I want to say this nicely...

by fischisgod on May 23, 2009 12:18 AM CDT Comment 62 comments

But there comes a point in time where you cant ignore the obvious. We have someone that is hitting better than Wieters in AAA.... Eventually we have to say enough is enough and promote Fox.. His defense might not be the greatest but at the same time his bat might outweigh Lees "defense". Derek has been declining in all phases of his game. This will be a not poplar opinion because the powers at be say that Lee is better than Hoffpaur or Fox.. Maybe But i know a sunken cost when i see it... Derek Lee is a sunken cost.

Our new lineup needs to be

Soriano LF (our player that carries us our "CEO hates"

Dome CF

Fox 1B

Bradley RF

Soto C

Fontenot 2B

Theriot SS

Scales 3B

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Fox

I think Fox should be looked at soon but I’m not penciling him in as a savoir or hitting him 3rd. Give him a few starts somewhere and see if he can replicate what he’s doing in AAA. Chances are he can’t come close but its time to find out.

by jeff_pico on May 23, 2009 12:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Theres no nicewayss.....

u cant f’en win when u cant score…..PERIOD

The best defense is a good offense.....Lou Pinella...still hasn't managed the Cubs to a post season win. D. Lee still doesn't have a post seasson RBI for Cubs...ditto for Soriano

by kcjones on May 23, 2009 12:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

agreed

When the bulls signed gordon we wer playing 4 on 5… We are at the point where Fox needs to come up. He has the triple crown in AAA and hes only 26…. Foret the BS he isnt worse with the glove than Derek is with the bat… We eed offense.

I am glad that Al finally got worried and told us as a group that we WERE alowed to get worried two days ago..Because god forbid we say something along the lines of our offense is terrible.. Becuase if we did we wer e ledge jumpers… I apologize for beng critical of the “editor in chief”. But I hate being told thatHoff pauir sucks that Fox’s stats mean nohing all the while he is backing up Derek. Is this the Tribunes mouthpiece or is this a “cubs fan community”

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

by fischisgod on May 23, 2009 1:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Friends, Romans, Cubfans lend me your ear

I come to bury DLee, not to praise him;
The evil that men do lives after them,
The good is oft interred with their bones,
So let it be with DLee … The noble fischisgod
Hath told you DLee was ambitious:
If it were so, it was a grievous fault,
And grievously hath DLee answered it …
Here, under leave of fischisgod and the rest,
(For fischisgod is an honourable man;
So are they all; all honourable men)
Come I to speak in DLee’s funeral …
He was my friend, faithful and just to me:
But fischisgod says he was ambitious;
And fischisgod is an honourable man….
He hath brought many captives home to Wrigleyville,
Whose ransoms did the general coffers fill:
Did this in DLee seem ambitious?
When that the poor have cried, DLee hath wept:
Ambition should be made of sterner stuff:
Yet fischisgod says he was ambitious;
And fischisgod is an honourable man.
You all did see that on the Lupercal
I thrice presented him a kingly crown,
Which he did thrice refuse: was this ambition?
Yet fischidgod says he was ambitious;
And, sure, he is an honourable man.
I speak not to disprove what fischisdog spoke,
But here I am to speak what I do know.
You all did love him once, not without cause:
What cause withholds you then to mourn for him?
O judgement! thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason…. Bear with me;
My heart is in the coffin there with DLee,
And I must pause till it come back to me.

WOXY.com - The Future of Rock and Roll

by Gibbon Jockey on May 23, 2009 1:03 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs

I give you points for Shakespeare...

(I’m suprised no one else commented on this yet).

I may disagree about DLee, but a good Julius Caeser reference deserves an acknowledgement…

+1 for culture.

by CubsWin!Oregon on May 23, 2009 1:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Say what will you about Fox

Jake Fox is not the savior of the team.

It’s all 8 starters doing their job.

That’s how we won in 2007 and 2008.

And DLee has raised his .BA by close to 50 points in the last 10 days. The DLee thing has to be dropped for a few days.

by ak123 on May 23, 2009 1:07 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

0 points to .250 maybe?

with a terrible slugging…

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

by fischisgod on May 23, 2009 1:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No actually

He had .192 and is at .240. Just saying….

by ak123 on May 23, 2009 1:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

our starting first baseman has an OP under .700

while we have someone with an OPS of 1.426 in AAA…. Cost benefit says lets go wth Fox.. And he can hit

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

by fischisgod on May 23, 2009 1:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes but he's one of 8 position players

We need everyone to hit. A solo HR from Fox wouldn’t do anything in helping us win the last 5 games.

by ak123 on May 23, 2009 1:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

if you are that silly to think that one person doesnt have an effect on a lineup

then u obviously beleve ryan freel is as important as aramis

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

by fischisgod on May 23, 2009 1:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

Aramis can hit 50HR’s this year if healthy and if no one is on base it’s only 50RBI’s. He had so many RBI’s because people got on base. He got tons of doubles but if people after him can’t get hits to score him at home then it doesn’t make a difference.

This is why it’s a team effort. Ryan Freel is no Aramis and shouldn’t be expected to perform as well as him. That being said, he needs to do his job and get on base for someone else to get him home. The problem is nobody is able to do that in the last 5 games.

by ak123 on May 23, 2009 1:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i understand you have been brainwashed

Hoffpauir and Fox cant play…

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

by fischisgod on May 23, 2009 1:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not one of those people

I dont have the same mentality as 90% of the people on here and I don’t argue and get nasty when people disagree. So let me have my opinion and you can have yours. Thanks.

by ak123 on May 23, 2009 1:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i just want a rationale for why fox is wors than d lee

taking into consderation a .700 OPS difference….

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

by fischisgod on May 23, 2009 1:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I never said Fox was worse than DLee

I don’t know where that came from. I was just saying that of everyone on the team right now, DLee is actually getting some hits and can contribute if he can keep it up.

Fox can help the team as well, maybe more than DLee but my point is, you need men on base to get RBI’s and you need men to help him score runs and that isn’t working right now. Therefore I don’t know what Fox can do. If the Cubs are getting on base more than I agree with your point. Right now they need to work on fundamentals or something to score some runs.

by ak123 on May 23, 2009 1:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

goo analysis

p;ease see my post drectly under

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

by fischisgod on May 23, 2009 1:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i apologize by the way..

everyone is entitled to their opinion.. From one cubs fan to another i apologize. We bth love the Cubs i am legitmately sorry. :(

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

by fischisgod on May 23, 2009 1:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No problem

I just don’t like people attacking my opinions. I take the time to read yours and respectfully respond and I expect the same from everyone else. Unfortunately on here that doesn’t always happen (especially when we have losing streaks).

by ak123 on May 23, 2009 1:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you are 100%

correct.. This losing streak has brought out a lot of bad emotions… it really has i am just sick of hearing hoffpauir and fox are so bad that they shouldnt play… i really do espect your opinions. sorry for getting testy… (i bow and say sorry)

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

by fischisgod on May 23, 2009 1:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kudos for resolving your differences in a civil way, guys

Something we don’t see nearly enough of lately… (and yes I’m aware that every other fan site is apparently much worse…)

However, I do feel compelled to point out, just for the record, that NOBODY on this site has “the same mentality as 90% of the people on here”…. on almost any issue, you will in fact find a wide array of opinions.

I’ve been increasingly frustrated by the tendency of many individuals here to see everything in black-and-white… to categorize others as either ledge-jumpers or koolaid-drinkers – a mindless worshiper or raving hater or whatever player is being discussed.

I’m not trying to single you out as someone that does that — you seem pretty reasonable. I suspect anyway that you don’t really mean exactly what you posted (or at least not the way I’ve interpreted it). But you did provide a nice opening for me to get this off my chest.

…and I will grant you there’s the whole mambochicken/hive-mind/whatever thing, but that’s only a small fraction of BCBers that have a single opinion on everything… :)

by CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) on May 23, 2009 7:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

I just feel like on here it is very “black and white”. People either see something one way or the other and there’s no wiggle room for you to see both sides. Usually people who have one opinion will oppose the other in a very nasty manner. I’m just happy that I was able to prove that not every debate has to end in that manner.

by ak123 on May 23, 2009 9:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

so we should praise a 240 BA from him?

the love for DLee is just as goofy

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 23, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's not what I said

He raised his batting average in the last 10 days by 50 points. He’s obviously hitting right now.

