Chris Carpenter should have been in the Cubs' Top Ten Prospects?

Behind Baseball Prospectus subscriber wall, Kevin Goldstein updates on Carpenter:
"Coming out of Kent State in last year's draft, Carpenter had the power frame and power stuff to project as a first-round pick, but a checkered injury history that included a Tommy John surgery and a follow up a year later to clean out the joint concerned too many teams and dropped him to the third round. Still, he's been healthy for over two years now, and he's proving to be far too good for the Midwest League, now allowing only four hits over 17 scoreless innings in his last three starts. I didn't put him in my Cubs Top 11 Prospect list entering the year, and that was a mistake."

6 months ago DGU 8 comments 0 recs |

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do we know

if they’re going to bring him up slowly, or if he’s gonna be pushed?

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 5, 2009 11:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Goldstein

is particularly hard on the Cubs system, so his comment is more of an indictment of the system than praise of Carpenter, although he is right about Carpenter. (He might be right about the Cubs system, too.) I’m not sure Carpenter had justified being in the Top 11 at the start of the season, but I agree with him that he certainly should be in the discussion now for one of the Top 11 prospects in the system now. If he’s not 11th, he’s somewhere in the top 15 or so.

by Josh77 on May 5, 2009 11:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

One of the fascinating stories for me over the past two years or so

is how late to the game both KG and BA have been on most of the Cubs players who have come out of the farm and been productive. I’m not saying they haven’t been justified in downplaying the potentials of Fontenot, Theriot, Soto, and Samardzija at the times they downplayed them, but this is beginning to be a lot of people over-achieving what was once expected of them.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 5, 2009 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Prospectus

has always mocked the Cubs Samardzija signing, but mostly out of the huge contract they gave him out of college—they always mock big contracts given to pitchers anyway out of principle. BA has always been higher on Samardzija. In fairness, BP admitted in the last annual that they may end up with egg on their face on the Shark.

As far as Theriot and Fontenot go, the Cubs tried to make Theriot a switch-hitter in the minors with disastrous results. He only started to hit once they told him to go back to hitting right-handed all the time. Now if you weren’t following the Cubs system really closely, you’d have to look at his numbers and how bad he looked switch-hitting and say “no prospect.” Even his upturn after abandoning switch-hitting would have just looked like a fluke. Fontenot was a big prospect for the Orioles and was treated as such, but by the time the Cubs got him in the Sosa trade, he was considered by everyone to be a failed prospect.

But you’re right—sometimes players get better and we’re just so skeptical in the minors that we don’t see the real improvement—especially if you have to follow 30 teams systems and not just one. But it’s hard not to be skeptical when even first round picks have only a 50-50 chance of being decent major leaguers.

by Josh77 on May 5, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah - I agree with what you're saying here.

There were definitely reasons to downplay each of these guys.

But the Cubs’ “unproductive” farm system has provided 3/4 of our up-the-middle starters, all looking like they’re likely to be in the top-15 players at their position in 2009, plus a so-far productive first bat off the bench. On the pitching side, half of our ’pen, and one of our better starters so far this season are all farm products (not counting Zambrano). The farm has also recently bought our closer and Rich Harden.

That’s what I keep in mind when KG keeps mocking the Cubs’ system.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 5, 2009 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Part of the problem

and it’s not just Goldstein, but a lot of minor league experts have it, is that they keep looking for superstars. And admittedly, the Cubs system had not produced a star position player before Soto since the Dallas Green era. But there is value in creating lower-ceiling guys. If anything, Eric Patterson, Sean Gallagher and Josh Donaldson can be spun off for Rich Harden.

by Josh77 on May 5, 2009 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

Fontenot and Theriot were never really considered legitimate prospects. Rather they are both guys who broke into the majors late and who can best be classified as over-achievers who capitalized on opportunity. Fontenot and Theriot were never in the plans of the Cubs until each forced the issue.

Soto was a middling prospect until he had a breakthrough season at age 24 in 2007. Prior to 2007 Soto wasn’t much of a prospect on anybody’s radarscope.

Samardzija is talented, but in my opinion overrated. I’m not really sure I understand what his major league future is. Time will tell I guess.

The window for winning a World Series may have waned.

by BLou on May 5, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think that the point he was trying to make.

Theriot and Fontenot are solid players, regardless of the previous perspective on them. Goldstein has mocked the Cubs system even after the fact of seeing a good amount of players actually becoming average-to-good everyday players and impact pitchers.

So to mock a system that produces talent — more than a lot of other systems then the Cubs system deserves alot more respect than what they actually get.

Tamia Lynn Davis:
Born: August 18, 2008

by Unique on May 5, 2009 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs