FanPost

Growing Pains?

To get a few things out of the way.. The Cubs are still in this. They have a lineup full of people who can hit the ball, an elite starting rotation, and a bullpen full of pitchers completely capable of getting people out. And we're somehow still only a few games out of first in the division and closer in the wildcard. I'll continue to "jump" into game threads more frequently than I will off of ledges. But what I'd like to jump into now is an unsurprising discussion about Cubs problems with RISP and bullpen walks and an attempt at a more enlightening take on why I think this is helping them be a better October team.

So, for the bad news we all know, or at least suspected:

CATEGORY: Numbers 2009 RANK 2008 #'s/RANK

BA (RISP) .223 30 .279/7

Relief BB/INN .63 30 .38/t6

Source: ESPN Aggregate Statistics

Of course, the first thing that sticks out, is that the Cubs were actually very good in both of these categories last year... near the top in all of baseball. What's even more alarming about this year, is how bad they really are. The second worst team in baseball RISP is Arizona at .228. After tonight, the Cubs will drop to .219. Relief BB/INN is actually even a worse story, with the next worse team, Washington at .57 BB/INN. In these two key categories, the Cubs are in a league by themselves.

If I can say something I think we'll all agree on, it doesn't really matter at this point if the Cubs win the regular season - it matters if they win in the post-season. So, how'd the last couple of years go for that? I calculated this from the postgame logs on yahoo sports, so I think it's pretty close to this (if someone has better info, feel free to update):

CATEGORY: 08 Postseason 07 Postseason

BA (RISP) 5/26 (.192) 3/24 (.130)

Relief BB/INN 2/10.2 (.20) 6/12.2 (.47)

From these numbers, you can see that the Cubs did not hit in the clutch in the last two post-seasons, but that their releif pitching didn't walk a lot of guys (at least not in 2008). Instead, both the starters and relievers got smoked with hits. This is a team that, under pressure, didn't produce, whether throwing or hitting the ball - and brings me to my next point.

The Cubs are under pressure to win this year - they have a big payroll and bigger expectations. They play under pressure to win every game, and I do not question the intensity they have demonstrated this year - I think it's been there (look at their response to the walk-off wins last week if you doubt this). Instead I think they haven't demonstrated that they can consistently perform under this pressure. They clearly haven't learned how to get the big hits, the big strikeouts, the big rallies, when they need them - at least not yet.

And that is why I think this season, as difficult as it has been to watch, is creating the exact kind of pressure situations that the Cubs will need to learn how to win in October, the only time it really counts. Based on some very gutsy starting pitching performances and some signs of life in their bullpen (still a work in progress but getting better), I really like our pitching for the most part. The hitting is obviously another story.

Games like tonight's very bad loss to Detroit are growing pains. The take-home message for me? The Cubs are either going to learn how to respond in these situations and win, or they're not. If they do, then they will give us an entertaining ride come October. If they don't learn how to deal with this, I'd rather not see a single game in October - they don't deserve to be there in the first place.

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