Nobody said we should praise a .240 BA but please continue being one of the of PO’d Cubs fans who attacks statements instead of really seeing what we write and make that assumption.

Then again, most everybody on here has expressed in the last week they are the smartest Cubs fans on the face of this universe so I should just stop typing and start observing what everyone else says.

by ak123 on May 23, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

WOW

you are Mr Snarky today……

I agree Fox is not the savior, and I honestly do not want someone who is said to have defensive skills “just above horrible” in the line up. I was saying over all about the love for Lee. Seems people are too often looking for an excuse to praise him this season, and looking for an excuse to shoot down Hoff, even if Hoff has out performed Lee this season.

And I was jsut saying a 240 BA is not a reason to get excited about him

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 23, 2009 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Run production

As long as he’s hitting in the 3-hole he has to produce runs. How do you do that? By hitting more extra base hits. Batting average is the most overrated hitting stat out there.

"I'm not so mean. I wouldn't ever go out to hurt anybody deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something." - Dick Butkus

"Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack." - Sun Tzu

by propheteer on May 23, 2009 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Problem is that Lee isn't producing;

slap hits with the bases empty are completely meaningless. When he had a chance to produce in the ninth yesterday, the real Derrek Lee showed up.

I like Lee as much as anybody but I can’t ignore the evidence of my own eyes. D Lee as a singles hitter doesn’t do us any good and, unfortunately, that’s pretty much all he is these days.

by bluekoolaide on May 23, 2009 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and Lee has not been doing that as well

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 23, 2009 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tim, you're better than this.

Derrek Lee has a .553 SLG in 53 May PAs with 5 XBH.
The All-Glorious, All-Pauirfuil Micah has a .512 SLG in 46 May PAs with 5 XBH.

Derrek Lee has faced all the tough pitchers the Cubs have run up against.
Hoffpauir has been used selectively and only against the RHP he hits better against.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 23, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I want Hoff in lineup

I just think him playing 1st base isn’t the solution for that. Bradley is not hitting. Plain and simple. I actually think he’s still hurt because a few nights ago he wasn’t hustling at all on the bases.

Move Hoff to RF and have him hit 3rd in the lineup.

If I were armchair manager for a second I’d do a lineup like this:

1) Soriano
2) Fukudome
3) Hoff
4) Lee
5) Soto
6) Theriot
7 + 8) Miles/Fontenot/Freel/Scales – whichever combo you make.

I’d even consider swapping Soto and Theriot if Theriot is able to drive the ball some more.

by ak123 on May 23, 2009 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fox up, Patton down

Why are we carrying David Patton on the roster? He hasn’t pitched since May 9. Lou needs to bring some of the minor leaguers up to hit the ball for us. This “stand by and wait” feels like Dusty Baker all over again. Bring back Corey Patterson to bat cleanup.

by dagwood on May 23, 2009 1:10 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Patton is a Rule 5 draft pick. He has to stay on the 25-man.

There have been a few articles/Fanposts/Fanshots/threads/Post-It notes/coloring books about this.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on May 23, 2009 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You stay away from my coloring book.

I bought that with MY BCB points, mister.

Judd Sirott is responsible for EVERYONE'S injury. And all the current slumps.
Bradley watch -- out 10 games of 39

by znohitter on May 23, 2009 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, good, another "Our lineup should be this" post.

Haven’t had one of these in ~~weeks~~ days.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money."

--Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on May 23, 2009 1:49 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Unfortunately

D Lee is this decade’s Dale Murphy.

Overnight, his talents have vanished, as Murphy’s did with Atlanta in the late 1980’s. Sitting as close as I did Friday night, in Field Boxes 16 rows up from HP — Lee’s bat speed is so bad (but you could argue it was Peavy’s fault) he’s only going to drive big, fat juicy mistake pitches.

He’s an easy out. The league should now know that pitchers don’t have to get him out — in his frustration, Lee will easily retire himself. Only mistakes will cost pitchers who don’t adhere to this scouting report. It’s probably eating him up, but he’s not the type to show any emotion, so to us — it probably seems like he doesn’t care. I I was in his shoes, I think I’d be pretty distraught if my skills…..vanished.

It’s too bad. Lee’s best beat the Cubs in 2003. What we got was his downside — probably worsened by his wrist injury, and personal problems.

by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on May 23, 2009 1:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Lee actually had one of the five hits last night.

He’s hitting well in May — just with no power. Maybe that will come back. In any case, Fox isn’t the answer.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on May 23, 2009 5:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess we don't define power by SLG percentage any more.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 23, 2009 6:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dont understand why you hate him

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

by fischisgod on May 23, 2009 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No one hates Jake Fox.

There’s simply a greater likelihood that he’s going to hurt the Cubs more defensively than he’s going to help them offensively. Did you see Micah Hoffpauir get owned by Jake Peavy last night? That’s the challenge Triple-A All Stars face when they try to make it in the Bigs.

Now, I don’t want to take anything away from Micah – he’s played relatively well so far this season. But the pitching is so much better – and the pressure is so much greater – at the major league level. To look at Jake Fox as some sort of panacea is, well, it’s sad. It’s sad that we, as Cubs fans, have been forced to endure the last four games. And it’s sad that we’ve been driven to this point of desperation. (And now the Sori-to-Second thing really seems to be gaining traction, too. Horrifying.)

Oh, and the phrase you’re looking for is “sunk cost,” not “sunken cost.” The Titanic was a sunken cost to the person or persons who owned it. Derrek Lee is a major league baseball player who is still hitting pretty well in the month of May.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on May 23, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was going to let this go but i cant.....

Derek Lee is a sunken cosy. We will never get the level of return that a 13 million dollar player should return. Baseball players are commodities. They are exactly like a stock which is why you can trade release and buy them. That being said Derek Lee is essentialy like a share of AIG. You can either keep holding onto it and hoping that it might come out of the crapper or you can just cut your losses and go a different route.

This team has really put me in a bad mood in an otherwise great part of my life. We are wastng solid pitching every night. I have no idea what to do but we are getting to the point that Lou needs to do what he did in 2007 when Rich Hill was clowning around on the mound. He needs to throw a temper tantrum tomorrow.

Things could be worse i feel like in 07 we had a similar record but a month later. The bats HAVE to come around….

Some suggestions:
Cleveland wants pitching for Derosa? Send them back Stevens and Ascanio. Then Mark an come play third.

Maybe give Marquez Smith a call. He is playing well at AA and is 24. He is hitting pretty solidly. He might even actually be able to play 3B…

Do something with Patton other than have him sit on his behind all day. We need Fox up here for nothing else to pinch hit.

Fox will be fine. He isnt that old.

Another name to look into becuase we cant hit is Tony Thomas. Destroying the ball at AA..

Just some thoughts

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

by fischisgod on May 24, 2009 1:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you should give up your rants about DLee. It's obvious that he is out

of his slump now and your continuous rants are really making no sense. There are plenty of players who are making the kind of money Lee makes and are contributing even less to their teams. At least DLee is hitting. It’s plain to see that he is not the reason they are not scoring runs now. You really need to move on to something else.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on May 24, 2009 1:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Amen

After tonight’s (Saturday’s) game Lee’s OPS for May is over 1.000…

He’s the only one who seems to breaking out of the team-wide slump at the moment.. others show occasional flashes but so far keep sinking back into the morass of suckitude..

by CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) on May 24, 2009 1:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, I can't get past "sunken cosy."

Seriously, your heart’s in the right place. And I understand your frustration. But the solution to this God-awful offense does not lie in the minor leagues. (And, again, please look at Derrek Lee’s May gamelogs.)

In short, there is no cavalry. There will be no rescue mission. This team will either have to stand and fight on its own merit or suffer yet another season of abject humiliation at the hands of the Cardinals.

I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.

by dat cubfan daver on May 24, 2009 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It must be the name "Jake".

We now have almost as many Jake Fox posts as Jake Peavy posts.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on May 23, 2009 5:43 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm waiting for a Jake Ryan post...

Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team

by carmen_fanzone on May 23, 2009 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see why

Fox is jumping Hoff?

"Do you want a bunch of duds walking around with their shoulders slumped and having no emotions, no feelings?" Bradley said. "I don’t think the fans want that. I think they want a guy who’s going to get into the game and feel a little bit. I’ve always said, ‘I don’t really play baseball, I feel it.’ "

by Villeslgr on May 23, 2009 11:04 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

fox

some guys can mash aaa pitching and then not hit in the big leagues. hoffpauir looks like he can hit mlb pitching.with fox we wont know unless he gets a chance. pie was a huge bust. but where can you play these guys??

by NOMAR on May 23, 2009 11:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

so we are going to dump

Lee who is not who he once was, and skipping over Hoff who has done a better than average job all around, to insert Fox who has no proof of being able to produce at MLB and cannot field as well as Helen Keller according to all reports. Not sure I agree.

Fox should be called up and given some PH ABs and lets see what happens.

You have a good idea of shaking things up, but did you look at the scouting report on Fox by chance?

http://www.hot-prospects.net/tag/jake-fox-scouting-report

The former Michigan Wolverine had his best season as a pro last year between AA Tennessee and AAA Iowa, batting .287 with 31 HR 105 RBI 39 doubles and 93 runs scored. Determined to earn a ticket back to Wrigley longer than his 14 AB stint in 2007, Fox worked hard in the off season and put together an impressive spring in which he hit .350 with 4 HR and 16 RBI. Former teammate Micah Hoffpauir won a final roster spot, however, and Fox was sent back to Iowa. Since that time, he has hit .432 with 11 HR 29 RBI and 21 runs scored in his first 18 games, pushing the envelope for another call up. Though he has the power to hit 25-30 HR at the major league level, Fox still struggles from time to time with his plate disicpline. He crushes fastballs, but often has a difficult time grinding out AB’s once he himself into breaking ball counts. Defensively, Fox was a subpar catcher which prompted his move to a corner OF spot where he is…subpar. He is an adaquate first baseman, however, and would be an excellent candidate to DH for an American League club in the future.

2009 Projection: His hot start pretty much guarantees that he will get a call up at some point this spring or early summer. Cubbies free agent aquisition Milton Bradley is off to a miserable start and his checkered health history makes him a prime candidate for a DL stint at some point this season. Enter Jake Fox. Fox has the power capability to put up numbers in bunches but his below average plate discipline and defensive culpabilities will likely have detrimental effects on his ability to sustain big numbers throughout an entire major league season. At 26, his career path is somewhat similar to Oakland A’s slugger Jack Cust who spent several seasons as a minor league slugger before breaking out with in the Bay area as a one dimensional HR magnet.

Another poster had a quote about his defensive abilities being just a tad above horrible

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 23, 2009 12:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

1basemen

That’s all the Cubs can manufacture in their farm system. It gets even better because most of them can’t play a lick of defense. How about trying to trade these useless players to the AL?

"I'm not so mean. I wouldn't ever go out to hurt anybody deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something." - Dick Butkus

"Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack." - Sun Tzu

by propheteer on May 23, 2009 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

HOff is not bad at 1b

Fox is another story

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 23, 2009 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bring 'em up

Crap! Bring the guy up and give him a chance. We can’t be doing any worse than what we have been doing. Thankfully, we can’t go into the negatives…

Cubs -5; Cards 4

We’ve stunk. It won’t hurt to give the kid a try.

by TheHawkRules on May 23, 2009 12:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

That "sunk cost" in Lee...

has the following stat line in May: .333/.404/.608 (1.012 OPS). That’s a fantastic month for anyone not named Pujols.

Lee has raised his average and OBP by 60 points this month, raised his SLG by 130 points. So while his season number still look REALLY pedestrian, he appears to be headed in the right direction. I doubt Fox would have put up a 1.000 OPS in the month of May had he been in the big leagues, and Lee provides better defense.

That said, I do agree that Fox should be called up. He should replace David Patton, who hasn’t pitched in two weeks and clearly isn’t ready for the MLB. Since we’re only using an 11-man staff anyway, we might as well have the benefit of Fox as a PH.

by SouthernCub on May 24, 2009 8:25 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on May 24, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

just curious

a good month for Hoff was a small sample according to some, so is this a smal sample for Lee? Just saying we should stay consistant around here with what is and what is not a small sample.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 24, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Derrek Lee has 6385 career plate appearances.

That is not a small sample size. His career numbers and career trends give us a solid projection for what we might likely expect from him.

Micah Hoffpauir has 166 career plate appearances. That is still a small sample size.

At career plate appearance #189, Chris Shelton’s overall batting line was .314/.378/.521.

Huh. That’s almost exactly Micah’s career line right now.

Now, I’m not saying that Micah is the next Chris Shelton. I sure hope he’s not. I’m just saying he hasn’t proven much at the major league level. He’s proved that he deserves more chances. But then, at this point, relative to his career, Chris Shelton had proved that, too.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 24, 2009 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

but a smal sample

is why many are hanging on Lees jock about his last few weeks, right? How is saying a few weeks is a smal sample for one, and not for another?

we have seen that the projections for palyers this year are for shit, Font, Soto, Lee have all shown us that, so stop looking at the projections which have been incorrect before. Stop loking at “projections” when they are an educated guess, and reality IS NOT matching up with them.

So many here have said that April is a small sample, then quote numbers from May about Lee, and argue that they aer different, when in reality they are a small sample as well.

his prior years of experience mean nothing to what he can or cannot do this season. His gold gloves do not mean he is the same player in 2009 as he was before.

Again I am not anti-Lee, I just want those who will sit here and praise Lee for three weeks of (finally) playing to admit that they are using the exact same “small sample” to priase him that they are willing to say makes Hoff’s numbers meaningless. You for one refuse to see that connection, and continue to pussyfoot around it, which I do find humorous.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 24, 2009 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How do I express this?

Because we’re seeing things very differently here.

How about taking a player that’s totally out of the Cub universe… Mark Teahen had a PECOTA projection pre-season of .264/.334/.412. In April, he hit .300/.391/.488. Maybe he was finally reaching his potential, right? Now in May, he’s hit .240/.296/.373. On the season, now, he’s hit .271/.347/.432. In April, PECOTA looked totally wrong. If you just took May, PECOTA looked totally wrong. But PECOTA doesn’t project one month’s performance. It projects a season performance. On the season so far, it looks to have Mark Teahen pegged.

Chris Iannetta, on the other hand, started the season cold. On April 27, he was hitting .143/.321/.310. He looked to be in a sophomore slump. PECOTA’s .285/.392/.499 projection looked absurd. Since then, Iannetta has hit .290/.371/.645 and PECOTA looks to have undersold the Rox catcher. On the season, however, he has a .350 OBP and a .510 SLG and PECOTA’s not that far off all told.

That’s why I have no intention of setting pre-season projections aside. They are a guide to help me see past short-term trends. They tell me to expect Mark Teahen to cool off and Chris Iannetta to heat up. Yes, several of the projections will be wrong come season’s end. PECOTA can’t foresee which players will have a bad year because they try and play through injuries or lose the will to put in the effort. PECOTA can’t foresee which players will have a dramatic improvement because they learned to run up mountains or a coach’s insight suddenly broke through to them.

Derrek Lee has been cold before and he will be cold again. If Micah Hoffpauir plays long enough, even he will have a cold streak. If you don’t believe that, we really don’t have any common ground here.

The difference between Lee’s three weeks and Hoffpauir’s is that Lee is playing to his career averages and Hoffpauir has no career to compare to. Hoffpauir’s #s aren’t meaningless – his AAA #s after all gave him a good PECOTA projection. But Hoff’s ML #s to date are not definitive.

As for me – the only case I have ever made against Hoff has had nothing to do with #s. I have said that his approach at the plate has left him wide open for scouting reports to say, “Never throw him a strike.” As Hoffpauir has adjusted that approach, I’ve praised him and said this was a good sign. But it’s not definitive. Soriano looked to have changed his approach, too, to start the season. Then Lou moved him from the lead-off spot and he went back to his career #s.

That’s what players tend to do.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 24, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

But am I right

to say that a three week period, no matter who it is, is a small sample? That was the running theme against players who seem to be in the BCB Doghouse (which seems to be easier to get in and harder to get out of than Lou’s)?

That is what you and others who are jumping for joy about Lee right now seem to be doing. You are dismissing where it was stated that Arpil was too small a sample, then getting excited using May to defend Lee.

Throw all the damn projections out, throw all the previous seasons out, and look at what wins you games, THE REALITY OF NOW. I understand what PECOTA is, but you cannot use that as your lone guideline to reality. Remember it picked Rich Hill to have a hell of a season in 2008. It is an estimated guess, not a guarantee. You want to use it to get a basis sure, but you have to stop living and dying by it. If it was a guarantee, then there would be no need to play the games.

BCB seems to get to caught up in stats sometimes, where they forget to look at what is happening and only look at the stats given, such as PECOTA.

Now, back to the original reason you replied to me at all above, I am only asking you and others to be consistant. Which I have said time and time again. If you and others want to say that April was a smal sample, then how is part of May not a smal sample? Do nto give me “well in 2005……..”: but rather give me a honest opinion based on the actual question. I asked that before, and you continue to avoid answering, instead giving me a history lesson that is not an answer to the asked question. If I may ask, do you avoid that since you are guilty as one who has jumped from the April was too small a sample for Hoff but May is enough of a sample for Lee?

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 24, 2009 7:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A few things here

1) We’re talking past each other, I think, because we’re using the phrase “small sample” to refer to two different things. You’re referring to the three-four week period. I’m referring to any multi-week period in the context of career numbers. So, when Lee puts up #s that look like his career #s it’s a different thing than when Micah puts up #s that are half of his career #s. Does that make sense? Derrek Lee has proved that he can make adjustments. What was at question was his physical ability given age and injuries. So, when Derrek Lee hits like he has for three weeks, the physical ability is much less at issue. Hoffpauir has yet to prove that he can make adjustments at the ML level. But every month that goes by where he produces, it becomes less and less an issue.

2) Why is it a bad thing to be glad Lee is hitting well? It saddens me that a Cub fan would be upset with another Cub fan for being glad Lee has pulled out of a long period of decreased production.

3) Projections are obviously not my only guide. I went against the projections in my initial take on Hoffpauir based on the approach I was seeing in his ABs.

4) Stats are one way to describe what is happening; they are a way that is more comprehensive and trustworthy than the common fan’s perceptions, because we generally only see a handful of games, and often from inferior angles. Whenever I get my hands on a real live scouting report, I am very pleased to get that and put a lot of stock into it. I don’t put much stock into an anonymous blogger saying, “I don’t think Joe looked good tonight; maybe his bat speed is slow.” I tend to make cases on BCB based on stats because they are the most universal info we have to work with. That doesn’t mean I think it’s the be-all-end-all to baseball.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 24, 2009 8:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

not upset he is hitting

I want him and all Cubs to excel. It is that you and others use it against Hoff but for Lee. You are not consistant with it.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 24, 2009 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not using it against Hoff.

I suggested Hoff play LF and Sori play 2B.

Unless by “using it against Hoff” you’re suggesting that I’m “against Hoff” just by agreeing with the whole Cubs organization that Derrek Lee is our 1B.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 24, 2009 9:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great post

I think you’ve done a great job here of explaining your “philosophy” for applying statistics (in a fairly common sense way) to understanding what’s happening with a given baseball player or team and to a lesser extent projecting future performance.

I’m just curious – do you have any professional background in statistics? I do lots of statistical analysis as part of my job (but know next to nothing about sabermetrics and fancy baseball stats). You talk exactly like a Bayesian statistician. Bayesians are all about incorporating prior information into statistical analyses of new data — just like you describe.

yeah, I’m a nerd…

by CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) on May 26, 2009 5:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs