 2009 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

that was great! rec'd

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 3, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rec'd

And I think you have hit upon the crucial dividing issue between my post and this post. He has complained about my grouping of the pre-2005 stats and the post-2005 stats. My assumption was the 2005 was an outlier and my sense is that 2005 skews our perspective on what kind of hitter Derrek Lee is likely to be year to year.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 4, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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