Growing Pains?

by DisCUBbobulated on Jun 24, 2009 10:48 PM CDT

To get a few things out of the way.. The Cubs are still in this. They have a lineup full of people who can hit the ball, an elite starting rotation, and a bullpen full of pitchers completely capable of getting people out. And we're somehow still only a few games out of first in the division and closer in the wildcard. I'll continue to "jump" into game threads more frequently than I will off of ledges. But what I'd like to jump into now is an unsurprising discussion about Cubs problems with RISP and bullpen walks and an attempt at a more enlightening take on why I think this is helping them be a better October team.

So, for the bad news we all know, or at least suspected:

CATEGORY: Numbers 2009 RANK 2008 #'s/RANK

BA (RISP) .223 30 .279/7

Relief BB/INN .63 30 .38/t6

Source: ESPN Aggregate Statistics

Of course, the first thing that sticks out, is that the Cubs were actually very good in both of these categories last year... near the top in all of baseball. What's even more alarming about this year, is how bad they really are. The second worst team in baseball RISP is Arizona at .228. After tonight, the Cubs will drop to .219. Relief BB/INN is actually even a worse story, with the next worse team, Washington at .57 BB/INN. In these two key categories, the Cubs are in a league by themselves.

If I can say something I think we'll all agree on, it doesn't really matter at this point if the Cubs win the regular season - it matters if they win in the post-season. So, how'd the last couple of years go for that? I calculated this from the postgame logs on yahoo sports, so I think it's pretty close to this (if someone has better info, feel free to update):

CATEGORY: 08 Postseason 07 Postseason

BA (RISP) 5/26 (.192) 3/24 (.130)

Relief BB/INN 2/10.2 (.20) 6/12.2 (.47)

From these numbers, you can see that the Cubs did not hit in the clutch in the last two post-seasons, but that their releif pitching didn't walk a lot of guys (at least not in 2008). Instead, both the starters and relievers got smoked with hits. This is a team that, under pressure, didn't produce, whether throwing or hitting the ball - and brings me to my next point.

The Cubs are under pressure to win this year - they have a big payroll and bigger expectations. They play under pressure to win every game, and I do not question the intensity they have demonstrated this year - I think it's been there (look at their response to the walk-off wins last week if you doubt this). Instead I think they haven't demonstrated that they can consistently perform under this pressure. They clearly haven't learned how to get the big hits, the big strikeouts, the big rallies, when they need them - at least not yet.

And that is why I think this season, as difficult as it has been to watch, is creating the exact kind of pressure situations that the Cubs will need to learn how to win in October, the only time it really counts. Based on some very gutsy starting pitching performances and some signs of life in their bullpen (still a work in progress but getting better), I really like our pitching for the most part. The hitting is obviously another story.

Games like tonight's very bad loss to Detroit are growing pains. The take-home message for me? The Cubs are either going to learn how to respond in these situations and win, or they're not. If they do, then they will give us an entertaining ride come October. If they don't learn how to deal with this, I'd rather not see a single game in October - they don't deserve to be there in the first place.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Comments

Nice

I agree that I would rather be out of it now than deal with the pain of the last two years. “When they left the hurt was so deep…” Quick what movie am I horribly ripping off? Anyway – it seems like this team – be it better or worse – just isnt getting the hits when they need it or capitalizing on the lucky breaks – error earlier in the game by the 3rd baseman and I dont think we scored a run comes to mind – or runners on 1st and 2nd and no out yet we manage no runs or only 1.
The big differnece between this years and last years team is that this year we manage to fumble the tough situations wereas last year no matter the deficit in the 7th I knew we would battle back and make it a game. This year we struggle to make it a game out of the shoot. I think the ’08 Cubs will forever go down in my books as the team that underperformed in the playoffs the most out of any Cubs team I remember (project ahead 60 years and I am a crusty old man in his rocker).

I saw you in that coffee shop, breaking the fifth commandment. Congress passes these things for a reason, Lois.

by hansman1982 on Jun 24, 2009 10:57 PM CDT reply actions

Yes.. this team's playing tight, with poor results..

Last year, they had a few ups and downs, but mostly coasted. Maybe they kept the dugout looser with better chemistry, or maybe they just didn’t spend enough of the year playing .500 ball to understand the pressure of underperforming. What I’d like to see is a team that plays well in tight situations, with a bit of consistency – that will breed confidence. And confidence in those situations will breed…

Well, we’ll see if any of it comes to pass.

by DisCUBbobulated on Jun 24, 2009 11:04 PM CDT up reply actions

I knew they stranded tons of runners.

but I didn’t realize they were THAT BAD. Thanks for the interesting (although depressing) stats.

I am becoming far less optimistic as the weeks go by, so I hope you are right and these are growing pains.

"That's what you live for. You live for the opportunity and when that day comes, you better be ready," Soto said. "I tried to make sure that whenever they gave me a chance, I was ready and I knew I had to take advantage of the opportunity."

by Madison Cub Fan on Jun 24, 2009 11:42 PM CDT reply actions

Obviously, I'm kind of a numbers freak.. but maybe the mental aspect tells the bigger story..

These guys clearly have all the tools and talent. For whatever goofy reason, they’re not translating all of those formidable gifts into confidence.

by DisCUBbobulated on Jun 25, 2009 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions

They have to learn?

I thought they had learned how to play under pressure when they went to Milwaukee battling for the division title late last season and swept a 4 game series from the Brewers whilst looking utterly dominant.
Obviously something else got to them come October.
I’m beginning to understand why Lou just throws his hands up in the air and says “what can you do?”

by kiwibob on Jun 25, 2009 12:50 AM CDT reply actions

this team

isn’t identical to that team. No Edmonds, no Derosa, long-term Rami DL, no Woody… I’m just saying. Things do change.

I'm a Cubs FANATIC. They are my team, through thick and thin. When they play over their heads, and when they play under the gutter. When they win the division, and then get swept in the division series. When they get no-hitters and when they blow no-hitters. And some day, when they go all the way and get those rings. This is the kind of fan I am.

by drewishdrewid on Jun 25, 2009 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions

That something else...

is that the team psyched themselves out. They were scared last year when facing Manny and Co. The team has ZERO confidnce entering the playoffs.

by BadDecisions on Jun 26, 2009 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions

We need to get back into the FLO

gimme a break, we have too many guys with diff’rent strokes. The Cubs need to get down to earth and play like bosom buddies. The team will be the head of the class and hear the cheers. It is a small wonder we have been worrying over who’s the boss. So lets not worry about whats happening now because thats the facts of life.

A child of five would understand this. Send someone to fetch a child of five.

by copes006 on Jun 25, 2009 12:15 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs