It isn't in our imagination - The Cubs really do K in key situations
Apologize if this has already circulated but WSJ had interesting piece today about how the Cubs struggle in key game situations. I think some of the data not as damning as the rest, but the 3-0 count stat is pretty interesting. It is worth noting that the Cubs rank 8th in overall MLB strikeouts so these numbers below do deviate from the broader norm.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124217883823113503.html
Average major league team had a .477 slugging percentage and struck out once every 19.44 trips to the plate when batter has a 3-0 count. The Cubs slugging just .214 and striking out once every 7.44 chances."
Here is how they rank in several scenarios where a whiff is not appreciated:
| SCENARIO | MLB RANK |
| Striking out after starting a plate appearance with a 3-0 count | 1st |
| Striking out in the ninth inning when the team is down by one run | Tied for 3rd |
| Striking out with a runner on third and less than two outs | 4th |
| Striking out with a runner on second and no outs | 11th |
| Striking out with the bases loaded | 11th |
Source: Stats LLC
Any thoughts on the 3-0 count enigma? Only thing I could think of is that Cubs batting coach's approach is to have Cubs take more pitches than other teams when count is 3-1. Outcome of this is that either the player walks (which doesn't help BA or slugging %) and if pitch is strike then the 3-0 advantage is now a 3-2 disadvantage
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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52 comments
Comments
I think this is caused by all the booing.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on May 13, 2009 2:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe the Cubs are reading BCB and looking at SWL's images during the game
…and are losing their concentration?
"I'm not much of a chemistry guy, you know. Chemistry to me is a pinch-hit double with the bases loaded"--Jim Frey, Chicago Tribune, 1985.
by zevkalman on May 13, 2009 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
or Steroid talks
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
by Cubbie-Tim on May 13, 2009 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
LULZ
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on May 13, 2009 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
3-0 count is interesting for 2 reasons
I noticed Sunday that twice the players swung at 3-0. I’m guessing that’s a Lou thing?
Also, when you get to 3-0 and strike out at least your getting the pitcher to throw at least 6 pitches. If he’s being dominant atleast you’re getting the pitch count up.
by ak123 on May 13, 2009 2:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If he's being dominant is he likely to pitch into a 3-0 count?
I really don’t know, just asking. Seems like he wouldn’t to me though.
by GoCubbies34 on May 13, 2009 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
theory is
on a 3-0 count, the pitcher will throw a strike, because he has to.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 13, 2009 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please inform our bullpen of this "theory".
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on May 13, 2009 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ahem.
“the pitcher will try to throw a strike”
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 13, 2009 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rec'd
Thank you for bringing this to the open.
My impression on the 3-0 enigma is simple: coaches and managers have not instructed the players to be patient. A team that exercised such patience at the plate last year grew complacent and new additions haven’t got a “talkin’ to” this year yet. Just my $0.02.
One day I hope to come up with something worthy of this space.
by chilango2 on May 13, 2009 3:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If the players have not been instructed to be patient
how did the count get to 3-0?
by Not Bruce Froemming on May 13, 2009 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to know where the Cubs rank
in 3-0 counts accumulated.
And on the sixth day, God created Joakim Noah...
by TheTruth11 on May 13, 2009 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
true
are we first in the league getting into a 3-0 count as well?
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
by Cubbie-Tim on May 13, 2009 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fickle patience?
Half patience?
Child-like patience?
One day I hope to come up with something worthy of this space.
by chilango2 on May 13, 2009 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guess non-hacking patience
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on May 13, 2009 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The same team
that’s on pace to draw 638 walks?
And on the sixth day, God created Joakim Noah...
by TheTruth11 on May 13, 2009 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a very good point
when the stats say we rank first in strikeouts after 3-0 counts, is that sheer number, or percentage? Because if it’s sheer number, it’s a function of how many times we’re getting to that count.
by chitownhawkeye on May 13, 2009 6:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again, it sounds like
the poster has decided on a conclusion and is trying to fit facts to match it.
by Not Bruce Froemming on May 13, 2009 11:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meh...
I think it’s better for the offense to give out the green light to certain hitters in 3-0 counts. Wasn’t it just the other day when both Bradley and Soriano swung on 3-0 counts? I’d give them that green light every time.
Free Ronny Cedeno
by Kansas25 on May 13, 2009 3:47 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I dunno, but I saw Soto swinging at a 3-0 count and wondered what the hell he was doing.
He promptly struck out on a 3-2 count
by WanderingWanderer on May 13, 2009 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It makes sense...
Bradley, for example, has 1.724ish OPS when making contact on 3-0 counts. Small sample of course.
Free Ronny Cedeno
by Kansas25 on May 14, 2009 12:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
last night
he also swung at 3-0. Got a strike. Swung at 3-1. Got a HR.
Sometimes, you DO swing at those pitches. Gotta hit the ball.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 14, 2009 7:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was most thankful for Adrian Gonzalez swinging at a 3-0 pitch from Guzman
and promptly grounding out to end the inning
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on May 14, 2009 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it possible that the Cubs are in more 3-0 counts that any other team?
Thus, giving them a greater chance of failing as a result of having more opportunities.
I’m not sure if that table you referenced above where they rank the Cubs is an average or a total. If it’s an average, my theory is bust. If it’s a total, then it may be possible.
by dr stabbingworth on May 13, 2009 4:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That is, the article was ambiguous as to whether those rankings were based on averages or totals
by dr stabbingworth on May 13, 2009 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
true
since there’s no reference to “rate” or “average”, i would bet that the 3-0 stat means the cubs have more 3-0 Ks than any other team has 3-0 Ks. i would also bet that (a) we have the most 3-0 counts total, and (b) our “rate” of 3-0 Ks is not significantly higher than other teams’
the pink hat guy is my father
by joeschmitt on May 13, 2009 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is there
a correlation between high OBP and the 3-0 strikeout rate being low?
Maybe the teams with high OBP will sit and look at the extra balls in order to just get on base.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
by KaliCub on May 13, 2009 4:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I like how the majority of people who create posts
at some point says…
“sorry if this is posted before or Al you can delete this if you want or something like that.”
Interesting post Beltway.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
by cubswynn on May 13, 2009 4:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
LOL, that is true
Well I think most people – like me – scan the FanPost headlines to see if it has been posted and then proceed. I fear the wrath of the “already a Post on this” BCBers.
by BeltwayCubsFan on May 13, 2009 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very interesting.....
What concerns me (or is of more interest to me) is getting the runner in from 3rd w/ less than 2 out. Last night was sooooo frustrating when Dome was on 3rd w/ no out in the 4th and he did score. Lee & Milton both K’d in the “less than 2 out scenario.” I thought we were doomed after that. Glad I was wrong.
BELIEVE!
by cubbie08 on May 13, 2009 4:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
We are last in that situation so far this year.
Need to do better. I was worried too. I’m also glad to be wrong.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
by KaliCub on May 13, 2009 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please tell me more....
I say (no qunatifying evidence) that since 04 (with perhaps some exceptions last year) the Cubs are in the bottom 3rd of the NL at scoring their baserunners…….
And I’m not at all surprised at what you are pointing out.
The best defense is a good offense.....Lou Pinella...still hasn't managed the Cubs to a post season win. D. Lee still doesn't have a post seasson RBI for Cubs...ditto for Soriano
by kcjones on May 19, 2009 10:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The 3-0 count slugging % disparity is HUGE
I mean I believe in the law of averages and this disparity will narrow as season goes on but its not like the season is 5 games old. It’s 1/5 over. What i do notice and the numbers back up is that even guys who are not strikeout prone (Fontenot, Theroit) do seem to K in these key situations.
by BeltwayCubsFan on May 13, 2009 4:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The real link
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124217883823113503.html
I can’t get them to work in the top threads either.
"I daydream just like everybody else, I just do it with my body facing the field, so everybody thinks I'm paying attention."- Greg Maddux
by Doggie Stalker on May 13, 2009 4:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Since no one has said it already
Small sample size, anyone?
Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog
by berselius on May 13, 2009 5:00 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
3-0 counts
According to Baseball Reference, we’re at the league average in 3-0 counts, 6%. In fact, while we are 5th in K’s, we’re 6th in BB. As a team we seem to be in the middle when you look at the overall numbers. In the most significant stat, OPS, we’re 8th.
There is one stat that seems to well below par. That is advancing runners. The definition is productive outs. It includes a pitcher bunting with one out and advancing the runner, It also includes advancing any runner with no outs. Finally, it evaluates scoring a runner while making the 2nd out of the inning. We’re at 26% against a league average of 32%. Some of that is reflected by the K’s by our guys with baserunners.
One question. How many times have you seen our hitters had a base hit on a 3-0 versus the number of times we’ve seen an out that seemed to squash a potential rally?
If you like Selig's handling of the steroid issue, you'll love his choice for next Cub owner.
by tharr on May 13, 2009 5:00 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
"According to Baseball Reference, we’re at the league average in 3-0 counts, 6%."
Is that in the number of 3-0 counts, or the percentage of strikeouts following 3-0?
by TC Cubby on May 14, 2009 6:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is
the number of 3-0 counts seen. So far that that has been 72 times. That pitch was swung at 7 times but I don’t have the results. However, I can’t recall a single hit on a 3-0 count as opposed to seeing a number of outs.
If you like Selig's handling of the steroid issue, you'll love his choice for next Cub owner.
by tharr on May 14, 2009 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Small sample size
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 13, 2009 8:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Change in philosophy
There has been a noticeable increase in swings in 3-0 counts. I cannot remember one over the previos Cubs/Pinella seasons, buit this year there have been 4 at least. And so far, this change in philosophy is not working.
Ball 4!
by californiachicagoan on May 14, 2009 1:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd say in light of this series
This fanpost isn’t looking all that spectacular.
by Not Bruce Froemming on May 14, 2009 5:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Can't leave anyone on...
if you can’t get anyone on…
Gotta score to win….
AND I’ll always BLISTER a shut out offense against a no name pitcher
The best defense is a good offense.....Lou Pinella...still hasn't managed the Cubs to a post season win. D. Lee still doesn't have a post seasson RBI for Cubs...ditto for Soriano
by kcjones on May 19, 2009 10:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, Don't Care about the 3-0 count
but, the strikeouts w/runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs is inexcusable. Them’s a lot of runs they’re leaving on the basepaths.
by Gunga La Gunga on May 14, 2009 11:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I've said since 04...
I want to see LOB stats……and I’ll bet the Cubs leave a lot out there compared to most…..Dusty no walks or not
The best defense is a good offense.....Lou Pinella...still hasn't managed the Cubs to a post season win. D. Lee still doesn't have a post seasson RBI for Cubs...ditto for Soriano
by kcjones on May 19, 2009 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just read the article
And there’s no data to back this guy up. (the article from the wall street journal). Don’t know where he got his info or stats from but they’re real vague and it sounds as though he’s biased against the cubs, and trying to find data to support that.
Having said that, I have been frustrated on a number of occasions where the cubs had runners on in scoring position and couldn’t move them over. Lots of K’s or non productive outs. But, there has been a lot of mixing and matching in this lineup over the season so far, and I think Al pointed out that only what 6 times has the orginial starting lineup coming out of spring training been used? That right there could account for a lot of strikeouts, guys that aren’t accustomed to hitting in certain situations and spots in the lineup, call ups from the minors, etc. I’m not terribbly worried about this, but it is something to watch over the course of the season.
by nmcubsfan on May 15, 2009 11:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Half the complaints around here are exactly like this
People have a built-in bias about someone or something, then try to justify it by skewing statistics.
Lies, damn lies and statistics.
Lest I be called a Kool-Aid drinker by some, I have said in other threads Gregg deserved all the booing he got Saturday.
by Not Bruce Froemming on May 17, 2009 1:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i hope you and the nmcubsfan are not referring to the person who started this thread
If so, both of you apparently need some elementary reading lessons and I doubt either one of you pick up a WSJ. The data is DIRECTLY from a chart in the article that was PRINTED in the article. Either do your due diligence before typing some inane useless banter or go post on the kiddie board. Classic though – reprinting a story from the WSJ now makes me ‘biased’ against the Cubs. Someone who has attended hundreds of games in the bleachers in my life and watches every game. That’s right. I’m a cub-hater all rate. The bell is ringing boys, I think recess is over.
by BeltwayCubsFan on May 19, 2009 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you do realize
that the “chart” you have posted has no sourcing, right? He just puts numbers up and a % sign behind them.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 19, 2009 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No quantifiying or state\s....
Gregg deserved to be booed as soon as he was obtained…..as one who lives in SF and watched him a lot last year………bout the only team he had any success against was the Cubs…..
The best defense is a good offense.....Lou Pinella...still hasn't managed the Cubs to a post season win. D. Lee still doesn't have a post seasson RBI for Cubs...ditto for Soriano
by kcjones on May 19, 2009 10:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
SF=South Florida
nt
The best defense is a good offense.....Lou Pinella...still hasn't managed the Cubs to a post season win. D. Lee still doesn't have a post seasson RBI for Cubs...ditto for Soriano
by kcjones on May 19, 2009 10:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hendry's tendency to buy chokers...
is finally qunatified ….rah eah rah….AMEN
The best defense is a good offense.....Lou Pinella...still hasn't managed the Cubs to a post season win. D. Lee still doesn't have a post seasson RBI for Cubs...ditto for Soriano
by kcjones on May 19, 2009 10:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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