As Fonzie goes....
by KaliCub on May 28, 2009 10:50 PM CDT
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PrintOkay I was preparing this post and it came up in the thread yesterday also. So this will be the...
Official 2009 post for moving Sori out of the leadoff spot. For new posters and for old posters that haven't grown so tired of the debate as to dismiss opinions. But if you are tired of the debate, then just click back out of here and leave the newbies here to talk. Think of it like therapy you've gone through and it's made you feel better, now let the new kids get some therapy for themselves. I do welcome alternative views, just not pictures of dead horses and snide comments.
And I did do my research and the only in season thing on this topic was a fanshot. But that wasn't really a discussion, more of a pile on of posters that didn't want to see the subject raised at all.
Also before you say it has been tried before with no success. 2009 2 games batting third, 2008 2 games batting 2nd, 2007 9 games out of the leadoff spot. Hardly a large sample size,eh?
We all know that Soriano is a unique talent and during the course of a season can literally carry the team for periods of time. But with those streaks of greatness, come streaks of futility. Some great hitters have been streaky in the careers and that comes with their nature. But when you put that hitter on the top of your lineup, you are at the mercy of that hitter to be hot when it is most needed. (playoffs)
And are we just crossing our fingers that he is hot when the playoffs happen? I think we all know now that Lou's lefty obsession is not the cure for a team wide slump as evidenced by last weeks swoon.
The Cubs are at the mercy of their sparkplug, during victories this year Sori has a tremendous 1.075 OPS. But during their losses Sori has a .527 OPS. So a star hitter doesn't do well and the team suffers, newsflash. But the rub comes that from the top of the lineup in front of the RBI men, it can hurt the team's run production. And his OBP during losses is .218. How can you even manufacture a run when your leadoff guy can't get on base?
In victories this year Sori in #1 in OPS for leadoff hitters. He is even 6th in OBP in our victories. But in losses he is 11th in OPS and 13th in OBP for leadoff hitters. So as Fonzie goes, so goes the team. And the difference in his OPS between wins and losses is the 2nd greatest in the league. (.511OPS diff)-coincidentally that is Miles's OPS. And he has the third greatest difference in OBP (.180) Those are huge drops off in production.
And I know as the sun will rise tomorrow that he will get hot during the year and the team will put together some victories with him at leadoff. But again are we just crossing our fingers that he will get hot when (and I mean when) we make the playoffs.
I will try to anticipate the opposing views. Well, we won 97 games last year with him at leadoff. And yes, you would be right the disparity was there last year as well, his OPS in victories was 1.031 and .582 in losses. My answer to that would be last years Cubs had the perfect storm of production from hitters 1-8, the lowest OPS in our order was .688 from the 2 hole and .781 from the 8 spot. All other positions were above .800. You could've picked the lineup out of a hat and had good production last year. This year's Cubs are not last year's Cubs with that respect and besides that regular season is not my point. We need to go farther in the playoffs. And the lesser hitters will be overcome during the playoffs by better pitching and we need the better hitters to come through, especially with runners on base. And his disparity in OPS between wins and losses is the largest in the last 4 years of playoffs teams. (I didn't even check farther than that). When he is cold it is hard for a playoff team to make up the short fall when your leadoff guy doesn't get on base.
He only bats leadoff in the first inning. Right now he is leading the team in PA for leadoff of inning with 85. The next closest person in PA is Riot with 37. Not strange considering that Riot follows Sori in the lineup. But if you take off the 45 games played, then they're about even in leadoff of innings not being the first. But then from a different perspective, you will guarantee him that he bats with no one on base for 150 at bats in a year in addition to the innings which come up naturally as the lineup turns. Don't you want a big bat to come up with chances to drive in runners on base instead of just himself?
But he doesn't feel comfortable in any other spot. I think he also didn't want to be switched to the OF a few years ago, probably perceived decrease in free agent value, and he has adapted to that in time. If you try something, I hope we can agree to try something for more than 2 games. I get the feeling that most here would like to switch him, but are worried about his feelings and thus drop off in production. I wouldn't mind if his OPS in wins went down a little if that meant his OPS went up in losses.
Our window is closing on these players, I am more than worried that if we don't make it with this team, it might take years to do get there again. I've said my peace, I hope beyond hope that the Cubs win a world series. I just wanted to put this out there for us newbies so we can discuss a relevant if not much discussed issue.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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A well articulated
thought out, and well argued post. Much props for the forethought. With the way the Cubs offense has been this year, I would be more than willing to see the change made. That being said, I highly doubt it will ever happen, just because too many people, most especially Lou, stick to the “We have won with him batting leadoff” mantra until the end of time it seems.
P.S. Unfortunately, I am willing to bet that many, many posters will be snide and rude in this post.
Thanks, thats why all the disqualifiers for the post.
I like a good debate, but just because they talked about it last year doesn’t mean we can’t talk about it now.
But I think Lou really wants to make the change, he just can’t afford it now because of all the slumps happening at the same time.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Hey Kali
Let me prepare you for some of the responses you’ll get to this.
Al will say “There’s no point to this conversation, he will never be moved. Let’s drop it.”
Some will say “I’m with you! I’m tired of his B.S. in the leadoff spot!”
Others will say “Love those lead-off HR’s!”
I personally agree. I also think Theriot has lost the plot hitting #2. God knows who should be hitting up there though.
I have nothing funny or creative to write.
by Canadian Cubs Fan on May 28, 2009 11:01 PM CDT reply actions
if a-ram was healthy..
..dome should be hitting two with rammy in the third spot.
Good call.
I have nothing funny or creative to write.
by Canadian Cubs Fan on May 28, 2009 11:05 PM CDT up reply actions
okay
then when Aram comes back, you could go Aram, Bradley, Sori, Lee from 3-6.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Id think hed be good in the 4 hole
His strikeouts could be tolerated in b/t two more patient hitters
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
I actually
haven’t given a great deal of thought of which spot to put him in, just get him out of the leadoff spot.
ARam, Sori, Bradley, Lee also works for me.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
I would have Sori 3
with ARam 4. With Rami protecting Sori he will see better pitches
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Good point
Plus another potential hitter to get on base in front of Aram. I’ll go with that too.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
That's not true
Lou even tried it again this year. It wasn’t dead even through last’s years meager try.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
I say this is as good of time as any
Soriano isn’t really hitting that great at the moment so you can’t argue he’s at his best in leadoff right now.
I think it’s worth the risk for 1 week.
I'd like to personally try it out for 2 weeks and see what happens.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Why not
Soriano can’t use the excuse anymore he feels more comfortable at the leadoff. That only works when you’re hitting 10HR’s a month and batting atleast .290.
And its gonna
take more than 2 games for him to get out of the uncomfortable feeling he has batting somewhere else.
Now is just a good time as any, you sure wouldn’t want to do it when he is on one his good streaks.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
YEAH
BUT SORIANO HAS SAID HE IS WILLING TO MOVE DOWN IN THE LINE UP. SO DONT MAKE IT SEEM LIKE HE IS REFUSING. ITS ALL ON LOU.
woo hoo
your caps lock key works….
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
I never said he refused
But I’m sure with every interview he says he’s willing to move down he’s also going to say he’s most comfortable batting leadoff.
that would be
because he is. And so is the team.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 29, 2009 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions
.f hitting .250 is comfortable
I hate to imagine what he would look like uncomfortable.
Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living."
As Fonzie went...
I like Fonzie, but we are losing. Gotta do whatever we have to so that we can win some games. If moving him from leadoff can get us wins, then so be it. We need to win. Who would take his place and do a good job?
My lineup choice right now
riot, dome, sori, bradley, lee, soto, fonty/blanco, scales
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
I think we just have to accept it..... but
The fact you actually did research, didn’t call anyone (players or other posters) names and are willing to listen to others point of view gets kudos from me.
Count me in as what ever the opposite of fan post police are. :)
"That's what you live for. You live for the opportunity and when that day comes, you better be ready," Soto said. "I tried to make sure that whenever they gave me a chance, I was ready and I knew I had to take advantage of the opportunity."
by Madison Cub Fan on May 28, 2009 11:28 PM CDT reply actions
Thanks Madison
So your view is that you want him moved but don’t want to since he doesn’t want to? Don’t want to put words in your mouth just trying to get what the consensus is out there.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Not not quite
I realize that he is our lead off hitter for better or for worse b/c that is what Lou really wants. So I’ve just accepted it as fact.
"That's what you live for. You live for the opportunity and when that day comes, you better be ready," Soto said. "I tried to make sure that whenever they gave me a chance, I was ready and I knew I had to take advantage of the opportunity."
by Madison Cub Fan on May 29, 2009 12:04 AM CDT up reply actions
sorry, just thought by your first title that you were displeased.
Thanks for clarifying.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
This has been visited many times before, but my response is "Would it make a big
difference if he were batting third?" When he is going bad like he is now, won’t he kill as many rallies from the 3 hole as he has from the 1 hole? When he goes bad, he goes really bad. If the first two batters get on and he comes up o the plate now, he’s still going to swing at those sliders in the dirt. I just don’t know if the rsult will be any different.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on May 28, 2009 11:36 PM CDT reply actions
But don't forget the other thing about it
Someone else(prob Riot) will be in the leadoff spot. And getting on base more often too.
Yes, when he strikes out with runners on (as he did tonight), that will happen to any hitter. But he is a gifted hitter and when he does hit, there should be more runners on base so when he does hit he can drive more runners in.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
I guess the point is that when he is going bad, it really doesn't matter where he is
in the lineup. Invariably, he going to come up with runners on base and he’s going to strike out like he did tonight. You make a good point about him coming up more often with runner in scoring position. The problem is that he is a poor hitter with RISP. He really is an enigma.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on May 28, 2009 11:50 PM CDT up reply actions
last year OPS RISP was .975
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
"getting on base more often"
Theriot’s career OBP is .360.
Soriano’s is .330.
So let’s forget all of the great things about Soriano as a leadoff guy – that, for instance, he’s much more likely to have already scored, or put himself into scoring position with an extra base hit or a steal – this means that 1 out of 30 times Theriot’s going to get on base when Soriano fails.
1/30. Is that really going to make a material difference?
career obp
doesn’t mean much especially for a younger player like Riot. Take a look at the last couple of years, yes, but not the whole career. Last year Riot was .387 vs Sori’s 344. Not cherry picking, just the last full year. You wouldn’t want to gain .040 points in a category? And I’ll even take your career numbers and say the same.
So you have a .270 hitter on the market and a .300 hitter on the market, you don’t think there is a difference between the two hitters? We are talking increasing possibilities here and the extra benefit of Sori hitting more often with runners on base, an extra benefit. There are 2 pluses in my eyes.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Ok so it's .04 difference
that means 1 out of 25 times. 1 more hit every 5 games.
I’m as statistically oriented as they come but you have to look at the numbers and understand what they mean. Is there a difference between a .270 hitter and a .300 hitter? Sure – about 1 hit every 5-6 games.
Theriot isn’t the kind of player you want to give the most at bats on the team to; Soriano’s career OPS is 100 points higher, so the amount of scoring he will result in by getting the most at bats on the team is much higher than Theriot’s.
You have this romanticized notion of the need for a “table setter” in your head and like a lot of fans it’s blinding you to the fact that Soriano is actually an extremely effective leadoff hitter.
Effective when he is going good
but the thrust of my position is when he is going bad that it is hard for the team to makeup the short fall from the leadoff spot.
Nothing romantic about it, why does manager after manger put speedy high OBP in the leadoff spot? Not my romantic ideals, just trying to offer a suggestion that will help us win games and succeed in the playoffs.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
why does manager after manger put speedy high OBP in the leadoff spot?
Because they’re more likely to score. Soriano, statistically, is more likely to put himself in scoring position, either through a stolen base or an extra base hit, or score himself.
The stats simply aren’t on your side in this argument. I’m not sure why you keep trying to come back to them.
he really hasn't stolen that many bases
the last 2 years(leg problems).
But when he gets cold…
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
When he gets cold he makes up for it when he gets hot
The notion that an out in the 1 position is somehow more detrimental than an out in the 3rd position is somewhat alien to me. An out is an out.
Even without the stolen bases he’s still significantly more likely to be in scoring position or already scored when the #2 hitter comes up.
The main thrust of my post
was not he doesn’t make up for it in the long haul. (sorry for the double negative) Because I totally agree with you over 150-160 games that we will be okay with him at leadoff. I am talking about his cold spells during the year and using that as a reference for our swoons come playoff time when we face better pitching.
Do you think a team can win with Aaron Miles at leadoff with his .527 OPS? Because when he is cold, that is what we have. I just don’t want to cross my fingers and pray that he gets hot when we make the playoffs in order for us to have a chance.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
What?
I think you need to look up the term “selective endpoints”.
You’re not making any sense. He makes up for it over 150 games except that he doesn’t. Or that Lou should be able to psychically predict Soriano’s cold spells and move him down in the lineup when he feels one coming in his bones?
His cold streaks hurt us no matter where he is in the lineup. But like you said, he makes up for them by being really good at baseball.
Let me say it this way
When he is hot, he can carry the team batting in the eighth spot. That 1.075 OPS in victories is so big that hitting anywhere can carry the team.
As for his cold streaks, I think it hurts us more when he is in the leadoff spot. If he is cold and batting say 3rd or 4th then we still have another RBI in the middle to drive in a runner. Why do you think there is such a great disparity for him in OPS in our wins and losses? Because that .527 OPS hurts us especially in the leadoff spot. We have a comparable player in OPS and that is MIles, would you ever bat Miles leadoff? OR do you think we can overcome Miles in the lineup at say batting lower in the lineup.
And as for Lou to psychically predict when Soriano is cold, sometimes you have to look at your past in order to predict the future…2007 playoffs….2008 playoffs. When your leadoff hitter is cold it is a tremendous drag on the team.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
all I know is
that when Theriot was batting leadoff, there were MULTIPLE times, late in games, where he came up to bat and we all said “wow, wouldn’t it have been great if Soriano had been there to bat instead” because Riot SUCKED.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 30, 2009 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions
A lot of fanposts
seem to take a position, then try to twist the evidence around to support that position.
Lies, damn lies and statistics, I guess.
by Not Bruce Froemming on May 30, 2009 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions
I hope you're generalizing
and not talking specifically about this post.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Probably not
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 3, 2009 12:14 AM CDT up reply actions
There's multiple reason for his position in the batting order
1) Soriano is a fastball hitter, he gets many more fast balls in the leadoff spot than anywhere else in the lineup.
2) Soriano has an OPS under .700 with runners in scoring position, he’s not a player to drive in runs.
3) I don’t have the exact stats handy, but Soriano is statistically a much better hitter in the leadoff spot than anywhere else in the lineup, and its not a small sample size either.
4) Yes, he only bats leadoff once in a game, but putting him in a different position in the lineup completely changes the pitchers approach for the entire game if he is in the middle of the lineup.
Basically he doesn’t produce anywhere but in the leadoff spot.
"It's been my policy to view the Internet not as an 'information highway,' but as an electronic asylum filled with babbling loonies." - Mike Royko
counterpoints
1) Why would a pitcher change his approach to Sori based on his position in the order. Sure game conditions with runners on base, but that wouldn’t matter where he hit. If he hit 3rd and ledoff an inning, he would be pitched the same as in the 1st.
2) I can only go by last years stats since this year is only 40 games old. And his OPS with RISP last year was .975 and even .860 with any runners on base.
3)my point is that it hasn’t been tried in the last 3 years to any real degree. You cannot really go by career splits as a leadoff hitter. I think he is a much different hitter than he was 6 years ago. I believe he was changed to leadoff in 2005 and the change was small statistically.
4)actually when you put him leadoff, he bats after the pitcher which will make him more likely to leadoff an inning than if he hit somewhere else. Don’t you want the pitchers to have to change their approach, thats how mistakes happen.
Give it a real try.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
So you don't want snarky responses
but you give them yourself? “Give it a real try”?
"It's been my policy to view the Internet not as an 'information highway,' but as an electronic asylum filled with babbling loonies." - Mike Royko
Sorry you misunderstood
Give it a real try was in reference to having him hit anywhere else for longer than 2 games.
Not meant to be a shot at you.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Here's some real responses for you
1) Pitchers throw a player leading off or without runners on base more fastballs than breaking balls. You don’t want to walk batters with men more so than when the bases are empty.
2) Why can you only go by last year’s stats? Are you only capable of looking up stats from 2008? Here’s his career numbers with runners in scoring position vs. bases empty:
.252 .325 .464 .789
vs
.290 .331 .538 .869
Yes, the OBP is close, but he hits quite a bit better in all other categories with the bases empty.
3) I found his career stats from different places in the lineup, I will stick to First, Third, and Fifth as that is where he has seen the most AB’s over his career, second and fourth are horrible and would only help to further my argument but their sample size is small so I will ignore them for this.
First: .291 .341 .548 .890 (3488 plate appearances)
Third: .258 .307 .449 .757 (696 pa)
Fifth: .268 .312 .513 .824 (626 pa)
He isn’t bad out of the 5th spot, but he is clearly better in the leadoff spot.
4) I am not sure what you are saying there, but it seems as though you are making my argument for me. If he is comfortable leading off an inning, he would get more plate appearances leading off an inning when the pitcher bats 9th. So not sure how to respond.
"It's been my policy to view the Internet not as an 'information highway,' but as an electronic asylum filled with babbling loonies." - Mike Royko
but
1) yes the situation decides how the pitchers pitches, we agree on that. But are you saying that he wouldn’t hit as many homers unless he bats leadoff in the first inning? Hitters have this way of figuring things out and picking their spots with what the pitcher does.
2)Well, 2008 is not a cherry picked stat, it’s his last completed season. The reason I do not put weight into career stats is that I don’t care what he did in 2001 or 2002 for the Yankees, I would hope he has grown over that time as a hitter. I would be more than willing to crunch numbers from the last couple of years, just not 6-7 years ago. Yes, I am fully capable of looking up numbers from other years as you are, no need for that.
3)same arguement as #2, career OPS means little to me if it was done 5-6-7 years ago. My main point of contention is that it hasn’t been tried in the last 3 years.
4) trying to rebut two arguements there, If he bats leadoff then he will follow a pitcher for the rest of the game making it more likely that he will have to bat leadoff more times in a game. And changing the pitchers approach to our lineup should be a welcome thing. It sure seems pitchers are having an easy time going through the lineup nowadays.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree
And as for the snark in #2, I wrote that before you responded to my previous post about the, what I viewed as, snarky response you had. So sorry about that.
I can see your argument for looking at last year’s stats over a career, but I guess I am just more of a whole career production than a single year for judging player. And yes, duly noted on that he hasn’t seen much time anywhere but in the leadoff spot over the last 3 years.
"It's been my policy to view the Internet not as an 'information highway,' but as an electronic asylum filled with babbling loonies." - Mike Royko
no problem with disagreement
The problem with career production numbers for example is DLee, his career OPS with RISP is .870 but last year we got .788. It doesn’t capture a downward trend or it puts career years, like in 2005 1.133, which inflates the numbers. I’d rather know what the hitter has done for the last 1-3 years.
As for the misunderstanding, I could’ve been more clear in my post in what I was referring to. We’re good, good debate overall.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
The one thing to think about
When constructing a lineup we have limitations compared to last year.
We have too many players who just aren’t hitting for a good average. It seemed like last year no matter who you batted 1-8, you were going to score runs.
So do we treat the leadoff spot differently? Do we put someone else in there who ISN’T getting on base? The reason I say this is that having a batter at #3 or #4 who is hitting .200 isn’t helping the team if #’s 1-3 are getting hits. Yes this is directed towards Milton Bradley more than anyone else.
If Lou can construct a lineup that has our better hitters grouped together to score more runs more often and it involves Soriano moving down in the lineup then it should be given a chance.
Overall I’m not too worried right now. Tonight the Dodgers had a good pitching staff and we did get 9 hits. We should have scored more runs. But don’t forget Dodgers have the best record in the NL and they could only get 2 runs off our #5 starter and one of our weakest relievers.
Wait I correct myself, Heilman was not weak tonight because Lou had him start an inning instead of having inherited runners.
All the more reason
to treat the leadoff spot differently. We are not going to get last year’s production out of this year’s team. And if we aren’t going to score as many runs, we need to try to put up as many as we can. Hopefully instead of solo homers from Sori they can be 2 or 3 run blasts. I think you put it best about constructing a lineup that bunches your best hitters together to give you the best chance to put runs on the board.
Yes I agree that Bradley and others have been a drag so far, but I have faith in him, he will hit this year for us.
I’m not worried about the season either, we will make the playoffs, I have that faith. I am just worried about what has happened with the Offense the last couple of years in the playoffs.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
The whole thing is laughable
When Soriano was in Washington and stealing all those bases, he had value as a leadoff hitter. Well, he admitted the other day that he’s playing with a sore knee.
He is the single most impatient hitter in the lineup, and the single biggest streak hitter in the lineup. When he’s hot, great, when he’s not, it looks ugly. A lot of talk in this post has him moving down to 3rd or 4th. I’d move him down to 5th.
Lee seems to be getting out of his funk. He hasn’t hit into many DP’s (1, I think) and his power is pretty much gone. He doesn’t strike out much. All these variables add up to hitting him 2nd. Either that or someone needs to talk to Theriot about respecting the 2-hole. He’s killing me right now with his lack of quality AB’s.
I have nothing funny or creative to write.
by Canadian Cubs Fan on May 29, 2009 6:40 AM CDT reply actions
respecting the 2-hole?
TWSS
Linus: Life is rarely all one way, Charlie Brown. You win some, you lose some. Charlie Brown: Really? Gee, that'd be neat.
by CyberCyclist on May 29, 2009 6:53 AM CDT up reply actions
don't think Lee would be good in the 2 spot
That hitter needs to hit the opposite way, sacrifice himself, make contact…not attributes for DLee.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Actually
The two hitter should probably be your best hitter given that the 2 hole has the best balance of more runners on base and more plate appearances. So… not attributes for DLee :)
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 3, 2009 12:16 AM CDT up reply actions
The fact is
The team plays about .500 when he’s not in the game.
The team plays about .300 when he’s in the game batting anywhere but leadoff
The team plays about .600 when he’s in the leadoff spot.
Why mess with that? Because he’s slumping? Moving a player around is NOT going to help him come through a slump any faster.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
facts...
The team plays about .500 when he’s not in the game.Who said anything about benching Sori?
The team plays about .300 when he’s in the game batting anywhere but leadoffSmall try,we haven’t even really tried it out.
The team plays about .600 when he’s in the leadoff spot.I’m with you that the regular season with his streakiness, he will do okay over a period of time, but you are rolling the dice and crossing fingers that when the playoffs hit that he will get hot.
Well if you wouldn’t want to mess with someone that is a groove, I think we can agree with that. Why wouldn’t you want to make changes when things aren’t going well. I am talking long term here.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
I was simply
providing a frame of reference. The team plays BETTER with him NOT in the lineup than with him batting ANYWHERE that leadoff. They play TWICE AS GOOD when he’s batting leadoff.
I don’t think you mess with that.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 29, 2009 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions
We'll see comes playoffs..
When he is leadoff and cold it is a drag on the team.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
gotta get there first
a team playing .300 doesn’t get to the playoffs.
And I’m really tired of people trying to blame the playoffs on individual players. The TEAM lost those games. NO ONE HIT. The pitching was uninspired. Game 2 last year was a host of errors.
You can’t lay that at the feet of any one player.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 29, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Not blaming the playoffs on only Sori
Well established that the whole team didn’t hit. And we’ve seen it twice now. My point is that the caliber of pitching is better in the playoffs and we need to get as many runs as possible. How can you do that if you have your most streaky hitter as your table setter?
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
because, again
they play .600 ball with him batting first, play .500 ball with him not in the lineup, and play .300 ball with him batting anywhere BUT first.
Do you understand this? They lose more with him batting down in the lineup THEN THEY DO WITHOUT HIM PLAYING AT ALL.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 29, 2009 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions
no need to shout dood
.500 ball with him not in the lineup, he is an every day player you can’t use that as a metric since the days off are sporadic and not a good sample. And I am in no way saying to take his much needed bat out of the lineup. Of course not having him in the lineup would be bad.
.300 ball with him batting anywhere but first, once again he has not really been tried for any extensive period of batting anywhere else in the order.
You may disagree, but that is your opinion. There haven’t been any facts on this so called experiment if we haven’t really tried it at all.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
oy vey ismir.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 29, 2009 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions
way too small a sample size of him not in the leadoff spot
to make this a legit point
Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living."
That is just awful reasoning
All evidence suggests that The Cubs would play better (IE, score more runs) with him down in the order.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 3, 2009 12:17 AM CDT up reply actions
and yet
the evidence doesn’t. The Cubs play better when he’s at leadoff. They play better when he DOESN’T PLAY than when he DOES play and doesn’t bat leadoff.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on Jun 3, 2009 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions
Double wow
So now we go on 2 games as evidence of things not working. I hope the next time you get a promotion that your boss gives you more than 2 days to get it right.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
I won't argue
All I’ll say is review the game yesterday and see why I don’t want Soriano in the middle of the lineup.
When I saw the title of this post...
… I thought it was going to be about the fact that Soriano is a notorious streak hitter.
When he doesn’t hit, the team slumps. When he does, he can carry the team, as he did in September 2007 and right after he got off the DL last July.
When that happens I don’t care where he’s hitting, because he DOES hit.
And yes, this discussion is pointless because he’s never going to be moved.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Whew, I was concerned
for a second you’d let the pointless argument pass without mention. Who is this Al guy anyway?
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
The creator
and high ruler of BCB.
All must heed his warnings, and all must conform to his standards.
If he says your post is pointless, then it must be so, and you should feel ashamed.
so
it’s also pointless to talk about Riot being switched to 2B because he isn’t going to be moved. But there are many folks here that love to bring that one up.
Again I say, if it was settled, why did Lou try it again this year. although limited.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
well
because for one thing, moving Riot to second would make the team better.
Moving Soriano in the order wouldn’t.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 29, 2009 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions
IMHO
moving Sori down would make the team better.
Point was the futility of talking about it. If Lou’s decisions are the gauge for what we can talk about then my Riot example fits.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
moving Sori down would make the team better.
The numbers directly contradict that.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 29, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions
if we haven't really tried it
what numbers do you speak of?
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
we have really tried it.
the numbers were put in an earlier fanpost. I don’t remember which one. It was around the time Lou moved him down for the two or three days.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 29, 2009 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions
They are in my post
2009 2 games
2008 2 games
2007 9 games
That isn’t trying it out IMHO.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
this is the best part.
the only IMHO, is ILHO.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 29, 2009 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions
trying to lighten the mood between us
BTW, what does ILHO stand for?
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
In
Lou’s
Humble
Opinion.
As in he’s tried Sori in different spots in the lineup, and he understands that Sori — and the team as a whole — plays best when he bats first.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 29, 2009 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
and the numbers I refer to
are the team’s records when he bats in different spots.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 29, 2009 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions
I can cure Soriano's Slump
I realize he’s a streaky hitter, so when he’s in a slump, I try to go with the flow until he gets out of it. About the time I get to the point I can’t take it anymore, he starts to hit. So here goes:
I can’t stand him, he’s killling the team, the Cubs have no chance as long as he’s on the team. Trade him, send him to the minors, have him bat 3rd (or 6th or 9th).
There, I’ve done my part. I’m anxious to see if my cure will work for this afternoon’s game.
by CubbieFaninOhio on May 29, 2009 10:20 AM CDT reply actions
Did you
also turn around 3 times, throw salt over your shoulders and spit?
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
I forgot that
Do I have to? Right now, Fonzie already looks like he’s doing all those things every at bat.
by CubbieFaninOhio on May 29, 2009 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions
It worked...........
make sure to do it tomorrow again :)
"That's what you live for. You live for the opportunity and when that day comes, you better be ready," Soto said. "I tried to make sure that whenever they gave me a chance, I was ready and I knew I had to take advantage of the opportunity."
by Madison Cub Fan on May 29, 2009 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Soriano leads off with HRs
I guarantee that because of the leadoff HRs he hits he gives the Cubs more runs out of the leadoff spot than Theriot getting a single and hoping some other player hits him in. If you want to say I’m generalizing, I want to see data on how many runs are scored in the 1st inning. There’s this fanciful idea that the leadoff hitter gets on base and then the other hitters hit him in. I never see data to back it up. I can tell you though when someone hits a HR, they score a run.
After the 1st inning, Soriano becomes an asset because he provides more power at the top of the lineup sooner than you would usually see it on other teams. It’s nice to have that.
2008 leadoff numbers
OBP.308
hits 27
runs 13
homers 5
bb 4
ko’s 23
babip .310
So he hit 5 homers leading off the game, don’t you think that if we increased the OBP of our leadoff guy, that would help the team?
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
If it was that simple, yes.
However, most believe he hits those HR’s because he sees more fastballs in the leadoff spot. If he could still hit the HRs down in the order, then he would get the RBI’s. If he k’s more often, the opportunity is wasted and better to have a better RBI guy drive in the run.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
last year OPS RISP was .975
He’s not as bad as some make him out to be.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
"don’t you think that if we increased the OBP of our leadoff guy, that would help the team?"
How? There is no guarantee that guy would score. Most baserunners don’t score when they get on base.
“last year OPS RISP was .975”
It’s nice to have that late in the game when you have no idea when you are going to get runners on base. Instead of having Theriot or Scales up, you get Soriano.
by IllinoisCubs on May 29, 2009 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions
We're talking about increasing the odds.
All ballplayers fail more often then they succeed. So the numbers are important that if you can increase the possibility of success then that should help you score more runs.
Like going from a 348 OBP to a 388 OBP. You are increasing your odds of getting on base more often.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
and decreasing your OPS in later innings for that spot
it’s a trade off, not a net gain. You don’t seem to grasp this concept very well.
Let’s pretend the 1st inning existed in a vacuum though and the rest of the game didn’t matter. How many runs are lost by having Soriano lead off instead of Theriot? How would you even prove that? That also suggests that everyone adjusts 100% perfectly from the different roles they had over the past 2 1/2 years.
I think I grasp it quite well...
Yes, we lose his slugging from the top spot when we replace him with a better OBP. But you also get the benefit of that slugging percentage coming into play with hopefully a runner on base in front of Sori. Get my point?
That also suggests that everyone adjusts 100% perfectly from the different roles they had over the past 2 1/2 years. But you never know until you try, heck maybe he gets even better and drives in 130 RBI’s
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Soriano leads off with HRs
Exactly. Soriano hits more homers than anyone else on the team. So wouldn’t those homeruns be maximized if he had more runner on bases when he hit them?
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 3, 2009 12:19 AM CDT up reply actions
Rec'd for a good article..
And to recycle the list a little.. gettin’ a little stale up there.
by DisCUBbobulated on May 29, 2009 12:39 PM CDT reply actions
ok lets end the Soriano talk again
I wish he could be batting elsewhere, but the numbers stack in his favor as leading off
Here is a list of 3 OPS listings over a career (OPS is on-base +slugging percentage). One of these is Soriano hitting leadoff, another is Soriano hitting 3rd, and another when Soriano hit 5th in the order:
.892
.761
.824
The .892 is when he hits leadoff and he has over 3,000 ABs hitting leadoff, with 631 ABs hitting 3rd (.761 OPS) and 583 ABs hitting 5th (.824 OPS). He is simply more comfortable and more productive hitting at the top, for whatever reason, than at any other spot in the lineup.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
okay let's break it down
2003 .875 primarily leadoff hitter
2004 .907 leadoff .804 hitting third
2005 .781 leadoff .838 hitting 5th
2006 .956 primarily leadoff
2007 .924 primarily leadoff
2008 .894 primarily leadoff
Does it matter how he hit back in 2004 or even 2005. I hope he has become a better hitter in time. So for your thesis, the only 2 seasons that he had been really tried at diff spots was 2004 and 2005 and those results are mixed.
My theory is that when he is cold and at the top of the lineup that .527 OPS is hard to overcome.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
.527 OPS is like having Miles at the top of the order
when Sori’s cold.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
then when he is cold, he should not be in the middle either, but the last third
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
You can tell him that, I won't
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Sori hitting 3rd.
Here’s one of the things about Soriano. We’ve got him for a while yet. And when his skills start to deteriorate, we’re going to be looking at a hitter whose OBP is too low for lead-off and who doesn’t run either.
In an ideal world, having Soriano hit 3rd is the best place for him. Batting third , he’s least likely to come up with a man on and 2 outs. So, when he’s cold, that 4th hitter will still get a chance. And when he’s hot he can still be instant offense, this time maybe even with someone on base.
The question is whether or not Sori’s stats batting 3rd reflect a real inability to bat there (because he feasts on first pitch FBs, perhaps?), or if managers just stick him there, he gets cold, and then they give up and move him without letting him get hot again.
Is Sean Marshall our most dependable starter?
Yep, we agree on all the counts
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Batting third , he’s least likely to come up with a man on and 2 outs
Actually the number 3 hitter bats in those situations more than any other spot in the order :)
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Jun 3, 2009 12:21 AM CDT up reply actions
I've got a better idea...
…be a smarter hitter and realize when you’re struggling the only pitch you’re going to see with any regularity is the slider/curveball really low, and really outside. I never can understand how a professional hitter could not realize that when a ball starts low and away, its going to end lower and further away. Unless someone has invented a rise ball in baseball that I’m not aware of, it shouldn’t be that hard.
Most catchers are a dead giveaway. Take Molina for example, he lays one leg on the ground and is hanging in the left haded batter’s box. I don’t care if you call it cheating. Take a peak man. I catch, I know how easy it is to see a catcher setting up in that spot.
Its funny, you spend most of your life gripping a baseball. And in the end, its almost always the other way around.
Hitters have a fraction of a second to decide
if it’s a fastball or a slider. Some do it better than others. For better or worse Sori is going to be the same hitter he always has, it’s just how we decide how to use him.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
I'm fullly aware
of how long they have to decide, and I can tell you that has nothing to do with recognizing thats the only pitch you’re going to get. And when you’re expecting that you’re going to get that pitch, and you do get it, you see it right away, no matter how long a reaction time you have.
Its funny, you spend most of your life gripping a baseball. And in the end, its almost always the other way around.
You are saying you want him to become a guess hitter that is looking for sliders only.
(I agree he looks bad at times on that pitch) But pitchers and hitters constantly battle with approach at the plate. Cat and Mouse. We all know that Sori is a fastball hitter but yet he still gets them and sometimes hits them for HRs. Why, because of the cat and mouse thing.
So if they know that Sori starts hitting sliders they will bust him with fastballs. And then we’ll get frustrated with how come he can’t catch up to the fastball anymore.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
That's not guess hitting.
When you’re struggling at bats are about preparation and adjustments. If you don’t adjust you’re dead meat.
The last few weeks the first pitch is 98% of the time way low, and way outside. So too is a 2 strike pitch. He should be able to adjust to what the opposing pitcher is doing.
He should come to the plate while pitchers are using the same M.O. to get him out with a specific plan. Sit dead red fastball middle in until he has a strike. If he goes down 0-1, then he’s looking fastball. If he’s 0-2 he’s just looking to protect and he’ll probably chase. However anyone who has watched his at bats consistantly the last few weeks knows he would never be down 0-2 with this plan. They’re not even trying to throw the breaking ball for a strike. They just try to get it remotely close to the plate.
Obviously if he gets a cement mixer curveball down the middle he should try and give it a ride. But for the most part he won’t see a breaking ball strike the first pitch a vast majority of the time. I’m not advocating that he be this picky all year. But when you’re struggling that bad you need to make temporary adjustments. I’m sure you know how far it can go for a hitter to draw some walks and lay off pitches they generally swing at.
Its funny, you spend most of your life gripping a baseball. And in the end, its almost always the other way around.
Thanks to everyone for the debate.
Both pro and con, you argued your points of view and kept it above board. Thanks
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Know what the never-ending "where to bat Fonzie" debate reminds me of?
This old chestnut:
Question: “Why hell doesn’t Frey/Michael/Zimmer move Sandberg down in the batting order? His power is wasted when he bats 2nd!”
Answer: “Ryno’s a fastball hitter. When Dernier/Martinez/Walton gets on base, the pitcher has to worry about the stolen base so he throws fastballs to Sandberg.”
Next, we’ll discuss the fact that Sandberg always takes the first pitch, that every pitcher in the league knows it, so they just throw him a fastball down the pipe and, as a result, he’s always behind in the count. Seriously Ryno, you’re getting a meatball down the middle on the first pitch so, just for a change, take the bat off your shoulder and swing at it.
Oh for simpler times…[sigh]
"I'd rather play baseball than eat." - Andy Pafko
How did that work for us?
I don’t remember popping any champagne back then. It’s not totally the same as this team is actually built dare I say, to win a championship now. And I’d sure like this team to push through where they’ve been the last couple of years.
You can have the simpler times, I’d like to win now.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
So would I.
But the fact Soriano hits leadoff has nothing to do with not winning in October.
The team has made the postseason twice with him hitting leadoff. I’m fine with that.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
The Sandberg reference was a joke...
Nostalgia aside, I wouldn’t trade this team for any of those late 80s/early 90s teams. Nothing about Soriano matches the frustration of, say, watching Shawon Dunston continually wave at sliders in the dirt.
As far as I’m concerned, Soriano’s insistence on being a leadoff man is all Joe Torre’s fault. Torre installed Soriano as the Yankee leadoff hitter in 2002 and refused to budge in the face of the same criticisms that still apply today. Soriano broke out that season, more the result of natural development than being shifted up the batting order. Because Torre was forced to defend that decision, he attributed Soriano’s improved performance to his place in the lineup. Soriano clearly bought in to his former manager’s simplistic, ipso facto logic…and, as a result, we’re arguing about this today. The only thing I can say in Torre’s defense was that such a strategy worked a bit better in the AL because the pitcher wasn’t batting in front of Soriano.
After posting last night, I did look up Sandberg’s splits, information that wasn’t so readily available in those simpler times. Ryno was about the same batting 3rd as he was in his preferred 2nd spot, .291/.356/.456 as opposed to .291/.348/.473.
"I'd rather play baseball than eat." - Andy Pafko
by LaddieRenfroe on May 30, 2009 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Soriano
leads off because his manager wants him to, because he hits better there, and because the team plays better there.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 30, 2009 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions
You've already stated that in response to other comments...
My own comments regarding Torre were trying to get at the root of why Lou feels compelled to leave Soriano in that spot or, in another sense, why Soriano is so “comfortable” leading off, a facet of the discussion that often takes a back seat to arguments about the results.
My opinion is that this is a self-fulfilling prophecy – a supposedly wise man once told Soriano that he was a lead off hitter and he pouts when removed from that place in the lineup. Because Soriano himself believes that he should be batting first, he loses sight of one of the most important rules of hitting when he’s moved down in the order. Namely, he expects to fail because he’s not in his preferred slot.
I admit that my statements are conjectural but the statistical evidence only goes so far; unless the player is (a) batting 8th, before the pitcher, or (b) batting in front of Babe Ruth, lineup position has a negligible effect on performance. So, if you assert that Soriano does peform better as a leadoff man and I accept that, the only thing left to do is speculate why Soriano supposedly performs so much better in that slot.
"I'd rather play baseball than eat." - Andy Pafko
by LaddieRenfroe on May 30, 2009 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Dealing with these mega stars can be very hard
Look at last year. I thought Marmol should close out of spring training over Wood. But Lou chose to go with Wood, I believe out of respect for the veteran or ego of Wood. And that turned out well as Woody had a good year.
It must be hard for managers to have to deal with the egos that go with these megastars. And sometimes you have to just do something for the good of the team, even though it doesn’t mesh well with a superstars ego. Makes the job a little tougher for the managers.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
No.
Wood closed because Marmol is better at putting out fires. Marmol is the guy you want to come in with two on and nobody out in the top of the 7th, with a 1 run lead. Marmol is the fireman.
Today, Woody and gone, and Gregg is the Closer. Marmol is still the fireman. Wanna tell me that’s because Lou “respects” Gregg more? Bull.
It has nothing to do with egos. It has to do with the fact that hitting leadoff helps Soriano PLAY BETTER.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 30, 2009 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't care why he does.
It’s enough that he does.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 30, 2009 6:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Soriano
leads off because his manager wants him toor is afraid to move him.
because he hits better thereWe haven’t really tried anything else in the last 3 years.
because the team plays better there. But when he is cold, it is a drag on the team and we lose more often.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
you think
Lou Piniella is afraid of ANYONE?
Today, Soriano went 0-5. The Cubs beat the best team in baseball 7-0. The first Dodger batter of each inning was retired seven times in a row.
Got any other theories to toss?
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 30, 2009 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions
C'mon Drew?!
You think you can refute my theory based on one game? That is lunacy. How about our just completed 8 game losing streak? .194 OBP .241 SLG .435 OPS. That somehow fits my theory but I didn’t use it in any of my arguments, did I?
I think Lou will defer to a star at times. I didn’t say he was afraid of anyone. Please don’t misstate my words. I said he was afraid to move him. Back to my earlier argument that he tried it last year for 2 games and if it was a settled matter why did he go back and try it again this year for 2 more games? He doesn’t want to take the time to give it a real try. Maybe in a couple of weeks, this comfortableness with Sori will fade and he’ll become even better in an RBI position. We will never know until he tries it out for a period of time.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
He doesn't want to give it time
because he knows it doesn’t work.
Did you watch any of the Spring Training games? They’ve tried Soriano down in the lineup in several ST games, and it doesn’t work.
IT DOESN’T WORK! Just forget about it!
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 30, 2009 9:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Actually I usually don't watch ST games.
I find them a little boring with stars only getting a couple of ABs and closers pitching the third inning, not the same as the season. But I took your bait in reference to Sori. Did you know that there aren’t any search able engines for spring training stats? So I went box score by box score.
I did not find any ST games in 2009 when Sori didn’t bat leadoff when he played. So then I thought about and realized you might be talking about 2008. And then I remembered the whole Roberts thing and realized they did switch his position to prepare for the trade that never happened.
So I did a little computing based on ST of 2008. He was moved out of the leadoff spot on 3/13/08. He played 13 games out of the leadoff spot. 11 times hitting 2nd(I wouldn’t put him there), 1 time hitting 3rd, and 1 time hitting 5th. And here are his stats for that period:
13G 42ABs 12H 10R 3 2B 3HR 10RBI 3BB 9K 24TB
for stats of 286AVG 333OBP 571SLG 904OPS
We did actually try him out for longer than 2 games and with GOOD RESULTS.
So are you still going to argue that he doesn’t hit well anywhere else?
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
You're not seriously arguing...
… that putting a player elsewhere in a spring training lineup would generate any results that would resemble regular season results?
Spring training games are played completely differently from regular season games. Pitchers and hitters approach games differently; the parks are different, tending to favor hitters; the weather is different, generally sunny and warm, unlike the first two months of the season in Chicago; and Arizona spring parks are at (approximately) 1500 feet altitude, making them (in general) launching pads.
Care to rephrase your argument?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
He brought up spring training not me.
I don’t believe in any of my arguments before that I brought up ST as a barometer of a player.
Maybe you should have replied to him since his used the ST argument as somehow proof against my argument. Maybe you should have aimed higher. :)
But if he is saying that Sori just doesn’t feel comfortable hitting anywhere else and will not hit anywhere else than yes ST of 2008 was a barometer for that.
That was my whole point with Drew, and was that we have not tried Sori anywhere else for an extended period of time. 13 games in ST was the longest we moved him out of that position.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Apologies if I confused the argument.
But you appeared to be using ST stats to back up your argument.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
they're trying to
I’m done with this argument. Sori hits better at leadoff, and it’s obvious. He hits like crap farther down in the lineup, and that’s obvious too.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 31, 2009 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Opinions are like elbows..
everyone has a couple.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
They're also like assholes. Everyone has one and they usually stink.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Jun 1, 2009 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions
So your fine with just making the playoffs? I'm not.
But the fact Soriano hits leadoff has nothing to do with not winning in October.
These are not cherry picked stats, when Sori doesn’t hit the team loses. We will face tougher pitchers in the playoffs with better focus and they will not make the same mistakes that #4 or #5 pitchers will make during the year. IF you are willing to accept a 234 OBP or even less based on better pitching scenario, then we are at odds. I believe that you need to scratch across whatever runs you can in the palyoffs and with that low of an OBP as a leadoff man in front of your RBI men then you are decreasing your odds for success.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Soriano goes 0-5.
Cubs beat the Dodgers 7-0.
o.0
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 30, 2009 6:30 PM CDT up reply actions
see above, not worth a double post.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Here's the thing
The problem with Soriano is that his game is not ideal for any spot in the order. I hate him at leadoff and I would hate him in RBI spots.
I think eventually Soriano will be traded with the Cubs eating a lot of his contract. This was one of Hendry’s worst signings, because of years and money. Another typical Soriano performance at 1 or 2 more playoffs (if the Cubs can get there) and the heat will begin to rise.
Soriano is useful, but he is not even a great player. When your team’s best paid player is the one you least want at the plate with the game on the line or in important spots then you’ve got a problem. Usually you pay a premium for guys who excell in those situations. We paid a premium for a guy who does the exact opposite.
So, where to put him? Hopefully on another team. Until then, he’s probably best at leadoff.
Can't get on the dump Sori bandwagon
IF you are arguing that he doesn’t live up to 18M a year then you might have something there. I think we have a few players that don’t exactly live up to their contracts even though there are useful players.
But he is on our team, and don’t think there is any chance of him getting moved anytime soon.
The .527 OPS when he is cold is the reason that he isn’t best at leadoff.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
are you kidding
since he came to the team, we’ve won the division twice and won 97 games last year. He is a HUGE part of that. He’s been an all star, what, eight years in a row?
Give me a break.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 30, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
When Soriano hits leadoff the game starts with...
A K or a HR
Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!
lately
he’s been walking and getting singles and doubles. He’s been having lots of good at bats. Not for the past four games or so, but still.
His May was not as good as his April. Hopefully, June is when they all put it together.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 30, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
But normally it is the HR or K scenario to start the game
Once Soriano gets to 2 strikes just about every pitcher in the league knows what to do. Which is sad that after all these years in the league he still can’t adjust.
Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!
well
I’m going to continue to disagree. He’s one of the people who has put this team on top of the division two years in a row.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 30, 2009 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions
i disagree
since that would mean approx 140 of his ABs leading off games are K or HR.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
Just for clarification for leadoff of game numbers.
2008 104PAs 5HR 23KOs .308OBP .475SLG .782OPS
2009 43PAs 4HRs 8KOs .372OBP .659SLG 1.031OPS
Now you guys can talk with some facts on the table.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
and you backed me up nicely
thanks.
5 HR + 23 K is not normality or majority of 104
4 HR + 8 K is not normality or majority of 43
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
No problem
You have to at least have facts to argue a position. :)
Cub Style was exaggerating a little.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
I didnt think
I needed to really post the numebrs, since we know that he doesnt do those two the majority as insinuated above, but i appreciate your support.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
fonz
forget it.soriano has it in his head he cant hit out of the leadoff spot.
That's why we need longer than 2 games to try him out somewhere else.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
$136 million for a guess hitting hack...
….who disappears for long stretches and does NOTHING in the playoffs.
Awww, come on guys, it's so simple maybe you need a refresher course. It's all ball bearings ...
I love reruns.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on May 31, 2009 10:24 PM CDT up reply actions
When you can put compelling argument together on the value of Alfonso Soriano commensurate with his $136 million pricetag then I'll listen
While you’re at it maybe you can explain to the audience given all your baseball acumen (snicker) why it is he absolutely MUST be the leadoff man. And what happens to his offensive game for ridicullously long stretches and also during the playoffs when “franchise players” (i.e., those being paid 136 friggin million dollars) are generally expected to stand and deliver.
Awww, come on guys, it's so simple maybe you need a refresher course. It's all ball bearings ...
No baseball player is "worth" the value of the ridiculously high salaries they make.
No PERSON is worth that much. The money has become, essentially, irrelevant. It’s the free market, and he gets what the market will give him. It’s not your money. I know, you’re jealous. Get over it.
Aramis Ramirez didn’t deliver during the playoffs. Derrek Lee didn’t. Mark DeRosa. Your golden boy, Rich Harden, your favorite sparkplug, Ryan Theriot.
Why he should stay at lead-off has been documented over and over again. I’m not going to illustrate facts to you when I know you won’t listen anyway.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on Jun 1, 2009 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Here is my take on this
Soriano has a career 5.8 BB% (league average is around 10%) and a .328 OBP. He also has a career .517 slugging and a .236 ISO.
So if Soriano’s main skill is getting extra base hits wouldn’t you want more runners on base when he gets those extra base hits? Conversely, if Soriano’s main detriment is that he doesn’t get on base at a high clip, you wouldn’t want him hitting in a spot that is followed by your best hitters.
If you trust those two assumptions than the best spot for Soriano is probably 5th. That spot comes up with a lot of guys on base because the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place hitters are generally your best hitters and are good at getting on base. Therefore, Soriano’s power would be maximized. Also, because the 6th and 7th hitters generally aren’t very good, OBP isn’t as important in that spot because there is less of a chance of those guys driving you in when you do get on base.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
this is why the numbers don't tell the whole story.
Because while it would appear that 5th is the best place for Sori, it’s clearly not, based on his performance batting not leadoff.
"I don’t really play baseball, I feel it." -- Milton Bradley
by drewishdrewid on Jun 3, 2009 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions
There is no reason why Soriano should hit worse down in the order
Just because it has happened in the past doesn’t mean it will continue to.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
Is that the definition of reverse insanity?
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Jun 3, 2009 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions
And we should give it more than 2 games when we do move him.
And it’s a matter of when (this year, next…)
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
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