The Elephant in the Room - Carlos Marmol's Declining Command

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 16, 2009 2:44 PM CDT Comment 98 comments

There's been a lot of discussion about the bullpen this year with some of the struggles we've had at the front-end of the pen and the constant roster turnover we've seen in those areas, but something I haven't seen discussed at length is the drastic loss of command from Carlos Marmol.

I believe this is the Elephant in the Room no one wants to discuss. Last year Marmol was a huge point of discussion with most of the talks focusing on Marmol's extreme usage patterns and the effects in Marmol's effectiveness after the break. Perhaps the best analysis done on this matter came from harbdall times writer Josh Kalk, in this article: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/anatomy-of-a-player-carlos-marmol/

The article was posted in early July just prior to the All Star Break and just prior to Marmol's most memorable meltdown last year on July 12th (Rich Harden's debut) in which he blew a 7-2 lead in the 9th allowing 5 Runs (1 ER) on 4 hits and 1 BB. The article focused mainly on the contention that Marmol was fatigued and the effects of overuse were readily available in the pitch F/X data. Fortunately for us, Marmol got some much needed rest during the all-star break and closed out the year exceptionally strong, posting a 35:10 K:BB Ratio in his final 29 innings

The question now is: are we paying the price this year for the effects of last year or is this simply a bout with command Carlos has had throughout his career?

Because no matter how we look at it, the numbers suggest Carlos' command has been worse this season than at any other point in his career. In order to create an assessment, let's take a look at his statistics and his pitch F/X data.

First, the stats:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marmoca01.shtml

Marmol's K/9 is in decline for the 3rd straight season from 12.5 down to 10.1, still elite but a pretty steep decline nonetheless. At the same time we see a significant increase in the BB/9 up to a career high 9.0 (heading into today's spectacular performance). This is a swift change in direction as Marmol had been steadily improving his command.

Now the Pitch F/X data:

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=2790&position=P

Note, I'm not an expert with Pitch F/X data so please feel free to correct me if i'm wrong, but here are things I notice:

1. Marmol's Fastball velocity is down .5 mph after peaking last season at 94. Conversely, the average velocity of his offspeed pitches are each higher this year. Part of this may be the idea that Marmol is "overthrowing" and as such losing command on his breaking balls.

2. In terms of movement, Carlos is seeing more tail on his 4 seam fastball (a good thing), but losing significant amounts of movement in all of his off speed pitches. To me this suggests instead of being able to "break off" or "snap off" his offspeed stuff, the pitches are hanging a bit more.

3. This is on another FanGraphs page, but Marmol's Contact rates are also up, meaning he's missing less bats.

So here's what we know:

- Marmol's command has been significantly worse this season

- He's lost movement on his breaking pitches, but generally velocity has been fine

- Marmol's been far more hittable this year getting less swings and misses, which has led to an increase in his H/9 and a decerease in his K/9

- since the beginning of 2008 no reliever in baseball has appeared in more games than Carlos Marmol

I've been of the opinion Marmol's been overused for some time and a lack of any semblance of confidence in any other players in the pen has lead to an abuse of one the organization's most prized possessions. With that said, I'm certainly open to other viewpoints or explanations. The one thing we know for sure is we need more outings like the one we got today from Carlos.

So what does everyone think?

Poll

Why has Marmol's control evaporated?

He's been overworked and may be showing signs of fatigue or injury

34 votes

He's battling short-term command issues and he'll be fine

116 votes

150 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

6 recs | Comment 98 comments

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Comments

Might have been the wrong day to post this.

"I daydream just like everybody else, I just do it with my body facing the field, so everybody thinks I'm paying attention."- Greg Maddux

by Doggie Stalker on May 16, 2009 3:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i guess...

but 1 day samples don’t really interest me

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 16, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

and you know from my posts that I think Lou has overused Marmol since last season . I think he has great stuff and if Lou would stop putting him in with big leads and for never more than an inning I think he will be great.

"I daydream just like everybody else, I just do it with my body facing the field, so everybody thinks I'm paying attention."- Greg Maddux

by Doggie Stalker on May 17, 2009 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm concerned about the amount of appearances -

but the lack of command just doesn’t look (to me) like the result of overwork — it often looks like the result of mental breakdowns and getting cute with breaking stuff.

He had an awful run last year, too – and then he came out in Milwaukee and threw nothing but fastballs one time out, which seemed to be a huge confidence builder for him. I think the jury’s still way out on this one.

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on May 16, 2009 3:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Marmol like Zambrano

can beat himself mentally, and when he slumps he tries to over pitch, and I believe that both your options are not the answer, and it is more mental. he is not slumping, he is not injured, he is over thinking everything he does.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 16, 2009 3:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You know this how?

by Acapulco Taco Pie on May 16, 2009 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ever look at them when they are not doing well

and see that they are getting emotionally distraut

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 16, 2009 8:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't possess the ability to know what someone is thinking based upon their body language.

I find it rather humorous that in response to a post based upon statistical analysis one claims to have the answers based upon their ability to read minds. Simply by observing from afar I am unable to know if someone is “over” thinking what they do. I would imagine someone could look emotionally distraught if they were in physical pain. I would think a physician and a psychotherapist would have to examine someone before leaping to conclusions about their physical or emotional well-being.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on May 16, 2009 9:18 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

You know what he means

Anyone that has watched Zambrano lose it on the mound knows what tim is talking about, you are just trying to argue something for the sake of argument.

I'm officially a fan of Bobby Scales

by heine41 on May 17, 2009 1:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You couldn't be more wrong.

I’m curious to know why anyone would think that Marmol has the same “mentality” as Zambrano. I also think it’s ludicrous that fans seem to think they “know” how "certain’ players think. Is there some reason that Marmol and Zambrano have this same mentality? What’s the real key for ct to know this? How is he able to know these two pitchers have the same mental approach? Simply telling me I’m trying to argue is ridiculous and if that’s the best you can do perhaps you should stay out of our discussion. I doubt ct needs you to come to his rescue. People disagree and they are here to attempt to debate these topics if you don’t like my response perhaps you could refute it with actual evidence instead of your presumptions.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on May 17, 2009 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

watch the body language

this is not the first time that

1. this kind of thing about Z or Marmol have been discussed here
2. you have tried to use every post of mine to start an argument

thanks

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 17, 2009 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really can't be bothered to disagree with every post you make.

I just happen to think people try to psychoanalyze players and attribute negative mental characteristics when they have no real knowledge in the matter. I think it’s unfair to basically call Zambrano and Marmol head cases. I just wonder why these two get lumped in together by certain fans. I guess you just know and that’s your right to feel that way. You may want to consider that you are jumping to false conclusions and wonder why you are reaching these conclusions. Good Luck with that.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on May 17, 2009 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've got training in it....

… and I think Zambrano lets his emotions get the better of him. I believe that’s because he’s esentially an overgrown, immature kid. He’s in his late 20’s now, and he’s not all that much better than he was five years ago.

"When they signed Fukudome, I knew they were trying to get me fired". - Ron Santo, January, 2008

by BeerCub on May 17, 2009 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

my point exactly

you have responded to how many other replies about this topic (and this is a theme you have done in other threads before.

And if you have watched the Cubs on TV before, you might remember hearing Brenley make statements about how they are over pitching and that their body language tells the story. Many analyst (not just the Cubs) have talked about that before.

Thanks ATP, have a good day.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 17, 2009 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right those crazy Carloses are all the same.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on May 17, 2009 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think

that’s what Tim is saying, FWIW. He’s saying that people can see that they’re getting upset or shaken as their pitching doesn’t work the way they want it too.

Marmol’s process is very different from Z’s — you can see Z talking to himself, he gestures angrily to himself. Marmol just seems to lose control — bam — like that.

"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley

by drewishdrewid on May 18, 2009 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ty

I had given up trying to explain.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 18, 2009 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh, he just contradicted what you said.

by Wreckard on May 18, 2009 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

no

its the body language that i mention above.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 18, 2009 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

no I didn't.

"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley

by drewishdrewid on May 18, 2009 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not concerned about anything

regarding Marmol.

It’s a long season, and players have their ups and downs. And yes, this most definitely is the wrong day to post this.

by Not Bruce Froemming on May 16, 2009 3:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

so...

i should’ve waited for Marmol to have another outing where he walks multiple batters to post this? Seems to discount the topic as a whole if we’re just making judgments on marmol’s effectiveness day-to-day

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 16, 2009 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think....

… you could have waited to see if today’s outing was the anomaly, or whether he can build on this next time out.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on May 16, 2009 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

when a guy walks

17 guys in 19 appearances

and then bb’s no one in 1 appearance, wouldn’t this BE the anomaly?

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 16, 2009 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

We don't know that yet.

Too early to tell. Maybe he’s turned it around. Let’s revisit three or four appearances from now.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on May 16, 2009 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok....

i thought the point of starting a discussion was when we didn’t know the result…. which is why i brought it up. I started writing it well before Marmol’s entry into today’s game, which i admitted looked a lot better. I wasn’t going to wait until some sort of confirmation to post a topic up for discussion, i thought with Marmol having thrown 18 innings, 1/5th of his usual sample size was a worthy discussion point

i think waiting further is just waiting to support either side… and then 3 or 4 more appearances from now if the results fit someones opinion they’ll declare it over, if they don’t they’ll ask for more time

the point now is to bring this up as a discussion piece and see what people think and if they’re concerned

in general i’m surprised more aren’t concerned by Marmol’s performance so far this season. I tend to think its more of a relative thing that everyone is so focused on other guys in the pen they forget there may be some reason for concern surrounding Marmol

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 16, 2009 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am a bit concerned.

However, I was encouraged by today’s outing. Let’s see what happens with the next two or three.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on May 16, 2009 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with Al.

This well-thought-out post raises several questions about Mármol’s performance that only time can answer conclusively. We’re just hypothesizing at this point. It may be that Mármol performs better the rest of the way and has another excellent season, comparable to last year’s. Or maybe he doesn’t. That doesn’t discount the value of the post. It’s just too early to tell if Mármol is declining or not.

And about Lou’s overuse of Mármol, no argument there.

by Fraggin Judge on May 17, 2009 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's very interesting to look at this now before things get any worse.

We don’t yet know if Marmol is in decline but if he does decline it will be interesting to note his performance along the way.

by Acapulco Taco Pie on May 17, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

by Fraggin Judge on May 17, 2009 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

-1, although I understand the "optimist by nature" is speaking here

But I’m still -1ing because this is a problem we have in general at BCB – people are certain about the whole course of a season after watching one outing or a handful of outings. Jimmy Rollins is hitting .215 and Randy Wells has a 0.00 ERA. Neither of those is a true trend.

DartmouthCubsFan has looked at an issue over the course of this season and last season. I’d say he’s to be commended for posting this on a day Marmol pitched well, instead of waiting for a blowup, just to sway positive responses from temporary emotions.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 17, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He HAS been being overused

But the effects of that wouldn’t be showing this early in a season. In order, to rest him more, the Cubs need more guys that can get outs, but who?

"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti

by wrigleyrocker12 on May 16, 2009 4:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Guzman.

But I disagree that Marmol’s being overused.

"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley

by drewishdrewid on May 16, 2009 11:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jose Ascanio?

He was feasting down in AAA, and he only just turned 25. His peripherals down in AAA were solid and he may be here to stay.

by dakoose on May 17, 2009 1:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great post

I’ve been worried about hm since he hit a bunch of guys in ST, to be honest. And I think you’re right, we could be paying for last years usage.

Hopefully, as Al stated above, he’s turning it around and figuring it out.

One thing that is very positive is that despite his struggles, and the bullpen in general, plus all the injuries, this team is 21-14. Wow!

I have nothing funny or creative to write.

by Canadian Cubs Fan on May 16, 2009 4:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Before we go

Blaming Lou consider that after last season he pitched a full season of winter ball AND came back to ST early for the WBC. I’m not surprised at all that he’s tired. He got through it last year, hopefully he just needs a little time again.

by alwaysacub on May 16, 2009 4:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Marmol did not pitch a whole season in winter ball.

I believe he just pitched a couple of innings in the winter league playoffs.

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on May 16, 2009 6:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

marmol

the walks are very frustrating as this guy was usually lights out. last year he was definitely overused.

by NOMAR on May 16, 2009 5:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Marmol and Zambrano have the same problem

They drop their PAE below their PAS, which causes major tension on the tendons and ligaments in their right arm. It also causes the ball to have a lower release point, that makes you lose velocity, flattens out breaking balls, and unless you want it that way, makes your control worse.

This is a problem that both have developed recently, Zambrano last year and Marmol this year.

Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!

by Cub Style on May 16, 2009 5:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

PAE is Pitching Arm Elbow, PAS is pitching arm shoulder

Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!

by Cub Style on May 16, 2009 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"2. In terms of movement, Carlos is seeing more tail on his 4 seam fastball (a good thing), but losing significant amounts of movement in all of his off speed pitches."

Always good to “see more tail”!!

We're born again, there's new grass on the field. -John Fogerty

by muehlman on May 16, 2009 5:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Carlos doesn't have off speed pitches

He has a slider, which isn’t characterized as an offspeed pitch, it’s a breaking pitch.

Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!

by Cub Style on May 17, 2009 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am concerned too

marmol has been pretty wild this year. He looked great today vs the Astros. Overall we saw him go through a VERY rough time last year, in fact I was even saying to send him back down to Iowa for a week or two there. He just seems to go hot and cold and hopefully he can stay hot for a few months at a time and get us a nice lead in the division :)

by jeff_pico on May 16, 2009 6:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

excellent piece

… and those saying this was a “bad day” to post this have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about.

by shawndgoldman on May 16, 2009 6:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

This is really interesting.

I don’t know what to make of it (i know next to nothing about pitching f/x) but the walks have been concerning.

the added movement to his fastball has been important but it shouldn’t come at losing his plus slider.

thanks for posting.

by Allie on May 16, 2009 6:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Good post..

My elephant in the room though is when will Hoffpauir and D Lee start splitting AB’s…

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

by fischisgod on May 16, 2009 7:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think the answer is "pretty quick", or "it's already happening".

Lou commented yesterday that it’s becoming very difficult not to write Hoff’s name into the lineup card.

We’ve gone over this one many times around here — what was the date cut-off we all decided on for admitting that Lee is struggling and it’s not “early” anymore? Because we’re already up around 115 PA, and it’s looking pretty dismal.

That being said, he’s not going anywhere, and he needs to get it turned around quickly. Between Lee, Soto, Fontenot, and Bradley, the Cubs have a staggering amount of starters who are scuffling around a .200 batting average to start the season. And Bradley, hitting .194, has an OPS+ that’s almost 30 points higher than Lee!

MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown

by D98 on May 16, 2009 11:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perspective

G. Sizemore .220
M. Teixeira .238
J. Rollins .216
B.J. Upton .198
L. Berkman .218
A. Rodriguez .154
C. Quentin .229
M. Holliday .244
D. Ortiz .208
R. Furcal .233
G. Atkins .193
D. Uggla .187

Oh, and by the way, I just want to remind everyone that I went on record back in 1832 that Micah Hoffpauir would be better than all those All-Stars here in 2009 and it’s not too early in the season for me to schedule the “I was right and you were wrong” parade.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 17, 2009 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Almost all of those can be explained.

Teixeira- No A-Rod. Gets all breaking balls.
Upton- Not a that great of contact hitter in the first place. But he is better than .188
Berkman- Sporadic
A-Rod- Just got back from injury.
Quentin- Injuries
Holliday- Playing in a new ball park and a new league.
Ortiz- No Manny, not getting fastballs
Atkins- No Holliday
Uggla- K’s a lot

J-Roll, Furcal, and Sizemore I can’t really explain.

Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!

by Cub Style on May 17, 2009 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

wow

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 17, 2009 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

And, of course,

none of the Cubs’ averages can be explained.

by Not Bruce Froemming on May 17, 2009 8:22 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Furcal

Furcal has a bad back. It may be a permanent problem impacting the rest of his career. He missed a big chunk of last season and has to take off time this season.

by frustratedfan on May 21, 2009 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looking at his Fangraph's page,

his velocity seems to have gone up. His FB is exactly the same, averaging 93.7 MPH, while his SL at 83, up from 81.9. I think he’ just struggling a bit with his control, and that he’ll turn it around soon.

by dakoose on May 16, 2009 7:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

There's always an elephant in the room

with some Cubs fans, I guess.

He was just off for two days before he pitched today. Piniella says Marmol has to pitch somewhat regularly or he loses sharpness.

I don’t think he’s been “abused” this season at all.

by Not Bruce Froemming on May 16, 2009 8:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

do you see how contradictory that was?

comment 1: Marmol was off for two days

comment 2: Piniella says Marmol has to pitch regularly or he loses sharpness

results: Marmol had arguably his best day of the season AFTER getting the two days of rest….

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 16, 2009 10:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

as opposed to four

we’ve all seen Marmol come back after four or five days of rest, and walk one or two batters before he gets his slider in the strike zone.

"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley

by drewishdrewid on May 16, 2009 11:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

his splits would disagree with you

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=marmoca01&year=Career&t=p

0 Days GR .539 OPS, 2.09 K/BB
1 Days GR .510 OPS, 2.43 K/BB
2 Days GR .710 OPS, 2.62 K/BB
3 Days GR .627 OPS, 4.00 K/BB
4 Days GR .342 OPS, 1.86 K/BB
5 Days GR .286 OPS, INF K/BB

While there’s some truth to Marmol pitching better on short rest as opposed to intermediate rest, he’s truly at his best when not throwing for 4 or 5 days. In addition his command seems to steadily get better as his rest increases

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 16, 2009 11:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's the sample size on the 3/4/5 day rest numbers?

I’m guessing it’s pretty small, given the number of appearances he makes.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on May 17, 2009 4:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i included the link

so people could easily view it

here are the PAs:

0 days – 209
1 days – 284
2 days – 114
3 days – 75
4 days – 35
5 days – 7

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 17, 2009 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pretty small number of PA's on 3, 4 and 5 days rest.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on May 17, 2009 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marmol was one of the top pitchers in abuse points last season

He is Lou’s blankie and the more the bullpen sucks the more Marmol will get abused. Which only makes things worse. There is plenty of cause for concern over Marmol being abused and collapsing like he did last season.

Fact is this season he hasn’t been all that great. So far he has been worth negative salary this season. Too many walks which he doesn’t pay for most of the time because of his good stuff.

Hey the Cubs are good again! This will be a good test of a sig jinx.

by nji232 on May 16, 2009 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If your research is so solid

Why don’t you go to the Cubs and present it to them? I would think they’d be quite interested in it.

by Not Bruce Froemming on May 17, 2009 1:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because that's possible

Hey the Cubs are good again! This will be a good test of a sig jinx.

by nji232 on May 17, 2009 1:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

by Not Bruce Froemming on May 17, 2009 1:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He doesn't have to.

They signed Gregg, they knew Marmol might not be ready to be a closer.

Do you?

by Realist Larry on May 17, 2009 1:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent post,

although it’s hard to judge the fancy stats.

But you don’t need them, your points are obvious.
He’s been a little inconsistent ever since he came up, I think the real question is whether this is his peak and how he’ll always be ( I finally realized that’s the case w/ Zambrano and gave up hoping for that magical, consistent season, 20 wins, ERA under 3.00),

or will he grow (mentally) and improve.
I hope the latter, but think this is probably just what we have in him.

by Realist Larry on May 17, 2009 1:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

That could be true

I’ve thought the same thing about Zambrano and Marmol. Overall, while a good pitcher,he should stil be steadily improving, but he seems to have leveled out or even regressed a bit. IMHO, I think it’s in his head. I have a suspicion he’s alays going to be a temperamental guy who can’t quite harness his emotions.

I don’t think emotions are Marmol’s problems though. We forget he started out as a catcher, and he’s only been a pitcher about 5-6 years. I fault the teaching he’s been given, or not given, as the case may be. Too often I believe he’s gotten by on sheer ability. Pairing him with a catcher who is able to go out and correct him, whether it be his arm slot, release point, or whatever, is key. Not having Blanco around, even if it was just on the bench, could be one of the issues.

"When they signed Fukudome, I knew they were trying to get me fired". - Ron Santo, January, 2008

by BeerCub on May 17, 2009 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hard to know the true story, but he throws a wicked ball.

there’s hope that he could be an elite closer in the next couple of years.
He’s fun to watch and I hope he continues to improve.

I hate the WBC and its effect on MLB and have to give the kid a pass at this point. I just think it screws up the whole preparation timetable.
I’d love to see the Cubs Just Say No to the WBC.

by Realist Larry on May 17, 2009 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You and me both

Ithink the WBC is a monumental waste of time.

"When they signed Fukudome, I knew they were trying to get me fired". - Ron Santo, January, 2008

by BeerCub on May 17, 2009 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looking through the game logs

He’s had one absolutely awful outing – 4/29 – 0.1 IP, 4 BB, 4 ER

Of his 20 appearances (18 IP):
12 games where he’s allowed 1 or fewer baserunners.
5 games allowing 2 baserunners
3 games allowing 3 or more

In those games he has allowed three or more baserunners he has issued 8 BB in 2.1 IP

Carlos seems to have blowup games where he loses command, walks guys and it gets out of control. But its not consistent. He has many more quality outings than bad ones. He still has the electric stuff and he can still baffle guys.

I think that kind of inconsistency may be more about the game between the ears.

"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella

by El Borto on May 17, 2009 10:36 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs

I don't think it's time to panic...

…but this is a legit concern. I thought it seemed like Marmol was “pitching to contact” (whether intentionally or otherwise) more and K’ing fewer batters so far this season, and the numbers seem to bear that out.

Honestly, if I didn’t know who Carlos Marmol was and looked at his BB/9, K:BB and WHIP, I’d not have too high of an opinion on him. Interestingly, he’s still striking out batters at a rate of 11 per nine innings – he has 22 Ks in 18 IP. Not too shabby. But his high number of walks is troubling. He’s already hit three batters, too – that’s half of his HBP all of last season.

But it is still relatively early, and Marmol has always struck me as the kind of pitcher who will have to battle himself as much as opposing hitters to get good results. So I’m still leaning toward the optimistic and feeling that he’ll get his control under control and end the season in fairly good shape. We should also bear in mind that he had one hell of a great season last year – just filthy numbers – so it may be asking a bit much for him to rise to quite those heights again.

I said it in spring training and I’ll say it again now: It would be great if Angel Guzman could continue to pitch well (so far, so pretty good) and take some of the heat off of Carlos’ weary shoulders.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on May 18, 2009 11:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think you have to factor in his injury. A pitcher's legs are almost as

his arm. Carlos had a knee injury this year and it’s been kind of glossed over. He was struggling a bit when he injured it and it took him a few starts to regain his form. He is almost back to his old self know and I think he will pitch much better the rest of the season.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on May 18, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marmol has endured heavy workload out of necessity

This is a point the sabermagicians can never wrap their sliderules around. Marmol is paid to pitch, period. On a good playoff contending team the primary set-up man can be expected to log a HEAVY workload, as was the case with Marmol in 2007 and 2008. Lou Piniella worked Marmol hard out of necessity. Is it coming back to bite now? Perhaps. If you take a look at the history of primetime set-up men for good ballclubs their sustainability of quality doesn’t last too long. Look at Scott Proctor with the Yankees from a few years ago as great example. Hence why in my opinion it made the most sense to make Carlos Marmol the closer in 2009. The closer is a role that is insulated from over-usage in large measure. Limited to the 9th inning and one inning stints where your team has a 1 to 3 run lead in 95% of the circumstances.

by BLou on May 18, 2009 9:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

So, let me get this straight.

You’re arguing that you have to overwork the setup man? In other words, it was impossible for the Cubs to trade in a few regular season wins last year in order to maximize their talent’s capabilities in the post-season and in seasons to come. That’s your strategy to win now, right?

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 19, 2009 8:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whatever

Fact: Primary set-up men on playoff contending ballclubs invariably endure a very heavy workload.

Opinion: Carlos Marmol was not used more than necessary by Lou Piniella. Mission is to win ballgames in order to make the playoffs. You can’t unduly compromise the ability to win ballgames during the season. Throwing Bob Howry and the other dubious middle relievers of 2007 and 2008 into late inning “game situations” was already pushed beyond its reasonable limit.

Fact: Primary set-up men don’t often have long periods of stellar effectiveness. Invariably they succumb in some form. Either they lose effectiveness after a period of a couple of years or they go down with injuries. Howry, Dotel, Linebrink, Proctor, Zumaya, etc… are examples of this.

Opinion: The most prudent decision would have been to let Marmol become closer this season. One, he earned the right to that job. Two, serving as closer provides a natural insulation to heavy use the same of which does not apply to the role of set-up man.

Lou Piniella didn’t ruin Marmol. This is an argument the sabermagicans love to make in the same way they rail against other managers like Joe Torre and Dusty Baker.

Carlos Marmol is analagous to a Porsche. You have a shiny high horsepower one sitting in the garage. You can either put a tarp over the Porsche and rarely drive it in the hopes that it’s market value will stay steady or even appreciate to collector status several years down the road. Or you can take the Porsche out on the road and see what she can do in fulfillment of your Pavlovian need for excitement and entertainment in your life. But doing so means the Porsche will depreciate in value and need routine maintenance and upkeep. Is it worth it? Yes.

by BLou on May 19, 2009 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This seems delightfully inconsistent.

We’ll start with where I agree – first, that relievers in general have low shelf-lives, probably for several reasons connected to why they aren’t starters in the first place. The racecar analogy is a good one. They perform at a high level in a way that doesn’t make them suited for long-term use. Spot-on analogy. Well put. Second, being The Guy in the bullpen most trusted to get you out of sticky situations will lead to over-uses by definition. If there’s only one The Guy and you use him whenever there are worries – yes, he’ll get over-used.

So, here’s where the fun gets going – you seem to be arguing that Lou isn’t to be blamed for overuse because you can’t overuse a setup man. (Marmol was used more than any other reliever, so, by definition, you’re arguing that no setup-man can be over-used.) But, then, showing concern for Marmol’s arm, you suggest he be made closer because then he wouldn’t be over-used.

In other words, you agree that Marmol’s arm should be protected, and even, by implication, that he was over-used – it’s just that given the role he was in, nothing counts as over-use.

But, see, what I’m arguing, if I use your definition of set-up man, is that the whole role of set-up man actually makes it harder to win a World Series in your 2-5 year window, because your best reliever is going to tend to be ineffective when you need him most. Why not make Marmol a simple 8th-inning only guy if you think he can’t hold up to the set-up man role? Why not change his role?

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 19, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Porsche

However, you don’t need to take the Porsche out to commute on the Kennedy in Rush Hour. And that’s part of the problem with Lou’s use of Marmol last season. He treated the Porsche as if it was his everyday commuting car.

by frustratedfan on May 21, 2009 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's easy to talk about "trading in a few regular season games...." after the season's over.

Not so easy to do when you’re in a fight for the division, you’re the manager, and your team hasn’t won a WS in 100 years!
That’s too much hindsight.

by Realist Larry on May 20, 2009 12:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If 7.5 games is too much hindsight

then your manager has no foresight.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 20, 2009 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

August 24, 2008-we are only up 4.5 on Milw., and they've won 4 in a row.

Aug. 31-still up only 4.5, Milw. has won 3 in a row, Cubs lost 2.

Sept. 5th-Cubs in a 6 game losing streak!

Sept 10th—still only 4.5 up.

We didn’t exactly run away with the division last year. There was some room to rest him at the end-but then, what if he loses his sharpness?

Hindsight is all it is.

by Realist Larry on May 20, 2009 9:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

how about those numbers against the wild card?

Aug 21st – 8 game lead on wildcard
Aug 31st – 10 game lead on wildcard
Sep 5th- 8 game lead on wildcard
Sep 10th – 8.5 game lead on wildcard

The Cubs were never in jeopardy of a playoff spot last year after August 15th or so

note i used all the same dates you used which ALL have a bias of the Cubs having just lost and Milwaukee having just won…. no endpoint bias there at all….

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 21, 2009 7:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

All true, but I'm thinking they want to win the division, not throw games and slide in as a WC.

That wouldn’t exactly be momentum.

Not that they HAD momentum-unlike many here, I was not impressed by how they finished the reg. season last year and was completely unsurprised by the Dodgers sweep.
I think Lou wanted to get that team hot again.

We can agree to disagree on those points, but I wouldn’t want a manager looking at WC standings when the division’s stilll close.
You seem to be comfortable with that.

by Realist Larry on May 22, 2009 12:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

Blame Bob Howry most of all. If Howry would have held up his end of the bargain in 2008 then Carlos Marmol would not have endured the workload he did. I won’t even get into the unreliability of Michael Wuertz, Kevin Hart and some of the other names we had to endure.

I said during the offseason that Carlos Marmol in my view “earned” the right to be closer. We can debate the right or wrong of things, but two facts are clear.

A. Closers get the money and the fame
B. Closers are naturally insulated from over-use, unlike primary set-up men on playoff chasing teams

With Kerry Wood moving on I would have absolutely named Carlos Marmol my closer in 2009. He earned the right to bask in the glow of closing and to have the earning potential that comes with being a closer. Plus his role would have been defined as the 9th inning guy limited to 1 inning stints in games the Cubs held slim lead in (i.e., that natural insulation to over-use thing).

If you wanted to “smoke” an arm in 2009, then I would smoke the arm of Kevin Gregg. Gregg’s contract expires after this season. Truth be told if we were to burn through his arm in the primary set-up role then I wouldn’t be terribly choked up.

by BLou on May 19, 2009 3:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

except

that it was be terrible use of the pen.

Marmol needs to be the fireman. He’s the best at coming in and shutting down innings when the other guys have two runners on, and no outs.

You want Kevin Gregg to be that guy?

I don’t give a darn about Marmol’s fame or money. I want the pen used CORRECTLY. Pulling Marmol away from the Fireman slot and only using him to close is a WASTE of his talent.

"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley

by drewishdrewid on May 19, 2009 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

take Marmol out of the 8th

and who gets the game to him? People seem to forget that part of the idea. If you put Marmol in the 9th saving games, then you are moving Gregg to the “bridge” and expecting him to be able to get the most important outs (as you described, two on no outs, and to add to it Pujols in the hole)

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 19, 2009 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

exactly.

Now, if Guzman continues to refine his control, it’s possible that he might be able to move into that role more as the year progresses. Certainly, I could see Guzman being the fireman and Marmol being the closer in 2010. That would still require us to find a 7th inning guy, of course.

"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley

by drewishdrewid on May 19, 2009 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would want someone between them

Guz in 7 Marmol in 9. They are similar pitchers and would be better to have someone with more off speed pitches between them IMO

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 19, 2009 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which is why he was overused the last few years as BLou said.

Who the heck else was going to get the game to Wood?

by Realist Larry on May 20, 2009 12:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree about preferring to burn out the arms that will soon be free agents.

But why burn out any arm? Why not trade two regular season wins for more rested relievers all-around? Think of it this way – what if Dusty Baker hadn’t burned out Howry and Eyre their first years here in a season where wins did nothing but boost his own career #s and lower our draft order? What if we could have burned them both out last year? Oh well.

I’ll say this – our pen seems worse for the lack of a basic innings-muncher, a Jason Marquis of relievers, a guy who can be counted on for consistency but nothing spectacular, i.e. what Chad Gaudin was supposed to be.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 19, 2009 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

His name is Sean Marshall

Hence why I endorse the idea of moving Marshall to the pen when Zambrano returns. Marshall can be a critically valuable part of that bullpen.

by BLou on May 19, 2009 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I tended to agree with that pre-season

but Marshall has finally been showing that he can pitch past the 3-4th inning and get people out the third time through the order. He’s proving he can be a starter. He’s more valuable to us as a starter than as this kind of reliever.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 19, 2009 7:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Relievers...

have one dynamite pitch to be effective, ie Rivera’s cutter, Hoffman’s change, etc… Sean doesn’t have one dynamite pitch, he has a balanced repertoire.

Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!

by Cub Style on May 19, 2009 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs