Thinking Positive - No reason the Cubs don't rebound.
by DisCUBbobulated on May 25, 2009 7:36 PM CDT
Email
PrintI don't feel any better about the losing streak than anyone else, but I'd like to ground the recent ledge-jumping party with some perspective on why things may not be as bad as they seem right now. This is my first BCB fanpost, which I figures gives me at least a couple free passes on snide comments (if not, what the hell, I can take it!)
Why the season may not be over:
- Very good starting Pitching/improving relief pitching. Looking back at the season, the Cubs have allowed four or fewer runs in 24 of their 42 games, going 14-10 in those games. Their starting rotation is very good, even with the Harden/Zambrano injuries, and as a staff they give up fewer hits than anyone in baseball. Their starters are still among the best in the league, and the bullpen is quietly getting much better (see above). Marmol, Guzman, Ascanio, and to some degree the others are reducing walks, and the bullpen has a 2.45 era over the last week.
- The hitting will not stay this bad, and doesn't need to be really good - This FanPost by burselius goes into very nice detail about us just being unlucky this year. The cubs are 21-3 when scoring at least 4 runs, thanks to the good pitching, but 0-18 when scoring less than 4 runs. Also, looking at the current slump and YTD averages, it would be nearly statistically impossible for it to continue. Here is a look at every Cubs non-rookie outside of Ramirez (who's hurt) and Dome (whos the only one hitting right now).
Player 2009 avg Career avg Worst yr avg*
Theriot .263 .287 .266
Soriano .257 .281 .268
Lee .248 .282 .270
Johnson .237 .283 . 236 (2nd is .270)
Fontenot .208 .273 .278
Miles .204 .285 .263
Soto .202 .277 .285
Bradley .188 .277 .221 (2008=.321)
Freel .100 .270 .245
This chart shows that all but 2 veteran cubs are batting 24-100+ points below the career average and at or below their lowest ever career average. To explain why it is foolish to suspect this to continue, imagine if it was the other way around, and I told you that Bradley, hitting .366 (the same points above his career average), would sustain it all year. You would say "no way.. he'll cool off". My point is.. no way this continues.. the Cubs will heat up, and I think a LOT. No way ALL of these players continue to have unpredendentedly bad years at the SAME TIME. *Worst year average is since 2000. - It's EARLY! and they're not in a hole - the cubs are .500 and only 4 1/2 games out of first. Considering how bad the bullpen has been and how historically awful the hitting has been, we are in unbelievable shape. Though it's hard to watch a team swoon, there is a silver lining here - this team is learning how to handle adversity in May and developing some character. WE WILL NEED THIS IN OCTOBER. Remember, it's not about winning in May - it's about winning in October.
Why the season could be over (but I'm not buying it right now).
- The cubs have given up - Though I didn't mind Bradley bitching about the umps and being frustrated in general, there was something in the article that bothered me - blame of others. People in the mental health profession will tell you this is an important sign that people have given up on their own ability to change things for the better. Also, I don't think MB says this stuff on his own - he just talks more than his teammates and says exactly what he's thinking, and perhaps he is the canary in the mine reflecting that a lot of Cubs players are losing hope for this year.
- Pitching in the NL central - It is spectacular. Top to bottom, there are rotations in this division who have been built to shut down the cubs lineup - as the team to beat, just a little tweaking can ensure that the aces match up against us every time we play in the central. As shown before, if the cubs can't win close low-scoring games, then 2009 will be very, very difficult.
- Poor Chemistry - This is actually the most likely culprit, considering all the new faces and the inexplicable lack of hitting and base stealing across the board - hopefully time will help. However, I think that fans that ALLOW themselves to be positive and generally think good thoughts about the players and the season can't really hurt, can it? (I mean, if you screw up at work, how would you like to be confronted by that? - these guys are people)
- We truly are cursed - We have the best starting pitching in the league, an elite closer (even if he's currently only pitching the 8th), and an unbelievably loaded roster full of offensive firepower - and it won't matter. We are, after all, the Cubs.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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You can hope your
way to a Pennant if you wish.
However, at the rate they are going and 15th out of 16th in hitting with RISP, they may be too far buried in the standings when A-Ram comes back for him to make any difference.
Couple that with the fact that Hendry’s hands are tied due to the ownership issue, meaning no new players other than trades.
The team is screwed for 2009, imo, unless they crank it up in a hurry.
I am trying to say that the cubs have more than hope..
They have very good starting pitching, a good closer, and hitting that will be much better than they’ve shown so far.
by DisCUBbobulated on May 26, 2009 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions
Stop with the curse
Please stop
by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on May 26, 2009 12:07 AM CDT reply actions
Curses and Releivers
For the record, I don’t believe in curses, but think that peoples (esp. players) belief in them can lead to self-fulfilling prophecies.
Regarding relief pitching, last night’s cast of characters was definitely not the “A” team. Makes me think Lou needs to take a back seat to coaching pitchers – e.g. looking at Cotts, Lou’s turned him into mush. First he says, “you have good stuff.. throw strikes” and then when Cotts stops walking people, he gets smacked around. Since walking 5 in his first 3 innings, Cotts has walked 4 in his next 8, only to watch his ERA go from 3.00 to nearly 7. Maybe Lou’s fear of walks is a little irrational.
by DisCUBbobulated on May 26, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Bill James ....
…. did an analysis way back in his “Baseball Abstract” days correlating the length of winning and losing streaks to odds of making the playoffs. (If anyone can find this online anywhere, please post a link. It is a great article with a lot of food for thought.) If I remember correctly, the tilting point was streaks of 5 games or greater. Things get really rosy or ugly beyond 5 games. Again, if I remember correctly, the odds of making the playoffs with a losing streak of 8 games or longer is in the very low double digits, something like 12-15%. Keep in mind this analysis was done in the pre-Wild Card era. FWIW, didn’t the Dodgers have an 8 losing streak last year before juicing up their lineup with ManRam?
Now I’m not prepared to throw in the towel on the 2009 Cubs. But realistically, very good teams, to say nothing of championship teams, historically have rarely had major extended losing streaks. We’re looking at a really steep climb, not impossible, but very difficult to overcome.
If It Takes Forever ....
While that is true...
… the 2006 Cardinals made the playoffs (and won the WS) after having TWO separate 8-game losing streaks and another of seven, the latter late in September.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
But
again that was in a very weak Central. Barring Catestrophic injuries to the Birds and the Crew, the Central is not going to be weak this year
"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb
by TheRiot Police on May 26, 2009 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions
You don't know that.
When the D’backs started 21-9 last year, would you have thought the division winner in the West would have only 84 wins?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
You are right...
I don’t know that but that is how I feel if those teams and to a lesser extent the Reds stay healthy and continue to play reasonably well.
Hopefully, you are right and I am wrong. Time will tell.
"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb
by TheRiot Police on May 26, 2009 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Well
A million other teams have had 8-game losing streaks and ended up ticking off the calendar until golf season. I understand the glass half full approach but nothing that has happened in the last ten days, and for the better part of this entire season, to make even the most optimistic of Cubs fans believe that somehow this is only a precursor to the ending the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals had.
Who needs a stinkin' tag line? What are they for anyway?
If this were August or September I might agree with you.
Tell that to last year’s Dodgers, who had an 8-game losing streak and were 5 games under .500… with 27 games left in the season.
What happened to them? I forget.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Yeah, I've thought about last year's Dodgers lately, too.
The Cubs will be “picking up” a certain player with the last name of “Ramirez” around midseason this year. I hope he has a similar effect.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Ledge jumpers
It’s cute and convenient to call those that feel this season is slipping / has slipped away as “ledge jumpers”. What similar buzzword do you want to use for those who feel the other way? Cliff hangers? Head barriers? Cave dwellers? Because after watching this horrendous stretch, those that have unending optimism may also have been residing on another island while all of this has been going on.
This just isn’t a very good baseball team and teams that aren’t very good don’t make the playoffs. It’s that simple.
Who needs a stinkin' tag line? What are they for anyway?
It's eerily reminiscent of 2005
That year, the Cubs were coming off 2 straight years of contention and winning records, and everyone expected another winning campaign – but then Nomar’s groin exploded and, since we had no legitimate backup for an oft-injured keystone player, Neifi Perez wound up playing in like 150 games – much as Aramis’s shoulder is going to result in Aaron Miles playing way more than he should.
Also, in 2005, we went out and signed a left-handed RF coming off a .280-37-110 season (in a bandbox of a home park), only to watch him limp along to a .258-24-87 season.
Also, in 2005, no one around here seemed to recognize that we weren’t playoff bound until like August, despite the fact that they were scoring and giving up runs at basically an even clip for the season.
And then the bottom dropped out.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
+1
I was talking to a friend about that, and we both kinda chuckled about the humor that season was. It was like watching a trainwreck, and this season seems too similar.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
As someone who will call out the ledge jumpers
At this point, it isn’t ledge jumping. Ledge jumping is calling for trades in April based on a week’s worth of stats or getting upset at losing a couple of games after winning 5 straight.
At this point in the season, the flaws are obvious and this losing streak is not to be taken lightly.
You're right about buzzwords..
I could have made my point without stirring the pot and referring to ledge jumping.
However, I am making a point, not from a cave, but from a set of stat lines, that this IS a very good baseball team. In addition, I actually hope that Lou doesn’t start trading out pieces and moving too many people in and out of Iowa in a moment of despair. An above commenter talked about how the 2006 Cardinals won the World Series despite two seperate 8 game losing streaks. I believe a lot of that WS season had to do with LaRussa continuing to play his hands because he knew the odds, and that eventually he would win. The historic statistics of most of the players on this team point to very good odds of an improved 2009 moving forward.
by DisCUBbobulated on May 26, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions
Understood
However, the only stat line that is at all relevant is 21-22. That to me points at far less than a good baseball team. In fact, it points to a bad baseball team.
Who needs a stinkin' tag line? What are they for anyway?
baseball is a funny sport...
who knows what the hell will happen this season. cubs can just as easily tear off a 10 game winning streak starting today and all this talk would go away.
"Without spikes, psychologically it plays havoc with the other team, when they realize I don't even wear a uniform--they don't know what to expect." Bill Murray
by billmurrayforowner on May 26, 2009 9:03 AM CDT reply actions
Will it?
With visions of the 2007 and 2008 offensive playoff meltdowns still fresh in the minds of Cubs fans and an easy reminder of what this offense is capable of during this losing streak, will all of this talk go away? Or it is simply that what we’re seeing from the Cubs right now is what we can expect to see the rest of the way? I’m not sure I’d bet the house on this nightmare being dead and buried anytime soon no matter what happens.
Who needs a stinkin' tag line? What are they for anyway?
I have no idea how things will go but Baseball is STREAKY
about a week and half a ago the Cubs were fine, the Yankees were in free fall and the Padres were DEAD. Things
can change fast but the Cubs clearly need some ass kicking change. I seriously believe they have the talent but a lot of baseball is emotional and they are the wrong end now. It won’t happen but my dream is for Lou to say he is exhausted and Ryno to come take his place. Since that won’t happen I will settle for dumping Cotts and bringing up Stevens.
"I daydream just like everybody else, I just do it with my body facing the field, so everybody thinks I'm paying attention."- Greg Maddux
by Doggie Stalker on May 26, 2009 10:18 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I like your move...
And the perspective. Not that Cotts is a bad pitcher (though for some this is now fact), but Lou and Cotts aren’t meshing, and it’s impacting the end product.
by DisCUBbobulated on May 26, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
And what qualifies Ryno
to be a MLB Manager for a team with playoff aspirations? Until he does a stint with the big club as a coach, Ryno as a manager for the Cubs just does not make much sense.
If Lou were to step down, it would be Trammell’s job. Don’t know whether he would make any difference or not, but it would probably be his job if he wanted it.
"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb
by TheRiot Police on May 26, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
I kinda agree
Trammell didnt exactly do wonders in his stint as a manager before. Ryno would not be a horrible idea, and maybe a complete shake up (Ryno) vs. someone from the same staff (Trammall) would be more benefitial. Either one could be right, and at the same time, neither could be the answer.
Regarding Streaks, look at the Blue Jays. They are also on a nasty fall right now, and went from first with a nice lead a week ago, to being out 1.5 in third place.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Kinda hard to judge Trammell on his Tiger record.
Many of his players should have been at AA and the team hadn’t gone on it’s spending spree yet. Many of those players developed into good pros after learning at the MLB level.
I’m not saying Trammell is as good as Lou or better than Leyland, but mediocre managers usually look pretty good with a talented, balanced, and healthy lineup.
If given control of a decent team, I’d expect Trammell would look pretty good.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
I agree Trammall was given a team to lose with
no doubt about it, and it would be interesting to see what Ryno or Trammall could do with this team. I like Lou, dont get me wrong, but he seems to have lost this team
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Because you REALLY need to shake things up if Lou goes
and that is not Trammell , though it would be an improvement.
"I daydream just like everybody else, I just do it with my body facing the field, so everybody thinks I'm paying attention."- Greg Maddux
by Doggie Stalker on May 26, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
I just don't agree...
Just like you don’t rush a player to the Major Leagues, I would hate to rush a manager who is probably not ready. He not only stunt his growth but you also potentially stunt the growth of the team.
I wanna believe that Ryno can do the job but he just does not have the experience to do the job. You would be hiring him mostly based on his playing days…is that a wise move with a veteran club who is configured to win now/next year.
"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb
by TheRiot Police on May 26, 2009 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions
I am not sentimental about his playing days
I am impressed with how he has managed in the minors with a nice mix of encouraging players AND having fire in the belly
thus my mythical combination of the best of Lou and Dusty. However Trammell would be an improvement to me anyway.
As you know I have not like Lou’s managing since early last year but now it just seems like he is worn out.
"I daydream just like everybody else, I just do it with my body facing the field, so everybody thinks I'm paying attention."- Greg Maddux
by Doggie Stalker on May 26, 2009 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions
4 things I'm clinging to right now
1. Good starting pitching (last night notwithstanding),
2. The faint hope that Guzman and Ascanio (and maybe Stevens, Wells or Marshall) can save the pen,
3. A colossal swing toward the positive in BAbip, and
4. The fact that it’s still May.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
4. The fact that it’s still May.
and the June Swoon is around the corner
SARCASM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
The question is...
…not if we’ll get better than what we’ve been doing. We have to get better than that. The question should be will be be good enough the rest of the way out to come back and win it.
I hope so… With what we got right now, if the team starts hitting, we should be good. But the Brewers are a pretty good team. Personally, I think we need to do some touch-ups. I’ve been cheering for DLee to get going, but I am seriously worried about his career… ARams bat is out for awhile… MB is a question mark… we have no idea how his season will unfold.
I wish we’d get some more pitching, and I hope… another good hitter. I don’t think those are impossible things to wish for. The team will do better than this. Fonzie can carry the team for short periods… etc… the season isn’t over, I just hope we don’t wait too late to do something.
Sigh...look at DLee's May gamelogs, please.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
speaking of Lee
how sick and what does he have? The Cubs cannot tell us due to HIPPA, so does this have us more or less concerned, especially if it is a virus he shared with Scales (so far)
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
According to Carrie Muskat...
…he’s got the flu. And I’m not particularly concerned, though I do feel bad for him. It’s doubtful he’ll return to tonight. The game may well be rained out anyway, so let’s hope he’s back in action tomorrow (or at least for the Dodgers series) to finish out his RESURGENT May in style.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
I do not trust that report
since she cannot legally disclose what he does or doesnt have due to HIPPA. I hope it is nothing more than a flu, and keep my fingers crossed for him.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Sigh...YOU look at DLee's May gamelogs, please.
by TheHawkRules on May 26, 2009 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions
I already have.
That’s why I’m not saying stuff like, " I’ve been cheering for DLee to get going, but I am seriously worried about his career."
Here, I’ll even give you the link.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Golly gee Daver,
Are you implying one player is having a better stretch than another?
Is a split of .342/.421/.553 actually better than .206/.310/.310 over the last 10 games played? But, but, but… both players had 9 k’s and one even GIDP twice (not DLee).
I like Hoffpauir and want him to succeed, but I am weary (obviously you too) of the bench DLee crap. He’s one of the few players producing in this godawful stretch and needed back in the lineup.
The spread isn’t quite as large for the whole month of May, but Lee outproduced Hoffpauir in May.
Thank you for calling people on this fallacy.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
I never said ANYTHING about BENCHING DLEE
DLEE is the best first basemen that we have. I like Hoff and I hope he succeeds. To the genius named daver… Lee isn’t lighting anything on fire in the month of may. What is that, 6 RBI’s? With a team that walks a lot? Even though they have been struggling, Lee’s performance is going down. That’s what I am saying. More is expected of him. Go ahead and look more into what I said, continue to abuse me you jerk… feel free… But your not right, like usual. Not by a long shot.
I’m worried about Lee because he isn’t the same DLee… he wasn’t last year, he isn’t this year. By same… I mean I don’t think he’s going to be able to hit .300/30/100….
Hey dat cubfan daver… did I say anything more than “i’m worried about Dlees career?” Why don’t you stop being a jerk to everybody.
Can you cut and paste for us
exactly where Daver “abused” you… I’m not seeing it..
what I’m seeing is you calling him names..
by CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) on May 26, 2009 10:54 PM CDT up reply actions
CFIC
I asked him about where I am attacking people according to him as well, and have yet to see one. I think with the loses, everyone is on wits end, and its easy for people to take things wrong.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Funny...
I was thinking the same about you…
I think with the loses, everyone is on wits end, and its easy for people to take things wrong.
by TheHawkRules on May 27, 2009 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions
First off...
I’m not going to waste my time going through our history and posting everything thing. No offense, but you wouldn’t either if the situation was reversed. If you are so interested in finding things out though, feel free to look at our history.
Yeah, and I will continue to call him names… because he is a pathetic weasel.
by TheHawkRules on May 27, 2009 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions
OK, the namecalling can stop right now.
Whether he did it or not, be the bigger man and YOU stop.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
If you want it to stop...
…change the way the boards are done so that people can’t continue to be jerks and get away with it. That’s lame… very lame…
If that won’t happen, which it won’t, then throw me off the site. I’ve asked and warned before… do it.
by TheHawkRules on May 27, 2009 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions
No, it stops with YOU not namecalling.
It’s real simple. Follow the rules or you won’t be allowed here.
And I don’t take bait.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Whatever
Ditch me from the site… you act like i am playing some game and I am not. What do I have to gain from being thrown away? NOTHING. I just won’t be tempted to come back to this place. I used to love it here, but for the most part… it’s become a place where a bunch of old house wives come and moan/groan and try to pick fights because they lack any kind of real life. I love the Cubs, but for the most part… I don’t love Cub fans. This site is the reason for that.
Monkeys like the ones here…They cower away when they really make somebody mad. I don’t care what YOU say Al… if somebody treats me like crap, kicks me in balls, etc… I’ve going to give them heck back. If you don’t like it, then throw me out… but your little “bait” crap…whatever that means, well… it can take a back seat. Eventually, what goes around comes around and you too well get hurt from allowing this stupidity to continue. Whether you agree with me or not.
by TheHawkRules on May 27, 2009 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions
LOL, I just went down to the jerk store, and apparently they're all stocked up with me.
Just having some fun with you, dude. Don’t take it so personally. You state your opinion on the Interblurbz and you should expect to have it challenged. It’s kinda how this whole thing works.
So here I go again: RBI are a team-dependent stat. They don’t really tell you all that much about the player named Derrek Lee. What we do know is that, in 57 PAs in the month of May, Monsieur Lee is still sporting a 1.011 OPS. That’s up from a .537 OPS in 83 PAs in April. Small samples to be sure, but it’s all we have to go on in the here and now. So I’d say, at the very least, rumors of his demise are, at best, indeterminant.
Take a deep breath and chill. We’re all Cubs fans here.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Take a deep breath and chill. We’re all Cubs fans here.
That’s funny… I’ve been saying that to you to try to get you to just leave me alone… but now, you just decide to chill?
That’s low man. There may be a lot of Cub fans on this site, but I don’t know how many good people there are. It’s just sad… there is nothing wrong with people challenging another position/thoughts/opinions… but when you get on there and diss them personally, that goes beyond a challenge. You guys did it… and it pissed me off because it was just stupid and pointless. It wasn’t to challenge anyone… it was just to be a jerk…
by TheHawkRules on May 27, 2009 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions
As for DLee
“RBI are a team-dependent stat. They don’t really tell you all that much about the player named Derrek Lee. "
RBI’s are a team-dependent stat, but, he is our number 3 man in the line-up. There was no reason why he doesn’t have drove in a 100 last year, nor, this year. This team walks a lot, has a lot of men on base. Personally, I believe you can look at an assortment of stats for our number 3-4 guy, but one of the most important is RBI’s. He there to drive in the runs… to be our number 1 hitter. Lee hasn’t been doing that. Even if he’s risen his average to .240… that still isn’t cutting it. By no means.
Feel free to personally attack me now like you have been…
by TheHawkRules on May 27, 2009 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions
NO
We suck because we’re not in first going into June! ARGH!!!
See how dumb that sounds. Especially with the ARGH!
Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!
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