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For Your Eyes Only: Clutch Hitting & the Value of What We See

A fascinating mini-story showed up in John Perotto's May 3 "On the Beat" column at Baseball Prospectus (unfortunately, subscription required).  Perotto asks if there is a scapegoat for the Mets' disappointing start to the season.  Skipper Jerry Manuel believes the Mets are lacking in clutch hitting.  He says

When we get in a position where we’re trailing late in games, it almost seems like it’s an insurmountable lead.  Our anxiety takes over at that time.

Star-divide

Now, presumably, of all people, Jerry Manuel is watching the Mets closer than anyone.  He should be watching their games live with his discriminating eye.  He should be watching tape, reviewing games with focused precision. 

And he should know what he's looking at.  Jerry Manuel played over 1300 games of pro ball, including over a 100 games of major league baseball.  He played in the post-season.  [Quick trivia - without looking it up, does anyone remember who the Cubs traded to get Jerry Manuel?]  He's managed 6 full seasons, with the 2000 AL manager of the year award to his credit.  He's into his second season as manager of the Mets.

He should know what he's talking about when he makes observations about the Mets. But he's flat wrong about the Mets' clutch hitting.  John Perotto looks up the stats: 

According to baseball-reference.com, in high-leverage at-bats, Mets hitters have an OPS+ of 100, exactly average, while generating slash stats of .272/.373/.401.

So, I have two questions.  First, if Jerry Manuel's eyes are lying to him about what's happening on the field, how much should we discount the value of what the common fan sees happening?

This is different than talking about professional scouting data on specific hitters and pitchers.  I'm talking about the conclusions we draw on much broader topics.

The second question is the poll.

Poll
Do you believe in clutch hitting as an attribute some hitters possess and others do not?
Yes, and you can prove it statistically.
13 votes
Yes, and it is precisely the kind of thing that can't be proved statistically.
18 votes
Not generally, but I think it may be a rare gift.
16 votes
Not at all; it's been proven statistically to be a myth.
8 votes
Other (please elaborate below)
4 votes

59 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Yes, clutch hitting exists.

I don’t know if it can or cannot be proven statistically, and frankly I don’t care.

Thinking logically, it’s pretty easy to conclude that some players perform better under pressure, just as some cripple under pressure. Realizing that every human being has a psyche, it’s plain to me that some players stress in big spots and therefore don’t perform as well when they’re thinking too much. And others genuinely enjoy being “the man” in big spots and as a result tend to perform better.

by kanderber on May 5, 2009 12:28 PM CDT reply actions  

Agreed.

I’m also not sure it can be proven and I also do not care. I don’t know the stats, nor do I want to look them up, all I know is if the game is on the line and one at bat can mean W or L I want a guy like Aramis up. I felt the same way about Edmonds as well. I’m sure someone can come out with stats that make them look horrible in “clutch” situations, but Aramis is the guy I would want at all times.

by jbertram on May 5, 2009 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Why don't you care about the stats (on this particular issue)?

For the record, baseball-reference.com has a heading under split stats for things they might think could count as clutch hitting:
2 Outs, RISP
Late & Close
Within 1 Run
W/in 2 Runs
W/in 3 Runs
W/in 4 Runs
Would you argue those stats aren’t relevant to how you define “clutch hitting”?

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 5, 2009 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oh, and

for 2008, Aramis looks very clutch according to their stats.

His overall OPS in 2008 was .898, but in games that were late and close, he hit 1.426. In tie games, he hit .970. Within 1 R, he hit .949.

He also upped his OBP .040 pts when there were 2 outs and RISP, although his SLG was down from overall season.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 5, 2009 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

I guess...

I shouldn’t say I don’t care, and I do think they are relevant…I guess what I meant to say is that I believe it exists regardless of stats. They certainly help the case of there being examples of clutch hitters.

by jbertram on May 5, 2009 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

let me just say from personal experience from other sports as well as HS baseball

clutch performance exists—-period. In golf when the pressure is on to succeed or perform most players change emotionally—-most for the worst, they get tense, and therefore cannot execute—-I learned to actually find ways to calm myself, reduce my focus—-tunnel vision so to speak, deep breathing and almost walking hypnosis (so to speak as my brother used to say, I was oblivious to even an approaching tornado when the game was on the line), in your mind you kept positive key visions of what you wanted to do.

In basketball I came to know a few genuine superstars in their college days and both told me they slowed the game down in their minds, while others seemed to flail they remained as quick on their feet but in their minds things slowed, they found that rhythm or zone.

In HS baseball there were players who would do the same near the end of the game, they could predict how they were being pitched and what they needed to do to drive home a game winner. In the field there were always players who wanted the ball hit to them and those who dreaded the opportunity.

Clutch exists——

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on May 5, 2009 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Trying to pin this down...

At first you seem to suggest that clutch hitting is not-choking, the ability to steel your nerves.

Then, you hint that in baseball, some hitters might have learned enough about how they are being pitches to do better later in the game, regardless of the score or situation.

What exactly do you think clutch hitting is?

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 5, 2009 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

One other question -

you referenced HS baseball. One thing I wondered is if there was such a thing as clutchness, if performing at the major league level practically required nearly all the athletes who succeed at the ML level to exercise that ability, just to be able to hit in front of that many people against other competitors that good.

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 5, 2009 7:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

In major league baseball

There has been shown to be almost zero year-to-year correlation of players being clutch.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 5, 2009 9:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

what

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 6, 2009 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Predictable response.

I’m saying that you don’t need to get your stat book out for everything. Sometimes common sense tells you all you need to know. That common sense being, some people react differently in stressful situations — whether that’s baseball players, police officers, a person about to get bit by a dog, etc.

by kanderber on May 6, 2009 8:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

But common sense is subjective

you may think that a certain player is clutch, because you have seen a couple of big at bats in which he got a hit, but if his clutch stats (which actually measure his success rate in clutch situations) says that he isn’t, you should believe that latter.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 6, 2009 8:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

Okay, you're right.

Stats are the end all, be all. Got it. Actually closing the laptop and watching the game is meaningless, as we can just go to BP and find out all we need to know about the game.

by kanderber on May 7, 2009 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

that's not

what he’s saying.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 7, 2009 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

as much as the rest of the team.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 6, 2009 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

That would seem to be more of an argument of choking than clutchness...

As in, people can fold under the pressure and thus do worse in pressure situations. That’s an idea which I certainly believe.

But players performing better in the clutch? That would suggest that they aren’t playing at their best most of the time. If that’s the case, then I’d argue that “clutch” players are really just lazy players who don’t focus all of the time.

by SouthernCub on May 5, 2009 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wait...

So players can perform worse in certain situations but not better? That’s some interesting logic.

by kanderber on May 5, 2009 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Read better - I didn't say it couldn't happen...

I didn’t say players couldn’t play better under pressure. I simply asked if you would agree that such performance should be an indictment of their play in non-pressure situations? In other words, we villify chokers. Shouldn’t we villify “clutch” players for not trying harder?

by SouthernCub on May 5, 2009 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

No, I don't think so.

It’s not about trying harder. Not to sound all supernatural, but to me it’s about a player rising to another level when the situation demands it. I don’t think it’s a matter of his physical effort — to me, it’s more mental.

by kanderber on May 5, 2009 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

trying harder can be physical or mental...

as in, I’d argue that “clutchness” is more representative of a

Moving to the other issue, shouldn’t this be something that can be proven with stats? If it exists and players have an innate ability, that should show up in stats, right? I mean, Aramis Ramirez is a better hitter than Aaron Miles. The stats back that up. Similarly, if there is some supernatural ability allowing a player to rise above himself in pressure situations, this should show up in the stats.

I’m not saying that clutchness doesn’t exist. But if it does exist, I can’t accept the idea that stats don’t support it. If it’s there, logic dictates that the stats should back it up.

Also, I suspect that people do a pretty poor job of accurately assessing what they believe to be clutch. In other words, while it might exist, I think people are more likely to let their eyes fool them into believing a player is clutch (or not clutch) based on small sample sizes of personal recollection.

by SouthernCub on May 5, 2009 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

Uggh, my editing skills suck...

first paragraph, try #2:

as in, I’d argue that “clutchness” is more representative of a player not focusing (i.e., not trying hard enough mentally) in non-pressure situations.

But obviously, that’s getting into territory that can’t be proven (can’t get inside people’s heads). hence I moved on to paragraph 2.

by SouthernCub on May 5, 2009 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

What you are talking about though

Is supernatural BS. A player who could do that should do it ALL the time then. 1st inning please, let’s not even get to those ‘clutch situations’.

Rather a player who is put in a pressure situation doesn’t suck. They are clutch.

by FanBall on May 6, 2009 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

CLutch hitting is a myth

anyone can come thru based on odds at any given time. playing under pressure in an important moment is being headstrong and consistant, not clutch.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 5, 2009 12:32 PM CDT reply actions  

I find the whole premise clutch hitting rediculous

Basically, people define it as elevating you’re game when it matters most. So that would mean that you have to be better in high leverage situations that you are normally. Are you starting to see how wrong that is? Players try to do their best all of the time; they don’t save their best for when it matters most.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 5, 2009 2:13 PM CDT reply actions  

I think that's one of the questions here: how do people define clutch hitting?

Is it just not-choking? Do David Ortiz and Aramis Ramirez have reputations as clutch hitters just because they’ve generally been good hitters and likely to hit with men on base, given the lineups around them?

Or is it, as you and SouthernCub are saying, a type where people step up their game, “when it really counts”? I can see a type of player who is less focused most of the time, but able to really bear down in important situations. But, then, as you and S.Cub suggest, why is that something to praise that player for? Given the $ they’re being paid, shouldn’t they learn to focus every AB?

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 5, 2009 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

Good points.

Regardless of what everyone thinks…it’s definitely an intersting topic.

by jbertram on May 5, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

Adrenaline

I think the heat of a game changing situation provides some players with some of those magic chemicals that help you focus more and work harder. Some people THRIVE on that.

Not me… but others. I prefer a walk in the park.

Jackie likes the smell of cut grass, he used to play ball on Saturdays, Playin in the sun...

by PacificCub on May 5, 2009 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

Clutch hitting does exist

But a lot of players are over exaggerated clutch hitters.

"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti

by wrigleyrocker12 on May 5, 2009 3:54 PM CDT reply actions  

What about pitchers?

One would think that in clutch situations, pitchers would be just as likely to step up their game as hitters. I would think this effect should be even more pronounced in statistics than clutch hitting.

You can see some evidence of this by looking at closers in baseball. Some pitchers just have that closer’s mentality while others do not and cannot find success in a closing role. You also have closers that seem to struggle when brought into non-save situations. This evidence is more anecdotal, but I would think that the effect does exist and can be proven statistically.

However, I think the significance of being clutch is way overblown. The best clutch hitters tend to be the best hitters, period, in the strict sense of production. If you’re looking for players who perform better in clutch situations than they do regularly, the lists you come up with statistically will baffle you – few superstars and mostly mediocre hitters. Statistical studies have shown it to be either completely meaningless or at most, a few percent effect on ability. If you’re interested in the statistical side of clutch, check out this (and the linked articles within):
http://spiff.rit.edu/richmond/baseball/wpa/wpa_2007/no_clutch.html

by smoldering on May 5, 2009 6:33 PM CDT reply actions  

if you believe there is clutch hitting

what about clutch pitching, or clutch fielding?

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 5, 2009 7:00 PM CDT reply actions  

Right

Maybe all you have to do to be considered a “clutch hitter” is to maintain your level of play while the pitcher chokes under the pressure?

by madcow256 on May 5, 2009 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

it is as much luck as clutch

since the luck allows you to be in that position to do so. can you be “clutch” and never once hit in the 9th inning? can you be clutch and make a diving grab when its all on the line?

being “clutch” is a myth IMO

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 5, 2009 8:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

You can choke in the clutch in the field too.

Witness Alex Gonzalex, game 6 2003, or Mark DeRosa, game 2 last year.

Great thread.

by reedjohnson on May 5, 2009 9:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

Or Aramis & Soriano

in the entire 2007 & 2008 playoffs.

by FanBall on May 6, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

There was a book

Published by the Baseball Prospectus people that used stats to prove David Ortiz wasn’t a clutch hitter, and proved a lot of other interesting things. I think it was called “Baseball Between the Numbers.”

"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti

by wrigleyrocker12 on May 5, 2009 7:21 PM CDT reply actions  

Clutch hitting is another form of kryptonite for the sabermagicians

But rest assured it exists. Just watch late in close ballgame the impact of clutch hitters. Like for example when Aramis Ramirez comes up to bat in a game situation. Best clutch hitter on the Cubs in recent years has been Ramirez. And by a wide margin. But alas, the sabermagicians will poke holes in the theory because that is what their exposure to the game via near exclusively the computer screen results in.

The window for winning a World Series may have waned.

by BLou on May 6, 2009 8:53 AM CDT reply actions  

You would agree that the playoffs are the most 'clutch' part of season?

Please tell me what Aramis’ playoff stats in 2007 & 2008 were. I’m pretty sure he doesn’t even have an RBI.

During the regular season he has saved us multiple times in the 9th inning but when we REALLY REALLY need him, he hasn’t done squat.

by FanBall on May 6, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

without all those 9th inning wins

we don’t GET to the post.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 6, 2009 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

You aren't getting the point

I’m not saying that Aramis is bad but if clutch does exist and Aramis is in fact ‘clutch’, why can’t he be clutch for the playoffs?

Please separate yourself from any other argument than clutch. I’m not suggesting we trade Aramis or bench him in the playoffs. I’m just talking about clutch.

by FanBall on May 6, 2009 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

well

I think that clutch players can be not clutch. :D

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 6, 2009 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Now here's the funny thing.

BLou says it’s the guys watching on computers who don’t get clutch hitting. And yet, here’s Jerry Manuel, watching, not from a computer, but from the dugout, with lots of experience, and he saw it wrong.

Or maybe, you’re arguing that even though the stats say they are average, that the stats are wrong and Manuel is right. In which case, how much baseball experience do you need to be able to make the call on clutch hitting? Does Manuel’s trump Johan Santana’s (who didn’t think the clutch hitting was a proble), or does Johan get the trump, since he’s played better at a higher level?

Derrek Lee is good.

by DGU on May 6, 2009 8:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

so-called "clutch hitting" is a myth.

This is not to say that clutch plays do not happen, do not confuse the two.

To be “clutch” would mean that the player has a special ability to perform above his true talent level in high-pressure situations. This is an illusion.

The problem with trying to rate clutch hitting:
1. How does a player have a skill set that that he ia a .250 hitter in “non clutch” situations magically becomes a .300 hitter when the game is on the line?
2. What causes the above to happen?

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 6, 2009 1:44 PM CDT reply actions  

it has to do with

how they handle pressure. Mark DeRosa talked about during 2008, how the noise at the stadium was so loud and intense, he had to raise his glove to his face and SCREAM into it to relieve the pressure.

It’s making sure that when the pressure ratchets up, you handle it the same way you handle anything, as opposed to getting more tense and more tight and pressing.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 6, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

you handle it the same way you handle anything

“being clutch” suggests that you can go above and beyond your averages under “clutch situations”

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 6, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

but that's not what happens

lots of people get tighter and stressed when they’re under pressure. Good players — and I include Rami in this — DON’T get stressed under pressure, and thus are able to continue to perform. It’s not a matter of going up, it’s a matter of not going down.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 6, 2009 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

what about those who are a 250 hitter

and are not tense or stressed in that same position, but strike out 3 out of 4 times, and gets a single that fourth time? would that be clutch since he was not tense or stressed, he just happens to be a lesser hitter stat wise

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 6, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't know

I don’t think it’s something measurable.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 6, 2009 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

I too do not believe it can be measured

it is more myth and an illusion.

part of being clutch would have to include being in position to produce at that time. You cannot control when you bat in an inning (i.e. if you do not bat in the 8th or 9th how can you be considered clutch or not)

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 6, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

I agree

on the other hand, remember when Riot was leading off two weeks ago? The number of times he came up in critical game situations where runs would have scored with a hit was… remarkable. Four or five times.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 6, 2009 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

Clutch

is more opinion than fact

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 6, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure I agree with that

but I’m not going to try to argue with it, because I think it’s too subjective.

But, for example — how to you measure Z’s intensity? I don’t know. But I know it’s part of what makes him the great player he is.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on May 6, 2009 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

+1

kind of like how do you measure the level of scrappy a player has

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 6, 2009 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

You may not be able to measure Z's intesity

but if it truly has an impact, than it will show up in his performance.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 6, 2009 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not far off on your opinion in general (I'm a sabermetrics guy)

but I’m not sure I agree with you on the notion that all meaningful things are measureable (if that’s a fair description of what you’re saying).

Kind of goes to the heart of the age old debate in all social sciences about the tension between qualitative vs. quantitative study, though it’s probably not worth going into the whole debate here.

But as a small example, I doubt it’s true to say that all causal factors in an event (such as an at-bat) are meaningfully translated into quantifiable after-effects that we perceive. In theory, maybe we should be able to somehow quantify everything, but that doesn’t mean we do.

Take a pitcher like Nolan Ryan, who purportedly had a large intimidating effect on batters because of 1)his ability to throw very hard, 2)his lack of control, and 3)his penchant for hitting a batter for any number of reasons.

Now, let’s suppose that the threat of bodily harm might impact a players approach at the plate (being it stepping out, opening your stance, moving off the plate, what have you). And let’s suppose that those adjustments can be demonstrated (ie perceived) to inhibit the production of hitters on average.

We have quantified statistics for Nolan Ryans career, indicating all sorts of things. But at least to my knowledge, we don’t have any way to measure the degree of impact that his “intimidation” had in shaping his career statistics, as apart from the impact that his physical delivery (velocity, movement, location, etc.) had in creating them.

In this scenario, we know that intimidation played a part of creating the quantitative result that we measure, but we don’t have any way of measuring its level because of the complexity of the relationship.

by CubsWin!Oregon on May 6, 2009 7:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

how many noogies did he give Ventura

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 6, 2009 8:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

I understand that

I completely agree that they are other factors in performance besides just a players peripheral stats. However, the bottom line is that they all affect the same goal. If Z is 3.60 ERA guy (which is the only thing that we care about) it’s a combination of his peripheral stats (walks, hits, homers, strikeouts) and his “intensity” or any other intangibles.

A pet peeve of mine, is someone saying that a player is better than his actual production because he has intangibles.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 6, 2009 8:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

Agreed about intangibles.

It is annoying…especially because so much of sports journalism is based off of such idiocy.

I kind of understand it for the average fan though. We all have reasons why we like some players more than others (they have a better work-ethic, are scrappy, aren’t named Fernando Vina, etc.). And we all feel like we have to justify it more than just “I really like his goatee.” As you said, the trouble is just when we start trying to use those reasons to justify why a player is better on a peformance metric.

It makes the game more interesting for us too I suppose. If we all just liked guys because they performed the best, what fun would that be? :)

by CubsWin!Oregon on May 6, 2009 11:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oh sure

My favorite non-Pujols player is Yadier Molina (his pickoffs are a thing of beauty); however, when he was hitting .215 in 06, I knew he was having a shit year and was hurting the team. Although he has since turned it around and is now an above average hitter.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 6, 2009 11:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

If this power he has shown this year is for real

Than he might be one of the best 10 players in the NL, when you consider defense.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 7, 2009 11:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's an absolutely ridiculous statement.

Yadier Molina one of the top 10 players in the NL? Please.

by kanderber on May 9, 2009 7:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sigh...

This year, Yadi is putting up a .323/.390/.484 line, that is good for .382 wOBA which makes him about as good of a hitter as Aramis Ramirez was last year. However, when you consider the fact that the average catcher hits much worse than the average third baseman, his hitting becomes a lot more valuable. Add in excellent defense, and he would certainly be one of the best 10 players in the NL if he could keep up this hitting pace.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 9, 2009 8:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

Now you're talking about value...

Which is different from your original statement that he’s one of the 10 “best.”

He’s not even top 30 in OPS… and throwing out 6 baserunners doesn’t move him up anywhere near the top 10. So yes, saying he’s one of the “ten best” in the league is absurd.

by kanderber on May 10, 2009 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions  

It's been asked before

But what defines clutch? It would be nice if everyone could state their opinion on the matter.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 6, 2009 3:56 PM CDT reply actions  

here is what i defined it as above

not saying i am right or not

To be "clutch" would mean that the player has a special ability to perform above his true talent level in high-pressure situations.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 6, 2009 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

agree to a certain extent

would change “true talent level” to “current performance indicators” meaning if a guys hits .325 in high-pressure situations and is a .265 hitter, then he is “clutch.” Not sure true talent level matters.

by socalbob on May 6, 2009 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

what is a high pressure situation

and does it matter 325 is against a bunch of Cotts’ where the 265 BA is against the Haren’s of the league. It is impossible to truly say someone is clutch beacuse each stat would have to be made up of every minor variable to decide what the “median” should have been in that situation

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 6, 2009 6:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

you tell me what is a high-pressure situation

and I’ll agree with you. I’m not debating what constitutes a high-pressure situation. I think 2 outs with a runner on 2B in a 0-0 game versus Santana is equal of a high pressure situation as facing a closer in the 9th inning with the winning run on base.

I was simplifying the argument that if a player exceeds his “norm” in the “HPS” then he is clutch. I just disagree with talent-level as the base. Or maybe I am not following what you mean by talent-level.

by socalbob on May 6, 2009 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

if the hitter has a lifetime BA against Santana of .700

is it clutch or is it what he does always against him?

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 6, 2009 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

small sample size

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 6, 2009 8:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

every clutch AB would be one also

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 6, 2009 9:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

going 2-3

against Santana when losing 9-2 when he is center-cutting pitches is not “clutch” per se. I was speaking to a specific leveraged situation.

I was speaking to a player who exceeds his norms in the “clutch” situations is “clutch”—not based on a perceived talent-level.

I guess I am now confused as to your position on this matter. I thought we were in agreement with a little “semantics” in play, but after reading your replies, I am not so sure. Thanks for the diologue.

by socalbob on May 7, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions  

I believe clutch is a myth and illusion

there are so many variables, then the “luck factor” (hitting a bad pitch that a pitcher hung, etc).

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 7, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well that kind of clutch has been proven to be a myth

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 6, 2009 8:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

clutch in general is a myth

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 7, 2009 8:47 AM CDT up reply actions  

how can a player who fails 7 out of 10 times be called clutch?

even the greatest leave RISP in the 9th often.

baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out

by Cubbie-Tim on May 7, 2009 11:05 AM CDT reply actions  

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