What has Kevin Gregg done for us lately?
by DisCUBbobulated on Jun 16, 2009 11:09 AM CDT
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PrintIn answering this question, think about what realistic alternatives the Cubs have around the league - perhaps a trade or signing to get somone in here. Now, imagine the following pitcher is available, given these stats since May 1st (since June 1st in parentheses)
IP - 18.2 (7)
WHIP - 1.18 (.71)
BB - 5 (0)
K - 18 (6)
ERA - 3.36 (2.57)
Saves/Chances 8/9 (2/3)
Team record when the pitcher is in the game for this timeframe is 13-6 and the pitcher has only given up a run in one of those losses - his only blown save in 1 1/2 months.
Of course, if you haven't figured it out yet, this pitcher is Kevin Gregg . WHen I look at ths information, perhaps I don't see an elite closer, but I see very acceptable numbers - a pitcher who throws strikes and doesn't lose a lot of games for you. I also see a pitcher who has steadily improved throughout the year, which can be expected because of his knee issues and adjustment to a new team.
I for one am pleasantly surprised with Gregg, and believe our bullpen is getting out of it's funk.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Gregg has been an unfair target since before the season
Don’t get me wrong, he’s had games where he’s earned the criticism, but I think some people were angry at him for not being Kerry Wood.
Nice summary, btw. The walks/IP since May 1 are a little high for my liking, but hard to complain about the June ratio. 2/3 for saves doesn’t do much for me, but Soto gets an assist on that one for not blocking the ball in the dirt on Anderson’s strikeout before the home run by Francoeur.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 11:13 AM CDT reply actions
Gregg gets a lot of beef for not being Kerry
Also because he doesn’t have big time strikeout stuff. He has done a pretty good job, certainly he isn’t a major problem.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
Thanks.. I think it's always good to take a long view on players..
“Long view” as in – monthly or weekly numbers – that allows removal of noise and the ability to look at trends. The same process used to look at our hitters reveals that Lee, Soto, and even Bradley are showing a lot of improvement right now and that Fukudome and Soriano are really hurting – meaning that the first three have shown steady, updward-trending improvement since the start of the year, and the others have strongly trended in the other direction.
by DisCUBbobulated on Jun 16, 2009 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Most AB's
You’re exactly right. Interesting how the two guys on the steady downward trend are batting 1-2 in the lineup and will therefore get the most at-bats. That’s an entirely different discussion though.
by BringBackRyno on Jun 16, 2009 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions
I think its the glasses
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Yeah, I remain fine with Gregg being the closer.
But, then again, I’m not as enamored with that job title as many baseball fans seem to be. His K numbers still look good – he’s just had problems with hits and, more importantly, home runs. His BABIP has been a touch high, though, at .316. (Most pitchers’ BABIP sits around .300.)
Gregg’s a guy with decent enough stuff who’s pitched plenty of major league ninth innings. I don’t see him as a big problem right now. I just want to Marmol to get his control back, Guzman to stay consistent and Ascanio to continue developing. My rancor toward Heilman has abated a bit – I’m kinda neutral on him now. It’s hard to say what we’ve got in Waddell yet. Patton is what he is – a Rule 5 guy buried in the pen who really hasn’t done all that bad considering he never pitched above A ball before.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Gregg - Good Closer
I’m very glad his control has been as good as it has been this season. That was my huge concern before the season began. Actually, it’s Marmol who has had the big problem with control. I agree that Gregg isn’t exactly what Bruce Sutter was, but Gregg is a good closer.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
Someone recently said Marmol's curve is tailing too much..
and he’s having a hard time controlling it. Since that’s his “out” pitch, I really hope he fixes it – if he does I think he has the potential to be the elite closer that Gregg isn’t. With this one simple fix, our pitching staff will be ready for October – post season success is very related to getting quality starts and lots of strikeouts afterwards. Our offense, on the other hand, has issues – big ones – but it also has time, and our only goal is to fix this by September/October and hang within striking distance of the division until then.
by DisCUBbobulated on Jun 16, 2009 10:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed.
And this is totally nitpicky, but I’m pretty sure it’s a slider, not a curve.
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It is a slider
Marmol does not throw a curve, but I would say the source of his problem is not his slider, but his inability to spot his fastball.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 17, 2009 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions
Hmm, well, spotting the fastball was definitely a problem in years past.
This season it seems like the slider is just landing too far outside the zone.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
It all goes back to mechanics.
With Marmol, his front shoulder often “flies out” early, causing him arm to either come forward too quickly or to lag behind.
When his right arm attempts to catch up to his front (left) shoulder, then his pitches are often outside to a RHB. When his right arm is behind his front shoulder, then his pitches drift up and in to a RHB.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Bill Potter on Jun 17, 2009 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions
another thing
It causes his release point to drop to a point almost to where he is side-arming the ball, and he is much more effective, especially his slider, when he has a 3/4 release point.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 18, 2009 8:13 AM CDT up reply actions
My problem isn't with the idea of Gregg as a closer...
I think he’s adequate to pitch for three outs coming in with nobody on base. I tend to agree with daver in that the closer role is overrated in this day and age. The “fireman” role in the 6th/7th/8th is more important – coming in with RISP and shutting the door on a potential big inning.
My problem is with the idea that we had to trade one of our better pitching prospects to get a guy to close, when we had some similarly suitable in-house options to do the job (and I’m not referring to Marmol, who I feel was better-suited for the fireman role).
But given that we have Gregg, I think it’s fine to have him close. He’ll go through bad stretches like he did in April and May, and then have good stretches like he has in June. And overall will probably save around 80% of his chances with mediocre WHIP numbers.
I was frustrated by the Ceda trade, too...
…though one wonders if Hendry knew something no one else did. This Fanpost from the Marlins SBN site seems to indicate Fish fans are rather mystified by Ceda’s whereabouts and one post indicates he won’t see the light of day in 2009. Another comment mentions that he showed up to camp really out of shape.
Here’s a CBS Sports blogpost I dug up that poses the same question – where the hell is he? No comments or answers appear. He’s listed on the roster of the Jacksonville Suns but doesn’t appear to have pitched a single inning so far this year. His status is listed as “Disabled 7-Day.”
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If no one else knew that though...
I’d argue he still could have gotten better value than Gregg.
If other teams were aware, then I agree that it’s probably okay.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, I guess it's hard to say.
Maybe word gets around about players with poor work ethics. Or maybe Hendry just got lucky.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
That's part of the job of the minor league coaches
is to scout other teams’ players and to offer reports on their own. So, it’s plausible that other coaches knew of Ceda’s poor work ethic – it could have been something as simple as coaches noticing that he put on weight throughout the year or something like that.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
Jose Ceda is the subject of a new children's book
It’s called Where’s Jose? it uses real bird’s eye photos of areas where Jose Ceda is at, and you have to find him!
Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!
Isn't there a series of those books about Fox?
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Whatever you do...
…don’t look at third base. Because he’s sure as hell not there.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
For that matter,
where is Thumbkin?
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions
i think
he had a pretty significant shoulder injury….
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jun 16, 2009 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions
That could be.
I wasn’t able to find any clear indication of an injury, but I probably could’ve looked harder, too.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
I think we can all agree
We’re glad Marmol isn’t closing!
I don’t think I could handle seeing him walk the bases in the 9th inning….it’s bad enough in the 8th.
I wish he was closing...
but only because I wish he’d overcome his issues leading to walks – because if he does, he’s a special pitcher. An elite pitcher. Incidnetly, I think his problems with walking people are mechanical, not mental – for some reason he’s not getting his dirty breaking pitches in for consistent strikes.
by DisCUBbobulated on Jun 16, 2009 11:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Gregg will do better this year
than Woody did last year.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
Now that, I have to disagree with
A WHIP of 1.085, ERA+ of 137. Letting him walk was a reasonable baseball decision, but Gregg’s not likely to match those numbers.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't know about those numbers.
But I think Gregg will have more saves.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 16, 2009 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Only if he gets more save chances than Wood did...
right now, he’s on pace to get 27 saves in 32.4 chances. Wood had 34 saves in 40 chances. And Wood had a much better WHIP, ERA (which is relevant for a closer who comes in with nobody on base) and hit rate last year than Gregg so far this year.
It’s hard to see Gregg outdoing Wood at this point.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions
well
I got $20 riding on it. So we’ll see. :D
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 16, 2009 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions
For the team's sake, I hope you win your bet
As that will likely mean we’re winning more games.
indeed!
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 16, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Wait a minute,
If Gregg only gets 33 chances to close out a game as opposed to St Kerry’s 40 chances last season, that is no indictment of Gregg. It does not indicate that St Kerry was better, it does indicate the team was playing better last season though.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 17, 2009 8:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Agreed...
that’s why using a team-dependent stat (like wins or saves) is not a good way to evaluate performance. You could use ERA, WHIP, or save percentage. Drewish just chose to use total saves, so I followed the comparison.
For the record, Wood’s save percentage last year was higher than Gregg’s current save percentage. His ERA was lower and his WHIP was much lower.
Not exactly
If Wood had 40 chances last year and saved 33, that works out to be an .825 save percentage. Gregg in 2009 is 10 of 12, an .833 percentage.
As for WHIP and ERA, while important to fantasy baseball buffs, neither are effective measures of a closer’s effectiveness. Save percentage is a much more effective measure of a closer’s effectiveness since it actually measures how well the guy does his job.
I understand that it is much more fun to see St Kerry come in and strike out the side with his high 90s heat and sick slider than see Gregg put a guy or two on and then wiggle his way off the hook, but the bottom line is Gregg is as effective closing the game out as St Kerry.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 18, 2009 8:36 AM CDT up reply actions
We're discussing two different things.
Saves tell you how successful a closer was. Periphreal numbers tell you how well he pitched.
Saves are a lot like wins and losses. Sure, the pitcher contributes to those, but he is not the sole determinant and, therefore, shouldn’t be given total credit.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
saves
A closer’s job is to hold a lead in the last inning (a save). ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, etc do not measure how well he performs his primary function, only saves do. The other statistics are extraneous.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 19, 2009 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions
Put down the Joe Morgan book.
A pitcher that comes in with a 1-run lead and the bases loaded, none out in the ninth does the following:
Strike out
Strike out
Strike out, but a passd ball allows the tying run to score
Strike out
By your logic, that pitcher failed.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 19, 2009 9:42 AM CDT up reply actions
He's being a little too hardline about that, but...
… in terms of wins and losses, yes, that pitcher failed.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I can't agree with that
You control what you can.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 19, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions
That pitcher gets a "blown save"...
… which is seen as failure.
Did he do his job? Yes. Did the team fail to win? Well, we don’t know in that scenario, but the pitcher failed to record a save.
I agree with YOU that there are other measures of success for relievers.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
To say that the individual failed, though, doesn't work for me
Again, the save is a very overrated stat. Say that same pitcher comes in a week later, with a 20 run lead in the sixth and proceeds to give up 18 runs, but finishes the game.
He gets a save. So you’re saying he failed in the first game and was successful in the second.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 19, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Just as in the "games behind" discussion....
… I think you and I are essentially in agreement.
Also, a pitcher in the scenario you posted here does NOT get a save. You can’t pitch yourself into a save situation by giving up runs.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
He's not pitching himself into a save situation
Go three innings or more, be the last pitcher and not get the win, and you qualify for a save if your team wins.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 19, 2009 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions
You're right.
I didn’t catch the “sixth inning” part of your scenario.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
But...
… I’m guessing a guy who gives up that many runs with a 20-run lead isn’t going to be allowed to finish the game…
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
That's the beauty of hypotheticals
Still, I think you get the point.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 19, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions
I am not sayinmg save %
is a perfect measurement, but it makes more sense to judge a player on his primary job and not extraneous things.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 19, 2009 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions
It's a terrible measurement
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 19, 2009 11:52 PM CDT up reply actions
We have to agree to disagree then
Since we are saying variations of the same things over and over, further discussion is meaningless.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 20, 2009 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions
But Wood had 34 saves in 40 chances - not 33...
That’s a higher save percentage than .833.
my bad
So Wood’s save percentage last year is .17% better than Gregg’s this season to date, okay. Do you really think that proves anything?
by lookingdeadred on Jun 19, 2009 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions
No, but the WHIP, ERA, etc do...
They suggest that Wood was better last year than Gregg has been this year.
All I am saying is that it’s unlikely that Gregg will pitch as well as Wood did last year, and presented facts to support that opinion.
As I’ve said, I think Gregg will be fine (or at worst tolerable) as the closer.
by SouthernCub on Jun 20, 2009 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions
Francisco Rodriguez set the record for saves last year
And didn’t have that great of a season. Saves are about as overrated as W/L for pitchers.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions
If the Cubs go on the second half tear...
…we’re all hoping (praying) they will, maybe Gregg will get a shot at outdoing Woody’s save total. But Kerry’s peripheral numbers from last season were really outstanding – they’d be hard to top.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Not to a discussion talking about Wood's #'s last year.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 18, 2009 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions
only if you believe saves are not the measure of a closer
by lookingdeadred on Jun 19, 2009 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions
To borrow a line from Blue Mike,
Reading is fundamental.
You are responding to a thread within this fanpost about the other stats, and you are saying they are irrelevant. Since those stats are what the discussion is about, your claim doesn’t hold water.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 19, 2009 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions
Hmmm,
Those that you cannot convince must have a reading problem???
I believe that save percentage is a more useful tool to compare closers, while you believe other measurements are just as useful. Because we disagree, it does not mean one of us has some sort of reading disability. Keep it on point and try not to make it personal. If you want to make it personal, go to the yahoo baords and have at it. You will find plenty of takers there.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 19, 2009 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions
No, what you aren't seeing is
You responded to a discussion thread talking about stats — and said those stats aren’t relevant.
It’s akin to joining a discussion about the weather and saying the rain isn’t relevant.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 19, 2009 11:53 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm going to disagree there...
They might wind up with comparable numbers THIS year (Gregg may even outperform Wood this year), but I don’t see him outdoing what Wood did last year.
by SouthernCub on Jun 16, 2009 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions
or at least as well
St Kerry was not as good closing as many here recall, he was a pretty good closer. Gregg is also a pretty good closer and a lot cheaper.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 17, 2009 8:26 AM CDT up reply actions
Agreed to a point...
…but I still think St. Kerry’s stuff is much better – or at least it was last year. His ’08 numbers bear that out.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
stuff???
Stuff is why so many here still worship at the altar of St Kerry. Yes, he had awesome stuff, but he could not control his sick stuff all too often. That is why he was at best a good closer, no better than Gregg. As long as Gregg makes good pitches his inability tho throw in the high 90s is irrelevant.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 17, 2009 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions
Kerry Wood in 2008:
11.40 K/9, 4.67 K:BB, .41 HR/9, 1.09 WHIP, 2.32 FIP – and this is all with a .331 BABIP.
He could control his sick stuff just fine. And I said “stuff,” not “velocity,” though his velocity was very good as well.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Yet he still managed to blow seven saves,
so clearly he did have issues with controlling his stuff. Yes, having A+ stuff gives a pitcher a greater margin for error, but it does not mean a guy like Gregg cannot be an effective closer with his more mundane stuff. So far this year, Gregg has been at least as good as St Kerry if not slightly better.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 17, 2009 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions
Hey, like I said, I'm fine with Gregg as closer.
I still don’t think he’s a better pitcher than Kerry Wood – and that has nothing to do with sentimentality. Saves, being team dependant, are not a good way to judge a pitcher.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Yet he still managed to blow seven saves, so clearly he did have issues with controlling his stuff.
I fail to see how blowing saves implies that he had control problems. As daver showed, his command was actually very good last year. Among relievers with at least 50 innings pitched, his BB/9 was the 20th best mark overall.
To be honest, saves and save% is mainly luck. Every pitcher, even great ones, will have some bad performances. There is no evidence that the pressure of the situation dictates when those bad performances will occur.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 18, 2009 2:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Exactly.
A perfect – and extreme – recent example: That Yankees-Mets game from the other day. KRod appears to get a game-ending pop-up but – OH NO! – Castillo drops the ball! Yankees win! And guess who gets the blown save? KRod.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Um
Where did you find that stat at? Tried to find it on my own but I can’t find a site that splits starters & relievers. I’m just looking to put that into context. How many relievers had 50+ IP last year?
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jun 19, 2009 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions
Go to Fangraphs.com
Here is the link to the page I used. It has sortable tables which is what allowed me to do it. Overall, there were 135 pitchers who pitched at least 50 innings in the pen. So him having the 20th best mark makes him better than 85% of all relievers last year.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 20, 2009 1:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Thanks
I’ll have to add to my bookmarks.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jun 20, 2009 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Very Cool
My memories of Wood’s 2008 were way off. I thought he was alot wilder than his stats indicate. Even more impressive was his K:BB ratio which was 5th best. Gregg’s was 23rd worst BTW. Though perhaps Kerry’s 7 HB last year colored my recollections.
Heh, right behind Kerry in K:BB was Bob Howry so maybe that’s not a good stat to rely on. :)
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jun 20, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions
To be clear...
…I’m not denying Kerry had control issues at times last season. Seems like every time he hit a batter to start an inning the Cubs would lose. But if you look at his body of work in 2008, he was a very good pitcher. And I like it when the Cubs employ very good pitchers. Joe Borowski led the AL in saves in 2007. Would you have wanted him as the Cubs closer last year?
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
I wasn't in favor of this trade.
However, as you point out, Gregg has done a good job the last six weeks. I have much more confidence in him now, and I’m sure Lou does too.
Let’s hope he gets MANY more save opportunities!
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
We can't score runs...
so he probably will get alot of save opportunities.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jun 16, 2009 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Got to have a lead to have a save opp
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions
That's what's killing us now
our BP has been a lot better and so has Gregg, specifically. We just can’t grab a lead.
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
Correction, the lack of offense
is precisely why Gregg has had too few chances to save games.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 17, 2009 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes... Save opportunities = win opportunities
And it means experience winning close games, which I believe to be one of those intangibles needed to win in October.
by DisCUBbobulated on Jun 16, 2009 11:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Gregg closing
The problem has not been Gregg, the problem has been that Gregg has had too few chances to close out games.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 17, 2009 8:30 AM CDT up reply actions
Woody's...
… save percentage was like 85%, wasn’t it? I thought he wasn’t doing as well this year, either.
If we could land a closer, we can bump Gregg and Marmol/Guzman back an inning. I we could get another starter (the two I was interested in are hurt in Peavy and Halladay), they could slide Wells to the ‘pen. Then, the Shark is waiting in the shadows. That’s one way to settle the ’pen quickly.
All that said, and I am sure it’s been discussed here, I wonder if the Cubs interest in Pedro Martinez (although Hendry has said it routine) is predicated on the fact that they are looking to sell high on Harden…
I think the pen is settling on its own.
And, as mentioned, I think Gregg is just fine as long as he’s going into the ninth with no one on base. There’s no need to look for a closer. This team just needs to keep pitching well and to start producing runs up to its potential.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
A-
Team!
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jun 16, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions
"I love it when a plan comes together." ~ Not Jim Hendry
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
those are the old guys.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 16, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Wow, you picked TheRiot over Geo for Faceman!
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
yeah, well
I don’t like Dirk Benedict, either.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 16, 2009 7:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Dude, he was the original Starbuck.
(For the record, I like the Kara Thrace much, much better.)
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
He was the original Starbuck
and then he morphed into an angry old man who couldn’t get past being replaced by a woman.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 17, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Did he really have a problem with it?
I hadn’t heard that. I guess it was notable that the original Apollo was given a pretty signficant role in the series and Dirk wasn’t.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
the pen
The biggest problem with the pen right now is Marmol. He is erratic as all get out. When he finds the strike zone he will be the old Carlos and the pen solidifies into a team strength. Gregg is fine they do not need to shop for a closer. Guzman has been a lot better than expected and can spell Marmol from time to time. Marshall has been effective as the bullpen lefty. As for Samrdzjia, the jury is still out on him. His numbers in Iowa are okay as he continues to start. His walks are down, but homeruns are up.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 17, 2009 8:41 AM CDT up reply actions
Guzman in the 8th?
Is is just me, or would you rather Lou bring in Guzman in the 8th instead of Marmol. Marmol’s control is horrible right now. We simply cannot have games thrown away in the 8th.
Last time I looked, the Cubs lead the league in quality starts and are 2nd in MLB in BAA, but 23rd in BB/9. So they need to cut down runs. On a side note, they need to start scoring runs because so far the offense has wasted the great starting pitching that the Cubs have provided thus far.
by Don't Fear the Reaper on Jun 17, 2009 8:58 AM CDT reply actions
Both.
The answer is both. No, I don’t mean both should pitch at the same time. I’m pretty sure that’s against the rules. Marmol and Guzman should split the workload so Carlos gets more rest and neither one of them gets overworked. If Ascanio stays strong, I’d even mix him in there once in a while.
I've committed to tweeting about the Cubs for the rest of the season. (Does that sound as ridiculous as I think it does?) Anyway, if you're on Twitter, you can follow me here.
Guzman in the 8th
makes perfect sense some of the time at least until Marmol gets his act together. If nothing else, it means Lou has two options to set up Gregg, so maybe Marmol will not burn up from overuse.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 17, 2009 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions
I thougt this would be another post
On how someone hates Kevin Gregg and how he shouldn’t be traded. But it isn’t, and I love you for showing this, due to the fact that he isn’t a bad pitcher, and he’s been a decent closer.
"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jun 17, 2009 8:44 PM CDT reply actions
gregg
scarier than dempster and borowski put together.
But not as scary
as Mitch Williams!
"I lof to hit de home ron!"
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