This is not an exhaustive list, but consider:
Dempster's big $
- loss of DeRosa
+ continued faith in DLee
Pretty easy to analyze: Hendry failed. The team is significantly worse than it was last year. If DLee can recover and if ARam is not out for 2 months + and if Dempster and Harden can pitch better and if Zambrano is better than a 3rd starter and if Bradley hits .330 over the next 100 games... well... if if if.