2009 Major League Baseball Predictions
by Al Yellon on Apr 5, 2009 7:00 AM CDT
in Chicago Cubs News
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PrintToday I will join thousands of other bloggers, websites, pundits, etc. in making my so-called "expert" predictions for the upcoming season. If you have been here for the last four years, you'll find this prediction format familiar -- and yes, you'll find most of this text familiar too (copy/paste being a useful tool). For those of you new to BCB, read on.
I started this format about seventeen years ago, when I was passing out my annual predictions to any of my friends who were willing to read them either with or without scoffing, because I found it both more interesting and challenging to do than traditional predictions. Even more so, if you're here I don't need to insult your intelligence by telling you who the ballclubs' best hitters, pitchers, etc. are. You already know. Instead, you'll find a pithy word or phrase describing the hitting, pitching, defense and intangibles of the thirty contenders for October glory.
I'm also not going to "predict" award winners. How hard would it be for me to sit here clacking away on a keyboard and be master-of-the-obvious by telling you that Albert Pujols is the best player in the NL and that CC Sabathia is the best pitcher in the AL? Could David Price be AL Rookie of the Year? Sure, but he'd have to be recalled from the minors first. Similarly, maybe someone like Andrew McCutchen could come up after Opening Day, like Ryan Braun did in 2007, and win the NL ROY award. Further, awards and league leaders often come out of nowhere. Just before the 2008 season, who'd have predicted that Chipper Jones would hit .364 and lead the NL? Or that Cliff Lee would lead the AL with 22 wins? Nobody, that's who.
And in any case, anyone using the search function here can come back here in October and tell me how wrong I was. Incidentally, to pat myself on the back a little bit, I got all four NL playoff teams right in 2008. Unfortunately, I then picked the wrong winners of both division series. Seriously. Go look.
And then, come back and read this year's picks (some of which, you already know from my previews of the Cubs' opponents), below the fold:
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST 1) NEW YORK METS Hitting: Outstanding Pitching: Suddenly solid Defense: Excellent Intangibles: Determined to make up for the last two years 2) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Wild Card) Hitting: A bit worrisome Pitching: Will Hamels stay healthy? Defense: Pat the Bat no longer in the field. Good! Intangibles: No WS champion has repeated since 2000 3) ATLANTA BRAVES Hitting: Young Pitching: Really, Tom. Retire. Really. Defense: Better than you'd think Intangibles: Bobby Cox 4) FLORIDA MARLINS Hitting: Powerful Pitching: Even younger than usual Defense: Good Intangibles: Too many good teams in this division 5) WASHINGTON NATIONALS Hitting: Who ARE these guys? Pitching: Remember this name: Shairon Martis Defense: That's a big ballpark you have there, Adam Dunn Intangibles: Lots of great seats available! C'mon down! NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL 1) CHICAGO CUBS Hitting: Very, very lefthanded Pitching: Get to the 8th inning and you're fine Defense: Some good... some not so good Intangibles: The pressure of trying to win even one playoff game 2) MILWAUKEE BREWERS Hitting: Lots of home runs! Fun! Pitching: Gallardo and... ? Defense: Still their Achilles heel Intangibles: Pressure of trying to top last year 3) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS Hitting: Powerful Pitching: All rests on Chris Carpenter's arm Defense: Good Intangibles: Somehow, manage to contend every year 4) CINCINNATI REDS Hitting: Power-laden Pitching: On a Dusty Baker team? C'mon. Defense: Good enough Intangibles: Dusty Baker 5) HOUSTON ASTROS Hitting: Lots of home runs! Fun! Pitching: Roy Oswalt and ... ? Defense: More than enough Intangibles: Might have the first manager firing in 2009 6) PITTSBURGH PIRATES Hitting: McLouth. McLouth. Did I mention McLouth? Pitching: Pitching? Who needs pitching? Defense: Good Intangibles: Might have the second manager firing in 2009 NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST 1) LOS ANGELES DODGERS Hitting: Unexpected Pitching: Injured Defense: Very good Intangibles: Joe Torre is a winner 2) COLORADO ROCKIES Hitting: Could be real good. Or not. Pitching: It's Coors Field. Does it matter? Defense: Excellent Intangibles: Best hitter might be Jason Marquis 3) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS Hitting: Maturing Pitching: Starters: sure. Relievers: not so much. Defense: Fair Intangibles: Could be a sleeper team 4) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS Hitting: Bad Pitching: Excellent Defense: Good enough Intangibles: They should have signed Manny 5) SAN DIEGO PADRES Hitting: Adrian Gonzalez Pitching: Suspect Defense: Poor Intangibles: Worst team in the NL AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST 1) BOSTON RED SOX Hitting: Balanced Pitching: Getting younger Defense: Suddenly solid Intangibles: Now have two competitors, not just one 2) TAMPA BAY RAYS (Wild Card) Hitting: Come at you several different ways Pitching: Young. And old. Defense: Outstanding Intangibles: Are they the 2009 version of the 2008 Rockies? 3) NEW YORK YANKEES Hitting: Cody Ransom. I mean, CODY RANSOM? Pitching: Apres CC, la deluge Defense: Mediocre Intangibles: Now have two competitors, not just one 4) TORONTO BLUE JAYS Hitting: Powerful if healthy Pitching: Closer controversy Defense: Acceptable Intangibles: Low expectations 5) BALTIMORE ORIOLES Hitting: Confused Pitching: Who ARE these guys? Defense: Does it really matter? Intangibles: Felix Pie, starting LF. Nuff said. AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL 1) CLEVELAND INDIANS Hitting: Maturing Pitching: Please stay healthy, Carl. Please. Defense: Excellent Intangibles: 43-28 after July 10, 2008 2) MINNESOTA TWINS Hitting: Will miss Mauer Pitching: Young, but deep Defense: Adequate Intangibles: Best manager in the AL 3) CHICAGO WHITE SOX Hitting: Old and young. Make up your mind, Ozzie! Pitching: 1 through 3 outstanding. 4 & 5 - not so much. Defense: Try not to look Intangibles: I didn't expect much last year and look what happened 4) KANSAS CITY ROYALS Hitting: Can sneak up on you Pitching: Interesting Defense: Acceptable Intangibles: Sleeper team in the AL 5) DETROIT TIGERS Hitting: Lots of home runs! Fun! Pitching: Lots of home runs! F -- oh, wait. Defense: Decent Intangibles: Leyland might quit in disgust. Been there, done that before. AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST 1) LOS ANGELES ANGELS Hitting: A little questionable Pitching: Excellent, as always Defense: Abre-OOPS! (Seriously, pretty good) Intangibles: Who else could win this division? No one 2) TEXAS RANGERS Hitting: Needs to be healthy Pitching: In that ballpark? C'mon. Defense: Better than expected Intangibles: Will have to score 900+ runs again to contend. 3) SEATTLE MARINERS Hitting: Ancient. (Get it? Ancient? Mariners? I crack myself up.) Pitching: The closer is David Aardsma. Nuff said. Defense: Ronny Cedeno. More than nuff said. Intangibles: Four ex-Cubs if you count Garrett Olson, who was a Cub for ten days in January 4) OAKLAND ATHLETICS Hitting: Ancient Pitching: Starting rotation in chaos just before Opening Day Defense: Poor Intangibles: Might be the worst team in the AL
NL: Cubs over Phillies, Mets over Dodgers; Cubs over Mets in NLCS
AL: Indians over Red Sox, Angels over Rays; Indians over Angels in ALCS
World Series: Cubs over Indians. Because, again this year, why would I pick the Cubs to make the postseason and NOT win it all... and, well -- it's time. Game 7 won at Wrigley Field when Milton Bradley hits a walkoff homer off... Kerry Wood.
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The Yankees, 3rd place?
That’s not going to happen.
Yankees/Indians/Angels/Red Sox
Mets/Cubs/Dodgers/Phillies
Also, the A's the "worst team in the AL"?
This doesn’t make any sense. Their position players are probably the best in that division, and they have a lot of young, talented starting pitching; albeit with a lot of question marks. They’re going to be the Angels’ only legitimate threat to take the West. The worst team in the AL is probably the Mariners or the Os. They’re both going to be really bad.
And AL champs: Yankees
NL Champs: Cubs
Cubs over Yanks in 6
Agreed
The As are a good ballclub with a lot of very impressive young pitching coming up thru the system. And they are asking veterans like Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera and Nomar Garciaparra to be one year complementary role players. The As will definitely score runs with that lineup. Eric Chavez finally coming back healthy at some point is key.
The A's may have...
… young pitching “coming through the system”. But that won’t translate to major league success this year.
I don’t think their offense is that good, either. Cabrera is in serious decline, Nomar is a backup and Giambi is 38.
And if you think Matt Holliday is going to be a stud for the A’s, check out his career numbers away from Coors Field: .280/.348/.455. That’s right, that’s an .803 OPS.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
The A's are not a good ballclub.
That’s insane.
Brian McRae's 5 o'clock shadow
by PurpleLineToWrigley on Apr 5, 2009 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions
It's not insane.
There’s a lot of talent on the A’s. It may not all translate this year, but it could.
Happy Opening Day!
by DGU on Apr 5, 2009 7:35 PM CDT up reply actions
I can't see it.
I saw the A’s play twice this spring and they’re awful. Giambi is old. Cabrera has declined four straight years. Nomar’s done. Holliday is an .800 OPS hitter outside of Coors. They have one starting pitcher.
I repeat: they’re awful.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Let's not go overboard bashing Holliday
No one expects him to be the big slugger he was with the help of Coors, but he’s been about a .860 OPS guy away from Coors the last few years. He should be able to be a solid, slightly above average, corner OF offensive player. As we saw with Soriano’s history, simply using former ballpark capability as a factor to judge a player in a new environment doesn’t offer a complete picture (many people thought Soriano would struggle badly when he went to Washington). I’m not predicting greatness, but Holliday should be solid. Good players adjust, and Holliday has a good offensive package. It may not show in the overall statistics, due to the ballpark (for example, Ellis is a solid hitter who looks bad in his overall line due to playing at that park). They aren’t really counting on Nomar, and Cabrera was added more for his defense and less for his bat. What they’ve managed to do is fix one of the big issues for the club last year, and that’s adding middle of the order pop. Whatever one thinks of Giambi, he still can hammer the ball. Won’t get you that nice and pretty average, but he’ll take pitches, get on base, and hammer the ball. Numbers won’t be as nice as they were in Yankees pinstripes due to stadium, but they should be fine. With Holliday/Cust/Giambi, they have some power that they had been sorely missing, partly due to Crosby flopping and Chavez’s struggles. While Crosby flopped as a starter, Bobby and Nomar should be nice bench depth. I’m not in love with what I assume is Buck as the leadoff man, but he could be alright.
A strong pen, along with what, on paper, looks like a solid defensive club is a good recipe to start with. I think the offense will be better than Al’s giving them credit for. Not great, but capable/solid. I remember last year when the Braves were the hot team out of spring. Short of it is, I take spring with a grain of salt. Everything comes down to their pitching, and I think the young arms are good enough to compete now in games, and in particularly, Anderson/Cahill. I know a lot of people questioned why Beane went after Wuertz and other pen arms (Someone posted how they thought the A’s pen was awful and hence, why Beane was making those moves, but I think the pen could be good, if not great), but I think he knew his gameplan going in – get the starters to go 5 or 6, and turn it over to the pen. They are in a division with one of the worst teams in the majors, and a team in Texas that is still trying to find pitching, and I think anywhere from 80-85 wins is possible for this club.
That said, I can see them struggling. If they can’t work out the top of the lineup (I mean, Buck had his issues last year, although I don’t remember the problems specifically), and if the SP falters, then sure, they could be a mess.
Tis the fun with predictions, as only time will tell.
I defnitely agree with Al regarding the Yankees.
They’ve shown in the last 9 years (since their last title in ‘00) that money doesn’t lead to success. Although many would say that they’d be able to make the playoffs with that team even if they weren’t going to go far in the playoffs (like they have in the past following Steinbrenner’s spending sprees), I’d have to disagree because they are in the hands down best division in Major League Baseball. The Red Sox are a dynasty and in my opinion, the Rays have the most chemistry in Major League Baseball.
"Chicago Cubs fans are ninety percent scar-tissue." -George F. Will
by In Piniella We Trustiella on Apr 5, 2009 8:21 AM CDT up reply actions
Money doesn't lead to success
but having Sabathia, Burnett, (healthy) Wang, (healthy) Chamberlain, Teixiera, Jeter, (healthy) Rodriguez, and Nady… does.
That, and having a core WAR of freakin’ 52.8 also helps. What a stupid discussion. This Yankees team might be one of their best teams in recent memory.
Thanks.
Hey, look — we disagree. That’s the fun of doing this. Maybe the Yankees will be the powerhouse they think they’ve bought. I say no, you say yes.
We find out starting tomorrow.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Yankees are loaded
Its fashionable to bash the Yankees and to wish ill will upon them. But they are my pick to win the World Series. For the 27th time. They are bursting with talent all over the place, and you just know the Yankees will be poised for mid-season acquisitions as the Steinbrenner boys try to win another title before George passes away soon.
George die???!!!
Nah… his boys will stick his head in a glass bucket like in Futurama…
George will be running the Yanks til the the end of time… lol
- Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
- Germans?
- Forget it, he's rolling.
that and they spent $250M on Texeria and CC
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
We agree on the NL, at least.
The Yankees could very easily win more than 90 games and finish third again. That’s a very tough division.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I think Al is hitting it on the head there
Not too many people are bold enough to make that prediction, but 2 teams competing with the Yankees rather then one doubles the amount of high intense high pressure situations you put this multi millionaires through.. new park, A-Roid scandels, high expectations for every new player on the team.. it might catch up to them.. but I expect Texiera to lead the league in HRs
Don't assault me and I won't assault you, because you don't know what I will, or won't, do. I'm going to end it with that. - Milton Bradley 2003 to Paul Lo Duca
by SouthsideCUBSfan on Apr 5, 2009 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions
it is possible
that the WC is not from the AL East with the three headed monste beating the crap out of each other
I still say MInn and Cle will make it with NY and LAA
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
Predictions
NL Central
1. Cubs
2. Reds
3. Cardinals
4. Pirates
5. Brewers
6. Astros
NL East … Mets
NL West … Dodgers
NL Wildcard … Diamondbacks
NL Pennant …. Mets
NL MVP …. David Wright
NL Cy Young …. Brandon Webb
AL East … Yankees
AL Central …. Tigers
AL West …. Angels
AL Wildcard … Rays
AL Pennant …. Yankees
AL MVP …. Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young …. James Shields
World Series …. Yankees over Mets
Sorry...
The Yankees always do well in the first year of buying frenzies.
AL:
Yankees
Indians
Rangers — Angels will fall apart hard
WC: Rays
NL:
Mets
Cubs
Dodgers
WC: Phillies
WS: Cubs over Rays
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
The Rangers will never have enough pitching in that park.
The Yankees have managed to spend their way into the playoffs before, true. But that was before the Rays were a force in that division.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Rangers
will win that division with 84 victories and then lose 3-0 to the Rays
The Rays won’t sneak up on anyone this year. They can’t or won’t counteract the inevitable trade deadline move by other teams. (And there could be an AMAZING amount of players out there this year)
They’ll be lucky to win the Wild Card. I picked them to run through the AL Playoffs out of charm and wishful thinking.
Be patient. The Yankees will fall apart again by 2011. But again, the always do well the year they go nuts on spending. The fans haven’t turned on the new guys yet and the new guys are trying to make a good impression.
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
Ah Yes
AL:
East: Red Sox
Central: Indians
West: Angels, becasue this is the worst division in baseball
WC: Yanks
AL Winner: Yanks
NL
East: Mets
Central: Cards
West: Giants
WC: Cubs
NL Winner: Cubs
Boths come out of the Wild card and the Cubs win in 7 over the Yanks, Dome gets his only hit in the Series off of Mariano to win it.
We all dream
"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"
Anyone read the ESPN predictions....
Pascarelli has the Cards winning it all (yes the World Series).
Someday we'll go all the way...
They are the hot "sleeper" team now
Since everyone woke up and realized that Dusty Baker is managing the Reds.
There is no such thing as an ugly female breast
Cardinals are going to score a lot of runs
And they have a potentially exceptional defense if 2nd base sorts itself out. It’s up to Dave Duncan to once again work miracles with that pitching, which on paper at least looks thin.
My predictions
AL East – 3 horse race.
1. Yankees
Arguably the best rotation in the game. Look, long run, I’ve got concerns about Sabathia’s arm, and general concerns on Burnett. But for 2009? Barring a freak injury, I think they’ll both be fine. Missing ARod will hurt, but they are a deeper team than before and Girardi knows how to manufacture runs. Their pen is underrated and Mariano still looks like he’ll be solid.
2. Red Sox
I am not a Daisuke fan due to the walks, but Beckett/Lester/Matsuzaka is an imposing trio, and they’ve got loads of pitching, veteran and young, behind. The pen should be solid, perhaps excellent, depending on if Saito is his former self. The offense is deep, and the bench looks good. On paper, there’s a lot of reasons to pick them ahead of the Yankees.
3. Rays
Very good rotation that should get better whenever they feel David Price’s changeup has improved enough. On paper, the pen looks okay, but I don’t love the age back there. Pat the Bat should be a big help to that lineup.
4. Blue Jays
If they Blue Jays firesale, then Baltimore may sneak ahead. This is a team that badly needs McGowan back to be the number 2 to Halladay’s ace. Look … this may seem ridiculous, BUT … if everything goes right for the Blue Jays, they can hang in this race longer than most think. By everything, that means their pitching holds until McGowan is ready and their bats are all going strong. I don’t see that happening. A bad start, and I see a midseason firesale and adios Ricciardi.
5. Orioles
Baltimore is looking to the future, as their arms are at least a year, if not 2, from producing. That said, the pen is solid and the offense is capable enough to perhaps spoil some teams season late in the year.
AL Central – Wild, wild west.
1. Kansas City Royals
Okay, I know I had the Twins here before, but I didn’t love the pick. Reason? They were balanced, but not really exceptional in any area. As noted, I think this will be a wild division, and the difference between 1-5 may not be much. But this team has the best rotation AND it may just have the best bullpen in the division despite the turnover. The defense should be much improved. As the Rays showed last year, strong pitching and good defense goes a long way. Add in a system that’s ready to offer some assets for help, and if one or two guys emerge offensively … I like their chances. I like Gordon and Butler to emerge, and while Jacobs sucks overall, he can pop a few homers.
2. Cleveland Indians
I’ll explain my reason for dropping the Twins below. There’s a lot to like about this Indians club, so I’ll list my concerns. Let’s start with that rotation. Can Cliff Lee maintain the top level control? I don’t buy it and expect quite a bit of regression. Carmona is still more upside than production. I think both Lee and Carmona can be solid, but I wouldn’t be surprised if their overall numbers were more mid-rotation starters than people are expecting. The rest of the rotation right now? Reyes/Lewis are eh, and Pavano is … well a ?. They do have the upside of Carmona/Reyes, and the return of Westbrook to look to. If the Royals bullpen isn’t the best in the division, then I’d probably go the Indians. The offense should be solid, although color me not sold that Shin-soo Choo is the next great hitter. Color me also not too sold that Pronk and VMart can return to their former selves. They do have a great system, with LaPorta waiting in the wings.
3. Minnesota Twins
The Mauer injury doesn’t bug me as much. Mauer just has to be good enough to swing the bat. The Baker injury is what made me think about this. Yes, I think they might be the most balanced team in the division, and without checking metrics, I’ve got to think their defense may be the best. But nothing’s exceptional, and everything rides on the pitching. Baker was basically their staff ace last year, and it’s hard for me not to see some regression from that Blackburn/Perkins/Slowey trio (not saying all three will regress, but just overall, I don’t expect that trio to be as good). The bullpen is decent, but that’s more because Joe Nathan is anchoring things. The system isn’t that strong in terms of being able to plug holes (particularly since their top upper level arms aren’t anything exceptional). the offense sill has questions on overall consistency.
4. Chicago White Sox
This is a team that’s hard for me to read. I think they have a decent duo headlining their rotation, but I wonder about Danks and an increased workload. I don’t love the rest of that rotation. The bullpen looks decent. The lineup has the potential to be good, but I could also see it go through cold spells. If they are close, the system is pumped up enough to perhaps help Kenny. If they are out of it, I could see them ship off an old vet or two and bring up some key youngsters and focus on 2010.
5. Detroit Tigers
I want to give myself a reason to move them up, I do. Just can’t find a reason. Verlander, I’m not too worried about. Rest of the rotation? Yes. What is Rick Porcello doing in the bigs right now? I am a huge Porcello fan … but geesh … now? I could see the bullpen being better than people expect, but it won’t be great. The lineup should be solid. The system is weak, though, so they’ll have a tough time making moves if they are close. A bad start, and Miguel Cabrera and others could get moved.
AL West
1. Angels
I want to give myself a reason to go with someone else, but I can’t. The Angels rotation isn’t that good – it really needs Ervin Santana to maintain his insane control last year to have a top level guy. I am a Lackey fan, but he’s always been more a 2/3. The bullpen should be fine, but Fuentes has gone through spells of erratic performance before (I forgot about the Fuentes signing in another post I made on the Angels). The lineup still has middle of the order questions, and the top of the lineup depends on Chone Figgins, and Chone Figgins only. The byproduct of Figgins as their only top of the order guy is that, their best power bat, Brandon Wood, might not get a full complement of AB’s this year. The system is a bit weaker than before. That said, they have enough pitching, solid pen, and if someone like Kendrick emerges, the offense could be humming.
2. Athletics
This is the hot pick for a sleeper team by many, but I just am not sure I buy all their pitching emerging. Let’s not kid ourselves, though – they’ve got loads of quality pitching, and if they do emerge, this will be an A’s team that could really shock a lot of people. Anderson/Cahill is an excellent young tandem. Beane has built a solid and deep pen to turn to, a pen that could be excellent. They should be solid defensively. No, Holliday won’t be the monster offensive player that he’s been in the past, but he should be a solid corner OF producer, and Giambi should help the middle of that lineup. If Beane is close, he may make a move or two from his loaded system to give them a better shot.
3. Rangers
I think they finally have things headed in the right direction, but will Jon Daniels have enough time? The system is excellent, and that’s what he’s looking forwards to, but his big league squad looks iffy. They’ll be their usual strong offensive selves, as Chris Davis could be a superb hitter, and Blalock may finally find home at DH. Add in Kinsler/Hamilton, and a useful bat in Murphy, along with Cruz’s raw ability, and the offense should be good and capable of carrying Andrus’ likely weak bat and perhaps going with Teagarden’s defense over Salty at some point. The bullpen looks passable. The rotation looks bleh. A lot of arms coming up to help with the rotation issue, but for 2009, it’s hard to have high expectations on their top young arms (notwithstanding the fact that few of their elite arms seem like possibilities to be ready this year). I do like McCarthy’s chances for a bounceback. I could see them in the 2nd spot.
4. Mariners
This is a team that, if all breaks right, could be passable, but in all likelihood, they’ll be in a full firesale mode come midseason. The rotation is the strength of this team, because if Bedard bounces back, they have an excellent 1-2 punch and enough on the back end. Bullpen has a chance to be decent, with Brandon Morrow taking over the closer’s job as they didn’t think he could start. The offense is bleh. It might have a flash or two, but it’s gonna be pretty bad. The system has some high level chips, particularly starting caliber arms, but it’s all at least a year away, if not 2. Jack Z looks to be building towards the future.
I’ll come back with the NL later, but AL playoff guess
Wildcard: Red Sox
Yankees over Royals; Red Sox over Angels
Yankees over Red Sox
by toonsterwu on Apr 5, 2009 9:23 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
My NL picks and my World Series matchup
NL East – I think this is a 3-horse race, but it could be 4.
1. Marlins
Color me a fool, then. I know I’ve received some, WTF are you thinking, on this, and maybe I end up dead wrong. I know, infield defense has to be a concern. But I see a team with the best rotation in the NL East, led by former Cubbie Ricky Nolasco. The pen has to sort itself out, and it may start slow, but there are options in the minors, such as Tucker/Ceda/West. I see an improved outfield defense. I am banking on Hermida rebounding, giving them a solid 3-5 in Hanley/Uggla/Hermida ( I know Cantu is anchoring the middle early on). They have one of the best systems in the game, so if they need to make a move, they have the capability, although they might supplement from within. What will be critical is whether or not they can have enough at the top of the order from Bonifacio. They wanted speed, and they got it in Emilio, and their defense should be improved, but can he get on base consistently to take advantage of said speed? There were positive signs this spring. Of course, the frustrating thing is that, like Cleveland, I wish they changed their defensive alignment, with Bonifacio at 2nd, Uggla at 3rd (in Cleveland, I wish Cabrera was at short, with Peralta at 3rd, and DeRosa at 2nd, particularly since Luis Valbuena is a 2nd base prospect who could be ready next year, thus able to slide in for Mark).
2. Mets
Sheffield is an intriguing signing. I thought they needed one more bat, but is he the answer? I don’t think he’s as bad as he looked last year, but I think his bat has slowed sufficiently to ask if he can still put up big numbers? It’s a solid rotation, but not a great one, as it’s basically Santana and three middle of the rotation arms. The bullpen should be better, but I wonder if it’ll be dominant, as KRod has been on a slight decline, and I don’t love their setup guys. That said, it should be solid. The offense is solid, and could be good. There is every reason to take them at number 1, as most are.
3. Phillies
As I’ve said before, I could see any of these three teams (Marlins/Mets/Phillies) winning it. The offense should be excellent as usual. The defense shouldn’t be any worse than before (Burrell was a pretty bad OF, as is Ibanez). So … why third? I don’t think anyone expects their pen to be as good as it was last year. I mean … it’s nothing against the pen, which should be one of the best in the league, but as good as last year? The biggest thing is this – they didn’t have a lot of injuries last year (at least, I don’t think so) and a lot went their way. The rotation needs Myers to be consistent, which I have my doubts about. Their system has improved, and they have two key assets in Donald and Carrasco that could offer help. That said, as noted, could easily see them winning the division.
4. Braves
A lot of love for this team right now, and I’m sort of perplexed. The rotation is solid – Lowe/Vazquez/Jurrjens is a solid trio. No ace, but it should perform. They’ve got enough back end arms. The bullpen and offense concern me. If healthy, the bullpen can be fine, if not good, as Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano have top stuff, but let me see Gonzalez/Soriano get through a year together healthy first. I just don’t see the offense, particularly if Chipper misses any time. Garrett Anderson, Jeff Francoeur, Casey Kotchman as the middle of the order threats besides Jones and McCann? ugh, even though I think Francoeur can perhaps have a decent year. Not impossible to see them contend for the playoffs if things go right, and hence why it could be a 4-horse race. Just not sold. The system is good, but few of the elite chips are likely to be offered.
5. Washington Nationals
Should be the worst team in the division, and perhaps the league, if not the entire majors. They are looking towards their 2 top 10 picks to refurbish a weak system. What’s there to look forward to, on paper, right now? Jordan Zimmerman and Shairon Martis are two solid young arms. I have concerns about the latter’s consistency, and hence why I prefer Zimmerman. The other Zimmerman is one of the more underrated players in the league, due to being on such a bad team. Elijah Dukes had an excellent partial season last year – if he keeps his head on straight, could he break out? Adam Dunn should hammer his usual homers. Like their neighbors in the AL East up the road, the Nationals won’t go anywhere, but they could spoil a team’s dreams in September.
NL Central – 1 to lead, 4 bunched together.
1. Cubs
Don’t see a need to go too much into this. This is the Cubs division to lose.
2. Cardinals
Okay, let’s look at the concerns first. The bullpen is iffy, the rotation has question marks. That said, they have one of the best pitching coaches in the game, and the talent is there on hand to fix the pen, and if Carpenter/Wainwright are solid, the rotation looks much, much better. The offense should be solid, and I expect a guy like Greene to really step forward. The system is much better than it was a year or two ago, and could provide two internal assets in Rasmus/Wallace. The domino effect that should worry Cubs fans is that it could allow the Cardinals to shop some big league talent for help come trade time, which will be a big asset.
3. Brewers
they’ve been debated ad nauseum here. The more I look at this team, the more I like their chances to surprise. No, they won’t be as good as they were last year. That said, the idea that Parra could become a solid 2, particularly if his change is sharper, is not as farfetched as some think. He was a solid number 3 type starter last year. I buy Yovani Gallardo. The offense is strong. I think there’s enough options for the pen to be decent, but it is a question.
4. Reds
This is a team that could really emerge, but I just wonder if they need another year. Can Volquez find consistency? He fell off the 2nd half of last year. Cueto has to emerge, and for all the 5th starter options, someone has to step up. Harang has to be the solid anchor. Huge rotation upside, but does it get reached this year? The bullpen looks decent on paper. I also wonder if they can find enough offensive consistency, from their young bats, and from the top of the order. That said, if they are close, they have one of the better systems in the game, and could make a deal to push themselves forward.
5. Astros
The margin for error is ridiculously thin. There’s a chance for this team to surprise, but everything has to go right, and that includes health because their system is a mess. I like Oswalt/Wandy … but asking me to count on the rest of the rotation? Eh. The bullpen looks to have the potential to be decent, but that’ snot a guarantee. Can the offense be consistent, namely with the top of the order? All in all, a tough buy for me right now, but I could see them surprise if everything breaks their way.
6. Pirates
Huntington, I think, has them in the right direction, but Littlefield left him a mess. The biggest issue is with pitching, as they lack high caliber minor league arms, and their rotation in the bigs is spotty. Can Ian Snell rebound, as he might be their most talented starting arm? Maholm is a solid, middle of the order guy. Duke/Ohlendorf/Karstens all have ability, but all are more end of the rotation types ideally. The weak rotation is anchored by a strong pen, though, led by an underhyped Matt Capps. It’s a pen that has some versatility to it, and it could prove an asset if the rotation can just give them something. The lineup might surprise some folks, but it likely will go through hot and cold spells. McLouth/Adam LaRoche/Doumit offer three intriguing bats, with Andy LaRoche holding upside, but being an unknown quantity. Moss is a decent bat in the OF. There’s some positional chips in the minors that I like, but not enough. Adam LaRoche is a strong player … outside of his slow starts. Can his brother finally emerge? Alvarez will move a brother at some point (I still think an Adam LaRoche to the Giants trade makes a ton of sense). McCutchen/Tabata are two guys they are banking on. I like guys like Negrych and Friday, but both are questions.
NL West – 2 horse race with one sleeper
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
I’ve been flipping back and forth here, but I’m going with the Dodgers in the end. Excellent offense, solid defense, and a solid, perhaps excellent, pen. A system that’s not as strong as before due to graduations, but will be able to provide value to the big league club. Joe Torre is someone people believe in, although I never bank too much on a manager. Talent is still the name of the game. The biggest question is the rotation. Don’t love it, but the upside is there to address it internally. Billingsley may be able to emerge as a staff ace, They need Clayton Kershaw or James McDonald to emerge, and both have the talent to be good (Kershaw has ace level ability, McDonald more of a 2/3 type).
2. San Francisco Giants
I wanted to go with them, but the Dodgers can answer their biggest question internally. The Giants can’t. Look, I expect Sandoval to rake, and I think Lewis can get better, but even if those two things happen, they need one more big bat. IF they can find a big bat, and indications are they have some room financially to go after a guy at midseason, this team has more than enough pitching to carry them. A case can be made that they have the best pitching in the NL, and perhaps the majors (now, that’s projecting Sanchez to get stronger as he fell apart the 2nd half, and that’s projecting Cain to take another step). I do think Randy will be fine for 2009, as he’s shown that he’s adjusted without his high level power stuff of his younger days. Don’t love the bullpen, as I’m not a big Wilson fan, but it can be decent. The system is strong and can allow them to make a move.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
I keep on wanting to put them at 1 or 2, and I just can’t. An excellent 1-2 punch in Webb/Haren, and the 3-5 is fairly solid. Don’t love the pen, but it could be decent. Am intrigued with the Flash Gordon signing for some reason. Like the Dodgers, their big concern can be answered internally. They need a bat or two to emerge another level. For now, just not sure the parts fit enough. System has some spare parts in the upper levels, but is a bit thin, and their top talent, Jarrod Parker, likely isn’t going anywhere.
4. Colorado Rockies
Looking at another year of rebuilding. I don’t like the bullpen. Can their young starting arms emerge this year? Not sure. The offense should be Coors capable, but overall, it’s an offense that screams inconsistency. I wonder when Dexter Fowler takes over in CF. They’ve got some system assets that could change some dynamics there.
5. San Diego Padres
This could be the worst team in the league, but I also don’t think it is as bad as people are suggesting. Let’s start with the positives – a nice class of minor league talent in AA, coupled with a lot of low level upside, should give Padres fans something to look forward to. Add in one of the best players in the league in Adrian Gonzalez, a decent young backstop in Nick Hundley, and an exciting young offensive talent in Headley, and there’s some hope. Let’s end on a positive note for them … hope.
NL Wildcard: Mets
Cubs over Mets; Dodgers over Marlins … man … how’d I end up with Cubs/Dodgers – that’s not a series that I’m excited about, but here’s hoping lefty bats help … so
World Series
Cubs vs. Yankees
by toonsterwu on Apr 5, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
The team with pinstripes
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
copout.
The day we lose our will to fight - Is the day we lose our Freedom.
by sanantonecub on Apr 5, 2009 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions
humor is a man's best friend
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
honest answer?
My heart would say Cubs, my brain says the Yankees… but the x-factor is Harden. A healthy Harden and our rotation matches up much better, as we would have an ace to go against Sabathia.
Giants finishing second?
Their starting pitching is excellent, and yes, it usually comes down to starting pitching, but you have to have a decent offense and bullpen too, and the Giants have neither. I admit, after the Dodgers, that division is wide open, but I’d be very surprised if the Giants finished that high. I guess we’ll find out soon enough. Not sure what to say about your picking the Marlins to win that division, other than if they do, Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel will probably be run out of New York on a rail.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
I like your picks!
They are in a word “gutsy” – specifically, KC and Florida.
"Let it begin! Let it begin!" ~ Rhino
I appreciate your take and rec'd it overall
but you really think a rotation with Horacio Ramirez and Sidney Ponson “has the best rotation”? Maybe you wrote this before that decision.
Happy Opening Day!
by DGU on Apr 5, 2009 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions
in the division
I did write it before I knew that decision, but even then, taking a sec to think on it right now, I stand by that, even with Horacio and Sidney, they arguably have the best rotation in the division. Now, I guess I am taking a step back and saying arguably, but it’s not like I expected Bannister/Hochevar to be much better than Ponson/Ramirez. Add in that I was also looking at the overall depth, including the systems.
But take a step back and look at the division. What other team would you take? Now … I should add, if you don’t buy Greinke/Meche, which is fair since neither have the track record, then fine, this is a question. But I buy Greinke/Meche as an excellent 1-2 punch.
The White Sox have one good starter, one middle of the rotation starters and a bunch of crap thereafter. The Indians have three huge question marks, and I prefer Greinke/Meche to Lee/Carmona. I prefer Greinke/Meche appreciably more than Verlander/?.
The only team that could make a case is Minnesota, but I think Blackburn/Slowey may regress a bit, and I like Greinke/Meche better than Baker/Liriano, and I like their system options better as well.
Keeping it Simple
AL East: Boston
AL Central: Minnesota
AL West: Texas
AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay
NL East: Philadelphia
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Los Angeles
NL Wild Card: New York
ALCS: Boston over Tampa Bay
NLCS: Chicago over Los Angeles
World Series: Chicago over Boston in 6 games
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
Keeping in the hot seat of blindness
NL
East: Phillies by a game, Mets implode with Sheffield and injuries
West: Dodgers because the West again is the worst division in baseball
Central: Cubs, 101 wins——
WC: Cardinals , stayed on the Cubs heals thankfully the entire season pushing them
AL
RedSox: beat out the Rays in a close race, Yankees see injuries in OF and rotation
Cleveland: close race between Chicago, MINN to the end
A’s: This years dark horse A’s make a few more off season acquisitions in pitching while Angels never get healthy on the mound.
WC: KC Royals in one game playoff over the Rays
NLDS: Cubs over Phillies in tight five game series, Cards over the Dodgers
NLDS: Cubs over Cards in six nervous games
ALDS: Cleveland over RedSox in five games, A’s over Royals
ALCS: Cleveland over A"s as Cinderella’s pumpkin arrives
WS: Cubs over Cleveland in seven nervous games
Other developments: Rangers, Tigers, file for Chapter 11 protection. Seattle, Toronto Detroit, Reds, Astros, D-Backs, & SD dump players on the market beginning in May but running through July. Integrity of the game is charged as some teams begin looking like AAA scab clubs by July. There are essentially two classes in baseball those with money and those without.
Cubs make two bold off season trades, one a starter that allows Harden to get well and the other a real CF’er.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
That's called.............
Cubs fever
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
by Clutche on Apr 5, 2009 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
ok how about somewhere between 98and 102, is that hot enough
I want more Cub wins
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Ask him five minutes before game time tonight and he'll be at 110.
"Let it begin! Let it begin!" ~ Rhino
Yankees OF and rotation
Thing is, they can probably handle injuries to the OF and rotation this year. Phillip Hughes is healthy, Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera offers them good depth (now, Melky isn’t a guy I want starting, but he’s solid enough as a bench guy), and Austin Jackson might be ready later in the year.
Giants will finish higher
Don’t think it takes much in the NL West, but Renteria and R Johnson will push them past ARI and maybe your Colorado pick
+30
I hope TLR gets to deliver it.
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Apr 6, 2009 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions
*TRL
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Apr 6, 2009 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions
You are really underestimating Reds Pitching
I don’t know how you dismiss a staff of Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo , Harang and Owings. Their bullpen maybe questionable but they have excellent starting pitching. I think Cub fans make fun of Dusty and the Reds at their peril.
"I daydream just like everybody else, I just do it with my body facing the field, so everybody thinks I'm paying attention."- Greg Maddux
no bats
Their O is woeful. And Arroyo might be on the DL to start the season with carpal tunnel issues.
"I've actually never had a drink before, tonight I might try it out. We'll see."
—Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, on turning 21
Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and others
beg to differ with you but Al’s dismissal of their pitching is a mistake.
"I daydream just like everybody else, I just do it with my body facing the field, so everybody thinks I'm paying attention."- Greg Maddux
by Doggie Stalker on Apr 5, 2009 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
Two reasons why I dismiss the Reds' pitching:
1) GABP, a launching pad
2) Dusty Baker
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
the reds o isn't woeful
but it could be inconsistent, due to the top of the order. Votto/Phillips could be an excellent combo, and Bruce/Encarnacion could emerge.
I think the Reds are going to start emerging, but
I also think Jocketty is going to sell vets at the deadline, hoping to get the Reds moving up as the Cubs move down; there’s already Harang rumors, and I think Jocketty is just waiting for Harang to re-establish his value.
Happy Opening Day!
by DGU on Apr 5, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions
The Cubs will struggle April through July plagued with injuries........
to Lee, Hardin, Gregg and Theriot, but win the division by 3 games over St. Louis with 95 wins and a late surge in September. They sweep the Dodgers in the NLCS and go on to win the Series in 6 over the Yankees. Lowlights and highlights of the season include: Fukudome benched by mid-May, Miles replaces Fontenot as the starting 2nd baseman; Bradley and Ramirez have injury free career years; Hoffpauir BA .290, 20 HR, 70 RBI in 110 games as PH, starter and back-up to injured Lee; Lou drops Soriano out of leadoff by June; Z wins 20, Dempster 18, Lilliy 16, Hardin 12; Marmol takes closer role when Gregg goes down while the Shark fills the middle void; Soto has a down year offensively but Koyie picks up the slack. Lou retires and is replaced by Sandberg.
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
Oh, of course DLee goes down with an injury.
Of course he does.
"Let it begin! Let it begin!" ~ Rhino
Before anyone puts too much stock in what Al says...
Take a look at his 2003 predictions… :)
http://web.archive.org/web/20030608222855/www.yellon.org/baseball.htm
The day we lose our will to fight - Is the day we lose our Freedom.
It's easy to single out one year and criticize
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
It's even more fun
To bring it up to the owner of the site 6 years later on a completely different blog. :)
The day we lose our will to fight - Is the day we lose our Freedom.
by sanantonecub on Apr 5, 2009 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions
Oh, laugh your guts out.
I know I’m usually wrong. But last year I did get all four NL playoff teams correct. (Too bad I couldn’t have willed my postseason NL predictions to be right.)
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Yeah, you did pretty well overall last year.
Many, many pundits were high on Detroit and Seattle at this time in 2008.
"Let it begin! Let it begin!" ~ Rhino
It's easy to single out one year and criticize
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
or to point it out
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
Congratulations Al....
You jinxed the Cubs again…SIGH…..
"Hey-Hey! Home Run! Attaboy Ronnie!" ~ Jack Brickhouse
Let's get this party started already.
Go Cubbies!!
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
I am so ready for real games to start.
…and I like any predictions that have the Cubs winning it all.
This line from a movie, television show or other piece of popular culture pretty much sums up my entire personality.
Watching ESPN right now
Peter Gammons was talking about Lou being worried that he might have to put Milton in CF if Fukudome doesn’t get his stuff together. I’m assuming this would be so Hoffpauir could play RF, but I haven’t heard any of this before so I was wondering if anybody else had heard this before?
www.talkingchicagobaseball.blogspot.com
No.......
but I predicted this 6 weeks ago
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
Dont' see why that's necessary.
If Fukudome doesn’t get his stuff together, Reed Johnson will be the everyday center fielder, and Kosuke will probably back him up if he needs a day off. An expensive backup and late-inning defensive replacement, but you’ve got to have the best lineup out there.
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004
Wouldn't the best lineup in Lou's mind
include Hoffpauir though? Thats why I believe this report from Gammons, because we know Lou loves Hoffpauir and he wants to get him in the lineup.
www.talkingchicagobaseball.blogspot.com
If Fukudome doesn't perform...............
he will be gone
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
how?
can’t send him down, doubtful we would but out his remaining 3 yrs, and I do not see a team wanting to trade for him if he is not performing.
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
It was an expensive mistake.........
we’ll end up eating most of his salary in a trade
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
ever the optimist
Steal a little and they throw you in jail, Steal a lot and they make you king -- Bob Dylan
Ibanez over Burrell
isn’t much of a defensive improvement
Some thoughts
First off, without going into a full slate of predictions, there are a few things that stand out in my opinon
- Reds… I think they’ll be a much better team than expected by many. I see them as the 2nd best team in the NL, especially if Arroyo and Harang revert back towards their career norms. This is a good rotation and a solid offense with some young firepower. Mainly, however, I think the Brewers and Cards rotations are really bad. The Brewers are going to lost many 12-10 games and the Cards are expecting a lot out of some really mediocre starters.
- Angels… I’m not sure who else in the AL west will step up, but I do not like their rotation.
As for the Cubs, I think they’ll win the NL Central, but there are a few issues that stand out in my mind
- Carlos Zambrano needs to have a complete season. Was last year’s up and down an fluke or was it a sign of things to come. He needs to stay healthy and have a 20-win season, otherwise he may just be one of the really overrated starters in the game.
- Ryan Dempster is likely to regress, the question is how much? The Cubs paid him a lot of money and he needs to prove that he can be a #2 starter on a winning team. Ted Lilly is likely to have some inconsistent patches while being one of the top #3 starters in the game, but he needs Demp and Zambrano to lead the way.
- Someone in the bullpen needs to step up and provide the bridge to Marmol and Gregg. It might be Vizcaino or Patton. But this bullpen could be anywhere from extremely solid to a tinderbox.
- The line-up overall has the potential to be very dynamic with Bradley in the #4 spot and balance at the top. D. Lee could put the line-up over the top OR he could take them out of a lot of scoring opportunities with his penchant for grounding into DPs. If that trend continues Piniella MUST swap him and Aramis in the line-up.
Predictions
NL East
Mets
Marlins
Phils
Braves
Nats
NL Central
Cubs
Cards *
Stros
Reds
Crew
The Pitts
NL West
D Backs
Dodgers (Webb, Haren > Manny)
Giants
Rockies
Padres
AL East
Sawx
Rays
Yanks
Blue Birds
Orioles
AL Central
Indians
Twins
White Sox
Royals
Detroit
AL West
Angels
A’s
Rangers
Ichiro
W.S. : Sawx over Mets
Actually, the Mariners closer is Brandon Morrow
Not David Aardsma
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
It's Morrow's job
It’s quite unlikely that they will deviate from Morrow, IMO. While he isn’t Z’s pick, the fact that they have already shelved him as a starter when they are rebuilding is a disappointment. Morrow was excellent as a pen arm last year, he flashes closer level stuff, and being in the pen prevents him from having to work on his secondary pitches, allowing him to work off a dominant fastball and use his, off the top, I think, a splitter?
I’m not saying that it will definitely be Morrow or that Morrow will succeed in the role (although I do think it likely), but this is a bad team that is rebuilding. There’s no need to move from Morrow as the closer unless they decide he can start again (unlikely). Even Josh Fields is unlikely to challenge Morrow, as Morrow has the better stuff. There’s a chance Morrow is more Farnsworth (setup quality than closer), but it’s too early to tell on that.
Also, Al
What ever happened to predicting Cubs players’ performance? I always enjoyed that.
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion
Colin Wyers did spreadsheets...
… but I never got the final results. I’ll see if he has them.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
AL Predictions
Part of what I’m seeing in the season ahead is a return to contract-dumping and that being key to how the season unfolds, with the rich getting richer. For example, I have a lot of concerns about the Yankees’ aging, fragile offense, but I also think they will be able to buy upgrades where they need them.
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
I can see the Yankees and Sox going 1-2 either way and the Rays could definitely slip in, but the birds have no shot.
1) NEW YORK YANKEES
$$$: Strong Buyers
Runs Scored: Just Good Enough
Runs Allowed: Excellent
Season Headline: Changing of the guard as old stars fade and new stars rise
2) BOSTON RED SOX (wildcard)
$$$: Buyers
Runs Scored: Good
Runs Allowed: Excellent
Season Headline: The best team in the AL coasts into the playoffs content to be the wildcard
3) TAMPA BAY RAYS
$$$: Buying and selling for 2010; Kazmir traded
Runs Scored: The hitters take a step forward
Runs Allowed: The defense takes a step back
Season Headline: Do the Tampa fans show up?
4) TORONTO BLUE JAYS
$$$: Strong sellers; odd prediction: when the Jays insist that getting Halladay means taking Vernon Wells, the Yankees end up the “winners”
Runs Scored: Below Average
Runs Allowed: Fair, because of a lot of second half experimentation
Season Headline: Bye, bye J.P. (and the players you signed)
5) BALTIMORE ORIOLES
$$$: There are obvious sell candidates, but I won’t be surprised to see them buy, for example, a Miguel Cabrera type if he or someone like him is made available.
Runs Scored: Better than the Yankees
Runs Allowed: Historically bad, worst in the majors
Season Headline: Young offense arrives; is the pitching far behind?
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
This is the division where nothing would surprise me; injuries and the buyer/seller orientation will determine who gets that 1-in-8 shot.
1) CLEVELAND INDIANS
$$$: This is a good question for a team that bought in during the winter – is there more to spend?
Runs Scored: Good
Runs Allowed: Good
Season Headline: Solid team with strong future.
2) DETROIT TIGERS
$$$: Everyone assumes they sell, but what if they start the year strong?
Runs Scored: Above average
Runs Allowed: Good, I’m bullish on their pitching and defense
Season Headline: Tigers contend but fall short
3) KANSAS CITY ROYALS
$$$: Neutral
Runs Scored: Good if Guillen/Jacobs end the year batting 7/6 instead of 3/4
Runs Allowed: Ugly, ugly infield defense brings down the pitching; poor.
Season Headline: Mark Teahen makes errors at all 9 positions in one game.
4) MINNESOTA TWINS
$$$: Do the Twins ever do anything at the deadline?
Runs Scored: Poor
Runs Allowed: Poor
Season Headline: Injury-riddled team sees hope for 2010.
5) CHICAGO WHITE SOX
$$$: Strong sellers
Runs Scored: I see a lot of their hitters taking steps back this year.
Runs Allowed: Can they keep manufacturing run prevention?
Season Headline: Fire sale!
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
I can see anyone winning this division, but I think the M’s are ready to sell and focused on the future; I also think the Angels always do better than I expect them to.
1) LOS ANGELES ANGELS
$$$: Buyers, if they need to; I could see them buying the wrong guy, like maybe Paul Konerko.
Runs Scored: There are enough good, young IF options here that they’ll end the season with a good group and a decent offense.
Runs Allowed: The health of the pitching is a key qustion for them, but I think they’ll end the season strong.
Season Headline: That was harder than we thought, but we made it.
2) OAKLAND ATHLETICS
$$$: Buying/Selling dictated by how close they are; I think they buy – a 3B.
Runs Scored: Above average
Runs Allowed: Good
Season Headline: A’s put 3 3Bs on DL on same day when all 3 are injured in the same game
3) TEXAS RANGERS
$$$: Not sure; will the Rangers get in on buying expensive pitchers if they’re available? even as they hope to sell some of their vets?
Runs Scored: Good
Runs Allowed: Poor
Season Headline: Rangers end season strong, and look good for future.
4) SEATTLE MARINERS
$$$: Strong sellers
Runs Scored: Historically bad offense, where Ronny Cedeno is one of the better hitters
Runs Allowed: Good
Season Headline: We almost managed to get as much for Erik Bedard as we gave up (if you include what we got for Adrian Beltre)
Happy Opening Day!
That's an interesting take ... focusing on monetary power
Let’s see, in general, teams that I could see going down a let’s try to sell path depending on how things go (not saying they’ll be able).
Seattle Mariners – Bad team, new GM, top chips a few years away.
Chicago White Sox – A bad start and Kenny may look at the improved farm system and gear towards 2010.
Detroit Tigers – They’ve got to hang in the race. If they even slip a bit … I think it’s firesale. Pitching has to overachieve.
Toronto – Too tough of a division could spell the end of Ricciardi.
Baltimore – They may buy, which I agree on, but I do think they’ll sell some veterans assets, like Wigginton and Huff perhaps, amongst others.
Darkhorse: Cleveland Indians – If they aren’t in it, they might opt to move Cliff Lee, Jake Westbrook (if he gets back in time), Mark DeRosa, and others. Look, I think they’ll be in it, but if they are out, it might make sense to sell some guys off.
NL
Padres – I don’t think they’ll be the historically bad team some are predicting, but I do think they’ll move pieces.
Diamondbacks – Could financial issues lead them to part with an top starter to restock the system?
Astros – Budget is so tight, system is so weak, a slow start could mean a look to the future.
Pirates – Okay, not a firesale type situation, but they could definitely sell.
Darkhorse: Atlanta Braves – If they aren’t in it … could they ponder dealing some veteran pieces that aren’t a part of the future in a big way? Say, a Javier Vazquez (Hudson being back next year certainly eases concerns on dealing him), say a Mike Gonzalez or a Rafael Soriano, say a Casey Kotchman (if Freddie Freeman is ready), say a Frenchy or an Anderson? Not that they’ll bring a huge return on that bunch, but could they sell if they fall out? I think it’s something to ponder if they can’t hang around.
Good points
I agree about your darkhorses; I just see both those clubs due good luck this year, since they had such a poor share of bad luck last year.
I agree about the Padres not being historically bad, but I think they’ll be the worst team in baseball as their pitching implodes.
Happy Opening Day!
by DGU on Apr 5, 2009 8:46 PM CDT up reply actions
If I had to take a dumb guess at who finishes with the worst record in the league
I’m going Nationals or Mariners. Mariners because I expect them to sell at midseason and struggle the 2nd half. Nationals because their top arm is probably Jordan Zimmerman, and he could’ve used a bit more time in the minors (basically, I’m saying I think their rotation will be bad) and because their bullpen is looking hit or miss.
Senior Circuit
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
1) NEW YORK METS
$$$: Buyers
Runs Scored: Overrated, but still good.
Runs Allowed: Good
Season Headline: One of the best teams in baseball, and the bullpen to close it out
2) ATLANTA BRAVES
$$$: Buyers
Runs Scored: Good; I really like their lineup, even Garet Anderson if used in moderation
Runs Allowed: Good; with pitching reinforcements in the minors in case of problems
Season Headline: A tough, tough division brought down all the records in the East and kept one of the 4 best teams in the league from the playoffs
3) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
$$$: Neutral
Runs Scored: Good
Runs Allowed: Average
Season Headline: The ’08 post-season innings added up and wore down the pitchers in ’09
4) WASHINGTON NATIONALS
$$$: They’ve got some 1B/OF guys to move, but they may be in the market for expensive talent
Runs Scored: Above average, maybe even good
Runs Allowed: Below average probably, but there’s potential here
Season Headline: Stephen Strasburg, Stephen Strasburg, Stephen Strasburg
5) FLORIDA MARLINS
$$$: Good question.
Runs Scored: Average; this could be a very bad OF offense or a very good one; I’m expecting it will be closer to the former
Runs Allowed: Below average; there’s just a lot that can go wrong with defense, pitchers’ health, etc.
Season Headline: At least Logan Morrison looks good
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
1) CHICAGO CUBS
$$$: Buyers
Runs Scored: Good
Runs Allowed: Good, although there’s a lot of potential for defensive regression here, especially with injuries to key players, particularly Derrek Lee
Season Headline: Third time’s the charm
2) CINCINNATI REDS
$$$: Sellers; although they could make a run for the wild card and buy an OF
Runs Scored: Below average; although this offense could surprise and easily be upgraded
Runs Allowed: Good
Season Headline: Could use a few more base-cloggers after all
3) MILWAUKEE BREWERS
$$$: Neutral
Runs Scored: Average
Runs Allowed: Average
Season Headline: Prince Fielder should have been MVP, except the Brewers weren’t close to contending
4) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
$$$: Sellers
Runs Scored: Above average
Runs Allowed: Below average
Season Headline: Lack of depth killed us
5) HOUSTON ASTROS
$$$: Should be sellers, but you never know.
Runs Scored: Average
Runs Allowed: Poor
Season Headline: And the best part is… we’re only getting worse next year
6) PITTSBURGH PIRATES
$$$: Sellers
Runs Scored: Poor; their best hitters are in the minor leagues
Runs Allowed: Poor; unfortunately for them, the same cannot be said of their pitchers
Season Headline: Entire IF traded away at trade deadline!
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
1) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
$$$: Neutral
Runs Scored: Good; this is the year the young hitters come alive
Runs Allowed: Good
Season Headline: One of the best teams in baseball
2) LOS ANGELES DODGERS (wildcard)
$$$: Neutral
Runs Scored: Above average; Manny disappoints
Runs Allowed: Good
Season Headline: Colletti fired though Dodgers make wildcard
3) COLORADO ROCKIES
$$$: Sellers
Runs Scored: Good
Runs Allowed: Below average
Season Headline: The young kids look good; we’ll be contenders next year
4) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
$$$: Sellers
Runs Scored: Poor
Runs Allowed: Good
Season Headline: Desperate for hitters
5) SAN DIEGO PADRES
$$$: Sellers
Runs Scored: Poor
Runs Allowed: Poor
Season Headline: We were the worst team in baseball… and then we traded Jake Peavy, Brian Giles, and Kevin Kouzmanoff
Happy Opening Day!
by DGU on Apr 5, 2009 8:43 PM CDT up reply actions
RE (can't think of a title)
I forgot about the Rockies in my above post. I could see them selling, as they are a team in a transition.
I’m not sure the Giants, even if they are out of it, would be “sellers” in the sense of moving contracts because, well, Zito and Rowand likely won’t find new homes without them chewing up a bunch of the money. They also, by most accounts, have some monetary flexibility (ability to add payroll).
Real quick, but I’m curious about your “season headline” for the Cardinals. I think they’ve got better depth than people think, as Rasmus and Wallace could force their way in, and they look to have a decent bench. There’s enough setup arms. If there’s any concerns, I’d be concerned about their “top level” guys – do they have a sure closer, do they have the front of the rotation bats, can they get on base consistently to set up the middle of the lineup?
I am also fairly surprised that you think the Marlins are going to be worse than the Nationals. I can buy people being lukewarm on the Marlins – heck the predictions are. But worse than the Nationals? With that pitching staff and an offense that will be decent?
Predictions
Re: Nats v. Marlins – there’s always a surprise somewhere, so, I’m predicting the Marlins to fall apart. Maybin seems likely to struggle; Hermida’s name is increasingly connected to Ben Grieve’s; Cantu is a disappointment waiting to happen, Bonifacio is not a 3B; there’s a lot of injury risk in the rotation – I guess I can agree that the Marlins are more likely to be better than the Nats, but I can also see the Marlins totally falling apart – and for fun’s sake, that’s what I predicted.
I think the Nats’ offense will be better than decent. In the same way that I’m skeptical of the Marlins’ hitters, I expect good things from most of the Nats’ hitters (with Zimmerman being the notable exception).
Re: Giants – They seem a good bet to move Winn and Bengie. You’re right Rowand and Zito aren’t going anywhere.
Re: Cards – I like Rasmus; OF depth isn’t the problem, unless you count them too deep so that they try and move Schumaker to 2nd and Mather to 3rd. It’s the IF, where the Cards didn’t even consider Wallace, have a project at 2B, a guy who could easily give them nothing at SS, and, what? Brendan Ryan and Joe Thurston for depth at all of those spots? Plus, the pitching could get stretched thin real quick.
Your questions for the Cards are also relevant and troubling for them. Put Glaus back in the lineup, and I’d put them over the Brewers. But by the time Glaus gets back, the Cards will be out of it, Ankiel will be traded, and they’ll be looking to the teams that might win with Rasmus and Wallace.
Happy Opening Day!
re: predictions
Marlins – that’s fair. I obviously think different (having predicted them to win the division), and that’s the fun with predictions and rankings.
Bonaifacio should be fine defensively at third – they are better off with him at 2nd and uggla at 3rd, but Emilio’s glove should be fine there. As for the rotation being an injury concern, I’m assuming we are discarding fluke injuries. If so, I don’t see the huge risk from what we know. Johnson and Sanchez will have had more time to heal from TJ. An injury is an injury is an injury – but TJ has become fairly commonplace that, with so much time since their surgeries, I’m just not that concerned about anything dealing with previous injuries that related to TJ for them. I don’t know of any major concerns, off the top (without googling) with Andrew Miller or Chris Volstad. Ricky Nolasco might have some concern (something with the elbow 2 years ago I think), but he was clean healthwise last year. I do have some concerns about their depth, so if an injury does happen to more than 1 guy, I’d be worried.
I’ve also still got enough faith in Jeremy Hermida – he didn’t have as bad a 2008 as many suggested, just had a horrid time at home. I also have a hard time buying that his bat speed has slowed down. His biggest concern, as ESPN recently pointed out, was missing fastballs last year. I think that was due to trying to go for the long ball too much and then he wasn’t in a good mental state for his home games. I also don’t know if I expect Cantu to really drop that much, provided he gets his AB’s. I’m sure someone could make a statistical case, but last I checked, his 08 seemed fairly in line with the player he was before, and he is in his prime. I’m not expecting greatness from Cantu, but I am not expecting him to fall off the earth. Either way, I think they’ll generate enough production at first. The offense won’t be as powerful as last year (I think people largely forget that their offense was actually pretty powerful last year, but very swing or miss), but I think it may be better. This is where Bonifacio becomes a big deal – he can shorten his swing and get on base with regularity, they’ll be able to setup an excellent middle of the lineup. If not … then they may have problems.
On the Nats, the offense can be decent, but it’s a very hot or cold, hit or miss offense due to the types of players they have. I’m just not sure who breaks out outside of Dukes, and I’m not sure who Nick Johnson is at this point. It’s a shame a solid bat like Josh Willingham likely gets shelved. Herein lies the other question I have – will OF guys get enough AB’s to break out? Not sure.
I think the Cardinals were right in not rushing Wallace up. They have two passable stopgap corner IF’s in Freese/Craig, guys that are useful depth pieces. Make sure Wallace is ready, and know where you are going to stick him. He’s a first baseman that will play another spot, whether it be corner OF or third. I think Greene is fine defensively at short. I buy him rebounding offensively, but I understand the questions. Tyler Greene and Jarrett Hoffpauir are passable MI stopgap options in AAA. Dunno, I just don’t see depth as big an issue as you do, as I think they have passable stopgap options all across the board, and that’s all you can really ask for. If Schumaker is a problem at 2nd, and I think he’ll be passable defensively, but if he is a problem, finding a stopgap 2nd in a trade isn’t the hardest thing.
Yeah; I can definitely see it your way.
That’s the point of these predictions, is it not, to start thinking more about these teams as teams. Good points all.
Happy Opening Day!
Question about Orioles.
Don’t you think their runs allowed will be quite good this year, given their outstanding outfield and solid middle infield? Are you basing that on their scary-weak starting pitching?
"Let it begin! Let it begin!" ~ Rhino
Deep Down
In a way it’s kinda harsh that you predict Kerry Wood gives up the walk off blast that finally puts the cubs over the top, but in a way I think even Woody would join in on the celebration with all of Chicago if we won the series regardless of the circumstances.
My Predictions
NL East
I like the Mets, but I’ve said that the past 2 years. This year, I think may be different as they added some real good depth in the bullpen. The back end of the roation really scares me though.
NL Central
Probably the easiest call. The Cubs are the best team in the NL and the only great team in the division. It is improved over last year and some team like St L or Cinn could surprise, but I think that would still take some favrable outcomes to have that occur.
NL West
The Dodgers. Ramirez is a one man wrecking crew and I think he was served some humble pie over the offseason. That could motivate him. The rest of the team is pretty solid if not spectacular. They have good pitching depth, if not outstanding pitchers (with the possible exception of Kershaw if he can put it all together so quickly).
NL Wildcard
This is a toughy as I do think that the Phillies, Marlins, Cardinals, Braves, Brewers, and D-Backs all have decent teams. The Phillies, though, seem to have the most difference makers. They won the WS with arguably their best player in Utley having a bum hip.
NL WS representative:
Cubs. I think they are the best team in the NL and I think that they will add a major piece at some point during the year.
AL East
Probably the toughest division in baseball. They have the three best teams in the AL, but obviously, only one can win it. I don’t love the Red Sox offense, but I do think that the pitching staff has a chance of being very special. I’m going with the Red Sox
AL Central
No great teams in the division, but the only one for me that stands out are the Twins. Mauer and Morneau can absolutely rake and they have some emerging superstars on the roster. Add tons of athletic talent and an outstanding manager and I think you’ve got an 88-90 game winning division winner. The Royals and Indians should battle with them though.
AL West
Probably the weakest division in baseball. The Angels, though they have a bunch of injury issues, seem to be able to pull it all out when they need to. I’m going with them, but I could see the A’s making a run, but only if the offennse that they brought in can adjust to the park.
AL Wildcard
There aren’t as many choices to choose from as the NL but the choices that are there are outstanding – Tampa and NY. I’m going with Tampa though. A-Rod is a whole lot of uncertainty and Jeter is certainly on the downside of his career. Count me in on the Oriole bandwagon, but it’s still too early for them.
AL WS representative
Strangely enough, I’m going with Tampa again because when they put it all together, they have so much talent. I think that Madden is capable of doing that too. Also, it’s the only fitting way for the Cubs to lose the WS.
As a side note, I’ve heard that there are as many as 10 baseball teams in serious financial trouble. I’m not sure who they are, but that could have huge implications on the races. We might see some outstanding players traded from teams thought to be possible pre-season contenders simply because of financial concerns. If they don’t get off to a hot start, they will be looking to unload quicker than normal using the poor performance as cover to get out of costly contracts.
by jerry morales rules on Apr 6, 2009 9:31 AM CDT reply actions
The teams that may be in financial trouble...
… aren’t the small market teams like the Pirates and Padres, who have already cut payroll.
It’s the “mid-majors” like the Braves, Tigers and Astros, who have spent like contenders but who don’t have the fanbases to support that, particularly in Detroit, where they raised prices in one of the worst-hit cities by the recession.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
No, Daver, don't do it!
(But…but…I have to!) You’re not qualified! (Must predict.) Noone cares. (Must predict.) Alright, just make it quick:
NATIONAL LEAGUE
East
1. Mets (mad as hell, strong middle of the order, backend repaires)
2. Braves (stable rotation, surprise resurgence) – WILDCARD
3. Phillies (uh, this hangover!)
4. Marlins (the usual – surprisingly competitive)
5. Nats (is it draft time yet?)
Central
1. Cubs (Pound sand, b**ches!)
2. Cards (ripping good offense and just enough pitching)
3. Reds (Dusty be damned, they’re breakin’ out…a little),
4. Brewers (pitching, pen and defense undercuts this scrappy-ass little team)
5. Astros (aging, bitter, shaky pitching)
6. Pirates (last-minute effort to replace starting lineup with Manatees proves unsuccessful)
West
1. Dodgers
2. Giants
3. D’Backs
4. Rockies
5. Padres
American League
East
1. Yankees (last season’s “humliation,” massive FA spending spree, new stadium = HUGE chip on their shoulder; this is the new/old Yankees: same BIG MONEY but no longer complacent, now angry, backs to wall….once ARod gets back, their offense will produce and their hellacious starting rotation will do the rest)
2. Red Sox (too much talent not to compete heartily) WILDCARD
3. Rays (slight fallback after last season’s heroic rise to relevance)
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles
Central
1. Cleveland Indians (because of Woody and DeRo, of course)
2. Royals (ha ha…what the hell)
3. White Sox (they scream “middle of the road” to me; I’ll leave it up to them to prove me wrong)
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Detroit Tigers (bad mojo persists)
West
1. Angels (they’ll figure things out)
2. Oakland A’s (young starters surprise, but ultimately fall short)
3. Rangers
4. Mariners (more bad mojo)
OK, I feel better getting that off my chest. I’m not going to bother with postseason predictions – too early and I’ll have to pick the Cubs and I just don’t want to think about it right now.
"Let it begin! Let it begin!" ~ Rhino
I'm very disappointed
No Comments for the ENTIRE NL West? What’d they do to you!!! j/k
I guess that sums up how much enthusiasm I can muster for that division.
Well, that’s not completely true – I’m a big Tim Lincecum fan. I should’ve given him a shout-out. Probably should’ve taken a swipe at the Padres out of general principle, too.
"Let it begin! Let it begin!" ~ Rhino
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