Prospect Talk - Mid-Year Grades
by Archie on Jun 23, 2009 11:02 AM CDT
84 comments
I wanted to provide a forum for some mid season talk about some of the prospects in the Cubs system and possibly a mid-season grade for them in the wake of Starlin Castro's High-A All Star game MVP award the other day.
We will start with STARLIN CASTRO SS - STATS - I remember being surprised along with everyone else when the Cubs jumped Castro all the way to high A Daytona as a just turned 19 year old kid. The discussion at the time was that if he were to have success in high A, he immediately would become a blue chip prospect. I think that has likely happened as he has posted a line of .306/.338/.392 (BA/OBP/SLG) in 60 games and 218 AB so far. We can hope that some more power develops, but that seems likely both given his frame and given that this is a kid playing against players often 2-3 years his senior. Grade = B+ Stock = Rising fast
JAY JACKSON RHSP - STATS - Again, there was a good bit of buzz about Jackson before the season began. Already a top prospect in the Cubs system, the team was looking for him to continue to develop. As Josh has pointed out recently, he has been doing so with a 1.11 ERA in 40.2 innings since May 1. If this continues, I wonder what the chances of a promotion to AAA or even the big club might be? Grade = A- Stock = Rising
JEFF SAMARDZIJA RHSP - STATS - Jeff started out the year poorly in Spring Training and then continued to be a mediocre pitcher for the Iowa Cubs through the first couple of months. Although I am sure that he has been working on his secondary pitches, I had hoped to see a bit more from Samardzija so far this year. His last few starts provide a bit of hope and he pitched 8 strong shutout innings the last time out. However, the 6 hits and 4 walks show that he still isn't overpowering anyone's lineup. Expect to see Jeff continue to learn how to pitch as a starter in AAA and probably get a September call up if everyone stays healthy. Grade = C- Stock = falling a bit probably
JOSH VITTERS 3B - STATS - Sent to Peoria to begin the year after a good showing at Boise last year before the injury, we were told not to be too surprised if he didn't show much power at the beginning of the year, as this is a pitchers league. Well, I think that Josh has done quite well in this department and has quelled any worries about the lingering effects of his injury. Josh's line of .308/.346/.520 with 12 doubles and 13 HR does show that he is driving the ball well. It is also important to keep in mind that this kid is still only 20 years old. While plate discipline continues to be the concern with him, it appears that he may have a Vlad Guerrero approach: See ball, hit ball, doesn't matter where ball is. The concern is whether this can translate into higher levels. He has only 7 BB to go with 37 strikeouts in 250+ PA so far. Look for a promotion sometime soon to Daytona. Grade = B+ Stock = already pretty high, certainly hasn't hurt it.
ANDREW CASHNER RHSP/RP - STATS - The Cubs want Cashner to work as a starter for a couple of years in the minors in order to force him to develop his secondary pitches. I think that the jury is still out as to whether the team sees him as a potential starter in the bigs or a right-handed power set up arm/closer. Starting has treated Cashner well in 2009, however. Although his innings have been limited, Cashner has been lights out so far this year. A 1.85 ERA in 10 starts (although only 34 IP) with 27Ks and a .217 BAA is a pretty good line in Daytona. Grade = B+ Stock = Rising a bit I would think.
RYAN FLAHERTY 2B - STATS - A first round supplemental pick out of Vanderbilt last year, Flaherty performed well at Boise, although against primarily younger competition. This year he got bumped up to Peoria and is not doing well with the change. Again, it is important to remember that Peoria is a pitcher's league, but Flaherty's line of .236/.308/.435 is not very impressive when you see what Vitters has done in the same context. If Flaherty will continue to develop, he might be a Theriot with some pop, but he probably projects more as a super sub without DeRosa's bat. Ryan will need to figure it out at the plate if he is going to continue to progress. I would expect that he finishes the year in Peoria and gets looks at Daytona next year. Grade = D+ Stock = falling hard.
DAE-EUN RHEE RHSP - NO STATS - A 20 year old pitcher signed from South Korea, Rhee had Tommy John surgery in mid-2008 and has not made an appearance yet this year. Maybe Josh or toon has more information on him? Grade = none. Stock = Fell a bit with injury. Too soon to see what he will be after the surgery for another year or so.
HAK-JU LEE SS - STATS - Another South Korea signing, this thin 18 year old speedster is just getting started on his professional career with the Short season Boise Hawks. 3 games in, he has 13 AB with a line of .538/.571/.615 and 2 for 2 in SB attempts. WAAAYYY too early to tell what we have here, but Lee could be a Cedeno type player or much better at short. This is one that I will be watching for the rest of the year. Grade = none yet. Stock = same.
WELLINGTON CASTILLO C - STATS - Castillo is an all glove no hit catcher that really struggles against RHP. His overall .196/.242/.338 line means that he had better be an out of this world defensive catcher if he is going to ever see the big club. Fortunately for him, he glove isn't too shabby, but its just not good enough to carry that bad of a stick. Castillo will need to improve his hitting overall (only .222/.271/.378 against lefties this year) to have any chance of helping the Cubs. Grade = D Stock = Falling.
TONY THOMAS 2B - STATS - Thomas is a soon to be 23 year old 2B that is progressing right on target in AA this year after being jumped to high A Daytona last year. He is having a better year in AA this year than he did last year with a line of .283/.358/.450 His plate discipline has increased as well as he has already come close to equaling his walk total from last year in just over half of the plate appearances. I would imagine that Tony would finish the year out in TN this year. Grade = B Stock = rising modestly.
That is all that I have time for at the moment. I might try to come back and add a bit, but please feel free to jump in with anything else or anyone else that you would like to review or see reviewed on their performance this year.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Nice Post
rec’d Keep em Coming!
Go Cubs Go!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Jun 23, 2009 11:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Sam Fuld
always liked him, even though he is weak in the power department.
batting .279, 0 hr, .351 obp, .394 slugging, 30 BB, 20 so’s, 18 for 22 SB
by cufban2522 on Jun 23, 2009 12:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Fuld's not really much of a prospect though...
He’s basically 40-man roster filler. Solid defensively, decent eye at the plate, and a gamer. But he just doesn’t hit well enough to be a MLB OF.
He’s the type of guy who could be called upon to provide pinch running and late-inning defense, but I don’t see him as an everyday player in the bigs.
by SouthernCub on Jun 23, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
neither do I
but I was more impressed with his running statistics. I know he won’t be an everyday player, although, scouts have always been impressed by his smooth swing.
by cufban2522 on Jun 23, 2009 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can we grade these guys
in Mark DeRosas?
What’s Thomas’ DRO%? :P
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 23, 2009 12:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
or Value Over Miles (VOMs)
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 23, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That makes everybody seem valuable though
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 23, 2009 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not everyone.
if you have a NegativeVOM, you’re obviously not valuable.
Even small VOMs really don’t mean much, just like VORP.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 23, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok
so who, besides Gathright, Cedeno and… Nefi don’t have VOM?
Talk about your small sample size… :P
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 23, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you covered all of them
Negative VOM is a small list of players.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 23, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I feel that we are all a tad nerdier for reading this thread.
well done.
Proud recipient of a hot dog shot from the Iowa Cubs hot dog gun.
by IowaCubs- on Jun 23, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Freel.
now the list is complete.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 23, 2009 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
freel can be amazing when healthy though, more so on defense
by cufban2522 on Jun 23, 2009 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, the Freel we saw for a week or so has negative VOM.
The one playing in Iowa – who apparently has no desire to help the Cubs – could have some VOM, but he doesn’t seem to care too much about the Cubs right now.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 23, 2009 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that's fair
There have to be non-Cub / non-former Cubs who don’t have a postive VOM. There’s a pretty big farm system for MLB collectively to not have another 2-3 guys to list :-)
by chitownhawkeye on Jun 23, 2009 10:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kahlil Greene?
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 24, 2009 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would say Joe Thurston's VOM is roughly 7.89
Jamey Carroll – 12.3
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Jun 24, 2009 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
what would a bucket of balls and a half eaten bag of sunflower seeds equate to in VOM?
by cufban2522 on Jun 23, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
.98
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 23, 2009 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
.96
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 23, 2009 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm really worried that Samardzija isn't going to pan out
I know he is working on his other pitches, but the Cubs brought him up fast because he was improving each time he got promoted. After some success last season, the league caught up to him and I feel like he hasn’t recovered from that. It was probably the first time in his life he hasn’t been the best at his sport, and some guys don’t ever mentally recover from that.
Hopefully I’m wrong though.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 23, 2009 12:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
if someone had the same exact skills of samardzija, there's no way they would be drafted where he was
let’s face it, Samardzija was drafted because of the name. He was a 5th round pick. It’s almost worth taking the risk there because if you he did pan out, the financial opportunities would be huge.
by cufban2522 on Jun 23, 2009 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm starting to think that, but the Cubs scouting director
said they had Samardzija as a top-5 guy on their draft board, but his football concerns made teams shy away from him.
When I read that it made me think what a bunch of idiots we have running this scouting thing.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Jun 23, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Im not following what youre saying
your grammar really muddles your point
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Jun 23, 2009 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
On Saturday night, Samardzija was exactly who we drafted...
Samardzija vs. Memphis Redbirds 6/20
8ip
6h
0er
4bb
6so
Proud recipient of a hot dog shot from the Iowa Cubs hot dog gun.
by IowaCubs- on Jun 23, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The thing that worries me with Shark
is that even when he has very good outings, I don’t ever recall him being overpowering. Usually you will see an elite pitcher have a 7IP 2H game from time to time. I don’t recall ever seeing this from Samardzija. His best games are exactly like this. 8IP yes; but 10 baserunners.
In fact, in his last 5 outings:
8IP, 6H, 4BB
6IP, 8H, 1BB
6IP, 5H, 0BB – good
5IP, 9H, 2BB – bad
7IP, 6H, 3BB
Record 3-2 with 11ER given up in 32IP. A shade over a 3 ERA. Overall, good results and encouraging. But, Samardzija always seems one big hit away from giving up a lot of runs. Now to his credit, often, that big hit doesn’t come and that is his fault as well. You have to give him credit. Particularly lately, he has had good results.
I just wish that we would see some overpowering outings from Shark from time to time. It would make me feel a good bit better.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
by Archie on Jun 23, 2009 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How are the secondary pitches coming?
I don’t mind him not being overpowering if it seems like progress is being made on his overall command and pitch selection. At this point, I’d like to see him stay there for the rest of this year and most of next, then talk about pulling him back up if he’s earned it.
by chitownhawkeye on Jun 23, 2009 10:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shark
Did you see him last fall when his stuff against major league hitters ranged from adequate to overpowering? He’s got some stuff to put together still but he’s young, and was probably hurt by being rushed to the majors too soon.
by Orval Overall on Jun 24, 2009 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has two pitches that are adequate
and that isn’t enough to be a starter. I think that Shark has the most value to the Cubs long term if he can be a starter and I think that they are doing the correct thing by letting him learn and develop these pitches in the minors. I agree with you and I think that he does have the stuff and (probably more importantly) the mental makeup to do so. However, there are some things that cause me concern with Shark. That isn’t to say that I don’t think he will be a successful major league pitcher. I do. I just worry too much.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
by Archie on Jun 24, 2009 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shark start or relieve?
They had trouble figuring out what to do with Zambrano when he was younger, starter, reliever and finally starter again. I am glad they made a decision and stuck with it, and I hope they do the same for Samardzjia. The quicker path to the bigs would be use him as a reliever where his two power pitches are good enough for him to be effective, even highly effective. If they want him to be in the rotation some day, then they need to leave him in the minors to learn how to be a starter for a couple of years before he helps the big club.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 24, 2009 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He should be a reliever!
He has one plus pitch and one good pitch. That doesn’t make a good starter.
Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!
by Cub Style on Jun 27, 2009 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shark rushed?
Maybe he benefitted from being an unknown commodity, and now that people know what to expect, he is struggling. Also, he is being converted into a starter again. He needs to make a lot of adjustments: a third pitch preferably some sort of change-up to go with his two power pitches (fastball and slider), how to pace himself to be effective for 6+ innings, how to get the same batters out 3 or more times in a game instead of the once a game last year, etc.
As you say, he has the tools to get big league hitters out, the question is will he be able to make the necessary adjustments.
Also, I think his progress is hurt by the fact that he was a part-time baseball player until signing with the Cubs.
by lookingdeadred on Jun 24, 2009 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha my bad, typing faster than i'm thinking
drafting samardzija was a risk because his talent wasn’t true to the level that he was drafted at.
the risk was that if he panned out to become a decent major league pitcher, the financial reward would be huge because of his marketability, especially in the chicago-land area with so many notre dame fans around.
by cufban2522 on Jun 23, 2009 1:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think his talent was more than true to the level he was drafted...
He throws a mid-90s fastball with a good sinker. The contract he got was the thing that was due to his fame as a football player – not his draft position. If anything, he was drafted below where he would have gone had he not been a famous football player.
The problem is that baseball is purely a draft of potential. With pitchers, you draft a guy with a big fastball and project out his secondary pitches. Samardzija has the power stuff to pitch at this level, but his off-speed stuff hasn’t developed. So while Samardzija made sense as an early round draft pick, that’s not a guarantee that he’d pan out as a major league pitcher.
by SouthernCub on Jun 23, 2009 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with this assessment
If we paid him like a 5th rounder, and didn’t treat him as a celebrity destined to play for the Cubs, we’d probably be very happy with how he’s progressed since being drafted. Instead, we have 1st round draftee aspirations for him and expectations that are in line with how much he’s being paid. In a word, disappointment.
by madcow256 on Jun 23, 2009 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The consesus
That I heard at the time was that he was a first round talent and fell to the 5th b/c of his NFL possibilities, which were more real than other similar players b/c he was an All-American.
I think we get caught up in thinking all 1st round picks must be stars, if he becomes a closer or even a lock down 8th inning guy or even a solid no 4 starter, Id say it was a success.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Jun 23, 2009 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oops. You are right of course.
Don’t know why I typed that. Must have been an evil twin moment. I fixed it. Thanks.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
by Archie on Jun 23, 2009 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And one guy who should definitely be mentioned
is Chris Carpenter. He’s got to be a top 10 prospect in the Cubs system by now.
by Raisin on Jun 23, 2009 2:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
He is doing well
but don’t forget that he is 23 years old and playing in Peoria; a pitcher’s league. However, he is performing VERY well for his first full year of pro-ball. He is not advanced or behind for his age. He ranks 10th in the Midwest league in WHIP and 5th in ERA. I would not be surprised to see him get a mid or late season promotion to TN.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
by Archie on Jun 23, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Starlin Castro actually got into a couple of major league spring training games.
The organization is very high on him.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Jun 23, 2009 3:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
with good reason it appears.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
by Archie on Jun 23, 2009 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He went 4-4
in the FSL all-star game with a HR. He almost never strikes out too.
churchofbaseball.com
by MJMars on Jun 23, 2009 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Castro and Samson
Castro and Samson have near 460 plate appearances between the two of them with only 33 strikeouts. I realize Samson isnt showing alot of pop, but he’s 21 yrs old hitting near 260 and hit 295 last yr and has only 8 strikeouts in 200 plus plate appearances which is something really to note!! Samson is one of those overacheiving type that may suprise some people when he’s around 23 or 24 yrs old. Pretty good and very young doubleplay partners for the Florida State League.
by Slamdog on Jun 23, 2009 5:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think
Clevenger has a shot at being a solid player. Who knows bait for a trade or trade Soto, either way I think the Cubs got something here.
He has hit everywhere he has been.
"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"
by Grockcubs on Jun 23, 2009 6:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
koyie hill and michael brenly
are to chips be traded. clevenger and soto could be a very effective tandem.
by tim815 on Jun 23, 2009 10:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is Michael Brenly
really ready to be traded?
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 24, 2009 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
no, but he will be
give him twp more years of lkearning how to hit professional pitching, we may have to put him on the 40 man to keep him. or trade him.
by tim815 on Jun 24, 2009 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is Brenly good?
I thought the Cubs drafted him as a favor to Bob.
by dr stabbingworth on Jun 24, 2009 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he sounds effective defensively
and is hitting so far.
there are a lot of bad catchers every year. if he can hit a little, call a decent game, and throw some people out, that would be better than some of the guys we’ve paid for.
by tim815 on Jun 24, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clevenger has definitely been on the rise
He hits lefthanded as well which would certainly make him a nice backup to Soto.
Little power but he takes walks and has moved up the ladder again now being in AAA
by CA Cub Fan on Jun 23, 2009 11:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Chris Huseby is a name no one has mentioned
but has done amazingly well so far this year. His stats at Peoria are 27IP, 25H, 2BB, and 39Ks. That is not a typo as he only has 2 walks thus far. This from a guy who last year couldn’t find the plate 15 IP with 17BBs. If you don’t recall Huseby was a mid round draft pick a couple years back that the cubs threw a lot of money at. He looked like a bust but now at only 21 could still pan out.
by CA Cub Fan on Jun 23, 2009 11:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Also at Peoria
and age 21, is Kyler Burke. I didn’t realize he was having such a good year—28 doubles already with a great OBP. If he could progress two levels in one year at some point, he would still have a chance of reaching the majors at age 24, not bad for a platoon outfielder type.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
by zambranofan on Jun 24, 2009 7:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What gives me the most hope is the depth at a few positions
The Cubs have recently shown a willingness to use their replacement level players from the minors, and give them a chance to be a little better than that. Think of Hoffpauir, K. Hill, Guzman, Wells. That’s a good philosophy. Depth also allows you to make trades. Think Gallagher, Choi. High end guys are necessary to win championships, but the Cubs seem to have a couple of them developing, and depth besides.
As stated by others already, look at the catcher position (by level, not talent): Robinson, Clevenger, Castillo, Chirinos, Brenly.
Likewise, at SS we have Spears (utility), Barney, Castro, and Hak-Ju Lee.
At SP, Samardzija, Atkins, Russell, Jackson, Coleman, Carpenter, Cashner, Rhee
At RP, Stevens, Reinhard, Parker, Gaub, Williamson, Alburquerque, Archer, Huseby
The best part is that the major league team is still relatively young at each of these positions: Soto, Theriot, Wells, Marshall, Marmol, Guzman, and Ascanio are under club control for a few more years. So the Cubs could deal from their AAA or AA stock.
I’m not saying the farm system is terrific. We all know the problems. But if you’re going to have a bunch of B prospects, better to have them at a few positions, for depth.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
by zambranofan on Jun 24, 2009 7:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
baseball america oughtn't rate us
27 next year. too bad outfield is still an abyss.
by tim815 on Jun 24, 2009 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pac Rim and the 2008 draft
are really improving the farm. The Cubs will likely be in the teens next season.
by Raisin on Jun 24, 2009 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
BA doesn't mean much
just look back when the Cubs were 1-3 and what that meant? Nothing.
I want to see guys develop and produce. And if they are stuck on “potential” then trade them to get someone who produces at the big-league level.
by socalbob on Jun 24, 2009 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
Pretty sobbering like usual when it comes to discussion of the system’s “top” prospects. Two things.
1. I would like to know more about the defensive chops of Castro and Flaherty. How are they doing in the field? How is their range, positioning, arm strength and instincts in the field described?
2. Jeff Samardzija is nothing to write home about. If not for being a two sport player at Notre Dame and being insanely overhyped by the Cub brass then he would be talked about in the same breath as Kevin Hart at this stage. He’s just not that intriguing a pitching prospect.
$136 million payroll for a .500 style ballclub. Good work Jim.
by BLou on Jun 24, 2009 2:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Huh???
I know you are predisposed to see the Cubs and anyone associated with them in the worst possible light, but your post is just silly. Samardzjia has a mid-to-high 90s fastball and a very sharp slider. Not all that many prospects have that kind of arm. He is a work in progress but he has a big league arm.
Now, was he overhyped? Probably, but his ability to get big league hitters out in tight situations last season was the main source of the hype, not the Cubs’ brass as you state.
Finally, being a Cub fan seems to make you miserable, so it begs the question, why do you bother?
by lookingdeadred on Jun 24, 2009 2:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
10 prospects
5 Bs or above, two with not grade but highly anticipated.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 24, 2009 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yawn
1. Cub system is ranked #27th by BA. Similarly low ranks are given by the other notable services.
2. Samardizija is nothing to write home about. But if you want to pretend he is something special, then go for it. Also, he does not throw in high 90’s. He projects as a middle reliever type in the mold of Jon Leicester or Kevn Hart. Could he improve upon that? Sure he could. But I won’t hold my breath.
The most intriguing major league prospects in this system right now are Vitters, Clevenger, Castro, Flaherty, Jackson and Cashner. If you want to argue that then go for it.
$136 million payroll for a .500 style ballclub. Good work Jim.
by BLou on Jun 24, 2009 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
okay BLou
i have been critical of the system as well. the last six or so callups have been better than our last traditionally clueless and overmatched ones.
if Baseball America rates us mid-20-s again, i give you permission to reload this post, if you give me permission to do the same if we creep into the teens.
the system may be doing a better job than it used to, even if it means neither of us were sent an email on the subject. all we can base things on is what we have seen. in the last ten months or so, what i have seen is a legitimate upgrade in the preparedness of our kids. if you want to trot out felix pie, scot thomson, and gene hiser as historically accurate for a few more decades, have at it. i permit glimmers of hope in my world when i perceive them as justifiable.
by tim815 on Jun 24, 2009 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/41242-jeff-samardzija-pitchfx
He was in the 96-98 MPH range with his fastballs, topping out at 99. His breaking balls were all right around 84 MPH. If he can keep that 10+ MPH difference between his fastball and his changeup, he’ll be quite effective.
http://www.sox1fan.com/?p=4188
He has a mid- to high-90s fastball with good movement. His slider is up-and-down, it can be either quite devestating or very hittable. His splitter can be UNhittable. But he’s a work in progress… he lacks consistency with his control and his secondary pitches. There is a difference in opinion over his future — will he be a starter or a reliever? The jury is out.
http://thecubreporter.com/2009/02/17/cubs-prospect-list-mania-2009
Jeff Samardzija – Two fastballs with movement that can go 95+. You have to have faith he’ll develop his change and/or slider considering how little time he’s actually been dedicated to pitching.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 24, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's fine Drewish
My opinion on the major league future of Jeff Samardizija is not nearly as optimistic as the original hype surrounding his arrival into the Cub system in 2006. If you want to believe he will develop into a frontline starting pitcher or top closer/set-up man, then go for it. I disagree.
$136 million payroll for a .500 style ballclub. Good work Jim.
by BLou on Jun 24, 2009 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
even though
your statement about how he doesn’t throw in the high 90s is disproved?
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 24, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What I want to know
Can he be an effective reliever with just the moving fastball, the splitter, and an OK slider?
I know he needs a strong third pitch to be a good starter, but I’m wondering if the Cubs can count on him being at least a good reliever as of 2010.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
by zambranofan on Jun 24, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
they seem to want him to really develop
as a starter. Presuming we don’t keep Harden, and I can’t see that we do, that still gives us 6 starters in 2010.
Z, Demp, Lilly, Wells, Marshall, Shark. That would allow Marshall to continue to be the swing man, or Shark could do it.
I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.
by drewishdrewid on Jun 24, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do they want him to develop as a starter
into a starter or develop AS a starter.
IMO, the Cubs are projecting him as a late inning reliever long term, hopeful he can be a starter, but want him to learn as a starter. His role in 2009 is the #7/#8 starter.
Regardless of what he becomes, he will see more situations and probably learn more having to pitch 5-7 innings of a game and watching his off days versus being ready to go in to any game as a reliever in AAA.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Jun 24, 2009 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
if you extend your innings early in your career
you tend to have a better arm later in your career. within reason. results may very.
by tim815 on Jun 24, 2009 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right now, the organization views Spellcheck as a starter
But I’ll stick to the viewpoint he is insanely overhyped and that his ongoing non-impressiveness at Triple A is way too rationalized away via simple statement that he is working on building a fuller complement of pitches. While I agree that is what he is doing, it is an oversimplification of his struggles.
$136 million payroll for a .500 style ballclub. Good work Jim.
by BLou on Jun 24, 2009 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
10+ mph difference?
You want it at 7 to 10 mph, more than that is too slow and hitters will see that and sit back on it, basically the reason he was getting crushed early on. Look at his averages last year, 94.7 mph on the fastball and 85.7 on the split, that’s perfect and why he was getting guys out with it.
Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!
by Cub Style on Jun 27, 2009 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why bother
When you make comments like: “Samardizija is nothing to write home about. But if you want to pretend he is something special, then go for it. Also, he does not throw in high 90’s. He projects as a middle reliever type in the mold of Jon Leicester or Kevn Hart. Could he improve upon that? Sure he could. But I won’t hold my breath” it is clear you do not know what you are talking about. Samardzjia’s fastball last season (pitching in relief) was routinely mid to high 90s. A person who claims to be a Cub fan should have known that.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
--Winston Churchill
by lookingdeadred on Jun 25, 2009 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How is Sterlin Castro and Ryan Flaherty defensively???
My original inquiry got sidetracked. I would welcome information on what is known about each player’s defensive ability…range, positioning, arm, instincts…in the field. Thanks.
$136 million payroll for a .500 style ballclub. Good work Jim.
by BLou on Jun 24, 2009 5:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thoughts
This system has definitely taken a step forward this season. We don’t have any Top 10 prospects, but there are a bunch of guys who have solid upsides. Some names and thoughts on each…
3B Josh Vitters – Not a whole lot to say about him that hasn’t already been said. He’s improved defensively this season and has showcased some impressive power to go with good contact abilities. Right now, the only concerns I have are his ability to draw walks and his health. Considering I like his eye at the plate, I really like this chances. I’d give him an A-.
SP Jay Jackson – He’s looking very, very, very good in AA right now. He’s had a few injury issues of slight concern (line drive off the leg), but his stuff and his control are exciting enough to make me think he’ll be a terrific asset to this team. I’d like to see him sustain his success over the course of a full season, so I’m going to give him a B+.
SS Starlin Castro – For a 19 year old in Daytona, he’s doing a tremendous job. He’s hitting well, he’s been stealing bases at a good rate, and he’s not striking out much. Like Vitters, I’d like to see him take more walks, but I’m not quite as worried about Castro since he plays a higher priority position. Moreover, while there are concerns about his defense, my understanding has been that he’s had more trouble with routine plays than difficult plays. It sounds like he needs more time, coaching, and reps. Those will come. I’d give him a B+.
RHP Andrew Cashner – Love his 1-2 punch and his new-found control. However, with questions about whether he’ll be a starter or a reliever, I’m inclined to be a bit bearish on him. I’ll give him a B for now.
RHP Jeff Samardzija – No idea what to make of him, but I’m more positive on him than most people. He’d get a B.
RHP Chris Carpenter – Like his stuff, still a bit worried about his injury history. If he finishes this season healthy, expect him to move fast. B-
RHP Ryan Searle – Great sink, developing offspeed stuff, and a coaching headache from some of the reports I’ve read on him. Still, he’s doing a pretty good job as a 19 year old down in Daytona. C+
2B Tony Thomas – Began the season on a tremendous hot streak, but has cooled off. He’s looking a lot better than last year, although I’m curious as to whether he’ll be a hot and cold guy or a consistent hitter. C+
IF Junior Lake – Love his physical ability and I think he’ll improve with time if the Cubs can get him to shorten his swing. He still has some growth left to do, but I’m high on him. C+
OF Brett Jackson – He’s starting in Boise soon. As a first rounder with his tools and upside, he deserve some recognition. Could go boom, could go bust. C+
IF Ryan Flaherty – Ignore the batting average. His peripherals are very strong and it seems like he isn’t horrifically incompetent at SS. He’ll be fine. C+
OF Kyler Burke – It’s his third go-round in Peoria, but it seems like he’s finally turning it around. He’s age-appropriate, but his history can be held against him. C+
There are a few others guys who I’d put in there, but I think those are the most noteworthy names in the system. I’m holding off judgment on the short season guys until I see more out of them. Ditto draftees like Raley, Kirk, and LeMahieu. I’m willing to give Jackson an exception since we’ve seen a lot more from him and he has an established history. I really like Rhee, but I’m bearish on guys who are still recovering from arm surgery. Yeah, they usually recover, but after seeing what happened to Luke Hagerty, I tend to worry.
by Outshined_One on Jun 26, 2009 11:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks.
What is your take on Lee (ss)? Seen or heard anything else?
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
by Archie on Jun 26, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lee
Apparently he’s one of the fastest guys in the system (along with Jose Valdez and Tony Campana). He’s stolen two bases so far on pitchouts, which is rather impressive. I haven’t seen enough of him at the plate and in the field to make a call on aspects of his game like power and defense.
He’ll probably make my Top 10 next season and get a B-/C+ grade if he performs as I expect.
by Outshined_One on Jun 26, 2009 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brandon Guyer?
What has happened to him? He has turned it on since getting sent to Daytona but still… This guy was supposed to start for us in 2011 according to Baseball America.
Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!
by Cub Style on Jun 27, 2009 3:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Guess he wasn't ready to skip Daytona straight to Tennessee
Hopefully he keeps it up at Daytona.
by Raisin on Jun 27, 2009 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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