Nature vs. Nurture Part Deux: The Value Of Stats And Scouting In Baseball, Revisited
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 8:38 AM CDT
in News
378 comments
A little more than a year ago, I wrote this post discussing the merits of statistical analysis and the merits of "other" analysis of baseball players; both have value, and the point of writing it was to ask for neither "side" to be as strident as they sometimes had become in saying "well, Player A is without question more valuable than Player B because this statistic is better and you cannot contradict me", or "I like so-and-so's scrappiness and so he's great and nothing else matters!"
Reaction to that post, if you check through the comments, was thoughtful and positive and I appreciated it. I raise this again now because recently, some baseball statistical analysts including Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus hosted "Sabermetrics Night at the Cell", a presentation of statistical methodology held in front of about 100 people in the conference center at the south side ballpark.
One thing Lindsey Willhite's article in the Daily Herald, linked above, points out is that the BP crew now understands that statistics don't necessarily tell the whole story:
Three years ago, BP hired Kevin Goldstein (and his Rolodex filled with scouts' numbers) away from Baseball America to provide the scouting perspective that they'd derided for so long.
"The more you learn, the more you realize what you don't know," Jazayerli said. "When we started, we thought statistical analysis was maybe not the only way, but was certainly the dominant way to be successful in running a baseball team.
"Just like 'Moneyball' isn't about walks, it's about the process, I think that's what Baseball Prospectus is about. We're trying to gain knowledge wherever it comes from. If that means admitting you're wrong sometimes, then so be it."
While I do very little statistical analysis on this site, anyone who thinks I don't understand advanced metrics is simply wrong. All I've ever said is that those shouldn't be the be-all and end-all of analysis of baseball players. There was a lot of heated discussion on this site last winter over the merits of the Cubs signing either Milton Bradley or Adam Dunn (as most of you know, I favored Dunn). It was said by some that 100 games worth of Bradley would be worth more than a full season of Dunn.
Going strictly by the numbers, that may very well be true. We have, however, seen some of the same troubles Milton Bradley had in several of his other major league stops come to pass here in Chicago as well -- a minor dustup with an umpire that dragged on forever before ending in a one-game suspension; injuries that kept him out of the lineup for two weeks without a DL stint, forcing the team to play a man short for that time and having him at less than full strength for much of the year; and one really, really bad day in the field and on the basepaths (granted, none of the misplays last Friday actually likely cost the Cubs anything). I don't think anyone can seriously argue that at this point in the 2009 season, the Cubs wouldn't have been better off with Dunn, who is among the league leaders in walks, runs, HR, RBI and OPS and who has not missed a game. Bradley's problem may be -- and note, I say "may" -- that he's trying too hard to live up to expectations and the large contract he signed. In this sense, his aggressiveness and passion for the game may be working against him.
And that's what I mean when I say, as I have often written here, "there are things about winning baseball games that you cannot measure on a stat sheet." There are things I have learned from various sources over the years about a number of Cubs players that I cannot and will not post on this site, things that would clearly affect their abilities to play the game at the highest level, and things that might have wound up getting them removed from the club when otherwise people would scratch their heads saying, "Why'd they dump him?" or "Why are they not dumping him?" There are factors that we DO know about -- example: the illness of Ryan Dempster's newborn -- that clearly have an influence on a player's performance, because they can take the focus off playing baseball.
All I have ever asked here is for people who are more statistically-oriented than I am to not say things like, "This player IS better than this player because of these numbers" -- you can only predict possible future performance from numbers, not make set-in-stone statements like that. Or "This player is bad at baseball." Not one major league player is "bad" at baseball; they wouldn't have gotten to the major leagues if they were "bad". Their performance can be poor and (cough Aaron Miles cough) we see that on a daily basis these days. At the same time, I pledge to you that I'll listen to you if you want to make a statistically-oriented argument in favor of, or against, a certain player, if you won't be dogmatic about it.
Mainly, I just wanted to provide a topic for discussion while we wait for tonight's game... these 48-hour gaps between games seem a lot longer than that, don't they? Fire away (but please, be nice to each other!).
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I think I have a pretty mixed bag approach to this stuff
I really like stats, and I think they are very useful. There are times though where they can be used too much in spite of there being a mountain of “watching the game” evidence.
I think Fukudome last season pretty much sums this up. Statistically speaking perhaps he wasn’t as awful overall as a lot of us remember, but watching those games the last two months of the season there isn’t a person who would think Dome was productive.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 8:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Bingo!
You have nailed it, Al. The so-called “intangibles”, etc. The numbers are a means but not the final story. Athletes are still human and how they mesh with one another in a team setting, etc. will also add to the mix.
How many times have we seen a can’t miss prospect miss? Or vice-versa? That’s why they play the games lol
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
by BigJohnAZ on Jun 16, 2009 8:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I like sabermetrics because they help you
quantify a lot of the impressions you get from watching a player.
Being able to put a number/meaning on something you thought you saw is really cool, but that doesn’t mean it tells the "whole story’
There is no infinity button for failing in sports. At some point, things turn. They always do. - Bill Simmons
by Allie on Jun 16, 2009 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Off the topic...
but I think we can all agree that Mondays are bad enough without the Cubs taking 4 straight off.
Free Ronny Cedeno
by Kansas25 on Jun 16, 2009 8:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Next Monday is no longer an off day.
They’ll be playing a makeup game in Atlanta from the June 4 rainout.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by tony412 on Jun 16, 2009 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No doubt there's more to it than stats
I personally can think of a million scenarios. Neal Cotts, poor guy was horrible and I think he knew it. Imagine him going out to the mound praying he can get thru the inning. Bobby Scales, having spent so many years in the minors, just hoping to stick around. Demp and DLee with their daugthers. Dome, moving to a new country and a new way of life. They’re all human, and many people think their contract, or money, is supposed to help these guys ignore everything else that is happening in their lives because now they owe us. That’s just not realistic.
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by tony412 on Jun 16, 2009 9:00 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Somewhat off-topic, but
I moved to this country at the tender age of 20 to go to college in Minnesota. I missed the old country like crazy, but I adapted and excelled. I finished my four-year education in two+summers and graduated with honors. I would like to think that I’m a bit more frail than a professional baseball player. But Idunno…
Am I to ignore how much I hate my boss and my job? Why, yes. While I feel as if my soul dies a little bit every day I spend here, I am also aware he/they are paying me for my expertise and time, which involves a certain amount of crap-eating. There are no jobs out there right now, so I need to learn to tolerate the taste of crap.
Does Milton Bradley hate Lou Piniella and/or the Cubs? Who knows. But his contract is signed and he’s expected to provide his expertise/time. I don’t think there is another job for him out there right now, so he better learn to tolerate the taste of crap.
The Cubs don’t owe us. If anything, they’re in debt to their employer. It is realistic for their employer to demand a bit more/better production from its employees.
One day I hope to come up with something worthy of this space.
by chilango2 on Jun 16, 2009 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't disagree with you
but that’s not what we’re arguing here. I too feel I have to do the best possible job, for my employer, for my family and for myself. But that’s not to say there aren’t days when regardless of all of this, I feel like crap and don’t feel like I’m giving my best. There are times when my mind is just somewhere else and no matter how much I love my job, or my income or anything else, it’s not realistic to expect anyone to have an on/off switch for this type of stuff. That’s all.
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by tony412 on Jun 16, 2009 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We should both go work for Inetrode.
The people to cake ratio is better.
Agreed on the Employer/Employee thing.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Jun 16, 2009 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
numbers
From the Talking Heads, “Crosseyed & Painless”
Facts are simple and facts are straight
Facts are lazy and facts are late
Facts all come with points of view
Facts dont do what I want them to
Facts just twist the truth around
Facts are living turned inside out
Facts are getting the best of them
Facts are nothing on the face of things
Facts dont stain the furniture
Facts go out and slam the door
Facts are written all over your face
Facts continue to change their shape
Facts are static objects whose value is dependent on perception. Remember, Leon Durham? I’ve never seen a guy hit more home runs in the eighth inning with nobody on base and the Cubs down by 7. Yet he was a two-time all-star.
“Clutch” can’t be defined by sheer numbers.
by milesdavis on Jun 16, 2009 9:07 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
any time I think Clutch isn't real
I think of guys like Geoff Blum in baseball. Robert Horry and Derek Fisher in basketball. Then I know that yes clutch is for real.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adam Vinatieri
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by tony412 on Jun 16, 2009 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I can’t seem to face up to the facts.
by katie casey on Jun 16, 2009 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd suggest "All Blues"....
As the counter-point….
No words…just “clutch”….
The best defense is a good offense.....Lou Pinella...still hasn't managed the Cubs to a post season win. D. Lee still doesn't have a post seasson RBI for Cubs...ditto for Soriano
by kcjones on Jun 16, 2009 10:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stats don't tell the story, but they're a lot easier to work with.
Which is why, in general, I think they’re a lot more germane to the discussion than intangibles.
Gary Sheffield jaking it because he wants to get out of Milwaukee is an intangible with an appreciable effect on the outcome of a game.
The so-called “clubhouse guy”, the glue that holds a team together…well, not so much.
Catchers’ ability to call a good game or their ability to calm down a wild pitcher: both intangibles, and probably worth a win here or there.
When a guy is a “gamer”…uh, what the hell does that even mean?
So I think we can agree there are a multitude of things stats don’t cover. The problem is we can’t really assign a value to them. Is the guy who fires teammates up worth more than the guy who makes teammates laugh? What’s the conversion ratio for scrappy to gamer? Just like some stats (OBP, WHIP, BABIP) are better than others (BA, Wins), some intangibles are more meaningful than others.
Once you introduce intangibles, you throw any ability to compare and contrast out the window. Stats try to turn everything to apples. Intangibles turn every player into a fruit stand.
That’s the point, though, right? That’s why stats are overvalued. But here’s the thing, if you have a bunch of stuff that you can quantify, and a bunch of stuff you can’t, one of those things is going to give you a better ability to attempt to determine the quality of a player. That’s how you end up with the feel-good stories like Josh Hamilton, whose intangibles were, how you say, not so good.
So I guess my point is that while “intangibles” aren’t something you can just flat-out ignore, everyone’s going to value them differently, making it very hard to have a reasoned discussion about the merits of a given player.
by redward on Jun 16, 2009 9:24 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Sure, stats are a useful tool to measure a player's ability...
… and his potential to contribute in various situations.
You can’t say what the “good clubhouse guy” contributes unless you are in the clubhouse. I say that’s important. You may disagree. We can still have reasoned discussions about this issue.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A “good clubhouse guy” may help, but who can say how much? One win? One run? There are very good teams that didn’t get along well at all.
Actually, I wonder if there’s any data on whether people who make the work environment more pleasant increase productivity. That would probably translate relatively well, and would at least provide some kind of quantitative value.
by redward on Jun 16, 2009 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You've missed the point.
The contributions of the good clubhouse guy can’t be quantified in “one run” or “one win”.
The A’s teams of the 1970’s are often cited as a team that hated each other and won. That isn’t exactly true. Their “hate” was actually somewhat focused: many disliked their manager and owner. They channeled that into winning. How? Sorry, that can’t be quantified.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 9:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dave Stewart was on the radio yesterday
talking about the 1990 World Series. While he gave credit to Cincinnati, he also said that the A’s were fighting amongst themselves throughout October. Apparently, Jose Canseco refused to listen to scouting reports, and would not accordingly move in the outfield. Bob Welch, Stewart and Carney Lansford nearly came to blows with Canseco over it – during a World Series, no less.
Now, would a better clubhouse atmosphere have helped the A’s, and maybe brought them another World Series title? Possibly. But you could also make the argument that the A’s don’t make the World Series without Canseco. I think therein lies the dilemma.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 16, 2009 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I also remember...
… the 1980 Phillies stating that their team, a group of veteran personalities who didn’t all like each other, united in their dislike of Dallas Green as their manager.
Green, who was a fine GM for the Cubs, apparently was pretty well hated by his players as a field manager.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the Bob Knight mentality.
In years in which the team had no apparent cohesion, Knight made sure his players united by hating him. And for a long while, it worked.
I think sometimes that was how Lou was too, in his earlier years as a manager.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 16, 2009 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Players ruling the clubhouse?
Was Dusty in charge?
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tony LaRussa.
Though with guys like Carney Lansford and Dave Stewart in the clubhouse, I wouldn’t have worried too much about needing to take care of things – those two could handle most matters in-house.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 16, 2009 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
LaRussa couldn't control somebody
Hmm. He never had that problem anywhere else right?
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Never.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 16, 2009 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well then we can add that to the impressive list
of Jose Canseco being a douche.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I may as well own up
I was going to name the 70s A’s, although I was going to admit that they had the common enemy in Finley.
I’m not trying to say intangibles can’t be a part of the discussion, I’m just saying that you can’t argue them in the same breath as stats.
Personally, I think you need to compare stats first to get a baseline, and then you can start to sort out the other outside factors, so when you say “all things being equal” you can know that all other things are actually equal.
by redward on Jun 16, 2009 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you can discuss the intangibles
I’d agree with this part of your last paragraph:
So I guess my point is that while "intangibles" aren’t something you can just flat-out ignore, everyone’s going to value them differently…
I think the most important part of that statement is that the front office and management be on the same page as to how they value the intangibles. When they are able to strike the right balance between talent and intangibles, I think the results often turn out pretty well.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 16, 2009 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's say you went to the doctor
And the doctor told you, “You need to start eating better. You have a high cholesterol, and statistics have shown that this increases your chances of dying of heart disease.”
What do you do? Do you click your tongue and say, “Sorry doctor, but statistics don’t live my life,” and go get 6 jellies on your way home?
by Wreckard on Jun 16, 2009 9:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That's not really a comparable situation, is it?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure it is.
You’re trying to make a prediction on the future performance of your heart. Basically, you have to decide whether or not to change your lifestyle and habbits.
You have certain things you know – you know certain statistics about yourself – your cholesterol, your weight, your blood pressure. You know what the past performance of similar hearts has been, based on the studies that put you at risk.
However, your heart has certain intangible qualities that will factor into your mortality. Things that are difficult or impossible to measure, such as genetic factors, that will absolutely affect your heart’s future performance.
In other words, the doctor’s prediction is not perfect – he knows that; the statisticians who did the studies know that; on some level, you may even know that. The cholesterol reading does not tell the whole story, to use the cliché many of you love. The statistics that put you at risk will not live your life. There is a strong chance that you can go on eating a stick of butter a day for the rest of your life and die of old age, not heart disease.
Yet I think in this case, most people would listen to their doctor. Why? Because when we make decision like this we use the information we know, not the information we don’t know. (Also we don’t romanticize medicine the way we romanticize baseball, nor would we presume to know more than our doctors the way we do with our general managers and managers.) Even though we know that prediction isn’t perfect, it’s the best one we have, and so maybe that salad isn’t a bad idea for lunch after all.
Statistics represent what we know, nothing more. Anyone who believes otherwise doesn’t understand what they are.
by Wreckard on Jun 16, 2009 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions 5 recs
Here's the problem with your extended metaphor
Doctor’s deal with natural sciences. Baseball stats are a pseudo-scientific version of social science which is a pseudo-science to begin with… all though social scientists will disagree.
Natural sciences deal with certainties… there are laws in natural sciences. The same quantity of the same chemical will have the exact same properties all the time unless something changes. With controls and variables we can reach conclusions which are 100% true… all the time.
Social sciences study people. People are irrational. They act one way one way day, and another way on the next. They do things that are self-destructive (i.e. smoke cigarettes) for reasons that defy logic.
THAT is why your analogy has some merit, but it is limited. Doctor’s predictions are based on the laws and body of knowledge available in the natural sciences. People are not like the natural world, and can’t be measured or predicted as such.
Statistics are not a “representation of what we know.” They are a measurement of what has happened. This may be a distinction without a difference, or it may be important because using the word “know” could lend itself to someone talking with more certainty that they should… which is what I hear a lot of statisticians a sabermagicians doing.
It’s great to measure what has happened. But that does not provide as solid an indicator of what will happen in the future as some would have you believe.
"This is an environment of welcoming, and you should just get the hell outta here." --Michael Scott
by Reddevil on Jun 16, 2009 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Exactly what I was trying to say.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really? EXACTLY?
Why didn’t you just say so, then? ;-)
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
literally.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 16, 2009 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure
medicine is as exact a science as you seem to suggest; for example:
My son has taken a few different kinds of medicine for his ADD as we’ve figured out which one to use.
One worked great, but not for long enough. Another one was supposed for work longer, but didn’t work at all.
The weird part? They’re both the same drug, EXCEPT for the part that makes the time-release work differently.
If medical science were more exact, they wouldn’t have to try so many different drugs to get the right one (which, by the way, we found, and everyone is much happier).
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 16, 2009 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If medicine isn't science then I'm an eleven dollar hooker like Elisabeth Shue in Leaving Las Vegas.
If medical science were more exact, they wouldn’t have to try so many different drugs to get the right one
It’s called the scientific method.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jun 16, 2009 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't say it wasn't science
I said it wasn’t as exact as the OP suggested.
In a year, Max’s meds may not work as well. That’s because people’s body chemistry changes.
I know people who have had cancer, and it’s spontaneously gone into remission. My wife had a condition she was unaware of for over a decade, the doctor couldn’t explain why she hadn’t been in dire pain since 1999.
There’s plenty about medical science we can’t explain.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 16, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I feel like I’m in Kansas arguing creationism and evolution. Oh, wait. I am in Kansas. Crap.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jun 16, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 16, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, it's a very apt metaphor
The science is the reason the doctor knows the cholesterol is likely to lead to heart disease. The statistics are what led to the scientists figuring that out, and also what tell the doctor how long you likely have to live with no change in behavior.
The doctor’s predictions are based in statistics. Just like the sabermagician’s,
by redward on Jun 16, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is more tangential than a reply...
I would argue that the Natural Science are just as guilty of overstating the confidence they should have in their “certainties.” While chemistry by definition deals in elemental studies that easily translate into the isolation of variables, most laws in hard sciences are actually just presuppositions that as yet we haven’t found a counter-example too.
Physics (whether Astro or quantum) and biology are the best examples of this. Most of the understood laws of each are true in so far as we haven’t been able to prove them false; but in almost all cases scientists cannot rationally determine that their laws should/will always apply. Einstein was big on noting that, for example.
In other words, all fields are guilty in varying degrees to the sin of over-confidence that you describe.
While this doesn’t really negate your point, as a social scientist, I feel the need to knock hard scientists off their annoying pedastal. :)
by CubsWin!Oregon on Jun 16, 2009 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, any metaphor breaks down if you look too closely at it
…that said, you’re still wrong.
Baseball is not a random spontaneous event that happens unpredictably and without precedent. It follows laws and rules as well – the rules of baseball, the laws of physics, etc. Like science, if it were possible to account for all of the variables involved, it would be 100% predictable.
But it isn’t, and neither is medical science. When I get diagnosed with cancer, and the doctor tells me that I have a 75% chance of living, he’s saying that because he’s uncertain what my outcome will be, but he knows what has happened in the past in similar situations based on statistical analysis and medical studies.
Likewise, when Aramis Ramirez comes to bat and I say he has a 40% chance of getting a hit, it’s because although I’m uncertain what the outcome will be I know what he has done in the past.
Statistics are a representation of what we know – we know what has happened, not what will happen. We ascribe this uncertainty to chance, but that’s simply a nice way of saying we can’t account for all the variables involved. However, like medical science, this uncertainty doesn’t stop us from using the information we do have to make decisions based on calculated risk.
by Wreckard on Jun 16, 2009 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One last rebuttal
…because as definitively as you state I am wrong… I am not.
Let’s take Aramis Ramirez, Professional Hitter. We have his career stats.
Now let us ask him to go out and bat for an extended period… say one season (just to get rid of that pesky “sample size” argument.) It is likely he will hit something close to his career stats assuming we didn’t ask him to do this at age 85 or something. It is likely because it doesn’t appear there is anything dramatically different impacting what we have seen in the past. Aramis Ramirez can hit. He may be able to hit at 85, but probably not as well as he does at 30. But his performance at 30 could change. Take the next hypo as an example.
Let’s ask Aramis to do the same thing… go out and hit every day for one season, but this time let’s force him to watch some one beat his mother… every day… before he goes out to hit. This might effect his performance, no? Could this not potentially impact his “40% chance of getting a hit?”
This is an extreme example, but my point is this. You can’t take something from nature and effect its performance the same way you can with a person. Hydrogen won’t react differently with oxygen one day because it is “sad” or “depressed” or “having a bad day.” A person can and will on occasion. People have feelings and react to things in irrational ways.
This is pretty elementary. I think you should be able to see the distinction.
If you can’t at least acknowledge there is some validity to what I’m saying then I’ll just wink and say, “you win.”
"This is an environment of welcoming, and you should just get the hell outta here." --Michael Scott
by Reddevil on Jun 16, 2009 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand your argument, but would say two things...
First of all, the original poster was talking about a medical situation which DOES deal with people. Stress in a person’s life as you describe above will affect them… whether it’s their slash stats or their chance of a heart attack. As a medical professional, my job would be a whole lot easier if it was an exact science where this didn’t happen.
Second, Rami’s statistical regression you describe above happens when you introduce a variable to the equation (seeing his mother getting beaten, or substitute that with depression or whatever else you want). Hydrogen will react the same way to Oxygen, but if you introduce a variable to the equation, chemicals will usually react differently as well.
by claypot33 on Jun 16, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again...no.
If we’re going off the now poor bloodied and beaten doctor metaphor, it’s not the hydrogen and oxygen. It’s the fact that the patient didn’t tell the doctor that his family has a history of heart disease unrelated to cholesterol. The patient goes on the prescribed diet and Lipitor and ends up dying of a heart attack anyway.
Those are the “intangibles” in medicine. And it’s the same thing in baseball. Intangibles are something we either don’t yet know of or can’t yet quantify. In 50 years or so, we’ll have splits for batting average with and without beaten mothers. The science just isn’t in yet.
by redward on Jun 16, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What is a more solid indicator of future performance than statistical measures?
What has greater predictive value than mathematical probability?
by Acapulco Taco Pie on Jun 16, 2009 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your point isn't obvious from your question
I assume your point is this: “Stats are the best predictor of performance, and therefore people should believe what they indicate.”
Just because stats measure the past and we use that measurement to try and predict future performance, and stats are obviously helpful, and probably are the most helpful resource we have for predicting future performance… this does not mean they are not without limitations. And the limitations of statistical analysis create problems when people employ them as if they are hard and fast predictors of the future.
They are not flawless, and it is good to keep this in mind. Just because Milton Bradley was productive in Texas does not mean the pressure of this new contract (or any other stimulus the issue-laden ballplayer may be working with) has no impact on his ability to perform.
Stats are helpful when Soriano is batting .230 for the year in mid-June because he has historically hit much higher than .230, and barring an unfixable situation (e.g. a lingering knee injury) it is unlikely he will sustain such a drop in production for an entire season.
I’ve lost sight of wreckard’s point re: the “medical analogy” above, but if he feels that comparing baseball stats to the practice of medicine is helpful then it’s no skin off my nose.
"This is an environment of welcoming, and you should just get the hell outta here." --Michael Scott
by Reddevil on Jun 16, 2009 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
You sure about that?
Better check with a dermatologist first… ;-)
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Jun 16, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it was more your point
That baseball statistics is a pseudo science.
There’s nothing magical about baseball stats. They’re the same as actuarial tables, just not as grim and working off a smaller sample size.
by redward on Jun 16, 2009 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it is
if you tell the doctor that you have David Eckstein in your house, who has been on two World Series teams who have never had heart disease, proving that you will therefore not get heart disease.
by redward on Jun 16, 2009 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your shtick is getting old... real fast.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Jun 16, 2009 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that a no?
I would like to know what my schtick is, and specifically what about it is getting old. Don’t just make a comment like that and run away.
by Wreckard on Jun 16, 2009 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The stubborn devil's advocate shtick.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Jun 16, 2009 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not devil's advocate.
He’s making the argument he believes in. And he is not the only one who believes it.
It was a sound argument without negativity and there was no need for you to take offense.
Free Ronny Cedeno
by Kansas25 on Jun 16, 2009 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How am I playing devil's advocate here?
Look through my posting history. I’m extremely consistent with my opinions. I occasionally even express those opinions with something that vaguely resembles respect.
by Wreckard on Jun 16, 2009 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He does seem to play Devils advocate
But every time I have seen him argue he is still consistent and backs up what he believes.
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living."
by jkobus on Jun 16, 2009 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If one were to passively read through your posts over the last 2 days
They may have developed the same opinion I have.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Jun 16, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Over the past 2 days I've made the following cases
1) That trading Rich Harden is a bad idea, and wouldn’t net you that much anyway
2) That the immeasurable things that happen on the baseball field really have no bearing whatsoever on the value of statistics. Not because they don’t exist, but because they’re not relevant.
Look, you and I just aren’t going to agree on a lot of things – we’re fundamentally different people. I believe in the value of analysis, while like to trust your gut. I think one of the most fun things about baseball is our ability to quantify and predict so much of it because it’s awesome seeing where these things go wrong and where they go right, where you might like to just take the sport for what it is, one day at a time. Heck, the differences go even deeper than that – you’re a SackMan, where I’m more of a boob man. It’s just different strokes, you know?
But I’ve made my points patiently and as fun as possible, and with respect when merited. I guess I’m just not sure where this stern and somewhat patronizing rebuke is coming from.
Unless by “Devil’s Advocate” you mean “Disagreeing with Al?” That seems to be the only common theme I can see with my last 2 days of posting that you might find objectionable.
by Wreckard on Jun 16, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Funny
That your sig seems positive on replacing a guy who did a lot of things right, worked his butt off, was loved and respected by his teammates, but didn’t have great stats, with a guy who whined his way out of one town, is constantly carousing, but had way better stats.
by Old Style & Ivy on Jun 16, 2009 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ohhh... so sad.
You’re upset because we replaced this guy
With a 26 year old Pro Bowl QB.
You’re probably still bitter that we let go of Mike Tomczak too.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Jun 16, 2009 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i went to the same school as him and
he is AWESOME!
just not at football…
by desmoCubbie on Jun 16, 2009 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's Orton in some of his more "classy" moments
But… shhhhh… don’t tell Old Style & Ivy that NFL QBs in their mid 20’s with gobs of money like to carouse and bang chicks.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Jun 16, 2009 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kyle orton
One of the first internet drinking pic people ever, and always my favorite.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You missed the point
But that’s not a surprise. Your shtick is also pretty tired.
by Old Style & Ivy on Jun 16, 2009 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't act like...
… if you weren’t in your 20’s and starting for a professional sports team you wouldn’t be actin’ a fool in the same way.
"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end"
by AndrewJStone on Jun 16, 2009 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey... as I said above
“NFL QBs in their mid 20’s with gobs of money like to carouse and bang chicks.” Orton does it, and so does Cutler.
And both of them work hard on the field… just so happens that Cutler makes plays that Orton can’t.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Jun 16, 2009 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Orton use to.
Since he got married he’s changed his ways.
by sue369 on Jun 16, 2009 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, did you see me that day in the doc's office
and in my car? I thought I was incognito eating my jellies! lol
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
by BigJohnAZ on Jun 16, 2009 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post Al,
Just like you, I am a little of both, like the stats but realize they do not tell the whole story.
Perfect example, what stat could you point to for Sundays game was the game winner? You could say Dlee had a single, Soto had a single, a walk and another single from Theriot. But, for me it was DLee taking the extra base on the base hit to left that ignited the team and made the game winnable. The extra base by DLee does not show up as OPS, BaBip, or whatever stat is popular. But read the comments from the Cubs after the game and they will tell you how that extra base ignited them. Definition of an intangible.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
by KaliCub on Jun 16, 2009 9:49 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
technically, you can measure how often a player takes an extra base...
so stats can measure that. That’s not really an intangible. Just saying…
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, you can.
But you can’t measure a player’s thought process in thinking, “I’m going to do that right now because we need someone to be aggressive, and that someone’s going to be me, even though the chances of me being thrown out are pretty good.”
The throw beat him and he would have been out if Tolbert hadn’t dropped the ball.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But you can measure how often the player makes the correct decision...
Which is ultimately what is valuable. If Lee decides to be aggressive and gets thrown out there, nobody’s happy. Stats can measure good baserunning decisions as well as good aggressive baserunning decisions, which are an excellent proxy for thought process in this particular case.
It’s not a good intangible if you get lucky. Arguing that the thought process was good because he was aggressive and happened to get lucky isn’t a good argument, in my opinion.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Would it be better if the intangible in question was leadership?
If Lee knows the team is pressing and needs a win, therefore he busts it from 1st to 3rd to beat a throw, showing emotion and leading the team. Then his leadership manifested itself in the baserunning statistic, if that makes sense.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 16, 2009 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that's reaching for an intangible argument there...
and again, that can still probably be measured with stats (i.e., how often a player makes a particular baserunning decision in a certain circumstance).
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree on the baserunning measurements.
I just wonder how much Lee (or another runner) is motivated by that “leadership intangible.”
Does Lee make that baserunning decision because his leadership on the Cubs is inherent? Does Aaron Miles not make that decision to run because he’s not a leader on the team and doesn’t feel the need to make a tough play (and because he’s short and has small strides)?
I’m just curious how much it would vary from one player to the next.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 16, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless the leadership shows up in non-tangible ways...
it’s not really an intangible. The baserunning decision could be an example of leadership, but it’s definitely measurable with stats.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"that can still probably be measured with stats"
I agree and I think this is exactly what highly talented scouts do. They do all these computations (recollect their thoughts from what they have seen in similar situations before) in their minds. We call this scouting.
Great in-game managers are those who can do the above in the very little time that is available during a ball game.
by cubsnlinux on Jun 16, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have spotted Lou in the dugout several times this year...
… looking through a binder, which presumably contains statistical breakdowns. He made a point on several postgame press conferences this past weekend noting that Joe Mauer was hitting over .400 vs. both LHP and RHP, which is (apparently) why he didn’t bring in a lefty to pitch to him at one point where you would have thought it would be obvious.
But this doesn’t mean Lou is a stat-oriented manager. In fact, I think he’s quite the opposite.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are we sure those are stats
and not a binder of jokes and stories for Lou to read.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, no, we don't.
Maybe it’s the collection of compromising photos of Jim Hendry.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chad Fox must have left it behind
after his last injury.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he meant for Aaron Miles to get it, but Lou must have intercepted it.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which begs the question, why does Miles still start?
Did he get Howry’s notebook of photos as backup?
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 16, 2009 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It appears so.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Based on Miles appearances in the lineup
He might have his own book on Lou
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Lou is not stat-oriented.....
why did he insist on getting more left-handed hitters this year?
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
by Clutche on Jun 16, 2009 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Purely stat-oriented implies to me that
one pays more attention to individual pitcher-batter matchups, or their performance against RH/LH, than just the “opposite handed” stuff.
If Lou IS stat oriented, why didn’t he realize Cotts couldn’t get LH hitters out?
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
An even better question...........
is why didn’t he realize Cott just sucked, period?
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
by Clutche on Jun 16, 2009 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cotts
How can you say Cotts sucks? He was on a world series team! He has the heart of a winner!
by Old Style & Ivy on Jun 16, 2009 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He had his Howry glasses on?
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not that it's germaine to the discussion
But I’m pretty sure he’d have been safe, anyway.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was really close...
but I believe the ump called him safe before he saw the ball dropped.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's how it looked to me, too.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 16, 2009 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, I thought so, as well.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, I thought he'd have been out if Tolbert hadn't dropped the ball.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought he made it from my angle
The replays made me think so, too. It was very close.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, it was.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually he looked safe to me, the ball falling only made Soto go for another base.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
by KaliCub on Jun 16, 2009 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Show me the stat that shows
a player going an extra base on a play he should not have, in the bottom of the ninth, tie score, with the team struggling, where the ball goes flying out allowing the hitter to take 2nd …and I’ll look it up.
The intangible I was referring to was hustle. And the play from DLee sparked the team. I don’t think you’ll find that play on a stat sheet.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
by KaliCub on Jun 16, 2009 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
All of those things can be measured quantitatively...
with the exception of the “on a play he should not have.” And that part, I would argue, would NOT be a good thing in a player. Hustle is only a good quality if it is in the best interest of the team. It’s not good to hustle into likely outs – on average, that’s going to hurt the team.
Of course, Lee was safe either way, making it the right decision. And that type of baserunning decision can certainly be measured with stats (even down to the level of detail that you described). Just because those stats aren’t readily available to you doesn’t mean they can’t be measured.
As I said, hustle/leadership are only intangibles if they can’t be measured. In this baserunning example, they can be measured.
I’m not saying intangibles don’t exist. I’m just saying this isn’t one of those examples.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was following with you just fine, until...
“Lee was safe either way, making it the right decision.”
I guess you lost me there. A bad baserunning decision leading to safely taking an extra base is still a bad decision. Bad because of the game timing and risk versus reward. Because a good decision can still lead to an out, I’m not sure this example is measured the way you’re implying.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Jun 16, 2009 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was safe either way...
as in whether or not the 3B dropped the ball. Had he been expected to be out if the 3B hadn’t dropped the ball, that’d be a bad decision. But he beat the throw according to the ump.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anything can be measured if given the detail I alluded to..
How about the spark that play gave the Cubs? Theriot even referred to it after the game. Can a stat that showed DLee play show the effect it would have on another player?
I disagree, this play is the intangible that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet. I know you aren’t arguing the neglect able affects on intangibles, but if you do have a link where that play then please reference it. You are arguing theory, I am talking about real world.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
by KaliCub on Jun 16, 2009 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What stat sheet?
The one in the newspapers? That’s useless. I’m arguing that somebody has detailed metrics on baserunning decisions in various settings. You and I just don’t have access to it.
I’m also willing to argue the theoretical (that it can be measured).
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't see
any team having the detailed stat sheet representing the DLee going to third in that situation and the positive impact it had on that game. I will grant you that ball clubs have much more info than anything we can find on baseball reference. Maybe Al or someone close to any club can answer the question whether they have such detailed metrics that would encompass all the variables involved in the Dlee play.
My view is that he took a chance, it paid off, it gave the team a lift, and we won. I don’t think Dlee thought about a percentage thing when he rounded second and decided to go to third.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
by KaliCub on Jun 16, 2009 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's not the point.
the point is, you CAN quantify the results from when Lee has been in that position.
That’s all statistics do.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 16, 2009 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
First, you have no idea what team's have in terms of stats...
but second, it’s absolutely quantifiable.
Also, who cares what Lee was thinking? That’s irrelevant to the discussion. The outcome (and the ability to measure it) is what we’re debating. And in this case, it’s measurable and thus not an intangible.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll add that I also have no idea what teams have in stats...
but that’s not the point. The second paragraph was more the point.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I stated about my knowledge about a team's stat sheets.
What I said was that I would be surprised if they had the detail that would encompass that play.
The intangible thing I’m referring to is that it was a gutsy play and it gave Riot a lift when he came to the plate. My view, an intangible.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
by KaliCub on Jun 16, 2009 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are wrong, and it's because of something you missed in fifth grade.
It seems to me that many of you don’t understand a very simple distinction: the difference between cause and effect.
Statistics measure effect, nothing more. Lee hustled and the effect was that he was safe. This is a measurable thing – he was safe, the cause was irrelevant.
Maybe a player hustling sparks a rally, causing the Cubs to score runs and win the game. The effect – the runs – is a measurable thing.
What you’re not getting is that the cause of that rally – be it hustle, leadership, grit, good diet, sick children, bad attitudes, clubhouse compatibility, encouraging greeting cards received, butterfly wings, astrological alignment, whatever – the cause is not only fuzzy, nebulous, and impossible to measure or pin down what exactly it was – it’s irrelevant. We care about the effect – the outcome of the game.
by Wreckard on Jun 16, 2009 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Obviously we care about the effect-outcome of the game.
But how the players respond to factors during the games is what some of us are referring to. They are human beings(not robots) and they respond to other factors that motivate them.
I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that DLee inspired play helped give Riot a lift there. He referred to it in a post game interview. You can measure the effect of Riot basehit winning the game, but DLee gave him the emotional lift coming to the plate.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
by KaliCub on Jun 16, 2009 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They are human beings(not robots) and they respond to other factors that motivate them.
But you can’t account for and predict for these things, so what good are they when comparing players? You say it gave Theriot a lift but who knows? What if it’s because the batboy said the right thing to Theriot on his way to the plate? We’ll never know all the causes behind these things, they’re really not germane to a discussion of player value, which is what started this whole fuss in the first place.
by Wreckard on Jun 16, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What started this was a discussion about the DLee play
being an intangible or not. But I give you this:
Theriot said. “What an amazing baserunning play he made, and without that we wouldn’t be sitting here talking about it.”
I don’t think he mentioned anything the batboy said.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
by KaliCub on Jun 16, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Productive outs
Where is the stat that shows making productive outs? Right now this team is not making productive outs.
I think that is a important piece to a good team, but very hard to measure.
by Cubsfan Waveland on Jun 16, 2009 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baseballreference does measure productive outs.
man on third with less than 2 outs
man on 2nd no outs
I don’t have the time to take a look at where the Cubs are compared to other teams, but just watching the games it seems like they are bad in these categories.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
by KaliCub on Jun 16, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
IMO...
…they are both important. The real issue is, the skill of the person or organization in interpreting and their philosophy.
Good information is only useful if you know how to use it.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Jun 16, 2009 9:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
We didn't need any statistics or scouting reports
to predict that replacing Mark DeRosa with Aaron Miles was not going to work very well.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Jun 16, 2009 10:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
No that was obvious from the second that move was made
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure I agree with your statement.
If all other positions stayed healthy, the combination of Fontenot and Miles appeared adequate to replace DeRosa at second.
The concern immediately was DeRosa’s ability to back up almost every position.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Jun 16, 2009 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
DeRosa’s value was in his versatility, allowing us to carry 9 good offensive players and still give various players adequate rest (and provide injury insurance for Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez). Theoretically, Fontenot and Miles platooning should have been able to offset the loss of DeRosa’s contributions offensively at 2B (with Fontenot outproducing him against RHP but Miles weighing the platoon down).
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You replace baseball's best insurance policy
with a much lesser player. That was a downgrade the second it happened. Aramis injury or not. The Aramis injury just made it much more obvious that it would have been.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
more obvious than it would have been
not that.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If they had replaced him with say Ty Wigginton, then I would understood the move.
Wigginton is utility guy, who can play the corners on the infield and outfield, and play some second base…. all while driving in about 50 runs a year for you as a part-time player.
But, they replaced him with Miles… who isn’t going to adequately fill-in at any corner position… and isn’t going to drive in more than 30 runs as a starter.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Jun 16, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed...
Trading DeRosa wasn’t a problem IF they had acquired a DeRosa-like player (i.e., versatile and productive) in his place. They didn’t do that, and it exposed the team to greater risk.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly. The assumption was after trading DeRosa the team
needed someone capable of backing up 3B. Hoffpauir arguably could back up RF, LF & 3B, but a backup for third was skipped.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Jun 16, 2009 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And they were so focused on finding a platoon partner at 2B
That, they chose Miles… even though we apparently had an overflow of second basemen in our system (Scales, Blanco). Meanwhile, Wigginton could’ve been starting at 3B this whole time, and platooned at 2B with Fontenot to begin the year.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Jun 16, 2009 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the Miles acquisition...
was an overreaction to his high 2008 batting average and a misconception that he could also be a utility guy. I think both thoughts were misguided.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus, he's scrappy!
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Cubs have more than enough of the scrap intangible at this point.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 16, 2009 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Indeed.
One could even say that they have a heap of it.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
or a pile.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 16, 2009 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
LaRussa used him all over the place because he had very few options. He is actually only able to play second and a bit of short.
What really bothers me is Hendry getting suckered into somebody’s batting average without looking at more advanced numbers.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't even realize
Wiggington could play second. Makes it all even stranger.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Jun 16, 2009 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
Wigginton
91 starts at 1B
122 starts at 2B
547 starts at 3B
49 starts in OF
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Jun 16, 2009 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but you forget
He’s right handed. This one isn’t even in jest; that likely was part of it.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL. Another premise that fouled up our roster
The need to be more left handed. That was their scapegoat for the playoffs. Now, the scapegoat is Gerald Perry.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Jun 16, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perry got shafted; no question
I think even Hendry knows that. But he’s not going to fire himself.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly...
can’t fire the players, can’t fire the manager that you just gave an extension to, and he’s not going to fire himself.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with this
The way this team was constructed we need a versitle guy to cover for some of the injury prone guys.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gee, ya think we could have used Casey McGehee this year?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
sure
but based on last year, there was no way to know he was going to perform this way.
Hindsight is 20-20, and people have been using it A LOT this year…
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 16, 2009 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
well nobody could have guessed that we would need him
He can only play third, so it would have been hard to justify keeping him.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
except for the fact that 3rd was the one position we had zero depth at
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jun 16, 2009 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I played third in high school, don't worry.
And I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express all last month. Put me in, Coach SWL.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jun 16, 2009 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many teams carry a average hitting
3rd base only backup.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most of them...
in the minor leagues.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jun 16, 2009 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe I'm wrong
But didn’t McGehee have to be on a major league roster this season?
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
See the Fanshot section, everyone.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
by dat cubfan daver on Jun 16, 2009 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
hindsight
is 20-20.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 16, 2009 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aaron Miles is a perfect example...
…of why the Chicago Cubs are still lagging behind other teams in their use of advanced statistical analysis. Any sabermagician worth his salt could’ve sat Jim Hendry down and showed him a number of credible projections showing that the Cubs probably weren’t going to get anything more from Miles than they could get from any number of league-average replacements – Bobby Scales being the obvious example. This could’ve saved the Cubs a lot of money and us a lot of aggravation. Batting average be damned!
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
by dat cubfan daver on Jun 16, 2009 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions 12 recs
Dave, you should post that on Bruce Miles' blog
Seriously
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks!
Perhaps I shall – I’ve been terrible about keeping up with Bruce’s blog. He really needs to get on Twitter.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
by dat cubfan daver on Jun 16, 2009 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we rec this enough
Perhaps the green will shine into the office of Jim Hendry.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did my part
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and we're at 3.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 16, 2009 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Done and done.
Shine on, beautiful post. Shine on.
"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end"
by AndrewJStone on Jun 16, 2009 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, all.
A green day is a good day.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
by dat cubfan daver on Jun 16, 2009 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
The overpaying for mediocre/poor veteran middle infielders has been a staple for Hendry.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
except that
Mark DeRosa’s replacement is Fontenot, not Miles.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 16, 2009 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Depends on what you mean by replacement...
Miles is the replacement for DeRosa as the utility player and infield insurance policy. Fontenot is the replacement as the everyday 2B. The value of DeRosa is less as a 2B than as a utility guy and insurance policy for Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez. Fontenot is not that guy.
I think the gameplan going into the season was to get around 100 games each with Miles and Fontenot, with Fontenot playing primarily at 2B and Miles filling in at 2B, SS, and 3B as needed to rest the regulars and platoon with Fontenot. So in that sense, Miles is the replacement for DeRosa.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
alright.
and in that, Hendry was mistaken.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 16, 2009 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Now, had Hendry gotten a guy like Wigginton to replace DeRosa, that’d be a different story.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the answer to this is..
The ups and the downs of a long season, turns and twists, joy and sorrow, grit and perseverance and in all the game of baseball came before all these stats are invented/discovered.
As time progressed and as technology advanced the number of stats that quantify the previously thought intangibles have increased and as a result subjective analysis is giving way to objectivity in a number of areas.
A wide array of manufacturing processes have been automated and in them robots actually do a better job than humans but can we replace a human being completely? I guess no. Similarly analyzing a ball game is both an art and a science. Statistics address the scientific aspects of the game and experience/scouting/feel for the game etc address the artistic aspect.
Some old school scouts never appreciate statistics because they don’t realize that a number of so called intangibles are now tangibles because with new tools/processes/procedures those aspects can now be measured. Similarly people who believe stats are everything think that this is kind of like the chicken and egg analogy. In reality this analogy doesn’t apply because the game came first and then came all the stats.
by cubsnlinux on Jun 16, 2009 10:03 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Lots of "intangibles" becoming tangible...
well said.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with your approach Al but...
If someone legitimatley believes that the argument they are making applies to the subject at hand, and we are on a BLOG, then why arent the people of either side of the argument “allowed” to state their side of the argument.
Some people think the stats say it all, and some dont, like myself or you, but why does that discredit their argument, and why do they have to reformulate their point on a BLOG.
Don't assault me and I won't assault you, because you don't know what I will, or won't, do. I'm going to end it with that. - Milton Bradley 2003 to Paul Lo Duca
by SouthsideCUBSfan on Jun 16, 2009 10:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
No one's argument is discredited...
… nor are they not “allowed” to make it. Make any argument you want, but:
- back it up with facts or evidence, or if there isn’t any, at least support your position.
- don’t use profanity
- don’t namecall.
That’s all I ask.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Makes much sense
I frequent many blogs, and you definitely have the most control over this blog, and thats a great thing.. It is probably what makes this the most visited SBNation site.. nothing gets too out of control…
There are other sites (secondcityhockey, blogabull) that the site moderator swears and uses profane arguments more then the members of the site which only insinuates more out of control content
Don't assault me and I won't assault you, because you don't know what I will, or won't, do. I'm going to end it with that. - Milton Bradley 2003 to Paul Lo Duca
by SouthsideCUBSfan on Jun 16, 2009 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m fine with qualitatively backing up or supporting your comment, but it’s blind and unwavering support for comments that are ill-conceived that get tiresome on this blog. Statistics are clear-cut evidence that shut the door on these ill-conceived notions.
“Why don’t we trade for XYZ?” Well, no, we can’t trade for XYZ, and we shouldn’t want to, because he’s worse defensively and has minimal production value over ABC.
“Why can’t we move Hoffpauir to the OF regularly and Soriano to 2B?” Err, because Soriano’s played nearly 800 games at 2B and is piss-poor at fielding that position, and because for as bad Soriano is at 2B defensively, Hoffpauir is worse at LF?
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jun 16, 2009 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, but
What if Hoffpauir just knows how to win?! Then what?!
by Old Style & Ivy on Jun 16, 2009 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We ride Sir Micah's coattails?
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jun 16, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would never suggest it as a regular soloution...
… but why not try it on occasion till Rami is back? Anything to get Miles out of the lineup.
I’ve stated this already, but i’d rather lose because we tried something new and it didn’t work out than because we stood pat with what we knew wasn’t working. With our solid starting pitching limiting runs thus far, its an easy solution to get some more power in the lineup. The Miles to Sori at 2B dropoff can’t be so big as to outweigh the tradeoff of Hoff batting vs Miles.
I know, stats say this, stats say that. This team has been losing because of lack of offense, not because of bad defense. Why not try it? If its abysmal, move on.
"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end"
by AndrewJStone on Jun 16, 2009 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It makes me laugh so hard I cry just thinking about it...
…this team has SIX second basemen! SIX!!
Miles
Scales
Theriot
Fontenot
Blanco
Freel
Granted, Theriot has yet to play a game at 2B this year, but it is pathetic at how many 2B we have, and yet all of them suck.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jun 16, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would give Blanco the benefit of being a SS
I think that is his natural position, though I would be wrong.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, which is amusing...
we play a natural SS at 2B, and a guy who is better-suited defensively for 2B at SS.
Note: this is not intended in any way to bash Theriot, who has been pretty productive last year and this year. But with his arm, he would be better suited playing 2B. When the alternatives were Miles and Fontenot (or Cedeno and Fontenot), it was a fair argument to say he was the best choice. But if we’re playing one no-hit guy in the middle infield anyway, we should at least do so with the best allotment of defensive players at 2B and SS (which would be Blanco at SS and Theriot at 2B).
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
His UZR @ 2B is off the charts, too. I say we forget about a friggin’ 2B and try to move for a SS, moving Riot to 2B, and get rid of most of those rubbish players. I don’t have any SS off the top oof my head, though, before you ask.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jun 16, 2009 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm all for this
If the chance to get an impact SS comes up, I would hope Hendry does his best to make that deal.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They still think Theriot's a shortstop, though....
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is the same front office
that signed Aaron Miles. I keep forgetting that they don’t use their brain all the time.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if a better alternative presented itself if they would
Remember, Theriot became the shortstop because he was competing with Cesar Iztruis, who couldn’t hit enough to hold the job (could be why Blanco isn’t playing there now).
If a shortstop who could hit and field came along, I wonder if Lou would be so enamored with Theriot at short.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 16, 2009 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Riot's actually a pretty good short stop, which, ya know, with the double-clutching n all, surprises the hell outta me.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jun 16, 2009 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But just for the sake of argument
Let’s say the Mets got tired of Jose Reyes. I’m not an advocate of trading Harden, necessarily, but I’d trade Jake Fox and Rich Harden for Reyes and a low-A prospect.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jose Reyes reminds me of a flash-in-the-pan celebrity.
He’s good, don’t get me wrong, but if he wasn’t (1) playing in New York and (2) all hyper and crazy and did fist bumps and wore eleven thousand necklaces…how valued would he really be?
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jun 16, 2009 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think some of the luster is gone...
part of it was that he is amazingly fast. He’s had double-digit HR and 3B in each of the past three years, with at least 15 triples in the last four years. And of course he’s a high volume (though not terrible high-percentage) base-stealer.
Another part of it was that he emerged as a star really young, with a 115 OPS+, blazing speed and flashy defense at just 23. The thought was that the sky was the limit for the kid. He was developing power and plate discipline to go along with the blazing speed and premium defensive position. He was going to become Rickey Henderson at shortstop.
The problem is that he sort of plateaued. The walks, power, and average all stopped climbing. So now he’s just a really good player at 26, and not the uberstar it appeared he’d become.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Possibly right for both of you
I’d still take a chance on the raw talent, though. He’s shown an ability to harness some of it.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's worked his tail off and it shows
The difference in Theriot’s defense from two years is apparent, and he’s definitely improved.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 16, 2009 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
SS are harder to find...
which is why Theriot has played SS for the Cubs. It’s much easier/cheaper to find guys to play 2B.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well I think we've collected all the crappy second basemen in baseball.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jun 16, 2009 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As are Anderson Hernandez & Ron Belliard.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 16, 2009 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Five of those guys (not Riot) have played at least one game @ 2B this year.
Pathetic, isn’t it.
BRIAN ROBERTS WE NEED YOU
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jun 16, 2009 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What stats support........
the statement that Hoff is worse defensively in LF than Sori is at 2nd base? And, is Miles better at 2nd than Sori?
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
by Clutche on Jun 16, 2009 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The key is the combination...
Soriano is, according to UZR, a positive value in LF and a negative value at 2B. Miles is probably close to a wash at 2B defensively. Hoffpauir is likely a wash defensively in LF.
So you’d be replacing a plus LF and wash 2B with a wash LF and a bad 2B. The aggregate defensive quality would go down. The question is whether or not the offensive upgrade would sufficiently offset the defensive downgrade. I’m not sure that it would, especially given that Hoffpauir’s bat hasn’t looked as lustrous this season.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
makes sense, thanks
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
by Clutche on Jun 16, 2009 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
All I know is
Miles better not start tonight.
"He can't hit, he can't field, he can't run—all he can do is beat you."
by Itchy on Jun 16, 2009 10:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Miles would be on a bus home tonight, if I were in charge.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
na, I would keep him on the team
So he could hand the players cubs of gatorade or water when they come in from the field.. Perfect water/towel/laundry boy
Don't assault me and I won't assault you, because you don't know what I will, or won't, do. I'm going to end it with that. - Milton Bradley 2003 to Paul Lo Duca
by SouthsideCUBSfan on Jun 16, 2009 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I honestly wouldnt trust him with that job
He would probably drop it, or get the wrong thing for each player.
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living."
by jkobus on Jun 16, 2009 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And someone might smash him if they got upset.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zambrano punch in the face?
If it puts him on the DL, then I guess it may suit him well.
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living."
by jkobus on Jun 16, 2009 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you think Hendry would ever outright release him or DFA him?
"He can't hit, he can't field, he can't run—all he can do is beat you."
by Itchy on Jun 16, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be shocked if he did with a full year remaining on that contract
Maybe pleasantly surprised is better :)
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hendry won't admit he messed up
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that just a Hendry thing?
Or are a majority of GMs that stubborn that they cant admit a mistake?
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living."
by jkobus on Jun 16, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its a human nature and ego thing
I don’t always like to admit that I’m wrong, and I think a lot of people are like that. Especially somebody in such a public position like Hendry.
Still, DFA Miles. He will sign with St Louis as fast as possible and we weaken a rival while making our team better. Win, win, win.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dont know
I guess I may be different, but when I make a mistake I like to look at what I did, fix it, and learn from it. But there is no way this team can still think Miles is useful, therefor they need to fix it. St Louis sounds good to me :) Let them deal with his poor play
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living."
by jkobus on Jun 16, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't take long for Hendry to get rid of Gaudin & Vizcaino...
… both of whom are getting part of their deals paid for by the Cubs.
They also dumped Gathright quickly.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the difference is that
Miles is often associated with the loss of DeRosa, at least in my mind. I don’t know about anybody else.
If Hendry dumps Miles he kind of admits a screw up with DeRosa, at least IMO.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe, unless....
… it corresponds with bringing DeRo back.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
Forgot about those three. Dont fully agree on the dropping of Vizcaino though.
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living."
by jkobus on Jun 16, 2009 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't really have much to add on this topic. To me it is common sense to use qualitative and quantaitative analysis.
Opinions are useless without facts to back them up, and numbers are useless without contextual meaning behind them. It boggles my mind how this is just a “new idea” in baseball.
That said, the other day we were discussing the merits of playing Soriano @ 2B. I found out that Soriano has an ultimate zone rating of over 18 points HIGHER in the OF than at 2B. To me that’s a no brainer, Soriano does not start at 2B, he flat out sucks at it. But competitively, maybe Hoffpauir is hot at the plate and needs to play. Where you gonna put him? Yould could throw him in LF and move Soriano to 2B. Now, in a vacuum, Soriano produces much better (defensively) @ OF than 2B, but how does that dynamic work with Hoffpauir in the mix? We don’t know as much about this. Granted, Hoffpauir sucks at defense, but that’s another topic.
Dan
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jun 16, 2009 10:43 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
making that move
Like you said, would only hinder us defensively which, defensive blunders can add up throughout the season, but at the rate that we are scoring runs… something needs to be done, and this clearly would help our offense.. I would rather have Fox if we arent going to worry about defense though
Don't assault me and I won't assault you, because you don't know what I will, or won't, do. I'm going to end it with that. - Milton Bradley 2003 to Paul Lo Duca
by SouthsideCUBSfan on Jun 16, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
At this point, I'm all for PEDs.
Our offense is bleeding strikeouts, RISPs, and softly hit grounders.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jun 16, 2009 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say you could reasonably approximate that
You have the defensive ratings for Soriano at both positions, you have information (with perhaps a statistically insignificant sample size, but we can fake it) for Hoff in LF, and you have whatever offensive numbers you plan on using (career, season, or in a given month if you’re relying on a “hot streak”).
Throw in the 2B that Soriano is replacing, add up the runs gained and lost, and you have your projection.
by redward on Jun 16, 2009 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I'm on your side in this discussion, 100%.
A scenario like that is a no brainer to me, like I said. The only dynamic I’m interested in is to see if Micah’s bat (which has been pretty terrible lately), can help this anemic offense while still making up for some of the defensive woes.
Frankly, I don’t think there’s enough quantitative analysis on this board. This isn’t the only profession (No Child Left Behind, anybody?) or professional sports where statistics and quantitative assessments are becoming commonplace. Look at someone like Daryl Morey, the GM of the Houston Rockets. He’s adopting a mathematical approach to basketball (look here and here if you haven’t heard of him) and has seen quite a bit of success thus far. Stats has helped to go a long way in explaining why they value Shane Battier, for instance, although his traditional metrics look like crap.
Two things have heightened my favoring of quantitative analysis: It’s tiring to read statements like “He’s seeing the ball better” or ""He’ll come around" without anymore analysis than watching the game on TV. I’m not meaning to devalue an observation, field notes, or the scout’s role in player development, but it can take very little knowledge of the game of baseball to say these things. Conversely, looking up AVG/OBP/SLG takes minimal knowledge, too! However, (and my second point), my schooling has helped me understand that I can use statistics to further enhance and complement my observable data of field notes, interviews, evaluation or assessments, etc. It’s more than enough for me to use the latter when it’s a clear-cut decision (at least in my mind), but the fact that we have both in our toolbox is our best measure.
Dan
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jun 16, 2009 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed...
part of the problem has been that baseball has been run (at the managerial and GM level) largely by former players. And those former players tended to be WAY undereducated relative to the folks who typically run organizations. It’s only more recently that educated “stat-geek” folks have even broken into the profession.
I agree that there’s a place for both qualitative and quantitative analysis in the game. Quantitative analysis can supplement/correct qualitative analysis, AND vice versa. It’s just that the quantitative has been so underutilized (or misutilized) for so long that it has been a tooth-and-nail fight to get its place.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As more teams succeed with a proper quantitative/qualitative balance, I think it gains acceptance
When teams like Boston or Tampa Bay succeed by relying on quantitative principles while utilizing qualitative analysis as well, I think more teams look at statistical analysis as a key component.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 16, 2009 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What stats back up the notion that Hoff sucks defensively.........
not a gold glove for sure, but sucks?
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
by Clutche on Jun 16, 2009 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you think?
If you take away the 2nd baseman (the fact I cant figure out who would be considered the everyday 2nd baseman is pretty sad) and put Soriano there and Hoff in left, does the offensive upgrade trump the defensive downgrade? Do the defensive mishaps that are bound to happen with that move add up enough through the year that it loses us more games then we would have if we kept it the way it is?
I think personally, the offensive upgrade is worth a shot for exactly what you are saying. We don’t have much of a sample size, so we dont know EXACTLY how Hoff can be in left.. I say we give it a shot
Don't assault me and I won't assault you, because you don't know what I will, or won't, do. I'm going to end it with that. - Milton Bradley 2003 to Paul Lo Duca
by SouthsideCUBSfan on Jun 16, 2009 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I say we don't.
Are you sure putting Hoffpauir in the lineup would be an offensive upgrade? I mean, Micah’s had his moments this season, but he’s managed only a .741 OPS through 120 PAs thus far. It’s not like we’re talking about Adam Dunn here.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
by dat cubfan daver on Jun 16, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed...
it was one thing when Hoffpauir was OPSing .900+. But he’s quietly faded back to mediocrity as a hitter this season. It’s hard to see him necessarily providing enough with the bat to offset the downgrade defensively – even compared with Aaron Miles at 2B.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
this.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 16, 2009 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Personally
I would rather have Fox out there, or even Reed Johnson
Don't assault me and I won't assault you, because you don't know what I will, or won't, do. I'm going to end it with that. - Milton Bradley 2003 to Paul Lo Duca
by SouthsideCUBSfan on Jun 16, 2009 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to see what Fox could do with some regular major league ABs, too.
But probably not at the cost of moving Soriano to second. Now if Alfonso doesn’t start showing something at the plate, I might suggest DLing him for a couple weeks and putting Fox in LF.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
by dat cubfan daver on Jun 16, 2009 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Serious question.........
does the ultimate zone rating include singles Sori turns into doubles by taking the circuitous route to field a ball, or the fly ball he doesn’t catch up with taking the same route?
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
by Clutche on Jun 16, 2009 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uhhhhh, I would assume so?
I know THT had him rated as the best LF arm last year.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jun 16, 2009 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty sure his arm
is what makes up for those circle routes he takes towards some balls in the ratings.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 16, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
no doubt he has a cannon..........
but if you don’t catch it first a strong arm is wasted
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
by Clutche on Jun 16, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
untrue.
Sori had tons of assists last year, and a big reason why he’s had fewer this year is because people have learned to not run on him. I’d say he holds plenty of runners at first simply because of fear of his arm.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 16, 2009 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
From the best baseball writer in the biz...
Come’s this lil fun STATISTIC…beware, qualitative people.
– So how about this: Carlos Zambrano has hit 14 home runs in his last 282 at-bats. David Ortiz has hit 10 home runs in his last 348 at-bats.
From here, Joe Posnanski’s blog.
Dan
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jun 16, 2009 11:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Simple conclusion maybe, one is younger and one is done?
Both swing as hard as they can.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Jun 16, 2009 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know why I wrote "Come's".
I’m an idiot.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Jun 16, 2009 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Off the topic...
…..whatever happened to the talk of using Fox as DH in interleague games?
Wasn’t the talk from Lou all about doing just that? Has this idea already died?
"Bite my shiny metal ass!" -- Bender Bending Rodriguez
"Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead."
by The Jade Scorpion on Jun 16, 2009 11:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It hasn't been an issue yet...
we don’t need a DH for another week.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it still could happen.
The Tigers have exactly one LH starter — Dontrelle Willis. It’d be fun to see Fox hit off Willis, if he’s even still on the team after all the walks he’s given up recently.
The White Sox have two LH starters — John Danks and Mark Buehrle (and Clayton Richard if they use him that way). Fox could hit a ton in the Cell — it’s a launching pad.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 16, 2009 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rome on Bradley
I just heard Jim Rome lambasting Gameboard for this 2-out flip into the stands and more importantly, for his “That’s life”, “Sue me” response.
The Gameboard era is unraveling. He may just need a fresh start…again. Sad.
"Cub fans like to think of things in catastrophic terms." - Crane Kenney
by NashvilleBlue on Jun 16, 2009 12:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Is Rome considered relevant?
I’m not trying to be funny or mock your viewing/listening interests; just wondering if he’s considered to be much more than a sports “shock jock”.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's exactly what he's considered...
along with almost all other talk show personalities (like Colin Cowherd, Steven A. Smith, etc). He just takes aggressive stances on everything to generate conversation.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
seems like a talk show
host should generate conversation.
"Cub fans like to think of things in catastrophic terms." - Crane Kenney
by NashvilleBlue on Jun 16, 2009 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed - but that doesn't make him relevant...
Talk show hosts are supposed to stir up controversy with crazy statements. That’s how they make their living by saying irrational things to stir the pot.
So the point is that what Rome says should be taken with a grain of salt.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess that's what I was getting at with my question
And it was my assumption, but I never watch/listen to him. “Rome Is Burning” just screams, “egomaniac”.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hate listening to Jim Rome
He embodies what there is to hate about ESPN. Biased journalism with not much of a point behind what they spew.
"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living."