My stance on Lee (or a "Detailed statistical analysis of Derrek Lee", as recommended by Al)
by vivaelpujols on May 2, 2009 4:14 AM CDT
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PrintI'm sorry for another D-Lee post. I originally was going to put this in the comments of "The myth that Derrek Lee is NOT declining" post, however, it got really long and I thought that my point of view was a lot different from the other two posts.
While DGU and mutleyi both had excellent statistical posts displaying their respective points of view, I felt that they really didn't give enough info as to why Lee may or may not be declining. The golden rule of statistics is that "correlation doesn't imply causation". So the fact that Lee's stats may or may not have gotten worse, doesn't prove that they will continue to get worse. This post will hopefully serve to clarify why Lee's numbers have dropped, and whether or not they will continue to.
First of all, I wouldn't recommend that you use his actual results (OPS+, wOBA, BA/OBP/SLG) to try to show decline or vice versa. Those overall results are largely affected by luck and they don't really represent a players true talent level. The stats that I would use to show decline are BB%, K% and ISO; and to a lesser extent Fly Ball%, Ground Ball% and Line Drive% and home run/fly ball ratio. Those stats are more or less under a players control, and they generally correlate well from year to year, meaning that they pretty much represent a players true talent level. Fortunately, all of that data is available on his FanGraphs player page.
So starting from 2005, the season that obviously represents his peak performance, we can see how his numbers have trended:
2005 (691 PA): 12.5 BB%, 18.4 K%, .327 ISO, 22.0 LD%, 38.6 GB%, 39.4 FB%, 23.7 HR/FB
2006 (204 PA): 12.5 BB%, 23.4 K%, .189 ISO, 20.3 LD%, 41.3 GB%, 38.4 FB%, 15.1 HR/FB
2007 (650): 11.1 BB%, 20.1 K%, .196 ISO, 20.6 LD%, 41.2 GB%, 38.2 FB%, 12.6 HR/FB
2008 (698 PA): 10.2 K%, 19.1 K%, .172 ISO, 21.5 LD%, 44.9 GB%, 33.7FB%, 11.7 HR/FB
The first thing I look at is the drop in power. In 2006 and 2007, his FB% remained basically the same as in 2005, however, his HR/FB dropped precipitously which lead to a big drop in his ISO. That either means that he was incredibly lucky in 2005 (meaning he had a lot of just over the fence homers), or the wrist injury that he suffered in 2006 really affected his power for the long term. I would think that it would be a combination of the two. As you may also notice, his approach remained basically the same (his BB%, GB% and LD% were all very similar from 05-07), so the only thing that really changed was the decline in power.
Then 2008 happened. His BB% dropped, his K% dropped, his HR/FB dropped, his ISO dropped, his GB% raised, his FB% dropped, and his LD% raised. In short, he became less of a slugger, and more of a contact hitter. That showed up in his overall slash line of .291/.361/.462, which was only slightly above average for a first baseman in the NL.
So, the debate is basically over which Lee is the real Lee. Is he the high walk, high strikeout, high-ish fly ball, moderate power player that he was in 06 and 07, and last year simply was an "off year"; or is he truly the higher contact, higher groundball, lower power, lower walk player that he was last year?
To attempt to answer to that question, I looked at his (admittedly small sample size) numbers this year:
2009 (83): 8.6 BB%, 18.9 K%, .095 ISO, 8.1 LD%, 37.1 GB%. 54.8 FB%, 2.9 HR/FB
Now Derrek Lee is obviously in an extended slump so far this year, so it is imperative to try to differentiate between his slow start and actual evidence of decline. His LD% for example, doesn't really prove anything. He has consistently been over 20% over the past 4 years, and his super low mark this year is likely just because of the fact that he is in a slump. Countering that is his FB%. If you go to his FanGraphs page you may notice that his infield fly ball rate is over 20%. His career rate is 7.6% and he has averaged around 4% over the past 3 years. That number will regress as he starts to square the ball up better, and it will likely manifest itself in more line drives.
The number's so far that I am intruiged by are his continued drop in BB%, to where he is now below average. If you look at his plate discipline stats, you can see that his O-Swing% (which measures how many pitches out of the strike zone a batter swings at) is at a career high. That is clearly not a good sign. In fact, his O-Swing% has raised in each of the last few seasons. Again, not a very good sign.
A sign that he isn't in decline is that his FB% is up and his GB% is down. Even if you regress his infield fly ball percentage to his career average, his GB/FB ratio would be around his 06/07 levels. On the other hand, he simply isn't hitting those fly balls very far. His is popping the ball up a lot, and the ones that he is driving aren't really going anywhere. You can really see that by his hit chart, found at mlb.com (these are only his fly balls and homers hit at home, so the data isn't complete... small sample size caveats apply):
2009
So, despite that one warning track shot, Lee looks like his power has been sapped. Even when hits the ball into the outfield, they just don't have a lot of umph behind them. Here is his 2008 fly ball and homer chart (only at Wrigley) for comparison:
2008
So, he had his share of crappily hit fly balls last year, however as you can tell, a larger percentage of his fly balls were hit very far than they have been this year. Once again, small sample size this year, but it's still an interesting comparison.
My conclusion is that Lee is in decline. His plate discipline and power have been steadily dropping since 2005, and while they will certainly not be as bad as they have been this year, I think that this exaggerates the current trend that he is in.
That is the offensive aspect of it. Defensively, I would like to clear some things up. Here is a cursory look at his UZR ratings (which measure runs saved above an average defender):
2005 (1386.0 innings): -3.7
2006 (393.2 innings) : +0.2
2007 (1274.1 innings) : -0.5
2008 (1339.1 innings): +5.2
UZR isn't perfect, but over a large sample size (about 1000 innings in the field), they are pretty reliable, generally with a +/- of 5 runs.
So before 2008, he had pretty much established himself as a slightly below average defender. Given the fact that fielders generally peak in their 20's, and assuming a lot of the usual caveats of UZR type metrics, I would call his 2008 season a fluke defensively. He may have made some adjustments that allowed him to be better, but it is pretty hard to improve your range at 32 years old.
I would probably call Lee an average defender for this year, incorporating the possibility that last year represented a true improvement in his skills, but also the possibility that it could have been a fluke. If you think that his main value defensively, is that he is able to scoop up bad throws, than you could probably call him a +5 defender overall.
So my total projections for Lee this year, are that he will be an average first baseman. Assuming further decline in some of his skills, coupled with some regression, I think that his slash line will be something like .300/.360/.460 for the rest of this season (feel free to disagree with that), which would make his overall season line something like .290/.350/.440. The average first baseman had an .838 OPS last year, so that would make Lee a little below average offensively. Add in slightly above average defense, an he would basically be a league average first baseman. That isn't terrible. That would be worth around 9 million on the free agent market, so the Cubs wouldn't be overpaying for Lee that drastically.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Those hit charts are from last year.
I’d like to see this year’s, even though it’s a “small sample size”. It appears that he hit most of his fly balls to right field last year. I don’t have numbers or charts, but it seems to me he’s doing the same thing this year. That says to me that he’s having trouble turning on the ball, which would imply that regardless of how he says he feels, the neck and back problems are not allowing him to turn on the ball the way he did in 2005, or even in April 2008.
He needs some time to rest the injury.
Thanks for posting this detailed analysis, and although when I first saw the subject line I did say “Not another one”, this was valuable. A better title might have been “Detailed statistical analysis of Derrek Lee” or something like that, to differentiate your post from the others.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I'm pretty sure that the first hit chart is from this year
The second one is from 2008.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
I see that now.
The pattern appears similar, doesn’t it?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Well it seems like Lee doesn't really have much opposite field power anymore
Most of his homers last year were pulled, and when he hit them the other way, they would die out. Unfortunately, the majority of his fly balls are hit the other way, which would explain the drop in homers.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
The problem seems more that...
… he can’t turn on the ball. Are there similar charts available for 2004 and 2005? If so, I’d bet you’d see more fly balls hit to left field.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Here is his 2005
So, that year his distribution was pretty equal. And most of his homers were pulled. Here is his 2007 one for comparison:
So they look pretty much the same. He obviously hit more homers in 05, but his distribution of fly balls was similar. Last year was a pretty radical change.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
If you could break it down by month...
… I’ll bet you’d see the radical change occur sometime in May, around the time he had the neck problems begin.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
That would be interesting
Unfortunately, MLB.com doesn’t offer splits like that. I’d bet that cwyers could do that. He probably has a Gameday database, and he could probably split it up by month.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
Very interesting analysis with good detail. Thanks for the post.
Recommended.
"I'm not much of a chemistry guy, you know. Chemistry to me is a pinch-hit double with the bases loaded"--Jim Frey, Chicago Tribune, 1985.
Outstanding work, vivaelpujols.
I personally tend to agree with the analysis that he is in decline, and has regressed or is regressing toward league average. A lot of the time, I think he gets the benefit of the doubt based on past perceived value and nostalgic refusal by some to admit that the years are catching up to him.
Something else may be in play that, to my knowledge, has no statistical measure. That is, the inevitable slowing of reaction time, good old hand-eye coordination. Part of this can be ocular, but another portion of it is mental acuity. In the same way older people tend to drive much slower because their reaction times increase, maybe part of it is that he’s just aging. I remember Sammy Sosa hitting unusually better in the rain during his last year with the Cubs, as compared to a sunny day, and I often wondered if his vision had deteriorated somewhat (possibly a result of the Torres beanball), and he could visualize the path of a thrown pitch better as it travelled through rain because its effects on the falling water around and on it created a tracer or visible arc line.
Derrek Lee appears to be like the rest of us and is not immune to the passage of time.
"I'll never forget how I felt last October." ~Kosuke Fukudome
Yeah, Thanks! i think you really added to this discussion...
…and the way that you wrote it made it sound like you did not have a particular axe to grind.
In one sense Lee is being penalized by many of us fans today for a phenomenal year that he had in 2005 (that was nearly impossible for him to replicate). Even if many of us understand that he can’t play at that high of a level again, we still that acceptable is something reasonably close to it, when in his case a reasonable year would be quite a bit different.
Also, there are some excellent firstbasemen in the NLCD, as your screen name attests, and I think that creates higher expectations from many of us, too.
Finally, when Lee gets out of his slump it sounds like he could be a decent No. 2 hitter, but since he’s not left handed (the key to success as a Cub these days), he’ll probably end up hitting down in the lineup. I think your numbers suggest that Lou should be batting him down in the future. The lineup order is over rated but at the same time the best hitter is usually hitting third and that itself creates expectations that his skills may not be able to satisfy.
Rec'd
Thanks v.e.p. for a solid and insightful post.
A few comments before I have to get to work.
I agree with much of what you write here. My only real complaint, if I’d even call it that, is that I think the sense in which Derrek Lee is “in decline” gets exaggerated whenever we make 2005, his career year, the starting point of looking at his career’s arc. Cub fans may have hoped that the 2005 Lee was going to be the Lee they saw going forward. I’m not sure we ever should have expected that. Lee’s ISO pre-2005 averaged around .220. A .100 point jump is remarkable. There is still a drop in post-2005 ISO. The big question about that drop is whether it reflects a more serious decline or reflects ongoing battles with injury that could be concluded at some point in the future, allowing something of a rebound.
Lee’s drop in BB% is very interesting considering that other Cubs have appeared to be in a different trend under the management of Gerald Perry. Perhaps he is pressing to get out of this slump. Perhaps pitchers aware of the slump are not afraid to challenge him and refuse to walk him. It’s definitely worth watching.
As for the d-word…. I never meant to suggest that a 33 year old is not aging or in the standard age-induced longterm decline that almost all ballplayers face. My post was responding to a narrative which was more apt to compare Lee to pre-Ranger Andruw Jones, a narrative that was using the word “decline” on this site to mean “falling off the cliff.” I still do not accept the simplistic view of age-related decline which thinks a 33 year old player can only get worse from the immediate season prior. Plenty of players have limited rebounds within their overall decline. (I do not intend to suggest v.e.p. is an adherent of that view either.)
Indeed, I wonder how many people will catch that v.e.p. and I both conclude nearly the same thing about Lee’s 2009 season, that he will most likely hit around .300/.360/.460 going forward. v.e.p. prefers to downgrade the pre-season projection by his current slump. I prefer to assume that the overall season projection included slumps.
Anyway, an excellent analysis overall. Thanks.
Derrek Lee is good.
I have extraordinarly difficult time seeing Lee achieve .300/.360/.460
His at bats are not looking good at all. He is guessing on pitches way too much. He is also cheating up in the batter box when the guess is fastball. I also don’t adhere to the “silver bullet” solution around here that says all Lee needs is to regain health. I don’t see this magical fountain of rejuvenated health coming that some of you insist. If the wrist is the excuse / problem since 2005, then it will continue to be so at this point. Likewise the fame can be said for the serious proposition of a compressed disk in the neck. Those things don’t cure themselves if they haven’t already.
The window for winning a World Series may have waned.
If achieves .300/.360/.460 this year.........
I’ll donate $200.00 to the charity of his choice
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
That would be Project 3000, don'tcha think?
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Nice work
I also agree he’s on the decline, and if the Cubs want to be a good team, they might need to play Hoff more. Let Fox sit it out in the minors for one year, trade Lee this offseason, then you can start Fox next year, if he can continue his great numbers. The problem I have with starting Hoff, is that he’s 30, and is likely in his prime right now. Fox is only 26.
"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti
Hoffpauir and Fox are not long term answers.
I don’t know what is, but those guys are temporary fixes, if that.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I'm not excpecting Hoff to be that
But Fox maybe, only because he’s younger. But why can’t he be a long term answer? This point has been bought up that the Cubs never raise their own players, so why can’t they do it with Fox? If it doesn’t work out, how do you suggest we fix this?
"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti
by wrigleyrocker12 on May 2, 2009 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions
he can't field his position
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
People always complain Theriot can't
But his offense makes up for it. If Fox proves himself to have good offense, I think you’ll be alright with bad defense.
"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti
by wrigleyrocker12 on May 2, 2009 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions
apples and oranges
Theriot is said he can’t field his position because of his range——-Fox can’t catch the ball
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Wow
Too bad his fielding percentage in the minors is almost 99%.
"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti
by wrigleyrocker12 on May 2, 2009 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Fielding percentage...
is one of the most overrated stats in baseball. In means nothing.
You knocked Theriot saying his offense makes up for it, but UZR has regarded Theriot as an average SS the last 2 years (IIRC). He may be down this year, but he’s not exactly an embarassment in the field like Fox most likely would be.
Free Ronny Cedeno
How is it overrated?
It’s how many times you make a play. It’s as simple as that.
"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti
by wrigleyrocker12 on May 2, 2009 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions
Two issues with fielding %, especially for 1B...
1. it only captures balls that you get to, not balls that you couldn’t get to. that means a player with no range at all isn’t penalized for not getting to a ball that a good fielder would get to.
2. for 1B, 99% isn’t actually that high. virtually every 1B in baseball has a 99% fielding percentage. The lowest among regulars in 2009 was .988. Because of that, it’s a pretty poor measure. For example, Albert Pujols is probably the best defensive 1B in baseball right now. But he had a .996 fielding %. Conversely, Kevin Millar and Carlos Delgado are basically DH playing 1B, and they had a .995 and .994 percentage, respectively.
by SouthernCub on May 2, 2009 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
edit: 2008, not 2009...
obviously the 2009 season is too small a sample.
make a play on a ball hit to you
it does not take range factor into consideration
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
When someone says...
that a player “can’t catch the ball” fielding percentage is perfectly valid to counter that. Now, if we’re talking about looking at a players defense overall, I agree that fielding percentage is pretty worthless. But I don’t think any stats can truly measure a player’s worth defensively.
Why do you believe UZR to be dependable?
1. UZR is pretty new.
2. UZR still depends on subjective judgment.
The combination of those two things can have big effects that bias the results. My understanding is that UZR uses batted-ball statistics. There is some inconsistency in how line drives are distinguished from fly balls, and in distinguishing hard-hit balls from other ones.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-i-hate-about-line-drives/
When you look at players’ year-to-year fluctuations in UZR you start to wonder about it, and you consider the source of the original data. It’s a new-ish and quite obscure type of data. Where an official scorer could very well come under public criticism for being too harsh or too easy on error-vs-hit calls, someone collecting batted-ball numbers can very well continue to make judgments differing from those people in other parks are making.
I think UZR is promising, and a step in the right direction. And I think batted ball stat collection could improve (people recording those numbers will probably standardize more as their work becomes more visible, and ultimately I wouldn’t be surprised to see a PitchFX-like system for batted balls). I wouldn’t call it dependable at this early stage, though.
It's pretty dependable after a large sample size
After maybe 2 years or 2000 innings, the error bars start to fade away, and we can pretty confidently put someone in -10,-5,0,5,+10 range. You’re right that after a year it is not too reliable, but when you are talking about a player who has a large sample size, and hovers around the same mark for a while, like Lee, than you can correctly call him a ___________ defender.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
The Cubs are very rich.
D-Lee will finish out his contract, and then we will steal some other up-and-coming 1B from a poorer team, the same way we got D-Lee.
Hoff and Fox look like very good bench bats – Hoff may be able to put together a nice little 4-5 year MLB career based on his (admittedly limited) versatility and his (also limited) track record of success at this level.
But seriously, the Cubs are unlikely to be able to trade D-Lee without taking on most of his contract, and if they’re doing that, why bother? He’s a great guy – it’s not like they have to be rid of him – and even if he needs more rest in 2010, well, that’s why we have Hoff.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on May 4, 2009 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions
Maybe the Cubs organization doesn't want to trade him. Did anybody
ever think of that? I realize the thought of getting a young power-hitting first basman is intriguing, but maybe the Cubs aren’t considering moving him. I know a lot of posters are giddy at the fact that someone else could be playing first base, but maybe the organization has looked at all of the factors, age, NTC, etc. and figured that he will be here for the remainder of his contract.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on May 4, 2009 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Isn't that... exactly what I just said?
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on May 4, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions
I wasn't trying to contradict you. I was adding to your post. We are in agreement.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on May 5, 2009 12:21 AM CDT up reply actions
Lee is still a better player than Hoff or Fox
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
I think your stats prove..........
he may not be for long
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
"My" stat's don't prove anything
My opinion is that he will end up offering the production of a league average first baseman, which I think is better than what Hoff or Fox could do.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 3, 2009 12:34 AM CDT up reply actions
sorry, wrong choice of words on my part............
your stats suggest to me, and it’s only my opinion, that Lee won’t have a league average year of production for a 1st baseman in 2009, and both Fox or Hoffpauir would outproduce Lee on offense and defense.
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
Yeah but Hoff
Is probably in his prim right now, it won’t last for long. That’s why I think they should get rid of him right now, while he still has value.
"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti
by wrigleyrocker12 on May 3, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions
I think everyone knows that about Hoffpauir.
He probably has a 2-3 year window of this level of production (granted, he has been “hot” since arriving at MLB, so it probably won’t be .350-style production), and maybe 4-5 years left in the career total.
The Cubs aren’t going to get much for him, so why trade him? He’s exactly what we need – an offensively gifted backup 1B who can spell our aging hero and brittle RF once or twice a week.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on May 4, 2009 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions
Kudos on being one of the absolute best posters on this board
I like also how you take emotion out of the arguments.
In my OPINION, Derrek Lee is an increasingly problematic ballplayer for the Cubs. I envision a steeper falloff going forward than the statistical trend lines indicate.
The window for winning a World Series may have waned.
For someone who inserts emotion IN to all of his arguments...
I find the first sentence in your post amusing.
I think it's perfectly possible to include emotion in posts...
..and still justly and fairly dialogue about these types of things; but in this situation, you are right, Mike, the Lee argument is hotly debated because of what he brings besides statistics (read: leadership), and some times we just have to look at the facts, not the opinions. Albeit, both are useful.
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
This was an excellent report---something that would have been placed on my desk
It substantiates something the eye appears to see without putting the finger on that data. Lee’s power when he came to the Cubs was right center and left center in that order. In fact the biggest hit of his career was against the Cubs in 2003 when he hit a double into the right field gap in the 8th inning of the 6th game of the NLCS that crushed the Cubs.
He cannot bat in the meat of the order anymore. Now should Piniella begin the process of platooning him? Not just right lefty but situational with Hoffpauir, putting Hoffpauir in situations that he can produce.
The long term option is to move Ramirez to 1B, that transition might be next year or in 2011 and consequently why Vitters now becomes even more critical.
Lee was a good player until he got hurt—-the wrist injury really has effected him—-he now has to adjust or if he has than the league is now on top of him. This is sad, and Lou has to manage around it.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Lee is at a stage where he should bat # 6 or #7 and get a game or two off a week
It’s as simple as that. Try to maximize his remaining productive value while you wait for his big fat contract to expire.
The window for winning a World Series may have waned.
I am just wondering if Bradley could play one and a half seasons
Or at least platoon with Hoffpauir then freeing the Cubs to deal Lee——idea is wonder if the Angels would part with Gary Matthews Jr in a salary swap….Jr is still a good CF’er, moves Fukudome to RF and if Bradley could play 1B it would improve the Cubs OF defense and possibly put four regular lefties in the lineup.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
VEP
Thanks for the great post. You really looked at both sides beforing making a conclusion. I look forward to more posts from you, since they are always great to read.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Great post
Lee said during ST this year that last year he got “pull-happy” and was making adjustments this year to avoid that. Obviously, his high DP rate dropped this year, but I wonder if his adjustment now has sapped a bit of pop in his stroke. I wonder if he needs to go to a lighter bat?
Every game I saw in ST, Lee was strictly an oposite field hitter. During batting practice you could tell he was working on pulling, driving the ball to left field, which he did very, very well. Once the game pitches are delivered, you can see he isn’t quick enough through the hitting zone and takes a lot of crushable pitches. I have a feeling that he’s a bit gun shy and tends to protect more and hit to RF instead of trying to pull and GIDP.
This is my perception, I am not a batting coach, nor do I play one on TV lol I also think that the wrist injury has a major part of his ability to pull the ball, even today. I remember a statistician (not from BCB) a couple of years ago mention that the magic number for baseball hitters is 32 or 33 years of age, when the offensive numbers start to fall. That’s probably the age when injuries, age, reaction time, etc., all start making noticeable impact on a baseball player.
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
Thanks a lot, vivaelpujols...
I read this post this morning before heading over for the game, and because of the hit charts and your damning analysis, I decided I’d be better off staying on Sheffield for Hoffpauir after Dome, instead of heading back to Waveland for Lee. Bad decision…
Sure enough, Lee blasts a long ball, all the way out to Waveland today. Not sure what the Southwest How Far Did It Fly tape measure said, but it landed on the street, and took a big bounce into the Budweiser house yard. Meanwhile, I’m standing over on Sheffield, muttering to myself…
Curse you and your statistics!!!! ;-)
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
415 feet, according to SW.
It had to be at least 450 in real life.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Lee hit that one with his eyes closed.........
similar to Hoff’s nice catch
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
o.0
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on May 2, 2009 8:25 PM CDT up reply actions
You point of view and stats appear........
to support mutleyi.
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
Well, the Cardinals fan is providing the best analysis.
And has the team with the best record. What is the world coming to?!! Agh!
Seriously though, thanks. I’m just a mini-sabermagician; I’m working on my PhD and my minor area of focus is statistical analysis in the social sciences, namely education, so I’m still working my way through regression, factor analysis, and multivariate, but I do appreciate posts like these that I bookmark as “cornerstone” pieces in how statistical analysis in the field of baseball should be done.
Question, VEP, where have you learned all your analysis skills? Graduate program? Part-time job? Hobby? If you have any recommendations for a guy that underestands the basics of statistics and baseball information (and likes applying what I learn in my social science statistical classes to baseball), I’m all ears. Thanks!
Dan
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
I just read a lot of stuff
Their is plenty of info out their that you can learn a lot from. I would suggest visiting blogs like Beyond the Boxscore, FanGraphs, Inside the Book, and The Hardball Times.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 3, 2009 12:38 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1 I'm drunk.
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
Very well done.
I’ve been playing catch-up on posts here on BCB, and so I just left a fairly lengthy reply to Mutleyil’s FanPost elsewhere on the site. I appreciated his post, but I think there are more useful tools available to analyze Lee’s trends than the stats that he noted. And those are exactly what you’ve included here. This is a great example of a better, more statistically significant way to analyze a player. So kudos and thanks! :)
To reiterate a point that DGU already made: I question how useful 2005 is in analyzing Lee’s performance trajectory (as opposed to outlier data). And as I gather you agree, without knowing the extent to which injuries are the determining (or contributing) factor in any fall-off of the various statistical measures, we can’t really know if Lee is capable of reaching the production level that we might hope. I think you make a plausible case, but I hope that you’re wrong.
So…long story short is that I guess it was a waste of time for me to write my other post. But I very much enjoyed your post here. :)
Btw, UZR is not adjusted based on position right? It’s simply based against the “average defensive player” irrespective of position? It doesn’t really matter too much since we aren’t making a cross-positional comparison, but I would be curious to see his comparison against other first basemen…
I'm pretty sure that the definition of UZR is runs saved above an average player at his position,
but I could be wrong.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
correct
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
About 2005
I concluded that his 06 and 07 seasons were basically the same, except with less power, probably due to injury or the fact that he was lucky in 05. The “decline” really started last year in my mind, and this year has done nothing to assuage that notion.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
Interesting point here
“The ‘decline’ really started last year in my mind.” That was part of my point in my original post, at least when you put ‘decline’ in quotation marks – because how can you tell whether he’s in a serious decline until you have seen what happens the following year. Certainly the start to this year was scary for Cub fans worried about decline. But what if Lee’s 2008 #s were just brought down by temporary injuries?
That’s what so frustrating as fans watching when you’re dealing first with a player like Lee who won’t talk about his injuries and second with a club like the Cubs who don’t want opposing managers to know the full story of their players current inabilities.
Derrek Lee is good.
The problem is that we really don't have a year zero.
06 was too small of a sample size, and 05 was an aberration. If you call 07 year zero, than his 08 just looks like random variation or it was being affected by injury. However, if you look at 06 or 05 as the start, than it definitely appears that he has declined. His HR/FB has gotten worse each year, and so has his O-Swing%. It really is a matter of preference as to where you start, and depending on that, a solid argument could be made either way.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 4, 2009 12:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Don't most players decline after 30? If you look at A-Rams HR numbers, he peaked in '06. I don't
think there is really a question of whether his numbers are declining. Numbers don’t get better with age like wine. Barry Bonds used steroids to keep his numbers up. The real question is how you deal with the declining production. Moving him down in the order is probaly warranted, but outright panic is not. What is happening to him is a normal part of baseball life. Any team has to make adjustments to deal with a players declining production brought on by age. It’s not like this doesn’t happen to every player.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on May 4, 2009 8:15 AM CDT up reply actions
The Cubs are lucky in that case.
They already have a guy on the roster who is capable of giving Lee more time off, and who they don’t really have to worry about grooming for bigger things.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
by D98 on May 4, 2009 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions
that's some irony right there
after all the back and forth about him, Micah Hoffpauir may just be exactly what the Cubs need in 2010 and 2011.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on May 4, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Well, through 2010 anyway.
Things change in 2011, with Lee’s contract off the books. I assume that Hendry already has a shortlist of potential acquisitions to take over the position. At which point Hoff goes back to being Daryle Ward 2.0.
Lilly’s also off the books at that point, although I don’t know that the Cubs are going to find a comparable starting pitcher for less money in free agency.
In 2012, Fukudome’s deal is off the books. So is Bradley’s. So is Aramis’ deal, assuming that he doesn’t opt-out again after 2010 and force another contract. Regardless, that’s a big to-do list, and a big opportunity to re-make the roster with a ton of cash available.
Dempster’s deal runs through the 2011 season with a (almost certain to be exercised) player option for 2012. Z’s runs through 2012 with a player option for 2013.
Soriano, of course, is ours through 2014. After which point Hendry or his successor can sink all that cash into Jay Bruce or Justin Upton or someone.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
I won't be surprised if Aramis Ramirez is our next 1B.
Derrek Lee is good.
by DGU on May 4, 2009 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Definitely possible...
Assuming that Vitters progresses over the next two years, he may be ready to step in at 3B in 2011. If not, maybe 2012. Of course, Ramirez moving to 1B may depend upon how his contract negotiations go after 2010, when he may opt out again.
I'd like to see that.
Presuming Ramirez can continue to hit the way he has, 1B in 2011 would probably keep him healthy longer, and prolong his career in general.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
And Ramirez is pretty good with the glove...
it’s the throws that give him problems. 1B would seem to be a natural transition.
We know why Lee's HR/FB rate went down in 2007
He was still coming back from the wrist injury. He only hiy 6 HRs in the first half, but hit 16 in the second half.
I’m not saying you should use this as any standard analysis procedure, but Lee’s career path post-2005 would look very differently if you coupled 2006 and the first half of 2007, then took the second half of 2007 and the first half of 2008. Anyway, that’s more of an aside than any respectable point. All it would suggest is, again, how nonsensical it is to say that Lee has been moving in a straight line over the past three years.
And while Lee’s HR/FB rate was done in 2007, because of his Brian Giles like first half, his ISO was not. It was like Lee knew his power was down then, and compensated for what kind of hitter he could be, which was still very productive, if not a HR hitter.
For me, the question is all bound up in what 2008 was – did we see a Lee for whom the wear and tear of baseball had finally caught up with in a way that would mark the rest of his career, or did we see a Lee who played through an injury that he might eventually overcome?
Derrek Lee is good.
by DGU on May 4, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions
I would still call 2007 a down year.
Although his ISO was higher, that was only because he hit for a very high percentage of flyballs. When you look at his previous and succeeding seasons, that looks like a fluke, and not something that we should expect to continue. In 07, his HR/FB (which is probably the best statisitcal measure of power) continued to drop, and so did his O-Swing and BB rate. Those two things, the drop in power and plate discipline, continued to drop in 08, and have dropped even further so far this year. That certainly seems like a decline to me.
Do you have evidence that he was still dealing with his wrist injury in the first half of 07? If not, than it is likely that his first half power outage in 07 was just coincidental. If you do, than that might explain his drop in numbers in 07, and last year and the start of this year might just be injury related, or just a down period.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
No evidence, of course
although it would be surprising if he didn’t have a power drop after the wrist injury he endured.
Derrek Lee is good.
by DGU on May 4, 2009 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes
but if I’m not mistaken, he came back at the end of 2006 also. His ISO in September/October was nearly .200. He also then had an entire offseason to recover from the injury. It seems pretty revisionist to say that Lee’s power outage in the first have in 07 was due to injury.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
I was under the impression
that wrist injuries took a long while, even after the batter came back. The sample size in 2006 is a bit small, too, don’t you think? I see your point, though.
Derrek Lee is good.
by DGU on May 4, 2009 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions
It's definitely too small
but so is the sample size in the first half of 07. I don’t know if wrist injuries take a while to heal, but either way something is messing with his power, and it doesn’t look to be getting better any time soon.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
great post vep
thanks on the read. good stuff. the decrease in BB is troubling… he is pressing and by so doing, getting worse.
I'll add my thanks to the list as well.
And, like DGU’s post, this one will be printed out and consumed by yours truly on the train tonight. Just too much data to look at on a monitor right now.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Analysis ignores 2 key facts
1) Who is hitting around him is an important point. With Ramirez hitting exceptionally well behind him, Lee will not get walked. Ergo, his walk % will go down. When Lee was the only truly scary hitter, he got pitched around
2) Teams still pitch around him. They don’t give him fly ball pitches as often. Even now, with him being in a slump and missing mistakes, teams aren’t giving him anything to elevate.
Still, it was an interesting read and I do think that Lee’s bat is slowing a bit. I think it’s not as serious as all the ledge jumpers would tell us. When he starts smoking the ball again, we can all relax.
Those two points contradict eachother
If Lee is getting pitched to more because of Ramirez, than he can’t be getting pitched around as well. Also, you’re wrong about the first one; Lee’s Zone% (which measures how many pitches he sees in the strike zone) has gone down in each of the past 4 years (with the exception of 06-07, when it stayed constant).
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
Point taken on lack of clarity
I don’t mean them to contradict. What I meant is they were pitching him lower. After 2005, according to Pitch Type, he sees a lot more “junk” (Sliders and curves) and fewer fastballs. This year his fastball percentage is up, but not enormously out of range on this sample size.
I will concede that if he was right, all that junk should lead to more walks and not fewer. This is a clear point for age/reaction time.
I’m not sure that I take zone % difference in his case as a significant change. Theriot got 53% strikes last year and Lee’s numbers are nearly all within 1% of 50%. That’s not a big difference. In 600 AB’s that would be about 60 strikes difference between Theriot and Lee.
So, I see him getting more strikes because of Ramirez, but they’re not fastballs/changeups. But, they may not be fastballs because he will chase a bad pitch or because (this year) he’s been behind in the count quite a bit. I guess I should start watching his pitch sequence and what he’s swinging at. I see him late and below a lot of first pitch fastballs this year during his slump.
Give me some proof
That Lee has been seeing more strikes, yet less hittable strikes each year for the past 4 years. If not, then your speculation as to a non-skill related reason to his decline in plate discipline in power, is, and don’t take this the wrong way, worthless.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 5, 2009 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Converted
While looking for the pitch location information, I really looked at his O-Contact and his O-swing numbers. The last few years he’s been chasing bad balls. The interesting thing is that he’s making more and more contact with them. I wonder if he needs to make some adjustments and be more selective, or if it’s “pressing” or something else. These stats aren’t telling that tale. Either way, I think we’re seeing a decline in hitting skills.
That said, I’d still take that triple slash for him the rest of the way this year. Next year is another matter. Just wait til next year.
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